In the exit velocities, of course it was Grandal, not Joe, with the HR. Speaking of Grandal, if we didn't appear set at catcher with Bart, Rodriguez, and Davis, it would be smart to bring him back.
Right, no need to bring him back. As for the other positions of need, let's go all in on LF or RF. Move Reynolds to 1B and let Yorke, Cook, Suwinski, BDLC, Bae, and perhaps even Davis battle it out for the other corner position. I.e., consolidate our spending on fewer but higher quality players.
I agree because we have three other options and that doesn't even include Delay. As it is, it will be a challenge to get enough playing time for Bart, Endy, and Davis if they all stay healthy (big if), especially if Reynolds is at 1B and Cutch at DH.
This gets my vote. If weird things happen in the spring or off-season and Pirates are actually short catching then sure, grab him to fill the gap in mid March but I see no need to sign him outside of that scenario given Bart's success, Endy being back, the still hope of Hank, and we didn't even mention Delay who is a good AAAA catcher IMO.
Statcast puts Grandal at 1st percentile pop time and CS. He's thrown out 9%. The rest of the catchers -- almost entirely Bart and Davis, neither of whom is especially good defensively -- have thrown out 19%. The problem isn't the pitchers.
Agree.. per my post above.. he is a 'break glass in emergency' signing if there are injuries, otherwise we have 4 catchers on the 40 man who provide a reasonable level of confidence as a group. This is not the position to be re-signing Grandal or adding another 'vet'.
I think Grandal’s greatest value may have been how he handled pitchers. I haven’t read anything in the past about him being some kind of whisperer, but the fact that he seemed to be the catcher of choice for both Keller and Skenes might mean something.
Just like having MAT stick around to hopefully aid in Oneil’s transition to the outfield, I hope Grandal is imparting whatever traits/skills he has in this regard to Bart (and Davis when he was up).
MLBTR is doing a position-by-position series on coming FAs. Their view is Grandal might get a backup gig but might have to take a MiL deal. They see Tellez as a bench bat. For some odd reason, they seem to think the whole season counts and not just the good months.
There is a name for the condition that those who want guys like Tellez and Grandal back have: Stockholm Syndrom. They have been held hostage for so long by a baseball franchise that they have come to love bad baseball.
believe it or not, all Pirate position players over the age of 30 contributed positive fWAR. If you only read the postings in here, you'd never believe it.
It's not the shitty FA signing that are hurting the team, it's the failure of the young guys.
Believe me, there is many layers of why the Pirates suck, but it's not the vets.
Fully agree we aren’t going to be successful by free agency. It’s generally a horrific investment. By the same token, you can’t be spending nearly $40 million dollars in offseason acquisitions and getting 2.5 fWAR. Due to budgetary constraints, we don’t have the margin for error to spend in such a manner. Spending a combined $15 million on combined replacement level production from guys like MAT, Rowdy and Perez cost them the opportunity to spend that $15 million in a more productive manner elsewhere. Would it have made an actual difference this year? Probably not. But such failures make me pessimistic about the future, particularly given that as long as Nutting is the owner, we are going to win by being successful at the margins. Look at 2015. Misallocation of $15 million is likely the difference between winning the division or being stuck in the wildcard.
About 30.5M spent on 3.2 fWAR. Going rate is about 8M/1win. Not only is your math off on both accounts, but your post in general is also missing the point
Funny that you have to get most of your value from Chapman and Cutch. Chapman was the one example of BC signing a guy for real money who had some actual upside, iow it was the one example of BC behaving like an actual major league GM. And BC didn't want Cutch. Nuttin, of all people, gets 100% of the credit there.
In your parlance, “missing the point” seems to mean I don’t agree with you. We should be able to account for reasonable disagreements here. So by your parlance, I think you’re missing the point. At $8 million per win they should be north of 4 WAR. But even that’s not good enough, as if they paid full haul for a 90 win team you’re looking at $720 million payroll. Your comments do not take into account the market differences and realities of small market success.
