Was just checking the FG leaderboards and I knew Jack Wilson's son was getting a lot of buzz but wow, he is 15th in MLB in WAR!
After checking to see who some surprising leaders are, I checked the other extreme as Reynolds is 157th out of 160 qualified players in WAR. Our old friend Josh Bell is 158th.
Other notable below-replacement level regulars are Muncy, Yelich, Crews, Semien, Santander, Joey Ortiz (who made the Brewers look smart last year), and Jordan Walker.
The Jacob Wilson thing is incredible. The general thinking going into the draft was he would be a great defensive player who lacked the power to be a credible contributor on offense. Instead he has an amazing hit tool and has shown surprising power. Credit to the A’s for that pick.
I'm genuinely curious if they lucked out or are in some way responsible for his explosive development and if the latter would personally set up a Go Fund Me to hire that sumbitch.
I hear and read a lot about how robust the staffs are for teams like the Dodgers, Rays, Guardians, etc. I hear on a podcast that the Dodgers have something like a 3:1 player to staff ratio across the whole system (unconfirmed). I would almost rather when we trade Heaney, we boost the non-player budget by ~2 million and bring in 20 extra scouts and staff across the org. Shopping in the 1-3 million dollar range for free agents clearly isn't going to provide any benefit anyway
I'd take one less Frazier signing for that extra staff!
The talkin' baseball guys were discussing how to fix the Rockies and they brought up the idea of paying someone like Luhnow (out of the game, but undoubtedly knows his stuff) to perform a full organization audit to get some real info on where they are lacking. Im not sure Bob would go for that but that's probably one way to actually try to fix this org
One step higher; the owner always selects the consultant and sets the scope of any study. no wonder the result typically aligns with what the owner wants to see.
This is also a great point and honestly one I haven't thought much about. When we brought in that service to hire BC, Nutting probably put some significant constraints on their process
This is awesome! My son and I were talking last night about the US roster and how they needed to do better than have an aged Adam Wainwright lead the rotation in this tournament.
Of course, some might worry about injury risk, but this is probably our best chance to see Skenes pitch meaningful innings over the next couple years. If you haven’t watched the WBC in the past and you love baseball, make this appointment TV (and not just the US games)!
I really got into the WBC in '23 and will be even more excited for '26 now that Skenes will be pitching. The Ohtani-Trout matchup in the final was probably the single best baseball moment in the last 3+ years.
Pirates played all the hits last night. 2-9 with RISP and, if I'm remembering correctly, neither hit left the infield. Failing to score 4 or more, multiple letdowns in the bullpen, B-Rey GIDP, bad baserunning... anything I'm missing?
To be fair, I said to my non-fan wife that I couldn't recall a game when it really came down to inches as much as last night's game did. The stolen HR, the near plays by the third basemen with Triolo stopping but Acuna scoring by an inch or two, the ball that hit 2nd base leading to the "error" on IKF, plays at 1B, the SBs at 2B, the HBP that led to a run, and of course the missed ball/strike calls but they're always part of the game (it's just that last night they changed likely Ks to baserunners).
If Bart's drive was an inch or two higher and Lindor's grounder hadn't hit the bag, we likely would have won. But as I said to my wife, that's why they play 162 games. Last night's game wasn't the problem with our season; it's all those many other games where we weren't competitive.
They talk about it as if they were the philosophers of baseball, but they do nothing to correct the problem. Mets score from 2B on the exact same play that the Pirates fail to score from 2B, because the Pirates have a buffoon as their 3B coach. Instead of talking about it. Do something... fire Rabelo and Brock and get real coaches.
Acuna is faster than Triolo and still was only safe by an inch or two.
The decision to not send Triolo is interesting to consider--on the one hand you had Reynolds coming up. OTOH, you had Reynolds coming up.
In any case, Triolo probably would have been out but only because he started slowing down as he approached 3B and that could be attributed to Rabelo not being decisive enough soon enough. Maybe Rabelo doesn't think quickly enough to be a good fit as 3B coach.
