Friendly reminder that Oneil Cruz boosted his production from 75 wRC+ to 108 wRC+ along the same period as his swing rate *declined* by 5% including a zone rate decline of nearly the same scale.
Also, Roansy should be a warning sign IRT Jared Jones. If Roansy is now an OK reliever we wasted some of his prime trying to get an extra year of service. Smaller framed starters worry me.
I understand why teams want to monitor innings and also understand the business side of service time. I also know there is a mental side of the game which is often overlooked in making these decisions for young ball players. Roansy last start in 2022 before the all-star break was 6 innings 4 hits, 1 walk, 1 run win at Cincinnati. He didn't get in another MLB game in over 40 days and he wasn't even hurt. Excluding one bad outing, his ERA in over 48 innings up to that point was a 2.61. We can talk mechanics all we want with Roansy, but he looks mentally shot. Not the same guy at all.
We wrung our hands about Mitch and this mental mumbo jumbo for years and then coincidentally that "problem" was completely solved at the exact same time as they taught him a filthy sweeper that allowed his fastballs to play up.
You either didn't understand or just ignored the point of the post. 1) Roansy was on a roll and a confident pitcher before they sent him down. 2) If you think there is not a mental part of how young men perform, watch the NCAA tournament this week. Many of those guys are the same age or older than Roansy was last year.
I both understood your point and directly acknowledged that I believe it's bullshit.
Charlie Morton was a "headcase", Gerrit Cole couldn't control his anger, Mitch Keller didn't have "grit" and lacked confidence.
Bullshit, bullshit, and again bullshit.
Of course there's a mental side to sports, but us - namesless guys on the internet who watch games on tv - have absolutely zero basis in projecting such issues onto players.
Roansy Contreras had a 3.78 ERA against a 4.89 FIP in the first half of 2022. Absolutely nothing about how he was handled caused his absurd strand rate of 80% to fall toward average in the second half, which, by the way, came in at a...3.80 ERA.
His arc since the first half of 2022 is precisely what should be predicted for a 2-pitch starter who never had to show he could hold velo across a full season workload. Improved command and a starter's repertoire solve every perceived problem of handling and mentality.
As far as Mitch Keller's improvement, it has nothing to do with the sweeper. It is because he became best friends with David Bednar who taught Keller how to be mentally tough. :)
That post got me laughing. It sounds like this has been buiding up for a long time. I didn't say anything about Morton, Cole or Keller. I was just trying to point out there is a mental side to the game that is often overlooked. I used Roansy for an example becuase it is not normal for one of your starting five to be taken out of the rotation after a good six inning start. I think your do a good job of analyzing charts and finding strengths and weaknesses of a pitcher's game or a hitter's at bats., and I do respect that. If you are saying he needs another pitch to be successful, I'm going to believe you. If you say he has a lack of command, I am guessing that is also related to the mental side of the game.
I am too. With the current make-up of the SP, I'm not optimistic that we get a lot of wins, but hoping to see some offense. Sure is fun watching these guys hammer the ball.
If he stays healthy, which is a condition for everyone, Cruz is going to be a super star. The Pirates need to sign him for the next 10 years and not allow someone else to benefit. I've heard he's asking for too much, whatever that means, but this is the time to do it. A player like him draws fans to the ball park enough to pay for himself over the long haul anyway so it'll be a great investment. This kid is unique or at least I've never seen anyone like him before, and he's just getting started. I never want to see him in a Dodger or Yankee uniform.
That’s all relative. Spending $105 million to buy a guys decline years and wasting $30-$40 million on waiver claim quality free agents is a choice. A choice that makes Cruz seem out of their price range.
Not trying to be boastful, but he reminds me a lot of me as a younger person. Just a hair taller than my 5'8" stud-like frame and a little darker complexion. He does have better hair, so there's that.