I notice you carefully framed this to leave out Tellez, who's 29, and Olivares, who's 28. They've put up -0.4 and -0.9. respectively. Meanwhile, Grandal has managed 1.1, which is average at best for the PT he's had (let's try to remember that replacement level isn't "average," it's below average) and MAT has put up 0.4, which flat out sucks. There's also Connor Joe, who's 32 and who's put up 0.4 in close to every day playing time, which really sucks. So it's not even close to accurate to say that the vets aren't the problem. They're a major part of it. The reality is, this team is at least half a roster away from being good and everybody's in it.
Grandal has put up .3 bWAR. I know it is sacrilege and blasphemy to contradict the holy Fangraphs for some, but there is a subjective component to defensive value, even with metrics. If not, then everyone would agree on defensive value.
The Pirates spent 2.5 million on this guy... 3.5 million on Tellez... 10 million on Chapman... 4 million on MAT... . Sure we can point to .4 fWAR for MAT or .9fWAR for Chapman and say... see... the offseason wasn't a total disaster. What is missed, however, is opportunity cost. Could this $20 million have been better spent? And the answer to that is... ABSOLUTELY!
I think Grandal was limited by his foot injury early on. Either way, 1.1 is perfectly acceptable if Davis ended up being the primary catcher and hit like a middle of the order bat.
Joe’s uneven/lack of production wasn’t what doomed this offense. Neither was Olivares.
It was Davis being a negative player, Suwinski not becoming that more consistent offensive bat with 30ish homers, and Hayes regressing with his bat and defense that killed the season.
Oh, yeah, and the preseason highly rated bullpen doing what they did.
Next year will be no different. Whatever vets are signed will have minimal impact in whether this team contends compared to what will be needed from Bart, Davis, Endy, Yorke, Hayes, etc.
This is more my thinking. You CAN have an average player or two starting on a championship team and maybe even a mediocre player, but you can't have a lineup full of them. Grandal as a one off was an OK signing with his strong finish (I just can't flush the months of him not hitting) helping that grade but he wasn't a difference maker. Pirates need MANY more difference makers.
I just think the primary focus on the FA’s on this thread misses the point of this team will compete given what Nutting will spend (an unfortunate reality).
Getting .5 more war from MAT as a backup, defensive replacement CF wouldn’t mean crap overall if Suwinski was a 3 War player this year.
Triolo’s contribution plus or minus wouldn’t be discussed is Hayes’ performance even approached the last few months of 2023.
Grandal’s play would be perfectly acceptable if he was Keller’s personal catcher and Davis smacked the crap out of the ball in the four hole while playing slightly below-average defense.
Spot on. The only FA signing that was absolutely terrible was Tellez, who technically isn’t 30 until next year, I believe.
The team did not contend this year for a lot of reasons, none of which should be attributed to Chapman, Perez, Gonzales and Grandal. Outside of getting nothing from 1B, this year was undone by the lack of production of Hayes, Suwinski, Davis, Triolo, etc.
A very slow start due to the PF, but definitely worth the money spent. Not sure we can afford the slot on the 26.
I hope that the Pirates start to shed some of the MI's that are no longer needed. A very tough decision on what to do at SS, but IKF has not impressed enough to be worth $7.5 mil. I go with Liover Peguero right out of ST. After that, who will be the placeholder at 2B? Whatever, we need a new Sheriff in town (hoping for Don Kelly), and a new approach for hitters - "put the ball in play". Many Teams and hitters have discovered the secret to putting the ball in play, and to also be able to hit for power.
We all like somebody who hits, but Triolo is essential because he can step in and play as well as anybody we have at 2B, SS, and 3B - he did last year and is doing well again in 2024 with most of the games played at 2B, 3B, and possibly 5 or 10 at SS. Why pay $7.5 mil for IKF to be the backup. I see IKF's numbers and I just want to know why he has 3 walks and 33 K's for the Pirates - it tells me he was comfortable in Toronto and is nowhere near comfortable in Pittsburgh - his head is not into it!
at the cost of who? Yorke is either the starting left fielder or starting second baseman
the big move would be to crown Nicky G the starting shortstop, Yorke at second and then trade prospects for a real bat at left field and move Reynolds to first base
think will see IKF, Peguero and maybe Cheng puetering at shortstop until June when Termarr lights it up -- Dude is due to go on a tear starting in March 2025
Many, but not all, of the “new” metrics reflect measurements of things we’re taught at the basic level of baseball. A walk is as good as a hit, get a good pitch to hit, hit the ball hard someplace, etc. There aren’t direct correlations with all of the new metrics, but personally, if I connect the dots in that way, it makes more sense.
