With Houston signing Hader, the reliever market is starting to dry up. It's one area of the team I'd feel comfortable enough to hear offers on anyone. Bednar would have to be ridiculous to move though.
The Stick is gonna win the 2b job out of ST and bat .280 35 2b and 16 HR to pair with his above average defense at second, running away with rookie of the year. (He’s still a rookie, right?)
His exit velocities are awesome. don't know where I can see Launch angle. His barrel rate will be better than Reynolds... just need contact rate to go up.
Prediction: After the Pirates' usual 3+ months of allowing a basement budget free-agent to perform at a subreplacement level, Tellez is finally DFAd in mid-July and Gonzalez is handed the job at 1B as a last-ditch attempt to save his career.
is Tellez a guarentee to break camp out of spring training? isnt his situation the same as Choi last year where we can drop him before March 31 and not have to pay his salary?
i could see it play out with all three Nick, Joe and Peguero lighting it up in Bradenton and forcing their way into mlb playing time in April
The Pirates are paying Tellez 3.2 million. Nothing short of an act of God will take him out of the starting lineup until he has put up at least -1 WAR over more than 3 months of play.
Tellez is on a guaranteed contract for $3.2 million, it can get to $4 million with bonuses. He's with the team unless they trade him and they can't trade him until the end of May beginning of June.
BTW... I fired up a new game of Out of the Park before I went on vacation a couple weeks ago and started an expansion team. I broke my rule of not participating in the rule 5 draft (since the AI leaves too many good MLB-ready players available) and selected Jorge Barrosa. He's been my 4th OFer for the first 4 seasons of the franchise and has put up between .4 and .7 WAR in 300 or so PAs per season. Very happy with him. Great pinch-runner... had 59 runs scored one year... 21 as a pinch runner.
The fact that Preller isn't universally known as an abject failure speaks to the ridiculous zeitgeist over promoting kids for the sake of promoting them.
He's got an objectively worse track record than even Huntington.
Nobody seems to give a shit that this doesn't work.
Fans and the media don’t actually care if you’re effective. They just care that you try to win, the more reckless the better. Hence how Preller is viewed: the big contracts, win now trades etc. You see the same thing with a guy like Dombrowski who is more effective at it, even though everyone ignores “the massive cleanup on aisle 8” as he rushes out to the door to avoid the mess he created.
Like his methods or not, Dombo is a HOF executive: pennants with four different organizations, two WS titles, a bunch of playoff appearances.
He helped build the last good Expos team, then took over an expansion franchise. Helped build that franchise up with FAs, tore it down under orders, then helped develop the next Marlins championship group before going to Detroit (which was almost like a second expansion club). It took awhile, but that ended up the best Tigers teams since the 80’s.
He’s won with both building up and free spending. In an industry run by groupthink, he operates differently and I find that refreshing. Especially since we’re sold a tomorrow that never comes in this rebuild.
Preller is the dollar tree version of Dombrowski. It ain’t even close.
To be clear, I’m not trying to downplay DD’s successes. I’m just pointing out that no one considers the aftermath of his successes because he scoots out of town when things start to go askew. I’ll particularly take issue with a few of the ridiculous extensions he signed: Chris Sale and Miguel Cabrera. I agree with “dollar tree” assessment of Preller. No it’s not close. Dombrowski would never assemble such flawed rosters, despite the similarity of their win now tactics.
And yes, the endless rebuild is exhausting. But I’d prefer something more sustainable than Dombrowski/Preller scorched earth win now tactics. There’s something desirable between that, and what we have now, IMO. Unfortunately, and to the original point of my post: most Pirates fans seem to want the Preller approach adopted: one that might never guarantee you a playoff appearance, but is sure to guarantee at least a half decade of wandering in the desert.
Dombo had an extended run in Detroit of success. Starting with the surprise WS run in 2006, Detroit won at least 86 games in seven of the next nine seasons. Looks pretty sustained to me.
I do agree that, given Pittsburgh’s financial limitations, they can’t come close to operating like that. But rebuilds shouldn’t take this long if teams actually know what they’re doing.
I’m quite sure teams are aware of his methods, especially since they’ve gotten more pronounced as he’s gotten older. His methods are exactly why Boston brought him on in the first place: to win a title and quickly. Boston may have been better off keeping Dombrowski instead of hiring Bloom. I don’t think there’s anyway Dombrowski bones up the Betts/Bogaerts situation like Bloom did.
He had Verlander in his age 22 season and Cabrera in his age 25 season, along with ample resources to keep both through their prime. It’s always going to look sustainable when you have two of the best players to ever play the game in recent times through their entire primes. I’m skeptical he could’ve repeated such a scenario with a team with lesser resources, let alone a situation as ridiculous as the Pirates.
