For anybody wondering why the Pirates' record isn't better, here's a list of how many sub-replacement position players have seen action on the NL contenders this year, and how many plate appearances they've gotten.
Atlanta: 8 sub-replacement players, 433 PAs
Mets: 3 -- 118
Philly: 2 -- 662
Mil: 3 -- 63
St.L.: 4 -- 347
Cubs: 6 -- 787
Pirates: 9 -- 1,372
Reds: 15 -- 1,511
Arizona: 3 -- 224
LAD: 5 -- 457
SF: 10 -- 804
SD: 3 -- 108
The Pirates have devastated themselves with self-inflicted injuries.
What’s odd is their insistence on giving these sub-replacement level players all this playing time. Cause you know, you can’t ever find a -.4 fWAR first baseman (Tellez) or backup SS (Alika) on waivers.
Jeez, you think our prospects have been disappointing, Toronto’s have been abysmal. Two high profile lefties under the knife, 1st round pick last year fanning a third of the time, Martinez getting popped for PEDs.
Pitching is always a crapshoot for this reason. That was a pretty vaunted system though, and a lot of the better talents have flamed out: Nate Pearson, Jordan Groshans, Anthony Alford, Cavan Biggio, Sean Reid Foley, Austin Martin, SWR. One of the better players they produced: Gabriel Moreno was traded to the Diamondbacks.
I pulled up their 2019 list. They hit big on some of those: Vlad, Bichette. And when healthy, Jansen has been pretty good. But yeah, beyond that…it’s a rough list. You know who is on that list and one of the better outcomes? Rowdy!
35% of that production came in one fluky year. If we take away the 35 HR season, and divide the rest of his home runs amongst the 4 seasons where he’s played over 100 games, you get 16.5 home runs per season. That’s not nearly enough power output for a player with his shortcomings to be considered useful. He’s basically a quad A player, that our front office is obsessed with for some odd and unknown reason.
You can’t just take away a guys good season and say “see, he never was any good!” That’s the same stuff Jeff Locke fans did in reverse.
Ultimately I agree with you in that I don’t understand the appeal for Pgh to stick with him as long as they have. This is a bad body 1B…those guys age about as well as milk on a countertop.
Fwiw, eno sarris was just talking about Bednar and noted his stuff+ is still very good and said "for a reliever a season is a small sample size" and "reminds me of the edwin diaz bad season." He said his fastball last a little ride and curveball lost a little depth but moreso occasional bad location has been his problem. Fully believes he will be back to normal for next season.
Yeah, that's not too dissimilar to someone like Nicolas, who Stuff+ jumped off the page almost immediately. Part of what made Bednar so good, was his ability to locate. Very possible he's kind of worn down from the previous years, and he just needs a nice long off-season of recovery. But you're also probably paying him upwards up $8M next year to just hope he's back to being good.
I also just think it's poor asset management. Teams will often overpay for a closer, let alone one with extra years of control, and the Pirates have a HUUUUUUGE need for upside hitter depth in the upper minors. Now, they're a team still with said huge need, but also a closer who you hope to get back on track.
His really bad beginning of the season was followed by a very strong stretch and now this. The early season issues cost us games, which stinks, but it was pretty clearly the rust. Now this stretch is a little more frustrating but it happens to relievers and the sss is particularly apt since a reliever may blow a number of games in 3-5 innings.
Agreed with all you said here. It is definitely worth seeing how other teams value him after this year in comparison to what he will be paid in arb. If we had Preller, I would say trade him next year when hes rebuilt value while staying all in. I dont know that I trust Ben to pull that off though
Question on Holderman... is his 'stuff' seem the same kind of like it seems Bednar's is or was there a drop-off? First half Holderman IMO was a slam dunk easy replacement for Bednar at closer if they were to move on. 2nd half - yikes. It does speak to the volatility (and sometimes just small sample size when you pitch one inning at a time) with bullpens. I do agree a bullpen is the last place to spend money even though it can be painful. If we had a good rotation (check mark for now) and offense (uh... not so much) and bullpen was the 'only' issue.. I'd sign up all day long.
Holderman has a nasty slider, backed up by Stuff+, but his sinker doesn't grade well, on top of his Location+ is worse. Bednar has two well above average pitches (fastball and splitter), Holderman has a well above average slider, a slightly above average cutter, then a below average sinker. Bednar's fastball and it's shape can stand to miss spots, more often than Holderman and his poorly shaped sinker.
So likely a solid bullpen contributor (ie. lock for 40 man until he gets expensive), but not the ideal closer replacement? And if that is the case then it leads to your previous post -> trade candidate if the price is right (ie. sell high if possible which unfortunately was 2 months ago or some future date).
For anybody wondering why the Pirates' record isn't better, here's a list of how many sub-replacement position players have seen action on the NL contenders this year, and how many plate appearances they've gotten.
Atlanta: 8 sub-replacement players, 433 PAs
Mets: 3 -- 118
Philly: 2 -- 662
Mil: 3 -- 63
St.L.: 4 -- 347
Cubs: 6 -- 787
Pirates: 9 -- 1,372
Reds: 15 -- 1,511
Arizona: 3 -- 224
LAD: 5 -- 457
SF: 10 -- 804
SD: 3 -- 108
The Pirates have devastated themselves with self-inflicted injuries.
