Teenage girl and mom came into the library I work at earlier. Randomly are Pirate fans despite living in South Carolina. Tell the girl hopefully one day she has her own Cueto moment. Let's hope we all have another of those ourselves.
At least during some of those years they had a group of guys like Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth then Juan Soto, etc. We had Cutch and then Marte and then Reynolds and nobody else. Point being, all the top picks were bad but at least the Nats managed to have a few good players every year in spite of it. Pirates never had more than one in any given year.
This is a huge reason for Rizzo’s recent firing. He was a genius at trades, but horrible at drafting. And when the Lerners cut off the funding for free agents, the organization plummeted to Pirate levels.
BA's latest mock has the pirates taking Hernandez. what's interesting is they said the pirates are more tied to high school players. law and MLB.com dudes are saying the pirates are more tied to college players. so it'll be interesting to see who's right (hopefully BA)
My guess is Jamie Arnold. I think they want 2 lefties in the rotation at all times. Barco will more than likely replace Heany & Arnold could eventually replace Falter.
Never pick out of need, but this is just my gut feel.
What about Jace LaViolette as a signability pick. Slid because he was playing through injury but was a top 3 guy heading into this season and put up a heroic effort against LSU during the tournament (3 dinger game while injured).
"LaViolette enters his draft spring as a career .297/.433/.683 hitter with 50 homers in two seasons at A&M. He has enormous left-handed power and controls the zone. He has a fair amount of swing-and-miss (24% K% in 2024), but it's not so bad as to create scary bust risk. LaViolette's swing and approach are geared for power; he had a 23 degree average launch in 2024. He's strong enough to leave the yard from pole to pole, but most of his damage is done to the pull side. LaViolette has a low ball proclivity, and he can struggle with fastballs up and away from him, but his thump is weaponized enough by his swing plane for him to get to power even if he's striking out a lot. LaViolette also has a sneaky shot to stay in center field. He has spent time in center and right, and he looks comfortable going back on balls over his head, but his size might be a prohibitive factor as he matures and fills out. LaViolette has a star-level power-hitting center fielder ceiling" (he hit. 258 .427 .576 this year so definitely didn't have his best season)
The power would be super interesting but Baseball America had an article that broke down all the college hitters that were drafted in the first round that didn't have a .300 average their draft season.
AM - there's college hitters and then there are SEC college hitters who have to face First Round caliber pitchers every weekend of the SEC season. There will be 4 SEC Pitchers who will be drafted before LaViolette, and the first picks could be No. 1 and No. 2 with Anderson of LSU and Doyle of TN. Last year the SEC also had 4 Pitchers go in the 1st Round.
Hitters can lose confidence, and before they find the answers, they could drop well below a 24% K rate in the SEC. If there is a question, go with the kid with the best Character - he'll show up and out-work the others, and from this point on, that is the most important aspect of playing this game professionally
Was he hurt all year? Cause he hit poorly for most of it. Even with that, the dude has some pretty big red flags.
I’m not a prep arm guy, but I’d much rather take Hernandez over Jace at 1-6.
From BP’s draft profile of Jace (at 29 on their top 50).
“Laviolette’s 80% in zone contact rate was significantly below the D-1 average, and he was particularly dominated by same-side slow stuff. Everyone hits the ball less hard transferring to wood bats, even the Jac Caglianones of the world and Laviolette has simply not put up that kind of hard hit data or made anywhere near as much in-zone contact as Caglianone did at Florida. At the end of the day, Laviolette hit .258 this year and we can’t say his swing level data suggests he was terribly unlucky. For all his immense power and athletic traits, it is exceedingly uncommon for players with that troubling a current hit tool in the college environment to turn into good major league players.”
No he wasn't. He had a slow start as SEC teams found a hole in his game (sliders) he had to adjust back on. He seems to have some but it ended in a down year. It's definitely a risk. Still, he was _the guy_ headed into this season.
He was in SEC. Lots of MLB quality pitching. We've seen 20+ k rate guys get drafted high and do ok as long as they're from good conferences with good competition.
