I'd love to run into him someday and just chat. Very interesting guy and the site was must read for any Pirate fan. I loved his approach and content and that is also a shout out to all of his collaborators. Wish him all the best.
Well if that's the case, it definitely is a sad day. Been following his stuff since 2008. His stuff was a daily read during the rebuild up until he went off the deep end with all the music/comic book stuff.
I'm glad that BoD has filled the gap for me. This daily coverage and discussion is much more enjoyable for me then say listening to "Locked on Pirates" and I can't bring myself to read or listen to anything from DK. (I lost all respect for him when he threw that big temper tantrum over the Buccos not signing Sano) Now if only BoD would resurrect the podcast "Two and a Half Gringos"...I miss those episodes!
But back to P2, I do hope that Tim finds a fulfilling next chapter for himself.
Was just waiting on moving into the new house and getting the internet running. Not sure what the exact plan is but will certainly be something. The first part is done, now waiting on a few things to fall into place on the internet side of things and we will be good to go.
A sad day, indeed. I abandoned PP for BoD 5-6 months back. And I never abandon anything. I have every Prospect Guide ever published. But Tim just wasn't producing anywhere near the content any more. His personal struggles were also difficult for me to read. I truly hope he gets the therapy he needs and that this next portion of his life will become his best yet. He seems to be a great guy and he deserves it.
It's sad for me to see the demise of such a great site but I feel relieved and happy for Tim that he's come to the realization that he needs to be doing something else. The last few months have been somewhat painful to observe, reading about intentions for big changes only for things to go dark for days or weeks--it was clear that his heart wasn't in it anymore.
Present company excluded, the quality of shit coming out of that place at its peak was so much better than what seems to be in the Pirate media ecosystem right now.
I see these jagoffs pop into my feed from time to time with more engagement than Tim ever got and yet the actual content is just trash.
Mitch Keller had a Top of the Rotation year in 2023. I have written before that he discovered a new pitch - a Sinker in 2022 and it has been a +8 Run Value in 2022, and a +11 Run Value in 2023. Other facts we should consider are the following numbers in 2023:
Wins - 13 Tied for 13th among all other qualified SP's
ERA - 4.21, 31st which is right below Alcantara, Kremer, Strider; right above Walker, Nola, Javier, Cease, Gibson, Mikolas, and Giolito
FIP - 3.80, 19th Right below Montgomery and Cease, right above Castillo, Burnes, and Verlander
It is difficult to come out of the system of the doormat of MLB, and be expected to develop winning talent combined with winning attitude. Notice the names in close proximity to him in ERA and FIP. He has very quietly risen to become the leader of our Rotation - we may not fully appreciate him, but I'll bet there's at least 10 annual contenders that would like to have him for a lot more than the chump change the Pirates are paying! Our modern day Bob Friend.
Baseball trade values, and I went back-and-forth on Keller extension numbers.
He threw out 4/$95M. I said what about longer to get AAV down maybe 8/$144M. He said their formulas suggested 8/$179M or 10/$217M. I’d have a hard time given Keller $20M+ annually.
Those numbers aren’t even remotely close to a realistic extension. A Keller extension would probably fall between Hayes and Reynolds, something like 7/$95m.
before FA began i suggested 4/$65 + $20m option year to make it 5/$85. unfortunately it seems like prices have gone up this offseason so he’s most likely out of our price range. i’m expecting a trade next offseason
His arb 2 salary is $5.4m, that’s a FA equivalent to $9.0m. Do I think he’s worth more as a FA? Yes, but any long term deal would include some economies. He’s young but has a limited track record, give him $15m for arb 2 & 3, then $15m for FA years. That’s 6/$77m or 7/$92m plus an option year of $18m-$20m with a $2m buyout.
If an extension takes place this off-season, Pirates would buy out his last 2-years of arb (maybe 15M).
I do something like 5-75. with a club option for a 6th year. I think that would be a fair option for both sides. He would be 33 at the end of the contract and if he pitches well, he'd still be in line for another payday. Should be a relatively easy sell for Cherington.
That was their final year. He has two years to put it up. He won’t take 5/75. It’s too little. $15M a year gets you severino now. It’s way low. 200 innings and 210 Ks is something very few do.
