25 Comments

The system is going to have to produce players to fill some of these gaps: especially 2B and SP. The cannot cover all these positions with free agents, and IMO, it would be foolish to try. They will end up dispersing money to 4 or 5 washed up veterans who produce little or no tangible results... i.e. a repeat of last year.

That we are in year 5 of the Cherington administration and still have so many holes to fill and no prospects obviously ready to step up and fill these holes is an unhappy situation. How is it that after 5 years, we still do not have a competent firstbaseman? It really is not that hard to get a couple competent players. The Pirates just make it look like mission impossible every year.

Compare Cherington year 5 with that of Elias, hired exactly 1 year before. Can anyone see the Pirates winning 101 games next year? It is not as though Elias broke the bank to buy his way out of the cellar. The Orioles' payroll is unlikely to be that much higher than that of the Pirates next year.

Expand full comment

Sure they could. Brandon Drury (trade) can cover 1b and 2b when Endy or Joe have it. Paxton + Montas + Severino wouldn't cost that much.

Expand full comment

Don't be surprised to see Nick Gonzalez at 1B next year. Paxton and Severino are two mundane signings that any normal team could make en passant, The Pirates will make it appear to be a herculean struggle to bring in 2 bottom-of-the-rotation guys like these. Thing is... it is not the "bottom of the rotation" that needs filled out. It is the top.

Expand full comment

James Paxton's Steamer projection would have been our second best pitcher last year.

Expand full comment

I like Paxton, but he can never stay healthy or put up a respectable number of innings in a season. It would be unwise to count on him for more than 15-20 starts of 5 innings. This makes him more of a filler piece than rotation fixture.

Expand full comment

His injury history is why we'd have a shot to sign him in the first place.

Expand full comment

The Pirates should have the money to get anyone they want, with a few possible exceptions. All the tanking and payrolls in the 50 million-dollar range should give them a warchest to drop some cash on a big-ticket free agent. I still say they should get a top-of-the-line starter and hope the system can fill in the depth with some combination of Ortiz, Priester, Falter, Jones, Contreras, et al. Really, though, they should have enough to get a big-ticket guy and a guy like Paxton who might at least cover some innings until Brubaker gets back. Whatever the case, I think we are in a redux of last year, where they sign a bunch of crap to be traded off at the deadline for more crap.

Expand full comment
Nov 26, 2023·edited Nov 26, 2023

seems as though two of Ortiz, Falter, Jackson, Kranick, Contreras and/or Priester are locks to open the year in the rotation

i suppose I would rather see one of them knocked around than a discount veteran

Expand full comment

That’s terrifying.

Expand full comment
Nov 26, 2023·edited Nov 26, 2023

two of Skenes, Jones, Wolf are ready by June 1 ?

and Burrows and Brubaker´s tentative dates of return are around August?

maybe Ashcroft, Bubba, Harrington and Solo in September?

seeing that Ortiz, Falter, Jackson, Kranick, Contreras and Priester are already on the 40 man roster, are we really just blowing smoke and not one dollar will go to starting pitching in the next four months?

Expand full comment
Nov 26, 2023·edited Nov 26, 2023

while it does not seem like it at the moment, (almost) each one of those mentioned dudes has the capacity to surpass the output of Oviedo´s 2023 performance

Expand full comment

If he comes back healthy in 2025 they should just let him let it rip as a reliever. Oviedo.

Expand full comment

realistically, we could easily see just a repeat of the 2023 offseason expenditures

Santana at $6.75mil for defense and platoon with Triolo and Endy

Hill at $8mil to pitch innings at least until June

Cutch at $5mil to DH and pretend to play right field for a month

I guess one more starting pitching at the $10mil we sent to Hedges, Choi and Jarlin last year - probably some (most) of that money will just go to arbitration increases

Expand full comment

Sad news for Oviedo, but having the procedure performed now could make him a possibility to return to start the 2025 season. Missing from the people you listed, I would add Jared Jones, Andre Jackson, and Bailey Falter. My hope is for the Pirates to use what they already have, meaning Keller, Jones, Priester, Jackson, Falter, Contreras, and Ortiz. We have better D and hitting than we did to start last year, and these guys will just have to step up. In 2022 Ortiz started 15 games, Contreras started 11 games, Priester started 8 games, and Jackson and Falter both started 7 games for the Pirates.

Still hard to figure the input of guys coming back off of TJ surgery like JT Brubaker (33 Starts in 2021 and 2022), and Mike Burrows, who was thought to be a possible add to the Rotation in 2022. Both had their surgeries in April 2022 and the norm is missing 14-16 months, which means June, July, or August.

Not sure the Pirates need to dip into the FA market for anything this year. Gilberto Celestino is a strong defensive CF, hits R and hits RHP's better than he does LHP's. He was out of options, but I hope being signed to an MiLB Contract eliminates that issue. If he does well in ST, I'd have him in the starting OF lineup between Suwinski and Reynolds.

Expand full comment
author

I like Falter and Andre Jackson. But if either are in the rotation to start the year I think it’d be a let down. That being said, I can see a scenario where they do and are the ‘placeholder’ for someone in the minors (I’d assume Skenes).

That’d also be disappointing. Don’t care how hyped the prospect is, he’s thrown 6.2 pro innings, and honestly I was never blown away by any of them.

As far as Jones, he’s got a ways to go I feel like. The only way we see him earlier than Aug/Sept, is injuries or if he makes the move to the bullpen.

Expand full comment

I think they should take a shot on James Paxton and see if they can get 120-150 IP from him while waiting on prospects

Expand full comment
author

I think in year 5 under Cherington the thought process should be to win, not wait on prospects and hope they help win. If Paxton gives them the best chance of winning, do it. At this point, I think the front office needs to get past the 'hold the spot for the prospect' mindset.

Make the prospect force his way in there, it makes them, and your team, better.

Expand full comment

One way those prospects can help win is by trading them away. Not speaking specifically of pitching because you can never have enough pitching, but use the plethora of middle infielders to fill holes. It's time to start winning games on a better than .500 rate. Bullpen games are why we are where we are with this rotation. Falter shouldn't be anywhere near PNC Park in 2024. If he is, Cherington either failed to properly address the most glaring need to improve this team or the transaction page is loaded with injuries 10-12 deep.

Expand full comment

Paxton isn't an innings eater but he does have a history of high quality, low volume innings. We also need a LHSP. There are probably 450 or so innings that need to be accounted for so they need more than one SP for sure.

Expand full comment
author

I'd actually be ok with someone like that. Think Falter/Jackson can be good in a small multi-inning role. So if Paxton can get 4/5 strong innings, the other two can follow up for 2 of their own, bullpen wraps it up, I'd be good with that.

Expand full comment

Falter is a nice depth piece IMO. He can give you long relief in non leverage situations out of the pen to start the season and should capable of filling in as a spot starter or even every 5th-day starter if injuries mount. It would be nice if he could remain in the long relief role all season, but we all know those guys eventually end up starting 10-15 games.

Expand full comment

Even this is too extreme to be considered a good parody.

Expand full comment