Yeah, but the Pirates have to survive the weeks between now and Super Two to have a realistic chance. If dudes like Davis, Cruz, and Hayes keep improving on offense starting in April, the odds will be better.
I'm not especially sold on the current parts of the rotation that aren't named Keller and Jones, though. To make a Wild Card this year, a lot of things have to hit and hit early. I mean, that describes almost every playoff run if you're not the Braves or the Dodgers, but still. A lot has to go the right way and right away.
I've been long on the window opening in 2025 since GMBC took over. Nothing has forced me to update the prior assumptions that feed that theory.
Is it that tall of an order to survive “weeks” in this division when most prognosticators for the division have the winner at 85 games? If get off to a similar start as last year (let’s say 16-12 over their first 28, four off last years pace), they’re well within range. Did you trust last years rotation less than this years? I did.
Having watched the hitting dry up the last couple of weeks of ST, I don't have a lot of faith that we're not doing another round of the Andy Haines hitting clinic. If that's the case, then the pitching is going to have to be beyond spectacular.
That said, Jones is the only distinct improvement in the rotation.
Martin Perez . . . I can see the argument, especially if you're a buyer that he's never really pitched in a pitcher's park. That 2022 season with the Rangers has to be the flukiest single SP season I've seen in a while, but the Pirates don't need him to be that good.
Marco Gonzales . . . oof. He hasn't recorded a good xFIP in a full season since 2018. Admittedly, Oscar Marin's pixie dust has worked for all aged leftie starters so far.
Bailey Falter is a just a no for me. I don't get the thesis for him starting at all. Not even with the Pirates limited options. Hell, I'd rather give Ortiz another look as a starter if putting Falter out there every five days is where things stand. It's not a good sign that this guy is the 5th SP. TBH, peripherals say Quinn Priester won the job over Falter.
On balance, I don't think there's enough there there for the rotation to carry this team. Factoring in injury expectations, I'm not even sure that changes when Skenes arrives. I don't think this team will have a rotation that can carry it probably until we're talking about Chandler and Solometo in the majors for good.
So some of this is based on ST numbers? That’s always risky.
As for the rotation last year, I was highly skeptical about VV and Hill and that turned out somewhat good. So even though Marco has looked horrid, I’ll reserve judgment till the lights go on. I wouldn’t depend on Bubba/Solometo being staples of the rotation either. Young arms don’t all work out like that.
Falter, I don’t understand either. He genuinely doesn’t look like a starter at all and I think Ortiz should have that spot. Maybe some of Ortiz moving to the pen is because of all the injuries there in ST and they thing he’s better suited to move back into the rotation than Falter? I dunno.
Well... I think many of the expectations on here are that Cruz and Davis will add to the lineup, and they will be a good offensive team with bad starting pitching, at least for a while. The problem with this thinking is that everyone is looking at Hayes' and Suwinski's 2 best months as pros, Triolo's .420 BABIP, a career year for Connor Joe, and expecting them all to do that for an entire season (or another season in Joe's case). I think Suwinski will be good this year. I think Hayes will be OK, but not a much above-average bat. Triolo will do his thing and hit .290ish, maybe .300, but without a lot of power. It's an OK lineup that would be enough if they can stay relatively healthy, and they could make a wild card or division run if they had a solid rotation with depth in the minors. Unfortunately, the depth they do have at pitching in the minors will probably be needed to fill out the rotation and is not depth at all actually. Losing any of the major players: Reynolds, Keller, Suwinski, Hayes, or Cruz pretty much buries them.
What?? The first thing I thought was AM is playing an April Fools joke! I still don't believe this news! Montgomery to Pirates? $25M? Can't be. Must be a dream......
Montgomery must’ve prioritized contention over financial security. The ironic part is AZ with him doesn’t help their playoff chances as much as he would help the Pirates, or any other NL Central team, win the division.
In other news, Boras had an epically bad FA this winter.
Said it before, the luxury tax is actually working espec for multiple year year offenders. There's no economic model that justifies any club who wants to add a $25M pitcher that ends up costing them $40-50M because of the tax penalty. IDK, maybe Boras mis-judged the market but I don't think so......he knows the economics better than most.
As I mentioned on another thread, I think Boras seriously underestimated the impact of the RSN meltdown and clubs we hesitant to spend super large money on most of the available players this off season. Only a couple of players got crazy money.
