It’s so sad that the Pirates took Furtado over Klassen in the 6th round last year. And Brody Hopkins and Cade Smith were also taken just shorty after Furtado and pick 167. Hopkins even signed under slot too.
All the draft nerds out there the MLB Draft League started today. Some interesting players. Treyson Hughes is a player I would love to see the Pirates take and they could probably get him on Day 3 too. He’s playing for the State College Spikes. He started at 1B though which is weird cause he’s a good OF with a cannon arm in RF(he even plays CF).
He was really good at Mercer (decommitted from WVU to go to Mercer I don’t know why) but he struggled this year at Mississippi. Good frame, LHH, plus power, good plate discipline and I think the hit tool is better than he’s shown. Although his Sophomore year he hit .387 with more BB than K. I like the swing(check out some clips on Twitter and you’ll see what I mean) and he’s a really good athlete. And like I said, I think he could be a good “flyer” on Day 3.
Here is my observation from Peguero over the past week. There are some players that display the tools, but sometimes lack the focus or concentration needed. Hopefully the promotion will help him stay focused and he will display the MLB talent he has.
I wonder if Ronald Acuna includes the Braves on a few parlay bets (and loses the bets) while he is sitting out for the year, a) would it ever be made public and b) would they ban him for life?
OT but I'm wondering if we will be able to trade Reynolds in a year or 2 and get out of that contract. Never cared for that extension it looks worse now. Even if he improves his hitting to a 120 WRC+ range there isn't much value given how his defense has cratered the last couple years.
That whole demand to be traded 2 or 3 years before free agency was a little strange to me. The Pirates didn't have to reach a deal with him, but they did. I would like to see Reynolds take on more of a leadership role. That being said, his contract is more than fair. I'm sure there are around 25 teams that would gladly take Reynolds with his contract. I'm not sure how much teams would be willing to trade. What would you be willing to get in return for the trade?
Isn't the issue that the Pirates would almost certainly be in the 5-team grouping that *wouldn't* gladly take on Reynolds' contract were he not already with the club?
This'll have everything to do with how he ages, because he's started the contract about 1 WAR per year below expectation.
They're basically looking at paying him $15m per year in those last four for the kind of production they're currently getting out of Andrew McCutchen at a third of that.
They did it to engender good will. Call it a hometown player tax. Fans will be paying to have a familiar name more so than a good player.
It's the same conversation as Mitch Keller and his extension.
Over the last calendar year Mitch Keller has been worth 2.6 WAR (32 starts) and a full WAR of that has come over the last month.
A 27-28 yo that has already regressed to a 1.5-2 WAR starter probably ain't gonna be worth $20m/yr into his early 30s, which is where the consternation came from and remains similarly with Reynolds.
Mitch is currently raising the bar back up and we'll look for Reynolds to do the same or else the concerns will remain.
Just my opinion, but I think you are wildly underestimating Keller.
I'm not sure how you feel he is a 1.5-2 WAR starter when has already been worth 1.3 WAR in 12 starts and is trending to the 3.3 WAR starter from last season.
I think there will be a bit of ebb and flow concerning Mitch, but he might continue to mature and eliminate the lows. The dude has shown so much growth over the past couple + years and I think there's more in there.
Read my post again, I'm saying exactly what you are.
From June 2023 through April 2024 he ran off a string of 25 starts over which he was worth only 1.5 WAR.
This of course immediately followed his 5ish week heater in May of 2023 that turned around his career.
That kind of regression is an obvious concern amongst fans, which is why you saw it bubble up, but his last month of phenomenal starts has reset his level of performance and quieted those concerns.
If Reynolds similarly lights up in the second half of this year you'll similarly see the concerns die down about his own regression.
I just don't understand how Reynolds D has plummeted. Nonetheless, his numbers across the board are trending almost exactly like last season, with a slight drop in babip. That netted him a 2 WAR season.
Baseball is weird and I'll never be able to figure it out.
Currently Kevin F Newman is currently worth 7 times more WAR than Corbin Carroll. Such a random sport and why it's the best game on the planet.
Many will disagree, but with all things being equal, I find it safer to sign a hitter longterm than a pitcher. Now on the other hand, if you sign a young player longterm, you expect that player to improve. In this small sample, Keller is showing more improvement than Reynolds.
The weirdest part for me with Reynolds is how long he's underperformed.
We're approaching a year and a half of results far below what his mix of contact and walks implies. Almost the same exact wOBA-expected wOBA disparity last year and so far in 2024.
Conversation looks quite a bit different if he's sitting around 130 wRC+ right now!
