More from "Baseball Wit and Wisdom" to ponder as the days gradually lengthen, leading to the eventual <snap> of ball in glove:
"Baseball reflected the language of America, and spiced it too. Presidents, politicians, executives, generals, and parents touched all the bases regularly so that nobody would be out in left field, or caught off base in the greater pursuits of life. If you did it right, you hit a grand slam home run. If not you struck out."
-- Joseph Durso, in "Baseball and the American Dream"
Excellent interview with TJ on Fangraphs - thanks for the reminder. He's such a talented kid and his numbers are pretty much off-the-chart for a second baseman. What do we look for in a second baseman? I look for a strong fielder who can put the ball in play, carry a very low K/BB Ratio, and sometimes have some pop in the bat. TJ checks all of those boxes and is still putting up some strong EBH numbers.
To say he is confident in his abilities would be a major understatement. He's 20 - does that cover it? Loved the statement "believing in what you're doing when you step up in that box is what puts you in the best position possible." Last year as a 19/20 year old in A+/AA the average was down, but he put up EBH numbers of 19/1/15 and K/BB numbers of 116/85 - a 1.36 K/BB rate which is definitely Plus level, while also fielding well at both SS and 2B. Hoping for a good year at AA as a 20/21 year old, and possibly AAA by the second half. And in the "just think" category -
Interesting tidbit from an article on MLB economics over at MLBTR regarding salary deferrals. I get the use of deferrals in high tax states and Canada, makes complete sense for the player, but the interesting note came from Jeff Passan regarding the CBA which requires teams to set aside the future payroll commitments within two years of signing the contract. I haven’t read the CBA, but I would assume that non-deferred contracts would require at least the same. Meaning for teams like the Pirates, they may actually have to save up for these extensions if they are required to set aside the money when these contracts are signed. If that’s the case, it’s probably why the Pirates don’t sign many FAs to more than one-year deals, and it is also likely the reason that MLBPA dropped their grievance bc signing Hayes, Keller, and Reynolds to extensions required them to set aside those future payroll committments (approx $250m) on their balance sheet. Just some interesting stuff to pontificate.
Ahhh, that’s the leap you referring to bc I read the CBA and he is correct on deferred contracts. I don’t think it’s a huge leap. Why would the CBA require teams to set aside deferred compensation and not set aside non-deferred compensation? Maybe this is just a simple accounting question, doesn’t a payable or liability have to be offset with an asset? It’s kind of the same thing, no? The Pirates have about $160m in payables beyond 2025. Wouldn’t cash or a cash equivalent be the offset here? It has to be something.
I promise you that absolutely nowhere in the CBA requires teams to save the *entire* cost of a contract within two years of signing. That makes absolutely zero sense.
CBA requires deferred contracts to be annualized, it does not require the Dodgers have literally like $1.5b cash on hand in a bank somewhere.
Sounds reasonable. But haven’t organizations of similar size been able to sign player extensions and FA’s to multi-year deals? KC, Milwaukee, and Minnesota are just a few examples.
Just checked Spotrac, KC has about $250m in future commitments beyond 2025, most of that is Bobby Witt. Cincinnati has virtually nothing beyond 2025, which prob lets them run a higher payroll short term. Milwaukee only has about $150m and Minnesota has a similar amount as KC with Correa and Buxton. The Pirates are coming in at $160m beyond 2025, which is roughly one more player extension away from KC and Minnesota.
We're the Pirates and we need a few years between positive moves? Now, if we can write the MLBPA and request some pressure in the form of the same grievance filed a few years ago, who knows what we could be capable of?
For sure, and I would be surprised if a contending team in need of SP has not run that scenario by BC. The Pirates gained a lot from Oneil Cruz returning in 2024, but lost twice as much from Hayes and Suwinski. I am sure BC is hopeful we get positive fWAR numbers from both Hayes and Suwinski in 2025, but the Pirates are definitely in the position where they can trade Mitch Keller if they choose to do so.
