Though we want Cherington promoting the talent we have so that if they don't make it, we can more clearly make the point that his developmental system hasn't fixed the main problem he was hired to fix.
I would have kept CSN with invite to spring training. Would have kept Andujar as well. Would have been a competent RF. He did great during his callup and played well all year long in AAA. Not sure why BC blackballed him.
Projections are just opinions and are no better than educated guesses. I really wish I could argue with this one but in reality 73 is probably generous given the lackluster moves Cherington’s made while other teams in the division and elsewhere have actually tried to get better. I’m unsure whether the Pirate’s brass even understands or believes that the goal is to win more games.
Tellez at first base is a lateral move at best, they still don’t have a right fielder and starting pitching continues to be a major concern. Why they spent $10.5 million on Chapman with so many other areas of need is still something, that needs explanation but of course neither Cherington nor Nutting believe fans matter.
And it's not just the lack of impact moves by Cherington, but that the NL Central and the NL overall seem to have gotten stronger. We could be as good or better talent-wise than last year and not win as many games. To cherry-pick, we'll be hard-pressed to go 17-9 against the Reds and Cards. OTOH, maybe we'll do better against the Brewers and Cubs (8-18 last year).
73 might be a little light, but not by much. Agree with the comments above that they have a lot of unknowns, and this offseason has been a missed opportunity to address those unknowns. It’s not hard to see how a slightly different approach could’ve gotten them into the upper 70’s for a projection.
Can Jebb hit a curve? If not let's start the make over today. My early comp without ever seeing him play and having no idea about mechanics is Dustin Pedroia. Talk amongst yourselves. I'm getting verklempt.
Without a major economical change the Pirates will never have a Kershaw or Altuve—a star player who plays the majority of their career in Pittsburgh. Never. ☹️
I gotta say I'm shocked Bednar is still a Pirate. I see no way this team is going to pay Chapman $10 mill to pitch 40-50 innings as a set up guy. Bednar should start packing now. ;)
Should that be 73-89? Regardless, I would not be surprised if it was 73-89 or 89-73 - IMO, there is that much unknown at the present time. I like what the Pirates have in place on this date - they had a team oriented season in 2023 and if they can maintain that positivity, there is no reason to think they could not threaten a 90 win season.
Suwinski, Reynolds, and Hayes all had big seasons in '23, and the return of Oneil Cruz could be huge. Also, the year of exposure to MLB pitching for Peguero, Bae, Triolo, and Davis should pay dividends also. The biggest question mark is the Rotation, but the numbers of qualified middle relievers readily available could provide a crutch over the first few months.
I can see a world where the offense and bullpen are above average......I just see no way the rotation is going to pull off just being average. We have Keller and a bunch of train wrecks and our developmental history tells us the guys that come up to save the day will be bad also.
Yes, unless Ben has a big move or two left, or is willing to promote Jones and Skenes (and they earn the promotion) well before Super Two, 89 wins would be shocking.
But, to be optimistic, I could see this team being right around .500, maybe slightly above. Is that enough to keep things interesting? We're set up to be better in the second half so may be well out of contention before we start playing winning baseball (similar to last year, but without the super-hot start and the horrible May and June).
This season is a total toss up, they look like a 70 win team as currently constructed. Which way the team breaks from there depends a lot on the starting pitching. Going by the theory of you win a third, you lose a third, and the other 54 games is what determines the outcome. If the pitching holds up through June, we could very well be looking at an 80 plus win team.
Here's the thing. I think Gonzalez and Perez could be OK, but neither guy misses a ton of bats. The only guy in the rotation who does miss bats regularly is Keller, so the performance of the starting pitching will depend in large part upon team defense. It is not the pitching that will doom them so much as the lack of coherent team defense. They just don't have and never have a coherent team design. If you are going to bring in guys like Tellez, then you have to have pitchers who miss bats. If you are going to bring in guys like Gonzalez, then you need solid defense, especially up-the-middle.
That’s a good point, and one that is frustrating. Defense, on the whole, ain’t that expensive. Especially when comparing it to FA pitching. Defense is an easier way to improve the team; I’d much rather have them sign Kiermaier to play center, move Jack to right (two plus defenders at those positions) and shift guys around accordingly. But they didn’t.
You know what ole Whitey Herzog said when they asked him why he cared so much about speed and defense and didn't put much emphasis on power. Whitey said, "because its cheap."
But they need Joe at first base? We can’t be so greedy as to think they’d sign an expensive CFer and a first baseman without platoon splits! I suppose they have Olivares?
I don’t know how much I want him playing the field though? I also think they need to be sure to give him plenty of rest days to keep him fresh and effective. They really rode him hard last year out of necessity. It’d be nice to avoid that.
