Just checked the complex league box score for today. Estuar Suero is doing absolutely nothing: .185/.292/.259. Another tools fail. And Severino is doing very little one level up. The Bucs can’t seem to make these toolsy trade targets work. I like the approach in theory, but the results are pitiful. The last hit is none other than Oneil Cruz for Tony Watson. Thank you Neal Huntington.
I think this conveniently ties to our evaluator comparison below.
The Bucs certainly aren't great, but the hit rate on these dudes *league wide* is atrocious.
I'd be curious where Law had guys like Suero, Severino, and YDLS compared to McDaniel. Longenhagen had all three in his top 15. BA only had Severino in their top 30, albeit up at #11.
Yeah.. going with a tools first-type evaluation priority is a high risk- high reward. People have a tendency to forget the high risk part of the calculus.
They’re high risk, but you have to hit on a few here and there. A quick scroll through bb-ref will show that many teams manage this on the int’l front. The Pirates don’t. They haven’t since Marte, unless you want to count Polanco, who was long ago himself.
I’d argue that a significant part of a GM’s job is playing the odds more effectively than the other guys. If over many years, one guy consistently wins at poker and another consistently loses, is the difference just luck?
"I’d argue that a significant part of a GM’s job is playing the odds more effectively than the other guys. If over many years, one guy consistently wins at poker and another consistently loses, is the difference just luck?"
Exactly this. The similarities between poker and baseball analytics are striking. I have been thinking this for almost a decade. There is a difference between a gamble and a smart bet, and sometimes that difference is only a few percentage points one way or another, but these small percentage differences add up to a big divergence in performance over time and reps.
Yeah, and we’ve seen that “big divergence” over Cherington’s failed tenure. He claims to be relying on projections, but when the “small percentage differences” come out on the negative side over and over and over, that should tell you that your data or your calculations are flawed. Yet he makes no changes in the way he operates.
I would absolutely take a chance on that Hartshorn kid. You don't see that kind of power too often, and even if he hits only .200, he could still be a useful everyday player.
Haha, maybe it’s Cherington Low Bar Syndrome, but I’d just like to have an up-the-middle guy who can run, field and get on base. Even if he’s not an everyday type.
Here's any interesting explainer for us stat nerds:
Ryan: How reliable are the contact rates Fangraphs reports on player pages in Rookie ball? There are guys with high whiff percentages and loud numbers, which I’m not used to seeing at higher levels. Is calibration inconsistent at such a low level, or is it an example of guys feasting on subpar stuff often enough to inflate their stats?
Eric A Longenhagen: They’re not correct because, depending on the setting, what gets marked as a swinging strike or looking strike might be automated. For instance, if you strike out swinging, the MLB auto stringer gives he player three swinging strikes in the at-bat. I’ve asked Sean about scrubbing that from the leaderboards but isolating that stat and leaving the other stuff is not feasible from a web developing standpoint.
Eric A Longenhagen: So just ignore those. I’m sorry, it’s not ideal, and hopefully at some point MLB will have more accurate, pitch by pitch data for those levels soon and it won’t be an issue anymore.
EL is correct. In fact, I think the problem is even larger. For most R level games, individual pitches aren’t tracked. It just assumes 3 strikes for a K and 4 balls for a BB, with no other pitches, ie, no fouls, no 2-2 or 3-2 counts, etc.
Only reason they wouldn't other than health is 3 of the 4 play smaller schools today and might want to save their top guys. Oklahoma being the exception. I still think they'll all go with their top guys though, sure don't want to be upset the first day.
So Keith Law did a chat yesterday based on his top 50 prospects. He fielded another set of questions from at least five people asking why Griffin didn’t make the list. Law continues to insist that while Griffin is impressive, he is still not addressing the fundamental problems with his approach, especially pitch recognition.
Other Pirates notes:
1) Law conceded that Termarr has been better recently, but he wants to see him sustain this progress.
