There's no lack of power. Triolo is the only player in the lineup without potential 20 HR ability, and you could argue KeBryan as well. Brey, Suwinsky, Taylor, Tellez, Cruz, Bart, and Olivarez, and Cutch all have power. Joe even has a fair amount of pop along with KeBryan even without the HR totals. The fact that they aren't currently delivering it is a function of the teamwide slump, not a lack of power.
Unrelated, but a great article on old Buc, Travis Snider and his post-career work over at The Athletic. It’s aimed towards improving the culture of youth sports. Great stuff.
After Tuesday's game it struck me how often we only score in one inning and do nothing the other seven or eight. Obviously it happened again yesterday, so now we've scored in 12 innings (excluding the extra inning with the free runner) over the last 12 games, never scoring in more than 2 innings in a game. I.e., the chances that we'll string together enough hits in an inning to score is about 1/9 which to me suggests consistent gaps throughout the lineup, a clear lack of power, and maybe a bit of a problem with how lineups are constructed. I'm starting a watch for when we score in more than two innings.
Someone's got the data to run the numbers on which teams score in fewest number of innings. And which teams score the fewest crooked number innings. We gotta be very close to the bottom.
They don't have "consistent gaps" in the lineup, they have gigantic cliffs in the lineup daily. After a first four of Joe, Reynold, Hayes and Cruz then comes some five batter combination of Tellez, Triolo. Olivares, Suwinski, Grandal/Bart, Taylor, Williams and McCutchen who currently have a cumulative BA of .195 and it's only that high because the slugging Williams is hitting .239. This is NOT a major league lineup and they need far more than one outfielder to make it one.
Doc....can we stop on the batting average thing. Noone cares about that anymore. OBP and OPS is the 21st century. You might want to consider that more than 65% of the homeruns we've hit this year come from Olivares, Cutch, Bart, and Suwinski. Triolo here is the obvious replacement. His glove has value, his bat does not. Good trade candidate, bring up Gonzales or Peguero.
This tells me the chances are better that the problem is not a specific hitter, but it is something that is affecting all of the hitters. Before I start trading good pitching for another hitter, I would like to solve what is currently affecting all of the hitters.
While I am concerned about the Pirates’ approach to teaching hitting in the system, the problems at the big league level are more a result of sheer lack of talent than poor instruction. The latter is an issue for sure, but too many players simply suck, and even if Charlie Lau or Walt Hrniak magically appeared at PNC tomorrow I don’t think it would make a difference.
Can't disagree more. Most of these hitters have already shown, and in the last 2-3 seasons (none of them being nearly old enough for diminishing ability) the ability to hit for good power. Taylor, Tellez, Suwinski, Olivares specifically. Cutch will pick up, and then you have Triolo left which has little upside with the bat, and Hank down in AAA figuring it out. There is no lack of talent, its lack of coaching ability to get the previous talent which was already proven, to work for our team
I lived in the Boston area in the 80s. Hrniak is without a doubt a Hall of Fame level batting coach. He turned Wade Boggs into WADE BOGGS, and transformed Dwight Evans from a clueless swing and miss guy into an on-base machine with power. Like many geniuses he was tough to work with, which is why his career was not as long as it should have been.
I always maintained that Chad Hermansen should have hired Hrniak to transform his swing and overall approach. Dwight Evens would have been Hermansen without Hrniak.
We are probably pretty close to being on the same page. I do think the Pirates have 3 or 4 guys that should be good, but aren't. Plug those guys in a good line-up and I think they perform much better. I also think we are using role players as every day players. If you picked any one of those guys and plugged them in a real line-up, they would be much better.
I know they say you can never have too much pitching, but it’s getting to that time where Pirates need to strongly consider trading from their SP prospect depth to acquire a MLB OF who can justify being a middle of the order bat with actual production.
That makes sense but the closest Cherington has come to bringing back a hitting prospect that actually helps is Suwniski, and he's a player many want replaced (I still believe :)). Plus, if we were to trade, say, Chandler for a comparable AA hitting prospect, I have major doubts that we could finish of the development process. I'm afraid we need a change or changes in leadership before this logical strategy to acquire hitting would pay off.