I don’t necessarily blame Boras exclusively for FA’s not getting what comparable players have received in the most recent years. I think Owners/GM’s take note that the Mets and Padres both “broke the bank” last year and missed playoffs. Plus they also see low spending teams like the Rays and Orioles finish with more wins than almost every big spender by developing and trading for cheap talent. Lastly they also see how wildcard teams like Phillies, Rangers, and Dbacks win pennants and a World Series as a wildcard team.
It appears the general consensus is with more teams in playoffs, it’s not necessary to spend to the top of market to make the playoffs, nor does having the best 162-game roster mean success in the month of October.
I think you mostly hit the nail on the head. One other point I’d add: the days of teams wildly overpaying for a guy based on a career year that’s not supported by the secondary metrics are mostly over. Sure you have a few old school teams that still spend in that manner, like the Angels, but relying on those few teams to pony up the dollars is a foolish strategy.
Yes. I think Boras is living in the world of 2006, where there was no Trackman data and low interest rates had everyone projecting massive revenue expansion each year into the future endlessly.
We are literally one year removed form Boras leading the highest Free Agent spending period of any professional sports league in the history of human civilization.
The biggest contracts, including extensions went to Machado, Devers, Judge and Turner and they aren’t even Boras clients. Machado uses MVP Sports Group, Turner is a CAA client. Judge uses David Matranga. Devers uses Rep 1 Sports. That’s well over a third of what teams spent that offseason, and it wasn’t Boras getting the deals. One of biggest clients that offseason, Correa, lost about $35 million by not going with the Tigers $275 million offer the prior offseason.
He has a history of costing guys money. Choo and Correa are two great examples. I suspect we will find out later that Montgomery had a decent offer on the table.
He also has an incredible history of getting guys more money than was predicted or for really long term sweet deals. Players aren't lining up to use him as an agent because he has a bad track record.
In a lot of instances it’s guys that would have been paid anyways. Gerrit Cole didn’t need an agent to drum up his market. The market will tell you what he’s worth. So he plays his games with guys like Cole and Harper and it predictably works, and everything thinks he’s a genius. Problem is, teams don’t *need* guys like Bellinger/Chapman. They aren’t overpaying by 30%, and they surely aren’t going to indulge your negotiating tactics in the process. Sure guys do line up to use him, and he has gotten some good deals over the years, like I’m sure most agents have. But I think most people overvalue the “table pounding/browbeating” style of negotiation that Boras employs. That’s especially true of guys like Bellinger, Chapman, Snell etc who are going to get more need with honey than vinegar.
I look at it this way, he gets the majority of high profile clients and players in general and if they were just 'getting paid anyway' then he wouldn't have such a high percentage of players. Without being 'in the room' myself at some point if he was not out performing other agents his clientele would be reduced. Is he annoying etc. yes.. but from the players perspective he also advocates beyond just his clients players getting their 'fair' share. Does he have a perfect record of course not but the people who ultimately 'grade' him sure seem to be lining up to use him vs. other agents so I do think his methods have worked and in many ways have stood the test of time.
That assumes that people always make choices that are in their best interests though. And we know that isn’t true. If Chapman had made the choice that was in his best financial interest he would’ve signed with the Blue Jays. I think it’s important to recognize these guys are ball players, they aren’t financial advisors, etc. Just because they are extremely skilled athletes and make a lot of money doing so, doesn’t necessarily mean they are anymore skilled at making financial judgments than a working stiff like me. They employ agents based on advice received from others, personal biases etc. None of this is to say that Boras is an awful agent who losses money for all his clients. But I do question whether he’s the best agent for everyone, particularly some of these mid tier guys.
I don't disagree one bit with your last sentence but would drop mid tier and just say he (or anybody) will not be the best agent for everyone. The net to me is that he has been doing this 'forever' for players of all pay scales (we just hear more about the big $) with a lot of competition so any question of his methods or success or possible demise because of one year just doesn't ring true to me. Not all players make wise decisions but many do and many actually have smart people advising them. Players keep signing up, so he is doing something right (and maybe better).
Montgomery or Kurtz would be great at pick 9. JJ still might fall if he doesn't get back soon and perform right off.
I really like the potential of this draft if they target corner sluggers. I'm big on Blake Burke(Tenn), Jared Jones(Lsu), Corey Collins(UGA), and the catcher from Campbell Grant Knipp.
