-Since the beginning of August, Oneil has produced an astronomical 96 mph average exit velo...and a 2 degree launch angle. GB rate jumped from 37% in July to 57%. God help the league if he can consistently put the ball in the air.
-Jared Triolo, on the other hand, has decreased his ground ball rate over that time by about 20 points and has quietly been an above average hitter over the ;last six weeks or so.
-Nick and Hank have came back SWINGIN. Both offering at strikes 84% of the time and balls more than 40%.
I've been thinking about Cruz's launch angle lately. At first I thought the numerous grounders and low liners were just a fluky thing but they've become so common that I'm wondering about whether he made a small adjustment to his swing. I also wonder if he'll start looking for more loft given that he still needs two HRs to get to the 20-20 club. That should be a given but he's only hit one since July 28 and none since August 9.
YOUR Pittsburgh Pirates over the last month have SEVEN regulars at 114 wRC+ or higher but the 7th worst offense in the game over that time at just 89 wRC+.
How?
They've given their 1st (IKF) and 4th (BDLC) most attempts to awful hitters, at 57 wRC+ and 43 wRC+ respectively.
I truly still believe this club is closer than they seem due to the ability for massive improvement by simply avoiding the awful.
Unfortunately, expecting BC to avoid the awful is like expecting Nuttin not to be cheap. The awful is what he does. He's made an art form out of finding and endlessly employing replacement and sub-replacement players.
Just think about this season. They added Skenes and Jones. They got Ortiz straightened out. They found a catcher who's second at his position in MLB (200+ PAs) in wRC+. They got Cruz back and hitting well, and didn't bench him as some here are screeching for them to do. They're getting a good year from Reynolds. Yet with all this, they're on pace to lose about the same number of games as last year. It takes a special brand of incompetence to have all that go right yet manage not to improve.
In the case of IKF you’re paying for defense. In the case of BDLC, you’re getting a low ceiling/high floor player who is ill suited to our roster construction and our ballpark.
We are never going to be able to afford complete players with our budgetary constraints. So the solution is to focus on finding left handed platoon bats who can take advantage of the short porch. But we only have 7 pure lefties on the 40 man.
In IKF, you basically got Ke'Bryan Hayes, but the SS version cause just as they HAVE to (had to) stick to the closer is the closer, their gold glove 3B has to be the 3B rather than maybe give him a go at SS. Is it the worst plan, in theory no. But then they need to use resources and assets to boost other areas. In BDLC, I'm not sure you can even say he's a high floor. A below offensive and abysmal defending OF is not high floor.
And, they can. They were gifted Joey Bart. Now, they have their CF. There are a lot of cracks, but it would maybe be best to say, spent a bigger chunk of the available budget on getting one well rounded player for one position, and then let the others fall as they may.
Obvious biggest issue in all of this is their development, of position players. The biggest asset they have going into the off-season will be trade chips in terms of their pitching depth. Pirates don't have Corbin Burnes, but they could stand to deal away from MLB bullpen and SP with controllable players.
My assessment of BDLC is based on him being consistently average-ish with the bat. The statcast numbers back up that he’s been average-ish this year from a LA/EV/barrel perspective. The plate discipline just cuts into the ceiling and we are horrific organization to fix that.
Obviously there’s more than one way to construct a suitable roster, but the 2013 squad would be a guide for me. Multiple strong side platoon players on that roster: Walker, Alvarez, Morneau, Jones, Snider. In that context, the obsession with guys like BDLC/Eddie O/Connor Joe is a bit puzzling, and so is grafting defensive first guys like IKF on top of a lineup that already struggles offensively is equally perplexing. If I’m them, I’m trying to scour the market for Jake Fraley types.
It's tough to say though, cause Cutch has supposedly found the fountain of youth, but he's about to be 38 in a month. And in keeping him, which is fine, you're then essentially saying BDLC is your RF. Unless they actually upgrade. And unless they upgrade, IKF is probably starting SS now, who probably isn't THIS bad, but he also isn't the pre-trade IKF.
