MLBTR has a mailbag question re: the cost of Skenes' arb years and whether notoriously cheap Nutting pays or trades. Since I share that trait and don't pay for MLBTR front office (I wonder if Nutting does?), can anyone with access summarize?
Corbin Burnes won the NL Cy Young award in 2021 and was paid $6.55MM in 2022, $10.01MM in '23 (after losing a hearing to the Brewers), and $15,637,500 in '24.
A healthy Skenes should be able to top Burnes' $32.2MM in total arbitration earnings, but even $45MM for that three-year period might represent a single season of what he could earn in free agency.
To me the last sentence is exactly why IMHO there is no chance he would sign away any of his free agent years along with the name Stephen Strasburg. If Strasburg gets injured one year earlier he would have missed out on the huge pay day. If Skenes pitches to even 90% of our hopes there will be a bidding war of the major market clubs. Forget Nutting, the mid to small markets will not be in on that bidding war unless there are major changes in the next collective bargaining agreement (I am not optimistic). Best case scenario is Skenes and Pirates can agree on his earning from now and through his arbitration years and spread that over all those years vs. having a steep climb at the end.
Good reasoning, but with the example you use of Strasburg it could be in Skenes personal interest to sign a reasonable 7 year deal. Let's assume Skenes shatters Burnes arbitration numbers by nearly double ($60 million). If the pirates offered a 7 year deal between $120 - $150 million spread out like you mentioned for his arb years it would be hard to for Skenes to turn down. The 2 free agent years would be between $30 and $45 million a year with the hedge against injury.
Very valid points. I have settled in pretty strong on my opinion which I guess increases the odds of it being wrong (ha). I guess I see him making money on and off the field (reducing the risk some) and delaying the 7 year with opt outs for mega money (knowing there are risks in waiting) will carry the day.. unfortunately for us.
I think a deal would have to be spread out or front loaded to an extent for Skenes to sign it. Otherwise he would probably just wait for the mega bidding war to begin.
So so far I have Borucki and Trainer making the 26 and Stewart with a chance to join them. Delay, Peguero will get released and Nicolas and Yorke will start out in AAA.
I'm not convinced on Borucki. I'd like another lefty in the pen, but his success two years ago was built on an unsustainable BABIP, and an otherworldly low walk rate. I don't think he is on the 40 right now, although I'm sure he can opt out at some point is he thinks there is a major league job waiting for him.
Can I officially get excited about Cruz yet? I don’t know if it’s Pham being in his ear every day. I don’t know if he’s pissed hearing Elly DelaCruz is better than him. Whatever the reason, he’s got me dreaming about being an MVP candidate in 2025.
Still barely at 1000 PA, that's a toddler in big league terms! I think you're much closer to being correct than not; I can't think of a good logical reason that a little maturation and experience won't lead to smoothing of that 36% k-rate on the road.
Sure can. It may just be as simple as he needed a longer development track in the bigs and losing 2023 bled into a slow first half in 2024. I normally think Tennessee Mel is overly optimistic, but I agree with much of what he’s said here.
I think he has bought into whatever Coach Tarrik Brock is telling him, at least from the fielding side. I have seen them talk on multiple occasions and have seen Cruz approach Brock first. I am not expecting an MVP, but I am expecting Cruz to get better.
His splits last year after losing all but 9 games in 2023 are telling -
1st Half - 246/299/439/738 OPS, 7/8 SB, 24 BB/112 K, 32 EBH in 85 G
2nd Half- 277/357/464/821 OPS, 15/15 SB, 27 BB/69 K, 26 EBH in 61 G
In the second half he had an 83 point jump in OPS, 3 more Walks/43 fewer K's, twice as many SB's, and almost the same number of EBH in 24 less games. So far in ST he shows a lot of patience at the plate and better selection of pitches to hit, while taking the walks that are being offered. Should somebody be talking to him about an extension - even if it is only for 2 years. He has 2.110 years of MLB Service, and will play all of 2025 as a 26 year old, I think.