I wouldn't mind if they drafted those types after pick 9(best available) and saved money for a prep player in round 11 and 12. They should be able to save some money because none are currently projected in the top 50, most don't touch top 100. Collins is a senior but corner bats is the value area in this draft.
Basically pick sluggers through round 4. I wouldn't be upset with a prep player thrown in those first 5 picks. Rounds 5 through 10 add to Ben's Bullpen Brigade. Round 11 top prep they can cut a deal with. Round 12 find a local prep they can buy out of college. Rounds 13 through 20 take a chance on a hard sign on 1 or 2 picks and fill system depth with the others.
As it stands at this insanely early date, I’m good with either of the big two college arms (Burns/Smith) or Montgomery are my pick. If one of them is there, go for it. Kurtz…meh.
Wake, for being so loaded with draft prospects, is off to a pretty uneven start. How long before they switch Burns and Hartle?
Hartle is dropping fast, King is starting to hit a bit and Kurtz is being pitched around and had a minor injury, he only has like 60 at bats because he's walked 28 times (3 or 4 yesterday).
Burns is looking like a top 5 pick as is Smith. I personally like Smith just a tad better. He struck out Bazzana 3 times earlier this year.
T-minus 23 hours 42 minutes and counting!!!
Eno Sarriss on The Athletic has the Bucs taking a WC.
Water closet?
stands for World Ceries?
Whered you see that? Ive always like eno and now i like him even more
Over on The Athletic. As JT said, they’re not altogether outlandish takes…a bunch of young talent fully maturing at the same time.
Yeah, but the Pirates have to survive the weeks between now and Super Two to have a realistic chance. If dudes like Davis, Cruz, and Hayes keep improving on offense starting in April, the odds will be better.
I'm not especially sold on the current parts of the rotation that aren't named Keller and Jones, though. To make a Wild Card this year, a lot of things have to hit and hit early. I mean, that describes almost every playoff run if you're not the Braves or the Dodgers, but still. A lot has to go the right way and right away.
I've been long on the window opening in 2025 since GMBC took over. Nothing has forced me to update the prior assumptions that feed that theory.
Is it that tall of an order to survive “weeks” in this division when most prognosticators for the division have the winner at 85 games? If get off to a similar start as last year (let’s say 16-12 over their first 28, four off last years pace), they’re well within range. Did you trust last years rotation less than this years? I did.
Having watched the hitting dry up the last couple of weeks of ST, I don't have a lot of faith that we're not doing another round of the Andy Haines hitting clinic. If that's the case, then the pitching is going to have to be beyond spectacular.
That said, Jones is the only distinct improvement in the rotation.
Martin Perez . . . I can see the argument, especially if you're a buyer that he's never really pitched in a pitcher's park. That 2022 season with the Rangers has to be the flukiest single SP season I've seen in a while, but the Pirates don't need him to be that good.
Marco Gonzales . . . oof. He hasn't recorded a good xFIP in a full season since 2018. Admittedly, Oscar Marin's pixie dust has worked for all aged leftie starters so far.
Bailey Falter is a just a no for me. I don't get the thesis for him starting at all. Not even with the Pirates limited options. Hell, I'd rather give Ortiz another look as a starter if putting Falter out there every five days is where things stand. It's not a good sign that this guy is the 5th SP. TBH, peripherals say Quinn Priester won the job over Falter.
On balance, I don't think there's enough there there for the rotation to carry this team. Factoring in injury expectations, I'm not even sure that changes when Skenes arrives. I don't think this team will have a rotation that can carry it probably until we're talking about Chandler and Solometo in the majors for good.
So some of this is based on ST numbers? That’s always risky.
As for the rotation last year, I was highly skeptical about VV and Hill and that turned out somewhat good. So even though Marco has looked horrid, I’ll reserve judgment till the lights go on. I wouldn’t depend on Bubba/Solometo being staples of the rotation either. Young arms don’t all work out like that.
Falter, I don’t understand either. He genuinely doesn’t look like a starter at all and I think Ortiz should have that spot. Maybe some of Ortiz moving to the pen is because of all the injuries there in ST and they thing he’s better suited to move back into the rotation than Falter? I dunno.