With 2 outs, Triolo has to be sprinting towards 3rd at the crack of the bat. And Rabelo has to be waving immediately once he sees the ball ricocheting off 3B glove. Neither one of those things happened. If they do, he’s safe by a mile.
Just the latest in long line of mental errors that have plagued this team for a long, long time.
When watching well coached teams, I don’t ever see mental errors.
Triolo was looking over his shoulder the entire play, which slowed him considerably, because Rabelo was high on drugs as per his usual.
Also, who taught Henry Davis to try to field plays at the plate from behind home plate? Do they have position coaches? I know that they have bullpen catchers in every conceivable position in the organization, but then again, bullpen catchers never actually have to make plays in the field. Maybe someone who actually did make a play in the field once to coach? Just a thought.
I was taught to have my left foot on the third base corner of the plate when receiving a non force out. You then adjust to the throw but just had a mental marker of the shortest distance for the runner.
This part about him looking over my shoulder was what had me so mad last night. Triolo got 0 help, hell even if he threw up the stop sign at least it would have been something, instead Rabelo just stood and watched. I still think send him and if he's out tip your cap to Lindor for a great throw. Keep in mind IKF made a tremendous throw to make that play close. When you can't hit you have to find other ways to try to force the issue. I'd rather that than the passive nature of the team all around.
Yeah, I had the same thoughts that Triolo should have been watching Rabelo and not the play, and that Davis wasn't positioned as well as he could have been.
The lackadaisical coaching, if that was the case as it frequently appears to have been, can't be overturned overnight. I'm giving Kelly a chance and hope he outlasts Cherington, which could happen given how much Nutting seems to like Kelly.
They fired Habbib or whatever his name is for "uncoordinating their offense." Fire Rabelo and Brock and maybe I will start to think differently. Until then, Kelly=Shelton.
I checked their respective BsR values at FG and Triolo is good with a 0.7 but Acuna is pretty amazing with a 2.2 which is 5th among players with at least 100 PAs. His BsR per PA would be 2nd to Buxton in MLB--the kid knows how to run the bases!
That surprises me but I'll take Statcast's word for it. I do agree that Triolo is fast on straight-line runs like on the catch he made the following half inning. Maybe it's just his size makes him look slower than he is.
With Roman Anthony ranked 1st and Bubba 2nd, the Red Sox needing pitching and us needing hitting, would you trade Bubba for Anthony? What about Bubba for one of the other close-to-MLB hitters in the top 10?
I don't think I would because we have Bubba for two years beyond what we have Skenes for and we'll need someone to anchor the rotation for the post-Cherington glory years. But it would be very tempting.
Speaking of Skenes, we're now 3-6 in his starts though he's pitched well enough for that to be at least flipped. If it was flipped, then we'd be 20-25 which obviously is bad but not so bad that we'd be without hope of getting back into contention.
Honestly, I’d make that trade. The injury concern with pitchers is too much for me personally. That is my biggest issue with the current regimes “we’ll just flood the system with pitching and worry about hitting later” mentality. I know we as fans dream on a rotation of Skenes/Jones/Chandler/Barco/whoever, but the likelihood they’re all healthy and pitching effectively at the same time is probably pretty slim.
There’s an obvious trade history between the Pirates and Red Sox, as well as the needs for each team you outlined. However, I’m sure both teams would want a kings ransom for each player and both sides would probably say no to the deal.
GMs and fans can't help but fall in love with their own prospects, so I think you're right that both sides would say no. Plus, our risk-averse GM would be unlikely to stick his neck out on such a high-profile trade, at least not until he was desperate for keeping his job. It would be like a hail Mary to save his job.
Yeah that’s obviously the big concern now is that BC is going to pull the trigger on a lopsided deal for the sake of saving his job. I wouldn’t exactly categorize an Anthony for Chandler swap as such, but hindsight is always 20/20. If Chandler were to become a perennial Cy Young contender and Anthony flopped, we would never hear the end of it. Just like the Archer deal…
I would trade Bubba for Anthony. That is not a knock on Bubba more my opinion that pitchers are riskier and their profiles (basically could/should be in MLB now) are similar so it is not a trade of a more certain asset for some A level 'might become something'. It costs to get and if the 'experts' think they are both that good then let's get a bat since the Pirates seem to be better at developing pitchers (realizing there is not another Bubba in the pipeline).
