All the teams that I have a rational or irrational dislike for are out. And while I couldn't watch much baseball over the weekend, I'm looking forward to the remainder of the postseason. And yes the NL couldn't ask for more intense divisional series.
Really absurd stuff watching them have to pause the game because LA fans were throwing stuff at Padres players, if any of those fans were caught they should be banned for life
Nothing new for Dodgers fans. Some Giants fan was permanently brain damaged after getting jumped by a Dodgers fan after a game a few years back in the parking lot at Dodgers Stadium.
A few very interesting games - glad to see the Phillies come back after their BP imploded AGAIN. Maybe the Pirates can work another trade like the one that brought Bailey Falter to the Pirates.
Too quiet for the FO? When I read Cherington's quotes from his press conference, there was a lot of nonsense about progress and how because they've helped a hitter or two, they know what works. I was left thinking that Cherington is justifying their processes by focusing on exceptions rather than the rule. As long as we have the occasional Bart, it's all good! So maybe it's better if they stay quiet :)
No doubt that Cruz's improvement against lefties was encouraging. But every organization can single out success stories as Cherington did with the success that came from Bart changing his launch angle and now you're doing with Cruz. The key is having enough success stories that that becomes the expectation rather than the exception.
We're not there yet (if we were, Haines would still be in a job) but '25 presents an opportunity with Bae, Cook, Davis, BDLC (he doesn't quite fit in this group), Gonzales, Peguero, Rodriguez, Suwinski, Triolo, and Yorke (and probably a few others). Obviously they won't all work out, but we need at least 3-4 from this group to show they can be average or better. If all we can point to is 1-2 of this group making significant progress in '25, we almost surely need to move on from Cherington.
Slight clarification--"average or better". I'm thinking that we need ~2 WAR each, which iirc is about average, from at least three of those players. Hopefully at least one rises to the level of better than average. As a point of reference, our old friend Jordy Mercer gave us average production in 2013-2014 and that seems achievable by at least several of those on my list.
Still a bit of a tall order but doable. Peguero might actually be the linchpin at SS as many of those others are duplicative.
NickyG is basically there already with a full season of at bats and Jack has been that guy in the past, but I think Endy and Davis will have trouble getting enough playing time unless Bart collapses or gets injured.
Maybe a defense-heavy Triolo at 3B if Ke is toast or Nicke Yorke in an outfield corner?
Besides being tone deaf, his quotes conveyed something concerning to me that I’ve been wondering about for a little while. I read a piece in the Athletic over the weekend about Matt Quatraro and it had a lot of information about how the Royals brain trust operates: openness to new information, challenging assumptions, collective decision making, etc. I suspect we don’t operate that way. When you read quotes like those from Ben, it doesn’t sound like someone particularly open to changes, outside information, having their thought process challenged, etc. If you think you have it all figured out because Joey Bart, when you have a bottom ranked offense for the entirety of your tenure, that’s telling.
If you've watched how Quatraro has managed the bullpen this off-season, you realize that Shelton could never make that many correct decisions in a row. Also, the baserunning... spot on... for KC, especially... but also for a lot of these teams in the playoffs. The Pirates have no chance to run the bases as well as most of these playoff teams, or if they do, we have seen no sign of that these past 4 years.
My hope for Cherington is that he brings in, or continues to bring in since I think Sarah Gelles was such a move, personnel from successful organizations to challenge what they're doing. Beyond Gelles, replacing the directors of pro scouting and of research and development may help.
Hopefully Cherington is just blustering for public consumption and they do plan changes as you’re describing, led by Gelles and some of the new staff. What they did at the trade deadline doesn’t give me a ton of optimism though. I’ll try to approach this offseason with an open mind
I'm guessing, and hoping, that the trade deadline results are related to the change in the director of professional scouting. Maybe making the case for BDLC was the last straw for the former director.
I seem to recall there was reporting that the analytical guys wanted BDLC too? If true, that’s something Gelles might be able to help with. Assuming they misjudged BDLC of course, and it wasn’t bad luck or an approach issue. I know commenters here are somewhat divided on that topic.
This isn’t a full throated endorsement of KC. KC botched their rebuild. They also appear to have been helped a lot more by the White Sox than the Tigers were. But, they appear to be trying to move on from the mistakes of the end of Dayton Moore’s tenure, which their current GM was a part of. I don’t see any recognition of failure or acknowledgment that changes are needed from our front office beyond minor moves. Aside from your apt point about BWJ and Salvy, you can’t ignore that they put together a cohesive roster which ranked second in Fangraphs FPA statistic. Despite leaving a lot on the table offensively, we ranked 24th in this statistic. If you want to build around pitching you have to at least put a defense around it.