Both the Olivares and Tellez seemed like early signings to me. With all of the unsigned players out there, they seemed like they could possibly be the last pieces to the puzzle. Instead they are blocking some potential guys for us to sign at this point.
The defensive construction behind a contact heavy staff is likely to cause some issues for them, I fully agree. Unfortunately, that was probably going to be the hardest thing for them to fix. They aren’t moving Cruz off shortstop, Henry catching is going to cause a hit, and CF was going to be too rich in prospects/dollars to find a semi-permanent fix. Even someone like Kiermaier, who would’ve helped the offense too, would be a problematic fit on the roster with Suwinski.
They’ve basically already made their bed by doubling down on questionable at best defenders at two of the most important positions (Cruz and Davis). And Kiermaier wouldn’t be a problematic fit with Jack because you still have Joe to be a platoon half.
Obviously Cruz is not your traditional shortstop. With his speed, he has stolen several bloops that coundn't have been hits. He has robbed a few line drives because of his height and has an arm like a cannon.
Now as far as his accuracy, fielding a ground ball and turning a double play, I'm guessing he is below average.
I’m looking at it in the most none mathematical way possible, we feasted on the Ratbirds last year and now they went ahead and got better, that’s 4-5 wins less than last year….ok there was a bit of 1st grade math there…
I’m in agreement with you about the quality depth of the bullpen mitigating, to a great degree, the shallow state of the rotation. Especially early in the season when arms are fresh and temperatures are lower.
Conversely, the offense has me more than a bit anxious. In order for Pirates to score a half a run more per game, which is about what they need to be a viable offensive club, they’re going to need several career years from middle of the order bats.
Obviously Zips and Pecota computer projections are skeptical of this scenario.
Hearing good things on Roansy. Fastball is back to 2022. Also Ortiz in better shape. These two things would go a long way towards making the starting rotation competitive. Also check out Rowdy's first half pre injury. Think we would all want that... lots to watch this spring!
100% agree with you on the state of the offense which makes their offseason approach all the more aggravating. Their approach is essentially Cruz or bust.
I wish we locked him up while he was hurt, assuming his asking price wouldn't have been as high. After looking at Witt's contract, I doubt we will be able to sign him if he the star we are hoping for.
They could probably still sign him for something far less than Witt but they’ll have to take the risk now. Come July, if he’s on pace for a 6 WAR season that price will shoot up astronomically.
if that dude realizes that he can take ten percent off the might of his swing and it will still will put the ball over the fence, then his strikeouts will plummet
year before last, we did not see many of those flick home runs but his minor league highlights are full of them
we do not talk about O´neil Cruz enough - he is the story of our team for sure
If there’s any talent I’m comfortable betting on it’s him. He’s as good of a prospect that they’ve had since maybe Bonds. But still, that’s a lot of unnecessary pressure to put on a 25 year old with 410 career plate appearances, coming off major surgery.
It might be a whole run more per game now given their projected rotation…I just don’t see how their rotation can be set. I mean, I was way more optimistic going into 2023, and 2024 was supposed to be THE YEAR.
In related news (to yesterday's events), they've retired the old saying "Cheaters never prosper."
If any of those guys make it into the HOF I'm going to riot.
neat article on Fangraphs with Cherington talking about the high-end arms in the minors.
Thank you, but I'll pass. Talk is cheap at this point.
"Talk is cheap"
MOAR TALK!!
-- Bob Nutting
That was a Wil Crowe pitch 79 out there for ya…
Though we want Cherington promoting the talent we have so that if they don't make it, we can more clearly make the point that his developmental system hasn't fixed the main problem he was hired to fix.
Today is CSN day. Did he clear or get traded for Bob's favorite, Cash Considerations. Wouldn't terribly mind if he clears as depth option at Indy.
Reminds me of Andujar, but with 95% less ABs in the show.
I would have kept CSN with invite to spring training. Would have kept Andujar as well. Would have been a competent RF. He did great during his callup and played well all year long in AAA. Not sure why BC blackballed him.
I like seeing players play for one team for their whole career
I hope the reds GM comes to his senses
The guy that has proposed 200 trades in the last month now says he likes players playing for one team their whole career. :)
i only want to get rid of the bumbs and belly itchers
Projections are just opinions and are no better than educated guesses. I really wish I could argue with this one but in reality 73 is probably generous given the lackluster moves Cherington’s made while other teams in the division and elsewhere have actually tried to get better. I’m unsure whether the Pirate’s brass even understands or believes that the goal is to win more games.
Tellez at first base is a lateral move at best, they still don’t have a right fielder and starting pitching continues to be a major concern. Why they spent $10.5 million on Chapman with so many other areas of need is still something, that needs explanation but of course neither Cherington nor Nutting believe fans matter.
