Quite a handful of 2021 & 2022 draft picks (particularly college bats) that are not doing so well. Maybe why they decided, "Ahhhhh, screw it. Just draft any even remotely intriguing arm".
I know his head movement , as Melk mentions, was one of the key things I wrote about when I discussed his swing changes, a year ago? Two years? I don't remember. Could be one of the cases of the "process", where he's finally able to recreate his swing mechanics consistently. I know he had changed his stance quite a bit the one season, rather drastically at times. Looks more upright than in years past.
Yeah it sure does on mechanics, extended leg lift, hips not so open and very little head movement. Don't know if it was just this at bat but not nearly the upper cut in his swing.
Would it surprise anyone if we somehow traded Falter to the Rays, and he starts only throwing 2 pitches with his fastball 75% of the time and becomes elite for 18 months? Falter's 4 seamer is currently tied for 16th most valuable pitch in the majors at a +5 Run value, right there with Tarik Skubal on absolute basis.
I think I saw someone on Twitter say something along the lines of that. Like the Rays gonna trade for him, have him throw a cutter and he would just breakout
Without digging into it, I'm going to say I wonder if it comes down to lower GB and higher FB rates. xwOBA of .326 being expected, where as run value is based off of actual results and his .230 wOBA
And in that case, it's kind of the fire you fight with a guy whose fastball plays up in the zone (ie. JJ).
I thought you had typed wOBA instead of xwOBA, but then had to edit cause saw you typed out expected lol then had to edit cause I spelled results wrong
When Skenes is promoted, it will be a tough decision between Bubba Chandler and Anthony Solometo as to who gets promoted from AA to AAA. Finishing 2024 with Keller, Jones, Falter, Skenes, and . . . .?
I'd even argue Bubba has not done nearly enough but clearly has been better than Solo. The idea of promoting because they are highly rated prospects without performance to back it up always puzzles me. IMO their bar should be even higher as unfair as it seems.
I’m not much inclined to worry about what he’s throwing. What seems to work for him is to keep making adjustments until something works. Probably helps that he isn’t being told he HAS to throw a change. (Just 0.7% this year, per Pitch Info.)
Like all good starters, he has a plan A and a plan B. If he doesn't have his swing-and-miss stuff, he pitches to contact and gets groundballs. He is a solid and reliable starting pitcher.
Like, I don't want to get too excited about a now 23 year old's stats in A+, but I don't recall seeing many cases of someone going from a 30%+ k% and improving 20% down to an 11% rate. Is this cat changing his stripes?
(Read with an end of episode teaser voice) Lets find out......next time in AltonA!
A lot of 1b prospects, not just draft guys, but in minors have flamed out and missed and its a bit concerning when you look to be no where near how they were supposed to be: Yonder Alonso, Jon Singleton, Josh Bell, Bobby Bradley, Evan White, Andrew vaughn, Spencer Torkelson kinda,
What I want it Tommy White this year though. Give me power to dream on, and let Skenes be our Captain America First Avenger to assemble a winning ball club.
What happened to power hitting first basemen in general? They have to be at an all-time low this year. Six of the top 12 offensive players in fantasy league right now all play shortstop. That has usually been a position of speed, but now they hit homers as well.
Is the increased velocity making the 'lumbering' power hitters obsolete? To hit the heat you need incredible twitch and lumping the old time power hitter into a stereotype.. they are not as twitchy so they end up flaming out at the higher levels. This is a totally unproven and unresearched theory, so I will make a meme about it which immediately makes things a fact.
Selection bias + survivor bias + improved player dev?
Your best athletes are recruited for shortstop capabilities, competition filters out all but the best 30 or so in the world (many if not most of whom can really hit), and then modern player dev turns them into friggin monsters.
For sure, but when I make my way too early all star squads every year, I used to have too many good first basemen. The first basemen's numbers this year are really pathetic.
Or, if we do not have a Jones or Isaac, we do have a boatload of MI's and a small hotel full of pitching prospects that could possibly be used in trade to get any parts that we think are missing from our present lineup. The Yankees have CF's Judge, Grisham at the MLB level, and their top prospect is CF Jasson Dominguez (coming back from TJ in a month), and their #2 prospect is CF Spencer Jones. Who's their #3 Prospect? CF Everson Pereira, currently at AAA with about 16 EBH which I think includes 8 HR. Strikes out a bunch, but the power and CF defense are there from this RH hitting 23 year old.
Either the Yankees are not interested in moving Pereira or 29 front offices do not think much of him or he'd have been moved. I am thinking it is the latter.
Idk maybe I’m being uncharitable to them. A guy like Pereira, who has a weaker hitting tool would probably have a 62% K rate after being exposed to their offensive approach.
Altoona is very not good
and WHATS the DEAL with the PIZZA?
THAT'S. NOT. PIZZA.
It’s turned into the place where Pirates’ prospects reach the end of the road. Especially hitters.
Quite a handful of 2021 & 2022 draft picks (particularly college bats) that are not doing so well. Maybe why they decided, "Ahhhhh, screw it. Just draft any even remotely intriguing arm".
