StatCast now does AAA data, and I can't tell you anything about accuracy or what any of this means, but i filtered for production against fastballs 94mph or greater:
Then what is his problem in MLB... truly a sincere question. I have been running with the 'can't hit velo' commentary. Keep in mind I am a preacher of the AAA is not MLB mantra so is it that simple?
I hear you man, basically why I prefaced my post with "... I can't tell you anything about accuracy or what any of this means..."!
Best I could guess is that these pitch-specific data sets are much more complicated than face value because of how quality of other pitches affect one another.
We all know a good changeup is the best antidote to a bad fastball. By that logic, if big league changeups/breaking balls are better than their AAA counterparts then that would make big league fastballs that much better as well.
Those are neat search parameters. I just stole them for my own search.
Speaking of can't hit velocity... and you guys laughed at me when I pointed this out last off-season (without any reference to Statcast). You would think that the Pirates could at least look the guys that they acquire up on Statcast to realize that they are getting junk.
With all the consternation over baseball seams being higher or lower by the diameter of a human hair, I don't quite understand how that could lead to a ton of homers and higher offense but moving all the fences in also leads to a ton of homers but not change in offense.
It really would be a hoot to see some of the old timey cavernous parks in today’s game. Most of the stadiums today seem to run fairly similarly in dimensions anyway.
Cinci fans must be jumping off their respective bridges at this point, right? Near-total collapse of that vaunted core of young bats we heard about so much last year.
After spending seconds evaluating their organizational hitting philosophy, I've determined their problem is a one-size fits all approach.
A like for the comment on hitting philosophizing. I remember you beating the drum fairly regularly last year about their core being over their skis. Make it worse on normal regression is they also ran into some bad luck this year (Marte’s suspension and McLain’s injury).
They have the best young position player and the second best young pitcher (25 and under) in the division. Those are great building blocks. They probably do have a better base of talent around those two players, but they’ll have to get it to coalesce to make it work. Honestly I think they’ve got the best shot at taking down Milwaukee in the next few years.
Two winters ago, nobody was writing about the incoming surge of Cinci offensive talent. What happened was they had a bunch of bats put up numbers and people took notice.
The only problem was that they were hitting way over their heads. I think I counted five regulars with an actual wOBA more than 30 points above expected. Regression was due, and it has come.
Maybe, mayyyybe a slight edge to the Reds on bats. But overall? I'll take the Pirates.
Interesting. I’m more inclined to think their “rebuild” will pay off because it’s built around bats, rather than arms. Too much inherent risk in the latter. I look at our Bucs and the best version I see is the de Grom/Thor/Harvey Mets where glory was fleeting).
For the Reds, they certainly targeted bats first. The FG 2023 list had seven players tagged as a 50 or higher; all but one (Abbott) were bats. Now, you’re certainly right that those bats out kicked their coverage (mixed sports metaphor alert). But other than Friedl and Elly (who is now a monster) aren’t all of the wOBA’s they had from 2023 at least serviceable? Elly gives them a massive head start at the plate but maybe Oneil evens that up.
Also, even though there was no way they could forecast those infield injuries, that Sixteen Candelario signing looks bad. Yeesh.
I agree because power is just really hard to acquire cheaply. Acquiring power hitters early in arbitration costs a fortune in prospects. If you acquire a power hitter later in arbitration you can’t afford the salary, because home runs pay. Part of why guys like Tellez, Jesus Aguilar, etc are always getting non-tendered is because the arbitration process overweights traditional stats, in their case home runs, where the salary awarded in arbitration is poor value. A team on a budget like ours can only afford the most flawed power hitters in free agency, like Tellez. So you end up acquiring guys like BDLC and hoping for the best. Pitching is a different animal: it’s easier to find value in trades and free agency, and if you draft enough higher octane high school arms in the middle rounds you’re going to find a few Bubba Chandlers and Tyler Glasnows.