As for your beef with exit velocity, I certainly feel that way about max exit velocity.
In the exit velocities, of course it was Grandal, not Joe, with the HR. Speaking of Grandal, if we didn't appear set at catcher with Bart, Rodriguez, and Davis, it would be smart to bring him back.
Didn’t see this game (glad I didn’t), but it sounded like 2019 Mitch. A little early for spooky season.
If neither Davis or Endy can serve in this role, then Pirates are truly screwed. Save the money and put it towards 1B, 3B, and RF.
Pirates desperately need more production from those three positions.
Right, no need to bring him back. As for the other positions of need, let's go all in on LF or RF. Move Reynolds to 1B and let Yorke, Cook, Suwinski, BDLC, Bae, and perhaps even Davis battle it out for the other corner position. I.e., consolidate our spending on fewer but higher quality players.
Hard pass. 36 year old catchers are liabilities not assets. Just watch the Reds run on him this upcoming series.
I agree because we have three other options and that doesn't even include Delay. As it is, it will be a challenge to get enough playing time for Bart, Endy, and Davis if they all stay healthy (big if), especially if Reynolds is at 1B and Cutch at DH.
This gets my vote. If weird things happen in the spring or off-season and Pirates are actually short catching then sure, grab him to fill the gap in mid March but I see no need to sign him outside of that scenario given Bart's success, Endy being back, the still hope of Hank, and we didn't even mention Delay who is a good AAAA catcher IMO.
subjective analysis, not objective. Pitchers have to keep runners honest.
Grandal does everything else very well.
Statcast puts Grandal at 1st percentile pop time and CS. He's thrown out 9%. The rest of the catchers -- almost entirely Bart and Davis, neither of whom is especially good defensively -- have thrown out 19%. The problem isn't the pitchers.
There's more to catcher defense than pop time
I love mountain dew. It's pop time for me as long as it's not before bedtime. But I get your point.
Yeah, and there's more than framing, too. Standard Cherington low-bar analysis. He does something well so it's OK to suck at something else.
right. Fangraphs d has him 2nd on the team behind only Taylor.
It's not just pop and framing.
Agree.. per my post above.. he is a 'break glass in emergency' signing if there are injuries, otherwise we have 4 catchers on the 40 man who provide a reasonable level of confidence as a group. This is not the position to be re-signing Grandal or adding another 'vet'.
I think Grandal’s greatest value may have been how he handled pitchers. I haven’t read anything in the past about him being some kind of whisperer, but the fact that he seemed to be the catcher of choice for both Keller and Skenes might mean something.
Just like having MAT stick around to hopefully aid in Oneil’s transition to the outfield, I hope Grandal is imparting whatever traits/skills he has in this regard to Bart (and Davis when he was up).
MLBTR is doing a position-by-position series on coming FAs. Their view is Grandal might get a backup gig but might have to take a MiL deal. They see Tellez as a bench bat. For some odd reason, they seem to think the whole season counts and not just the good months.
There is a name for the condition that those who want guys like Tellez and Grandal back have: Stockholm Syndrom. They have been held hostage for so long by a baseball franchise that they have come to love bad baseball.
The MLBTR list of 1B was sobering. While I don't know how real the Reynolds to 1B talk really was it did make me reconsider my opinion.
He's ended up as a fantastic signing. Pitcher's love throwing to him and his wRC+ has been with league leaders in the 2nd half.
For the record, I'm not sold on Bart for next season.
He’s one I will fully admit I was wrong about. His numbers are even better if you take the splits into account.
believe it or not, all Pirate position players over the age of 30 contributed positive fWAR. If you only read the postings in here, you'd never believe it.