The amount of stuff I’ve gotten done around the house this morning is impressive without the mindset ‘I have to be done at 1230 to get ready for the game’ lol
A caution to anybody planning to go to MiL exhibitions at PC. Their xerox schedule says most games are at 1pm, with some TBD. They're not paying any attention to the times. That's especially true when the opponent is the O's, which is almost all the games. They can start any time between 10am and 1pm, and there's no way to find out except going out there.
I am so guilty of getting pumped when one of the key players has a great ST. Convincing myself he’s going to far exceed stupid Zips predictions. While simultaneously telling myself it’s only ST and stats don’t matter when another key player is not hitting well.
ST is a many edged sword. Older returning veteran's who are guaranteed a spot are going to worry more about their health then their stats, younger returning veterans are concerned a little about both and the returning utility types, NRI guys and prospects are and rightfully so are very concerned about spring stats, lol.
All true on the occasional ST mirage, but I feel like you’d have to be either extremely scarred from past experiences, or possibly clinically dead, to not be at least a little excited anyway.
After years of mid-pack at best, and usually bottom of the barrel, team home runs…there are at least signs that the team has multiple hitters that can legitimately hurt the ball. And after years of zero SP depth or quality, there are signs of a deepening pool of legit arms.
The problem, as I see it, with the position players is that the Pirates are a "store-front-window" team. There is no depth at the upper levels of the minors to come in to replace any injuries at almost every position, except maybe C. They will have 8 guys in their lineup who are MLB players and some of these guys are actually good. That is certainly an improvement over Cherington's first 4 years, but after these 8, there is very little, except maybe Peguero, who needs time in AAA.
The pitching will be somewhere between passable and awful for the first half of the season with the possibility that it will improve in the second half when Brubaker comes back and guys like Jones and maybe Skenes move up to the majors.
This looks like a team that could finish around 78-84, a 6-win improvement on last season , given that the season goes along without season-ending injuries to guys like Cruz, Keller, Hayes, or Suwinski. With some good luck and everything falling into place, they might make the playoffs. I give them about a 10% chance of doing so, which is 9.99% better than at any point in Cherington's first 4 years... so things are looking up.
There are 29 other teams with this problem and that is precisely why it is legal - and encouraged! - to acquire better players *outside* of your organization.
Except that other teams have position-player prospects at the upper levels of the system. The Pirates' prospects in the upper levels are all pitchers, whom they are counting on to fill out a rotation that Cherington failed to fill out in the off-season. What depth they have is needed to fill out the holes that now exist in the roster, not the holes that injuries create. This is what will hold them back from making a serious run at the division this year... depth.
So.. you're saying that it is OK to sign established quality veterans to multi-year deals and trade prospects to fill holes on the roster and in the system, even if it is trading prospects for other prospects? I just don't follow.
I remember when I thought the ultimate prize at a ball game was getting a foul ball. I was pretty upset when MLB required extra netting at games. Now at 63 and every one on cell phones, I am glad also.
David Matoma 'bout to be the GUY Carlos Jiminez was inflated to be.
Friendly reminder that Oneil Cruz boosted his production from 75 wRC+ to 108 wRC+ along the same period as his swing rate *declined* by 5% including a zone rate decline of nearly the same scale.
Three cheers for Andy Haines!
Anyone @ PC...Wilbur?
Buddy of mine is down there saying Skenes is mowing down the O's in an exhibition game. Sent a couple videos from real up close.
Happy First Day of Spring.
I had snow and 27 degrees on my way in this morning.
LGB
Perez really hides the ball well.
Also, Roansy should be a warning sign IRT Jared Jones. If Roansy is now an OK reliever we wasted some of his prime trying to get an extra year of service. Smaller framed starters worry me.
I understand why teams want to monitor innings and also understand the business side of service time. I also know there is a mental side of the game which is often overlooked in making these decisions for young ball players. Roansy last start in 2022 before the all-star break was 6 innings 4 hits, 1 walk, 1 run win at Cincinnati. He didn't get in another MLB game in over 40 days and he wasn't even hurt. Excluding one bad outing, his ERA in over 48 innings up to that point was a 2.61. We can talk mechanics all we want with Roansy, but he looks mentally shot. Not the same guy at all.