I disagree that they botched the rebuild. This is the rebuild: Witt, Paquantino, Massey, Garcia, Isbel, Melendez, Zerpa, Bubic, Singer. They missed on a couple of guys like Pratto and Waters (although I haven't given up all hope on Waters yet), but that is to be expected. The problem was not the rebuild; it was expecting a bunch of 22 year-old prospects to come in and light up the league as rookies. That just doesn't happen. The only real mistake they made, and it is hard to call it a mistake now, is panicking when Melendez struggled his first year in AA and signing Perez to a long-term deal.
Picollo has done a nice job bringing in some pitching and getting Ragans, but he also waived Rooker (his first move as GM) and O'Hearn, so he has lost as much talent as he has acquired.
Think of the talent they could have if they traded Merrifield in particular, at peak value. They hung onto a lot of guys way too long, and their pitching development was widely panned. Somebody like Ragans wouldn’t have happened prior to these changes.
They have the remains of Yuli Gurriel starting @ 1b. Who I forgot existed until I tuned into one of their playoff games. They have holes in the OF and 2b. Not exactly a cohesive roster.
At the end of the day, Royals illustrate it's pretty easy to get into the playoffs with starting pitching.
Isn't it at least a little funny how fans seem more interested in crafting some grand strategic vision as explanation for success of the Tigers and Royals instead of the simple fact that so much parity existing in baseball means nearly any club's playoff hopes can swing wildly from one year to the next?
Gurriel happened because of an injury, so that’s unfair. Pasquatino is a hell of a ball player.
The outfield they started in the last playoff game was around -1 FPA for the season. The outfield we’d have likely started had we made the playoffs is approximately -19.
Burrows is going to be traded.
#HugWatch
#HotStove
Burrows sure looked good on that last start of the season
Bummer about Burrows.
NL is a real toss up but it would be a hell of an upset for Yanks not to walk into the World Series.
All the teams that I have a rational or irrational dislike for are out. And while I couldn't watch much baseball over the weekend, I'm looking forward to the remainder of the postseason. And yes the NL couldn't ask for more intense divisional series.
I’m not sure about that. I think the Guardians bullpen advantage is so huge, it may offset all the other disadvantages combined.
Relatively speaking, of course. Even a 7-game series is usually little more than a coin flip.
But in terms of playoff matchups, it doesn't get much more lopsided than this.
Some fantastic theatre going on in the NLDS'
That Detroit team might be the weakest team I can remember in the playoffs.
I’ll take 2023 Marlins for that one.
2023 Miami marlins Pythagorean 75-87
Tigers pythagorean 85-77
Really absurd stuff watching them have to pause the game because LA fans were throwing stuff at Padres players, if any of those fans were caught they should be banned for life
Nothing new for Dodgers fans. Some Giants fan was permanently brain damaged after getting jumped by a Dodgers fan after a game a few years back in the parking lot at Dodgers Stadium.
Oh youre right, I am remembering that now
A few very interesting games - glad to see the Phillies come back after their BP imploded AGAIN. Maybe the Pirates can work another trade like the one that brought Bailey Falter to the Pirates.
Way too quiet in the Pirate front office?
Thanks for the info on the AFL.
Too quiet for the FO? When I read Cherington's quotes from his press conference, there was a lot of nonsense about progress and how because they've helped a hitter or two, they know what works. I was left thinking that Cherington is justifying their processes by focusing on exceptions rather than the rule. As long as we have the occasional Bart, it's all good! So maybe it's better if they stay quiet :)
Do you think BC believes the BS he’s selling? I don’t.
I think he knows if he was employed anywhere else he would’ve been axed by now.
What they did with Cruz vs lefties is nothing to dismiss.
No doubt that Cruz's improvement against lefties was encouraging. But every organization can single out success stories as Cherington did with the success that came from Bart changing his launch angle and now you're doing with Cruz. The key is having enough success stories that that becomes the expectation rather than the exception.
We're not there yet (if we were, Haines would still be in a job) but '25 presents an opportunity with Bae, Cook, Davis, BDLC (he doesn't quite fit in this group), Gonzales, Peguero, Rodriguez, Suwinski, Triolo, and Yorke (and probably a few others). Obviously they won't all work out, but we need at least 3-4 from this group to show they can be average or better. If all we can point to is 1-2 of this group making significant progress in '25, we almost surely need to move on from Cherington.
Getting 3-4 above average hitters out of that group would be an insanely high hit rate.
You're either overvaluing some very marginal prospects or a little optimistic on what even the best orgs can do in development.
Slight clarification--"average or better". I'm thinking that we need ~2 WAR each, which iirc is about average, from at least three of those players. Hopefully at least one rises to the level of better than average. As a point of reference, our old friend Jordy Mercer gave us average production in 2013-2014 and that seems achievable by at least several of those on my list.
Ah, gotcha buddy.
Still a bit of a tall order but doable. Peguero might actually be the linchpin at SS as many of those others are duplicative.
NickyG is basically there already with a full season of at bats and Jack has been that guy in the past, but I think Endy and Davis will have trouble getting enough playing time unless Bart collapses or gets injured.