We don’t need a prospect hitter. We need a bonafide MLB hitter. The Orioles have an abundance of top prospect bats who are blocked. BC needs to work hard to get one of those Vets for a package of pitching prospects. I wouldn’t deal Bubba, but I would dangle everyone else including Tony S, Ashcraft, Barco, Harrington, etc.
But what 'justifiable' middle of the order bat can we get for somebody other than Bubba? I agree with the thought and need, but while we have depth I am not sure we have tradable value depth that can get us the immediate help we want. And I am temporarily passing on Mel's regular suggestion as I saw at least one (Fangraphs?) and a few other comments on NY pages that suggest Pereira is really not a centerfielder anymore(just their opinions ... I get it).
To date for SWB in AAA in 2024, he has played 10 games in CF, 9 games in LF, and 5 games in RF. Never seen him play the field, but obviously the Yankees see him as somebody who can play anywhere in the OF. His problem is not only Judge and Grisham at MLB, but their No. 1 and 2 Prospects Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones are also CF's. The Yankees have CF's like the Pirates have Pitching and MI's!
I am not necessarily anti Pereira but just feel he sounds like a lot of middle of the road prospects who could be an upgrade (right now a low bar) but may not really be that long term solution. So trade for him - sure - but buyer beware on how much we give up.
I was thinking that yesterday, if we picked up Bell with Jazz it could lower the price a little. Maybe something like Bae, Ashcraft, Jebb, Reed and Ro.
Been saying that for 3 or 4 months - finding a young, RH hitting Center Fielder who is strong defensively, and can hit for power. My primary would be Everson Pereira, 23, of the Yankees, currently playing at AAA. In 2023 he hit 10 doubles and 10 HR in 165 AB in AA, then hit 7 doubles and 8 HR in 138 AB at AAA, and then was promoted to MLB for 90 AB. Definitely stymied by 3 or 4 other CF's ahead of him - 2 already in MLB, and two prospects higher than him that are also CF's.
Last I looked in 2024, he had 7 doubles and 8 HR already in AAA. And yes he does strike out a lot, but that could be manageable if he can be a 20-25 HR guy between Reynolds and Suwinski, who are also 20-25 HR guys.
Not him specifically, but he's the best RH hitting young CF who can hit for power I see in AAA right now. Get him to AAA Indy and ready to take over CF later this year or out of ST in 2025. Played in MLB for the Yankees in 2023 but only has 41 days of MLB service, so AFFORDABLE for the Pirates.
I'd actually still prefer Jorge Barrosa, a little switch hitter with good on base skills that plays excellent defense in center. He would probably be cheaper to aquire as well.
I'd give up power for defense and consistent offense.
Barrosa would be a an excellent add to play CF - he does hit for some power from both sides, and hard for anyone to not like the ability to get on base. The Yankees investment in Pereira is $5.1 mil - bet the D'Backs did not sign Barrosa for anywhere near that amount of money.
Hitting over .300, over .425 on slugging and on base, around .900 ops with great defense. Got a cup with the DBacks and went 2 for 10 with a double. I think he had one strikeout but not sure.
Excellent pitching at AA Altoona from Braxton Ashcraft (5 Shutout innings) and Dominic Perachi (4 Shutout innings and the Save).
Break up the Marauders! A well pitched game at A Bradenton from 20 year old SP Antwone Kelly, who, from the charts above, was filling it up with upper 90's heat, and also getting 10 whiffs. And they are definitely not playing station-to-station baseball with runners thrown out at Home in the 8th, and at 3rd in the 9th trying to stretch a double into a triple. I noticed that Forrester was removed for a pinch runner in the 8th who was then thrown out trying to score the go-ahead run on a single. No problem with that, but hopefully the substitution was for that attempt, and not for an injury to Forrester.
FYI: Kiley at ESPN did a mini mock draft through 13. With the obligatory “who really knows” this far out, there is some intel there.
His money quote is “the hot rumor is that the Bucs take Tibbs on an underslot deal if they don’t like which of the top tier of players make it to their pick.” The 8 picks before them in order were: Bazzana, Condon, Jaglianone, Kurtz, Smith, Griffindore, Montgomery, and Burns. He has Wetherholt point to Boston at 12.
Additionally he has updated player rankings through the 150 range.
I watched the Wvu v Penn State game last night. Wetherholt looks like he is close to being fully healthy. He crushed a 440 ft homerun, has a double, single and walk with one ground out.