We wrung our hands about Mitch and this mental mumbo jumbo for years and then coincidentally that "problem" was completely solved at the exact same time as they taught him a filthy sweeper that allowed his fastballs to play up.
THIS is the lesson to follow.
It *is* a matter of development with Roansy.
You either didn't understand or just ignored the point of the post. 1) Roansy was on a roll and a confident pitcher before they sent him down. 2) If you think there is not a mental part of how young men perform, watch the NCAA tournament this week. Many of those guys are the same age or older than Roansy was last year.
I both understood your point and directly acknowledged that I believe it's bullshit.
Charlie Morton was a "headcase", Gerrit Cole couldn't control his anger, Mitch Keller didn't have "grit" and lacked confidence.
Bullshit, bullshit, and again bullshit.
Of course there's a mental side to sports, but us - namesless guys on the internet who watch games on tv - have absolutely zero basis in projecting such issues onto players.
Roansy Contreras had a 3.78 ERA against a 4.89 FIP in the first half of 2022. Absolutely nothing about how he was handled caused his absurd strand rate of 80% to fall toward average in the second half, which, by the way, came in at a...3.80 ERA.
His arc since the first half of 2022 is precisely what should be predicted for a 2-pitch starter who never had to show he could hold velo across a full season workload. Improved command and a starter's repertoire solve every perceived problem of handling and mentality.
As far as Mitch Keller's improvement, it has nothing to do with the sweeper. It is because he became best friends with David Bednar who taught Keller how to be mentally tough. :)
That post got me laughing. It sounds like this has been buiding up for a long time. I didn't say anything about Morton, Cole or Keller. I was just trying to point out there is a mental side to the game that is often overlooked. I used Roansy for an example becuase it is not normal for one of your starting five to be taken out of the rotation after a good six inning start. I think your do a good job of analyzing charts and finding strengths and weaknesses of a pitcher's game or a hitter's at bats., and I do respect that. If you are saying he needs another pitch to be successful, I'm going to believe you. If you say he has a lack of command, I am guessing that is also related to the mental side of the game.
I'm gonna keep dreaming on JJ. Ro has never thrown a 100 MPH FB.
I am excited for baseball
I am too. With the current make-up of the SP, I'm not optimistic that we get a lot of wins, but hoping to see some offense. Sure is fun watching these guys hammer the ball.
Make it 3 with me.
Cruz is the Pirates version of Ohtani...he is a beast...
If he stays healthy, which is a condition for everyone, Cruz is going to be a super star. The Pirates need to sign him for the next 10 years and not allow someone else to benefit. I've heard he's asking for too much, whatever that means, but this is the time to do it. A player like him draws fans to the ball park enough to pay for himself over the long haul anyway so it'll be a great investment. This kid is unique or at least I've never seen anyone like him before, and he's just getting started. I never want to see him in a Dodger or Yankee uniform.
“Asking for too much.”
That’s all relative. Spending $105 million to buy a guys decline years and wasting $30-$40 million on waiver claim quality free agents is a choice. A choice that makes Cruz seem out of their price range.
I said a few times the time to do it was when he was hurt.
or after the motor cycle accident
I would hope they would try to model an extension in the Hayes contract. Say a front loaded 6 or 7 year deal with an option or 2.
If they wait through this season it will be modeled on Tatis. They needed to already do it while he was hurt. That was the moment.
I should have scrolled down before I posted what you had alreadly said.
That s/b their priority for 2024 offseason...long term...
Not trying to be boastful, but he reminds me a lot of me as a younger person. Just a hair taller than my 5'8" stud-like frame and a little darker complexion. He does have better hair, so there's that.
So you all are an example of human cloning success?