The over confident TJ interviews are starting to bother me a bit, let your work on the field do your talking young man, and so far it’s been underwhelming…..he’s a 20 year old so I guess I’m being petty….
I don't think he is over-confident, but just a youngster trying to say the right things. He was by far the nicest most fan-friendly player at Pirate City last spring. He wants to say the right things. He is obviously a hard-worker and willing to keep learning. If he turns out being a bust, it won't be for lack of effort or over-confidence. It might actually be because he is trying to do too much.
On a side note: I thought the interviewer wasn't very prepared and asked the same questions over and over in different ways. He didn't do too much to help the kid out.
He can be all of these things: arrogant, hard-working, and fan-friendly. As far as I am concerned, he can have any personality that he wants so long as he plays well and does not cause problems in the clubhouse. For that matter, he can vote for whomever he wants too. I don't care... lol.
I get that, and please know my comment wasn’t based on just this interview, draft day he said he was the best player on that draft, he has declared himself the best hitter on the planet, etc, etc…. Just tired of reading stuff like that while seeing his stock drop like a lead ballon!
Just because his prospect ranking on websites for fans is dropping like a lead balloon, doesn’t necessarily mean his stock is dropping in front offices. Plus, these rankings are fickle, and ultimately mean nothing in the long run.
These kids today. We live in an age of hyperbole. These kids get it from all the social media and the cults of personality that thrive in a media-driven world. I agree with you that I would prefer he let his play do all the talking, but like I said above, if he plays well and doesn't cause problems, he can talk all the trash he wants.
"I'm happy for what I've done," Johnson told MLB.com. "I'm working on being a better baseball player, and it looks exactly how it's supposed to look. I'm just trying to continue to do whatever I can to continue to make sure that I'm in the best position possible because I know I'm the best hitter in the world.
I can certainly understand how this statement will bother many people, but I hope you understand he’s building up his mental approach.
You should read the story in Moneyball about the time the Mets were facing Steve Carlton. Both Billy Beane and Lenny Dykstra were young unproven players. Billy Beane was scared to face one of the best LHSP’s ever, while Dykstra had the mindset that he was going to rake no matter who was on the mound.
One guy became a great MLB hitter, and one became a great MLB GM.
I’ve read many times that the best players tend to have a certain amount of arrogance.
I wasn’t troubled by the interview. I go back and forth on Termarr, but there are two elements I try to keep in mind. One, he has elite strike zone judgment, which no amount of coaching can instill. Two, he’s always been very young for his levels.
Dave Parker? When asked in 1975 why he wore a Star of David necklace he replied, “Because I’m David and I’m a star.”
Barry Bonds? When asked during his first days in the majors in June 1986 whether he was concerned about facing Doc Gooden he replied, “He should be afraid to face me [or something to that effect.]”
Not saying that being arrogant translates into being an all-time great, but arrogance and confidence in oneself is vital to succeeding in a difficult sport.
I get it and you are not wrong. I don't think he is really that confident, but trying to say what he thinks will get fans excited. That might actually be holding back his progress...... which gets back to your original statement "let your work on the field do your talking young man".
Confidence is multifaceted, and we as a society don't understand the many levels.
There's confidence in your path. Confidence in your abilities. Confidence in self.
Johnson has confidence in his path, as seen by the comments he makes about his potential.
He is a hard worker. Any hitter is going to have their confidence in ability challenged at the high levels. He hasn't been given much of a chance to build that confidence.
The confidence in self is the toughest one. Especially in the age of social media.
We've been a follower society well before Meta, X, and TikTok came around. These social media networks have only increased the tendency for people to seek validation by the amount of followers they have. External validation can help build confidence in self, but it will never get a person all the way.
Internal validation of self is the key.
We all face the same situation. We're under control for 18 years, being told what to learn and think by our family, friends, and education systems. Inevitably, we all emerge with a skill unique to us, but everyone else sees and validates that same skill.