I think it would be a huge mistake to pass on him if he's available at pick 9, as long as none of the other top 7 college players are available. His slash line is starting to climb.
True, but out of the top 6 college bats, Wetherholt is maybe the most likely to fall. Just need the two college pitchers and one prep to go before pick 9 lol.
They have actually been on ESPN 2 the last couple of weeks against Pitt and Penn State. WVU should make the field and probably host in the opening round, decent chance of hosting a regional. I don't see them making it to Omaha, they just don't have the pitching depth. They do have a strong offense with some depth.
The top tier college guys all straight mashed ALLLL year. Honeycutt unfortunately struck out his way out of my comfort zone. Then prep kids seemed to just mostly float through the year with no one really popping off.
But also, I'd probably still say YOLO, draft Honeycutt, depending who is left at 1-9
I've actually been in on Tibbs since the early goings. I just didn't think he'd jump up the rankings as he had. I thought (hoped) he'd settle in around the Pirates 2nd/3rd picks.
There's no lack of power. Triolo is the only player in the lineup without potential 20 HR ability, and you could argue KeBryan as well. Brey, Suwinsky, Taylor, Tellez, Cruz, Bart, and Olivarez, and Cutch all have power. Joe even has a fair amount of pop along with KeBryan even without the HR totals. The fact that they aren't currently delivering it is a function of the teamwide slump, not a lack of power.
Those two months when Kebryan Hayes was good sure were a tease.
Unrelated, but a great article on old Buc, Travis Snider and his post-career work over at The Athletic. It’s aimed towards improving the culture of youth sports. Great stuff.
After Tuesday's game it struck me how often we only score in one inning and do nothing the other seven or eight. Obviously it happened again yesterday, so now we've scored in 12 innings (excluding the extra inning with the free runner) over the last 12 games, never scoring in more than 2 innings in a game. I.e., the chances that we'll string together enough hits in an inning to score is about 1/9 which to me suggests consistent gaps throughout the lineup, a clear lack of power, and maybe a bit of a problem with how lineups are constructed. I'm starting a watch for when we score in more than two innings.
Someone's got the data to run the numbers on which teams score in fewest number of innings. And which teams score the fewest crooked number innings. We gotta be very close to the bottom.
They don't have "consistent gaps" in the lineup, they have gigantic cliffs in the lineup daily. After a first four of Joe, Reynold, Hayes and Cruz then comes some five batter combination of Tellez, Triolo. Olivares, Suwinski, Grandal/Bart, Taylor, Williams and McCutchen who currently have a cumulative BA of .195 and it's only that high because the slugging Williams is hitting .239. This is NOT a major league lineup and they need far more than one outfielder to make it one.
Doc....can we stop on the batting average thing. Noone cares about that anymore. OBP and OPS is the 21st century. You might want to consider that more than 65% of the homeruns we've hit this year come from Olivares, Cutch, Bart, and Suwinski. Triolo here is the obvious replacement. His glove has value, his bat does not. Good trade candidate, bring up Gonzales or Peguero.
This tells me the chances are better that the problem is not a specific hitter, but it is something that is affecting all of the hitters. Before I start trading good pitching for another hitter, I would like to solve what is currently affecting all of the hitters.
While I am concerned about the Pirates’ approach to teaching hitting in the system, the problems at the big league level are more a result of sheer lack of talent than poor instruction. The latter is an issue for sure, but too many players simply suck, and even if Charlie Lau or Walt Hrniak magically appeared at PNC tomorrow I don’t think it would make a difference.
Can't disagree more. Most of these hitters have already shown, and in the last 2-3 seasons (none of them being nearly old enough for diminishing ability) the ability to hit for good power. Taylor, Tellez, Suwinski, Olivares specifically. Cutch will pick up, and then you have Triolo left which has little upside with the bat, and Hank down in AAA figuring it out. There is no lack of talent, its lack of coaching ability to get the previous talent which was already proven, to work for our team
Epic Walt Hrniak reference.
I lived in the Boston area in the 80s. Hrniak is without a doubt a Hall of Fame level batting coach. He turned Wade Boggs into WADE BOGGS, and transformed Dwight Evans from a clueless swing and miss guy into an on-base machine with power. Like many geniuses he was tough to work with, which is why his career was not as long as it should have been.