Last night was yet another instance where they could've just as easily won, but instead lost. Beginning with 3 games in the marlins series at the start of the year, there have been 6,8, maybe 10 games where they simply couldn't get it done. If they had flipped even half of those games......but if ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas.
The fact is the team simply lacks the talent to execute in those moments where games are decided and the record is what the record is.
It is not bad luck. Two identical plays: runner on second, groundball off the glove of the 3Bman, one for each team. For the Pirates, Triolo is watching the play, turning his head multiple times, because he does not trust his 3B coach and is getting no help from the 3B coach. He is slowed by having to watch the play and holds at third. Acuña, on the exact same play, runs full speed, gets assistance from the 3B coach who makes the right decision, and he scores. That is the difference in the game. Good baserunning vs. bad baserunning and coaching.
Mets in the 9th have runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out. Alonso hits the ball in the air and gets the sacrifice. The Pirates don't balls in the air and rarely far enough for sacrifice flies. That's the difference in the game. Again... not bad luck.
And we've all been grieving the death of hitting in Pittsburgh. That said... If you stuck O'Cruz behind Joey Bart above, you begin to see possibilities.
IKF was good yesterday. Loved seeing Cutch in left. If you got Hooorvitz back and Nick the Stick back directly, the lineup will suddenly be ... um... less full of holes.
Gorski was lost last night. Ofer with three Ks. Ouch. That's just the sort of protection a cleanup hitter needs. I mean, I'm glad Gorski is getting at bats if the alternative is watching Tommy Pham (who needs released). I thought it was a mirage, but Canario and Triolo both got hits... What a world.
But take that lineup and go like this...
3B - Ke' Hayes
RF - B-Ray
LF - 'Cutch
CF - O'Cruz
C - Bart
1B - Hoooorvitz
2B - Nick the Stick
SS - IKF
DH - Endy
And I'd say you have something. At least enough to compete. Which was my thinking before games counted. Lookit'... this season is shot. Bucs got a decent baseball guy in the dugout for a manager, but he's right now being dealt the same sorry hand the last guy had to play with.
Pitching puts us over the hump.
I'm'a start counting games when the lineup is healthy and Bubba surfaces with this bunch. Then get outta the fast lane, grandma, we're gettin' ready for NEXT year.
Reynolds doesn’t deserve to be in the 2 hole right now. It’s coaching malpractice to keep him there. He needs to be moved down in the order to hopefully light a fire in him.
If Kelly wants to earn players respect, he needs to let them know the status quo isn’t working. And shining a bright light on an under performing star is a perfect place to start shaking things up.
I'm sympathetic to this argument, but am also left super bummed that one can argue the bigger failure of this offense is not Pham and Frazier but Kebryan's back being toast and Reynolds looking like he's 40 instead of 30.
That's a bigger issue to me than a couple failed 1-yr contracts for dudes who were never reasonably expected to be huge offensive factors to begin with.
The extensions for Hayes, Reynolds and Keller were much ballyhooed at the time of their signings. I felt the Reynolds signing was Nutting-driven to a degree, and perhaps to a lesser extent, Keller’s was too.
I was not thrilled but was admittedly fine with all of them at the time. They were betting on the come with Hayes and Keller’s contract seemed in line with that of a 3rd starter. With Reynolds, they are banking avoiding a sharp age decline, but his defense cratering so quickly means he needs to continue to produce with the bat.
I’m moving way off your point above, but given how these three have performed since signing their extensions, I think an argument can be made that all three, individually, will be a net negative for the team.
If the Pirates want to do further extensions with, say, Cruz or Chandler or Barco, they’ll probably need to flip one or two of the original three at some point.
I liked the extensions at the time, as I was probably hopelessly optimistic about all three building on their initial success to varying degrees, although I was probably least enthused with Reynolds.
