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Ortiz as # 6

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Aug 21·edited Aug 21

Skenes

Keller

Jones

Bubba

Falter

This is the rotation that breaks camp next season. Watch tf out!

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author

(Presuming full health) I'm so excited for next year's group of SPs, including the big club and upper level depth. I just really really really really really really really really hope they do something about the complete lack of hitters

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I'm apparently the high guy on their offense. I just don't think it's *that* dire!

Reynolds, Cruz, and Bart set a pretty high floor on their own.

This club has far more players undershooting the expected wOBA than over. Bart is really the only dude who should be expected to regress some, and they won't be losing any offense to free agency.

Replacing all of Triolo with NG and IKF will be a huge lift overall, as would just getting back to 2023-levels at 1B. If Kebryan is no longer a big leaguer that makes things a lot tougher, but even a bounce back to pre-2023 heater is another huge improvement. Add decent outfield bat and some internal improvement could get them to around 95 wRC+, which is probably good enough for a wildcard spot backing a healthy rotation.

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Since Triolo has dropped his hands about 10" in the ready position, he has looked and hit a lot better. NG was a house afire in May (.913 OPS) and caused a lot of attention. Obviously he was pitched differently in June and dropped 275 OPS points to a .638 OPS, and another 105 OPS points in July (.533 OPS). I like IKF and hope that BDLC can find himself in Pittsburgh.

I liked the kids we got at the trade deadline - Yorke and Cook, but so far we are showing no intent to see them at the MLB level. And, If we are happy with NG and IKF, why Yorke or was that just another BC'ism of trade what you do not think you can use and get a MI in return?

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It's possible. Depending where Nicky G settles in, cause he had been on a downward slope up until injury. Reynolds and Cruz are the two I feel confident saying, "Ok, they're good to go". I'm cautiously optimistic about Bart, but still that little birdy in back of my head that they've largely failed at improving, or even maintaining, hitters. So, in theory we can say Bart is the starting C, but still that possibility a full off-season with Pirates coaches he somehow reverts back to pre-2024 Bart.

Then add a decent bat and some internal improvement is easier said than done, as in part with what was just mentioned, in addition to, until they actually make a seemingly smart/big add, Ben's "decent OF bat" add was BDLC. That's what he settled on, or was left with.

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Burrows, Harrington and Oviedo are waiting for an opportunity as well. Ortiz back to the pen.

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And the bullpen. Lots of potential there but with Chapman likely gone, Holderman not showing signs of resolving his issues, and Bednar's inconsistency (plus getting expensive enough that he might be a trade candidate), I fear repeats of the stretch that sent us spiraling on the 10-game losing streak.

But bats are the main thing--the only positions that I feel confident that we'll be above average are C and SS, ironically two positions where offense is seen as more of a luxury than a requirement. You can probably throw LF in there and 2B should be at least around average. But 1B, 3B, CF, RF, DH?

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Hopefully Bednar is back to 21-23 form next year, cause he's likely going nowhere. With Holderman, I think he'll get push down the pecking order, which should help everyone involved. Biggest thing will be how well guy's carry this season into next. Nicolas, Stratton, Mlodzinski, and even Dennis Santana have established themselves as guys who likely will command spots. Moreta should be back, May/June? Borucki fully healthy. Then if they were to decide to kick off season with a Bubba in the rotation, that pushes Ortiz to pen.

So, right there you have 8: Bednar, Holderman, Stratton, Nicolas, Mlod, Santana, Borucki, and Ortiz. Chances are they may want to get another LHP in there. From there, I'm not entirely sure who your next-man-up would be. Oviedo is probably getting his bearings in Indy rotation, and I don't think an Ashcraft gets pushed to pen just yet. So, it's likely some form or FA signings on minor league deals or so.

