I think hes probably getting a ton of value from his defense, the whole lineup probably is. That projection makes me much more scared of them than I was before
Good morning and continued thanks for this 6 am line. Reading the explanations of why Nolan Arenado blocked the trade, it was the right thing for him to do with the information available. And, after spending most of my career in the world of contract negotiations, it is almost always the right move. He's an excellent player but nothing better than the possibility of Ke'Bryan Hayes coming back to his 2023 stats of 31 doubles, 7 triples, 15 HR, 61 RBI and a Gold Glove. We had a fantastic return last year by Oneil Cruz - can we get another in 2025 from Ke?
Two excellent articles on Spencer Horwitz from Alex Stumpf on the Pirates page. Good read about how he was called to tell him he had been traded to Cleveland, but then told to stand by because Cleveland had received another offer. After it all shook out he said it was good to be wanted.
I'm still hoping that the As will bite on Hayes and give the Pirates something, anything (or even nothing) for him. It's hard to work on Nutting's budget and have $20 million tied up in players like IKF, Hayes, and Bednar. The Pirates just cannot afford so many, not-cheap, question marks when they are trying to compete. If they were still tanking (assuming that they are not), keeping Hayes would make sense to try to boost his value. They just don't have the time or money to burn right now to hope that his back improves IMO.
I may be unknowledgeable about the worth of IKF, but for my $0.02 I would unload him to anyone who would pick up that $7.5 mil. My choice would be Liover Peguero - he did well enough for the Pirates as a 22 year old and I see him as the future at that position, unless the Pirates work a deal for Jacob Wilson. That would take a SP, but you get an excellent SS and an unpaid infield coach in the deal!
I personally think Peguero is too big of a leap (risk!) for a team trying to compete. He was mediocre in AAA last year at the plate as I am not sure what others are seeing beyond a decent 2023 MLB showing. I personally like him and if he can beat out others for the backup / swing infield role (which IMO would include up to 2 starts a week at SS for him) then he has a chance to prove he could be a starter (or not). IKF is safe and boring and should hit 8th or 9th, but that would be my current preference. IF the $7.5 could be unloaded then I think they need another low budget option at SS and not give it to Peggy. BTW, personally I don't include Nick, Triolo, or other infielders (outside of Williams and well 'just no') as true SS options outside of maybe 1 start in 10 games in a backup role.
Peguero looks like a short sided platoon at second or a backup utility infielder with sub par defense on the left side of the infield. I hope there's more in him though.
He was granted a 4th option year, which is very, very helpful to the Pirates. It seems to me that the best application of Peguero this year is to make good use of that 4th option and keep him in AAA as depth and to see if he can develop a better feel for the strike zone.
Not sure why everyone wants to see him fail at MLB. The kid is only 23 and has an option. Use it.
I would keep IKF over giving him away for nothing. He is definitely worth something. He has consistently hit for decent average and has consistently made pretty solid, if unspectacular, contact throughout his career. He is an average SS at best, but can contribute positively on defense at 2B or 3B. Fairly consistent 1.5 fWAR or more player. $7.5 million is on the cheap side for a guy with his track record and talent.
He is a good player, just not for the Pirates, because $7.5 million here, $7 million there, and very quickly, you have no money to fill holes or extend your stars by pulling forward some salary into the pre-arb. and arb. years.
I agree with your take here on Peggy/IKF. I want to see more Peggy but I don’t think there is any way they move IKF. They like him, they like his positional flexibility, they look at him as a vet/leader, and he was with Hague last year in Toronto when he was having a career year.
IKF is a great bench piece on a contender that can hit and play plus defense at multiple positions. The hope is that some of these young guys (or BC through an acquisition ha!)push him to that role on the 2025 pirates
He had a big year at AA and was promoted to AAA where he spent 7 games before being called up to the Pirates after the Cruz injury and nobody able to handle the SS position. He did well defensively and paid his dues offensively. Then sent back to AAA in 2024 - think maybe his head was spinning a little? I hope he will get a chance this year.