I always maintained that Chad Hermansen should have hired Hrniak to transform his swing and overall approach. Dwight Evens would have been Hermansen without Hrniak.
We are probably pretty close to being on the same page. I do think the Pirates have 3 or 4 guys that should be good, but aren't. Plug those guys in a good line-up and I think they perform much better. I also think we are using role players as every day players. If you picked any one of those guys and plugged them in a real line-up, they would be much better.
the approach is the issue.....not the talent
I know they say you can never have too much pitching, but it’s getting to that time where Pirates need to strongly consider trading from their SP prospect depth to acquire a MLB OF who can justify being a middle of the order bat with actual production.
That makes sense but the closest Cherington has come to bringing back a hitting prospect that actually helps is Suwniski, and he's a player many want replaced (I still believe :)). Plus, if we were to trade, say, Chandler for a comparable AA hitting prospect, I have major doubts that we could finish of the development process. I'm afraid we need a change or changes in leadership before this logical strategy to acquire hitting would pay off.
We don’t need a prospect hitter. We need a bonafide MLB hitter. The Orioles have an abundance of top prospect bats who are blocked. BC needs to work hard to get one of those Vets for a package of pitching prospects. I wouldn’t deal Bubba, but I would dangle everyone else including Tony S, Ashcraft, Barco, Harrington, etc.
It’s gonna take Bubba.
NOOOOO!
Maverick knows he can’t leave his wingman.
The stumbling block in all possible solutions is Cherington and his band of nitwits.
Goldschmidt bouncing back is a good bet
King Tuck for all the gold
But what 'justifiable' middle of the order bat can we get for somebody other than Bubba? I agree with the thought and need, but while we have depth I am not sure we have tradable value depth that can get us the immediate help we want. And I am temporarily passing on Mel's regular suggestion as I saw at least one (Fangraphs?) and a few other comments on NY pages that suggest Pereira is really not a centerfielder anymore(just their opinions ... I get it).
To date for SWB in AAA in 2024, he has played 10 games in CF, 9 games in LF, and 5 games in RF. Never seen him play the field, but obviously the Yankees see him as somebody who can play anywhere in the OF. His problem is not only Judge and Grisham at MLB, but their No. 1 and 2 Prospects Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones are also CF's. The Yankees have CF's like the Pirates have Pitching and MI's!
https://www.pinstripealley.com/2024/5/3/24147815/yankees-analysis-everson-pereira-prospect-top-hit-tool-scouting-whiff-power-athleticism-maddening
I am not necessarily anti Pereira but just feel he sounds like a lot of middle of the road prospects who could be an upgrade (right now a low bar) but may not really be that long term solution. So trade for him - sure - but buyer beware on how much we give up.
Well, since Lou Bob is hurt yet again…Jazz Chisholm?
I was thinking that yesterday, if we picked up Bell with Jazz it could lower the price a little. Maybe something like Bae, Ashcraft, Jebb, Reed and Ro.
Been saying that for 3 or 4 months - finding a young, RH hitting Center Fielder who is strong defensively, and can hit for power. My primary would be Everson Pereira, 23, of the Yankees, currently playing at AAA. In 2023 he hit 10 doubles and 10 HR in 165 AB in AA, then hit 7 doubles and 8 HR in 138 AB at AAA, and then was promoted to MLB for 90 AB. Definitely stymied by 3 or 4 other CF's ahead of him - 2 already in MLB, and two prospects higher than him that are also CF's.
Last I looked in 2024, he had 7 doubles and 8 HR already in AAA. And yes he does strike out a lot, but that could be manageable if he can be a 20-25 HR guy between Reynolds and Suwinski, who are also 20-25 HR guys.
You like Everson Pereira, eh? Never heard of him.
Not him specifically, but he's the best RH hitting young CF who can hit for power I see in AAA right now. Get him to AAA Indy and ready to take over CF later this year or out of ST in 2025. Played in MLB for the Yankees in 2023 but only has 41 days of MLB service, so AFFORDABLE for the Pirates.
I'd actually still prefer Jorge Barrosa, a little switch hitter with good on base skills that plays excellent defense in center. He would probably be cheaper to aquire as well.
I'd give up power for defense and consistent offense.
Barrosa would be a an excellent add to play CF - he does hit for some power from both sides, and hard for anyone to not like the ability to get on base. The Yankees investment in Pereira is $5.1 mil - bet the D'Backs did not sign Barrosa for anywhere near that amount of money.