“Rebuilds shouldn’t take this long.” Agreed, but in most instances competently run teams should never have to rebuild if they know when to retool. If the Pirates had taken a step back after 2016 and restocked the cupboards a bit for a year or two we’d have been back to contention in no time. But they wanted to keep smashing down on the throttle signing extensions, taking a lesser return for Cole to get immediate help, the Archer trade, etc.
I’m torn on the question of the Red Sox. The Sale extension was termination worthy IMO. But to dump a guy so quickly after winning a World Series seems a bit unceremonious to me. And of course I haven’t been impressed with FSG’s management of the Red Sox, including this offseason. Plenty of blame to go around there.
I'll give Preller credit for trading a bunch of those youngins while their value is high. A couple have panned out but several are lookin like busts or much less than they were valued.
Yep, if Salas can OPS over .600 at double A, he'll be ranked the top 1 or 2 prospects overall (already 5). If he struggles, they'll just say how young he is and not really drop.
100% on #3. One of the position player prospects has to explode at some point. Please? I can’t say I’m predicting that it will be White, but he’s got the best chance —— either him or Polanco.
If Pirates development staff is worth anything they will teach Skenes to shape his fastball better. 100 mph flat as a pancake will get hit hard in MLB.
I do think AAA will be a good test for him to understand that AAA or even better AA hitters won't chase at the same pitches that college hitters did. Hopefully they force him to not just get outs the easy way (gas them) but work batters 'pretending' they are major league hitters. Leiter has learned some hard lessons on the difference in hitters as he took that jump.
I don't agree 'another planet'. Leiter blew through SEC and was considered for the top pick in the entire draft. I agree Skenes from a rating perspective was considered higher, but not by some landslide. Lieter (small stature his negative) was looked at as a fast moving prospect who would be at least a '2'. Two different players and one result does not predict the other, but I am always cautionary with great expectations.
Even if the hype around both is somewhat similar (idiots like Tim Benz said Leiter was generational...I’m all for that term getting retired), Skenes is better in terms of stats and stuff.
Skenes had a video game like 10.5 K-B ratio. That’s insane. Leiter? A shade under 4. Leiter did well in the SEC, but Skenes was other worldly. We’ll see what he does when he gets started.
I agree and now feel like I am some kind of Skenes doubter. I think he is the real deal but I also want patience. Even with top of the rotation stuff I think there are habits (confidence) that is built from blowing away hitters that basically had no chance. The NCAA hitter and MLB hitter are different animals and need dealt with differently over the full lineup. . Who knows, he may not really feel that until MLB, but I am still a cautious optimist.
Very good list. I might add Jared Jones getting a mediocre third pitch, just enough to solidify him as a legitimate starter long term. At the Major League level, I really feel they need at least one (hopefully two) of Priester, Burrows(really a 2025 stmt IMO), Ortiz, and Contreras to become a dependable starter even if at the 4-5 spots.
Does anyone in Pirates organization have the first clue how to teach a change up? Do they even recognise its’ existence? Are they change up flat earthers?
They’re heavily into spin, so on the draft front at least, they go more for breaking balls.
That said, changeups are hard. NH’s people were determined to have every starter throw one even if they sucked at it. I always wondered why they didn’t try cutters, or even the dreaded splitter.
Also considering this org won’t keep any pitcher longer than 6-7 years in the majors, why not teach splitters? Elbow problems? That’s the next teams problem.
With the height requirements from the previous FO the splitter would have made a lot of sense. Some of those tall guys had to have big hands and long fingers lol.
Diego Castillo back to the Yankees.
With Houston signing Hader, the reliever market is starting to dry up. It's one area of the team I'd feel comfortable enough to hear offers on anyone. Bednar would have to be ridiculous to move though.
Basallo is absolutely huge, but his bat looks real. I think he's a future 1st basemen and that's okay, just wish he was ours.
We can offer one nick gonzales
The Stick is gonna win the 2b job out of ST and bat .280 35 2b and 16 HR to pair with his above average defense at second, running away with rookie of the year. (He’s still a rookie, right?)
In 2022 Jim Callis was asked on a podcast to name a darkhorse to be the #1 prospect in baseball by beginning of 2023 and he said Nick Gonzales
Maybe he was a year off, I'll drink the kool-aid.
His exit velocities are awesome. don't know where I can see Launch angle. His barrel rate will be better than Reynolds... just need contact rate to go up.
That’s a big ask. Just need the contact to go up.
He's Bo Gentry from that Eastwood movie.
If he could just keep the barrel in the zone longer, he might not miss so many sliders.
I hope youre right
Maybe still a rookie, borderline?
Prediction: After the Pirates' usual 3+ months of allowing a basement budget free-agent to perform at a subreplacement level, Tellez is finally DFAd in mid-July and Gonzalez is handed the job at 1B as a last-ditch attempt to save his career.