One of the interesting things in those articles is that the Pirates didn't approach the Guardians about Horwitz until after the Guardians had acquired him. I had been thinking that it was more of a 3-team deal since reading that Cherington had tried previously to acquire Horwitz from the Jays.
So, evidently the Guardians liked Horwitz beyond using him to acquire the three pitchers, but then they didn't need much time to decide about the Pirates offer. I guess this makes me more optimistic about Horwitz while also thinking we gave up more than we needed to, which almost seems contradictory :)
Or BC and the GM from Cleveland had already spoken about the Pirates "want" and what they might be willing to give if the Indians made Horwitz a want in their trade with the Jays - probably never know.
"Then when I got traded to Pittsburgh, I was super excited because I know they've been looking for some more offense, and obviously I get to work with [hitting coach] Matt Hague again. He's been my hitting coach since Double-A. I work really well with him and I'm excited to hopefully continue that."
Hague is not much older than these guys and seems to be able to communicate well with the hitters he has worked with. I am cautiously optimistic. Just think if we developed hitters even 75% as well as we develop pitchers!
Two of us in the family. I grew up in organized labor working as a steelworker and in the construction trades during and after college. My first job in Labor Relations was at a construction site in Sioux City, Iowa. My wife was a member of the CWA Union in Pittsburgh, and was elected to the Board of the CWA in Sioux City soon after we arrived. She would bring home the grievances and I would tell her how management would respond, and we'd work the strategy from there.
Do you speak Spanish? Can you come down here and negotiate for my wife's teacher's union, which always seems to lose in contract negotiations with the Province... even when we had the Kirchners and a supposedly pro-labor government (actually just pro-welfare... they didn't really care in anyone worked).
No Bleday. No Mayer either. Jacob Wilson, OK. These types of things are silly, and I hope GMBC and co. are paying no mind to this nonsense. Jones is worth a lot... absolutely more than a 27-year-old who has gone through 2 years of control and produced a total of 3 fWAR.
Mayer hasn't even played in AAA yet and has a history of injuries about a mile long. Mayer plus plus would be my response if the Red Sox came a calling about Jones for Mayer, and those pluses would have to include someone who can contribute on opening day 2025.
I'm a yes for Jones for Mayer and agree Pirates should not expect anything else in that trade. Yes Mayer has had injuries but none seem career ending or chronic and if we are poking holes in the trade, take Jones 2024 first month + and he reverted to the starting pitcher who walks too many (future closer?). Both are very young and both could fix / overcome their issue and challenges. Mayer could be in the Majors but mid year and could be the SS until he hits free agency.
Kepler to the Phillies
Thinking of doing a mailbag episode for next weeks podcast, would just be me recording.
Would you all be interested in that?
YES YES YES YES
Man, that Cubs projection. They're really high on PCA
I think hes probably getting a ton of value from his defense, the whole lineup probably is. That projection makes me much more scared of them than I was before
the 97 wRC+ seems a little high to me.
Either way, that team is stacked.
Tucker definitely changes their lineup from good to potentially great
They're getting 4+ wins from 4 positions and left field they're getting 3.7. I would guess, they'll upgrade 3b at some point this off season.
That entire lineup, sheesh.
Good morning and continued thanks for this 6 am line. Reading the explanations of why Nolan Arenado blocked the trade, it was the right thing for him to do with the information available. And, after spending most of my career in the world of contract negotiations, it is almost always the right move. He's an excellent player but nothing better than the possibility of Ke'Bryan Hayes coming back to his 2023 stats of 31 doubles, 7 triples, 15 HR, 61 RBI and a Gold Glove. We had a fantastic return last year by Oneil Cruz - can we get another in 2025 from Ke?