From there, yeah, the offensive/defensive side of things leaves a lot of questions. C should be good to go. SS and LF are good, just from a standpoint of Cruz and Reynolds probably aren't the best defensive options, but they both provide enough offense without proper depth at said positions. 2B could probably be considered set, and trending in the right direction. The rest is more waiting for the first domino to drop, particularly is Key still set at the starting 3B, and is Cutch coming back? IKF's position of the future is largely dependent on Key, unless the Pirates do something wild and actually move Cruz off SS and put IKF there. If Cutch is coming back, then BDLC is probably your RF, unless if not, then BDLC is probably DH with Yorke and/or Cook covering CF/RF. Then yeah, that's not even touching on 1B lol

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Why do all of those bullpen guys need to come back? Or why should it be automatically assumed they should get spots? None of them have really life the world on fire to begin with.

I’d want 2 maybe 3 new faces back there. And I’d be good with moving Ashcraft back there too.

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I'm obviously of the "relievers are fickle" mindset, so personally, I'd find a buyer for both Holderman and Bednar. Stratton, Nicolas, Mlod, and even Santana I think is a solid foundation to build from. I'd also look to trade one of Ortiz or Falter for a quality return, cause obviously teams will be looking for starters, and both have pitched well enough along with control they could bring useful pieces back. I'd lean trade Ortiz, being that Falter is their lefty option, as of now.

That said, it is the Pirates, so, I expect them to likely not do much of anything, or maybe make one "big" signing, and probably bring a glut of LHP options mostly on MiLB deals like they did this past off-season.

All that said, on the list of things that need repaired, bullpen seems it should be low on the list. Burrows could even be moved to the pen with all the arms they have. Still mad they traded Luis Peralta for a rental, only to miss the playoffs.

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Aug 21Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

I’d look at a rotation next year of Skenes, Keller, Jones, OA (Outside Acquisition), Falter. With Bubba, Oviedo, and Harrington as the first ones up, with a couple of German types stashed at AAA as well.

For the bullpen, it’s tougher. I’d look to trade one or both of Holderman or Bednar, but obviously neither is super high right now. Let’s say they trade Holderman and keep Bednar (I’d do the opposite, but my GM resume on LinkedIn hasn’t gotten any hits yet). Among the rest of the holdovers, I’d keep Mlod, Nicholas, Stratton, and Santana, and add Ortiz. That’s six spots…I’d look at OAs for lefties for the last two spots, either via trade or signing. And I’d look at Ashcraft and Burrows as first men up in case of someone faltering or injuries, with Moreta ready later in the season.

One can say the pen isn’t what’s in need of repair the most, but I also think that a dynamite pen (paired with a good rotation) may be their easiest path to contention. It’s tricky because bullpens are fickle, as you said.

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I wish they did WAR for GM and Manager slots. Can you imagine what this team might look like with league average WAR in those two areas? The team has surplus in the most coveted area - league ready max-controllable pitching. They are sitting on a gold mine and competent leadership should be able to turn that into playoff teams for 3-5 years.

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It would be really cool to go one single day without the Front Office melodrama and just talk baseball.

This place is slowly turning into X.

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You know who'd love it if we quit talking about FO performance?! Ben Cherington would. 🤡🤔🤔🤡

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With all due respect to people who have this take, I just don't get it. We're faced with the implications of these front office decisions every time we see a line-up with 3+ sub replacement level players with not a lot of clear answers on the horizon of how to address this and turn this team into a viable contender. I'm not sure how you can ignore that to just talk baseball.

During the games, I feel like most people are reacting to what is happening on the field. To the extent that it can feel like X at times, I guess that occurs when people start squabbling with each other or "crap-posting" the same comments over and over again every game, and yeah, that can definitely include FO commentary. But by and large, I think there are more solid contributions and discussions here than not, although these last few weeks have been taxing for all of us.

Everyone will be super happy after German throws his second perfect game today lol.

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I'm certainly not referring to you. I'm talking about the handful that talk 90% of the time about the FO.

It's impossible not to talk about them, but to belabor your feelings for the FO daily is truly a special, special art.

