146 Comments

Adminsky’s guide to the next month:

1. Fire grandal into the void (or if anyone can be swindled into veteranosity catching depth), and call up delay -> hank later this summer

2. Deal chapman- salary savings, can see how playoff teams would be interested despite pedestrian performance so far, lotto ticket or two would be fine, and honestly not sure we would be that much worse off w/o him

3. Deal any prospect not named bubba for an OF bat with control - bleday, MIA OFs, rooker (?), etc. might try to sell high on ashcraft

4. Deal MAT, also for a lotto ticket but im sure a playoff team would take his defense on a roster thats constructed well

5. Monitor pitching health, also consider dealing perez/falter. I think falter has been a pleasant surprise but not sure he can keep it up and other teams will want depth to finish the reg season. Perez is gone after this year, another lotto ticket

Overall: honestly dont think the team would be worse for this season with any of the guys we send away, but might be able to backfill the farm a little. I think delay + bart are better than yasmani anyway. OF help strengthens us both for this year and the future. Losing chapman might hurt pen depth a little, but not convinced someone like honeywell cant give us a ~4 ERA for cheaper, also nicolas is gaining my confidence. The LHSPs are my only hesitation as i dont want to completely give up on this year, but savvy opportunistic deals can be had with them

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The thing about MAT is that he hasn't even hit LHP this year. Worst offensive season of his career. Seems to have been a really bad fit with Haines, I guess.

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"Seems to have been a really bad fit with Haines"

So, IOW, he's a hitter.

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This is honestly very fair, yep.

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If the FO and owner are having a spat, that will likely benefit us fans. Either the FO will be held accountable to produce a playoff team no later than next year (which would match what Huntington did) or they'll be replaced sooner than that. I'm fine with either outcome.

As an aside, on July 9 of Huntington's 5th year the Pirates were 48-37. For those defending Cherington by pointing to the lost minor league season of 2020, in Huntington's 4th year they were 46-43 on July 9. Yeah, there is hope now but I'm skeptical about whether we're on the path to even repeat the 2013-2015 success despite it being easier to make the playoffs now.

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This current core looks nowhere near as good as the 2013-2015 editions. Pretty safe to say he failed and is worthy of replacement at this point.

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Yes... and the situation that Huntington inherited, aside from having Cutch in the minors, was much worse than the situation that Cherington inherited. The final year Huntington team was not that bad and had some talent... i.e. Reynolds, Marte, Musgrove

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Yeah, Ben inherited a team that was one year removed from a winning record while Neal inherited a team fifteen years removed from a winning record. (And I think it was the weight of that long losing streak that contributed to the collapses in '11 and '12, else Neal would have put a winner on the field in less than the six years that it took him.)

I'm okay sticking with this group for one more season but if we don't make the playoffs in year six when six of the fifteen teams qualify now, we'll need a change.

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Funny, Dejan keeps insisting that some definitive source has told him Cherington has lots of money to spend but won't spend it.

Can't say I care a lot. They're probably all lying, but regardless, it's a horribly mismanaged franchise. It's just idiots calling each other idiots.

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Jul 9Edited

"...said one of the sources, *who has a longstanding relationship with Cherington*. “He’s a good baseball man and a bright guy but he’s not able to do the job the way he needs to do it in Pittsburgh. His hands are tied. You can win without spending a lot of money now and again. but you can’t win when you spend no money.”"

Remember the weird media trope that "Cherington wouldn't have come here without guarantees from Bob?".

Super bizarre at the time and this random leak feels eerily in line with that as an excuse for sucking at his job.

Media in this town gets used like a shop towel.

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OTOH, some of the moves they’ve made seem odd considering the payroll strait jacket they now find themselves in. Why commit $200 MM+ to 3 guys knowing that the AAV are what… 40% of your total payroll or some such? It’s almost like they made that decision thinking there would be more money available?

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Ben spent, what, $30M last offseason and wasted it. He had a boatload of money in Boston and finished last his last two years.

Idiots and idiots.

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Yes. He's pushing the blame off onto Nutting for his inability to acquire a single free agent that improved the team. I'm not sure how that is Nutting's fault. On the other hand, I'm sure Nutting did sell him some BS about increasing spending at some unspecified point in the future only to renege on that promise once the local cable deal did not develop to his satisfaction. Whatever the case, those two deserve each other. Long-suffering Pirates' fan, on the other hand, deserve something better from both the owner and the front office.