Two excellent articles on Spencer Horwitz from Alex Stumpf on the Pirates page. Good read about how he was called to tell him he had been traded to Cleveland, but then told to stand by because Cleveland had received another offer. After it all shook out he said it was good to be wanted.
Ke is going to come back with a vengeance this year to be worth 4 WAR, you heard it here first!
Didn't know you were on the teams medical staff, is Oviedo going to be ready to roll opening day or is his rehab set back at all?
Don’t forget that ex-presidents have access to all sorts of non-public information.
How did he describe his injury?
Always look forward to the Morning Mel-down. ;)
Only on a cold day in Mel will we not have a thoughtful post to start the day!
Was reaching trying to match your creativity but might have been a swing and a miss
Take a bow, son. Take a bow.
Nailed it!
I'm still hoping that the As will bite on Hayes and give the Pirates something, anything (or even nothing) for him. It's hard to work on Nutting's budget and have $20 million tied up in players like IKF, Hayes, and Bednar. The Pirates just cannot afford so many, not-cheap, question marks when they are trying to compete. If they were still tanking (assuming that they are not), keeping Hayes would make sense to try to boost his value. They just don't have the time or money to burn right now to hope that his back improves IMO.
I may be unknowledgeable about the worth of IKF, but for my $0.02 I would unload him to anyone who would pick up that $7.5 mil. My choice would be Liover Peguero - he did well enough for the Pirates as a 22 year old and I see him as the future at that position, unless the Pirates work a deal for Jacob Wilson. That would take a SP, but you get an excellent SS and an unpaid infield coach in the deal!
I personally think Peguero is too big of a leap (risk!) for a team trying to compete. He was mediocre in AAA last year at the plate as I am not sure what others are seeing beyond a decent 2023 MLB showing. I personally like him and if he can beat out others for the backup / swing infield role (which IMO would include up to 2 starts a week at SS for him) then he has a chance to prove he could be a starter (or not). IKF is safe and boring and should hit 8th or 9th, but that would be my current preference. IF the $7.5 could be unloaded then I think they need another low budget option at SS and not give it to Peggy. BTW, personally I don't include Nick, Triolo, or other infielders (outside of Williams and well 'just no') as true SS options outside of maybe 1 start in 10 games in a backup role.
Peguero looks like a short sided platoon at second or a backup utility infielder with sub par defense on the left side of the infield. I hope there's more in him though.
Kinda failed with that Marte trade. They were all excited about Peguero .
He was granted a 4th option year, which is very, very helpful to the Pirates. It seems to me that the best application of Peguero this year is to make good use of that 4th option and keep him in AAA as depth and to see if he can develop a better feel for the strike zone.
Not sure why everyone wants to see him fail at MLB. The kid is only 23 and has an option. Use it.
I would keep IKF over giving him away for nothing. He is definitely worth something. He has consistently hit for decent average and has consistently made pretty solid, if unspectacular, contact throughout his career. He is an average SS at best, but can contribute positively on defense at 2B or 3B. Fairly consistent 1.5 fWAR or more player. $7.5 million is on the cheap side for a guy with his track record and talent.
He is a good player, just not for the Pirates, because $7.5 million here, $7 million there, and very quickly, you have no money to fill holes or extend your stars by pulling forward some salary into the pre-arb. and arb. years.
The 3 walks to 41 K's sent a message to me that he did not have his head in the game.
You also have to remember he was coming off an injury and spent quite a bit of time on the IL.
Pirates are not paying IKF 7.5 in 2025. Jays are still on the hook for 1.6+
Pirates are only paying 5.8M. Which is a bargain, even for a guy like IKF.
I thought that money was applied to last year's salary? I think Ethan mentioned it in his year end summary, but I could have it wrong.
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/pirates
under "other payments"
I agree with your take here on Peggy/IKF. I want to see more Peggy but I don’t think there is any way they move IKF. They like him, they like his positional flexibility, they look at him as a vet/leader, and he was with Hague last year in Toronto when he was having a career year.