That second half is even more impressive given that he was learning a new position. And yes, with a Skenes extension probably unrealistic* under Nutting, Cruz should be their priority in getting an extension done.
*I still think adding $90-100MM to his expected earnings from arbitration to buy out two years of free agency should be doable, but I've never been so down on Nutting as I am now.
I was thinking when Cruz thinks he screws up, he gets pretty emotional and it snowballs into more mistakes. Maybe moving him off short actually has him relaxed and playing better. Who knows.
I agree that long-term playing CF will help, including this year. Last year, though, the disappointment of moving off of SS and the (sometimes literally) crash course on playing CF had to have impacted his focus.
OTOH, I remember him crediting one of his big games last season to being angry after an early mistake (I forget if it was an error or baserunning mistake), so maybe being initially angry about the move contributed in a positive way.
In any case, it's been great to see him come to camp with a positive mindset after a good offseason.
This was long my "pro" argument for moving him off short. It's extremely hard to care about your performance AND be able to compartmentalize enough to leave one aspect of the game separate from the other.
Being put in a position to make 20-30 errors a year, I'm sorry, I just do not believe there's no effect on offense. He's human!
I would sweeten it with a signing bonus of $8 mil (2 per year), then $3 mil, $6 mil, $10 mil, and $15$ mil for the 4 remaining years, then $20 mil and $25 mil for the 2 additional years. Comes to $79 in salary and the $8 mil bonus.
Watching Cruz take some batting practice a few weeks ago had some of us laughing. Just by looking at him and his swing, some of these hits looked like they would barely make it to the outfield.... then the ball would travel over the fence. I don't know if I explained that correctly, but I have seriously never seen anything like that.
The kid is just naturally and unbelievably strong. Listed at 6'7" and 220 and the arms, legs, and trunk are all in sync when he is seeing it right, and has the rhythm and timing working together. Thank you Tony Watson. And thanks to the Dodgers for desperately needing a LHRP to help them get to the playoffs and ultimately the World Series that year.
If it's his lat, good news that it's not arm trouble for Oviedo. I was at the game when Hunter got hurt. It looked pretty bad. Glad to see he's back throwing. Also glad to see Moreta progressing . Love his personality. Dude can help this team.
Agree. The BP will get a boost from Moreta and Stratton. I think we got Moreta from Cincy for Kevin Newman in 2023 and he put up some VG numbers for the Pirates in the BP 55 appearances, 58 IP, 3.72 ERA, 24 BB/76 K (10.0%/31.8%). 2.104 Years MLB Service, so still 4 years of control.
It's ominous that Oviedo is going back to the doctor who did the TJ surgery, with the concern being that the injury to the lat came from compensating for an elbow that wasn't fully fixed.
I hope I'm reading too much into that return visit.
I don't get the re-imaging the arm, then, but it could be due to "an abundance of caution". Or just standard procedure for any injury to the lat. From the PG:
“The recommendation right now is to re-image the arm, the lat in four weeks time,” Tomczyk said."
Depending upon how Horwitz looks that first week of swings could tell us how long it might be before full contact game swings. With being a first year player and going to another ballclub, he has enough on him already.
MLBTR has a mailbag question re: the cost of Skenes' arb years and whether notoriously cheap Nutting pays or trades. Since I share that trait and don't pay for MLBTR front office (I wonder if Nutting does?), can anyone with access summarize?
Tyvm.
Found this interesting.
Corbin Burnes won the NL Cy Young award in 2021 and was paid $6.55MM in 2022, $10.01MM in '23 (after losing a hearing to the Brewers), and $15,637,500 in '24.
A healthy Skenes should be able to top Burnes' $32.2MM in total arbitration earnings, but even $45MM for that three-year period might represent a single season of what he could earn in free agency.
To me the last sentence is exactly why IMHO there is no chance he would sign away any of his free agent years along with the name Stephen Strasburg. If Strasburg gets injured one year earlier he would have missed out on the huge pay day. If Skenes pitches to even 90% of our hopes there will be a bidding war of the major market clubs. Forget Nutting, the mid to small markets will not be in on that bidding war unless there are major changes in the next collective bargaining agreement (I am not optimistic). Best case scenario is Skenes and Pirates can agree on his earning from now and through his arbitration years and spread that over all those years vs. having a steep climb at the end.
