Doesn’t really mean much, but Stumpf is forecasting an opening day rotation of Keller, Perez, Gonzalez, Roansy and Falter. In year five of a rebuild, that’s beyond pathetic. A grade of “F” for BC’s performance doesn’t remotely convey the level of failure.
excited about the current crop of SPs slated to start at AA. Solometo, Chandler, Skenes, Ashcraft, Harrington. Outside of Skenes, who I think we’re all hoping can debut this year. I’m hoping for Jared Jones like seasons out of these guys. 150+ innings, make it to AAA and keep your ERA in the 3s/low-4s. will make 2025 debuts very exciting
I must be prematurely aging into the yelling at kids on my lawn crowd because I cannot get over how weak the current crop of minor leaguers feels to me.
I don't think it is yelling at kids on the lawn to notice that outside of three or maybe 4 pitching prospects and Johnson, there really isn't much in the Pirates system, especially when you compare their second tier prospects to those in other systems. The Pirates' system is deep in lottery tickets, but not solid prospects. The lack of anything significant from Latin America above the age of 19 is not helping matters (along with the struggles of every draft pick who has appeared in Pittsburgh).
And my only salve for the current state of my favorite clubs system is how equally mid the rest of the league feels, too. I think I probably got greedy with the quality of player that came through the late teens into the early 20s.
Well... I would say that the current generation of U.S.-born players is probably not up to the level of prior generations... because kids play with video games and cell phones and not as many take up baseball. So, if one looks only at U.S.-born players, then I would agree with you. However, the overall talent pool is probably not less because of the growing popularity of the sport in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Latin America.
Many of they players that would have filled out prospect lists are now playing in the Japanese league and the Korean league and will filter in via international free agency. Unfortunately the Pirates seem to have little access to these talent pools because they are unwilling to spend on international free agents and they have failed for 30 years and 4 GMs to produce a high-tier Latin American scouting program.
Yes. The failures in Latin America is glaring. Other teams have their Elly De La Cruz’s and Francisco Alvarez’s and Eury Perez’s. And here we are just hoping Shalin Polanco or Tony Blanco Jr turns into a viable prospect.
To some degree I feel like we've tried to backfill for previous failures, first trading for Cruz and more recently for Severino and Suero.
It's also kind of interesting to think that we'll spend ~$7MM on IFA's and none of the guys we sign will likely ever make an impact. The same will be true next year and the year after. Yet, we seem unwilling to commit a similar amount over a 3-4 period to someone who could be a mid-rotation starter and almost certainly have an impact. And that mid-rotation starter could be traded in his final year for someone like a Suero...
I'm all for investing in IFAs and sometimes you hit the jackpot (I've been excited about Shim since reading the initial reports). It just seems that there is a bit of a gap in logic when it comes to expected return on investment--if we're so willing to spend on longshots (and not just wrt IFAs but also the draft), why does it seem that we're so unwilling to do something like a $32MM/4 year deal for a mid-rotation SP?
8 million a year isn’t getting a mid rotation starter. That’s getting a lotto ticket - Perez. You need to more than double that number to get what your looking for. You got guys like Montas getting 16 million as a bounce back candidate.
The Jays just agreed with Rodriguez for an AAV of $8MM per year, and while there's a lot of possible outcomes, he certainly has the chance to be a mid-rotation starter. But you're right that many others who likely will be nothing more than mid-rotation starters are signing for $12-18MM. In many cases, teams seem to be paying for upside (e.g., Severino, Flaherty, Wacha, Giolito) despite guys being pretty far removed from when they were TOR starters.
Idk who sees Rodriguez as anything but an expensive lottery ticket. The guy didn’t really even pitch last year, let alone in MLB. Most the guys you named haven’t been mid rotation pitchers for years or ever in their career. Pitching is very expensive in recent years.... guess that’s why the Pirates try to get them young?
In some ways it makes sense to sign players like Rich Hill or Carlos Santana and then move those players for former IFAs who have already received their bonus and for whom there is a lot more data available.
Day got a little better after reading that comment. Scrubs is a derogatory term that isn't used enough these days. TLC didn't have time for them and neither do I.
Crazy thing is we do. My family goes throughout Western NC, Upstate SC, and GA and hikes to waterfalls. And cold plunge if it's winter. Call it the "F TLC tour". Grew up along the Allegheny River. I'm not sticking to the river or lakes that I was used to.
Lists are fun to look at, and certainly are great for discussion, but really are meaningless. What is meaningful is the Pirates preparing their prospects to be ready to contribute when called up. You know like the good teams do.
