If they believe one of the millions of 2b that they have trialed this year will take over the position, cheng could be a decent trade piece to bolster next year's squad for sure
2 more Arbitration years left. Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber & Brandon Woodruff each got ~10mil for their Arb3 year. Couldn't find a comparable SP for Arb4, so lets just call that ~15mil. So essentially 2 years, 25-30mil left on his "current contract".
I found 2 comparable SP, Arb Extensions - Kyle Freeland (5/$65, bought out 4 FA years) & Logan Webb (5/$90, 3 FA years). Both have been better than Keller over their careers, but we're hoping Keller's last season+ has put him at their level.
Here's what I propose: 4 years, $65 million + 5th year option that can bring it to 5/$85. 16.25mil AAV w a $20 mil option year.
Generally speaking, I think it's awfully instructive how little the failure to extend the last window of contention had to do with an inability to extend their homegrown core.
The focus should be on what comes after Keller, not just getting the band back together into their "just play the hits" years.
With the '13-'15 core being comfortably better than what is germinating right now, I just don't see how spending most of your capital to lock in every decent player through the beginning of their potential decline is the way this franchise is gonna get better.
So we shouldn't extend him? Wouldn't we all be thrilled to sign a 30 y/o Keller-esque FA pitcher to a 3 year, $50-60 million contract in the middle of when we expect to be contending?
Based on recent history, the alternative would be to trade Keller in the next 2 offseasons or the 2025 deadline. Getting rid of your best pitcher in the middle of your first playoff run in a decade doesn't seem ideal either.
But at the same time, if this is *truly* a playoff team in the next few years then Mitch will either not be able to give an inch or someone will have already surpassed him as best pitcher in the rotation. As much as he should be lauded for his improvement, I'm not sure I see another gear in there and 4-5 years of completely healthy and consistent peak performance is exceptionally rare.
Just my take, but I think there's increasingly more value in roster flexibility than locking up homegrown players into their potential decline years for clubs who are as strapped as the Buccos.
Fair! I think your sentiment applies more to the Reynolds deal, in which case, I agree with you! Given that Brey is a 2-4 win player now, I can't imagine many more 5-6 WAR seasons as he approaches 35/36. Not to mention DH/LF has got to be the easiest position to fill on the club.
I think you are a little low, but in the ballpark. For one, crossing 200 IP is going to boost Keller's arb. numbers. I would say arb. 3 and arb. 4 have a total value of about 28 million. As a free agent, right now, Keller stands to make just north of 25 million per year. You can get a discount of 15% on the free agent years with a longer contract in exchange for the guaranteed money. In addition, Keller may be willing to do a additional home-team discount of 5-10% if you give him 5+ years. (He seems like that type of guy).
Keller will be going into his age 27 season next year, so I have no problem with a 6-year deal. 4 free-agent years at 20 million each (with the 25% discount) and 2 arb. years at 28 million. That is about 6 years / 110 million. If you go 5 years, you can probably not count on a full 25% discount, so 5 years / 95 million. Pirates and Keller could split the difference with 5 years / 90 million and team option for year 6 at 25 million (which would be the contract I would be aiming for if the Pirates).
I have no problem with this at all and feel it's fair. Only problem I see, if they have locked up Hayes, Rey and Keller, will they enough budget to spend on outside acquisitions?
I think they should have plenty. Putting aside my cynicism that they’ll use hometown as an extensions that they’re tapped, lets put Mitch’s number at say $18M over 5 years starting in 2024. If he stays through 2028, the big 3 combined are going to make roughly 35-40M over the duration of Mitch’s deal.
They can certainly beef up a payroll into the low 100’s over that time and that can largely be done if they sign a starter to a 15-20M deal for 3-4 years and a bit beyond that.
The only other expensive arb guy coming due soon is Bednar, and if other guys get expensive in 2-3 years, that means they’re playing well. I’ll settle for that problem.