Well... I think many of the expectations on here are that Cruz and Davis will add to the lineup, and they will be a good offensive team with bad starting pitching, at least for a while. The problem with this thinking is that everyone is looking at Hayes' and Suwinski's 2 best months as pros, Triolo's .420 BABIP, a career year for Connor Joe, and expecting them all to do that for an entire season (or another season in Joe's case). I think Suwinski will be good this year. I think Hayes will be OK, but not a much above-average bat. Triolo will do his thing and hit .290ish, maybe .300, but without a lot of power. It's an OK lineup that would be enough if they can stay relatively healthy, and they could make a wild card or division run if they had a solid rotation with depth in the minors. Unfortunately, the depth they do have at pitching in the minors will probably be needed to fill out the rotation and is not depth at all actually. Losing any of the major players: Reynolds, Keller, Suwinski, Hayes, or Cruz pretty much buries them.
fair reasoning too. Cruz, Hayes, Davis breakouts + Jones & Skenes giving a boost to the rotation at midseason.
Oh that's it? ;)
Dbacks rotation is so freaking good, their offseason has quietly been super good for filling out their needs
What?? The first thing I thought was AM is playing an April Fools joke! I still don't believe this news! Montgomery to Pirates? $25M? Can't be. Must be a dream......
Ahhh then I got to the fine print.....Dbacks.
Anthony, that was a mean headline :((
Click bait at its finest. And truth be told, coulda swore I added DBacks to that so that this exact situation didn’t happen lol
Montgomery must’ve prioritized contention over financial security. The ironic part is AZ with him doesn’t help their playoff chances as much as he would help the Pirates, or any other NL Central team, win the division.
In other news, Boras had an epically bad FA this winter.
Said it before, the luxury tax is actually working espec for multiple year year offenders. There's no economic model that justifies any club who wants to add a $25M pitcher that ends up costing them $40-50M because of the tax penalty. IDK, maybe Boras mis-judged the market but I don't think so......he knows the economics better than most.
As I mentioned on another thread, I think Boras seriously underestimated the impact of the RSN meltdown and clubs we hesitant to spend super large money on most of the available players this off season. Only a couple of players got crazy money.
I don’t necessarily blame Boras exclusively for FA’s not getting what comparable players have received in the most recent years. I think Owners/GM’s take note that the Mets and Padres both “broke the bank” last year and missed playoffs. Plus they also see low spending teams like the Rays and Orioles finish with more wins than almost every big spender by developing and trading for cheap talent. Lastly they also see how wildcard teams like Phillies, Rangers, and Dbacks win pennants and a World Series as a wildcard team.
It appears the general consensus is with more teams in playoffs, it’s not necessary to spend to the top of market to make the playoffs, nor does having the best 162-game roster mean success in the month of October.
I think you mostly hit the nail on the head. One other point I’d add: the days of teams wildly overpaying for a guy based on a career year that’s not supported by the secondary metrics are mostly over. Sure you have a few old school teams that still spend in that manner, like the Angels, but relying on those few teams to pony up the dollars is a foolish strategy.
Yes. I think Boras is living in the world of 2006, where there was no Trackman data and low interest rates had everyone projecting massive revenue expansion each year into the future endlessly.
We are literally one year removed form Boras leading the highest Free Agent spending period of any professional sports league in the history of human civilization.
You guys are incredible.
The biggest contracts, including extensions went to Machado, Devers, Judge and Turner and they aren’t even Boras clients. Machado uses MVP Sports Group, Turner is a CAA client. Judge uses David Matranga. Devers uses Rep 1 Sports. That’s well over a third of what teams spent that offseason, and it wasn’t Boras getting the deals. One of biggest clients that offseason, Correa, lost about $35 million by not going with the Tigers $275 million offer the prior offseason.
Definitely true.
Good addendum to my post.
He has a history of costing guys money. Choo and Correa are two great examples. I suspect we will find out later that Montgomery had a decent offer on the table.
He also has an incredible history of getting guys more money than was predicted or for really long term sweet deals. Players aren't lining up to use him as an agent because he has a bad track record.
