Jared Jones walking hardly anyone is an incredible (and unexpected) turn of events. He was never out of control in the minors but he walked over 3.5 per nine which was enough for experts to consider him a reliever risk. Thus far his .78 walks per nine and 10 to 1 k/bb ratio are insane. But the kicker is the ratio of K and BB percentages. Jones is at 34.1%. Here is a link to FanGraphs career leaderboard all time. Only 3 other pitchers have ever had over 30% and they are all relievers. Jacob DeGrom and Chris sale (to pick a couple guys) career is 25%.
Sure. It’s the strikeouts.
But really.
It’s the walks. Or lack of them. He keeps that up and he’s the best pitcher in the game and it isn’t close.
He's certainly been the highlight of the season to this point.
I don't get the logic behind letting him throw 86 pitches, then limiting him to 59, and then letting him get to 91. As someone pointed out last night, a more even distribution of, say, 75-80 pitches each outing would seem better (and consistent with how teams handle developing pitchers in the minors). If they limit him the next time out, it will make a little more sense as I could appreciate a plan that allowed 80-90 one outing followed by a lighter load the next outing. We'll see.
There is absolutely no rhyme or reason to how these lineups are constructed. Joe Ross on the mound last night for the Brewers…at a minimum you should have Reynolds in LF, Suwinski in CF, and Oliveras in RF. They need to find a way to get EO in the lineup on a consistent basis instead of trying to fit two square pegs, in Taylor and Joe, into round holes. The data supports a platoon with several players, but it only works if you actually platoon the players 🤦🏻♂️.
I love all of the stat talk. Here is a stat I would like to see for each hitter. Hitters that are hitting under .200 on their last 20 at bats have a batting average of X. Hitters hitting over .300 on their last 20 at bats have a batting average of Y.
I think we would find statistical data for certain hitters that support when they are doing well, they stay hot. When they are not doing well, they stay slumping. It doesn't seem like this is figured in roster construction.
What is more foolish is when the guy that is the best hitter on the planet for a week, gets pinch hit for because of a lefty/righty match-up. Or when a batter is in a 1 for 40 slump, a team still bats him clean up based on data from a year or two ago. There are a many many splits and factors that can be figured in. Lefty/righty is one of the best, but it isn't a tell all.
This game is about probabilities. Being consistent and playing the probabilities will give you a much better chance at the desired outcomes. Using your “gut” or emotion to make baseball decisions is nothing more than relying on luck if not supported by the data. With that being said, I’m sure that managers are using rolling averages/statistics and weighing them against the preponderance of historical data to make decisions.
I get the probabilities and enjoy them. I have taught a class on it for nearly 40 years, not to mention using probability more than most in my coaching basketball days. Really what I was trying to see is more stats on what you call rolling average/statistics. I think baseball has only scratched the surface on how they use analytics. Also, I would think conditional probability needs to be factored in more.
Here is a simple example. Cutch last year worked the count and drew a lot of walks. This year pitchers know that so they throw more strikes and his probability of walking. Cutch counters by swinging on the first pitch and homering. That changed the probability of his next at bat where he was able to work a 3 and 1 count for a single.
I think of this like the market. Baseball, like investments, are a marathon not a sprint.
Retail traders who flip stocks frequently more often than not lose their ass chasing the hot stock. The institutional investors who stick with the stalwarts through ups and downs will almost always outperform them.
Pirate fans, and those of other generally crappy teams, probably have a skewed perception of this since they rarely actually have those stalwarts to play with. To us, playing the hot hand may very well be best given there's not really any more certain options available.
It really is too easy to say stick with the hot hand or get that guy out of there. That is why I would like to see stats on streaks for players. How much of it is real and how much is made up. I think some streaks happen because players are in a groove and others happen just because it is the law of averages.
Especially on the opposite end, slumps. Very often a slump is some flaw that popped up and not just a bad run. Takes really, reeaaallllyy good coaching to know the difference and effectively fix the issues.
A look at the splits for Olivares the past few years indicates he hits RHP's just as well as LHP's, so no sound logic for him to not be in the lineup in RF. A further look into the 2024 splits indicates that Connor Joe is hitting RHP's much better than Rowdy Tellez, so if we wanted Joe's bat in the lineup, why go at 1B with a LH hitter who is really struggling (Tellez). A much better offensive and defensive team with Olivares and Joe in the lineup.
Platooning is difficult with only 13 position players, one of which is a backup Catcher and another is Tellez who cannot play any position other than 1B. Also, throw in 'Cutch who is a DH only so far.
Early results suggest that Tellez was a bad signing that could be compounded by Shelton sticking with veterans long after it's become obvious that they're hurting the team. I think April 23 is too soon to give up on any player, but I'm having trouble watching Tellez's ABs and I find all the hype about his clubhouse presence annoying. As some have pointed out, the most consistently good baseball we played last year was after we had traded most of our veteran clubhouse leaders.