Hayes didn’t work out, but I would do that deal again in a heartbeat as it’s pretty clear injuries sank his ability. Reynolds and Keller look more like average regulars (or slightly above average regulars). Good guys to have, but not “God, we’re screwed if these guys leave.”
Another thing? Hayes was 25 when he signed, both Reynolds and Keller were 27 (although Keller was about to turn 28). A few years difference regarding when they sign is not nothing.
My take on the three contracts and could be wrong.
1) Hayes- In about 100 plate appearances, when Hayes hit .376 and a 1.124 ops his rookie year and only a .257 avg and .689 ops, I still thought it was a good signing. Very refreshing at the time. I think it is a fair price and some other team will take it off of our hands.
2) Reynolds-When Reynolds was supposedly asking for a trade 2 or 3 years before free agency, I found it odd Bob worked out a deal. I figured that Bob was ready to start spending money on an important piece of our team, but in no way was he the guy we needed to build around. Reynolds will get hot again, but not sure we can get a team to take that contract.
3) Keller- It almost seemed like a nice gesture on Bob's part, but again he is an important piece, not an ace to build around. If he can get going again, the Pirates can get a taker.
These are a negative value for the team, but unless the Pirates use those dollars to make the team better it doesn't matter.
Not that I am lobbying to get rid of any of them, just looking at values. Who knows? Maybe when the new cba after 2026, the Pirates will be able to afford all 3 of them, plus extend Cruz and Skenes. :)
very, VERY much agree and said so at the time. extensions from a club like the Pirates are just taking place of free agent budget in the years of extension and at worse even impact guys in arb.
The Rays essentially use extensions to add trade value when they inevitably still trade said player in what would be their arb years. The Pirates hold onto the extended guy to the point where their contract obligation matches or exceeds market value. Cutch and Marte have been the exceptions, they were at least able to get *something* for them in their extended years.
Yeah, I’m not sure it’s possible to appreciate how these extensions might hamstring the team if they all don’t start performing/exceeding the value of their contracts.
His on bas percentage is the 4th best in our line-up, so let's rule out the 5 guys hitting under .210. This was IKF's first game back. Bart is a slow catcher. That leaves Hayes or Cutch. Hayes actually got 2 hits last night and has hit .320 this week. I would vote for Cutch, but not as crazy of a decision for this line-up. There are probably bigger questions with our line-up than Key.
The most dangerous bat-Cruz—needs the most at bats. Period. Who do you want coming up in the 9th in any situation? Cruz or Hayes? The answer is obvious. More at bats means more opportunities to do damage. Cruz batting leadoff is one of the things Shelton got right.
Was just checking the FG leaderboards and I knew Jack Wilson's son was getting a lot of buzz but wow, he is 15th in MLB in WAR!
After checking to see who some surprising leaders are, I checked the other extreme as Reynolds is 157th out of 160 qualified players in WAR. Our old friend Josh Bell is 158th.
Other notable below-replacement level regulars are Muncy, Yelich, Crews, Semien, Santander, Joey Ortiz (who made the Brewers look smart last year), and Jordan Walker.
i had him #1 over Skenes
"striking out is not ok"
The Jacob Wilson thing is incredible. The general thinking going into the draft was he would be a great defensive player who lacked the power to be a credible contributor on offense. Instead he has an amazing hit tool and has shown surprising power. Credit to the A’s for that pick.
I'm genuinely curious if they lucked out or are in some way responsible for his explosive development and if the latter would personally set up a Go Fund Me to hire that sumbitch.
I hear and read a lot about how robust the staffs are for teams like the Dodgers, Rays, Guardians, etc. I hear on a podcast that the Dodgers have something like a 3:1 player to staff ratio across the whole system (unconfirmed). I would almost rather when we trade Heaney, we boost the non-player budget by ~2 million and bring in 20 extra scouts and staff across the org. Shopping in the 1-3 million dollar range for free agents clearly isn't going to provide any benefit anyway
BA continually makes reference on their podcasts that LAD and Tampa have the most scouts. I wonder if that helps their systems stay healthy…
Healthy as in physical health or health as in well stocked? Seems like those teams are constantly getting more internationally and later in the draft
Stocked. Both teams actually seem to be at the forefront of spin and velocity for arms, churning through them.
what, and add to the $167m Bob's paying analysts every year?