For me it’s a question of approach and depth. I thought their approach to their rebuild was far superior to ours. They sold guys at peak value and got quality returns. Compare what they got for guys like Mahle and Castillo versus what we got for Musgrove and Taillon. Also like the focus on power hitters. They are fairly deep in quality and possible quality hitters like McClain, Collier, De La Cruz, Fraley, Marte, CES, Arroyo, Sal Stewart, Tyler Stephenson, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer and Rece Hinds that even if half those guys wash out they’ll still be loaded. It’s an embarrassment of riches. Although I’d rather have our pitching, obviously, it’s not like they skimped there either. Greene, Lodolo, Burns and Lowder look like solid arms and they have some interesting back end guys too.
You too. There isn’t really a right and wrong answer here beyond preference. And we won’t know who was right for years anyways. Remember when the Blue Jays core was going to win all those World Series?
I love his bat flip. I done that twice, on the golf course, normally drive the ball around 220, on the 2 “club” flip” I drove the short par 4, 300+ on the green and I knew it the moment I made contact. Is a good feeling, especially when so rare!!!!!
Those are the shots that keep you coming back. I’ll spray drives all over all day, swear I’m done with the game, then play a couple good holes and I’m back the next weekend.
I golfed back in the day when I was spry. Never very good... but anyway... one day... I play the 9-hole round of my life. I'm on the green in 2 at the 9th... 32 strokes to get to that point... 4 under par for the round. Just need a 3-putt to finish a below-par 9 holes.... only need 4 putt to finish at par. I 5-putt the green and finish the round over par somehow. That was sort of the story of golf career.
You don't know the worst of it. I was maybe 10 or 12 feet from the cup! It was simple 2 putt and a good golfer would have sunk the first putt at least 40% of the time.
I really want Henry Davis called up Sept 1st to see if he can take his AAA success to the bigs. However, if he’s not, he will end the season very close to 1.000 service time. The team might be able to preserve a year of control by leaving him down. I am also the king of YOC management on potential impact players. Tough call for me.
Was listening to Eno and DVR this morning, they think Yorke's floor could be a 15/15 guy at second base which is no star but certainly valuable. Also, they talked a bit comparing coby mayo and hank as guys that killed AAA but are struggling with fastballs in the majors. Advanced scouting reports early are one thing they noted as well as the ABS in AAA having lowered the top of the zone, so they might be giving up called strikes in that area that they werent seeing in the minors. DVR and Eno agreed that if you have a sample size of 10 guys with an OPS > .900 at AAA then they would confidently expect at least 7 to be big league average or better hitters.
Just thought this was some interesting stuff and wanted to share with yinz
I think if Hank could have a solid September at the big league level, that would be a huge development for next year’s team. Would maybe help him calm the hell down. He looks so amped up every at bat when he’s up with the big team. He goes to right center occasionally at Indy, while he looks like he’s trying to hit everything 110 mph down the left field line for the Bucs. I really think getting a little taste of success would go a long way. Or I could be an idiot and he has holes in his swing I’m too biased to see.
Nice pickup. The gap between AAA and mlb stuff-wise might be large right now, but good to know that hank is probably seeing a fairly similar mix of pitches as he would up here. Of course execution and actual stuff will be worlds apart
Yinz are too kind! This site makes almost all of my days better getting to shoot the shit with everyone dropping good knowledge and well thought out opinions, so just trying to keep up with everyone else
Honestly was a default user i got on another unrelated blog type media some time ago so now something i default to. No clue to be found in the name to the man behind it ;)
I just don't get the logic here...we're toast and carrying 4-5 guys with zero chance of being around next year...most have at least semi-viable replacement candidates worth taking a look at now, not that I'd expect all to succeed, but like, how many more Bae, MAT, Tree, etc. at bats does one possibly need to see?
I actually think sending Triolo down to Indy and giving him playing time at short and all 3 outfield spots. It would be beneficial to the team and him for his long-term viability as a 26th man. If he can play anywhere other than pitcher or catcher, being versatile defensively and an added pinch runner seems like his best chance to be a long-term piece.
Yep, Triolo has had an opportunity this year, it's close to the time to see if anything clicks with Peguero, Yorke, Cook and Davis. Nick Gonzales will be back soon as well. It'd be nice if a couple could be average to a little above average regulars, make the shopping list a little shorter in the off-season.