Probably cause we're so used to majority of prospects turning out badly that we see Top 100 lists and think, "These guys have to be good, right? If National outlets think they're good, the Pirates can't mess them up, right? RIGHT???????"
But, almost the entire present lineup has been Pirate trained, and they did very well last year in spite of a lack of dependable starting pitching, and the absence of Oneil Cruz. Even the guys we got in trade were Pirate Trained at least through AA and AAA, if not all the way through like Oneil Cruz, or almost all the way, like Peguero.
In a previous subject I listed the 2022 and 2023 numbers of what I consider our 3 team leaders Reynolds, Hayes, and Suwinski. Very good improvements from all in 2023 compared to their 2022 numbers - a good place to start from in 2024, I hope! And getting Cruz back at SS and in the middle of the order, should be a major improvement.
I appreciate your glass half full outlook on the roster. Hopefully you’re correct and the players you mentioned, and others, will continue to trend in the right direction.
The problem is Pirates young studs rarely if ever arrive in Pittsburgh ready to meet the challenge of MLB. How much of Davis’, Endy’s, Ortiz’s, Suwinski’s, Peguero’s, Cruz’s, etc… present will be sacrificed to development while in MLB?
Who in the BC era has arrived and done as well as hoped for in the 1st year? Triolo is about the only one I can think of. Otherwise it’s different degrees of disappointment.
Given ownership’s unwillingness to take risks by signing FA’s and making trades to improve 26-man roster in a meaningful manner, development has to be better if Pirates ever hope to have a window of contention.
Yes and no. If we look at second half splits (min 50 PAs and ranked by WAR), Key lead the way with a 129 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. That's great. If his bat did finally take a step forward, that's fantastic. Second place is Triolo, 124 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR, but I'm not sure we can expect him to sustain a .429 BABIP, while also the fact he has a shade under 30% k-rate. Reynolds third (111 wRC+ and 1.1 WAR) who I think we can at least generally count on. Joe fourth (110 wRC+ and 1.0 WAR), which would be splitting hairs if we're to call him "Pirate trained". Fifth is Endy who is out for year. Sixth is Jack, whose second half wasn't nearly as prolific (89 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR). Delay seventh, whose value is primarily defense (75 wRC+ and 0.4 WAR), Andujar eighth, who is no longer with team, Palacios ninth (94 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR), top 10 rounded out by Cutch (102 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR).
On pitching side (dropped to 20 IP and ranked by WAR to incorporate some relievers), you obviously start with Keller and his 5.59 ERA second half and 0.8 WAR. second is Bednar (2.81 ERA and 0.7 WAR), third is Holderman (4.00 ERA and 0.7 WAR), fourth is Oviedo (3.72 ERA and 0.6 WAR) who is out for season, fifth is Borucki (1.64 ERA and 0.5 WAR), sixth is Mlodzinski (2.22 ERA and 0.4 WAR), seventh is Jackson (4.33 ERA and 0.4 WAR) who is gone, eighth is Hatch (4.03 ERA and 0.2 WAR) who is gone, ninth is Hill (4.71 and 0.2 WAR) who is gone, and tenth is Bido (7.18 ERA and 0.2 WAR) who is gone.
So, from that 20 players alone, seven are gone or out for the season. Delay may or may not begin on MLB roster. Of the 12 remaining, you could make the case all five pitchers were "Pirate trained", though Bednar, Holderman, and Borucki all had big league experience prior to joining the Pirates organization. They found their success in the Pirates organization, which we'll attribute Keller to being "fixed" by the current regime. Idk if they can claim Joe. Reynolds wasn't developed by the current regime, nor Cutch. So, you can give them Tree and Jack. Then in the same fashion as Keller, I'll give you Key, throwing in Palacios as a sweetener.
Of the 20 most productive players in the second half, you have a mid-rotation starter, four bullpen arms, a "center fielder", and two bench bats that I'd say were "Pirate trained". Then unfortunately, the likes of Cruz and Peggy are TBD.
Good numbers, but I will go with mine for the 3 Leaders and hope they can continue to put up the impressive numbers and affect change by their leadership. Also hoping that Oneil Cruz joins that group by repeating his 744 OPS from 2022 or better, and maintain good defense at SS. With a solid Rotation I think the Pirates had enough offensively and defensively to win more games last year - just 5 more wins would have put them at .500 and contending for the playoffs.
Starting Pitching is a quagmire right now. We have a number of "our" top SP prospects who need to become usable as SP's or RP's at the MLB level, or pitch well enough to be tradeable.