I'm not a Cherington fan, but me whining about him accomplishes nothing. I'd rather talk primarily about baseball.

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Aug 21·edited Aug 21

I think less than half of the people who comment on these boards actually watch the games.

They're fans, sure, but their fandom is about the team and not the sport.

Front Office drama supplies endless conversation without actually having to pay attention.

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Exactly this!

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Everyone loves to play MMQB.

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Aug 21Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Bruce Bochy has won three World Series titles and has led the defending Champs with a quarter BILLION dollar payroll to a worse record than your Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates are currently paying their 7th inning reliever more than the record-setting contract Craig Counsell signed with the Cubs en route to barely sniffing .500, also with nearly a quarter BILLION dollar payroll.

The field Manager makes almost zero difference.

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Insiders disagree with this as do I, though I think the impact of a manager is often overrated (just not "almost zero"). But say it's a ~3 WAR effect, that's significant but a team will only reap the benefits of that when the GM has put together enough talent and that talent has stayed relatively healthy.

Last year Bochy may have been the difference since the Rangers made the postseason by a game. But no, Bochy isn't going to make up for a pitching staff that is 19th in the majors (their starters are 20th). Shelton isn't the reason we're not contending this year, but it's also reasonable to worry that when we are in a pennant race whether he'd give us as good a chance to win as some of the other managers out there.

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Are the "insiders" in the room with you right now?

Actual "insiders", the ones working in Major League Baseball clearly do no disagree with me or else this would be the easiest money in baseball. Again, the highest paid Manager in the history of the game makes less than veteran middle relievers.

If Managers actually mattered you'd see clubs chomping at the bit to pay them accordingly.

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One insider was Kevin Goldstein between his stints with the Astros and Twins, but in any case you don't need to attack anyone that disagrees with your perspective ("in the room with you", really?).

But under your perspective, no team should ever change managers, John Russell would have been every bit as successful as was Hurdle, and Leyland shouldn't be about to get inducted into the Pirates HoF.

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Your right on this. Besides the obvious playing field decisions, they have control of and need to be effective with 26 players and 8-10 coaches just for starters, to get everyone pulling in the same direction.

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Aug 21·edited Aug 21

Pissy replies get them in turn, sorry brother. No need to appeal to authority, and you did.

Quite the opposite, IMO. Every win counts, relationships sour, and there are plenty of guys who can do the job.

Just don't expect the Manager alone to add 3 wins. Clubs will pay a starting pitcher $20m a year for a shot at 3 WAR. If a Manager could get you there then why in the world would clubs refuse to pay him a quarter of what they willingly pay the pitcher?

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Come on you're smarter than that. The MLBPA has negotiated on behalf of players for decades to get to the payroll we see today. The managers might have an agent, might not, but with only 30 jobs, manager salaries are held way down due to a lot of factors at play......mostly the desire to stay in the game they love rather than getting a real job like the rest of us.

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You nailed it--because there are "plenty of guys who can do the job", the market isn't going to support higher salaries. But that's not to say everyone can do it and that there isn't a significant gap between the best and worst managers.

That's true of managers in any workplace--many people out there are good managers or have the potential to be, but not all managers are good and the gaps between the good and the bad can be quite big. I don't see why baseball would be any different.

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So, let's ignore that they won it all last year; this year they stink so the manager doesn't matter. This is simply recency bias as opposed to historical track record.

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lol yes, let's ignore this year but not last. very smart.

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With the starting pitching they've had, the Pirates should be ten games over .500. They're seven under, so I give bumbling Ben a -17.0 WAR.

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Our starting pitching is a little top heavy and perceptions are still based more on potential than results, especially with how much time Jones has missed--we're only ranked 15th in the majors (but we're not used to even being average so there's that).

Our offense though is 27th, which would have been hard to imagine when Ben was hired that we'd be that low in year 5 and yet expect him to be here for year 6.