5’9” 1b handling Cruz throws...... the horror 😱
Chavis did a job at it
IF NG is playing 1b we're way more F'd than anyone thinks
is Tellez a guarentee to break camp out of spring training? isnt his situation the same as Choi last year where we can drop him before March 31 and not have to pay his salary?
i could see it play out with all three Nick, Joe and Peguero lighting it up in Bradenton and forcing their way into mlb playing time in April
The Pirates are paying Tellez 3.2 million. Nothing short of an act of God will take him out of the starting lineup until he has put up at least -1 WAR over more than 3 months of play.
Tellez is on a guaranteed contract for $3.2 million, it can get to $4 million with bonuses. He's with the team unless they trade him and they can't trade him until the end of May beginning of June.
If thats true, could also enjoy dropping tellez and picking up belt
I could see it, but I'm currently drinking the kool-aid and NickyG is going to win ROY!
BTW... I fired up a new game of Out of the Park before I went on vacation a couple weeks ago and started an expansion team. I broke my rule of not participating in the rule 5 draft (since the AI leaves too many good MLB-ready players available) and selected Jorge Barrosa. He's been my 4th OFer for the first 4 seasons of the franchise and has put up between .4 and .7 WAR in 300 or so PAs per season. Very happy with him. Great pinch-runner... had 59 runs scored one year... 21 as a pinch runner.
17 years old at AA with a 53 wRC+....only SD would rush prospects at this rate! WTF?!?!?!
We're talking SSS with this kid, but he only had a 35wRC+ in high to get that promotion to AA
The fact that Preller isn't universally known as an abject failure speaks to the ridiculous zeitgeist over promoting kids for the sake of promoting them.
He's got an objectively worse track record than even Huntington.
Nobody seems to give a shit that this doesn't work.
Fans and the media don’t actually care if you’re effective. They just care that you try to win, the more reckless the better. Hence how Preller is viewed: the big contracts, win now trades etc. You see the same thing with a guy like Dombrowski who is more effective at it, even though everyone ignores “the massive cleanup on aisle 8” as he rushes out to the door to avoid the mess he created.
Like his methods or not, Dombo is a HOF executive: pennants with four different organizations, two WS titles, a bunch of playoff appearances.
He helped build the last good Expos team, then took over an expansion franchise. Helped build that franchise up with FAs, tore it down under orders, then helped develop the next Marlins championship group before going to Detroit (which was almost like a second expansion club). It took awhile, but that ended up the best Tigers teams since the 80’s.
He’s won with both building up and free spending. In an industry run by groupthink, he operates differently and I find that refreshing. Especially since we’re sold a tomorrow that never comes in this rebuild.
Preller is the dollar tree version of Dombrowski. It ain’t even close.
To be clear, I’m not trying to downplay DD’s successes. I’m just pointing out that no one considers the aftermath of his successes because he scoots out of town when things start to go askew. I’ll particularly take issue with a few of the ridiculous extensions he signed: Chris Sale and Miguel Cabrera. I agree with “dollar tree” assessment of Preller. No it’s not close. Dombrowski would never assemble such flawed rosters, despite the similarity of their win now tactics.
And yes, the endless rebuild is exhausting. But I’d prefer something more sustainable than Dombrowski/Preller scorched earth win now tactics. There’s something desirable between that, and what we have now, IMO. Unfortunately, and to the original point of my post: most Pirates fans seem to want the Preller approach adopted: one that might never guarantee you a playoff appearance, but is sure to guarantee at least a half decade of wandering in the desert.
Dombo had an extended run in Detroit of success. Starting with the surprise WS run in 2006, Detroit won at least 86 games in seven of the next nine seasons. Looks pretty sustained to me.
I do agree that, given Pittsburgh’s financial limitations, they can’t come close to operating like that. But rebuilds shouldn’t take this long if teams actually know what they’re doing.
I’m quite sure teams are aware of his methods, especially since they’ve gotten more pronounced as he’s gotten older. His methods are exactly why Boston brought him on in the first place: to win a title and quickly. Boston may have been better off keeping Dombrowski instead of hiring Bloom. I don’t think there’s anyway Dombrowski bones up the Betts/Bogaerts situation like Bloom did.
He had Verlander in his age 22 season and Cabrera in his age 25 season, along with ample resources to keep both through their prime. It’s always going to look sustainable when you have two of the best players to ever play the game in recent times through their entire primes. I’m skeptical he could’ve repeated such a scenario with a team with lesser resources, let alone a situation as ridiculous as the Pirates.
“Rebuilds shouldn’t take this long.” Agreed, but in most instances competently run teams should never have to rebuild if they know when to retool. If the Pirates had taken a step back after 2016 and restocked the cupboards a bit for a year or two we’d have been back to contention in no time. But they wanted to keep smashing down on the throttle signing extensions, taking a lesser return for Cole to get immediate help, the Archer trade, etc.