It's not the shitty FA signing that are hurting the team, it's the failure of the young guys.
Believe me, there is many layers of why the Pirates suck, but it's not the vets.
Fully agree we aren’t going to be successful by free agency. It’s generally a horrific investment. By the same token, you can’t be spending nearly $40 million dollars in offseason acquisitions and getting 2.5 fWAR. Due to budgetary constraints, we don’t have the margin for error to spend in such a manner. Spending a combined $15 million on combined replacement level production from guys like MAT, Rowdy and Perez cost them the opportunity to spend that $15 million in a more productive manner elsewhere. Would it have made an actual difference this year? Probably not. But such failures make me pessimistic about the future, particularly given that as long as Nutting is the owner, we are going to win by being successful at the margins. Look at 2015. Misallocation of $15 million is likely the difference between winning the division or being stuck in the wildcard.
Actually they got 3.2 fWAR from FA's
-Grandal 1.1 2.5M
-Chapman 0.9 10.5M
-Cutch 0.9 5M
-Taylor 0.4 4M
-Perez 0.3 prorated to ~5.3M
-Tellez -0.4 3.2M
About 30.5M spent on 3.2 fWAR. Going rate is about 8M/1win. Not only is your math off on both accounts, but your post in general is also missing the point
Funny that you have to get most of your value from Chapman and Cutch. Chapman was the one example of BC signing a guy for real money who had some actual upside, iow it was the one example of BC behaving like an actual major league GM. And BC didn't want Cutch. Nuttin, of all people, gets 100% of the credit there.
My mistake on the math.
In your parlance, “missing the point” seems to mean I don’t agree with you. We should be able to account for reasonable disagreements here. So by your parlance, I think you’re missing the point. At $8 million per win they should be north of 4 WAR. But even that’s not good enough, as if they paid full haul for a 90 win team you’re looking at $720 million payroll. Your comments do not take into account the market differences and realities of small market success.
I notice you carefully framed this to leave out Tellez, who's 29, and Olivares, who's 28. They've put up -0.4 and -0.9. respectively. Meanwhile, Grandal has managed 1.1, which is average at best for the PT he's had (let's try to remember that replacement level isn't "average," it's below average) and MAT has put up 0.4, which flat out sucks. There's also Connor Joe, who's 32 and who's put up 0.4 in close to every day playing time, which really sucks. So it's not even close to accurate to say that the vets aren't the problem. They're a major part of it. The reality is, this team is at least half a roster away from being good and everybody's in it.
Grandal has put up .3 bWAR. I know it is sacrilege and blasphemy to contradict the holy Fangraphs for some, but there is a subjective component to defensive value, even with metrics. If not, then everyone would agree on defensive value.
The Pirates spent 2.5 million on this guy... 3.5 million on Tellez... 10 million on Chapman... 4 million on MAT... . Sure we can point to .4 fWAR for MAT or .9fWAR for Chapman and say... see... the offseason wasn't a total disaster. What is missed, however, is opportunity cost. Could this $20 million have been better spent? And the answer to that is... ABSOLUTELY!
lol
the only reason you are using BR is because you feel you have a point. then, you revert back to using FG.
Stick to the simulations
I think Grandal was limited by his foot injury early on. Either way, 1.1 is perfectly acceptable if Davis ended up being the primary catcher and hit like a middle of the order bat.
Joe’s uneven/lack of production wasn’t what doomed this offense. Neither was Olivares.
It was Davis being a negative player, Suwinski not becoming that more consistent offensive bat with 30ish homers, and Hayes regressing with his bat and defense that killed the season.
Oh, yeah, and the preseason highly rated bullpen doing what they did.
Next year will be no different. Whatever vets are signed will have minimal impact in whether this team contends compared to what will be needed from Bart, Davis, Endy, Yorke, Hayes, etc.
Grandal was limited by being in the wrong role. He started hitting after he lost playing time to Bart. He should never have been made the starter.
1.1 fWAR in 69 games is not average at best.