The challenge we all face is becoming our own person on our path. A kid might have a special ability, but only that individual will be able to mature their ability. They can seek outside validation of their ability, and they can seek guidance and education from systems. But until they accept and validate their own strengths and weaknesses, they'll never grow to that confidence in self that so few have.
That's the confidence that Skenes has. It's rare.
The reason it is rare is because most people don't reach this until their mid-30s or later. This level of confidence fuels many a mid-life crisis, as they realize they've been living for approval of others, and they begin leading their own lives.
The challenge in baseball is that players are expected to reach this level of maturity 10-15 years early, in order to maximize their prime physical years.
Johnson is only 20. He's spent very little time in the real world, where he's not surrounded by control systems. He's currently in a system that will somewhat control him, but will focus on the ability he emerged from childhood with.
It seems he's still in the social media stage of seeking validation from the outside. I think we've all been there. I certainly have publicly been there, calling myself the best baseball writer in Pittsburgh. My younger self needed that, because literally no one else around me saw or believed in that possibility. When I made the public claims, it was a challenge to myself to back them up.
Older me knows the nuance, and just aims for as much positive value out of my own abilities, without worrying what others are doing. I'm 41 years old with this knowledge.
I can't imagine the pressure of trying to get to this point by age 21.
This is the make or break of development. That ultimate confidence where you no longer seek outside approval and you no longer validate unwanted external critique. You just learn to validate your abilities and the path that no one else sees.
I think Termarr Johnson will get there. He has plenty of time.
For a while, he seemed to have some answers. He pioneered the bounceback veteran strategy, but the other teams caught on and it became less of a bargain. The drafting and LatAm programs weren’t good enough to add to the Cutch/Walker/Marte core. The one-size-fits-all pitching approach failed.
Above all else, once he used up his payroll wiggle room with extensions, he had no answers for Nuttin’s suffocating financial restrictions. He settled on an approach of aiming for .500 by loading up on 1- and 2-win players with lots of YOC.
That last part is exactly what bumbling Ben is doing, except he’s happy to settle for replacement-and-below veterans.
He also pioneered the money is no object strategy to the draft, which led to the imposition of fixed bonus pools. As I recall, the Red Sox thought that Josh Bell was unsignable and didn’t draft him; NH got him by being willing to give him a $5 million bonus in the second round.
My biggest problem with NH, though, was something that he had control over: his tendency to go for volume rather than ceiling when he had to offload the guys who were getting too expensive. Maybe he didn’t have any real options, but the Cole trade was inexcusable in that regard.
Me too. 2015-2016 I figured it was only a matter of time before a large market poached him. Going from being offered the Giants job in 2018 to being fired and not garnering much interest for GM jobs is quite the turn. But baseball can be strange like that.
For the life of me, I don’t understand how MLB can’t figure out if there’s say $5 billion in players salaries divided equally between 30 teams, instead of predominantly in 10 of them, the sport would be better for all of them…including the 10.
Just compare revenue growth of NFL to MLB over last 30 years.
Man I love that kid.
More from "Baseball Wit and Wisdom" to ponder as the days gradually lengthen, leading to the eventual <snap> of ball in glove:
"Baseball reflected the language of America, and spiced it too. Presidents, politicians, executives, generals, and parents touched all the bases regularly so that nobody would be out in left field, or caught off base in the greater pursuits of life. If you did it right, you hit a grand slam home run. If not you struck out."
-- Joseph Durso, in "Baseball and the American Dream"
Excellent interview with TJ on Fangraphs - thanks for the reminder. He's such a talented kid and his numbers are pretty much off-the-chart for a second baseman. What do we look for in a second baseman? I look for a strong fielder who can put the ball in play, carry a very low K/BB Ratio, and sometimes have some pop in the bat. TJ checks all of those boxes and is still putting up some strong EBH numbers.
