Geez the Reds just got better. Under-the-radar move for Lux. With Matt McLain they've actually got IF depth and 2 starters competing. It'll raise both guys performance.
Gavin Lux wasn't worth crowing about when Huntington held out for him in the Felipe Rivero talks as a hot prospect and he's surely done nothing since then to justify the hype.
I'm apparently the weird one but I can't keep reading these Verdugo pieces that give no mention to the 125>106>102>98>83 wRC+ decline through his late 20s.
Even that 125 mark in the shortened 2020 season came from hitting 63 points over his skis in expected wOBA! it was a fluke. This is not a good hitter.
They were never going to pay for a complete hitter. At this point they are dumpster diving as usual and then when it doesn't work out, they will move to the next dumpster dive.
I’m unenthused about Jack at this point, but I agree. It makes no sense to keep “filling” holes with crappy veterans with no short or long term upside, based solely on being the cheapest veteran available. Go with a AAAA guy or one of your own dubious prospects, Jack or even Gorski if you have to.
Agree. I wouldn’t mind them signing Verdugo from a depth standpoint, and we clearly aren’t competing for the top guys. It can help to have more options! But, I’m not sure Verdugo is any better than the guys we have on hand.
I would like to keep Harrington but Ashcraft I am fine with. Only thing is if they trade another pitcher they will need to add another guy for depth this year.
I'm probably the biggest Brewers fluffer on the site, but I see far more downside in their ZiPS than opportunity to exceed them.
I, for one, would not be wildly confident in Blake Perkins (a 29 yo with worse offense than Rowdy Tellez) and Garret Mitchell (40 points over his skis last year in expected wOBA) combining to form a 3 WAR centerfield, a mark only 8 teams in the entire game achieved in 2024.
I, for one, would not be confident in Bryce Turang, a terrible hitter in 2023 who cratered in the second half of 2024 worse than Jack Suwinski, also nearly hitting the 3 WAR mark.
I, for one, would not be confident in Freddy Peralta bounce back *and* Brandon Woodruff coming off injury *both* hitting the 3 WAR mark.
But above all, as a Pirate fan, I look at their bullpen projection as another clear sign of where the Bucs, again, have the most opportunity to exceed our own projection. There isn't a single one of those arms more talented than what the Bucs will put forward in the first four slots of our pen, and I cannot honestly imagine a scenario in which - yes, I know - the club does absolutely nothing to improve over the next two months. There's legitimately good relievers still sitting out there and the team has $10m to spend before even matching the 2024 payroll.
Haha good take for Jan. 7 when optimism runs amuk! I've learned to not underestimate them. Let's start with their field manager......that's 7 WAR over Shelton.
I will be interested to see when our zips comes out, but my gut is that their floor will be much, much higher but we will have more guys that I could realistically see squashing their projections.
Chourio is the only one of their guys I really see with superstar potential.
Skenes will probably be projected for 5 and could easily go over 8 because i really think hes that good. I dont think anyone would be that shocked if Cruz goes 30/30 with solid defense and is over 5 or 6. Billy Cook could easily be worth 17 WAR based on extrapolating his defensive stats from last year alone (Im kidding, I think). Let alone the amount of shit I'll probably take for saying I think Hayes could be worth 4 WAR just by being healthyish for 145+ games. Raise the floor of the pen and put somebody worth half a damn in RF and we might just never lose again
Disclaimer: I think I had way too much coffee this morning, or maybe it was bourbon...
Even though he will be 33 years old, Yelich was on his way to having another superstar season last year before getting hurt. How he comes back may play a bigger part than one might think. He went down last year after 73 games on pace for a 20+ homer 40+ stolen base year, not to mention his .315 average and .909 ops.
I think the Brewers players would run through a wall for Pat Murphy as well. That includes the time he was a coach and the time as a manager. They also seem more fundamentally sound.