I think the problem with signability with the first pick is our next selection isn't until 50. Im not sure if we can reliably float someone down that far. If there's 10+ options for overslot guys that are worth it, then Im all in. I'm certainly not opposed after reading more about this cat - in fact im rather impressed- but im just not sure how we can maximize that later in the draft
Arquette profiles as a very ok big league player, right? My impression is no star potential, meh defender and the bat is his "carrying" skill but it's not even going to be plus. Is that about right?
As I posted the other day, according to Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, the downside risk with Arquette is that he moves to third base and doesn’t generate more than 20 HR power. The best case scenario is that he stays at short and hits 30-35 HRs per year.
The downside is Jeff King redux, which I don’t think is good enough for pick 6. And given the Pirates’ abysmal record with developing hitters, I don’t have much confidence that Arquette will reach his ceiling with the Pirates.
And speaking of King the Pirates took him #1 overall in 1986, and passed on Matt Williams and Gary Sheffield, not to mention Greg Swindell, Kevin Brown, and Kent Mercker. That’s your top six and the Pirates took arguably the worst player of the six. Not good.
I don't love taking a HS RHSP. Every year there's debate over a guy or two and whether he's worth it more than guys like Dylan Bundy and just last year we finally saw Hunter Greene start to figure it out 7 years after being drafted no 2. List littered with Noble Meyers, Jackson Jobes, Tyler Koleks, and every year we hear a few scouts say "no no, this guy is safer because his secondaries are a little more advanced" or whatever. Especially this year, take the best hitter with the most upside.
moved onto the Rays development list after four appearances as a reliever in high-A this year. has never been able to get the ball close enough to the plate to be viable.
That is one of the great what ifs: if they had taken Machado, would the 2013-2015 teams gotten to the top? He made the majors in 2012 at age 19 and was a 5.7 bWAR player in 2013.
It will come down to how desperate bc is to save his job. Take a college bat that may come up faster or roll the dice on an 18 yr old.....This draft is heavy on high potential HS shortstop. Some real nice college arms that could go thru the system fast. Not necessarily a need but you never have enough pitching and the only way they can get a bat is to trade pitching for one.
That is really interesting. It’s rare to see that wide a divergence among the experts. I lean towards BA being right given the new scouting director (as of 2024) and the smashing success of the Griffin pick.
I think it speaks to the quality of this draft, especially the HS SS class. Rare to get more than a good one, maybe two, out of any draft so having this many all sort of jumbled together turns it into a crapshoot.
This is the kind of draft where scouting directors really make their money. The Nats got spoiled getting Strasburg and Harper back to back with the #1 overall pick. Not so easy this year, even at 1 overall.
This is the kind of draft where the best player could easily turn out to be taken at pick 20 or 25. Very challenging.
Josh Owens seems like this year's Jackson Merrill. He might not make it to pick 50. He has the right tools to be a big riser when he fills out (it's already started).
I’m a bit skeptical because he’s primarily fastball/change. Makes me wonder how good the breaking ball is. But don’t listen to me, I’m wrong about everyone!
The Pirates have their own group of Top Position Players congregating at the A+ Level of the Minors in Greensboro. They are young and playing very well - at present they have Konnor Griffin 19, Will Taylor 22, Javier Rivas 23, Lonnie White, Jr 22, Shalin Polanco 21, and Axiel Plaz 20.
In the next week or so I hope they will be promoting Edward Florentino, 18, from A to join that group. In the FCL this year, Florentino had 95 AB, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 6/7 SB, 16 BB/22 K and a slash of 347/442/642/1.085 OPS. Promoted to A in June, and in 53 AB, he has 6 doubles, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 7/8 SB, 6 BB/14 K, and a slash of 302/377/642/1.019. Very young, but he has definitely proven to be a very strong hitter from the left side, and handles the CF position very well. He deserves to be with the level of young talent already in A+.
I give a lot of the credit for how well players have done at A+ Greensboro the last two years to the Manager, Blake Butler. We need to have him take the current group of players at A+ to AA in 2026. Cannot understand how these kids do so well in GBO and then hit a wall at AA. We definitely need to make a change, and find another Blake Butler clone to take over at GBO next year.