If we go by OOTP projections and team budget estimates (which seem to be very good IMO), given a roughly 3-5% annual inflation rate, everything, for the Pirates, depends on ticket prices and attendance, at least in my experience, having played 15 years or so into the future twice as Pirates GM. Basically, you have to win and get average attendance near 2 million per year to sustain success. Any major rebuilds and so forth are pretty much out of the question, because revenues drop too significantly. The object of the game is not to be the best team in the league every year; the object is to stay in contention as long as possible annually to keep attendance up into August and September.
If Cherington can do this (no mean feat), he can probably maintain a payroll in the neighborhood of 110 million for the MLB club, but only after a couple years of sustained success and playoffs. This will allow him to have 5 or 6 regulars on long-term deals, making about 75 million. With Keller and Reynolds at about 18 per year and Hayes at 7, they are well-positioned to hit this mark. With this budget and revenue stream, they will have about 10 million or so each off-season to patch up holes in free agency. Basically, no matter what the Pirates do, they cannot rely on big-ticket free agents to be their stars or even fill significant roles (like 3rd starter for example).
Prospects are their currency, and what they can do, when they feel they have a very strong team coming into a given season, is trade prospects for a veteran on a long-term deal with their trading partner retaining some salary: i.e. the A. J. Burnett deal. This is typically how I was able to push the Pirates over the top and win a few World Series here and there: always with prospects for a veteran with retained salary (almost always a pitcher- PNC just rewards good pitching... it just does).
Not really a video game. The graphics are awful, and if you don't manage games, there is no video at all. It is based upon Zips and fangraphs projections for player performance and the financial modeling is based upon substantial research into contract histories, payrolls, budgets, and so forth, including some (so I am told) insider information from former front office staff from various teams. The contracts and budgets seem pretty spot on if you set the inflation variable correctly. You can test this by running 20 or seasons in a couple of minutes from, say 2000 to the present. Budgets for most teams look about right. Several people inside baseball have commented on how accurate the budget modelling is.
It's taking a page from the Braves on a smaller scale.
They need to lock up a core of 6 or 7 above average regulars at reasonable salaries. If Keller is extended they'd still need another starter locked up if not 2.
Position players is a little bit tricky, if they feel confident in Endy's, Cruz's or any other young player bat developing, it would be good to extend them now instead of waiting for a breakout and the price going up. It's risky but could pay huge dividends.
That's why I said above average regulars, (2.5 WAR or better) by taking a risk early on a player like Endy now instead of waiting for his breakout (if it happens) can build a better than mediocre team with some payroll flexibility.
It's the only way to do it for the Pirates. You have to take advantage of the guaranteed money discount with your young players and hope for no career ending injuries early in the deal.
I wouldn't make any deal at this point with Cruz or even Endy (though I would be more inclined toward a deal with Endy). We have to see how Cruz comes back from his broken leg. I hate to be debbie downer, but that could signficantly impact his career and potential. Also, if he loses the range necessary to play SS or even CF, his value is very different, even the bat recovers fully.
Not making any deal with them runs the risk of them blowing up in a good way and they don’t want to sign. An extension has risk for both sides.
Having said that, I’m not with you in the downer category. I think it’s best to hold on extending Cruz for that reason, though I’m not as pessimistic as you are. It’s more likely he heads to the OF which I’m fine with anyway.
Cruz may be just fine and recover 100%. Obviously I hope that is the case. I only mean to point out the possibility, and the Pirates cannot afford to err on long-term deals. There is enough inherent risk already.
Several things may lead to the Pirates getting some hometown discounts and being able to lock up a core. 1st) This second half of the season has swung momentum in their favor, and the guys expect this team to be good going forward. 2nd) The youngest players are a pretty tight-knit group and on good terms with each other, having come up as a cohort. No one wants to say goodbye to long-time friends. 3rd) The Pirates are developing a nice latin contingent to their core. It helps to have a number of Spanish-speakers on the team if you are negotiating with Spanish-speakers, especially the younger players who have not fully developed English-language skills yet.