2) When asked for a sleeper pick or someone impressive that is not yet on the radar in the Pirates’ system, he cited Wyatt Sanford. This fits with Law’s approach, which emphasizes making contact and controlling the strike zone as markers for future success (as opposed to Kiley McDaniels, who places more emphasis on pure tools.)
On the Fangraphs chat today, EL fielded a chat on K rates, and cited a 75% contact rate for Griffin, which would be a shade below MLB average, but not sure. He said it’s more granular (and reliable data) than K rate. I’m unsure of how to find that metric on the FG leaderboard, but that’s not surprising since I’m only slightly more tech savvy than Creed Bratton.
Appreciate it, thanks. I was looking for contact percentage on a leaderboard page as opposed to the individual player pages.
And EL is right, a percentage such as KG’s is by no means a death sentence. Walcott, Basallo, Lawlar, Williams, Mayer, etc are all around Griffin’s percentage or lower.
For so many players, the outlooks swings incredibly widely from one side to the other. Just weeks ago, Hank had the worst WAR of any #1 overall pick. At the end of this season, that outlook could change entirely.
I think the pirates should try to trade for Veen. Rockies need pitching and have way more outfield depth in the upper minors. There's not a lot of near ready outfielders available out there, the pirates need to be creative.
Somewhere between 50-100 seems pretty reasonable for Griffin and I'm not generally a fan of the outlets who make wild swings in prospect status one way or another. I still think Griffin's swing was equal or greater a concern as his approach and the swing improvements are undeniable, but overall don't get much heartburn in generally seeing him somewhere in the top hundo.
I don’t have a subscription to Baseball America anymore, so I don’t know where they come down on the tools vs. control of the strike zone debate (if you can call it that). Similarly I don’t know where Callis and Mayo come down either. But the contrast between Law and McDaniel is really striking to me. McDaniel, for example, was the first guy with a national platform to more or less say I don’t give a damn about his current production, but I *love* to watch Oneil Cruz play baseball. Whereas Law is such a stickler for contact and guys who walk as much or more than they strikeout. Obviously I don’t have the time to review each of their hit rates on prospects, but it would make for an interesting study.
I should add that part of the reason that Law is so down on Termarr is that he bought into the whole best contact/hit tool in the 2022 draft hype. So he feels quite let down by his performance to date.
If I were a betting man I'd put a healthy wager on Law winning that one. We forget about far more teenage studs than we remember turn into actual stars, and Oneil Cruz is at a level where he's the most physically talented dude nearly every time he steps onto a diamond. Applying his eventual success to prospects who follow, woof, that's an awfully high talent bar to match in order to cover the flaws.
As a mater of probability, you're probably safest hedging bets on guys that don't get beat at the lowest level in the most obvious manner players fail at the highest.
Callis/Mayo/Pipeline aren't a serious outfit, they're a promo arm for MLB.
Longenhagen/Fangraphs are a pretty close comp to Kiley in that they love to pump super young athletes who might not hit and then drop them when they don't.
To my eye, BA is a pretty good average of the Law/McDaniel spectrum.
-After 3 straight games in Indy, here is my report. The comradery with the pitchers seems to be real. I know it sounds corny, but they are upbeat and engaged before the game and during the game. It is like a good high school or college team. Carson Fulmer seems to accepted his role nicely.
-I can't say the same for the hitters. Not that it is bad, but I think several know they are not the fun young upcoming prospects like they were 2 years ago. Some are on their final straw and know it.
-Maybe the most exciting thing to watch in person is watching Jack Suwinski and Billy Cook cover ground in the outfield. They are fast and give 100%. So fun to watch. I'm hoping for these guys to hit a little better because if they do, they 100% belong in the majors. They aren't far off.
-Peguero, Cheng and Alika Williams (who looked almost spectacular at third) are very solid defensively, but have a long way to go offensively.
-Nick Yorke is either hurt or just very unenthused. Terrible body language, the slowest walk back to his dug-out after strike-outs and walks almost all of the way out to left field instead of jogging. Plus he does not cover much ground out there, but that might just look that way compared to Billy and Jack. I'm almost hoping he is hurt and that would explain it.