I love the idea of a Manager following a successful group up the ladder. Unfortunately, like David Schwimmer in band of Brothers, all trainers are not created equal. Next year will be interesting to watch in Altoona, they won’t have the “ no talent “ excuse.
Shalin is 21?! Did they sign that dude as a 9 year old? I feel like I have been pulling for a Polanco to succeed in the Burgh for most of my 45 years in this life.
Always enjoy your posts Mel10. When I read your name I think .
Wild Brine has some great kraut. Costco sells it organic. Wife made homemade gnocchi and used some sweet potatoes from last year's harvest. Sauce from our garlic and yellow cherry tomatoes. Could you smell it up there in TN.
Sweet Potato Gnocchi - my mother and my wife made homemade gnocchi, but never with sweet potatoes. My Mother's maiden name was Pantoni (Abruzzo, West of Rome), and my wife is a mixture of Libbonati's (Heel of the Boot) and Spampinato's (Sicilian). Went through life with a German last name and have never eaten anything but Italian - very spoiled.
Funny you reference Polanco, because this Florentino kid reminds me of a young Gregory Polanco. Had he not injured himself, he would have been a big time WAR player for the Pirates.
Granddad from Guardiagrele in province of Christian. You guessed it Abruzzo region as well. She slipped them in to use some up and trick the kids. We harvested 80+ lbs last fall. Need to use em up.
Shout out to Bobby Ski cause my grandma last name was Gzendzicki. Hence our mutual love of pierogi's.
I think that is just a principle every GM should have as a habit of mind. I don’t think it is yet time to trade Cruz though. See if he can bring it all together. Remember how Bill James identified year 27 as a time when many players had career years. He’ll be 27 next season. We need players no doubt but even if he continues to be a more athletic Kyle Schwarber he still has value.
I think BC needs to have an open mind at this deadline and nobody should off limits. If someone wants to overpay for Cruz then let it be. He's Uber talented but also incredibly inconsistent with his effort. He'll be entering his arbitration years and with this organization and their penny pinching ways, he may not be here long anyways.
Teenage girl and mom came into the library I work at earlier. Randomly are Pirate fans despite living in South Carolina. Tell the girl hopefully one day she has her own Cueto moment. Let's hope we all have another of those ourselves.
Highest 1st rd bWAR from last 10 drafts
2015 - Bregman 42.5 (1-2)
2016 - Will Smith 22.5 (1-32)
2017 - Hunter Greene 11.4 (1-2)
2018 - Nico Hoerner 19.0 (1-24)
2019 - Witt Jr. 19.0 - (1-2)
2020 - Chochet 9.5 (1-11)
2021 - Sal Frelick 5.3 (1-15)
2022 - Zach Neto 9.5 (1-13)
2023 - Paul F Skenes 10.7 (1-1)
2024 - too soon
Pirates picks
2015 - Kevin Newman (4.4) 1-19
2016 - Will Craig (-0.7) 1-22
2017 - Shane Baz (3.3) 1-12
2018 - Travis Swaggerty (-0.2) 1-10
2019 - Quinn Priester (-0.2) 1-18
2020 - Nick Gonzales (0.9) 1-7
2021 - Henry Davis (-1.4) 1-1
2022 - Termarr Johnson (n/a) 1-4
2023 - Paul Skenes (10.7) 1-1
so bad
you want to see something really scary?
Nats picks
2015 - no pick
2016 - Kieboom -1.8 (1-28)
2017 - Seth Romero -0.2 (1-25)
2018 - Mason Danaburg na (1-27)
2019 - Jackson Rutledge -0.5 (1-17)
2020 - Cade Cavalli -0.3 (1-22)
2021 - Brady House 0.1 (1-11)
2022 - Eli Green na (1-6)
2023 - Dylan Crews 1.1 (1-2)
At least during some of those years they had a group of guys like Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth then Juan Soto, etc. We had Cutch and then Marte and then Reynolds and nobody else. Point being, all the top picks were bad but at least the Nats managed to have a few good players every year in spite of it. Pirates never had more than one in any given year.
This is a huge reason for Rizzo’s recent firing. He was a genius at trades, but horrible at drafting. And when the Lerners cut off the funding for free agents, the organization plummeted to Pirate levels.