Good reasoning, but with the example you use of Strasburg it could be in Skenes personal interest to sign a reasonable 7 year deal. Let's assume Skenes shatters Burnes arbitration numbers by nearly double ($60 million). If the pirates offered a 7 year deal between $120 - $150 million spread out like you mentioned for his arb years it would be hard to for Skenes to turn down. The 2 free agent years would be between $30 and $45 million a year with the hedge against injury.
Very valid points. I have settled in pretty strong on my opinion which I guess increases the odds of it being wrong (ha). I guess I see him making money on and off the field (reducing the risk some) and delaying the 7 year with opt outs for mega money (knowing there are risks in waiting) will carry the day.. unfortunately for us.
I think a deal would have to be spread out or front loaded to an extent for Skenes to sign it. Otherwise he would probably just wait for the mega bidding war to begin.
Nutting is about the shock the haterz in three weeks and sign Skenes to a seven year deal, thanks to sheetz
BOBBY.
So so far I have Borucki and Trainer making the 26 and Stewart with a chance to join them. Delay, Peguero will get released and Nicolas and Yorke will start out in AAA.
They have Pie Traynor?
You rang?
Who can?
AMERI-CAN!
(Did I just show my age?????)
Pie never counts against roster limits, unless it’s rhubarb.
That would also require Strzelecki and Wentz to be DFAd.
I'm not convinced on Borucki. I'd like another lefty in the pen, but his success two years ago was built on an unsustainable BABIP, and an otherworldly low walk rate. I don't think he is on the 40 right now, although I'm sure he can opt out at some point is he thinks there is a major league job waiting for him.
I´d rather have Borucki than Lawrence
Also Wetnz gets the nod over Falter with Mlodzinski and Ferguson sharing starting pitcher duties
Can I officially get excited about Cruz yet? I don’t know if it’s Pham being in his ear every day. I don’t know if he’s pissed hearing Elly DelaCruz is better than him. Whatever the reason, he’s got me dreaming about being an MVP candidate in 2025.
One weird Cruz split I haven't heard people talk about is that he sucks on the road.
Career 130 wRC+ hitter at PNC and 80 wRC+ hitter on the road.
26% K at PNC, 36% (!!!) everywhere else.
BABIP and ISO? Yup, better at home than away.
That's the objective evidence needed to get Oneil to sign an extension.
If you listen closely it's clear they have fans planted in the bleachers yelling Ric Flair "woos" to tip him off on breaking balls.
Ashley Schaeffer BMW...Woo
That is very significant. Did not realize that.
chalk it up to baseball randomness...i think?
I am just going to pretend his home numbers is who he is. And we need him sleeping better, eating better or something different on the road. :)
Seriously, the sample is probably too big to be strictly randomness. It will be interesting to see how it plays out this year.
Still barely at 1000 PA, that's a toddler in big league terms! I think you're much closer to being correct than not; I can't think of a good logical reason that a little maturation and experience won't lead to smoothing of that 36% k-rate on the road.
Yes. You can get excited. He's growing up before our eyes. He will be a monster. Well, a good monster.
Sure can. It may just be as simple as he needed a longer development track in the bigs and losing 2023 bled into a slow first half in 2024. I normally think Tennessee Mel is overly optimistic, but I agree with much of what he’s said here.
My frustration with the Pirates leads to being overly optimistic at even the slightest of improvements.
I think he has bought into whatever Coach Tarrik Brock is telling him, at least from the fielding side. I have seen them talk on multiple occasions and have seen Cruz approach Brock first. I am not expecting an MVP, but I am expecting Cruz to get better.