I think they overvalue stuff like defense and speed, which we certainly do not. Part of the reason why I wouldn't hate a McCarthy trade is because he and cruz in LF/CF might never let a fly ball drop again and that would be such a boon for the staff
My eyebrows jumped off my skull at the Woodruff projection. That guy may have ground beef for a shoulder and he gets a 3 win projection…don’t see that happening.
And I’m with you on the bullpen. It’ll get late early out there for bullpen reinforcements.
Taylor ward, kirby yates, jose leclerc + a few LHRP that ive never heard of and they try to fix = a solid enough offseason imo (within realistic expectations)
I keep reading on MLBTR that in order to avoid a potential grievance filed by the MLPA union, the A’s need to get to a luxury tax payroll level of $105M.
Not sure exactly if that means they need to commit an actual $105M to the team’s MLB roster for 2025 (which seems to include potential additions before or at the trade deadline), but does anyone know why the A’s would be expected to meet this specific threshold and what the threshold is for the Pirates?
I don’t believe this is an annual threshold, meaning teams can dip below for a couple years as long as they are showing some sort of investment to improve play on the field. Obviously, this is a loose interpretation, but one I have heard in response to this very question in recent years.
Somebody smarter than me will post the details, but how that luxury payroll is calculated puts the Pirates at or above that level which is why they aren't in the same situation.
I’d also add, for a variety of factors, such as split gate receipts, I don’t believe revenue sharing payments are equal for every team, so while the A’s and Pirates are probably receiving amounts in the same ballpark, the Pirates could theoretically receive less, which would result in a lower payroll threshold for them to cross.
Interesting concept in an article at ESPN on franchise temperatures based on methodology developed by Bill James. Basically, each franchise starts at 72 degrees (room temperature) for their inaugural season in the WS era and from there each season's beginning temperature is about 91% of the previous season's ending temperature but teams gain degrees for winning seasons and making the postseason, with more degrees for more wins and deeper runs. All of this is calibrated to ensure that the league average remains at 72 while giving more weight to recent performance.
Currently the Dodgers are 1st at 215 degrees (boiling) and we're dead last at 17 degrees. Our all-time low was 12 in 2012, which makes sense because you "cool" with each losing season (regardless of how many you lose) and our all-time high was 135 in 1979 which also makes sense given the success that we had throughout the 1970s. The overall record high was the 1962 Yankees (400) and record low was the 1948 Phillies (4).
Ah, paywall. Not sure how this would be a surprise. They haven't been to a WS since 1979, they had 20 consecutive seasons of losing and 3 playoff appearances since 1992 and only 4 winning seasons in that time span.
You should do something on the days when there’s actual Pirate news, like put the heading in red or show a Jolly Roger or something. Won’t come up much.
If one of our other young catchers comes through, maybe Bart could get some time at first. Bart did hit .333, 5 homers in 66 at bats and .996 ops against lefties last year. Not Plan A, but just another option to go along with Cook, Yorke, Triolo, Reynolds or whoever else we might acquire.
To me the obvious answer is Cook. Well managed low payroll teams (ie. Rays) give their prospects chances - some work / some don't. If Pirates feel Cook is a prospect (I hope they do) then now is the time. He fits nicely with the current roster construction (even if they add an OF) as the plus defender 5th OF/ backup 1B / short side platoon starter. His role in the Horwitz platoon is as an OF with Reynolds (his advertised - 'some time at 1B') moving to 1B. The upside is Cook can also play 1B when other scenarios require it. If Jack ends up first inline for a shot as a corner OF platoon starter then Cook also matches up well there. He just seems like to clean of a fit to then fill the roster with another 1B when there is already one spot taken with a full time DH.
"Well managed low payroll teams (ie. Rays) give their prospects chances - some work / some don't."
The implication buried in this common thought amongst a certain type of Pirate fan is that all prospects are equal.
That is, unfortunately, very much not true!
26 year old Billy Cook was acquired in exchange for Patrick Reilly, a pitcher with a realistic shot at spending a few years as a big league middle reliever. These types both happen to fall on the fringiest side of the prospect spectrum.
Well managed low payroll teams absolutely do not load their roaster down with scholarships for these types.
