Pirates sign Chapman, one year $10.5. Don't really see this as the best place to spend $7M, as they'll flip him at the deadline. He can also be a train wreck trying to throw strikes in the 8th inning. Bring on Bednar for a 5-out save. Not really enamored with this, but it may sell some tickets for Bob.
Shocker: a positive national article about the Pirates.
Bradford Doolittle of ESPN developed a breakout index based on factors that led to teams exploding on the scene over the past couple decades. The team has to have been below .500 in the previous season to be eligible. He has the Pirates as the third most likely team to break out in 2024 based primarily on their youth and recent farm system performance. The first two teams are the Red Sox (farm system) and the Mets (bounce back after worse than expected 2023).
He dares to compare them to the 2008 Rays, who went from 66 to 97 wins. Joe Madden was the manager. The 2022 Guardians are a more recent comp.
A note of warning: the Cubs scored highest on the index for this year, but they are not eligible as they finished above .500 (barely) in 2023. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 5th.
I would post the piece, but it’s behind the ESPN+ pay wall.
I'm curious how the new AA hitting coach will do. IIRC Atloona didn't hit all that well last year and yet Nunnally got all that praise for fixing Hayes. So I'm sure someone will scrutinize it eventually.
Going back to the Shim article, there has been a lack of transparency and/or the beat writers aren't asking. Shim was pulled after 8 IP because of some type of injury. That's my top concern until I see/hear that it was minor or precautionary.
It was a pec strain. The Pirates said it was minor, but it obviously wasn’t, although he did eventually return. Candid injury info on the team’s prospects is something they just don’t do.
I think it looked worse on paper because he was throwing on the side longer than normal. He wasn't really shutdown as long as it appears. He went 52 days between pitching in games, but what you saw in that first game back is someone who had already thrown multiple sim games. They were overly cautious with his return, but it wasn't a long time without throwing.
Others have mentioned it, so I think it's important to note that he put in plenty of innings during ST/Extended ST, so his innings limit in 2024 won't be as low as some people think.
Those pitching projections are scary! Keller leads the pack with a projected 4.21 ERA / 4.18 FIP. After that, they’re most optimistic about Priester with a 4.42/4.50 across 106 innings.
Most coming in at or below 1 WAR - the definition of a replacement level rotations
Projections seem to often be higher than reality, or at least are less likely to project overly positive seasons... at least that's what im telling myself this morning
Agree, but think these types of projections show upside, or lackthereof. Guys projected in the 2-3 WAR range, you can reasonably expect or hope for more, like 3-4+ WAR. 0-1 WAR guys, we’re really just hoping for average or slightly above at best.
I think Tim@P2 did his ZiPs projections using those ranges last year - was a really cool way to look at it. Who did you think was most likely to hit their 80th percentile vs those that 50 felt optimistic. Hope we can get some version of that article here this year
The Pirates of 2024 are set to move forward. The Draft Picks, especially the pitching, are processing through at a nice pace and the Rotations at Altoona and Indy should be very good. I do not think it necessary to plan to have Paul Skenes at the MLB level this year - big difference in competition from college to professional!
Our Starting Pitching will be an adventure, and the Pirates are still a year away from settling the lineup. That said, the Pirates very well could have the entire 2025 Rotation at the MLB level after 2024 trade deadline. They could also have our future starting CF onboard. Lighting candles!
That's 13 players which would be the max for position players. It may get to a point where somebody thinks about a 14/12 breakdown with pitching being favored, simply because we may have to go to at least one and possibly two BP games a week.
A few weeks ago I mentioned Everson Pereira of the Yankees, and Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox, both RH hitters. There are probably others, but those were the two I think could be had without giving away the Farm.
First, the Yankees, at that time, were trying to find help for their BP. We have the ability to use one of our better bullpen arms for a ticket to ride. They have Judge, Soto, and for CF's they have Grisham and Jasson Dominguez, their No. 1 Prospect. No. 2 of their Top 10 is Spencer Jones, a CF. Pereira is a CF and is No. 3 of their Top 10. Lots of footspeed, defense, and power (double plus, 109 mph exit velo). Also a lot of swing and miss, but will only turn 23 in April. A gamble, but well worth it right now for the possible return of power and defense.
Rafaela with Boston hit for average and power at AA/AAA last year and then was promoted to MLB for 28 games - 83 AB, .241, 6 doubles 2 HR, lots of K's. Exc CF who can also play SS. Less power than Pereira.
Don't really want Pereira unless they could aquire him cheap, really cheap. Rafaela would be a good get and they could pickup Blaze Jordan while they're at it. Boston needs some pitching prospects. I would start with one guy on the 40 man (Ro, Ortiz, Priester or a bullpen piece) and another pitching prospect lower on the board.