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True, not defending Nutting but Cherington hasn't got much out of the 30 million he spent in the off-season. Not always good to throw good money on top of poorly spent money. It usually turns out poorly spent as well.

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That's still mostly notable because it's the Pirates. There's so much money in today's game that it's harder to find a club who doesn't have that kind of sunk cost into a lineup than ones that do.

But for most clubs that's only a fraction of their FA budget in a given year and for the Pirates it's the whole damn thing.

That's no full-throated excuse for Cherington but it also sure as shit doesn't absolve Nutting.

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Totally agree, both need to do better. It's pathetic still having the 29th highest payroll. Cherington finds ways to get less value than he actually spends is also extremely frustrating.

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Great find, thanks. That's infuriating. I see the old Change.com petition to force Nutting to sell is above 60k signees and on it's way to 75k in the PBN comment section: https://pittsburghbaseballnow.com/bob-nutting-pittsburgh-pirates-payroll/

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The way I see it. There are about 10 teams that everyone knows will be looking to buy. There are 6 teams that will be looking to sell. There are 14 teams that could go either way. If you are one of those 14 teams, you should be on the phone with both the buyers and the sellers. If I am the GM I would not want my owner saying anything that might show my hand.

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any trade we make should be for multiple years of control so it really should not matter if we label ourselves as a buyer or seller

our one year guys should go (Chapman, M Perez, Taylor) except maybe Rowdy

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That means you are saying we have to be a seller and not a buyer, which I think that is most likely what we will be. Teams ren't going to trade players in return for Chapman, Perez or Taylor that will help us more this year, otherwise they would just keep them.

The exception where I would disagree with you is if the Pirates go on a 10-5 run and are within a game or two of the wild card. There may be some bargains.

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article sounds like it may be easier to trade KeBryan than we all thought

If it is rolling the dice to play with Chapman, would those odds be better than when we roll the dice when he is on the mound

I would gladly trade those two for a hitter like Vlad or Happ

also would through in our b minus prospects for salary relief

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It'd be amazing to see Hayes shipped off somewhere. His highly irrational fanclub would be in tatters. Triolo can put up the same bad numbers for $70M less.

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wonder what the true market is for him?

there´s gotta be a team that buys into his hype that his bat will one day come around

agreed Triolo is the same player for much less - - I also like Nick getting time at third as well

has an mlb player ever really succcessfully come back from lingering back injuries?

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Hayes finished the last 2 months with 10 homers hitting .300, then earned a well-deserved gold glove, with a very good contract. His market would have been through the roof this off-season. The question is how much has it dropped off.

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Jul 9Edited

He's 27 years old and has low back inflation not friggin spina bifida.

He's also coming off two 3-WAR seasons and makes as much as a mediocre 7th inning reliever.

There'd be a massive market for Ke'bryan Hayes.

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I have lower back inflation too. Sounds better than “love handles.”

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Well... if there is some huge market for Hayes... sign me up on trading him for whatever they can get. I read somewhere today that the Pirates are interested in moving his salary... so maybe he will be moved. Would not surprise me at all if he improves significantly with another organization.

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I think the only team that's bought into that Ke'Hype is the one we spend time writing about and reading about, unfortunately.

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Sounds like 2 BS artists: Cherington and Nutting, getting blamed for the other's BS. There is no honor among thieves, nor among liars. Nutting is basically blaming, and Cherington is using proxies and "friends" to blame Nutting. Sounds like GMBC is soon to go. I can only hope.

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Yeah, a real Ides of March.

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Nice find.

bob probably should never talk to the media.

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Fuck that. Will possibly have a more educated and nuanced take later, but if this is true then buck nob futting

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Makes it sound like Nuttings much worse than we already know. Wish the league could force him to sale the team

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It looks like QP will get the start tonight. Hope to see some improvements. This is a guy that needs to pitch backwards to be effective unless his sinker improved.

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I thought I saw Fleming would start tonight. Is Priester up for bulk?

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I haven’t seen an announcement, he was due to start at Indy today and now he isn’t……using my Sherlock Holmes power of deduction…..

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Just read that it is indeed Flemmings (DK’s site.)

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Without a lot more velocity or movement, I see no upside for Priester. I look at him and see Trevor Williams. Maybe not even that…

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Speaking of Trevor Williams, the Nats are saying they're going to sell. Trevor will be on the block as will Jesse Winker who'd actually be a pretty good and very cheap platoon option with Connor Joe.