I’m pretty sure you can find plenty of fans from the other NLC teams who think their team went backwards, too.
Cubs have lost Stroman and Bellinger.
Brewers have lost Burnes and Woodruff.
Cincy has worse SP than Pirates and hasn’t acquired anyone of note.
Cards signed 3 SP’s, with one of them having the highest ERA in MLB last year, and another who led the league in HR’s allowed.
Don’t make these teams out to be the Dodgers.
And it's not just the lack of impact moves by Cherington, but that the NL Central and the NL overall seem to have gotten stronger. We could be as good or better talent-wise than last year and not win as many games. To cherry-pick, we'll be hard-pressed to go 17-9 against the Reds and Cards. OTOH, maybe we'll do better against the Brewers and Cubs (8-18 last year).
73 might be a little light, but not by much. Agree with the comments above that they have a lot of unknowns, and this offseason has been a missed opportunity to address those unknowns. It’s not hard to see how a slightly different approach could’ve gotten them into the upper 70’s for a projection.
so the twitter guy who heard rumblings of the Perez singing before it happened has heard rumblings of us trading an IF to the Giants.
Please be Alika for the younger Bednar.
Would also throw nicky g or bae in a heart beat
I'd throw in both. We got Jebb on the horizon. Imagine the marketing with two Pittsburgh guys in the organization. If they still market.
Jebb!
Can Jebb hit a curve? If not let's start the make over today. My early comp without ever seeing him play and having no idea about mechanics is Dustin Pedroia. Talk amongst yourselves. I'm getting verklempt.
I like the cut of his Jebb
ha, nice.
Without a major economical change the Pirates will never have a Kershaw or Altuve—a star player who plays the majority of their career in Pittsburgh. Never. ☹️
Reynolds is going to play nearly his whole career in Pittsburgh, Ke'Bryan might. I'd bet on Bednar too.
I gotta say I'm shocked Bednar is still a Pirate. I see no way this team is going to pay Chapman $10 mill to pitch 40-50 innings as a set up guy. Bednar should start packing now. ;)
I'm sure one of the below average guys they start daily wouldn't mind play all of their career there. A star? Doubt it.
I’m not too worried about that. I’ll take winning over anything else. Hell, the Yankees kicked Babe Ruth out the door.
Should that be 73-89? Regardless, I would not be surprised if it was 73-89 or 89-73 - IMO, there is that much unknown at the present time. I like what the Pirates have in place on this date - they had a team oriented season in 2023 and if they can maintain that positivity, there is no reason to think they could not threaten a 90 win season.
Suwinski, Reynolds, and Hayes all had big seasons in '23, and the return of Oneil Cruz could be huge. Also, the year of exposure to MLB pitching for Peguero, Bae, Triolo, and Davis should pay dividends also. The biggest question mark is the Rotation, but the numbers of qualified middle relievers readily available could provide a crutch over the first few months.
I can see a world where the offense and bullpen are above average......I just see no way the rotation is going to pull off just being average. We have Keller and a bunch of train wrecks and our developmental history tells us the guys that come up to save the day will be bad also.
I expect all of my hair to grow back before this 2024 team wins 89 games.
Yes, unless Ben has a big move or two left, or is willing to promote Jones and Skenes (and they earn the promotion) well before Super Two, 89 wins would be shocking.
But, to be optimistic, I could see this team being right around .500, maybe slightly above. Is that enough to keep things interesting? We're set up to be better in the second half so may be well out of contention before we start playing winning baseball (similar to last year, but without the super-hot start and the horrible May and June).
This season is a total toss up, they look like a 70 win team as currently constructed. Which way the team breaks from there depends a lot on the starting pitching. Going by the theory of you win a third, you lose a third, and the other 54 games is what determines the outcome. If the pitching holds up through June, we could very well be looking at an 80 plus win team.
Here's the thing. I think Gonzalez and Perez could be OK, but neither guy misses a ton of bats. The only guy in the rotation who does miss bats regularly is Keller, so the performance of the starting pitching will depend in large part upon team defense. It is not the pitching that will doom them so much as the lack of coherent team defense. They just don't have and never have a coherent team design. If you are going to bring in guys like Tellez, then you have to have pitchers who miss bats. If you are going to bring in guys like Gonzalez, then you need solid defense, especially up-the-middle.
Missing bats isn't the be all end all. I would argue missing the fat part of the bat can be equally effective.
Absolutely, it can, but only if there is competent fielding behind the pitcher.
I’m not sure these arms can do that either. Maybe it’s cause I had pasta last night, but I expect a healthy diet of meatballs by this staff.