I agree on Cruz, with Endy getting such a small signing bonus from the Mets (either $10,000 or $20,000) now seems like a prime time to extend him with a couple options. For example a 5 year $15 million with a club option in year 4 that has to be picked up then for an additional 5 years for $70 million.
That's right in line with what I was thinking, I could see it going as long as 7 years with options. That would be on the timeline with Reynolds and Hayes.
I think you’re about right. Maybe even a 2nd option year that kicks in automatically based upon reaching a certain # of innings. I could also see Keller wanting an opt out after 4 years, too.
IMHO, Keller is a perfect veteran presence to mentor Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Tony S, and others in the coming years. There’s value in having a guy who has overcome so much adversity in the clubhouse. Hopefully Pirates see it the same way.
Congrats on a highly successful season Mitch. Hopefully this season will serve as a springboard to an even better year next season. And to a new long-term contract extension this winter.
Mitch went full Lance Lynn last night, 91% fastballs! A few crotch grabs a f*ck yous were in order.
No facial hair though. I wonder if Mitch even needs a razor.
seems like he could pull one of these whispy lil mustaches the kids have these days.
Doug Drabek weeps.
Watching the game, it appeared he was mixing in 2-seamers, 4-seamers and cutters. Are they all just showing as generic fastballs?
Those are all fastballs.
True. All non-fastball are off-speed pitches.
Big d**k mitch is a vibe i could get behind
Cheng or Aiko or Dariel as starting 2024 shortstop in AAA ?
me thinks Cheng gets traded in the next few months
If they believe one of the millions of 2b that they have trialed this year will take over the position, cheng could be a decent trade piece to bolster next year's squad for sure
Cheng and Harrington to the Mets for Cantina is on my top ten trades list
Lopez isn’t a SS. He has enough trouble at 3B or 2B. He’s the most error-prone IF I’ve ever seen.
Slap him at first and just let him hit. Coming back from a dislocated knee too, range might not be there anyways.
I remember that graphic, it was on Apple TV.
What does an extension look like for Keller?
2 more Arbitration years left. Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber & Brandon Woodruff each got ~10mil for their Arb3 year. Couldn't find a comparable SP for Arb4, so lets just call that ~15mil. So essentially 2 years, 25-30mil left on his "current contract".
I found 2 comparable SP, Arb Extensions - Kyle Freeland (5/$65, bought out 4 FA years) & Logan Webb (5/$90, 3 FA years). Both have been better than Keller over their careers, but we're hoping Keller's last season+ has put him at their level.
Here's what I propose: 4 years, $65 million + 5th year option that can bring it to 5/$85. 16.25mil AAV w a $20 mil option year.
Generally speaking, I think it's awfully instructive how little the failure to extend the last window of contention had to do with an inability to extend their homegrown core.
The focus should be on what comes after Keller, not just getting the band back together into their "just play the hits" years.
With the '13-'15 core being comfortably better than what is germinating right now, I just don't see how spending most of your capital to lock in every decent player through the beginning of their potential decline is the way this franchise is gonna get better.
So we shouldn't extend him? Wouldn't we all be thrilled to sign a 30 y/o Keller-esque FA pitcher to a 3 year, $50-60 million contract in the middle of when we expect to be contending?
Based on recent history, the alternative would be to trade Keller in the next 2 offseasons or the 2025 deadline. Getting rid of your best pitcher in the middle of your first playoff run in a decade doesn't seem ideal either.
Far from ideal!
But at the same time, if this is *truly* a playoff team in the next few years then Mitch will either not be able to give an inch or someone will have already surpassed him as best pitcher in the rotation. As much as he should be lauded for his improvement, I'm not sure I see another gear in there and 4-5 years of completely healthy and consistent peak performance is exceptionally rare.
Just my take, but I think there's increasingly more value in roster flexibility than locking up homegrown players into their potential decline years for clubs who are as strapped as the Buccos.