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Seriously, I get what you are saying. My take is similar, but a little different. I have seen his stuff look so nasty, I don't think he needs the velo. However, if his stuff is not at its very best, he is in big trouble because he doesn't have the velo.

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Yep that”s the problem with guys like him. The good is fine. But the bad can be so bad that it wipes out all of the good.

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I will take the Trevor Williams 2024 stats.

Williams 11 starts 5-0 2.22 era 57 innings 1.08 whip .222 batting average

Skenes 10 starts 5-0 2.12 era 59 innings 1.01 whip .221 batting average

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My gosh, as a Trevor believer, I had no idea he was doing 'That' well, thanks for that reminder.👏👏....looking forward to Glasnow breaking down and Trevor passing him in career WAR... I actually dont care abt that last sentence, seemed fun half way thru typing it🤦‍♂️🤣🤣🤣

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The bad news is Williams has been out with a flexor strain for 5 weeks and I don't think he has began throwing yet.

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I mean of course, but dont think thats at all what to expect from QP

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pretty wild comeback but I think you get his point.

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Just looking for a place to insert how close their numbers are this year. I think I would probably still take Skenes over Williams.... only because Skenes is younger.

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ahaha. Well played!

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Monday, July 8

43 down. 38 to go.

*

Pirates win 8-2 to split a series at PNC with the Mets. They’re four games under .500 and four games back of the wild card race. The Logjam Central is beginning to separate the contenders from the wannabes with the Cards and Brewers for real and the Bucs, Reds and Cubs pretending. It is not too late for everything to fall in place for the Bucs, but it’s getting close. With two starters going down and potentially two starters coming back, it’s touch-and-go right now.

*

CARROTS ON THE HOUSE!!!!!

@> Palacios for finally getting back and doing what Brooklyn does. Welcome to the Carrot Leader Board!

@>@> O’Cruz for his 2 for 3 day with 2 runs batted in and two scored. Nice long homers help around here.

@>@>@> Pitch Keller for showing who’s the mens around here. It was a staff ace type of day for a guy NOT selected for the All-Star game.

_______________________________

“My momma done told me… Bring home something for dinner…”

-Wabbit

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Jazz Chisholm for Braxton Ashcraft, Mitch Jebb, and Zander Mueth. Who says no? Chisholm is under control for 2 more years after this one. Has been a 2-3 WAR player for 4 straight years (but has never played a full season). Arbitration costs will be reasonable.

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Let's run it on BTV: 24.5 surplus value short on Pirates end. Their model thinks you'd need to add one player in the Endy, Termarr, Bubba surplus value range and maybe a Bae level throw in to reach even value.

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I think it is a pretty fair trade. My guess is the Marlins do it. The Pirates say no because they don't seem to take on too many arbitration players. Jazz looks like he lost some of his speed 17 stolen bases, 8 caught. Pretty fair trade though.

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Lots of draft content out there today. McDaniel released his top 250 (Montgomery at 9, Bryce Cunningham at 37…looks like there’s some editor error as the 40+ tier is missing, numbers 43-50).

Law also posted his top 100 as well.

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Who is this year’s Kevin Newman?

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Griff "O'ForFsSake" O'Farrell

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Slade Caldwell it looks like. We can file that Law scouting report on Newman right next Callis’ Wade Boggs insanity take on Termarr.

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remains hilarious to me how the actual quote got bastardized into that.

“The comp I got from a scout on Termarr Johnson is [a] combination of Wade Boggs’ plate discipline with Vladimir Guerrero Sr.’s plate coverage … and from a style of play he resembles Robinson Cano, that would be a pretty good pick to get at one,” Callis added.

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Oh, agreed. I love having fun with it now.

I will say, given how often that (and other scouting comps) quote gets bastardized, it’s no wonder many analysts shy away from comps. That won’t stop unnamed scout though!

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Honestly the full quote is even more unhinged lol

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Right. Let me invoke a HOF 3B with insane bat control, another stylistic comp with another HOF 2B (till PEDs), and throw in a third comp with a player who was one of the most legendary hitting prospects in recent memory. There’s no way that’s an irresponsible statement…

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sources saying Suwinski and Ashcraft to the Cubs for Happ

Cubs like Ashcraft´s groundballs and are willing to eat half of Happ´s salary on the remaining two years of his deal

Switch Hitting Hometown Hero!

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I might have to take back a lot of my earlier Happ post. I am used to seeing his average around .200 this year. I just saw where he has 41 rbi's in his last 38 games. second in the majors to Judge.