From there, it's gonna take a lot of trust and faith in (once again) guys "figuring it out". Can't afford Tree's first 4 month, or how abysmal Tellez was (whether he comes back or his replacement) first couple months.
Cruz to CF I feel at least fills a HUGE void, that will pay dividends throughout roster construction. I think they're relatively close, I just don't trust their ability and efforts to actually do something about avoiding the awful.
I believe a competent GM could come in and improve the team from top to bottom without doing anything drastic. No selling the farm for big leaguers, and no need for an instant "rebuild" process. The bones and foundation is present, but Ben and Co. need to actually do something to fill in the cracks.
The Bucs are 65-73 and in last place with 24 games remaining.
In order to get to .500, they will have to go 16-8 (.666 winning percentage... scary, I know!) the rest of the way. Should they lose 9 of the remaining games, a "non-losing" season is lost.
I feel like different times of the season, different elements have gone belly-up. If it wasn't the hitting it was the starters. If it wasn't the starters, it was the bullpen.
Like I say, folks; the difference between a win and a loss is the flick of a switch.
I don't know how much of it is earned but Johnson has gone through weird stretches of BABIP luck this year. 067 since moving up to AA?
I bet Lonnie would be having a hell of a lot more fun on campus, that's for sure, but still probably made the wise life decision to bank a million bucks when the opportunity presented itself.
You wonder with NIL and him still in professional athlete shape (not saying same muscle mass he would need if he played football), would he consider going back to college to play?
Just got off mine! Kicked my ass for a few days then I got to take advantage and enjoy, hope it goes the same for you. Fwiw, paxlovid seemed like it really made a big difference in making me feel better in a hurry
When I was working at sprint, our store got shut down. Was supposed to be two weeks, turned into a couple of months.
They paid us 75% of our salary plus whatever our last commission check was. Then paid us the other 25% when we returned. We just had to be ‘open’ to going to another store if called upon (I never was)
All we had to do was jump on a zoom call with everyone else at the store, take a screen shot of us all there, and we got paid.
We were supposed to do ‘excercises’ to stay sharp but really it turned into ‘what we been watching on Netflix’ conversations.
I work in health care and my work still tests us weekly. It's honestly a joke the way they do it but if they want me to sit at home and drink beer, who am I to argue
Yep, unless we go 2 or 3 weeks without a positive then we stop testing till another 1 pops up. Between staff and clients there's close to a thousand people so it really never ends
Is Richard Ramirez injured? He had a very strong year in the FCL with the bat and behind the plate, but we have our 16th Round Catcher, Justin Miknis, doing the Catching at A.
Pirate 19 year old position stars - Severino, YDLS, Caro, Valdez, Plaz, Blanco, and Ramirez.
Pirate 19 and 18 year old Pitching stars - 19 year olds Kennedy, Mueth; 18 year olds Castillo, Matoma, Mateo, Carreno, and Francia.
Thanks Wilbur, with the 800+ OPS and the CS about the same number as the SB's, That sure looks good for such a young kid. Is there a limit on the number of coaches allowed per team? If not, I would like to see the Pirates assign some extra's to that group that will probably be at A next year. The next big time group to hit the Majors I hope!
Seen Griffin three times (once as DH) and Sanford two. Not a lot to go on, maybe 10 or so PAs total between them. Saw Griffin hit a long triple. Both seem to have a solid approach, not much swing and miss. Both look smooth in the field. Griffin's had more to do when I've seen him. Covers plenty of ground and the arm looks like a 70. Speed also a 70. Gets underway quickly for a guy his size.
Lets get our 10 wins back, sneak into the playoffs. The Cardinals used to do stuff like that all the time. It can happen, right? 10 games back of wild card, with 24 to play. Basically a given.