They didn't and neither did the Yankees for Pereira. Pereira signed for $1.5 million, still a lot more than Barrosa.
I loved this suggestion over the winter. How is doing in 2024 so far?
Hitting over .300, over .425 on slugging and on base, around .900 ops with great defense. Got a cup with the DBacks and went 2 for 10 with a double. I think he had one strikeout but not sure.
Daulton Varsho
A LH Hitter? I thought we were looking for a RH hitter.
ill settle on just hitter for now
I'd look more for what the Pads did in acquiring Arraez, but preferably more years.
Excellent pitching at AA Altoona from Braxton Ashcraft (5 Shutout innings) and Dominic Perachi (4 Shutout innings and the Save).
Break up the Marauders! A well pitched game at A Bradenton from 20 year old SP Antwone Kelly, who, from the charts above, was filling it up with upper 90's heat, and also getting 10 whiffs. And they are definitely not playing station-to-station baseball with runners thrown out at Home in the 8th, and at 3rd in the 9th trying to stretch a double into a triple. I noticed that Forrester was removed for a pinch runner in the 8th who was then thrown out trying to score the go-ahead run on a single. No problem with that, but hopefully the substitution was for that attempt, and not for an injury to Forrester.
FYI: Kiley at ESPN did a mini mock draft through 13. With the obligatory “who really knows” this far out, there is some intel there.
His money quote is “the hot rumor is that the Bucs take Tibbs on an underslot deal if they don’t like which of the top tier of players make it to their pick.” The 8 picks before them in order were: Bazzana, Condon, Jaglianone, Kurtz, Smith, Griffindore, Montgomery, and Burns. He has Wetherholt point to Boston at 12.
Additionally he has updated player rankings through the 150 range.
Just listened to the MLB Pipeline podcast and they included Tibbs as one of the 10-14 certainties. there's kinda a tier.
Top 3
next 6
next 4-5
If you believe in Tibbs as a safe bat more than a high school guy like Griffin it's not a terrible idea
I’m not sure any player in the draft is ever “safe.”
I watched the Wvu v Penn State game last night. Wetherholt looks like he is close to being fully healthy. He crushed a 440 ft homerun, has a double, single and walk with one ground out.
I think it would be a huge mistake to pass on him if he's available at pick 9, as long as none of the other top 7 college players are available. His slash line is starting to climb.
zero chance that we pass on Weatherholt. but I bet he's gone by 9
True, but out of the top 6 college bats, Wetherholt is maybe the most likely to fall. Just need the two college pitchers and one prep to go before pick 9 lol.
Mel, is WVU a good bet to make the college WS? I’m hoping to at least watch a bit more of some of these guys if they make it there.
They have actually been on ESPN 2 the last couple of weeks against Pitt and Penn State. WVU should make the field and probably host in the opening round, decent chance of hosting a regional. I don't see them making it to Omaha, they just don't have the pitching depth. They do have a strong offense with some depth.
The top tier college guys all straight mashed ALLLL year. Honeycutt unfortunately struck out his way out of my comfort zone. Then prep kids seemed to just mostly float through the year with no one really popping off.
But also, I'd probably still say YOLO, draft Honeycutt, depending who is left at 1-9
I’d maybe look at Honeycutt with their 2nd/3rd pick if he got that far.
Honeycutt would take to the Haines method of hitting like shit to a toilet.
I'd be pissed if we passed on wetherholt and he was there. My hope was Montgomery would fall to 9 but that's unrealistic at this point
If JJ was there, I'd probably take him. I'm full game for Tibbs though.
Given the dearth of prep arms and bats in this draft, I’m not sure this is the year to cut deals.
I've actually been in on Tibbs since the early goings. I just didn't think he'd jump up the rankings as he had. I thought (hoped) he'd settle in around the Pirates 2nd/3rd picks.
Tibbs should be in the top 15, he wouldn't be a stretch at 9 as long as the other 6 college bats were already picked.
Ahhh ok I gotcha. He doesn’t sound like too much of a stretch there. JJ sounds pretty good, but those injuries…
So long as they get Jared Jones in the mid rounds, everything else is gravy
FYI. You have the Curve score as 3-3 instead of 3-0.