I'm here in Indy for 2 more games, so I guess I won't see them anymore this trip. I would love to see some good call-ups from double A, but I doubt it will happen.
On Marcano, too bad he didn't have his agent lie for him.
From everything I've read, here is my guess or maybe my wish.
1) Marcano falls in the category of a person that has a gambling problem as he played table games at casinos as players.
2) He tore his achiles and was bored.
3) He started making sports bets while injured and bet 25 parlays, which included Pirates games. He lost all of those games.
4) I don't think he bet any games that he played.
5) If no team would touch a talents Barry Bonds (who still wanted to play) and no team will touch a talented Trevor Bauer, there is no chance a team will sign Tucapita Marcano.
So far we know: in order to get away with gambling in MLB the cut off is “be a better player than Marcano, but not necessary Ohtani level”.
I understand the slippery slope that is athletes gambling, but if you’re not betting on your team to lose WHILE you’re playing for the team, I don’t see the issue with it.
I see that the Ohtani scandal is closed. There seems to be several holes in the story. 1. How many bookies let an interpreter making maybe 100k work up a debt of millions of dollars? 2. How could Ohtani have no knowledge of his interpreter betting? 3. Why would Ohtani write a 7 figure check to an interpreter that was stealing from him and has no way of paying him back?
I'm no expert in foreign policy and obviously don't know Shohei from Adam but seems to me the simplest answer would be the difference between high-trust and low-trust societies.
I lived in Salt Lake for a bit a was told that Mormons are one of if not the most scammed demographics in America because they're so ideologically trusting. Easy marks, basically.
I don't fault Cherington and Shelton for Marcano's actions any more than I placed fault on Huntington and Hurdle for Vazquez's. However, it seems a bit ironic given how Cherington and Shelton emphasized changing the culture when they were hired. In any case, to be the first team to have a player receive a lifetime ban for gambling since the Reds and Rose is not a good look.
You do have to wonder if this puts some more pressure on Cherington though. It’s been alleged that bad publicity, as opposed to poor performance got Huntington fired.
You seriously think Nuttin was following the progress of former Pirates? He may have seen critical commentary on it somewhere, but I doubt he had a clue what Tyler Whatisname was doing in Tampa. Or even that Whatsisname had been a Pirate.
If he cared at all, it was strictly about what people were saying, not what was actually happening on the field. And only when people were saying really nasty things, not just complaining about losing.
Nutting wants to be popular with the media, which is especially understandable given his family's business background. As you say, there is no evidence that Nutting pays much attention to baseball beyond that.
What people seem to forget was that the 2019 Pirates were 44-45 at the All Star Break having just gone 5-2 against the Cubs and Brewers and nobody was suggesting Huntington should be fired because Glasnow was succeeding in Tampa.
The irony there is that Cole did become an ace when he left but we also helped Musgrove get his career going in the right direction. We should have gotten back better prospects than Moran and Martin but that can be said of most trades involving established major leaguers for package deals.
I whined for years about not getting enough "upside".
BUT
If they had gotten Forrest Whitley and turned him into exactly as productive a starter as they did Musgrove I suspect the trade would be universally lauded as a success.
Because the success came from the guy that was already overlooked, the entire thing gets less credit than it should.
To be clear, I personally have no idea why Huntington was fired beyond what’s been stated publicly. Your viewpoint is entirely fair, but there are some talking heads who would disagree with it.
The Marcano ordeal is probably a case of a kid having too much time in his hands, and everywhere you look now has a new betting site or ad. They've definitely brought in some characters otherwise.
I didnt realize Greensboro had such a nice record, guess im always just focussed on players in MiLB...Anyways, what cool pitching matchups this LA series, must watch tv for you folks👍👍👏👏
It’s so sad that the Pirates took Furtado over Klassen in the 6th round last year. And Brody Hopkins and Cade Smith were also taken just shorty after Furtado and pick 167. Hopkins even signed under slot too.
All the draft nerds out there the MLB Draft League started today. Some interesting players. Treyson Hughes is a player I would love to see the Pirates take and they could probably get him on Day 3 too. He’s playing for the State College Spikes. He started at 1B though which is weird cause he’s a good OF with a cannon arm in RF(he even plays CF).
He was really good at Mercer (decommitted from WVU to go to Mercer I don’t know why) but he struggled this year at Mississippi. Good frame, LHH, plus power, good plate discipline and I think the hit tool is better than he’s shown. Although his Sophomore year he hit .387 with more BB than K. I like the swing(check out some clips on Twitter and you’ll see what I mean) and he’s a really good athlete. And like I said, I think he could be a good “flyer” on Day 3.
exciting to see Peguero join the team
hoping he lights a fire like nick has
Here is my observation from Peguero over the past week. There are some players that display the tools, but sometimes lack the focus or concentration needed. Hopefully the promotion will help him stay focused and he will display the MLB talent he has.