The next season without a soul crushing, collaspening losing streak will be my favorite one
Somewhere along the way toward completing those 24 games, the Pirates should start to reduce the work of the kids who have pitched well beyond our hopes this year, and nearing the point of being overworked in their MLB Rookie seasons such as Skenes, Jones, and Ortiz. Ortiz at 113 IP is 30 innings short of the 144 he pitched in 2023 - possibly allow two more starts; Jones at 101 IP is 25 innings short of the 126 he pitched in the minors last year; Skenes at 114 IP, probably threw a lot more in 2023, but not under the pressure he has been subjected to as possibly the NL ROY. I'd let him have possibly 2 more starts of 5 or 6 innings.
Would love to bury the cubbies tonight. Also, given those whiff percentages AM put above, hopefully they have Wentz drop his 4seam usage a fair bit and spread it out over the other three pitches. I suppose they also could be seeing him as a good option to teach a sinker to
If you were listening to Brown last night, you know that tonight is for the season series. We've already won the season series against the Reds, are 5-5 against the Brewers with 3 left to play and are 4-5 against the Cardinals with 4 left to play. Win tonight and the remaining series against the Brewers (who may have nothing to play for by the time we play them, though they are in the hunt for a first-round bye and even overall best record) and Cardinals and we could have winning records against all the NL Central teams. At the very least, we'll likely have a winning overall record against the NL Central. That's something. I can also see that as central to the case Shelton makes for why he should be retained.
It is not, and I am sure TN knows that, but it is a positive and after 5 years of almost consistent negatives, there is not much to make an argument for why he should be retained.
Shelton easily should be retained, with the trajectory of this club. Indeed, we feel apart in August. Through the first half, we were contenders. The players, to each of them, would be the first to say it is themselves, the players, who failed in August. It was not Nutting, Cheri, Shelton or anyone else
This club is on the right path. We've got a boat lot of pitching prospects to acquire more talent for the offense. Next year, 2025, ought to be our year to make the serious push for the playoffs. With this pitching, we would be a threat in the playoffs.
A counterargument is that talent-wise we should be poised to make the postseason next year, so shouldn't we want a manager with a proven record of leading a team to and during the postseason? There are other arguments for and against a change and It's a fair debate, but neither perspective is "ludicrous".
Some managers are better for ground floor rebuilds, but aren’t the guy who to take that step to the next level. Shelton isn’t that guy to take them up a step-of course, I don’t think BC should be retained either.
This exactly. I’d be very leery of letting him trade anything of pitching value for a bat. That’s how you end up trading a future solid mid-rotation starter for someone like Erik Gonzalez. This, and the state of the minor league system are the biggest arguments against retaining him.
The variance in his season gives me hope that with a tweak or two, he can be a valuable part of the pen.
Relatedly, I think it's too soon to put much faith in Santana. For example, the ball Reynolds caught on Saturday would have been a HR in 11/30 parks and instead of a clean outing holding the lead he would have put us in a 2-run hole and likely have taken the loss--how would that have changed the narrative? Would he have even been given the save opportunity on Monday? However, there is some evidence that they've helped him and therefore some hope that they'll help Wentz.
other stats...
-Since the beginning of August, Oneil has produced an astronomical 96 mph average exit velo...and a 2 degree launch angle. GB rate jumped from 37% in July to 57%. God help the league if he can consistently put the ball in the air.
-Jared Triolo, on the other hand, has decreased his ground ball rate over that time by about 20 points and has quietly been an above average hitter over the ;last six weeks or so.
-Nick and Hank have came back SWINGIN. Both offering at strikes 84% of the time and balls more than 40%.
I've been thinking about Cruz's launch angle lately. At first I thought the numerous grounders and low liners were just a fluky thing but they've become so common that I'm wondering about whether he made a small adjustment to his swing. I also wonder if he'll start looking for more loft given that he still needs two HRs to get to the 20-20 club. That should be a given but he's only hit one since July 28 and none since August 9.
YOUR Pittsburgh Pirates over the last month have SEVEN regulars at 114 wRC+ or higher but the 7th worst offense in the game over that time at just 89 wRC+.
How?
They've given their 1st (IKF) and 4th (BDLC) most attempts to awful hitters, at 57 wRC+ and 43 wRC+ respectively.