In a lot of instances it’s guys that would have been paid anyways. Gerrit Cole didn’t need an agent to drum up his market. The market will tell you what he’s worth. So he plays his games with guys like Cole and Harper and it predictably works, and everything thinks he’s a genius. Problem is, teams don’t *need* guys like Bellinger/Chapman. They aren’t overpaying by 30%, and they surely aren’t going to indulge your negotiating tactics in the process. Sure guys do line up to use him, and he has gotten some good deals over the years, like I’m sure most agents have. But I think most people overvalue the “table pounding/browbeating” style of negotiation that Boras employs. That’s especially true of guys like Bellinger, Chapman, Snell etc who are going to get more need with honey than vinegar.
I look at it this way, he gets the majority of high profile clients and players in general and if they were just 'getting paid anyway' then he wouldn't have such a high percentage of players. Without being 'in the room' myself at some point if he was not out performing other agents his clientele would be reduced. Is he annoying etc. yes.. but from the players perspective he also advocates beyond just his clients players getting their 'fair' share. Does he have a perfect record of course not but the people who ultimately 'grade' him sure seem to be lining up to use him vs. other agents so I do think his methods have worked and in many ways have stood the test of time.
That assumes that people always make choices that are in their best interests though. And we know that isn’t true. If Chapman had made the choice that was in his best financial interest he would’ve signed with the Blue Jays. I think it’s important to recognize these guys are ball players, they aren’t financial advisors, etc. Just because they are extremely skilled athletes and make a lot of money doing so, doesn’t necessarily mean they are anymore skilled at making financial judgments than a working stiff like me. They employ agents based on advice received from others, personal biases etc. None of this is to say that Boras is an awful agent who losses money for all his clients. But I do question whether he’s the best agent for everyone, particularly some of these mid tier guys.
I don't disagree one bit with your last sentence but would drop mid tier and just say he (or anybody) will not be the best agent for everyone. The net to me is that he has been doing this 'forever' for players of all pay scales (we just hear more about the big $) with a lot of competition so any question of his methods or success or possible demise because of one year just doesn't ring true to me. Not all players make wise decisions but many do and many actually have smart people advising them. Players keep signing up, so he is doing something right (and maybe better).
Is not affecting his wallet, just delaying the cash until next year. He’ll get his commission eventually!
Always a risky bet to make with a pitcher.
💯
https://futurestarsseries.com/mock-draft-mlb-draft-2024/
For you mel. Was hoping jj would fall to buccos
Montgomery or Kurtz would be great at pick 9. JJ still might fall if he doesn't get back soon and perform right off.
I really like the potential of this draft if they target corner sluggers. I'm big on Blake Burke(Tenn), Jared Jones(Lsu), Corey Collins(UGA), and the catcher from Campbell Grant Knipp.
I wouldn't mind if they drafted those types after pick 9(best available) and saved money for a prep player in round 11 and 12. They should be able to save some money because none are currently projected in the top 50, most don't touch top 100. Collins is a senior but corner bats is the value area in this draft.
Basically pick sluggers through round 4. I wouldn't be upset with a prep player thrown in those first 5 picks. Rounds 5 through 10 add to Ben's Bullpen Brigade. Round 11 top prep they can cut a deal with. Round 12 find a local prep they can buy out of college. Rounds 13 through 20 take a chance on a hard sign on 1 or 2 picks and fill system depth with the others.
If he drops, I want Tibbs. For endless “in the heat of the night” references.
He would be a good one with the compA if he's there, him and Cam Smith will probably already be gone though. Great reference!
As it stands at this insanely early date, I’m good with either of the big two college arms (Burns/Smith) or Montgomery are my pick. If one of them is there, go for it. Kurtz…meh.
Wake, for being so loaded with draft prospects, is off to a pretty uneven start. How long before they switch Burns and Hartle?
Hartle is dropping fast, King is starting to hit a bit and Kurtz is being pitched around and had a minor injury, he only has like 60 at bats because he's walked 28 times (3 or 4 yesterday).
Burns is looking like a top 5 pick as is Smith. I personally like Smith just a tad better. He struck out Bazzana 3 times earlier this year.
If Kurtz doesn’t hit, he doesn’t have much value though. He’s not even doing a ton of damage when he doesn’t walk. That’s a high bar.
Kinda hard to take JJ if he doesn’t have any hamstrings left.
Never disappoints, this fella.
HIRE THIS MAN
Who me? Although I was known as a top notch bunter in little league. So any of these top guys known for bunting skills?
I am Groot.
Knock it the fuck off with this I am Groot crap.
That's exciting!