I wonder if Ronald Acuna includes the Braves on a few parlay bets (and loses the bets) while he is sitting out for the year, a) would it ever be made public and b) would they ban him for life?
Are going full bore on gambling conspiracies today?
Well, I have 3 more hours until the free happy hour at my hotel starts and over 4 hours before I walk over to the Indy game.
Staying at the Drury?
Staybridge Inn.
Plenty of time to break out the conspiracy kit!
OT but I'm wondering if we will be able to trade Reynolds in a year or 2 and get out of that contract. Never cared for that extension it looks worse now. Even if he improves his hitting to a 120 WRC+ range there isn't much value given how his defense has cratered the last couple years.
That whole demand to be traded 2 or 3 years before free agency was a little strange to me. The Pirates didn't have to reach a deal with him, but they did. I would like to see Reynolds take on more of a leadership role. That being said, his contract is more than fair. I'm sure there are around 25 teams that would gladly take Reynolds with his contract. I'm not sure how much teams would be willing to trade. What would you be willing to get in return for the trade?
Isn't the issue that the Pirates would almost certainly be in the 5-team grouping that *wouldn't* gladly take on Reynolds' contract were he not already with the club?
This'll have everything to do with how he ages, because he's started the contract about 1 WAR per year below expectation.
They're basically looking at paying him $15m per year in those last four for the kind of production they're currently getting out of Andrew McCutchen at a third of that.
They did it to engender good will. Call it a hometown player tax. Fans will be paying to have a familiar name more so than a good player.
It's the same conversation as Mitch Keller and his extension.
Over the last calendar year Mitch Keller has been worth 2.6 WAR (32 starts) and a full WAR of that has come over the last month.
A 27-28 yo that has already regressed to a 1.5-2 WAR starter probably ain't gonna be worth $20m/yr into his early 30s, which is where the consternation came from and remains similarly with Reynolds.
Mitch is currently raising the bar back up and we'll look for Reynolds to do the same or else the concerns will remain.
Just my opinion, but I think you are wildly underestimating Keller.
I'm not sure how you feel he is a 1.5-2 WAR starter when has already been worth 1.3 WAR in 12 starts and is trending to the 3.3 WAR starter from last season.
I think there will be a bit of ebb and flow concerning Mitch, but he might continue to mature and eliminate the lows. The dude has shown so much growth over the past couple + years and I think there's more in there.
Read my post again, I'm saying exactly what you are.
From June 2023 through April 2024 he ran off a string of 25 starts over which he was worth only 1.5 WAR.
This of course immediately followed his 5ish week heater in May of 2023 that turned around his career.
That kind of regression is an obvious concern amongst fans, which is why you saw it bubble up, but his last month of phenomenal starts has reset his level of performance and quieted those concerns.
If Reynolds similarly lights up in the second half of this year you'll similarly see the concerns die down about his own regression.
All good.
This is where I am at...
Reynolds next few seasons 1.5-2 WAR
Keller next few seasons 3-3.5 WAR
I just don't understand how Reynolds D has plummeted. Nonetheless, his numbers across the board are trending almost exactly like last season, with a slight drop in babip. That netted him a 2 WAR season.
Baseball is weird and I'll never be able to figure it out.
Currently Kevin F Newman is currently worth 7 times more WAR than Corbin Carroll. Such a random sport and why it's the best game on the planet.
Many will disagree, but with all things being equal, I find it safer to sign a hitter longterm than a pitcher. Now on the other hand, if you sign a young player longterm, you expect that player to improve. In this small sample, Keller is showing more improvement than Reynolds.
The weirdest part for me with Reynolds is how long he's underperformed.
We're approaching a year and a half of results far below what his mix of contact and walks implies. Almost the same exact wOBA-expected wOBA disparity last year and so far in 2024.
Conversation looks quite a bit different if he's sitting around 130 wRC+ right now!
Looks like Davis has company with him, Suwinski and Peguero getting called up as well.
I'm here in Indy for 2 more games, so I guess I won't see them anymore this trip. I would love to see some good call-ups from double A, but I doubt it will happen.
On Marcano, too bad he didn't have his agent lie for him.
From everything I've read, here is my guess or maybe my wish.
1) Marcano falls in the category of a person that has a gambling problem as he played table games at casinos as players.
2) He tore his achiles and was bored.