Idk, it's really just convoluted. Did they have good seasons? Sure. Were they impressive? No. Affect change by their leadership? I mean, we already had Keller, B-Rey, then added Cutch and Santana last year as "leaders". Leadership would be Cruz coming out and ripping the cover off the ball on his way to a 5-6 WAR season. That's really what the Pirates NEED. They don't any of the superlatives, they need Cruz to hit the shit out of the ball, and B-Rey to find his 2021 6 WAR-self.
In part cause I felt there was a lot of change from the first half to second half in terms of personnel. The second half had more of the players expected to provide the so-called "improvements", and "present lineup" as emjay put it. The full season vs half season isn't really relevant in terms of Keller, B-Rey, Holderman, Bednar, and to some degree Jack. But in relevance to how players performed in relation to those five. Jack I still worry a little about cause May through end of season Jack was offensively average.
Pirates 2024 opening day roster could have, at most, 14 players that opened on the 2023 roster.
But to your point, it was the kids who did not perform in the 2nd half. The *core* did their part, but the kids struggled badly. I'm not buying into JT's babip luck...It's just not sustainable. He needs that k rate to be in the low 20's.
Congrats on your presentation on the podcast - very informative and enjoyable. I especially appreciated the take of all three on Jared Jones and the hope that he would see MLB in 2024 whether as a SP or to get his feet wet as a RP.
The Pirates were hoping that Priester would be that positive first step into the future, but I think the experience he received at the MLB level in 2023 will help him develop into a strong #4 or #5 SP. I am counting on seeing a lot of Ortiz, Jones, and Mlodzinski as RP/SP's in '24, paving the way for adds from the group that will be at AA/AAA this year.
Doesn’t really mean much, but Stumpf is forecasting an opening day rotation of Keller, Perez, Gonzalez, Roansy and Falter. In year five of a rebuild, that’s beyond pathetic. A grade of “F” for BC’s performance doesn’t remotely convey the level of failure.
They can't in good faith start with Falter in the rotation. I mean, wtf are we doing?
excited about the current crop of SPs slated to start at AA. Solometo, Chandler, Skenes, Ashcraft, Harrington. Outside of Skenes, who I think we’re all hoping can debut this year. I’m hoping for Jared Jones like seasons out of these guys. 150+ innings, make it to AAA and keep your ERA in the 3s/low-4s. will make 2025 debuts very exciting
I must be prematurely aging into the yelling at kids on my lawn crowd because I cannot get over how weak the current crop of minor leaguers feels to me.
Just Pirates or throughout MLB?
Throughout MLB!
I don't think it is yelling at kids on the lawn to notice that outside of three or maybe 4 pitching prospects and Johnson, there really isn't much in the Pirates system, especially when you compare their second tier prospects to those in other systems. The Pirates' system is deep in lottery tickets, but not solid prospects. The lack of anything significant from Latin America above the age of 19 is not helping matters (along with the struggles of every draft pick who has appeared in Pittsburgh).
And my only salve for the current state of my favorite clubs system is how equally mid the rest of the league feels, too. I think I probably got greedy with the quality of player that came through the late teens into the early 20s.
Well... I would say that the current generation of U.S.-born players is probably not up to the level of prior generations... because kids play with video games and cell phones and not as many take up baseball. So, if one looks only at U.S.-born players, then I would agree with you. However, the overall talent pool is probably not less because of the growing popularity of the sport in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Latin America.
Many of they players that would have filled out prospect lists are now playing in the Japanese league and the Korean league and will filter in via international free agency. Unfortunately the Pirates seem to have little access to these talent pools because they are unwilling to spend on international free agents and they have failed for 30 years and 4 GMs to produce a high-tier Latin American scouting program.
Yes. The failures in Latin America is glaring. Other teams have their Elly De La Cruz’s and Francisco Alvarez’s and Eury Perez’s. And here we are just hoping Shalin Polanco or Tony Blanco Jr turns into a viable prospect.
To some degree I feel like we've tried to backfill for previous failures, first trading for Cruz and more recently for Severino and Suero.
It's also kind of interesting to think that we'll spend ~$7MM on IFA's and none of the guys we sign will likely ever make an impact. The same will be true next year and the year after. Yet, we seem unwilling to commit a similar amount over a 3-4 period to someone who could be a mid-rotation starter and almost certainly have an impact. And that mid-rotation starter could be traded in his final year for someone like a Suero...