Let’s also not act like Keller has a track record like either of those pitchers though. By the time Burnes was two years from FA (where Keller is now) he’d won a CY, finished in the top 10 two other times and hit the 200K in 200IP threshold. Bieber? Also win a CY and two other top 10 finishes and a 200K in 200IP mark. Keller has about 1.75 good years so far. He may opt for more certainty, although I think 5/75 is low.
I also wouldn’t cite one bad contract, even if it’s one year, as industry standard going forward. Stroman just signed a two year deal for 37.5 and has been far better than Severino.
Burnes and Bieber (I think that's who you ment) have had better and more consistent on field production. Keller also has to consider health, I can see him agreeing to a 5 year $75 to $85 million deal with an option year getting him to $100 million.
If all goes well, Keller is looking at $15 to $18 million max for '24 and '25.
A 4 year deal for $60 with an option for a 5th to $80 would be reasonable as well.
Reasonable and a player wanting to max out are a big difference though.
Keller has a ways to go to catch up, hoping he can. Keller would have to average over 5 WAR both years while the other 2 doesn't accumulate anything just to barely pass Burnes in bWAR.
Same here. That’s not too onerous. I also think there’s plenty of money to support NMRs take of short term deals to players like Stroman to get some value there.
Hard Pass at 4/$95M. To give out that kind of money -- especially the Pirates -- you have to be supremely confident that you have a front of the rotation piece every year. I am nowhere near that with Keller. Would it surprise anyone if he had a bad season this year and saw his ERA in the 4s or be close to a replacement value player? I wouldn't be shocked. I believe now is the perfect time to trade Keller if he can return a top 100 prospect.
If? He certainly should, maybe more. His value is a decent bit less than Cease (as it should) with the same level of control.
But the goal isn’t to just accumulate top 100 prospects. They all matriculate and develop at different rates and the organization resets the timeline if Keller is traded. A better candidate to be moved if you’re looking to backfill, is Bednar.
His ERA was above 4 last season, right now he’s a workhorse 3 on a good team, 2 on an average team, 1 for us, probably $16-18 million a year for no more than 5.
As I said on a different thread, chances are far greater for Pirates to trade Keller this season than extend him. I base this opinion on the fact they tried and failed to extend him last year, and the figure they agreed on in arbitration.
I’d say, if you like Keller enjoy him while you can.
I would be stunned if Keller was close to a replacement player. The probabilities of that are probably <5%
I'm also in the mind set of keeping good players and trading prospects for good players. I so tired of watching Bucco prospects bust. Use that prospect capital and churn talent. Keep the can't miss prospects like Skeenes and Bub. Use the rest for MLB talent.
"I would be stunned if Keller was close to a replacement player."
There seem to be some unrealistic ideas about pitcher value floating around. In 2021, with a 6.17 ERA, Keller was still worth 1.1 fWAR. He was worth 2.1 in 2022 and 3.3 in 2023. A starter doesn't have to have a 1.50 ERA to be well above replacement value. Put a non-crappy team around him and his 2023 season would suddenly start looking very different, and it looked good even with the Pirates.
Talk about a rock and a hard place. They have to rely almost entirely on 0-6 players because Bob won’t spring for market value contracts, but 0-6 players don’t work out because these boobs couldn’t develop a digital photo.
If you buy Stumpf’s account, they probably lost out on Imanaga because they ran up against Bob’s puny payroll ceiling. If you won’t adjust your spending to take into account either market conditions or the team’s needs, you can’t have more than a few experienced players.
I’d be stunned if he’s replacement level, but I wouldn’t shocked to see him end up a 1.5-2 WAR player moving forward. And that also doesn’t account for possible changes in the offensive environment of the game. Home runs wax and wane, I’m not sure he’s the type of guy who’d do great in a more homer heavy environment.
I agree. I think some are a little too quick to jump on extension bandwagon the second someone shows some upside. I’m all for them taking risk. But $20 MM a year on a guy who has struggled for the vast bulk of his career in his age 28 season? Hard pass. If they are going to offer that kind of money they should be buying the younger pre-arbitration years of a stud prospect like Skenes. This teams interest in buying guys out into their 30’s, as they’ve shown with Reynolds and Keller really makes me blanch.