I’m torn on the question of the Red Sox. The Sale extension was termination worthy IMO. But to dump a guy so quickly after winning a World Series seems a bit unceremonious to me. And of course I haven’t been impressed with FSG’s management of the Red Sox, including this offseason. Plenty of blame to go around there.
I'll give Preller credit for trading a bunch of those youngins while their value is high. A couple have panned out but several are lookin like busts or much less than they were valued.
Knowing Preller, the fast promotions are with the idea of trading him.
Yep, if Salas can OPS over .600 at double A, he'll be ranked the top 1 or 2 prospects overall (already 5). If he struggles, they'll just say how young he is and not really drop.
I wonder if they keep him at double A or start him in the majors this year lol.
Axiel plaz is going to rebound and thrive this year, i hear he's the next joe mauer
The most interesting development to monitor in Pirates organization this year is:
1. Paul Skenes fastball.
1A. Bubba Chandler secondary pitches.
2. Termarr Johnson hit tool.
3. Lonnie White’s entire game.
Everything else is secondary to these 4 things in my opinion.
Sundays feature will add a fifth thing to that list
100% on #3. One of the position player prospects has to explode at some point. Please? I can’t say I’m predicting that it will be White, but he’s got the best chance —— either him or Polanco.
Nick Gonzales´ k rate
see Neil Walkers indy stats from 2008 to 2009
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=walker001nei
If Nick ever learns to hit the curveball, it’s a game changer for Pirates offense.
I would broaden 1B. Fastball regression and command across the board.
Yes. I’m guilty of trying to be as succinct as possible. Not my strong suit.
1. Skenes FB will still blow away minor leaguers. The ultimate test is when he gets the call to the Show.
If Pirates development staff is worth anything they will teach Skenes to shape his fastball better. 100 mph flat as a pancake will get hit hard in MLB.
or pair his rising 4 seamer with a sinker down in the zone. His 102 aint Caminero flat, it moves.
Did he spend time at Tread or Drive Line this winter? I sure hope so.
Not sure on that one, Scott
He does have very good horizontal movement on his fastball just not the vertical movement.
I did say it was flat not straight.
True
I do think AAA will be a good test for him to understand that AAA or even better AA hitters won't chase at the same pitches that college hitters did. Hopefully they force him to not just get outs the easy way (gas them) but work batters 'pretending' they are major league hitters. Leiter has learned some hard lessons on the difference in hitters as he took that jump.
Man, I hear you and then some. But Skenes is on another planet compared to Leiter.
I don't agree 'another planet'. Leiter blew through SEC and was considered for the top pick in the entire draft. I agree Skenes from a rating perspective was considered higher, but not by some landslide. Lieter (small stature his negative) was looked at as a fast moving prospect who would be at least a '2'. Two different players and one result does not predict the other, but I am always cautionary with great expectations.
Even if the hype around both is somewhat similar (idiots like Tim Benz said Leiter was generational...I’m all for that term getting retired), Skenes is better in terms of stats and stuff.
Skenes had a video game like 10.5 K-B ratio. That’s insane. Leiter? A shade under 4. Leiter did well in the SEC, but Skenes was other worldly. We’ll see what he does when he gets started.
I agree and now feel like I am some kind of Skenes doubter. I think he is the real deal but I also want patience. Even with top of the rotation stuff I think there are habits (confidence) that is built from blowing away hitters that basically had no chance. The NCAA hitter and MLB hitter are different animals and need dealt with differently over the full lineup. . Who knows, he may not really feel that until MLB, but I am still a cautious optimist.
Disagree there, Leiter always had command concerns and Skeenes is getting compared to Stras, besides going one-one.
Not only command concerns but fluctuating velo as well.
Very good list. I might add Jared Jones getting a mediocre third pitch, just enough to solidify him as a legitimate starter long term. At the Major League level, I really feel they need at least one (hopefully two) of Priester, Burrows(really a 2025 stmt IMO), Ortiz, and Contreras to become a dependable starter even if at the 4-5 spots.
A Solo change up will do wonders, skeptical of a
Lefty starter without a change!
Does anyone in Pirates organization have the first clue how to teach a change up? Do they even recognise its’ existence? Are they change up flat earthers?
They’re heavily into spin, so on the draft front at least, they go more for breaking balls.
That said, changeups are hard. NH’s people were determined to have every starter throw one even if they sucked at it. I always wondered why they didn’t try cutters, or even the dreaded splitter.
Also considering this org won’t keep any pitcher longer than 6-7 years in the majors, why not teach splitters? Elbow problems? That’s the next teams problem.
With the height requirements from the previous FO the splitter would have made a lot of sense. Some of those tall guys had to have big hands and long fingers lol.
Very hard row to hoe: a lefty starter with no changeup.