Four at bats, and Siani didn't strike out once. He has arrived
Wow, that clip Altoona posted is the first I've seen him this year.
Pretty substantial mechanical overhaul, to my eye:
https://www.milb.com/video/topic/playerid-686445
I know his head movement , as Melk mentions, was one of the key things I wrote about when I discussed his swing changes, a year ago? Two years? I don't remember. Could be one of the cases of the "process", where he's finally able to recreate his swing mechanics consistently. I know he had changed his stance quite a bit the one season, rather drastically at times. Looks more upright than in years past.
Always loved the swing itself.
Yeah it sure does on mechanics, extended leg lift, hips not so open and very little head movement. Don't know if it was just this at bat but not nearly the upper cut in his swing.
Bat path, first thing that caught my eye. He showed up SUPER steep after the draft and it looks like they're breaking him of it.
Dropped his k-rate almost 2/3rds, while maintaining his high bb% and *increased* his power.
Be pretty cool if this was real and we had a legit OF prospect.
Oh, I know. Been getting burned by "Is this a real OF prospect?" For 3-4 years (maybe more) straight
Stated without comment...
The three Pirate pitchers with the highest contact against are:
-Marco Gonzales
-Martin Perez
and (gulp)
-Mitch Keller
-15 ground outs
- 5 fly outs
- 5 k's
- 2 DPs
= 27 outs
they all count the same on the scorecard!
Noooo!!!! You were the chosen one, Mitch!!!!
Would it surprise anyone if we somehow traded Falter to the Rays, and he starts only throwing 2 pitches with his fastball 75% of the time and becomes elite for 18 months? Falter's 4 seamer is currently tied for 16th most valuable pitch in the majors at a +5 Run value, right there with Tarik Skubal on absolute basis.
I think I saw someone on Twitter say something along the lines of that. Like the Rays gonna trade for him, have him throw a cutter and he would just breakout
I was just thinking now is the time to package Falter and Nick G. No idea for who. Just noting they may have value atm
I know someone who would have value in Nick G.....the team in Pittsburgh!
I'd have to look for it again, but there was a guy that made that exact argument near end of spring
Didn't read all the comments, just posted something like that just now
If we get Tre Morgan and a lottery ticket I'd be ok with it.
Don't tease Nola about getting Tre Morgan lol
DO IT!!!! RIGHT! NOW!!
Damn!
I try not to be a rube about all the pitching metrics but this one stumps me.
The 4seamer has an expected wOBA of .326 but is also one of the best pitches in baseball?
Without digging into it, I'm going to say I wonder if it comes down to lower GB and higher FB rates. xwOBA of .326 being expected, where as run value is based off of actual results and his .230 wOBA
I think you're right, I pulled a bit of a fast one there going between actual and expected.
Guilty as charged. ;)
And in that case, it's kind of the fire you fight with a guy whose fastball plays up in the zone (ie. JJ).
I thought you had typed wOBA instead of xwOBA, but then had to edit cause saw you typed out expected lol then had to edit cause I spelled results wrong
paradox
Pirates just promoted a bunch of guys from Alt to Indy. Fill-out-the-roster type promotions. Gotta be some corresponding moves.
Any of them SP’s? If so, Skenes hug watch season is officially open for business.
No, although Harrington went to Bradenton on rehab.
When Skenes is promoted, it will be a tough decision between Bubba Chandler and Anthony Solometo as to who gets promoted from AA to AAA. Finishing 2024 with Keller, Jones, Falter, Skenes, and . . . .?
What in the world has Tony Solometo possibly done to earn a promotion?
I'd even argue Bubba has not done nearly enough but clearly has been better than Solo. The idea of promoting because they are highly rated prospects without performance to back it up always puzzles me. IMO their bar should be even higher as unfair as it seems.
LOVE that approach. Really neutralizes prospect rating bias IMO.
Bubba specifically feels like he's on the Jared Jones course. Stuff is there, command to let it excel lags behind.
Jones logged almost exactly twice as many minor league innings prior to promotion as Bubba currently has under him.
It'll probably be Sullivan.
Surprised there is no chatter about the gem Keller spun last night...
Jones-Skenes-Keller is a hell of a start to a rotation.
I like him when he goes full Lance Lynn. 80% hard shit last night.
yep. He didn't have the sweeper or curve, so he went HEAVY FB, sinker and cutter. Getting in on the hands and yielding a ton of GBs.
May is his month and he's about to go on a tear like we've never seen from Mitch.
I’m not much inclined to worry about what he’s throwing. What seems to work for him is to keep making adjustments until something works. Probably helps that he isn’t being told he HAS to throw a change. (Just 0.7% this year, per Pitch Info.)
Like all good starters, he has a plan A and a plan B. If he doesn't have his swing-and-miss stuff, he pitches to contact and gets groundballs. He is a solid and reliable starting pitcher.
Now if we can just get Reynolds, Hayes and Cruz playing to their capabilities this might be a team that can at least win a division .