What’s odd is their insistence on giving these sub-replacement level players all this playing time. Cause you know, you can’t ever find a -.4 fWAR first baseman (Tellez) or backup SS (Alika) on waivers.
Kind of amazing we are as good as we are.
That's why I dubbed it a "team of destiny" immediately before its recent collapse. That said,
Offense: -
Pitching:
Starters: +
Relief: -
Defense: -
It's hard for a team to win when it is good in only one component of the game.
super, super frustrating. the bare minimum a club should be able to accomplish internally.
Jeez, you think our prospects have been disappointing, Toronto’s have been abysmal. Two high profile lefties under the knife, 1st round pick last year fanning a third of the time, Martinez getting popped for PEDs.
Pitching is always a crapshoot for this reason. That was a pretty vaunted system though, and a lot of the better talents have flamed out: Nate Pearson, Jordan Groshans, Anthony Alford, Cavan Biggio, Sean Reid Foley, Austin Martin, SWR. One of the better players they produced: Gabriel Moreno was traded to the Diamondbacks.
I pulled up their 2019 list. They hit big on some of those: Vlad, Bichette. And when healthy, Jansen has been pretty good. But yeah, beyond that…it’s a rough list. You know who is on that list and one of the better outcomes? Rowdy!
A guy who has been exactly replacement level for his career is a better outcome? Yikes.
A guy who hit 100 homers in the big leagues isn’t nothing, don’t you think?
35% of that production came in one fluky year. If we take away the 35 HR season, and divide the rest of his home runs amongst the 4 seasons where he’s played over 100 games, you get 16.5 home runs per season. That’s not nearly enough power output for a player with his shortcomings to be considered useful. He’s basically a quad A player, that our front office is obsessed with for some odd and unknown reason.
You can’t just take away a guys good season and say “see, he never was any good!” That’s the same stuff Jeff Locke fans did in reverse.
Ultimately I agree with you in that I don’t understand the appeal for Pgh to stick with him as long as they have. This is a bad body 1B…those guys age about as well as milk on a countertop.
I'm just sitting here refreshing Pipeline wondering if/when they're supposed to post the update.
Just noticed they finally updated.
About damn time!
Ya, I thought I heard in the podcast or something it was today. Updated top 100 and team rankings
Is today the day?
Supposed to be, yeah lol
Havent listened to this week's pod yet, but sometimes they give clues to the drop on there
Callis, or Mayo, tweeted last week that they were publishing updated lists today. So, it should just be a matter or "when"
Fwiw, eno sarris was just talking about Bednar and noted his stuff+ is still very good and said "for a reliever a season is a small sample size" and "reminds me of the edwin diaz bad season." He said his fastball last a little ride and curveball lost a little depth but moreso occasional bad location has been his problem. Fully believes he will be back to normal for next season.
Thought it was some interesting info!
Yeah, that's not too dissimilar to someone like Nicolas, who Stuff+ jumped off the page almost immediately. Part of what made Bednar so good, was his ability to locate. Very possible he's kind of worn down from the previous years, and he just needs a nice long off-season of recovery. But you're also probably paying him upwards up $8M next year to just hope he's back to being good.
I also just think it's poor asset management. Teams will often overpay for a closer, let alone one with extra years of control, and the Pirates have a HUUUUUUGE need for upside hitter depth in the upper minors. Now, they're a team still with said huge need, but also a closer who you hope to get back on track.
His really bad beginning of the season was followed by a very strong stretch and now this. The early season issues cost us games, which stinks, but it was pretty clearly the rust. Now this stretch is a little more frustrating but it happens to relievers and the sss is particularly apt since a reliever may blow a number of games in 3-5 innings.
Agreed with all you said here. It is definitely worth seeing how other teams value him after this year in comparison to what he will be paid in arb. If we had Preller, I would say trade him next year when hes rebuilt value while staying all in. I dont know that I trust Ben to pull that off though
Not trying to flip Holderman is more egregious to me though
Question on Holderman... is his 'stuff' seem the same kind of like it seems Bednar's is or was there a drop-off? First half Holderman IMO was a slam dunk easy replacement for Bednar at closer if they were to move on. 2nd half - yikes. It does speak to the volatility (and sometimes just small sample size when you pitch one inning at a time) with bullpens. I do agree a bullpen is the last place to spend money even though it can be painful. If we had a good rotation (check mark for now) and offense (uh... not so much) and bullpen was the 'only' issue.. I'd sign up all day long.
Holderman has a nasty slider, backed up by Stuff+, but his sinker doesn't grade well, on top of his Location+ is worse. Bednar has two well above average pitches (fastball and splitter), Holderman has a well above average slider, a slightly above average cutter, then a below average sinker. Bednar's fastball and it's shape can stand to miss spots, more often than Holderman and his poorly shaped sinker.
But also, earlier in the year, Holderman was better than he currently is, but he was still more lucky than he was good.
So likely a solid bullpen contributor (ie. lock for 40 man until he gets expensive), but not the ideal closer replacement? And if that is the case then it leads to your previous post -> trade candidate if the price is right (ie. sell high if possible which unfortunately was 2 months ago or some future date).
Thank you.. good stuff.