That’s a good point, and one that is frustrating. Defense, on the whole, ain’t that expensive. Especially when comparing it to FA pitching. Defense is an easier way to improve the team; I’d much rather have them sign Kiermaier to play center, move Jack to right (two plus defenders at those positions) and shift guys around accordingly. But they didn’t.
You know what ole Whitey Herzog said when they asked him why he cared so much about speed and defense and didn't put much emphasis on power. Whitey said, "because its cheap."
And also it’s the only factor you can use on offense and defense.
But they need Joe at first base? We can’t be so greedy as to think they’d sign an expensive CFer and a first baseman without platoon splits! I suppose they have Olivares?
And Cutch.
I don’t know how much I want him playing the field though? I also think they need to be sure to give him plenty of rest days to keep him fresh and effective. They really rode him hard last year out of necessity. It’d be nice to avoid that.
Both the Olivares and Tellez seemed like early signings to me. With all of the unsigned players out there, they seemed like they could possibly be the last pieces to the puzzle. Instead they are blocking some potential guys for us to sign at this point.
The defensive construction behind a contact heavy staff is likely to cause some issues for them, I fully agree. Unfortunately, that was probably going to be the hardest thing for them to fix. They aren’t moving Cruz off shortstop, Henry catching is going to cause a hit, and CF was going to be too rich in prospects/dollars to find a semi-permanent fix. Even someone like Kiermaier, who would’ve helped the offense too, would be a problematic fit on the roster with Suwinski.
They’ve basically already made their bed by doubling down on questionable at best defenders at two of the most important positions (Cruz and Davis). And Kiermaier wouldn’t be a problematic fit with Jack because you still have Joe to be a platoon half.
Obviously Cruz is not your traditional shortstop. With his speed, he has stolen several bloops that coundn't have been hits. He has robbed a few line drives because of his height and has an arm like a cannon.
Now as far as his accuracy, fielding a ground ball and turning a double play, I'm guessing he is below average.
Other than the most important two things, he’s good at short! And who knows how he’ll look post injury.
I’m looking at it in the most none mathematical way possible, we feasted on the Ratbirds last year and now they went ahead and got better, that’s 4-5 wins less than last year….ok there was a bit of 1st grade math there…
I WAS TOLD THERE WOULD BE NO MATH INVOLVED.
It was the kind of math that we could use our fingers.
There's not just lies, dam lies and statistics.
I’m in agreement with you about the quality depth of the bullpen mitigating, to a great degree, the shallow state of the rotation. Especially early in the season when arms are fresh and temperatures are lower.
Conversely, the offense has me more than a bit anxious. In order for Pirates to score a half a run more per game, which is about what they need to be a viable offensive club, they’re going to need several career years from middle of the order bats.
Obviously Zips and Pecota computer projections are skeptical of this scenario.
Hearing good things on Roansy. Fastball is back to 2022. Also Ortiz in better shape. These two things would go a long way towards making the starting rotation competitive. Also check out Rowdy's first half pre injury. Think we would all want that... lots to watch this spring!
I love hearing the Roansy report especially.
need Cueto to show these two dudes the ropes
Would prefer Bauer on a two year contract with an option.
He’s BLACKBALLED!
Give him a cheap one year deal with a team option for years 2 and 3, then I'm game.
Have the first year low enough that if any bullcrap shows up, he'll just up and disappear like a fart in the wind.
100% agree with you on the state of the offense which makes their offseason approach all the more aggravating. Their approach is essentially Cruz or bust.
i´m fine with that
Cruz will carry our team with just a flick of his wrists
I wish we locked him up while he was hurt, assuming his asking price wouldn't have been as high. After looking at Witt's contract, I doubt we will be able to sign him if he the star we are hoping for.
They could probably still sign him for something far less than Witt but they’ll have to take the risk now. Come July, if he’s on pace for a 6 WAR season that price will shoot up astronomically.
if that dude realizes that he can take ten percent off the might of his swing and it will still will put the ball over the fence, then his strikeouts will plummet
year before last, we did not see many of those flick home runs but his minor league highlights are full of them
we do not talk about O´neil Cruz enough - he is the story of our team for sure
If there’s any talent I’m comfortable betting on it’s him. He’s as good of a prospect that they’ve had since maybe Bonds. But still, that’s a lot of unnecessary pressure to put on a 25 year old with 410 career plate appearances, coming off major surgery.
You said that much better than I did. I was trying to be optimistic about the pitching in the early part of the season but it ain't easy.
It might be a whole run more per game now given their projected rotation…I just don’t see how their rotation can be set. I mean, I was way more optimistic going into 2023, and 2024 was supposed to be THE YEAR.