Okay, I'm about to undermine what I think about Ben not deserving another year. In 2012, Huntington's 5th season, our offense ranked...27th! Our SP 17th. I felt more hope in 2012 than this season, and our record was better, but the stats don't point to things being that much different.

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They’re 15th in SP WAR per FG. Well below average in K rate (25th), above average in BB rate (9th) and 12th in HR rate. I’m not opposed to starting next season with Ortiz or Falter in the rotation, but having two pitch-to-contact guys in the rotation is asking for trouble.

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A lot of it is them being held back be Perez and Gonzales. One of Ben’s big missions in the offseason was to bolster the rotation and he came up with a whopping 0.5 WAR total.

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That and losing Jones for roughly 8 weeks didn’t help. Eventually they were going to come up snake eyes on crafty lefties. I think they should pick up an FA. Pivetta, if they think they can coax more out of him. Or either of the Alexi (Cobb or Wood) would work too.

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in which the good players are luck and the bad players are Ben's fault.

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Nope, it’s just that the latter wildly outnumber the former.

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Much needed well pitched game by Mitch Keller, and the same for Jared Jones on Rehab at AAA. Have to think that the Top 4 of the Pirates Rotation (Keller, Skenes, Jones, Falter) will be together soon to possibly finish the last month of the season. Luis Ortiz the 5th SP at present, with Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington working at AAA to prep for joining the Rotation in 2025. Much appreciate BC for putting this group together.

Now a hitter or two to add to next year's lineup would be nice. Joey Bart has been much better than expected, and his bat fits nicely in the middle of the order. IKF has been a nice addition, and we need to hope that BDLC gets comfortable in Pittsburgh. Oneil Cruz looks better as the season progresses. He's been here so long that we sometimes forget he is still only 25, finishing his second year of MLB Service, and has more AB's in 2024 than he had in the previous 3 years combined. This year, coming off a serious injury that cost all but 9 games in 2023, was a very important building block for him. Watching him run out that triple last night is proof positive of the work he put in to rehab and prep for this long season.

The Pirates are TOO deep in Pitching and MI's. That means we do not have meaningful spots for all of them at the Top 2 levels of our system. We need to use some in trade value with another team(s) that has/have what we need and are lack pitching or MI's. We do not need to wait for the off-season if we can get it done before the 2024 season ends.

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I'm extremely concerned about BC's ability this offseason to trade effectively from this depth.

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He did it twice at the deadline, which is why the Pirates have Yorke and Cook, who look good so far, but only time will tell whether those were good trades or not. More of it is needed and probably at a higher level if he’s going to get quality major league outfielders, which is what they really need most. Of course that would mean parting with some higher level pitchers and many would be unhappy with that notion.

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Aug 21Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

You could stop after “ability.”

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Hahahaha fair

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Good morning, Mel.

Once again, you hit it out of the park! Well done, sir.

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Thank you, much appreciated

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I'm not sure I've seen Keller look better, and I acknowledge that he has a couple complete games to his credit. He was absolutely dealing last night.

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Thing about Keller, he’ll hit some adversity, but he’ll always adjust. I don’t worry much any more when he has a bad game or two.

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He's my favorite. He's overcome so much and so damn unassuming. I'd hate to play him in poker.

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An excellent person/pitcher to be the Leader of this very young Rotation.

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Same. Even with a few clunkers in a row, he’s earned the benefit of the doubt now.

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Well stated on all fronts.

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Except for the fact that they do have to wait until the offseason. Trades aren’t allowed right now.

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Did not know that. Is that not allowed at all or that anyone traded after the deadline will not qualify for the playoffs? Regardless, with the speed that BC has moved to try to find a young, RH hitting CF (that was a need out of ST), we should have started looking a lot of yesterdays ago! Back in April I started pitching names like Everson Pereira of the Yankees and Ceddanne Rafaela of the BoSox. Pereira was injured early, but Rafaela has turned out to be a solid defensive (+9 DRS) CF for the BoSox, while also playing 3 or 4 other defensive positions also. The Red Sox took the gamble and it has paid off.

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