They save those slots for legitimate prospects, and then, yes, absolutely give them opportunity to establish themselves.
No arguments with your comments. Partly why I added some work / some don't. I'm not looking for a full year scholarship, I am more looking reality in the face given what is on the roster today. Would I rather play Cook or sign Grandal (the genesis of the thread), I vote Cook. You can't have 2 Cook's in this example as IMO is a lower likelihood of success 'prospect'.
One addendum as I beat the dead horse of my post. If they have $10M or $15M or $5M to spend, the role Cook could play is not where I would focus. I assume Reynolds at 1B some is a reality. Then all that Cook is really filling is the short side platoon in the outfield (I am ignoring the gaping hole in some corner OF spot for now as it looks like Jack and pray for now). While not necessarily easily satisfactorily filled, if Cook failed then your basic waiver wire / hot bat in AAA / infielder playing outfield (Yorke?) can be a plan B. If a playoff hunt is a thing (I've heard it can be) then the trade deadline real upgrade is in play.
Good point, Verdugo has some value so he’s likely to have suitors to outbid us.
However, this scenario would be true in the event that they signed any outfielder with similar platoon splits. To SB’s point, maybe they’ll play Horwitz against some lefties to see if he can improve against LHP, or who knows, maybe they’ll toss Cutch out there a bit against really tough lefties.
Can you think of a recent player for which they've begun converting to another position without actually giving said player big league time at the spot?
I can't.
Seems fairly obvious that Bryan Reynolds is gonna get a whole bunch of 1B time against lefties.
I think it allows for mixing and matching so it comes down to room on the roster. If Yorke and Cook are both on the opening day roster that could make sense. But if it is only Cook then it opens up Verdugo or Horwitz sometimes starting against lefties. I view both of them as basically full time platoon but at some point that jams up roster spots.
Are you really Al Oliver? You were always my favorite player. I batted just like you did, with my back almost completely to the pitcher. What a wonderful player you were!
Pirates supposedly “connected” to Grichuk.
I don’t really buy any of these reports.
I just want them to make some moves at this point. What is the holdup?
RIP Bob Veale, age 89.
Pirate strikeout king, big imposing LH throwing heat. Sad, but providential, his wife of 60+ years just passed this week.
I once saw Veale lose a 1-0 game to SF at Forbes. Only run scored on a balk.
I only wish I had the scoresheets from games I attended at Forbes. My dad was meticulous about keeping score.
Edit: wife info incorrect.
Geez the Reds just got better. Under-the-radar move for Lux. With Matt McLain they've actually got IF depth and 2 starters competing. It'll raise both guys performance.
Novel idea.
Gavin Lux wasn't worth crowing about when Huntington held out for him in the Felipe Rivero talks as a hot prospect and he's surely done nothing since then to justify the hype.
Relax!
I see Nicky G. being a comp to Lux.
Hoping he'll beat out Lux in a close WAR battle. Lux may not have hit his ceiling just yet......
Pirates finally, officially added Elvis Alvarado to the roster.
I'm apparently the weird one but I can't keep reading these Verdugo pieces that give no mention to the 125>106>102>98>83 wRC+ decline through his late 20s.
Even that 125 mark in the shortened 2020 season came from hitting 63 points over his skis in expected wOBA! it was a fluke. This is not a good hitter.
I said what I said.
Plus I thought we would be more interested in a guy that is better against lefties.
Also moderate power, only thing Verdugo brings on offense is his k and walk rates.
That's exactly my, maybe naive, willingness to give Jack another go.
If they're not gonna go find a complete hitter, let alone one without year-on-year decline, then what's the point.
I think the chance that Jack, Yorke, Cook or even Henry Davis will help the Pirates is better than the chance of Verdugo helping (if we sign him).
They were never going to pay for a complete hitter. At this point they are dumpster diving as usual and then when it doesn't work out, they will move to the next dumpster dive.