I framed 30 because that is what I would consider a vet.
The young guys are a much, much bigger problem. If the young guys were actually good, there would be no need to bring in vets.
"1.1 fWAR in 69 games is not average at best."
It's actually below average. There are 44 catchers with 200+ PAs. Grandal ranks 28th in fWAR.
This is more my thinking. You CAN have an average player or two starting on a championship team and maybe even a mediocre player, but you can't have a lineup full of them. Grandal as a one off was an OK signing with his strong finish (I just can't flush the months of him not hitting) helping that grade but he wasn't a difference maker. Pirates need MANY more difference makers.
Agree!
I just think the primary focus on the FA’s on this thread misses the point of this team will compete given what Nutting will spend (an unfortunate reality).
Getting .5 more war from MAT as a backup, defensive replacement CF wouldn’t mean crap overall if Suwinski was a 3 War player this year.
Triolo’s contribution plus or minus wouldn’t be discussed is Hayes’ performance even approached the last few months of 2023.
Grandal’s play would be perfectly acceptable if he was Keller’s personal catcher and Davis smacked the crap out of the ball in the four hole while playing slightly below-average defense.
If the bullpen actually…
Spot on. The only FA signing that was absolutely terrible was Tellez, who technically isn’t 30 until next year, I believe.
The team did not contend this year for a lot of reasons, none of which should be attributed to Chapman, Perez, Gonzales and Grandal. Outside of getting nothing from 1B, this year was undone by the lack of production of Hayes, Suwinski, Davis, Triolo, etc.
The Tellez silver lining is that he seems to have saved them from blowing $30m of Rhys Hoskins. ;)
A very slow start due to the PF, but definitely worth the money spent. Not sure we can afford the slot on the 26.
I hope that the Pirates start to shed some of the MI's that are no longer needed. A very tough decision on what to do at SS, but IKF has not impressed enough to be worth $7.5 mil. I go with Liover Peguero right out of ST. After that, who will be the placeholder at 2B? Whatever, we need a new Sheriff in town (hoping for Don Kelly), and a new approach for hitters - "put the ball in play". Many Teams and hitters have discovered the secret to putting the ball in play, and to also be able to hit for power.
IKF with 3.7 bWar this season, not shabby. He has a Kevin Newman arm but seems to make most of the plays.
$7.5 M is a no-brainer given his veteranosity and baseball acumen. And his OBP.
i like a bench of Tank, Cook, Triolo and IKF in 2025
I was Tank's biggest fan, but he just can't hit in MLB. A monumental problem.
SSS but I'm really liking Yorke over Cook and Triolo. It's going to be a competitive ST with some jobs at stake.
We all like somebody who hits, but Triolo is essential because he can step in and play as well as anybody we have at 2B, SS, and 3B - he did last year and is doing well again in 2024 with most of the games played at 2B, 3B, and possibly 5 or 10 at SS. Why pay $7.5 mil for IKF to be the backup. I see IKF's numbers and I just want to know why he has 3 walks and 33 K's for the Pirates - it tells me he was comfortable in Toronto and is nowhere near comfortable in Pittsburgh - his head is not into it!
at the cost of who? Yorke is either the starting left fielder or starting second baseman
the big move would be to crown Nicky G the starting shortstop, Yorke at second and then trade prospects for a real bat at left field and move Reynolds to first base
backup catchers arent required to hit
On the offensively starved Pirates, yeah they need to hit their weight at least.
think will see IKF, Peguero and maybe Cheng puetering at shortstop until June when Termarr lights it up -- Dude is due to go on a tear starting in March 2025
I'm tired of seeing news about hitting velocity - I want to see the Bucs hit the ball "where they ain't."
Many, but not all, of the “new” metrics reflect measurements of things we’re taught at the basic level of baseball. A walk is as good as a hit, get a good pitch to hit, hit the ball hard someplace, etc. There aren’t direct correlations with all of the new metrics, but personally, if I connect the dots in that way, it makes more sense.
As for your beef with exit velocity, I certainly feel that way about max exit velocity.