To say he is confident in his abilities would be a major understatement. He's 20 - does that cover it? Loved the statement "believing in what you're doing when you step up in that box is what puts you in the best position possible." Last year as a 19/20 year old in A+/AA the average was down, but he put up EBH numbers of 19/1/15 and K/BB numbers of 116/85 - a 1.36 K/BB rate which is definitely Plus level, while also fielding well at both SS and 2B. Hoping for a good year at AA as a 20/21 year old, and possibly AAA by the second half. And in the "just think" category -
2023 Hayes - .182 ISO, 100 wRC+, .315 BABIP, 3.2 fWAR
2024 Hayes - .058 ISO, 59 wRC+, .279 BABIP, 0.1 fWAR Difference -3.1 fWAR
2023 Suwinski - .230 ISO, 112 wRC+, .290 BABIP, 2.6 fWAR
2024 Suwinski - .142 ISO, 62 wRC+, .225 BABIP, -1.1 fWAR Difference -3.7 fWAR
Interesting tidbit from an article on MLB economics over at MLBTR regarding salary deferrals. I get the use of deferrals in high tax states and Canada, makes complete sense for the player, but the interesting note came from Jeff Passan regarding the CBA which requires teams to set aside the future payroll commitments within two years of signing the contract. I haven’t read the CBA, but I would assume that non-deferred contracts would require at least the same. Meaning for teams like the Pirates, they may actually have to save up for these extensions if they are required to set aside the money when these contracts are signed. If that’s the case, it’s probably why the Pirates don’t sign many FAs to more than one-year deals, and it is also likely the reason that MLBPA dropped their grievance bc signing Hayes, Keller, and Reynolds to extensions required them to set aside those future payroll committments (approx $250m) on their balance sheet. Just some interesting stuff to pontificate.
You made a giant leap there, the "set aside" applies only to the deferred years after the length of the playing contract ends.
Wow, then JP doesn’t know what he’s talking about or he was misquoted.
Nope, his article states the set aside applies to deferred contracts. Pirates don't have any deferred contracts.
Ahhh, that’s the leap you referring to bc I read the CBA and he is correct on deferred contracts. I don’t think it’s a huge leap. Why would the CBA require teams to set aside deferred compensation and not set aside non-deferred compensation? Maybe this is just a simple accounting question, doesn’t a payable or liability have to be offset with an asset? It’s kind of the same thing, no? The Pirates have about $160m in payables beyond 2025. Wouldn’t cash or a cash equivalent be the offset here? It has to be something.
I promise you that absolutely nowhere in the CBA requires teams to save the *entire* cost of a contract within two years of signing. That makes absolutely zero sense.
CBA requires deferred contracts to be annualized, it does not require the Dodgers have literally like $1.5b cash on hand in a bank somewhere.
Come on man.
The CBA requires the PV of the deferred contract. It’s on page 89. That number will increase with every year as you’re discounting one less year.
I don’t think it makes sense either, which is why I found it so interesting.
Pirates made a 30 year deferred offer....to an 11 year old. The kid didn't sign (must have Boras as an agent).
Sounds reasonable. But haven’t organizations of similar size been able to sign player extensions and FA’s to multi-year deals? KC, Milwaukee, and Minnesota are just a few examples.
Just checked Spotrac, KC has about $250m in future commitments beyond 2025, most of that is Bobby Witt. Cincinnati has virtually nothing beyond 2025, which prob lets them run a higher payroll short term. Milwaukee only has about $150m and Minnesota has a similar amount as KC with Correa and Buxton. The Pirates are coming in at $160m beyond 2025, which is roughly one more player extension away from KC and Minnesota.
We're the Pirates and we need a few years between positive moves? Now, if we can write the MLBPA and request some pressure in the form of the same grievance filed a few years ago, who knows what we could be capable of?
Thanks for sharing. Makes me wonder if they do end up trading Keller in the interest if extending other player(s).
For sure, and I would be surprised if a contending team in need of SP has not run that scenario by BC. The Pirates gained a lot from Oneil Cruz returning in 2024, but lost twice as much from Hayes and Suwinski. I am sure BC is hopeful we get positive fWAR numbers from both Hayes and Suwinski in 2025, but the Pirates are definitely in the position where they can trade Mitch Keller if they choose to do so.