About that second half: obviously I’m sure we agree on not buying a guys decline years, which they might be doing on a Keller extension, and which they certainly did with Reynolds. So where do you allocate your dollars? My personal preference is to ensure that you’re buying a guys peak years, which naturally involves a decent amount of risk. personally, I would prefer that risk go towards position players as the Braves have done. But if they wanted to extend a pitcher, I would prefer one of the younger guys as opposed to Keller. It would also be cheaper, which would probably allow you some extra money to extend another player as well.
My take centers on it being an impossibility to build a winner with internal dudes only.
So, the path to winning means paying better dudes than they have now, and as long as the club acts like they don't have two nickels to rub together, that means *taking advantage of* the cheap pre-arb years.
Buying them out in order to get a couple extra FA years just extends losing clubs.
But, ideally you’re saving some $$$ on the extensions in addition to keeping guys longer. Cutch and Marte would’ve been gone long before they were if we had to pay the arbitration salaries. Likewise Carroll and Acuna are two modern day examples of intelligent risk taking leading to bargain contracts. Two examples for us: Skenes and Cruz will likely be gone after arb 2 if we don’t extend them. Maybe after arb 1. And of course you aren’t extending everyone. They should leave payroll space for additions and keep some of the talent cost controlled.
The AAV will probably have to be higher than we would want based on the market this year, but given how cheap a lot of our talent is right now with preArb players, probably makes sense to go shorter deal with her AAV than longer deal that could be quite ugly on the back end
Did I see that Tim hung it up?
Hope the best for that guy.
I'd love to run into him someday and just chat. Very interesting guy and the site was must read for any Pirate fan. I loved his approach and content and that is also a shout out to all of his collaborators. Wish him all the best.
Well if that's the case, it definitely is a sad day. Been following his stuff since 2008. His stuff was a daily read during the rebuild up until he went off the deep end with all the music/comic book stuff.
I'm glad that BoD has filled the gap for me. This daily coverage and discussion is much more enjoyable for me then say listening to "Locked on Pirates" and I can't bring myself to read or listen to anything from DK. (I lost all respect for him when he threw that big temper tantrum over the Buccos not signing Sano) Now if only BoD would resurrect the podcast "Two and a Half Gringos"...I miss those episodes!
But back to P2, I do hope that Tim finds a fulfilling next chapter for himself.
Was just waiting on moving into the new house and getting the internet running. Not sure what the exact plan is but will certainly be something. The first part is done, now waiting on a few things to fall into place on the internet side of things and we will be good to go.
Amen to all of that!
A sad day, indeed. I abandoned PP for BoD 5-6 months back. And I never abandon anything. I have every Prospect Guide ever published. But Tim just wasn't producing anywhere near the content any more. His personal struggles were also difficult for me to read. I truly hope he gets the therapy he needs and that this next portion of his life will become his best yet. He seems to be a great guy and he deserves it.
It's sad for me to see the demise of such a great site but I feel relieved and happy for Tim that he's come to the realization that he needs to be doing something else. The last few months have been somewhat painful to observe, reading about intentions for big changes only for things to go dark for days or weeks--it was clear that his heart wasn't in it anymore.
Jesus, the thought that crossed my mind after reading the first line.
Yeah, I'm with you...He provided great content over the years.
Present company excluded, the quality of shit coming out of that place at its peak was so much better than what seems to be in the Pirate media ecosystem right now.
I see these jagoffs pop into my feed from time to time with more engagement than Tim ever got and yet the actual content is just trash.
Mitch Keller had a Top of the Rotation year in 2023. I have written before that he discovered a new pitch - a Sinker in 2022 and it has been a +8 Run Value in 2022, and a +11 Run Value in 2023. Other facts we should consider are the following numbers in 2023:
Wins - 13 Tied for 13th among all other qualified SP's
ERA - 4.21, 31st which is right below Alcantara, Kremer, Strider; right above Walker, Nola, Javier, Cease, Gibson, Mikolas, and Giolito
FIP - 3.80, 19th Right below Montgomery and Cease, right above Castillo, Burnes, and Verlander
It is difficult to come out of the system of the doormat of MLB, and be expected to develop winning talent combined with winning attitude. Notice the names in close proximity to him in ERA and FIP. He has very quietly risen to become the leader of our Rotation - we may not fully appreciate him, but I'll bet there's at least 10 annual contenders that would like to have him for a lot more than the chump change the Pirates are paying! Our modern day Bob Friend.