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That proposal would be instantly shot down by the Cubbies.

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I make that trade just so we don’t need to face him!

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his ops goes up 100 points by just playing that many more games in PNC

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That is a good point. I was thinking it drops because he is not facing the Pirates pitchers...... but you might be right.

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Ian Happ's salary for 2024 is 21m, 2025 is 21m and 2026 is 19m. We'd be doing the Cubs a favor.

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Happ's on pace for his third straight season of 3+ WAR so the salaries seem fair. Whether Bob would agree to take on those salaries is the question.

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Bob would not pay that amount. It's too high.

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I must just be a Cub hater.

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which prospect(s) are worth $10mil a year for two years?

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The ones that turn out to be good, I guess.

I think if we have money to burn, that is not a bad trade. I would rather us take that money and make Skenes a real offer.... or use it in the off-season and keep our prospects.

Suwinski is from Chicago area.

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Reese McGuire and Harold count as good prospects? that was $17m worth if I remember correctly

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Both their prospect values had cratered that year (called out by several sites) and that was represented when they were moved to the Jays prospect list. That does not mean it was a good trade but basically in the year they were traded their prospect concerns had played out.. ie. Harold was an overweight (at that time) bad fielding corner outfielder and Reese couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag. The Net: I don't think they are good comps but point taken.

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so then why were they worth $17mil? wasnt Liriano over the cliff at that time?

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You had to bring up that trade, didn't you.

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yepper - hometown for hometown - a feel good story

we really missed out on a signing Derek Law in March - - wish we could see him pitch instead of the dumbo clowns weve run out in middle innings

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My off the wall idea (that has a lot of working issues) is to take on Anthony Rendon, with the Angels paying his salary down to $10M AAV, throwing in Taylor Ward, and something else for Connor Joe and Ji-Hwan Bae.

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Hard pass with anything Rendon related.

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Taylor Ward is interesting to me, Rendon is not. Taylor Ward's arbitration might get him around 10m a year the next 3 years. Assuming Ward is good and Rendon is not, we would still be paying 20m a year for 2 players where one is good and one is not.

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My thinking is more of an AJ Burnett, get him away from the big city, and maybe he can rekindle some of his pre-can't-stay-healthy success, albeit he's 34. Biggest issue being unless you can talk him into another position, you can't really DH him with Cutch here. I also dunno about $10M next year for Ward, unless he goes off the second half.

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Hasn't Rendon come out and said he doesn't even like playing baseball?

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Yeah, he's said it isn't his top priority. But he was still very good, before injuries took over.

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He's still a better hitter than Hayes! How about this one:

Ashcraft, Meuth, Jebb, Hayes and his contract for

Rendon +$55M to bring Rendon's AAV down to pretty much Hayes' contract, Schanuel, Ward and Angels top spect LHB CF Nelson Rada

Angels get out from under as much of Rendon's deal as they're going to and they can see if they can fix Hayes' swing. We know we can't. We get a LHB 1B who Melkel loves who was rushed, Ward to bolster the OF and our future CF with Rendon getting a change of scenery and maybe Cutch could help him get his head back in the game.

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Noooooooo, keep Rendon away from this or any other team!!!!!!

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As for the GBO team, Blake Butler has done a terrific job. They have already promoted McAdoo to AA, where he is doing well, and the other position players I would promote would be TJ, Brannigan, and how long can Hudson Head stay in A+? Cimillo did not show much at BRD, but is hitting "taters at GBO on a ridiculous scale - that's a call for the coaches to make.

Pitching-wise, LHRP Jaden Woods was promoted earlier, and there are 4 more LHP's at A+ who have proven they have solved hitters at that level. If they have not been promoted already, Hunter Barco, 24 and Dominic Perachi, 23 are more LHSP's, and Cy Nielson and Luis Peralta, both 23, are LHRP's. Derek Diamond, 23, would be the RHSP to be promoted.

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Peralta was promoted relatively shortly after Woods and McAdoo. But overall, I agree. A lot of those kids need pushed. I'm starting to believe it'll happen around the 25th when the FCL season ends and they decide who they'd like to move up to Bradenton. In addition to how the draft goes, particularly if they reverse years past, and go hitter heavy this year. That could put fresh bodies in Greensboro.

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Gonna be refreshing the transaction page a lot on July 26.

Probably nothing will happen.