Fair! I think your sentiment applies more to the Reynolds deal, in which case, I agree with you! Given that Brey is a 2-4 win player now, I can't imagine many more 5-6 WAR seasons as he approaches 35/36. Not to mention DH/LF has got to be the easiest position to fill on the club.
And I'm still just talking percentages at the margins.
Ain't exactly *easy* to continually pop undervalued free agents on 1-2 year deals. Baseball's hard!
I think you are a little low, but in the ballpark. For one, crossing 200 IP is going to boost Keller's arb. numbers. I would say arb. 3 and arb. 4 have a total value of about 28 million. As a free agent, right now, Keller stands to make just north of 25 million per year. You can get a discount of 15% on the free agent years with a longer contract in exchange for the guaranteed money. In addition, Keller may be willing to do a additional home-team discount of 5-10% if you give him 5+ years. (He seems like that type of guy).
Keller will be going into his age 27 season next year, so I have no problem with a 6-year deal. 4 free-agent years at 20 million each (with the 25% discount) and 2 arb. years at 28 million. That is about 6 years / 110 million. If you go 5 years, you can probably not count on a full 25% discount, so 5 years / 95 million. Pirates and Keller could split the difference with 5 years / 90 million and team option for year 6 at 25 million (which would be the contract I would be aiming for if the Pirates).
So 6/110 includes a 25% discount?!
I would expect something slightly below BR’s deal.
I have no problem with this at all and feel it's fair. Only problem I see, if they have locked up Hayes, Rey and Keller, will they enough budget to spend on outside acquisitions?
I think they should have plenty. Putting aside my cynicism that they’ll use hometown as an extensions that they’re tapped, lets put Mitch’s number at say $18M over 5 years starting in 2024. If he stays through 2028, the big 3 combined are going to make roughly 35-40M over the duration of Mitch’s deal.
They can certainly beef up a payroll into the low 100’s over that time and that can largely be done if they sign a starter to a 15-20M deal for 3-4 years and a bit beyond that.
The only other expensive arb guy coming due soon is Bednar, and if other guys get expensive in 2-3 years, that means they’re playing well. I’ll settle for that problem.
If we go by OOTP projections and team budget estimates (which seem to be very good IMO), given a roughly 3-5% annual inflation rate, everything, for the Pirates, depends on ticket prices and attendance, at least in my experience, having played 15 years or so into the future twice as Pirates GM. Basically, you have to win and get average attendance near 2 million per year to sustain success. Any major rebuilds and so forth are pretty much out of the question, because revenues drop too significantly. The object of the game is not to be the best team in the league every year; the object is to stay in contention as long as possible annually to keep attendance up into August and September.
If Cherington can do this (no mean feat), he can probably maintain a payroll in the neighborhood of 110 million for the MLB club, but only after a couple years of sustained success and playoffs. This will allow him to have 5 or 6 regulars on long-term deals, making about 75 million. With Keller and Reynolds at about 18 per year and Hayes at 7, they are well-positioned to hit this mark. With this budget and revenue stream, they will have about 10 million or so each off-season to patch up holes in free agency. Basically, no matter what the Pirates do, they cannot rely on big-ticket free agents to be their stars or even fill significant roles (like 3rd starter for example).
Prospects are their currency, and what they can do, when they feel they have a very strong team coming into a given season, is trade prospects for a veteran on a long-term deal with their trading partner retaining some salary: i.e. the A. J. Burnett deal. This is typically how I was able to push the Pirates over the top and win a few World Series here and there: always with prospects for a veteran with retained salary (almost always a pitcher- PNC just rewards good pitching... it just does).
What are we talking about here...video games?
Not really a video game. The graphics are awful, and if you don't manage games, there is no video at all. It is based upon Zips and fangraphs projections for player performance and the financial modeling is based upon substantial research into contract histories, payrolls, budgets, and so forth, including some (so I am told) insider information from former front office staff from various teams. The contracts and budgets seem pretty spot on if you set the inflation variable correctly. You can test this by running 20 or seasons in a couple of minutes from, say 2000 to the present. Budgets for most teams look about right. Several people inside baseball have commented on how accurate the budget modelling is.