Baseball trade values, and I went back-and-forth on Keller extension numbers.
He threw out 4/$95M. I said what about longer to get AAV down maybe 8/$144M. He said their formulas suggested 8/$179M or 10/$217M. I’d have a hard time given Keller $20M+ annually.
Those numbers aren’t even remotely close to a realistic extension. A Keller extension would probably fall between Hayes and Reynolds, something like 7/$95m.
before FA began i suggested 4/$65 + $20m option year to make it 5/$85. unfortunately it seems like prices have gone up this offseason so he’s most likely out of our price range. i’m expecting a trade next offseason
His arb 2 salary is $5.4m, that’s a FA equivalent to $9.0m. Do I think he’s worth more as a FA? Yes, but any long term deal would include some economies. He’s young but has a limited track record, give him $15m for arb 2 & 3, then $15m for FA years. That’s 6/$77m or 7/$92m plus an option year of $18m-$20m with a $2m buyout.
If an extension takes place this off-season, Pirates would buy out his last 2-years of arb (maybe 15M).
I do something like 5-75. with a club option for a 6th year. I think that would be a fair option for both sides. He would be 33 at the end of the contract and if he pitches well, he'd still be in line for another payday. Should be a relatively easy sell for Cherington.
That's a reasonable amount for both sides.
If I’m Keller and I see Burnes getting $15M and Horner getting $13M in their final arbitration years I don’t take $15 for both.
He’s not been as consistent or as good as either one of them.
That was their final year. He has two years to put it up. He won’t take 5/75. It’s too little. $15M a year gets you severino now. It’s way low. 200 innings and 210 Ks is something very few do.
Let’s also not act like Keller has a track record like either of those pitchers though. By the time Burnes was two years from FA (where Keller is now) he’d won a CY, finished in the top 10 two other times and hit the 200K in 200IP threshold. Bieber? Also win a CY and two other top 10 finishes and a 200K in 200IP mark. Keller has about 1.75 good years so far. He may opt for more certainty, although I think 5/75 is low.
I also wouldn’t cite one bad contract, even if it’s one year, as industry standard going forward. Stroman just signed a two year deal for 37.5 and has been far better than Severino.
Burnes and Bieber (I think that's who you ment) have had better and more consistent on field production. Keller also has to consider health, I can see him agreeing to a 5 year $75 to $85 million deal with an option year getting him to $100 million.
If all goes well, Keller is looking at $15 to $18 million max for '24 and '25.
A 4 year deal for $60 with an option for a 5th to $80 would be reasonable as well.
Reasonable and a player wanting to max out are a big difference though.
That was their final year number. He intends to improve. Keller had 3.3 WAR last season. Burnes 3.4. He pitched 200 innings. That’s rare.
Burnes has 13.5 bWAR 17.7 fWAR with a year to go.
Bieber has 17.0 bWAR 20.7 fWAR with a year to go.
Keller has 4.1 bWAR 7.5 fWAR with 2 years to go.
Keller has a ways to go to catch up, hoping he can. Keller would have to average over 5 WAR both years while the other 2 doesn't accumulate anything just to barely pass Burnes in bWAR.
Same here. That’s not too onerous. I also think there’s plenty of money to support NMRs take of short term deals to players like Stroman to get some value there.
Hard Pass at 4/$95M. To give out that kind of money -- especially the Pirates -- you have to be supremely confident that you have a front of the rotation piece every year. I am nowhere near that with Keller. Would it surprise anyone if he had a bad season this year and saw his ERA in the 4s or be close to a replacement value player? I wouldn't be shocked. I believe now is the perfect time to trade Keller if he can return a top 100 prospect.
If? He certainly should, maybe more. His value is a decent bit less than Cease (as it should) with the same level of control.
But the goal isn’t to just accumulate top 100 prospects. They all matriculate and develop at different rates and the organization resets the timeline if Keller is traded. A better candidate to be moved if you’re looking to backfill, is Bednar.
His ERA was above 4 last season, right now he’s a workhorse 3 on a good team, 2 on an average team, 1 for us, probably $16-18 million a year for no more than 5.