A nice day to to be a Pirate fan. Paul Skenes has that effect when he is throwing like he was last night, and getting an offensive lift from BDLC and Grandal give hope that the Pirates could possibly get near the .500 mark this year. And at AAA, two of our many MI prospects go yard, and Bubba Chandler finds a way to get it done even when probably not at his best.
Anyone catch the story of Kumar Rocker absolutely dominating his first month back on the mound?
So cool to see.
100 mph fb and devastating slider. Awesome to see!
the human body and modern medicine are amazing things. dude never steps on the mound again if this were, what, 30 years ago?
Good for him!
More interesting (to me) stuff...
StatCast now does AAA data, and I can't tell you anything about accuracy or what any of this means, but i filtered for production against fastballs 94mph or greater:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast-search-minors?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=678225&batters_lookup%5B%5D=680779&batters_lookup%5B%5D=693304&batters_lookup%5B%5D=685301&batters_lookup%5B%5D=678894&hfFlag=&hfLevel=&metric_1=api_p_release_speed&hfTeamAffiliate=&hfOpponentAffiliate=&metric_1_gt=94&metric_1_lt=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_ba=on&chk_stats_xba=on&chk_stats_obp=on&chk_stats_xobp=on&chk_stats_slg=on&chk_stats_xslg=on&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on&chk_stats_barrels_total=on&chk_stats_swing_miss_percent=on&chk_stats_launch_speed=on&chk_stats_hyper_speed=on&chk_stats_launch_angle=on&chk_stats_hardhit_percent=on&chk_stats_barrels_per_bbe_percent=on#results
Hank Davis smokes Nick Gonzales, Bae, and Peguero.
Only Matt Gorski is as productive against high velo.
if I’m reading this right, Davis has only 2 barrels and his hard hit rate is lower than the others.
yes, but he also makes far more contact which seems to be pushing his overall production on those pitches much higher.
Thanks, I subscribed to sites like this so other people help me make sense of all the data, gives me a headache!🤕
Then what is his problem in MLB... truly a sincere question. I have been running with the 'can't hit velo' commentary. Keep in mind I am a preacher of the AAA is not MLB mantra so is it that simple?
I hear you man, basically why I prefaced my post with "... I can't tell you anything about accuracy or what any of this means..."!
Best I could guess is that these pitch-specific data sets are much more complicated than face value because of how quality of other pitches affect one another.
We all know a good changeup is the best antidote to a bad fastball. By that logic, if big league changeups/breaking balls are better than their AAA counterparts then that would make big league fastballs that much better as well.
Those are neat search parameters. I just stole them for my own search.
Speaking of can't hit velocity... and you guys laughed at me when I pointed this out last off-season (without any reference to Statcast). You would think that the Pirates could at least look the guys that they acquire up on Statcast to realize that they are getting junk.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7CSI%7C&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=658668&hfFlag=&metric_1=api_p_release_speed&metric_1_gt=94&metric_1_lt=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_ba=on&chk_stats_xba=on&chk_stats_obp=on&chk_stats_xobp=on&chk_stats_slg=on&chk_stats_xslg=on&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on&chk_stats_barrels_total=on&chk_stats_babip=on&chk_stats_iso=on&chk_stats_swing_miss_percent=on#results
Super interesting article on FG:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-if-the-fences-were-all-the-same-distance-away/
With all the consternation over baseball seams being higher or lower by the diameter of a human hair, I don't quite understand how that could lead to a ton of homers and higher offense but moving all the fences in also leads to a ton of homers but not change in offense.
It really would be a hoot to see some of the old timey cavernous parks in today’s game. Most of the stadiums today seem to run fairly similarly in dimensions anyway.
Juice the ball.
Cinci fans must be jumping off their respective bridges at this point, right? Near-total collapse of that vaunted core of young bats we heard about so much last year.
After spending seconds evaluating their organizational hitting philosophy, I've determined their problem is a one-size fits all approach.
A like for the comment on hitting philosophizing. I remember you beating the drum fairly regularly last year about their core being over their skis. Make it worse on normal regression is they also ran into some bad luck this year (Marte’s suspension and McLain’s injury).
I was gonna make a similar comment after last night’s game. There’s really no perfect way to rebuild.
The only good rebuild is one that never begins!