3) He started making sports bets while injured and bet 25 parlays, which included Pirates games. He lost all of those games.
4) I don't think he bet any games that he played.
5) If no team would touch a talents Barry Bonds (who still wanted to play) and no team will touch a talented Trevor Bauer, there is no chance a team will sign Tucapita Marcano.
So far we know: in order to get away with gambling in MLB the cut off is “be a better player than Marcano, but not necessary Ohtani level”.
I understand the slippery slope that is athletes gambling, but if you’re not betting on your team to lose WHILE you’re playing for the team, I don’t see the issue with it.
I see that the Ohtani scandal is closed. There seems to be several holes in the story. 1. How many bookies let an interpreter making maybe 100k work up a debt of millions of dollars? 2. How could Ohtani have no knowledge of his interpreter betting? 3. Why would Ohtani write a 7 figure check to an interpreter that was stealing from him and has no way of paying him back?
I'm no expert in foreign policy and obviously don't know Shohei from Adam but seems to me the simplest answer would be the difference between high-trust and low-trust societies.
I lived in Salt Lake for a bit a was told that Mormons are one of if not the most scammed demographics in America because they're so ideologically trusting. Easy marks, basically.
I don't fault Cherington and Shelton for Marcano's actions any more than I placed fault on Huntington and Hurdle for Vazquez's. However, it seems a bit ironic given how Cherington and Shelton emphasized changing the culture when they were hired. In any case, to be the first team to have a player receive a lifetime ban for gambling since the Reds and Rose is not a good look.
How in the world, is Cherington & Shelton going to prevent Marcano from doing something unethical?
Marcano is a grown ass man accountable for his own mistakes.
Right, as I clearly said "I don't fault Cherington and Shelton..."
You do have to wonder if this puts some more pressure on Cherington though. It’s been alleged that bad publicity, as opposed to poor performance got Huntington fired.
I have no doubt the business with the nameless closer contributed to Huntington's demise. Doesn't mean it's fair. That's just how businesses operate.
Nobody's going to care about Marcano. The other four guys had no Pirate connections, so that's good.
That’s probably right. But I also wouldn’t underestimate the talent of this front office to generate additional bad publicity.
No doubt it's occurred to them that Marcano will be especially cheap to sign now.
3 days from today everyone will forget about Marcano and betting.
That's the 25 people who noticed in the first place.
I bet it is not even that many.
Huntington got fired because Nutting was tired of watching players go elsewhere and perform at a much higher level than they did with the Pirates.
this is why Tellez is still playing for us btw
You seriously think Nuttin was following the progress of former Pirates? He may have seen critical commentary on it somewhere, but I doubt he had a clue what Tyler Whatisname was doing in Tampa. Or even that Whatsisname had been a Pirate.
If he cared at all, it was strictly about what people were saying, not what was actually happening on the field. And only when people were saying really nasty things, not just complaining about losing.
Nutting wants to be popular with the media, which is especially understandable given his family's business background. As you say, there is no evidence that Nutting pays much attention to baseball beyond that.
What people seem to forget was that the 2019 Pirates were 44-45 at the All Star Break having just gone 5-2 against the Cubs and Brewers and nobody was suggesting Huntington should be fired because Glasnow was succeeding in Tampa.
specifically citing Gerrit Cole
The irony there is that Cole did become an ace when he left but we also helped Musgrove get his career going in the right direction. We should have gotten back better prospects than Moran and Martin but that can be said of most trades involving established major leaguers for package deals.
I remain a reformed Cole trade truther on this.
I whined for years about not getting enough "upside".
BUT
If they had gotten Forrest Whitley and turned him into exactly as productive a starter as they did Musgrove I suspect the trade would be universally lauded as a success.
Because the success came from the guy that was already overlooked, the entire thing gets less credit than it should.
I don't think Bob Nutting was watching Cole, Glas & Morton. I do believe that ppl inside the offices of Federal Street made him aware.
To be clear, I personally have no idea why Huntington was fired beyond what’s been stated publicly. Your viewpoint is entirely fair, but there are some talking heads who would disagree with it.
was weird that it was somehow decoupled from Hurdle firing
just testing the waters for how much bloodletting was really needed.
very much doubt he ever intended to flush the entire front office.
The Marcano ordeal is probably a case of a kid having too much time in his hands, and everywhere you look now has a new betting site or ad. They've definitely brought in some characters otherwise.
I didnt realize Greensboro had such a nice record, guess im always just focussed on players in MiLB...Anyways, what cool pitching matchups this LA series, must watch tv for you folks👍👍👏👏