I truly still believe this club is closer than they seem due to the ability for massive improvement by simply avoiding the awful.
"avoiding the awful"
Unfortunately, expecting BC to avoid the awful is like expecting Nuttin not to be cheap. The awful is what he does. He's made an art form out of finding and endlessly employing replacement and sub-replacement players.
Just think about this season. They added Skenes and Jones. They got Ortiz straightened out. They found a catcher who's second at his position in MLB (200+ PAs) in wRC+. They got Cruz back and hitting well, and didn't bench him as some here are screeching for them to do. They're getting a good year from Reynolds. Yet with all this, they're on pace to lose about the same number of games as last year. It takes a special brand of incompetence to have all that go right yet manage not to improve.
i hear you brother.
Yes, but acquiring IKF and BDLC were their attempts are avoiding the awful lol
In the case of IKF you’re paying for defense. In the case of BDLC, you’re getting a low ceiling/high floor player who is ill suited to our roster construction and our ballpark.
We are never going to be able to afford complete players with our budgetary constraints. So the solution is to focus on finding left handed platoon bats who can take advantage of the short porch. But we only have 7 pure lefties on the 40 man.
In IKF, you basically got Ke'Bryan Hayes, but the SS version cause just as they HAVE to (had to) stick to the closer is the closer, their gold glove 3B has to be the 3B rather than maybe give him a go at SS. Is it the worst plan, in theory no. But then they need to use resources and assets to boost other areas. In BDLC, I'm not sure you can even say he's a high floor. A below offensive and abysmal defending OF is not high floor.
And, they can. They were gifted Joey Bart. Now, they have their CF. There are a lot of cracks, but it would maybe be best to say, spent a bigger chunk of the available budget on getting one well rounded player for one position, and then let the others fall as they may.
Obvious biggest issue in all of this is their development, of position players. The biggest asset they have going into the off-season will be trade chips in terms of their pitching depth. Pirates don't have Corbin Burnes, but they could stand to deal away from MLB bullpen and SP with controllable players.
My assessment of BDLC is based on him being consistently average-ish with the bat. The statcast numbers back up that he’s been average-ish this year from a LA/EV/barrel perspective. The plate discipline just cuts into the ceiling and we are horrific organization to fix that.
Obviously there’s more than one way to construct a suitable roster, but the 2013 squad would be a guide for me. Multiple strong side platoon players on that roster: Walker, Alvarez, Morneau, Jones, Snider. In that context, the obsession with guys like BDLC/Eddie O/Connor Joe is a bit puzzling, and so is grafting defensive first guys like IKF on top of a lineup that already struggles offensively is equally perplexing. If I’m them, I’m trying to scour the market for Jake Fraley types.
true enough!
It's tough to say though, cause Cutch has supposedly found the fountain of youth, but he's about to be 38 in a month. And in keeping him, which is fine, you're then essentially saying BDLC is your RF. Unless they actually upgrade. And unless they upgrade, IKF is probably starting SS now, who probably isn't THIS bad, but he also isn't the pre-trade IKF.
From there, it's gonna take a lot of trust and faith in (once again) guys "figuring it out". Can't afford Tree's first 4 month, or how abysmal Tellez was (whether he comes back or his replacement) first couple months.
Cruz to CF I feel at least fills a HUGE void, that will pay dividends throughout roster construction. I think they're relatively close, I just don't trust their ability and efforts to actually do something about avoiding the awful.
I believe a competent GM could come in and improve the team from top to bottom without doing anything drastic. No selling the farm for big leaguers, and no need for an instant "rebuild" process. The bones and foundation is present, but Ben and Co. need to actually do something to fill in the cracks.
The Bucs are 65-73 and in last place with 24 games remaining.
In order to get to .500, they will have to go 16-8 (.666 winning percentage... scary, I know!) the rest of the way. Should they lose 9 of the remaining games, a "non-losing" season is lost.