- Mat Arnold, probably
I’d still trade places talent wise in a heartbeat. Doesn’t hurt that they are willing to spend a little more either.
They have the best young position player and the second best young pitcher (25 and under) in the division. Those are great building blocks. They probably do have a better base of talent around those two players, but they’ll have to get it to coalesce to make it work. Honestly I think they’ve got the best shot at taking down Milwaukee in the next few years.
To each their own but I disagree.
Two winters ago, nobody was writing about the incoming surge of Cinci offensive talent. What happened was they had a bunch of bats put up numbers and people took notice.
The only problem was that they were hitting way over their heads. I think I counted five regulars with an actual wOBA more than 30 points above expected. Regression was due, and it has come.
Maybe, mayyyybe a slight edge to the Reds on bats. But overall? I'll take the Pirates.
Interesting. I’m more inclined to think their “rebuild” will pay off because it’s built around bats, rather than arms. Too much inherent risk in the latter. I look at our Bucs and the best version I see is the de Grom/Thor/Harvey Mets where glory was fleeting).
For the Reds, they certainly targeted bats first. The FG 2023 list had seven players tagged as a 50 or higher; all but one (Abbott) were bats. Now, you’re certainly right that those bats out kicked their coverage (mixed sports metaphor alert). But other than Friedl and Elly (who is now a monster) aren’t all of the wOBA’s they had from 2023 at least serviceable? Elly gives them a massive head start at the plate but maybe Oneil evens that up.
Also, even though there was no way they could forecast those infield injuries, that Sixteen Candelario signing looks bad. Yeesh.
I agree because power is just really hard to acquire cheaply. Acquiring power hitters early in arbitration costs a fortune in prospects. If you acquire a power hitter later in arbitration you can’t afford the salary, because home runs pay. Part of why guys like Tellez, Jesus Aguilar, etc are always getting non-tendered is because the arbitration process overweights traditional stats, in their case home runs, where the salary awarded in arbitration is poor value. A team on a budget like ours can only afford the most flawed power hitters in free agency, like Tellez. So you end up acquiring guys like BDLC and hoping for the best. Pitching is a different animal: it’s easier to find value in trades and free agency, and if you draft enough higher octane high school arms in the middle rounds you’re going to find a few Bubba Chandlers and Tyler Glasnows.
For me it’s a question of approach and depth. I thought their approach to their rebuild was far superior to ours. They sold guys at peak value and got quality returns. Compare what they got for guys like Mahle and Castillo versus what we got for Musgrove and Taillon. Also like the focus on power hitters. They are fairly deep in quality and possible quality hitters like McClain, Collier, De La Cruz, Fraley, Marte, CES, Arroyo, Sal Stewart, Tyler Stephenson, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer and Rece Hinds that even if half those guys wash out they’ll still be loaded. It’s an embarrassment of riches. Although I’d rather have our pitching, obviously, it’s not like they skimped there either. Greene, Lodolo, Burns and Lowder look like solid arms and they have some interesting back end guys too.
Plus they can always flip that surplus of prospects for a big arm or two. I could see them jumping in for Crochet over the winter.
nice argument!
You too. There isn’t really a right and wrong answer here beyond preference. And we won’t know who was right for years anyways. Remember when the Blue Jays core was going to win all those World Series?
I think Grandal is the first ever of his archetype: pitch-calling and bat-flip specialist.
I love his bat flip. I done that twice, on the golf course, normally drive the ball around 220, on the 2 “club” flip” I drove the short par 4, 300+ on the green and I knew it the moment I made contact. Is a good feeling, especially when so rare!!!!!
I love me a showman.
Right! And if someone says “act like you’ve been there before,” you have the perfect response: I haven’t been here before!
Exactly! 😂
That's the appropriate time, never been there and may not again lol
Also a no doubt game winner.
Those are the shots that keep you coming back. I’ll spray drives all over all day, swear I’m done with the game, then play a couple good holes and I’m back the next weekend.
The way we torture ourselves!
I golfed back in the day when I was spry. Never very good... but anyway... one day... I play the 9-hole round of my life. I'm on the green in 2 at the 9th... 32 strokes to get to that point... 4 under par for the round. Just need a 3-putt to finish a below-par 9 holes.... only need 4 putt to finish at par. I 5-putt the green and finish the round over par somehow. That was sort of the story of golf career.