I'm all for investing in IFAs and sometimes you hit the jackpot (I've been excited about Shim since reading the initial reports). It just seems that there is a bit of a gap in logic when it comes to expected return on investment--if we're so willing to spend on longshots (and not just wrt IFAs but also the draft), why does it seem that we're so unwilling to do something like a $32MM/4 year deal for a mid-rotation SP?
8 million a year isn’t getting a mid rotation starter. That’s getting a lotto ticket - Perez. You need to more than double that number to get what your looking for. You got guys like Montas getting 16 million as a bounce back candidate.
The Jays just agreed with Rodriguez for an AAV of $8MM per year, and while there's a lot of possible outcomes, he certainly has the chance to be a mid-rotation starter. But you're right that many others who likely will be nothing more than mid-rotation starters are signing for $12-18MM. In many cases, teams seem to be paying for upside (e.g., Severino, Flaherty, Wacha, Giolito) despite guys being pretty far removed from when they were TOR starters.
Idk who sees Rodriguez as anything but an expensive lottery ticket. The guy didn’t really even pitch last year, let alone in MLB. Most the guys you named haven’t been mid rotation pitchers for years or ever in their career. Pitching is very expensive in recent years.... guess that’s why the Pirates try to get them young?
Peguero and Eddy Yean as well. Prob the first from BC to try and emulate what NH did with Cruz.
In some ways it makes sense to sign players like Rich Hill or Carlos Santana and then move those players for former IFAs who have already received their bonus and for whom there is a lot more data available.
It's the outside the box thinking that small market GMs need to do.
Clearly shows these scrubs didnt walk uphill both ways going to school
Day got a little better after reading that comment. Scrubs is a derogatory term that isn't used enough these days. TLC didn't have time for them and neither do I.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrLequ6dUdM
I’m actually dying laughing from this. A++++ comment lol
Jus don't go chasing waterfalls...
Crazy thing is we do. My family goes throughout Western NC, Upstate SC, and GA and hikes to waterfalls. And cold plunge if it's winter. Call it the "F TLC tour". Grew up along the Allegheny River. I'm not sticking to the river or lakes that I was used to.
Pounding the table because BA has jared jones exactly 5 spots too low from a really nice ranking. That is all
Niiicccceeeee
We just need some quick graduations and we can get there lol
Lists are fun to look at, and certainly are great for discussion, but really are meaningless. What is meaningful is the Pirates preparing their prospects to be ready to contribute when called up. You know like the good teams do.
Probably cause we're so used to majority of prospects turning out badly that we see Top 100 lists and think, "These guys have to be good, right? If National outlets think they're good, the Pirates can't mess them up, right? RIGHT???????"
But, almost the entire present lineup has been Pirate trained, and they did very well last year in spite of a lack of dependable starting pitching, and the absence of Oneil Cruz. Even the guys we got in trade were Pirate Trained at least through AA and AAA, if not all the way through like Oneil Cruz, or almost all the way, like Peguero.
In a previous subject I listed the 2022 and 2023 numbers of what I consider our 3 team leaders Reynolds, Hayes, and Suwinski. Very good improvements from all in 2023 compared to their 2022 numbers - a good place to start from in 2024, I hope! And getting Cruz back at SS and in the middle of the order, should be a major improvement.
I appreciate your glass half full outlook on the roster. Hopefully you’re correct and the players you mentioned, and others, will continue to trend in the right direction.
The problem is Pirates young studs rarely if ever arrive in Pittsburgh ready to meet the challenge of MLB. How much of Davis’, Endy’s, Ortiz’s, Suwinski’s, Peguero’s, Cruz’s, etc… present will be sacrificed to development while in MLB?
Who in the BC era has arrived and done as well as hoped for in the 1st year? Triolo is about the only one I can think of. Otherwise it’s different degrees of disappointment.
Given ownership’s unwillingness to take risks by signing FA’s and making trades to improve 26-man roster in a meaningful manner, development has to be better if Pirates ever hope to have a window of contention.
Yes and no. If we look at second half splits (min 50 PAs and ranked by WAR), Key lead the way with a 129 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. That's great. If his bat did finally take a step forward, that's fantastic. Second place is Triolo, 124 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR, but I'm not sure we can expect him to sustain a .429 BABIP, while also the fact he has a shade under 30% k-rate. Reynolds third (111 wRC+ and 1.1 WAR) who I think we can at least generally count on. Joe fourth (110 wRC+ and 1.0 WAR), which would be splitting hairs if we're to call him "Pirate trained". Fifth is Endy who is out for year. Sixth is Jack, whose second half wasn't nearly as prolific (89 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR). Delay seventh, whose value is primarily defense (75 wRC+ and 0.4 WAR), Andujar eighth, who is no longer with team, Palacios ninth (94 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR), top 10 rounded out by Cutch (102 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR).