I’m unenthused about Jack at this point, but I agree. It makes no sense to keep “filling” holes with crappy veterans with no short or long term upside, based solely on being the cheapest veteran available. Go with a AAAA guy or one of your own dubious prospects, Jack or even Gorski if you have to.
Gorski's good is really good and his bad is really bad, but I'm surprised he hasn't gotten a sniff yet.
At this point, the only way they can upgrade this team on offense is by trade involving 1 of their high end prospects.
"125>106>102>98>83 wRC+ decline"
AKA "The Cherington Curve."
shit, now it makes total sense.
Agree. I wouldn’t mind them signing Verdugo from a depth standpoint, and we clearly aren’t competing for the top guys. It can help to have more options! But, I’m not sure Verdugo is any better than the guys we have on hand.
I wonder if angels would take suwinski and a pitching prospect like Solometo for Ward.
Should say yes to that so fast if thats the case. Wondering if it might take ashcraft or harrington but I still think you have to make that move
I would like to keep Harrington but Ashcraft I am fine with. Only thing is if they trade another pitcher they will need to add another guy for depth this year.
A’s staying one step ahead of the union…
In a fair and just world Hank Davis becomes the Pirates' Brent Rooker.
World is a lot of things, fair and just aren’t two of them though.
and that's why we're Pirate fans. ;)
Then we should be booking the blackout in the burgh
I'm probably the biggest Brewers fluffer on the site, but I see far more downside in their ZiPS than opportunity to exceed them.
I, for one, would not be wildly confident in Blake Perkins (a 29 yo with worse offense than Rowdy Tellez) and Garret Mitchell (40 points over his skis last year in expected wOBA) combining to form a 3 WAR centerfield, a mark only 8 teams in the entire game achieved in 2024.
I, for one, would not be confident in Bryce Turang, a terrible hitter in 2023 who cratered in the second half of 2024 worse than Jack Suwinski, also nearly hitting the 3 WAR mark.
I, for one, would not be confident in Freddy Peralta bounce back *and* Brandon Woodruff coming off injury *both* hitting the 3 WAR mark.
But above all, as a Pirate fan, I look at their bullpen projection as another clear sign of where the Bucs, again, have the most opportunity to exceed our own projection. There isn't a single one of those arms more talented than what the Bucs will put forward in the first four slots of our pen, and I cannot honestly imagine a scenario in which - yes, I know - the club does absolutely nothing to improve over the next two months. There's legitimately good relievers still sitting out there and the team has $10m to spend before even matching the 2024 payroll.
jesus take the wheel.
Haha good take for Jan. 7 when optimism runs amuk! I've learned to not underestimate them. Let's start with their field manager......that's 7 WAR over Shelton.
I would say higher than 7.
Agree on Turang. Projection systems love the guy though.
I will be interested to see when our zips comes out, but my gut is that their floor will be much, much higher but we will have more guys that I could realistically see squashing their projections.
Chourio is the only one of their guys I really see with superstar potential.
Skenes will probably be projected for 5 and could easily go over 8 because i really think hes that good. I dont think anyone would be that shocked if Cruz goes 30/30 with solid defense and is over 5 or 6. Billy Cook could easily be worth 17 WAR based on extrapolating his defensive stats from last year alone (Im kidding, I think). Let alone the amount of shit I'll probably take for saying I think Hayes could be worth 4 WAR just by being healthyish for 145+ games. Raise the floor of the pen and put somebody worth half a damn in RF and we might just never lose again
Disclaimer: I think I had way too much coffee this morning, or maybe it was bourbon...
Even though he will be 33 years old, Yelich was on his way to having another superstar season last year before getting hurt. How he comes back may play a bigger part than one might think. He went down last year after 73 games on pace for a 20+ homer 40+ stolen base year, not to mention his .315 average and .909 ops.
You make total sense, but I have reached the point where I quit trying to make sense with the Brewers.
Even last year, getting near the deadline, I thought the division could be had, but it couldn’t.
I can’t avoid the belief that this is simply the difference between a GM who knows baseball and one who doesn’t.