You pretty much described him, the only difference is that you are a RH hitter.
🤣
No Pirates today?!?! The hell am I supposed to do with the middle 3 hrs of my day?
The amount of stuff I’ve gotten done around the house this morning is impressive without the mindset ‘I have to be done at 1230 to get ready for the game’ lol
My boss would probably say work, but we all know that's not going to happen
I guess I’ll just go to Pirate City. 😂
A caution to anybody planning to go to MiL exhibitions at PC. Their xerox schedule says most games are at 1pm, with some TBD. They're not paying any attention to the times. That's especially true when the opponent is the O's, which is almost all the games. They can start any time between 10am and 1pm, and there's no way to find out except going out there.
So, what you're saying is, I should shoot for noon and hope for the best? lol
Man, my trip to Bradenton ended too soon. Love Pirate City.
I got one week!
Lets this be Cruz from now on.
I am so guilty of getting pumped when one of the key players has a great ST. Convincing myself he’s going to far exceed stupid Zips predictions. While simultaneously telling myself it’s only ST and stats don’t matter when another key player is not hitting well.
Hope Springs Eternal!
ST is a many edged sword. Older returning veteran's who are guaranteed a spot are going to worry more about their health then their stats, younger returning veterans are concerned a little about both and the returning utility types, NRI guys and prospects are and rightfully so are very concerned about spring stats, lol.
Exactly!
All true on the occasional ST mirage, but I feel like you’d have to be either extremely scarred from past experiences, or possibly clinically dead, to not be at least a little excited anyway.
After years of mid-pack at best, and usually bottom of the barrel, team home runs…there are at least signs that the team has multiple hitters that can legitimately hurt the ball. And after years of zero SP depth or quality, there are signs of a deepening pool of legit arms.
The problem, as I see it, with the position players is that the Pirates are a "store-front-window" team. There is no depth at the upper levels of the minors to come in to replace any injuries at almost every position, except maybe C. They will have 8 guys in their lineup who are MLB players and some of these guys are actually good. That is certainly an improvement over Cherington's first 4 years, but after these 8, there is very little, except maybe Peguero, who needs time in AAA.
The pitching will be somewhere between passable and awful for the first half of the season with the possibility that it will improve in the second half when Brubaker comes back and guys like Jones and maybe Skenes move up to the majors.
This looks like a team that could finish around 78-84, a 6-win improvement on last season , given that the season goes along without season-ending injuries to guys like Cruz, Keller, Hayes, or Suwinski. With some good luck and everything falling into place, they might make the playoffs. I give them about a 10% chance of doing so, which is 9.99% better than at any point in Cherington's first 4 years... so things are looking up.
*jumps on soapbox*
There are 29 other teams with this problem and that is precisely why it is legal - and encouraged! - to acquire better players *outside* of your organization.
Except that other teams have position-player prospects at the upper levels of the system. The Pirates' prospects in the upper levels are all pitchers, whom they are counting on to fill out a rotation that Cherington failed to fill out in the off-season. What depth they have is needed to fill out the holes that now exist in the roster, not the holes that injuries create. This is what will hold them back from making a serious run at the division this year... depth.
You're failing to make the connection...
So.. you're saying that it is OK to sign established quality veterans to multi-year deals and trade prospects to fill holes on the roster and in the system, even if it is trading prospects for other prospects? I just don't follow.
Team should hit so many homeruns this year! Just hopefully everything else falls in line
Pitching Pitching Pitching...
I am Groot.
It's a little morbid to think, but Cruz might kill someone with velocities like that.
Am glad for the increased netting around PNC park for guys just like him in the box
I remember when I thought the ultimate prize at a ball game was getting a foul ball. I was pretty upset when MLB required extra netting at games. Now at 63 and every one on cell phones, I am glad also.
Definitely do miss that aspect but I agree that so many fans arent paying enough attention and its just injury waiting to happen
Or take off someone's arm. "It's just a flesh wound!"