The over confident TJ interviews are starting to bother me a bit, let your work on the field do your talking young man, and so far it’s been underwhelming…..he’s a 20 year old so I guess I’m being petty….
I don't think he is over-confident, but just a youngster trying to say the right things. He was by far the nicest most fan-friendly player at Pirate City last spring. He wants to say the right things. He is obviously a hard-worker and willing to keep learning. If he turns out being a bust, it won't be for lack of effort or over-confidence. It might actually be because he is trying to do too much.
On a side note: I thought the interviewer wasn't very prepared and asked the same questions over and over in different ways. He didn't do too much to help the kid out.
Agree on the interviewer. He had one question and when he didn’t get the answer he was looking for he just kept at it.
He can be all of these things: arrogant, hard-working, and fan-friendly. As far as I am concerned, he can have any personality that he wants so long as he plays well and does not cause problems in the clubhouse. For that matter, he can vote for whomever he wants too. I don't care... lol.
I get that, and please know my comment wasn’t based on just this interview, draft day he said he was the best player on that draft, he has declared himself the best hitter on the planet, etc, etc…. Just tired of reading stuff like that while seeing his stock drop like a lead ballon!
Just because his prospect ranking on websites for fans is dropping like a lead balloon, doesn’t necessarily mean his stock is dropping in front offices. Plus, these rankings are fickle, and ultimately mean nothing in the long run.
These kids today. We live in an age of hyperbole. These kids get it from all the social media and the cults of personality that thrive in a media-driven world. I agree with you that I would prefer he let his play do all the talking, but like I said above, if he plays well and doesn't cause problems, he can talk all the trash he wants.
SI interview;
"I'm happy for what I've done," Johnson told MLB.com. "I'm working on being a better baseball player, and it looks exactly how it's supposed to look. I'm just trying to continue to do whatever I can to continue to make sure that I'm in the best position possible because I know I'm the best hitter in the world.
I can certainly understand how this statement will bother many people, but I hope you understand he’s building up his mental approach.
You should read the story in Moneyball about the time the Mets were facing Steve Carlton. Both Billy Beane and Lenny Dykstra were young unproven players. Billy Beane was scared to face one of the best LHSP’s ever, while Dykstra had the mindset that he was going to rake no matter who was on the mound.
One guy became a great MLB hitter, and one became a great MLB GM.
Overconfidence in a hitter is not a problem.
I’ve read many times that the best players tend to have a certain amount of arrogance.
I wasn’t troubled by the interview. I go back and forth on Termarr, but there are two elements I try to keep in mind. One, he has elite strike zone judgment, which no amount of coaching can instill. Two, he’s always been very young for his levels.
Dave Parker? When asked in 1975 why he wore a Star of David necklace he replied, “Because I’m David and I’m a star.”
Barry Bonds? When asked during his first days in the majors in June 1986 whether he was concerned about facing Doc Gooden he replied, “He should be afraid to face me [or something to that effect.]”
Not saying that being arrogant translates into being an all-time great, but arrogance and confidence in oneself is vital to succeeding in a difficult sport.
I get it and you are not wrong. I don't think he is really that confident, but trying to say what he thinks will get fans excited. That might actually be holding back his progress...... which gets back to your original statement "let your work on the field do your talking young man".
Confidence is multifaceted, and we as a society don't understand the many levels.
There's confidence in your path. Confidence in your abilities. Confidence in self.
Johnson has confidence in his path, as seen by the comments he makes about his potential.
He is a hard worker. Any hitter is going to have their confidence in ability challenged at the high levels. He hasn't been given much of a chance to build that confidence.
The confidence in self is the toughest one. Especially in the age of social media.
We've been a follower society well before Meta, X, and TikTok came around. These social media networks have only increased the tendency for people to seek validation by the amount of followers they have. External validation can help build confidence in self, but it will never get a person all the way.
Internal validation of self is the key.