So if the Pirates picked Dylan Crews first, Rizzo might have a job right now assuming he picked Skenes.
The #1 reason. I would guess they were discussing who to take at 1-1 and Rizzo refused to get on board with whatever direction ownership wanted to go.
so glad they picked the safe college bats....
The one that really hurts is Swaggerty. I thought he was going to be a 3-4 annual win player.
Feel sorry for Swaggerty. A lot of bad breaks for that guy that I think carried over to baseball.
I was never a Swaggerty fan. His college stats were not that great in a second-level conference.
BA's latest mock has the pirates taking Hernandez. what's interesting is they said the pirates are more tied to high school players. law and MLB.com dudes are saying the pirates are more tied to college players. so it'll be interesting to see who's right (hopefully BA)
My guess is Jamie Arnold. I think they want 2 lefties in the rotation at all times. Barco will more than likely replace Heany & Arnold could eventually replace Falter.
Never pick out of need, but this is just my gut feel.
Just please don't draft Arquette.
he'd be fine. I guess. rather not take a pitcher tho
Do you want one of the hs SS? Im all aboard that train
absolutely. willits, Carlson or Parker. id go with Parker
Only if we draft his brother too, getting the Parker Brothers the year the Cobra is enshrined.
I would like us to get all of the Parker Brothers so we could have a Monopoly.
makeitso.gif
What about Jace LaViolette as a signability pick. Slid because he was playing through injury but was a top 3 guy heading into this season and put up a heroic effort against LSU during the tournament (3 dinger game while injured).
"LaViolette enters his draft spring as a career .297/.433/.683 hitter with 50 homers in two seasons at A&M. He has enormous left-handed power and controls the zone. He has a fair amount of swing-and-miss (24% K% in 2024), but it's not so bad as to create scary bust risk. LaViolette's swing and approach are geared for power; he had a 23 degree average launch in 2024. He's strong enough to leave the yard from pole to pole, but most of his damage is done to the pull side. LaViolette has a low ball proclivity, and he can struggle with fastballs up and away from him, but his thump is weaponized enough by his swing plane for him to get to power even if he's striking out a lot. LaViolette also has a sneaky shot to stay in center field. He has spent time in center and right, and he looks comfortable going back on balls over his head, but his size might be a prohibitive factor as he matures and fills out. LaViolette has a star-level power-hitting center fielder ceiling" (he hit. 258 .427 .576 this year so definitely didn't have his best season)
Seems like a good kid too: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/jace-laviolette-defends-michael-earley-after-texas-am-exit-id-die-for-him/
The power would be super interesting but Baseball America had an article that broke down all the college hitters that were drafted in the first round that didn't have a .300 average their draft season.
Things generally don't work out well.
AM - there's college hitters and then there are SEC college hitters who have to face First Round caliber pitchers every weekend of the SEC season. There will be 4 SEC Pitchers who will be drafted before LaViolette, and the first picks could be No. 1 and No. 2 with Anderson of LSU and Doyle of TN. Last year the SEC also had 4 Pitchers go in the 1st Round.
Hitters can lose confidence, and before they find the answers, they could drop well below a 24% K rate in the SEC. If there is a question, go with the kid with the best Character - he'll show up and out-work the others, and from this point on, that is the most important aspect of playing this game professionally
The only list I was able to find at FG has him as the best pick, but I think is dated before the season.
Yeah that's the one that got me thinking of him.
Was he hurt all year? Cause he hit poorly for most of it. Even with that, the dude has some pretty big red flags.
I’m not a prep arm guy, but I’d much rather take Hernandez over Jace at 1-6.
From BP’s draft profile of Jace (at 29 on their top 50).
“Laviolette’s 80% in zone contact rate was significantly below the D-1 average, and he was particularly dominated by same-side slow stuff. Everyone hits the ball less hard transferring to wood bats, even the Jac Caglianones of the world and Laviolette has simply not put up that kind of hard hit data or made anywhere near as much in-zone contact as Caglianone did at Florida. At the end of the day, Laviolette hit .258 this year and we can’t say his swing level data suggests he was terribly unlucky. For all his immense power and athletic traits, it is exceedingly uncommon for players with that troubling a current hit tool in the college environment to turn into good major league players.”