-Can't wait for tonight's match-up of Bubba Chandler vs Tobias Myers.
I was there for that game too. He threw strikes in the first and they hit him. They found gaps and got 3 runs out of it. He came back and pitched strong for an inning or so. The rain started and he really struggled. With his funky pitches, he relies on tight grips which he was not getting. They played through a heavy rain for a while as he slipped off the mound for a balk call. They let him suffer for 8 runs.
My analysis last year was that he could be a sleeper because he has so many good pitches and I think he has the ability to fool hitters. Now that he is the Pirates number 3 prospect, he can't be a sleeper any more as the expectations might be a little high. I highly doubt he is hurt. Personally, I think he is who he is, minors or majors. He doesn't have that strong fast ball like most of the other prospects. Some games he will fool hitters and some games he won't..... regardless of the quality of batters.
Thanks, watching the Indy game last night makes me hope they move on from Pham. Get Jack up for another go at it or try to trade the guy. He looked like he was having fun out there. I know the problem though, where's the at bats going to come from, Canario needs them in left for his extended look. Maybe the Royals would want to give Jack a run after letting Renfroe go.
If the Pirates do trade Suwinski, I hope it is to the Royals, and yes, they could really use him. In the offseason, Bart is a guy who might be of great interest to the Royals. This is Perez's last year on his contract. They have a club option on him for next season at 13 million or so, but they should not pick it up. He is showing his age this season. Fermin and Melendez are really only suited to backup work at this point. They have some good young catching prospects, but they need a bridge to get them to Jensen and Mitchell. Jensen is still only 21 and probably will not be ready next year. Mitchell certainly will not be ready before 2027 at the earliest.
They need to release Pham and then do something like the following for every 12 games (4 series):
Cruz and Reynolds each play the OF for 9 games, DH for 2, and get a day off.
Canario and Suwinski each play the OF for 9 games, get 3 days off (until one earns more).
Cutch DH's 8 games, gets 4 days off (one per series, which seems about like what's been happening).
I.e., Cruz and Reynolds start 92% of our games, Canario and Suwinski start 75% of our games, and Cutch starts 67% of our games. This wouldn't be written in stone, of course, but I'd like to see something close to this.
The Pirates seem to have made a quick transition to becoming a competitive opponent for teams to prepare to play. We are currently fielding one of the best Rotations in MLB, and the hitters are starting to find ways to score runs. Therefore, we will be a team that will be tough for any contender to face, and we should use this time to make ourselves stronger for 2026.
The first step on the road to improvement is to face the realities of our lineup and start to work toward improving that lineup. We have needs and the most glaring are:
1. IKF is not what I see as a Shortstop for an MLB Contending Team. He will most likely be traded in July. Our only true SS with hope for a glove and a bat is Liover Peguero, who has been playing 1B the past 2 games in AAA. We need to accelerate our work with him to prep him for the Shortstop position, or find one somewhere (does not mean Jared Triolo or Nick Gonzales).
2. I do not see Nick Gonzales, 26, as our future at 2B. His hitting at the MLB level in 2023 left a lot to be desired. His hitting in 2024 was better (.709 OPS), but not much power and combined with a 4/1 K/BB rate - 19.12% K/4.65% BB, that just does not work for a contending team. Termarr Johnson, 21, is our future at 2B. He will probably be at AAA later this year, and we'll see how he adapts at that level. A real possibility in 2026.
3. The Pirates need another MOTO hitter, preferably a LH hitting OF who can handle the expanse of LF at PNC, take advantage of the majority of SP's being RH, and young enough to blend right in with this ballclub. Love to get Roman Anthony, but that is not happening. A few interesting possibilities are out there at AAA, such as Justin Crawford, 21, Phils, Emmanuel Rodriguez, 22, Twins, and others. Crawford has yet to become a power hitter, but currently has a 324/396/431/827 slash!