Soto might walk after this year and Dominguez won’t play OF this season after elbow surgery. So they may hang onto Pereira for depth. Anyway, he’s pretty much cooled as a prospect considering he’s run K rates north of 25% since high A. Oh and his defense has gone backwards, so no thanks. I’d have rather they made a play for Florial (who was flipped to Cleveland).
I’d certainly take a run at Rafaela. He’s flawed, but if he’s as good defensively as the reports, they need some of that.
I remember being critical of the Cole trade because the Yankees were "loaded" with "high upside" kids in the lower minors and Huntington settled in going after Astros dudes who were mostly fully baked...and then every single one of the Yankee prospects, to a man, completely busted.
Fangraph projections are conservative by nature. So, we'll need to wait and see what Skenes does when he makes the show.
Pirates sign Chapman, one year $10.5. Don't really see this as the best place to spend $7M, as they'll flip him at the deadline. He can also be a train wreck trying to throw strikes in the 8th inning. Bring on Bednar for a 5-out save. Not really enamored with this, but it may sell some tickets for Bob.
Shocker: a positive national article about the Pirates.
Bradford Doolittle of ESPN developed a breakout index based on factors that led to teams exploding on the scene over the past couple decades. The team has to have been below .500 in the previous season to be eligible. He has the Pirates as the third most likely team to break out in 2024 based primarily on their youth and recent farm system performance. The first two teams are the Red Sox (farm system) and the Mets (bounce back after worse than expected 2023).
He dares to compare them to the 2008 Rays, who went from 66 to 97 wins. Joe Madden was the manager. The 2022 Guardians are a more recent comp.
A note of warning: the Cubs scored highest on the index for this year, but they are not eligible as they finished above .500 (barely) in 2023. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 5th.
I would post the piece, but it’s behind the ESPN+ pay wall.
Followed by an even bigger shocker.
NOW I get it. I had no idea what you were talking about.
Here is an article and complete list of the minor league staffs for 2024. Any thoughts? Most of these names mean nothing to me.
https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2024/01/22/pirates-minor-league-staff-assignments-altoona-indianapolis-changes-manager/stories/202401220045
I'm curious how the new AA hitting coach will do. IIRC Atloona didn't hit all that well last year and yet Nunnally got all that praise for fixing Hayes. So I'm sure someone will scrutinize it eventually.
Altoona in recent years has been where Pirate hitting prospects go to die.
Hopefully the new staff fixes that!
https://youtu.be/JkeE2O15RFs?si=LVn-pgA4hFyIGI1e
Going back to the Shim article, there has been a lack of transparency and/or the beat writers aren't asking. Shim was pulled after 8 IP because of some type of injury. That's my top concern until I see/hear that it was minor or precautionary.
It was a pec strain. The Pirates said it was minor, but it obviously wasn’t, although he did eventually return. Candid injury info on the team’s prospects is something they just don’t do.
I’d guess that’s kind of industry standard by teams in baseball
I think it looked worse on paper because he was throwing on the side longer than normal. He wasn't really shutdown as long as it appears. He went 52 days between pitching in games, but what you saw in that first game back is someone who had already thrown multiple sim games. They were overly cautious with his return, but it wasn't a long time without throwing.
Others have mentioned it, so I think it's important to note that he put in plenty of innings during ST/Extended ST, so his innings limit in 2024 won't be as low as some people think.
sources say Stumpf going to join us here in the comment section
Those pitching projections are scary! Keller leads the pack with a projected 4.21 ERA / 4.18 FIP. After that, they’re most optimistic about Priester with a 4.42/4.50 across 106 innings.
Most coming in at or below 1 WAR - the definition of a replacement level rotations
Projections seem to often be higher than reality, or at least are less likely to project overly positive seasons... at least that's what im telling myself this morning
Agree, but think these types of projections show upside, or lackthereof. Guys projected in the 2-3 WAR range, you can reasonably expect or hope for more, like 3-4+ WAR. 0-1 WAR guys, we’re really just hoping for average or slightly above at best.
I love how they do 20th/80th percentile projections now on FanGraphs. A *range* of outcomes is probably a much more accurate way to view these things.
I think Tim@P2 did his ZiPs projections using those ranges last year - was a really cool way to look at it. Who did you think was most likely to hit their 80th percentile vs those that 50 felt optimistic. Hope we can get some version of that article here this year
The Pirates of 2024 are set to move forward. The Draft Picks, especially the pitching, are processing through at a nice pace and the Rotations at Altoona and Indy should be very good. I do not think it necessary to plan to have Paul Skenes at the MLB level this year - big difference in competition from college to professional!
Our Starting Pitching will be an adventure, and the Pirates are still a year away from settling the lineup. That said, the Pirates very well could have the entire 2025 Rotation at the MLB level after 2024 trade deadline. They could also have our future starting CF onboard. Lighting candles!