I think the Brewers players would run through a wall for Pat Murphy as well. That includes the time he was a coach and the time as a manager. They also seem more fundamentally sound.
They have the culture-thing going now like the Cardinals used to. Expecting success goes a long way in achieving success.
They just keep delivering!
I think they overvalue stuff like defense and speed, which we certainly do not. Part of the reason why I wouldn't hate a McCarthy trade is because he and cruz in LF/CF might never let a fly ball drop again and that would be such a boon for the staff
Tell them to deliver some of what they brew to me.
My eyebrows jumped off my skull at the Woodruff projection. That guy may have ground beef for a shoulder and he gets a 3 win projection…don’t see that happening.
And I’m with you on the bullpen. It’ll get late early out there for bullpen reinforcements.
Taylor ward, kirby yates, jose leclerc + a few LHRP that ive never heard of and they try to fix = a solid enough offseason imo (within realistic expectations)
I keep reading on MLBTR that in order to avoid a potential grievance filed by the MLPA union, the A’s need to get to a luxury tax payroll level of $105M.
Not sure exactly if that means they need to commit an actual $105M to the team’s MLB roster for 2025 (which seems to include potential additions before or at the trade deadline), but does anyone know why the A’s would be expected to meet this specific threshold and what the threshold is for the Pirates?
I don’t believe this is an annual threshold, meaning teams can dip below for a couple years as long as they are showing some sort of investment to improve play on the field. Obviously, this is a loose interpretation, but one I have heard in response to this very question in recent years.
Somebody smarter than me will post the details, but how that luxury payroll is calculated puts the Pirates at or above that level which is why they aren't in the same situation.
I’d also add, for a variety of factors, such as split gate receipts, I don’t believe revenue sharing payments are equal for every team, so while the A’s and Pirates are probably receiving amounts in the same ballpark, the Pirates could theoretically receive less, which would result in a lower payroll threshold for them to cross.
My understanding is that every team puts 48% of their local MLB revenues into the pool, which then gets equally distributed (1/30) back to all teams.
I’ve seen it reported various places, including by Evan Drellich, that teams receive different amounts?
Yes, there are payers and payees. What you are referring to are the reported net amounts.
Interesting concept in an article at ESPN on franchise temperatures based on methodology developed by Bill James. Basically, each franchise starts at 72 degrees (room temperature) for their inaugural season in the WS era and from there each season's beginning temperature is about 91% of the previous season's ending temperature but teams gain degrees for winning seasons and making the postseason, with more degrees for more wins and deeper runs. All of this is calibrated to ensure that the league average remains at 72 while giving more weight to recent performance.
Currently the Dodgers are 1st at 215 degrees (boiling) and we're dead last at 17 degrees. Our all-time low was 12 in 2012, which makes sense because you "cool" with each losing season (regardless of how many you lose) and our all-time high was 135 in 1979 which also makes sense given the success that we had throughout the 1970s. The overall record high was the 1962 Yankees (400) and record low was the 1948 Phillies (4).
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/43310233/mlb-ranking-all-30-teams-franchise-temperatures-2025#method
For those of us who feel discouraged about the (lack of) progress the Pirates are making, this is an objective measure that supports that feeling.
Well, here's what I think:
https://www.cultureandcriticism.com/post/25-is-the-year-of-pitchburgh
Ah, paywall. Not sure how this would be a surprise. They haven't been to a WS since 1979, they had 20 consecutive seasons of losing and 3 playoff appearances since 1992 and only 4 winning seasons in that time span.
You should do something on the days when there’s actual Pirate news, like put the heading in red or show a Jolly Roger or something. Won’t come up much.
I like how Anthony is covering other teams with some depth. Long overdue versus the other Bucs sites.
anybody else here think that Horwitz platoon partner at first base will be Grandal?
If one of our other young catchers comes through, maybe Bart could get some time at first. Bart did hit .333, 5 homers in 66 at bats and .996 ops against lefties last year. Not Plan A, but just another option to go along with Cook, Yorke, Triolo, Reynolds or whoever else we might acquire.