On pitching side (dropped to 20 IP and ranked by WAR to incorporate some relievers), you obviously start with Keller and his 5.59 ERA second half and 0.8 WAR. second is Bednar (2.81 ERA and 0.7 WAR), third is Holderman (4.00 ERA and 0.7 WAR), fourth is Oviedo (3.72 ERA and 0.6 WAR) who is out for season, fifth is Borucki (1.64 ERA and 0.5 WAR), sixth is Mlodzinski (2.22 ERA and 0.4 WAR), seventh is Jackson (4.33 ERA and 0.4 WAR) who is gone, eighth is Hatch (4.03 ERA and 0.2 WAR) who is gone, ninth is Hill (4.71 and 0.2 WAR) who is gone, and tenth is Bido (7.18 ERA and 0.2 WAR) who is gone.
So, from that 20 players alone, seven are gone or out for the season. Delay may or may not begin on MLB roster. Of the 12 remaining, you could make the case all five pitchers were "Pirate trained", though Bednar, Holderman, and Borucki all had big league experience prior to joining the Pirates organization. They found their success in the Pirates organization, which we'll attribute Keller to being "fixed" by the current regime. Idk if they can claim Joe. Reynolds wasn't developed by the current regime, nor Cutch. So, you can give them Tree and Jack. Then in the same fashion as Keller, I'll give you Key, throwing in Palacios as a sweetener.
Of the 20 most productive players in the second half, you have a mid-rotation starter, four bullpen arms, a "center fielder", and two bench bats that I'd say were "Pirate trained". Then unfortunately, the likes of Cruz and Peggy are TBD.
Good numbers, but I will go with mine for the 3 Leaders and hope they can continue to put up the impressive numbers and affect change by their leadership. Also hoping that Oneil Cruz joins that group by repeating his 744 OPS from 2022 or better, and maintain good defense at SS. With a solid Rotation I think the Pirates had enough offensively and defensively to win more games last year - just 5 more wins would have put them at .500 and contending for the playoffs.
Starting Pitching is a quagmire right now. We have a number of "our" top SP prospects who need to become usable as SP's or RP's at the MLB level, or pitch well enough to be tradeable.
Idk, it's really just convoluted. Did they have good seasons? Sure. Were they impressive? No. Affect change by their leadership? I mean, we already had Keller, B-Rey, then added Cutch and Santana last year as "leaders". Leadership would be Cruz coming out and ripping the cover off the ball on his way to a 5-6 WAR season. That's really what the Pirates NEED. They don't any of the superlatives, they need Cruz to hit the shit out of the ball, and B-Rey to find his 2021 6 WAR-self.
Honest question - why are you only looking at 2nd half splits and not the season in totality?
In part cause I felt there was a lot of change from the first half to second half in terms of personnel. The second half had more of the players expected to provide the so-called "improvements", and "present lineup" as emjay put it. The full season vs half season isn't really relevant in terms of Keller, B-Rey, Holderman, Bednar, and to some degree Jack. But in relevance to how players performed in relation to those five. Jack I still worry a little about cause May through end of season Jack was offensively average.
Pirates 2024 opening day roster could have, at most, 14 players that opened on the 2023 roster.
But to your point, it was the kids who did not perform in the 2nd half. The *core* did their part, but the kids struggled badly. I'm not buying into JT's babip luck...It's just not sustainable. He needs that k rate to be in the low 20's.
I don't know man...
Jack's 2nd half was weighed down by a really bad August.
July .903 OPS
Aug .529
Sept/Oct .848
Jack showed nice improvement from Year 1 to year 2 and I think there's another level to his game.
"Pirates 2024 opening day roster could have, at most, 14 players that opened on the 2023 roster."
WWCNS? What would Chuck Noll say?
Congrats on your presentation on the podcast - very informative and enjoyable. I especially appreciated the take of all three on Jared Jones and the hope that he would see MLB in 2024 whether as a SP or to get his feet wet as a RP.
The Pirates were hoping that Priester would be that positive first step into the future, but I think the experience he received at the MLB level in 2023 will help him develop into a strong #4 or #5 SP. I am counting on seeing a lot of Ortiz, Jones, and Mlodzinski as RP/SP's in '24, paving the way for adds from the group that will be at AA/AAA this year.