As I said on a different thread, chances are far greater for Pirates to trade Keller this season than extend him. I base this opinion on the fact they tried and failed to extend him last year, and the figure they agreed on in arbitration.
I’d say, if you like Keller enjoy him while you can.
I would be stunned if Keller was close to a replacement player. The probabilities of that are probably <5%
I'm also in the mind set of keeping good players and trading prospects for good players. I so tired of watching Bucco prospects bust. Use that prospect capital and churn talent. Keep the can't miss prospects like Skeenes and Bub. Use the rest for MLB talent.
"I would be stunned if Keller was close to a replacement player."
There seem to be some unrealistic ideas about pitcher value floating around. In 2021, with a 6.17 ERA, Keller was still worth 1.1 fWAR. He was worth 2.1 in 2022 and 3.3 in 2023. A starter doesn't have to have a 1.50 ERA to be well above replacement value. Put a non-crappy team around him and his 2023 season would suddenly start looking very different, and it looked good even with the Pirates.
His metrics involving babip have always been weird.
Talk about a rock and a hard place. They have to rely almost entirely on 0-6 players because Bob won’t spring for market value contracts, but 0-6 players don’t work out because these boobs couldn’t develop a digital photo.
If you buy Stumpf’s account, they probably lost out on Imanaga because they ran up against Bob’s puny payroll ceiling. If you won’t adjust your spending to take into account either market conditions or the team’s needs, you can’t have more than a few experienced players.
I’d be stunned if he’s replacement level, but I wouldn’t shocked to see him end up a 1.5-2 WAR player moving forward. And that also doesn’t account for possible changes in the offensive environment of the game. Home runs wax and wane, I’m not sure he’s the type of guy who’d do great in a more homer heavy environment.
Keller's a #4 at best without Hedges catching him, that's jus facs.
That's a hot take! However, there's some truth here. Although, when Keller took off in May of '22, he did not have Hedges.
Take said, I don't see Hank stealing k's with Keller's backdoor sinker riding heavy on lefties hip and diving back towards the zone.
Honestly was just jagging you, lol
Come on, man...You know I'm an easy target!
I agree. I think some are a little too quick to jump on extension bandwagon the second someone shows some upside. I’m all for them taking risk. But $20 MM a year on a guy who has struggled for the vast bulk of his career in his age 28 season? Hard pass. If they are going to offer that kind of money they should be buying the younger pre-arbitration years of a stud prospect like Skenes. This teams interest in buying guys out into their 30’s, as they’ve shown with Reynolds and Keller really makes me blanch.
you had me in the first half...
About that second half: obviously I’m sure we agree on not buying a guys decline years, which they might be doing on a Keller extension, and which they certainly did with Reynolds. So where do you allocate your dollars? My personal preference is to ensure that you’re buying a guys peak years, which naturally involves a decent amount of risk. personally, I would prefer that risk go towards position players as the Braves have done. But if they wanted to extend a pitcher, I would prefer one of the younger guys as opposed to Keller. It would also be cheaper, which would probably allow you some extra money to extend another player as well.
My take centers on it being an impossibility to build a winner with internal dudes only.
So, the path to winning means paying better dudes than they have now, and as long as the club acts like they don't have two nickels to rub together, that means *taking advantage of* the cheap pre-arb years.
Buying them out in order to get a couple extra FA years just extends losing clubs.
But, ideally you’re saving some $$$ on the extensions in addition to keeping guys longer. Cutch and Marte would’ve been gone long before they were if we had to pay the arbitration salaries. Likewise Carroll and Acuna are two modern day examples of intelligent risk taking leading to bargain contracts. Two examples for us: Skenes and Cruz will likely be gone after arb 2 if we don’t extend them. Maybe after arb 1. And of course you aren’t extending everyone. They should leave payroll space for additions and keep some of the talent cost controlled.
The AAV will probably have to be higher than we would want based on the market this year, but given how cheap a lot of our talent is right now with preArb players, probably makes sense to go shorter deal with her AAV than longer deal that could be quite ugly on the back end
You gotta dance with the girl that brought ya, but my money would be on contracts like Stroman's and Imanaga's before I locked it into extensions.