I'd take one less Frazier signing for that extra staff!
The talkin' baseball guys were discussing how to fix the Rockies and they brought up the idea of paying someone like Luhnow (out of the game, but undoubtedly knows his stuff) to perform a full organization audit to get some real info on where they are lacking. Im not sure Bob would go for that but that's probably one way to actually try to fix this org
If memory serves Bob ostensibly did that after the Huntington/Coonelly implosion and yet conveniently ended up with a photocopy.
Part of me wonders if he did the audit and then just didn't implement the changes because of money or effort or time and thus we got no results
One step higher; the owner always selects the consultant and sets the scope of any study. no wonder the result typically aligns with what the owner wants to see.
This is also a great point and honestly one I haven't thought much about. When we brought in that service to hire BC, Nutting probably put some significant constraints on their process
It depends on who does the audit. Luhnow would be one of the first people whom I would call.
At least Skenes will be playing for a contender next year:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45126311/pirates-paul-skenes-joining-us-world-baseball-classic
This is awesome! My son and I were talking last night about the US roster and how they needed to do better than have an aged Adam Wainwright lead the rotation in this tournament.
Of course, some might worry about injury risk, but this is probably our best chance to see Skenes pitch meaningful innings over the next couple years. If you haven’t watched the WBC in the past and you love baseball, make this appointment TV (and not just the US games)!
I really got into the WBC in '23 and will be even more excited for '26 now that Skenes will be pitching. The Ohtani-Trout matchup in the final was probably the single best baseball moment in the last 3+ years.
My son is a big Trea Turner fan. His home run in the preceding game was probably our favorite baseball moment, yet!
you win the Great Dad Award.
Pirates played all the hits last night. 2-9 with RISP and, if I'm remembering correctly, neither hit left the infield. Failing to score 4 or more, multiple letdowns in the bullpen, B-Rey GIDP, bad baserunning... anything I'm missing?
Kelton talked about “game of inches” post-game. Can’t leave that out.
To be fair, I said to my non-fan wife that I couldn't recall a game when it really came down to inches as much as last night's game did. The stolen HR, the near plays by the third basemen with Triolo stopping but Acuna scoring by an inch or two, the ball that hit 2nd base leading to the "error" on IKF, plays at 1B, the SBs at 2B, the HBP that led to a run, and of course the missed ball/strike calls but they're always part of the game (it's just that last night they changed likely Ks to baserunners).
If Bart's drive was an inch or two higher and Lindor's grounder hadn't hit the bag, we likely would have won. But as I said to my wife, that's why they play 162 games. Last night's game wasn't the problem with our season; it's all those many other games where we weren't competitive.
If you can't hit the ball out of the infield, your ceiling is going to be games that come down to inches.
They talk about it as if they were the philosophers of baseball, but they do nothing to correct the problem. Mets score from 2B on the exact same play that the Pirates fail to score from 2B, because the Pirates have a buffoon as their 3B coach. Instead of talking about it. Do something... fire Rabelo and Brock and get real coaches.
Acuna is faster than Triolo and still was only safe by an inch or two.
The decision to not send Triolo is interesting to consider--on the one hand you had Reynolds coming up. OTOH, you had Reynolds coming up.
In any case, Triolo probably would have been out but only because he started slowing down as he approached 3B and that could be attributed to Rabelo not being decisive enough soon enough. Maybe Rabelo doesn't think quickly enough to be a good fit as 3B coach.
With 2 outs, Triolo has to be sprinting towards 3rd at the crack of the bat. And Rabelo has to be waving immediately once he sees the ball ricocheting off 3B glove. Neither one of those things happened. If they do, he’s safe by a mile.
Just the latest in long line of mental errors that have plagued this team for a long, long time.
When watching well coached teams, I don’t ever see mental errors.
There was only one out.
Triolo was looking over his shoulder the entire play, which slowed him considerably, because Rabelo was high on drugs as per his usual.