I will take KeBryan's .248 average if he is flashing some power with it. Right now 1 homer in 125 at bats.
Cruz is getting there...patience is the key with him.
Oneil LaRoche
please no. What if Oneil shows up next season wearing camo and bringing his son to the clubhouse?
we party.
Maybe he's warming up with the weather. Was definitely a welcome sight to see
Can we petition for Keller to always wear that ballcap? Very high correlation with wearing it and CG pitched.
Keiner Delgado to Bradenton. Grand slams are automatic promotions.
Please tell me he's catholic and his middle names are "Ralph" and "Carlos".
Siani in Double-A! Per Andrew Destin. He'll be in Pittsburgh by July (/s)
He finally makes it to AA. Now we get to see if he has finally cracked the code or not.
Like, I don't want to get too excited about a now 23 year old's stats in A+, but I don't recall seeing many cases of someone going from a 30%+ k% and improving 20% down to an 11% rate. Is this cat changing his stripes?
(Read with an end of episode teaser voice) Lets find out......next time in AltonA!
even dropped his underlying swinging strike rate from 14% to 9%.
It would be very wonderful to see a hitter breakthrough, and actually hold
Would love an interview where the PA native outlines what, if anything, changed or clicked this year. *Nudge Nudge to Authors*
MURPH!!!!! When's your Altoona trip?!?! lol I need to see if Cody is still planning on making a Toona trip
Whelp. I had a Greensboro trip planned next month, and he was at the top of my list lol. So much for that lol
See, you need to go to Altoona, and formulate questions around asking about his "process through the minors".
Would it count for Siani home town if he grew up outside Philly when he goes to Altoona?
Maybe??? lol
It would be nice to see us draft a Spencer Jones or Xavier Isaac sometime this decade.
That was Will Craig.
That was our chance.
That is what we get.
A lot of 1b prospects, not just draft guys, but in minors have flamed out and missed and its a bit concerning when you look to be no where near how they were supposed to be: Yonder Alonso, Jon Singleton, Josh Bell, Bobby Bradley, Evan White, Andrew vaughn, Spencer Torkelson kinda,
What I want it Tommy White this year though. Give me power to dream on, and let Skenes be our Captain America First Avenger to assemble a winning ball club.
What happened to power hitting first basemen in general? They have to be at an all-time low this year. Six of the top 12 offensive players in fantasy league right now all play shortstop. That has usually been a position of speed, but now they hit homers as well.
Is the increased velocity making the 'lumbering' power hitters obsolete? To hit the heat you need incredible twitch and lumping the old time power hitter into a stereotype.. they are not as twitchy so they end up flaming out at the higher levels. This is a totally unproven and unresearched theory, so I will make a meme about it which immediately makes things a fact.
Selection bias + survivor bias + improved player dev?
Your best athletes are recruited for shortstop capabilities, competition filters out all but the best 30 or so in the world (many if not most of whom can really hit), and then modern player dev turns them into friggin monsters.
For sure, but when I make my way too early all star squads every year, I used to have too many good first basemen. The first basemen's numbers this year are really pathetic.
i can't quit these dudes either.
Damn. Couldn’t even get the left handed edition.
We just need Lonnie to stay healthy, and replicate his first few weeks to all the weeks
Or, if we do not have a Jones or Isaac, we do have a boatload of MI's and a small hotel full of pitching prospects that could possibly be used in trade to get any parts that we think are missing from our present lineup. The Yankees have CF's Judge, Grisham at the MLB level, and their top prospect is CF Jasson Dominguez (coming back from TJ in a month), and their #2 prospect is CF Spencer Jones. Who's their #3 Prospect? CF Everson Pereira, currently at AAA with about 16 EBH which I think includes 8 HR. Strikes out a bunch, but the power and CF defense are there from this RH hitting 23 year old.
Either the Yankees are not interested in moving Pereira or 29 front offices do not think much of him or he'd have been moved. I am thinking it is the latter.
My God.
I'm here for the daily dose of Mel and CF Everson Pereira
He never disappoints! I do love the daily Mel bulletin.
Leaderboard for redundancy...
1. Mel and his Everson Pereira love affair
2. Auroras and his scouting report on Olivares
My goal is to be third in support of Tommy Tanks
Copypasta or AI bots =)
RE Pereira, this front office has zero interest in a 30 hit tool. They think contact=power and actual game power=bad.
Additionally, Pereira is not the Yankees 3rd ranked prospect.
This is mental patient shenanigans.
He also signed for $1.5 million, not $5 million that 1. makes a big difference lol.
Idk maybe I’m being uncharitable to them. A guy like Pereira, who has a weaker hitting tool would probably have a 62% K rate after being exposed to their offensive approach.
37% k-rate in AAA doesn't translate ever. This is some bizarre fantasy fetish.
If they want to like Pereira that’s their business. But he absolutely wouldn’t work out under this system. He’d constantly strikeout.
I think you are missing the point...
He already is a constant K
We would inevitably turn him into this decade's "Big Country" Brad Eldred.
And not turn him into Cole Tucker.