IKF is a great bench piece on a contender that can hit and play plus defense at multiple positions. The hope is that some of these young guys (or BC through an acquisition ha!)push him to that role on the 2025 pirates
He had a big year at AA and was promoted to AAA where he spent 7 games before being called up to the Pirates after the Cruz injury and nobody able to handle the SS position. He did well defensively and paid his dues offensively. Then sent back to AAA in 2024 - think maybe his head was spinning a little? I hope he will get a chance this year.
One of the interesting things in those articles is that the Pirates didn't approach the Guardians about Horwitz until after the Guardians had acquired him. I had been thinking that it was more of a 3-team deal since reading that Cherington had tried previously to acquire Horwitz from the Jays.
So, evidently the Guardians liked Horwitz beyond using him to acquire the three pitchers, but then they didn't need much time to decide about the Pirates offer. I guess this makes me more optimistic about Horwitz while also thinking we gave up more than we needed to, which almost seems contradictory :)
Or BC and the GM from Cleveland had already spoken about the Pirates "want" and what they might be willing to give if the Indians made Horwitz a want in their trade with the Jays - probably never know.
In any case, I did like this quote
"Then when I got traded to Pittsburgh, I was super excited because I know they've been looking for some more offense, and obviously I get to work with [hitting coach] Matt Hague again. He's been my hitting coach since Double-A. I work really well with him and I'm excited to hopefully continue that."
A good April for Kiner-Falefa would be big for both the Pirates and Hague.
Hague is not much older than these guys and seems to be able to communicate well with the hitters he has worked with. I am cautiously optimistic. Just think if we developed hitters even 75% as well as we develop pitchers!
True--as I read farther, that became a more likely possibility.
OTOH, maybe the Guards knew the Pirates would be interested in Horwitz, especially if the Jays had mentioned it:
"It’s why the Pirates and Guardians had long talked about a deal for a first baseman before Horwitz was with the organization."
Contract negotiations? No wonder you’re so good at the ole give and take. 😎
On the surface, the Arenado deal doesn’t make sense. I’m sure he has reasons for nixing the deal, but I doubt we’ll ever know the real reason why.
Two of us in the family. I grew up in organized labor working as a steelworker and in the construction trades during and after college. My first job in Labor Relations was at a construction site in Sioux City, Iowa. My wife was a member of the CWA Union in Pittsburgh, and was elected to the Board of the CWA in Sioux City soon after we arrived. She would bring home the grievances and I would tell her how management would respond, and we'd work the strategy from there.
Sounds like a stressful life me, but I’m sure you and your wife’s work was much appreciated.
But most importantly, do you know where Jimmy Hoffa is buried?
Do you speak Spanish? Can you come down here and negotiate for my wife's teacher's union, which always seems to lose in contract negotiations with the Province... even when we had the Kirchners and a supposedly pro-labor government (actually just pro-welfare... they didn't really care in anyone worked).
No Bleday. No Mayer either. Jacob Wilson, OK. These types of things are silly, and I hope GMBC and co. are paying no mind to this nonsense. Jones is worth a lot... absolutely more than a 27-year-old who has gone through 2 years of control and produced a total of 3 fWAR.
But think of all those cheap cost control years in his prime you’ll get Bleday 😂
This is his last pre-arb. year.
Mayer hasn't even played in AAA yet and has a history of injuries about a mile long. Mayer plus plus would be my response if the Red Sox came a calling about Jones for Mayer, and those pluses would have to include someone who can contribute on opening day 2025.
I'm a yes for Jones for Mayer and agree Pirates should not expect anything else in that trade. Yes Mayer has had injuries but none seem career ending or chronic and if we are poking holes in the trade, take Jones 2024 first month + and he reverted to the starting pitcher who walks too many (future closer?). Both are very young and both could fix / overcome their issue and challenges. Mayer could be in the Majors but mid year and could be the SS until he hits free agency.