It's taking a page from the Braves on a smaller scale.
They need to lock up a core of 6 or 7 above average regulars at reasonable salaries. If Keller is extended they'd still need another starter locked up if not 2.
Position players is a little bit tricky, if they feel confident in Endy's, Cruz's or any other young player bat developing, it would be good to extend them now instead of waiting for a breakout and the price going up. It's risky but could pay huge dividends.
Locking up lesser players on a smaller scale is simply locking *in* mediocre teams.
At least TRY to be really good!
That's why I said above average regulars, (2.5 WAR or better) by taking a risk early on a player like Endy now instead of waiting for his breakout (if it happens) can build a better than mediocre team with some payroll flexibility.
It's the only way to do it for the Pirates. You have to take advantage of the guaranteed money discount with your young players and hope for no career ending injuries early in the deal.
I wouldn't make any deal at this point with Cruz or even Endy (though I would be more inclined toward a deal with Endy). We have to see how Cruz comes back from his broken leg. I hate to be debbie downer, but that could signficantly impact his career and potential. Also, if he loses the range necessary to play SS or even CF, his value is very different, even the bat recovers fully.
Not making any deal with them runs the risk of them blowing up in a good way and they don’t want to sign. An extension has risk for both sides.
Having said that, I’m not with you in the downer category. I think it’s best to hold on extending Cruz for that reason, though I’m not as pessimistic as you are. It’s more likely he heads to the OF which I’m fine with anyway.
Cruz may be just fine and recover 100%. Obviously I hope that is the case. I only mean to point out the possibility, and the Pirates cannot afford to err on long-term deals. There is enough inherent risk already.
Several things may lead to the Pirates getting some hometown discounts and being able to lock up a core. 1st) This second half of the season has swung momentum in their favor, and the guys expect this team to be good going forward. 2nd) The youngest players are a pretty tight-knit group and on good terms with each other, having come up as a cohort. No one wants to say goodbye to long-time friends. 3rd) The Pirates are developing a nice latin contingent to their core. It helps to have a number of Spanish-speakers on the team if you are negotiating with Spanish-speakers, especially the younger players who have not fully developed English-language skills yet.
There's more than one way to skin a cat.
You have this way of speaking in absolutes.
errybody wanna be the Rays nobody wanna ac like the Rays.
I agree on Cruz, with Endy getting such a small signing bonus from the Mets (either $10,000 or $20,000) now seems like a prime time to extend him with a couple options. For example a 5 year $15 million with a club option in year 4 that has to be picked up then for an additional 5 years for $70 million.
It would give security on both sides.
I don’t think Endy signs that deal. It’s lower than the widely-ridiculed Albies contract.
An extention for Endy could look like this.
2024) $2 million
2025) $1.5 million
2026) $1.5 million
2027) $5 million
2028) $5 million
2029) arbitration if option is declined
If option is picked up after 2027 it would average $12.5 million from 2028 through 2033.
That's right in line with what I was thinking, I could see it going as long as 7 years with options. That would be on the timeline with Reynolds and Hayes.
6 years +/- $110 million
7 years +/- $125 million
The shorter the length, the higher the AAV.
All this sounds reasonable to me. I hope they can get something done.
Before I saw Webb's deal, I had figured 4/$75 + 5th year option for $25 to make it 5/$100
I think you’re about right. Maybe even a 2nd option year that kicks in automatically based upon reaching a certain # of innings. I could also see Keller wanting an opt out after 4 years, too.
IMHO, Keller is a perfect veteran presence to mentor Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Tony S, and others in the coming years. There’s value in having a guy who has overcome so much adversity in the clubhouse. Hopefully Pirates see it the same way.
Congrats on a highly successful season Mitch. Hopefully this season will serve as a springboard to an even better year next season. And to a new long-term contract extension this winter.