No he wasn't. He had a slow start as SEC teams found a hole in his game (sliders) he had to adjust back on. He seems to have some but it ended in a down year. It's definitely a risk. Still, he was _the guy_ headed into this season.
Best arms on the planet will eat him up
@ Bill JLO Clinton
24% k-rate vs college arms is a major red flag.
He was in SEC. Lots of MLB quality pitching. We've seen 20+ k rate guys get drafted high and do ok as long as they're from good conferences with good competition.
Good thing our front office seems to be color blind when it comes to hitters!
I think the problem with signability with the first pick is our next selection isn't until 50. Im not sure if we can reliably float someone down that far. If there's 10+ options for overslot guys that are worth it, then Im all in. I'm certainly not opposed after reading more about this cat - in fact im rather impressed- but im just not sure how we can maximize that later in the draft
Fair, might not work well this year. Do we still have time to trade for a Comp A or B for this season yet?
I have that feeling as well, and don't want them taking Arquette.
Arquette profiles as a very ok big league player, right? My impression is no star potential, meh defender and the bat is his "carrying" skill but it's not even going to be plus. Is that about right?
As I posted the other day, according to Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, the downside risk with Arquette is that he moves to third base and doesn’t generate more than 20 HR power. The best case scenario is that he stays at short and hits 30-35 HRs per year.
The downside is Jeff King redux, which I don’t think is good enough for pick 6. And given the Pirates’ abysmal record with developing hitters, I don’t have much confidence that Arquette will reach his ceiling with the Pirates.
And speaking of King the Pirates took him #1 overall in 1986, and passed on Matt Williams and Gary Sheffield, not to mention Greg Swindell, Kevin Brown, and Kent Mercker. That’s your top six and the Pirates took arguably the worst player of the six. Not good.
Still some swing and miss, if the pirates were drafting in the teens, I'd probably want them to draft him but not at pick 6.
Nope on Arquette.
I don't love taking a HS RHSP. Every year there's debate over a guy or two and whether he's worth it more than guys like Dylan Bundy and just last year we finally saw Hunter Greene start to figure it out 7 years after being drafted no 2. List littered with Noble Meyers, Jackson Jobes, Tyler Koleks, and every year we hear a few scouts say "no no, this guy is safer because his secondaries are a little more advanced" or whatever. Especially this year, take the best hitter with the most upside.
Dylan Lesko, what ever happened to that guy?
moved onto the Rays development list after four appearances as a reliever in high-A this year. has never been able to get the ball close enough to the plate to be viable.
Still wish Pirates had taken Machado rather than Taillion for all of these reasons.
That is one of the great what ifs: if they had taken Machado, would the 2013-2015 teams gotten to the top? He made the majors in 2012 at age 19 and was a 5.7 bWAR player in 2013.
I’m skeptical they’ll take a prep RHP at 1-6. Not their thing.
Probably one of the few things they're reasonably correct on as a group.
It will come down to how desperate bc is to save his job. Take a college bat that may come up faster or roll the dice on an 18 yr old.....This draft is heavy on high potential HS shortstop. Some real nice college arms that could go thru the system fast. Not necessarily a need but you never have enough pitching and the only way they can get a bat is to trade pitching for one.
That is really interesting. It’s rare to see that wide a divergence among the experts. I lean towards BA being right given the new scouting director (as of 2024) and the smashing success of the Griffin pick.
Thanks for posting.
I think it speaks to the quality of this draft, especially the HS SS class. Rare to get more than a good one, maybe two, out of any draft so having this many all sort of jumbled together turns it into a crapshoot.
This is the kind of draft where scouting directors really make their money. The Nats got spoiled getting Strasburg and Harper back to back with the #1 overall pick. Not so easy this year, even at 1 overall.
This is the kind of draft where the best player could easily turn out to be taken at pick 20 or 25. Very challenging.
Josh Owens seems like this year's Jackson Merrill. He might not make it to pick 50. He has the right tools to be a big riser when he fills out (it's already started).
I hate having the Crads picking right ahead of us. I figure they’re sure to grab whoever I’d most want.