Who be our future CF?
Bae steps forward this season in the field and also drag bunts more than 50% of his at bats
when Bae is on his game, I really like him batting 9th with Cruz leading off and Reynolds providing protection, batting 2nd
opening day lineup looking like this
(1) SS Cruz
(2) LF Reynolds
(3) DH Cutch
(4) RF Suwinski / Oliveres
(5) C Tank / Delay
(6) 1B Tellez / Joe
(7) 3B Hayes
(8) 2B Peguero / Triolo
(9) CF Bae
Cutch should be a 5 or 6 hitter at this stage. We need a real 1B and at least one real SP.
I don’t mind Cutch at leadoff. Why? Because he gets on base.
That's 13 players which would be the max for position players. It may get to a point where somebody thinks about a 14/12 breakdown with pitching being favored, simply because we may have to go to at least one and possibly two BP games a week.
maybe if they find another suitable platoon
too bad one of nick or Peguero are not left handed or switch hitters
You can only have 13 pitchers on the 26 man roster.
I prefer this on most days.
1. Cruz
2. Hayes
3. Reynolds
4. Suwinski
5. Cutch
6. Tellez
7. Joe
8. Davis
9. Peguero
Obviously Delay and Triolo will play many days, as will the other MI who makes the roster.
Suwinski needs to bat 5th, go check out his splits lol.
The mike trout of 5th in the batting order
Shelton won’t platoon Jack. He should, but he won’t.
Bae won’t play CF, probably won’t make the team. Cutch will play RF. Tellez shouldn’t step on the field without a bat more than maybe once a month.
Cutch should in no way be anything but an emergency RF.
if Bae is not playing the majority of games in centerfield, then he should go to the minors and Palacios should instead break camp with the team
A few weeks ago I mentioned Everson Pereira of the Yankees, and Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox, both RH hitters. There are probably others, but those were the two I think could be had without giving away the Farm.
First, the Yankees, at that time, were trying to find help for their BP. We have the ability to use one of our better bullpen arms for a ticket to ride. They have Judge, Soto, and for CF's they have Grisham and Jasson Dominguez, their No. 1 Prospect. No. 2 of their Top 10 is Spencer Jones, a CF. Pereira is a CF and is No. 3 of their Top 10. Lots of footspeed, defense, and power (double plus, 109 mph exit velo). Also a lot of swing and miss, but will only turn 23 in April. A gamble, but well worth it right now for the possible return of power and defense.
Rafaela with Boston hit for average and power at AA/AAA last year and then was promoted to MLB for 28 games - 83 AB, .241, 6 doubles 2 HR, lots of K's. Exc CF who can also play SS. Less power than Pereira.
Don't really want Pereira unless they could aquire him cheap, really cheap. Rafaela would be a good get and they could pickup Blaze Jordan while they're at it. Boston needs some pitching prospects. I would start with one guy on the 40 man (Ro, Ortiz, Priester or a bullpen piece) and another pitching prospect lower on the board.
I don’t think that gets it done. They’d likely have to give up a decent piece off the MLB roster (Holderman?) to get there.
Probably right, I like Holderman but a potential CF and 1st basemen would far surpass what we gave up to get him.
Soto might walk after this year and Dominguez won’t play OF this season after elbow surgery. So they may hang onto Pereira for depth. Anyway, he’s pretty much cooled as a prospect considering he’s run K rates north of 25% since high A. Oh and his defense has gone backwards, so no thanks. I’d have rather they made a play for Florial (who was flipped to Cleveland).
I’d certainly take a run at Rafaela. He’s flawed, but if he’s as good defensively as the reports, they need some of that.
I remember being critical of the Cole trade because the Yankees were "loaded" with "high upside" kids in the lower minors and Huntington settled in going after Astros dudes who were mostly fully baked...and then every single one of the Yankee prospects, to a man, completely busted.
I'm very, very good at these things. ;)
I'm just glad we got Joe instead of Forrest. I wanted Forrest at the time and he still hasn't made his mlb debut.
I remember being incensed that they made JB friggin Bukauskus "untouchable". Oops!
Hey, we could’ve developed Hoy Park and Miguel Andujar.
Different problem there — Yankee Overhype.
Anyways that was an Estevan Florial post. Thanks for listening.
Like both of those guys if we could get our hands on either.
I misread my first time through and thought that you meant we already have our future CF in the system and was confused lol
With regards to a lot of the "way too early mock drafts" I've seen, a lot have emphasized the Justin Horowitz hiring and him being a big bat-first guy
Who’s that?
He's a guy with a name and a face, apparently
Does he know more or less about baseball than travis williams
Hopefully? Lol
good, we need some!