Also, who taught Henry Davis to try to field plays at the plate from behind home plate? Do they have position coaches? I know that they have bullpen catchers in every conceivable position in the organization, but then again, bullpen catchers never actually have to make plays in the field. Maybe someone who actually did make a play in the field once to coach? Just a thought.
I was taught to have my left foot on the third base corner of the plate when receiving a non force out. You then adjust to the throw but just had a mental marker of the shortest distance for the runner.
I was taught to back up the catcher on those plays (but I played pitcher and 1B... lol).
This part about him looking over my shoulder was what had me so mad last night. Triolo got 0 help, hell even if he threw up the stop sign at least it would have been something, instead Rabelo just stood and watched. I still think send him and if he's out tip your cap to Lindor for a great throw. Keep in mind IKF made a tremendous throw to make that play close. When you can't hit you have to find other ways to try to force the issue. I'd rather that than the passive nature of the team all around.
IKF would have had him at the plate if Davis was not wandering around behind the plate and trying to make the play from there.
Yeah, I had the same thoughts that Triolo should have been watching Rabelo and not the play, and that Davis wasn't positioned as well as he could have been.
The lackadaisical coaching, if that was the case as it frequently appears to have been, can't be overturned overnight. I'm giving Kelly a chance and hope he outlasts Cherington, which could happen given how much Nutting seems to like Kelly.
They fired Habbib or whatever his name is for "uncoordinating their offense." Fire Rabelo and Brock and maybe I will start to think differently. Until then, Kelly=Shelton.
Some odd ideas here about Triolo's speed. Statcast has it as 80th percentile. Acuna? 60th percentile.
I checked their respective BsR values at FG and Triolo is good with a 0.7 but Acuna is pretty amazing with a 2.2 which is 5th among players with at least 100 PAs. His BsR per PA would be 2nd to Buxton in MLB--the kid knows how to run the bases!
That's kind of the point. The Mets know how to run the bases and can do it well. The Pirates cannot.
That surprises me but I'll take Statcast's word for it. I do agree that Triolo is fast on straight-line runs like on the catch he made the following half inning. Maybe it's just his size makes him look slower than he is.
The MLB Transactions page for today just drained a little life from me:
"Pittsburgh Pirates activated Tommy Pham."
With Roman Anthony ranked 1st and Bubba 2nd, the Red Sox needing pitching and us needing hitting, would you trade Bubba for Anthony? What about Bubba for one of the other close-to-MLB hitters in the top 10?
I don't think I would because we have Bubba for two years beyond what we have Skenes for and we'll need someone to anchor the rotation for the post-Cherington glory years. But it would be very tempting.
Speaking of Skenes, we're now 3-6 in his starts though he's pitched well enough for that to be at least flipped. If it was flipped, then we'd be 20-25 which obviously is bad but not so bad that we'd be without hope of getting back into contention.
Honestly, I’d make that trade. The injury concern with pitchers is too much for me personally. That is my biggest issue with the current regimes “we’ll just flood the system with pitching and worry about hitting later” mentality. I know we as fans dream on a rotation of Skenes/Jones/Chandler/Barco/whoever, but the likelihood they’re all healthy and pitching effectively at the same time is probably pretty slim.
There’s an obvious trade history between the Pirates and Red Sox, as well as the needs for each team you outlined. However, I’m sure both teams would want a kings ransom for each player and both sides would probably say no to the deal.
GMs and fans can't help but fall in love with their own prospects, so I think you're right that both sides would say no. Plus, our risk-averse GM would be unlikely to stick his neck out on such a high-profile trade, at least not until he was desperate for keeping his job. It would be like a hail Mary to save his job.
Yeah that’s obviously the big concern now is that BC is going to pull the trigger on a lopsided deal for the sake of saving his job. I wouldn’t exactly categorize an Anthony for Chandler swap as such, but hindsight is always 20/20. If Chandler were to become a perennial Cy Young contender and Anthony flopped, we would never hear the end of it. Just like the Archer deal…
I would trade Bubba for Anthony. That is not a knock on Bubba more my opinion that pitchers are riskier and their profiles (basically could/should be in MLB now) are similar so it is not a trade of a more certain asset for some A level 'might become something'. It costs to get and if the 'experts' think they are both that good then let's get a bat since the Pirates seem to be better at developing pitchers (realizing there is not another Bubba in the pipeline).