Maybe a defense-heavy Triolo at 3B if Ke is toast or Nicke Yorke in an outfield corner?
Besides being tone deaf, his quotes conveyed something concerning to me that I’ve been wondering about for a little while. I read a piece in the Athletic over the weekend about Matt Quatraro and it had a lot of information about how the Royals brain trust operates: openness to new information, challenging assumptions, collective decision making, etc. I suspect we don’t operate that way. When you read quotes like those from Ben, it doesn’t sound like someone particularly open to changes, outside information, having their thought process challenged, etc. If you think you have it all figured out because Joey Bart, when you have a bottom ranked offense for the entirety of your tenure, that’s telling.
If you've watched how Quatraro has managed the bullpen this off-season, you realize that Shelton could never make that many correct decisions in a row. Also, the baserunning... spot on... for KC, especially... but also for a lot of these teams in the playoffs. The Pirates have no chance to run the bases as well as most of these playoff teams, or if they do, we have seen no sign of that these past 4 years.
My hope for Cherington is that he brings in, or continues to bring in since I think Sarah Gelles was such a move, personnel from successful organizations to challenge what they're doing. Beyond Gelles, replacing the directors of pro scouting and of research and development may help.
Hopefully Cherington is just blustering for public consumption and they do plan changes as you’re describing, led by Gelles and some of the new staff. What they did at the trade deadline doesn’t give me a ton of optimism though. I’ll try to approach this offseason with an open mind
I'm guessing, and hoping, that the trade deadline results are related to the change in the director of professional scouting. Maybe making the case for BDLC was the last straw for the former director.
I seem to recall there was reporting that the analytical guys wanted BDLC too? If true, that’s something Gelles might be able to help with. Assuming they misjudged BDLC of course, and it wasn’t bad luck or an approach issue. I know commenters here are somewhat divided on that topic.
Remove Witt and Sal from KC's lineup and let me know the slash line.
This isn’t a full throated endorsement of KC. KC botched their rebuild. They also appear to have been helped a lot more by the White Sox than the Tigers were. But, they appear to be trying to move on from the mistakes of the end of Dayton Moore’s tenure, which their current GM was a part of. I don’t see any recognition of failure or acknowledgment that changes are needed from our front office beyond minor moves. Aside from your apt point about BWJ and Salvy, you can’t ignore that they put together a cohesive roster which ranked second in Fangraphs FPA statistic. Despite leaving a lot on the table offensively, we ranked 24th in this statistic. If you want to build around pitching you have to at least put a defense around it.
I disagree that they botched the rebuild. This is the rebuild: Witt, Paquantino, Massey, Garcia, Isbel, Melendez, Zerpa, Bubic, Singer. They missed on a couple of guys like Pratto and Waters (although I haven't given up all hope on Waters yet), but that is to be expected. The problem was not the rebuild; it was expecting a bunch of 22 year-old prospects to come in and light up the league as rookies. That just doesn't happen. The only real mistake they made, and it is hard to call it a mistake now, is panicking when Melendez struggled his first year in AA and signing Perez to a long-term deal.
Picollo has done a nice job bringing in some pitching and getting Ragans, but he also waived Rooker (his first move as GM) and O'Hearn, so he has lost as much talent as he has acquired.
You just listed five shitty hitters and Bobby Witt.
Be honest.
They got 8 WAR from two mid-30 starting pitchers on free agent deals and otherwise would not have even sniffed the playoffs.
Think of the talent they could have if they traded Merrifield in particular, at peak value. They hung onto a lot of guys way too long, and their pitching development was widely panned. Somebody like Ragans wouldn’t have happened prior to these changes.
They have the remains of Yuli Gurriel starting @ 1b. Who I forgot existed until I tuned into one of their playoff games. They have holes in the OF and 2b. Not exactly a cohesive roster.
At the end of the day, Royals illustrate it's pretty easy to get into the playoffs with starting pitching.
Isn't it at least a little funny how fans seem more interested in crafting some grand strategic vision as explanation for success of the Tigers and Royals instead of the simple fact that so much parity existing in baseball means nearly any club's playoff hopes can swing wildly from one year to the next?
Gurriel happened because of an injury, so that’s unfair. Pasquatino is a hell of a ball player.
The outfield they started in the last playoff game was around -1 FPA for the season. The outfield we’d have likely started had we made the playoffs is approximately -19.
Just for S&G - Pirates rankings of 30 MLB Teams, BC/DS ERA:
2024 Batting 26th Pitching 13th 76-86
2023 Batting 22nd Pitching 23rd 76-86
2022 Batting 27th Pitching 25th 62-100
2021 Batting 29th Pitching 28th 61-101
2020 Batting 28th Pitching 26th 19-41
Overall record of 294-414, .415 Winning Percentage
Is this batting average and ERA?
Not that it much matters. Using any stat will probably tell the same sad story.
I go to Leaders on Fangraphs, pick Batting and hit Team when the screen appears.
Same process with Pitching.