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They'll promote one player from FCL, and for some reason Escotto will be only player promoted from Greensboro to Altoona lol

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I dunno. They’ve already released CSN and Connor Scott. Cherington’s failed hitting prospect acquisitions are dropping like flies.

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Wait till the Yankees option JT Brubaker for a couple weeks to stretch him out. Then Bru gives them 2 years of good starting pitching cheap.

The Yankees have really robbed Cherington.

Hopefully Delgado can exceed expectations.

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OK. We aren't getting help from the Yankees. Give me your top 5 players in the draft in order.

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Escotto the only branch remaining from the Taillon trade?

Man, did he eff that one up. Much worse than the Cole trade.

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Yeah, but if you ask Keith Law, it's still somehow Huntington's fault

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I wonder if Law is one of "those in the industry" defending Cherington in the yardbarker article. In any case, I suspected it at the time and am more sure now that Cherington is a step down from Huntington.

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yeah, that was an odd take.

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CSN looked really good at the end of last year. He hit over .400 in September. This year in spring training and with Indy, it seemed like he forgot he could crush the ball. He was one of the best at working counts as he walked about 15 percent of the time. But no threat with the bat at all. I hope he catches on with a new scenery and does well. A good guy.

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He's another guy where I wish the numbers on fangraphs went back further, but his swinging strike rate went up, and contact down. Which, I wish there was more for Swaggerty, cause I truly believe they ruined him. Injuries and life happening aside.

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As for podcast this week, it got pushed back a couple days

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Probably the Draft will be the Topic? Thinking about a CF already in MLB like JJ Bleday of Oakland? The Athletics continue to need an infusion of young talent into the system, and they have the #4, #40, #73, and #75 picks in the Top 80. What if they also had the Pirates "tradeable" Comp pick at #37 giving the A's 3 picks in the Top 40 and a total of 5 picks in the Top 80. Yes, it would probably take more than just the A Comp, but that tradeable Comp pick would be an attention getter. BTW, Bleday will finish 2024 with 2 years of MLB Service. Somebody I have not seen mentioned is Brenton Doyle of the Rockies, who will finish 2024 with only one year of MLB Service. They need picks and pitching!

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Bleday is in a bit of a slump lately, his price tag might come down a bit unless he gets on a hot streak. (He's been robbed of a few hits lately, including a homerun.)

I still like him as a big side platoon.

Still like Jesus Sanchez as well.

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Saw on MLBTR that the Marlins are saying they're not trading Jesus Sanchez fwiw

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Makes sense, he's underrated. Although more of a platoon player, he's only 26 and can hit rhp.

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I like Sanchez, even though I see a lot of Gregory Polanco in him….

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Jesse Winker would work just fine for this year if we had a reason to try and make the team better

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And shouldn't cost much.

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I’m not sold on Bleday, is it a breakout or a good streak…..

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Very well could have been a hot streak.

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I just wanna know if maybe the A's feel about Bae the same way they did Ruiz lol

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We could really use some highway robbery

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That would be awesome, we could maybe get Rooker and Bleday lol

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You know what else would be interesting is, the A's and Pirates could swap their comp picks (37th for 73rd), and that'd give the A's another roughly $1.5M in pool bonus.

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I thought that same thing.

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I thought about that, but I wanted to reduce the price the Athletics would want for Bleday. They get the pick which is worth about $2 mil on average, even more depending upon how they use it, plus possibly a high prospect. Keiner Delgado, 20, is a very talented switch hitting MI that hit for a 900 OPS in the FCL last year. The Pirates 10th best prospect in 2024 according to Fangraphs. It's a fair exchange and meets the needs of both parties.

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Bleday has an OPS of .630 over his last 30 games and even worse his last 15. He'll need to have another climb on his roller-coaster of a season before I'd just give a pick at 37 plus prospects.

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I had thought of Brenton Doyle, but he has some egregious splits, that are not good away from Coors. You'd be kind of "buying high", while also hoping you're buying low and somehow the Pirates hitting staff unlocks his bat away from Coors.

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"somehow the Pirates hitting staff unlocks his bat away from Coors."

probably have a better chance of winning the lottery than that happening 😂

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The only thing really keeping them "safe" at the moment, is there hasn't been a "hitter breakout" of someone whose left and been "fixed". I wanna dive through more, but in small sample, Cal and Diego are two hitters who had seemed to completely get away from what helped them succeed, only to go to new organizations and rekindle what they "forgot". No MLB translations yet in the way pitchers used to leave and "figure it out".

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