Drive for show, and putt for dough!
You don't know the worst of it. I was maybe 10 or 12 feet from the cup! It was simple 2 putt and a good golfer would have sunk the first putt at least 40% of the time.
I feel you, what a horrible game that is.
I really want Henry Davis called up Sept 1st to see if he can take his AAA success to the bigs. However, if he’s not, he will end the season very close to 1.000 service time. The team might be able to preserve a year of control by leaving him down. I am also the king of YOC management on potential impact players. Tough call for me.
Was listening to Eno and DVR this morning, they think Yorke's floor could be a 15/15 guy at second base which is no star but certainly valuable. Also, they talked a bit comparing coby mayo and hank as guys that killed AAA but are struggling with fastballs in the majors. Advanced scouting reports early are one thing they noted as well as the ABS in AAA having lowered the top of the zone, so they might be giving up called strikes in that area that they werent seeing in the minors. DVR and Eno agreed that if you have a sample size of 10 guys with an OPS > .900 at AAA then they would confidently expect at least 7 to be big league average or better hitters.
Just thought this was some interesting stuff and wanted to share with yinz
'ppreciate the cliff notes!
One thing I've found super interesting now that we have AAA pitch data is how closely pitch mixes in the league match what guys see in the Majors.
Check out Hank's FG page. Each pitch type within a handful of percentage points between AAA and MLB.
I think if Hank could have a solid September at the big league level, that would be a huge development for next year’s team. Would maybe help him calm the hell down. He looks so amped up every at bat when he’s up with the big team. He goes to right center occasionally at Indy, while he looks like he’s trying to hit everything 110 mph down the left field line for the Bucs. I really think getting a little taste of success would go a long way. Or I could be an idiot and he has holes in his swing I’m too biased to see.
Your last sentence? We all have that affliction!
Nice pickup. The gap between AAA and mlb stuff-wise might be large right now, but good to know that hank is probably seeing a fairly similar mix of pitches as he would up here. Of course execution and actual stuff will be worlds apart
Good stuff Admin
Admin is easily inside the top 5 for quality of posts.
Absolutely agree. Got some smart folks around here
Yinz are too kind! This site makes almost all of my days better getting to shoot the shit with everyone dropping good knowledge and well thought out opinions, so just trying to keep up with everyone else
when are we getting and explainer for your username?
Honestly was a default user i got on another unrelated blog type media some time ago so now something i default to. No clue to be found in the name to the man behind it ;)
haha, nice
Ok, I’m ready for Cook to replace Joe and Yorke to replace either Williams.
I just don't get the logic here...we're toast and carrying 4-5 guys with zero chance of being around next year...most have at least semi-viable replacement candidates worth taking a look at now, not that I'd expect all to succeed, but like, how many more Bae, MAT, Tree, etc. at bats does one possibly need to see?
“Replace” should be the dominant theme the rest of the year.
Should replace Triolo with Peguero, too. I don’t expect much from Peguero, but it’s conclusively established now that Triolo can’t hit.
I actually think sending Triolo down to Indy and giving him playing time at short and all 3 outfield spots. It would be beneficial to the team and him for his long-term viability as a 26th man. If he can play anywhere other than pitcher or catcher, being versatile defensively and an added pinch runner seems like his best chance to be a long-term piece.
Agree the guy can have value as the 26th guy on an offensively solid roster. Unfortunately, half our lineup is an offensive wasteland ATM.
Yep, Triolo has had an opportunity this year, it's close to the time to see if anything clicks with Peguero, Yorke, Cook and Davis. Nick Gonzales will be back soon as well. It'd be nice if a couple could be average to a little above average regulars, make the shopping list a little shorter in the off-season.
Or Bae.
Happy to send bae as far away from this org as possible
A nice day to to be a Pirate fan. Paul Skenes has that effect when he is throwing like he was last night, and getting an offensive lift from BDLC and Grandal give hope that the Pirates could possibly get near the .500 mark this year. And at AAA, two of our many MI prospects go yard, and Bubba Chandler finds a way to get it done even when probably not at his best.