Last night was yet another instance where they could've just as easily won, but instead lost. Beginning with 3 games in the marlins series at the start of the year, there have been 6,8, maybe 10 games where they simply couldn't get it done. If they had flipped even half of those games......but if ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas.
The fact is the team simply lacks the talent to execute in those moments where games are decided and the record is what the record is.
It is not bad luck. Two identical plays: runner on second, groundball off the glove of the 3Bman, one for each team. For the Pirates, Triolo is watching the play, turning his head multiple times, because he does not trust his 3B coach and is getting no help from the 3B coach. He is slowed by having to watch the play and holds at third. Acuña, on the exact same play, runs full speed, gets assistance from the 3B coach who makes the right decision, and he scores. That is the difference in the game. Good baserunning vs. bad baserunning and coaching.
Mets in the 9th have runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out. Alonso hits the ball in the air and gets the sacrifice. The Pirates don't balls in the air and rarely far enough for sacrifice flies. That's the difference in the game. Again... not bad luck.
Yes, they match their Pythagorean record exactly so it's hard to make the case that they should be any better off than they are.
You can make the case by using their BaseRuns record, a more technical win estimator, in which they're 3 games over par.
17-25 is still by no means "good", but starts to build a picture of a team that's not one of the absolute worst in the league.
There's a fatalism that can set in which *justifies* a lack of action or worse a teardown and i think it's, frankly, bullshit.
I don't know this pythagorean record stuff.....is it A squared + B squared = we suck?
Saw the Bucs' lineup last night.
*
3B - Ke’Bryan Hayes
RF - Bryan Reynolds
LF - Andrew McCutchen
DH - Joey Bart
1B - Matt Gorski
SS - Isiah Kiner-Falefa
CF - Alexander Canario
2B - Jared Triolo
C - Henry Davis
*
*
And we've all been grieving the death of hitting in Pittsburgh. That said... If you stuck O'Cruz behind Joey Bart above, you begin to see possibilities.
IKF was good yesterday. Loved seeing Cutch in left. If you got Hooorvitz back and Nick the Stick back directly, the lineup will suddenly be ... um... less full of holes.
Gorski was lost last night. Ofer with three Ks. Ouch. That's just the sort of protection a cleanup hitter needs. I mean, I'm glad Gorski is getting at bats if the alternative is watching Tommy Pham (who needs released). I thought it was a mirage, but Canario and Triolo both got hits... What a world.
But take that lineup and go like this...
3B - Ke' Hayes
RF - B-Ray
LF - 'Cutch
CF - O'Cruz
C - Bart
1B - Hoooorvitz
2B - Nick the Stick
SS - IKF
DH - Endy
And I'd say you have something. At least enough to compete. Which was my thinking before games counted. Lookit'... this season is shot. Bucs got a decent baseball guy in the dugout for a manager, but he's right now being dealt the same sorry hand the last guy had to play with.
Pitching puts us over the hump.
I'm'a start counting games when the lineup is healthy and Bubba surfaces with this bunch. Then get outta the fast lane, grandma, we're gettin' ready for NEXT year.
-----------------------------------------
"Ickity- Ackity Ooph."
-Wabbit
Reynolds doesn’t deserve to be in the 2 hole right now. It’s coaching malpractice to keep him there. He needs to be moved down in the order to hopefully light a fire in him.
If Kelly wants to earn players respect, he needs to let them know the status quo isn’t working. And shining a bright light on an under performing star is a perfect place to start shaking things up.
Who is this and why are you using that wabbit sign off?
I only know and respect one Rabbit around these parts
FRAUD!
🤣😂🤣
I'm sympathetic to this argument, but am also left super bummed that one can argue the bigger failure of this offense is not Pham and Frazier but Kebryan's back being toast and Reynolds looking like he's 40 instead of 30.
That's a bigger issue to me than a couple failed 1-yr contracts for dudes who were never reasonably expected to be huge offensive factors to begin with.