I’m a big proponent of this plan.
To me the obvious answer is Cook. Well managed low payroll teams (ie. Rays) give their prospects chances - some work / some don't. If Pirates feel Cook is a prospect (I hope they do) then now is the time. He fits nicely with the current roster construction (even if they add an OF) as the plus defender 5th OF/ backup 1B / short side platoon starter. His role in the Horwitz platoon is as an OF with Reynolds (his advertised - 'some time at 1B') moving to 1B. The upside is Cook can also play 1B when other scenarios require it. If Jack ends up first inline for a shot as a corner OF platoon starter then Cook also matches up well there. He just seems like to clean of a fit to then fill the roster with another 1B when there is already one spot taken with a full time DH.
"Well managed low payroll teams (ie. Rays) give their prospects chances - some work / some don't."
The implication buried in this common thought amongst a certain type of Pirate fan is that all prospects are equal.
That is, unfortunately, very much not true!
26 year old Billy Cook was acquired in exchange for Patrick Reilly, a pitcher with a realistic shot at spending a few years as a big league middle reliever. These types both happen to fall on the fringiest side of the prospect spectrum.
Well managed low payroll teams absolutely do not load their roaster down with scholarships for these types.
They save those slots for legitimate prospects, and then, yes, absolutely give them opportunity to establish themselves.
No arguments with your comments. Partly why I added some work / some don't. I'm not looking for a full year scholarship, I am more looking reality in the face given what is on the roster today. Would I rather play Cook or sign Grandal (the genesis of the thread), I vote Cook. You can't have 2 Cook's in this example as IMO is a lower likelihood of success 'prospect'.
2 Cooks would be too many (in the kitchen)
i gotcha now, fair enough.
One addendum as I beat the dead horse of my post. If they have $10M or $15M or $5M to spend, the role Cook could play is not where I would focus. I assume Reynolds at 1B some is a reality. Then all that Cook is really filling is the short side platoon in the outfield (I am ignoring the gaping hole in some corner OF spot for now as it looks like Jack and pray for now). While not necessarily easily satisfactorily filled, if Cook failed then your basic waiver wire / hot bat in AAA / infielder playing outfield (Yorke?) can be a plan B. If a playoff hunt is a thing (I've heard it can be) then the trade deadline real upgrade is in play.
That happens to be what I'd also do!
I see Nicky Yorke in the RF platoon with Jack in the hopes that Nicky Gonzales holds down 2B, but close enough.
Turns out we're on the same page, sorry man!
That example would be too many Cooks in the kitchen?
I obviously need to read the thread before posting. Good dad joke, tho!
You are fined a dollar. Please go to your corner and do not post again for an hour. The temporary kangaroo court has spoken.
What if they sign Verdugo though? Perhaps Yorke is the other half of that?
A quick Google search turns up rumors that both the Astros & Padres are also interested in Verdugo, so you know how that will go.
Good point, Verdugo has some value so he’s likely to have suitors to outbid us.
However, this scenario would be true in the event that they signed any outfielder with similar platoon splits. To SB’s point, maybe they’ll play Horwitz against some lefties to see if he can improve against LHP, or who knows, maybe they’ll toss Cutch out there a bit against really tough lefties.
Can you think of a recent player for which they've begun converting to another position without actually giving said player big league time at the spot?
I can't.
Seems fairly obvious that Bryan Reynolds is gonna get a whole bunch of 1B time against lefties.
I think it allows for mixing and matching so it comes down to room on the roster. If Yorke and Cook are both on the opening day roster that could make sense. But if it is only Cook then it opens up Verdugo or Horwitz sometimes starting against lefties. I view both of them as basically full time platoon but at some point that jams up roster spots.
No
Canha
Are you really Al Oliver? You were always my favorite player. I batted just like you did, with my back almost completely to the pitcher. What a wonderful player you were!
---------------------
-Wabbit
I thought he was artificial intelligence Oliver. Guess I read that wrong.
Just got a huge bag of organic carrots. Stay out my friend.