We have a similar problem in the OF, though in that case I liked the signing of MAT. We shouldn't have gone into the season trusting that Olivares is an everyday player but he's earned that opportunity. Shelton needs to keep playing MAT--you can't sign a veteran and then not play him and his defense has earned him plus WAR anyway (3rd highest on the team, and the only OF with plus defense). But I'm sure I'm like many who want to see Reynolds, Suwinski, and Olivares in the lineup everyday. Maybe the rotation keeps players healthier for the dog days of summer.
It is too early, but the patience they deserve is associated with prior information going into the season.
Cruz: No surprise that he'd have some early struggles given the time he missed, so patience is deserved (though a short stretch in AAA might not be a terrible idea).
Cutch: Also missed time at the end of last year, plus he's Cutch, and deserves patience.
Tellez: Was below replacement level last year and even in his best year he was only worth 1 WAR, which is below average. How much patience does he deserve?
Triolo: Who wouldn't expect some rookie struggles? I've thought in the past we haven't given rookies enough time to adjust before reducing their roles. But the clock is ticking given how Bae and Gonzales are performing in AAA.
I liked where you were heading until the "(though a short stretch in AAA might not be a terrible idea)". He's either one of the building blocks to the future success of this franchise or trade him - no half way with this kid - you want him or you don't.
Davis: See Triolo with the added challenge of the extra effort he's exerting as a catcher. No way I'm giving up on him, but when Grandal is ready, giving Davis starts at DH or a couple of weeks of games in AAA wouldn't be a bad idea.
The other half of the splits (and I did NO homework on recent opposing pitchers) is the pitchers themselves. If there is RH starter who is just nasty against righties but vulnerable against lefties then that should become another factor in the platoon decision. I agree EO has shown enough to earn more ABs. I personally think they are playing Cutch at a reasonable rate (feels like 3 out of 5 games) which does leave some DH time available for others. Taylor to me should be a strict platoon and late inning defensive replacement.
Your team leader in defensive runs saved, as expected: Rowdy Tellez.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2024&season1=&ind=0&team=27&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&month=0&sortcol=12&sortdir=asc&pagenum=1
He is smooth over there. Turns a nice DP. Be patient with the bat, it'll come...He's pressing right now with his new team.
Jared Jones walking hardly anyone is an incredible (and unexpected) turn of events. He was never out of control in the minors but he walked over 3.5 per nine which was enough for experts to consider him a reliever risk. Thus far his .78 walks per nine and 10 to 1 k/bb ratio are insane. But the kicker is the ratio of K and BB percentages. Jones is at 34.1%. Here is a link to FanGraphs career leaderboard all time. Only 3 other pitchers have ever had over 30% and they are all relievers. Jacob DeGrom and Chris sale (to pick a couple guys) career is 25%.
Sure. It’s the strikeouts.
But really.
It’s the walks. Or lack of them. He keeps that up and he’s the best pitcher in the game and it isn’t close.
He won’t though. It isn’t possible. Right?
He's Tyler Glasnow.
One way or another, it just clicked. Incredible to watch!
Different version of Glasnow, but same end results.
He's certainly been the highlight of the season to this point.
I don't get the logic behind letting him throw 86 pitches, then limiting him to 59, and then letting him get to 91. As someone pointed out last night, a more even distribution of, say, 75-80 pitches each outing would seem better (and consistent with how teams handle developing pitchers in the minors). If they limit him the next time out, it will make a little more sense as I could appreciate a plan that allowed 80-90 one outing followed by a lighter load the next outing. We'll see.
Sorry. Forgot the link to the leaderboard:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&type=1&sortcol=8&sortdir=default&startdate=&enddate=&month=0&season1=1871&season=2024&qual=20
There is absolutely no rhyme or reason to how these lineups are constructed. Joe Ross on the mound last night for the Brewers…at a minimum you should have Reynolds in LF, Suwinski in CF, and Oliveras in RF. They need to find a way to get EO in the lineup on a consistent basis instead of trying to fit two square pegs, in Taylor and Joe, into round holes. The data supports a platoon with several players, but it only works if you actually platoon the players 🤦🏻♂️.
I love all of the stat talk. Here is a stat I would like to see for each hitter. Hitters that are hitting under .200 on their last 20 at bats have a batting average of X. Hitters hitting over .300 on their last 20 at bats have a batting average of Y.
I think we would find statistical data for certain hitters that support when they are doing well, they stay hot. When they are not doing well, they stay slumping. It doesn't seem like this is figured in roster construction.
A hitter's most recent data is *least* predictive of future performance.
Everybody slumps and anybody can be the best hitter on the planet for a week.
Pretending either is instructive of *future* success is foolish, which is why no teams do it.
What is more foolish is when the guy that is the best hitter on the planet for a week, gets pinch hit for because of a lefty/righty match-up. Or when a batter is in a 1 for 40 slump, a team still bats him clean up based on data from a year or two ago. There are a many many splits and factors that can be figured in. Lefty/righty is one of the best, but it isn't a tell all.