The extensions for Hayes, Reynolds and Keller were much ballyhooed at the time of their signings. I felt the Reynolds signing was Nutting-driven to a degree, and perhaps to a lesser extent, Keller’s was too.
I was not thrilled but was admittedly fine with all of them at the time. They were betting on the come with Hayes and Keller’s contract seemed in line with that of a 3rd starter. With Reynolds, they are banking avoiding a sharp age decline, but his defense cratering so quickly means he needs to continue to produce with the bat.
I’m moving way off your point above, but given how these three have performed since signing their extensions, I think an argument can be made that all three, individually, will be a net negative for the team.
If the Pirates want to do further extensions with, say, Cruz or Chandler or Barco, they’ll probably need to flip one or two of the original three at some point.
I liked the extensions at the time, as I was probably hopelessly optimistic about all three building on their initial success to varying degrees, although I was probably least enthused with Reynolds.
Hayes didn’t work out, but I would do that deal again in a heartbeat as it’s pretty clear injuries sank his ability. Reynolds and Keller look more like average regulars (or slightly above average regulars). Good guys to have, but not “God, we’re screwed if these guys leave.”
Another thing? Hayes was 25 when he signed, both Reynolds and Keller were 27 (although Keller was about to turn 28). A few years difference regarding when they sign is not nothing.
My take on the three contracts and could be wrong.
1) Hayes- In about 100 plate appearances, when Hayes hit .376 and a 1.124 ops his rookie year and only a .257 avg and .689 ops, I still thought it was a good signing. Very refreshing at the time. I think it is a fair price and some other team will take it off of our hands.
2) Reynolds-When Reynolds was supposedly asking for a trade 2 or 3 years before free agency, I found it odd Bob worked out a deal. I figured that Bob was ready to start spending money on an important piece of our team, but in no way was he the guy we needed to build around. Reynolds will get hot again, but not sure we can get a team to take that contract.
3) Keller- It almost seemed like a nice gesture on Bob's part, but again he is an important piece, not an ace to build around. If he can get going again, the Pirates can get a taker.
These are a negative value for the team, but unless the Pirates use those dollars to make the team better it doesn't matter.
1) NYY since they need a 3B now and maybe in the future?
2) Hopefully the Boston situation with Devers deteriorates and they decide to take Reynolds off our hands. Yes I’m dreaming and don’t kill my dreams.
3) Keller probably has the most value (arms race in NL West or a desperate Baltimore) would be good fits.
Not that I am lobbying to get rid of any of them, just looking at values. Who knows? Maybe when the new cba after 2026, the Pirates will be able to afford all 3 of them, plus extend Cruz and Skenes. :)
Stats I like the way you dream!
very, VERY much agree and said so at the time. extensions from a club like the Pirates are just taking place of free agent budget in the years of extension and at worse even impact guys in arb.
The Rays essentially use extensions to add trade value when they inevitably still trade said player in what would be their arb years. The Pirates hold onto the extended guy to the point where their contract obligation matches or exceeds market value. Cutch and Marte have been the exceptions, they were at least able to get *something* for them in their extended years.
Yeah, I’m not sure it’s possible to appreciate how these extensions might hamstring the team if they all don’t start performing/exceeding the value of their contracts.
How and why would you have Ke’Bryan leading off and getting an extra at bat every game? He is a 7, 8, or 9…
His on bas percentage is the 4th best in our line-up, so let's rule out the 5 guys hitting under .210. This was IKF's first game back. Bart is a slow catcher. That leaves Hayes or Cutch. Hayes actually got 2 hits last night and has hit .320 this week. I would vote for Cutch, but not as crazy of a decision for this line-up. There are probably bigger questions with our line-up than Key.
The most dangerous bat-Cruz—needs the most at bats. Period. Who do you want coming up in the 9th in any situation? Cruz or Hayes? The answer is obvious. More at bats means more opportunities to do damage. Cruz batting leadoff is one of the things Shelton got right.
Oh I agree. I thought you were just talking about the last few games when Cruz was unavailable.