I feel like different times of the season, different elements have gone belly-up. If it wasn't the hitting it was the starters. If it wasn't the starters, it was the bullpen.
Like I say, folks; the difference between a win and a loss is the flick of a switch.
Let's
Go
Bucs!
Chandler going tonight for Indy and Reed for Greensboro, hopefully both keep taking steps forward.
My Goodness Termarr.
You think Lonnie White is regretting bypassing PSU for professional baseball?
I don't know how much of it is earned but Johnson has gone through weird stretches of BABIP luck this year. 067 since moving up to AA?
I bet Lonnie would be having a hell of a lot more fun on campus, that's for sure, but still probably made the wise life decision to bank a million bucks when the opportunity presented itself.
Interesting observation on TJ. It’s not like he’s K’d in half his plate appearances either.
.365 BABIP in July, .212 in August.
You wonder with NIL and him still in professional athlete shape (not saying same muscle mass he would need if he played football), would he consider going back to college to play?
Sent home from work for covid vacation. Forced to stay home and drink beer and watch football all week... Damn
Just got off mine! Kicked my ass for a few days then I got to take advantage and enjoy, hope it goes the same for you. Fwiw, paxlovid seemed like it really made a big difference in making me feel better in a hurry
I didn't know they were still doing that. My COVID vacation was Jan of 2021.
2020 I got 2 weeks of MULA, but we received unemployment for those 2 weeks.
When I was working at sprint, our store got shut down. Was supposed to be two weeks, turned into a couple of months.
They paid us 75% of our salary plus whatever our last commission check was. Then paid us the other 25% when we returned. We just had to be ‘open’ to going to another store if called upon (I never was)
All we had to do was jump on a zoom call with everyone else at the store, take a screen shot of us all there, and we got paid.
We were supposed to do ‘excercises’ to stay sharp but really it turned into ‘what we been watching on Netflix’ conversations.
Was a weird time lol
Strange times indeed, my friend
I work in health care and my work still tests us weekly. It's honestly a joke the way they do it but if they want me to sit at home and drink beer, who am I to argue
weekly?!
Yep, unless we go 2 or 3 weeks without a positive then we stop testing till another 1 pops up. Between staff and clients there's close to a thousand people so it really never ends
Is Richard Ramirez injured? He had a very strong year in the FCL with the bat and behind the plate, but we have our 16th Round Catcher, Justin Miknis, doing the Catching at A.
Pirate 19 year old position stars - Severino, YDLS, Caro, Valdez, Plaz, Blanco, and Ramirez.
Pirate 19 and 18 year old Pitching stars - 19 year olds Kennedy, Mueth; 18 year olds Castillo, Matoma, Mateo, Carreno, and Francia.
No, I saw Ramirez a couple times in recent “bridge league” games. They seem to want to get Miknis a lot of PT now that Alfonzo has moved on.
Ramirez has a terrific arm, but his receiving needs a ton of work. He also needs to do a lot less chasing.
Thanks Wilbur, with the 800+ OPS and the CS about the same number as the SB's, That sure looks good for such a young kid. Is there a limit on the number of coaches allowed per team? If not, I would like to see the Pirates assign some extra's to that group that will probably be at A next year. The next big time group to hit the Majors I hope!
Have you got a chance to see Griffin or Sanford? If so, how they looking?
Seen Griffin three times (once as DH) and Sanford two. Not a lot to go on, maybe 10 or so PAs total between them. Saw Griffin hit a long triple. Both seem to have a solid approach, not much swing and miss. Both look smooth in the field. Griffin's had more to do when I've seen him. Covers plenty of ground and the arm looks like a 70. Speed also a 70. Gets underway quickly for a guy his size.
Saw Griffin hit a lot balls, and Sanford get hit by a lot of balls.
Fantastic, I love the behind the scenes info. Thanks Wilbur
Wish I could get more, but it looks like they may not be doing a fall instructional league this year.
Lets get our 10 wins back, sneak into the playoffs. The Cardinals used to do stuff like that all the time. It can happen, right? 10 games back of wild card, with 24 to play. Basically a given.