His splits last year after losing all but 9 games in 2023 are telling -
1st Half - 246/299/439/738 OPS, 7/8 SB, 24 BB/112 K, 32 EBH in 85 G
2nd Half- 277/357/464/821 OPS, 15/15 SB, 27 BB/69 K, 26 EBH in 61 G
In the second half he had an 83 point jump in OPS, 3 more Walks/43 fewer K's, twice as many SB's, and almost the same number of EBH in 24 less games. So far in ST he shows a lot of patience at the plate and better selection of pitches to hit, while taking the walks that are being offered. Should somebody be talking to him about an extension - even if it is only for 2 years. He has 2.110 years of MLB Service, and will play all of 2025 as a 26 year old, I think.
That second half is even more impressive given that he was learning a new position. And yes, with a Skenes extension probably unrealistic* under Nutting, Cruz should be their priority in getting an extension done.
*I still think adding $90-100MM to his expected earnings from arbitration to buy out two years of free agency should be doable, but I've never been so down on Nutting as I am now.
I was thinking when Cruz thinks he screws up, he gets pretty emotional and it snowballs into more mistakes. Maybe moving him off short actually has him relaxed and playing better. Who knows.
I agree that long-term playing CF will help, including this year. Last year, though, the disappointment of moving off of SS and the (sometimes literally) crash course on playing CF had to have impacted his focus.
OTOH, I remember him crediting one of his big games last season to being angry after an early mistake (I forget if it was an error or baserunning mistake), so maybe being initially angry about the move contributed in a positive way.
In any case, it's been great to see him come to camp with a positive mindset after a good offseason.
This was long my "pro" argument for moving him off short. It's extremely hard to care about your performance AND be able to compartmentalize enough to leave one aspect of the game separate from the other.
Being put in a position to make 20-30 errors a year, I'm sorry, I just do not believe there's no effect on offense. He's human!
I would sweeten it with a signing bonus of $8 mil (2 per year), then $3 mil, $6 mil, $10 mil, and $15$ mil for the 4 remaining years, then $20 mil and $25 mil for the 2 additional years. Comes to $79 in salary and the $8 mil bonus.
Wow...112 K's in the first half.....yeesh....
Thanks for putting this together!
That was a majestic HR yesterday. I watched the replay last night on SNP.
Of course Skenes is pitching tonight, and this is the only game this week that isn't televised on SNP.
Watching Cruz take some batting practice a few weeks ago had some of us laughing. Just by looking at him and his swing, some of these hits looked like they would barely make it to the outfield.... then the ball would travel over the fence. I don't know if I explained that correctly, but I have seriously never seen anything like that.
The kid is just naturally and unbelievably strong. Listed at 6'7" and 220 and the arms, legs, and trunk are all in sync when he is seeing it right, and has the rhythm and timing working together. Thank you Tony Watson. And thanks to the Dodgers for desperately needing a LHRP to help them get to the playoffs and ultimately the World Series that year.
If it's his lat, good news that it's not arm trouble for Oviedo. I was at the game when Hunter got hurt. It looked pretty bad. Glad to see he's back throwing. Also glad to see Moreta progressing . Love his personality. Dude can help this team.
Hey, I was at that game too!
I was there too, all the way from Illinois. We should have all three met up for a cool one.
Agree. The BP will get a boost from Moreta and Stratton. I think we got Moreta from Cincy for Kevin Newman in 2023 and he put up some VG numbers for the Pirates in the BP 55 appearances, 58 IP, 3.72 ERA, 24 BB/76 K (10.0%/31.8%). 2.104 Years MLB Service, so still 4 years of control.
It's ominous that Oviedo is going back to the doctor who did the TJ surgery, with the concern being that the injury to the lat came from compensating for an elbow that wasn't fully fixed.
I hope I'm reading too much into that return visit.
They said the elbow is sound.
I don't get the re-imaging the arm, then, but it could be due to "an abundance of caution". Or just standard procedure for any injury to the lat. From the PG:
“The recommendation right now is to re-image the arm, the lat in four weeks time,” Tomczyk said."
SOP
You left out the best news of all, Horowitz will be hitting baseballs very soon.
Depending upon how Horwitz looks that first week of swings could tell us how long it might be before full contact game swings. With being a first year player and going to another ballclub, he has enough on him already.