Watch they'll grab Hernandez.
That's my fear and he lives up to the hype.
Yeah, I think he's going to be real good.
I’m a bit skeptical because he’s primarily fastball/change. Makes me wonder how good the breaking ball is. But don’t listen to me, I’m wrong about everyone!
https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/PBR/seth-hernandez--prep-baseball-s-top-pitching-prospect
Here's a different report,
He throws a really good 12-6 curve potential plus pitch.
I'm holding onto a string of hope the pirates get him, didn't think there was a chance earlier but a smidgen now.
1st round P makes me nervous. Skenes was generational.
The Pirates have their own group of Top Position Players congregating at the A+ Level of the Minors in Greensboro. They are young and playing very well - at present they have Konnor Griffin 19, Will Taylor 22, Javier Rivas 23, Lonnie White, Jr 22, Shalin Polanco 21, and Axiel Plaz 20.
In the next week or so I hope they will be promoting Edward Florentino, 18, from A to join that group. In the FCL this year, Florentino had 95 AB, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 6/7 SB, 16 BB/22 K and a slash of 347/442/642/1.085 OPS. Promoted to A in June, and in 53 AB, he has 6 doubles, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 7/8 SB, 6 BB/14 K, and a slash of 302/377/642/1.019. Very young, but he has definitely proven to be a very strong hitter from the left side, and handles the CF position very well. He deserves to be with the level of young talent already in A+.
I give a lot of the credit for how well players have done at A+ Greensboro the last two years to the Manager, Blake Butler. We need to have him take the current group of players at A+ to AA in 2026. Cannot understand how these kids do so well in GBO and then hit a wall at AA. We definitely need to make a change, and find another Blake Butler clone to take over at GBO next year.
I love the idea of a Manager following a successful group up the ladder. Unfortunately, like David Schwimmer in band of Brothers, all trainers are not created equal. Next year will be interesting to watch in Altoona, they won’t have the “ no talent “ excuse.
Shalin is 21?! Did they sign that dude as a 9 year old? I feel like I have been pulling for a Polanco to succeed in the Burgh for most of my 45 years in this life.
Always enjoy your posts Mel10. When I read your name I think .
https://youtu.be/6VCdJyOAQYM?si=UX-Nb6MqEUETjOTF
Wild Brine has some great kraut. Costco sells it organic. Wife made homemade gnocchi and used some sweet potatoes from last year's harvest. Sauce from our garlic and yellow cherry tomatoes. Could you smell it up there in TN.
Sweet Potato Gnocchi - my mother and my wife made homemade gnocchi, but never with sweet potatoes. My Mother's maiden name was Pantoni (Abruzzo, West of Rome), and my wife is a mixture of Libbonati's (Heel of the Boot) and Spampinato's (Sicilian). Went through life with a German last name and have never eaten anything but Italian - very spoiled.
Funny you reference Polanco, because this Florentino kid reminds me of a young Gregory Polanco. Had he not injured himself, he would have been a big time WAR player for the Pirates.
Granddad from Guardiagrele in province of Christian. You guessed it Abruzzo region as well. She slipped them in to use some up and trick the kids. We harvested 80+ lbs last fall. Need to use em up.
Shout out to Bobby Ski cause my grandma last name was Gzendzicki. Hence our mutual love of pierogi's.
Guess we don’t really have to worry about him potentially messing up his swing for the rest of the season. Let it rip kid.
I think that is just a principle every GM should have as a habit of mind. I don’t think it is yet time to trade Cruz though. See if he can bring it all together. Remember how Bill James identified year 27 as a time when many players had career years. He’ll be 27 next season. We need players no doubt but even if he continues to be a more athletic Kyle Schwarber he still has value.
Right. How much worse can it get....Maybe this is a hope to build his trade value if he goes out there and puts on a show.
We should not trade Cruz! Why would you trade him?
I think BC needs to have an open mind at this deadline and nobody should off limits. If someone wants to overpay for Cruz then let it be. He's Uber talented but also incredibly inconsistent with his effort. He'll be entering his arbitration years and with this organization and their penny pinching ways, he may not be here long anyways.