This game is about probabilities. Being consistent and playing the probabilities will give you a much better chance at the desired outcomes. Using your “gut” or emotion to make baseball decisions is nothing more than relying on luck if not supported by the data. With that being said, I’m sure that managers are using rolling averages/statistics and weighing them against the preponderance of historical data to make decisions.
I get the probabilities and enjoy them. I have taught a class on it for nearly 40 years, not to mention using probability more than most in my coaching basketball days. Really what I was trying to see is more stats on what you call rolling average/statistics. I think baseball has only scratched the surface on how they use analytics. Also, I would think conditional probability needs to be factored in more.
Here is a simple example. Cutch last year worked the count and drew a lot of walks. This year pitchers know that so they throw more strikes and his probability of walking. Cutch counters by swinging on the first pitch and homering. That changed the probability of his next at bat where he was able to work a 3 and 1 count for a single.
Many factors, for sure.
I think of this like the market. Baseball, like investments, are a marathon not a sprint.
Retail traders who flip stocks frequently more often than not lose their ass chasing the hot stock. The institutional investors who stick with the stalwarts through ups and downs will almost always outperform them.
Pirate fans, and those of other generally crappy teams, probably have a skewed perception of this since they rarely actually have those stalwarts to play with. To us, playing the hot hand may very well be best given there's not really any more certain options available.
It really is too easy to say stick with the hot hand or get that guy out of there. That is why I would like to see stats on streaks for players. How much of it is real and how much is made up. I think some streaks happen because players are in a groove and others happen just because it is the law of averages.
Now that's the kicker!
Especially on the opposite end, slumps. Very often a slump is some flaw that popped up and not just a bad run. Takes really, reeaaallllyy good coaching to know the difference and effectively fix the issues.
A look at the splits for Olivares the past few years indicates he hits RHP's just as well as LHP's, so no sound logic for him to not be in the lineup in RF. A further look into the 2024 splits indicates that Connor Joe is hitting RHP's much better than Rowdy Tellez, so if we wanted Joe's bat in the lineup, why go at 1B with a LH hitter who is really struggling (Tellez). A much better offensive and defensive team with Olivares and Joe in the lineup.
Platooning is difficult with only 13 position players, one of which is a backup Catcher and another is Tellez who cannot play any position other than 1B. Also, throw in 'Cutch who is a DH only so far.
Early results suggest that Tellez was a bad signing that could be compounded by Shelton sticking with veterans long after it's become obvious that they're hurting the team. I think April 23 is too soon to give up on any player, but I'm having trouble watching Tellez's ABs and I find all the hype about his clubhouse presence annoying. As some have pointed out, the most consistently good baseball we played last year was after we had traded most of our veteran clubhouse leaders.
We have a similar problem in the OF, though in that case I liked the signing of MAT. We shouldn't have gone into the season trusting that Olivares is an everyday player but he's earned that opportunity. Shelton needs to keep playing MAT--you can't sign a veteran and then not play him and his defense has earned him plus WAR anyway (3rd highest on the team, and the only OF with plus defense). But I'm sure I'm like many who want to see Reynolds, Suwinski, and Olivares in the lineup everyday. Maybe the rotation keeps players healthier for the dog days of summer.
Way too early to cast judgement on anyone...
My big fat loudmouth was ready to send Cutch to the retirement home and Cruz to Korea. It's very easy to get caught up and make overzealous comments.
It is too early, but the patience they deserve is associated with prior information going into the season.
Cruz: No surprise that he'd have some early struggles given the time he missed, so patience is deserved (though a short stretch in AAA might not be a terrible idea).
Cutch: Also missed time at the end of last year, plus he's Cutch, and deserves patience.
Tellez: Was below replacement level last year and even in his best year he was only worth 1 WAR, which is below average. How much patience does he deserve?
Triolo: Who wouldn't expect some rookie struggles? I've thought in the past we haven't given rookies enough time to adjust before reducing their roles. But the clock is ticking given how Bae and Gonzales are performing in AAA.
...
I liked where you were heading until the "(though a short stretch in AAA might not be a terrible idea)". He's either one of the building blocks to the future success of this franchise or trade him - no half way with this kid - you want him or you don't.
Now do Davis...
Davis: See Triolo with the added challenge of the extra effort he's exerting as a catcher. No way I'm giving up on him, but when Grandal is ready, giving Davis starts at DH or a couple of weeks of games in AAA wouldn't be a bad idea.
The other half of the splits (and I did NO homework on recent opposing pitchers) is the pitchers themselves. If there is RH starter who is just nasty against righties but vulnerable against lefties then that should become another factor in the platoon decision. I agree EO has shown enough to earn more ABs. I personally think they are playing Cutch at a reasonable rate (feels like 3 out of 5 games) which does leave some DH time available for others. Taylor to me should be a strict platoon and late inning defensive replacement.