We all face the same situation. We're under control for 18 years, being told what to learn and think by our family, friends, and education systems. Inevitably, we all emerge with a skill unique to us, but everyone else sees and validates that same skill.
The challenge we all face is becoming our own person on our path. A kid might have a special ability, but only that individual will be able to mature their ability. They can seek outside validation of their ability, and they can seek guidance and education from systems. But until they accept and validate their own strengths and weaknesses, they'll never grow to that confidence in self that so few have.
That's the confidence that Skenes has. It's rare.
The reason it is rare is because most people don't reach this until their mid-30s or later. This level of confidence fuels many a mid-life crisis, as they realize they've been living for approval of others, and they begin leading their own lives.
The challenge in baseball is that players are expected to reach this level of maturity 10-15 years early, in order to maximize their prime physical years.
Johnson is only 20. He's spent very little time in the real world, where he's not surrounded by control systems. He's currently in a system that will somewhat control him, but will focus on the ability he emerged from childhood with.
It seems he's still in the social media stage of seeking validation from the outside. I think we've all been there. I certainly have publicly been there, calling myself the best baseball writer in Pittsburgh. My younger self needed that, because literally no one else around me saw or believed in that possibility. When I made the public claims, it was a challenge to myself to back them up.
Older me knows the nuance, and just aims for as much positive value out of my own abilities, without worrying what others are doing. I'm 41 years old with this knowledge.
I can't imagine the pressure of trying to get to this point by age 21.
This is the make or break of development. That ultimate confidence where you no longer seek outside approval and you no longer validate unwanted external critique. You just learn to validate your abilities and the path that no one else sees.
I think Termarr Johnson will get there. He has plenty of time.
Good hearing from you Tim.
Yeah, that was a pretty awkward interview
I think we all were hoping he would come out of high school looking like Joe Morgan. Not asking too much, right?
A 20-year old holding his own in AA isn’t exactly what I would call a bust.
Agree.
Interesting interview with Neal Huntington on Foul Territory: https://youtu.be/RhOieaQ25xo?si=OhQ_Q_1oZVWF2T22
I have mainly good memories of NH’s time in Pittsburgh.
For a while, he seemed to have some answers. He pioneered the bounceback veteran strategy, but the other teams caught on and it became less of a bargain. The drafting and LatAm programs weren’t good enough to add to the Cutch/Walker/Marte core. The one-size-fits-all pitching approach failed.
Above all else, once he used up his payroll wiggle room with extensions, he had no answers for Nuttin’s suffocating financial restrictions. He settled on an approach of aiming for .500 by loading up on 1- and 2-win players with lots of YOC.
That last part is exactly what bumbling Ben is doing, except he’s happy to settle for replacement-and-below veterans.
He also pioneered the money is no object strategy to the draft, which led to the imposition of fixed bonus pools. As I recall, the Red Sox thought that Josh Bell was unsignable and didn’t draft him; NH got him by being willing to give him a $5 million bonus in the second round.
My biggest problem with NH, though, was something that he had control over: his tendency to go for volume rather than ceiling when he had to offload the guys who were getting too expensive. Maybe he didn’t have any real options, but the Cole trade was inexcusable in that regard.
Me too. 2015-2016 I figured it was only a matter of time before a large market poached him. Going from being offered the Giants job in 2018 to being fired and not garnering much interest for GM jobs is quite the turn. But baseball can be strange like that.
Thanks for sharing. I enjoyed it. Some good stuff about the small marketa vs big markets.
For the life of me, I don’t understand how MLB can’t figure out if there’s say $5 billion in players salaries divided equally between 30 teams, instead of predominantly in 10 of them, the sport would be better for all of them…including the 10.
Just compare revenue growth of NFL to MLB over last 30 years.
NFL salary cap has increased from $37 million in 1995 to $255 million in 2024. 1995 was first year of salary cap.
MLB is foolish to not pool all revenues and agree to pay a fixed percentage to players and limit a team’s expenditures.