The next season without a soul crushing, collaspening losing streak will be my favorite one
Somewhere along the way toward completing those 24 games, the Pirates should start to reduce the work of the kids who have pitched well beyond our hopes this year, and nearing the point of being overworked in their MLB Rookie seasons such as Skenes, Jones, and Ortiz. Ortiz at 113 IP is 30 innings short of the 144 he pitched in 2023 - possibly allow two more starts; Jones at 101 IP is 25 innings short of the 126 he pitched in the minors last year; Skenes at 114 IP, probably threw a lot more in 2023, but not under the pressure he has been subjected to as possibly the NL ROY. I'd let him have possibly 2 more starts of 5 or 6 innings.
Would love to bury the cubbies tonight. Also, given those whiff percentages AM put above, hopefully they have Wentz drop his 4seam usage a fair bit and spread it out over the other three pitches. I suppose they also could be seeing him as a good option to teach a sinker to
If you were listening to Brown last night, you know that tonight is for the season series. We've already won the season series against the Reds, are 5-5 against the Brewers with 3 left to play and are 4-5 against the Cardinals with 4 left to play. Win tonight and the remaining series against the Brewers (who may have nothing to play for by the time we play them, though they are in the hunt for a first-round bye and even overall best record) and Cardinals and we could have winning records against all the NL Central teams. At the very least, we'll likely have a winning overall record against the NL Central. That's something. I can also see that as central to the case Shelton makes for why he should be retained.
That they will most likely have a losing overall record obviously will mean more than having a winning record in the division.
A winning record in the division really isn’t a legit case to retain him and I don’t think it will end up being a deciding factor.
It is not, and I am sure TN knows that, but it is a positive and after 5 years of almost consistent negatives, there is not much to make an argument for why he should be retained.
Shelton easily should be retained, with the trajectory of this club. Indeed, we feel apart in August. Through the first half, we were contenders. The players, to each of them, would be the first to say it is themselves, the players, who failed in August. It was not Nutting, Cheri, Shelton or anyone else
This club is on the right path. We've got a boat lot of pitching prospects to acquire more talent for the offense. Next year, 2025, ought to be our year to make the serious push for the playoffs. With this pitching, we would be a threat in the playoffs.
It would be ludicrous to make a change now
A counterargument is that talent-wise we should be poised to make the postseason next year, so shouldn't we want a manager with a proven record of leading a team to and during the postseason? There are other arguments for and against a change and It's a fair debate, but neither perspective is "ludicrous".
NO. We should want the guy who brought us from 206 losses in two seasons, and brings us to the playoffs in three years - to STAY with the team
We do NOT want to bail ship now, with the players aware they are THE reason the team lost its manager
Sorry Shelton is NOT a manager who will get you to the playoffs.
Some managers are better for ground floor rebuilds, but aren’t the guy who to take that step to the next level. Shelton isn’t that guy to take them up a step-of course, I don’t think BC should be retained either.
Thumbs up for this point of view, not wrong imho, but also not sure you are right, uncertain times, curious to see what happens👍
What evidence from the last five years points to BC's ability to acquire more talent for the offense?
This exactly. I’d be very leery of letting him trade anything of pitching value for a bat. That’s how you end up trading a future solid mid-rotation starter for someone like Erik Gonzalez. This, and the state of the minor league system are the biggest arguments against retaining him.
I wonder if they'll attempt to improve it's consistency. It's had a wild variance throughout the season of it's been a plus pitch to horrendous.
The variance in his season gives me hope that with a tweak or two, he can be a valuable part of the pen.
Relatedly, I think it's too soon to put much faith in Santana. For example, the ball Reynolds caught on Saturday would have been a HR in 11/30 parks and instead of a clean outing holding the lead he would have put us in a 2-run hole and likely have taken the loss--how would that have changed the narrative? Would he have even been given the save opportunity on Monday? However, there is some evidence that they've helped him and therefore some hope that they'll help Wentz.