Happ for Heaney would be excellent, IMO. I like Bleday for Holderman, but that's a Huge stretch - and what would the Athletics do with H Man? This is a team that still has Bido as their No. 5 in the Rotation. We have a lot of SP and I think they would entertain Bleday for Burrows, or Ashcraft, or Mlodzinski.
Ashcraft is probably limited to the bullpen owing to durability. This guys has never pitched more than 80 innings in a season. It would probably be a fair trade, but one that is unlikely to interest Oakland, because they need starters, not relievers. Falter plus a lottery ticket for Bleday might be something that they consider.
I'm really not sure that Bleday would be a significant upgrade for the Pirates though. A 27-year old left-hander who has had some success at the MLB level, plays good defense, but with some underlying questions about whether he can sustain that success. That sure sounds a lot like a guy that the Pirates have already.
And yet that's still far better than JJ Bleday, who sucks.
Oakland's also been outscored by 100 runs. 40 more than the Pirates. They'd be idiots to trade anything worthwhile for a playoff run that's not gonna materialize.
The Athletics were a cool story for about six weeks till reality set in. Hey, we’re Pirates fans, we’ve experienced that too! Jest aside, I think they have some interesting pieces on that big club though.
Who are we willing to trade to get them. Bubba gets any of them, maybe with additional returns as well. Keller alone probably not. Those are our two big bullets. After that it is package deals that deliver improvement but not revolutional improvement. Sure, any hitting improvement is good, but one 5-6 WAR Guy is better than 3 2WAR guys. It's going to hurt to get a 5-6 WAR Guy. I'm ok trading Bubba for a 5-6 WAR OF, but not for 3 2 WAR guys.
I think they will trade Mitch Keller at the deadline. There are probably 5 or 6 teams that would like to have him in their Rotation down the stretch. We want a young LH hitting OF with both average and power, a K/BB of less than 2/1, and the ability to cover LF in PNC.
Therefore, we are looking at possibly 2/3 more years of Paul Skenes, so prepping Bubba to be our Ace is probably overdue already - BC is dragging his feet because he does not want to lose another year like was the case with Skenes. So, the Pirates will have Skenes for 2/3, Bubba, Jones, Ashcraft, Barco, Falter, and Harrington. And, don't forget Johan Oviedo.
I wish we were willing to finally spend a little more and keep our starting pitching.
The Tigers (who have the best record in baseball) had a rebuild similar to the Pirates. A big difference in my mind, is that the Tigers payroll is about 50 million higher. When I see MOTO guys like Pete Alonso sign for 2 years $54 million, it doesn't seem that far off on what we should be spending during are small window.
BTW, thanks for the update from AAA. The owner from Detroit is a guy who recognizes the need to spend. The amount of money the Pirates need to spend is my primary reason for thinking we will trade Mitch Keller and the remainder of the approximately $60 mil left on his contract. Then we will use some of that to hopefully sign Cruz for at least one and hopefully two of his FA years, and possibly a FA hitter for 2026.
Speaking of the Tigers, anyone think we could go 34-27 over our next 61 games? Seems a little farfetched but we are playing better.
Say we do, then we'll have the same record after 118 games, 55-63, that the Tigers had last year before they suddenly became the best team in baseball. Since then, they've gone an amazing 68-33, i.e., winning 2 of every 3 games!
I think those 2025 Tigers are a masterclass in momentum. Sometimes when you move from the basement to average the ball just keeps rolling.
They finally got a breakout from Tork and Greene and all the sudden Javy Baez and Gleybar are reincarnated and 30 yo Zach Mkinstry is rolling a career year and "org guy" Kerry Carpenter keeps hitting and boom, 6th best offense in baseball.
10th best rotation and 16th best relief corps in the game so far. Offense isn't even elite. Sometimes it doesn't take moving the world for everything to click.
I actually think the Tigers make a good trade partner with the pirates, they could use a utility infielder like IKF and a bullpen arm if one fits from the pirates pen. They have a few upper level guys blocked and have a stacked lower level system (we ain't getting those guys) to supplant their mlb regulars in a year or 2.
Justin Lebron is going to be on espn2, potential top 10 pick next year. Shortstop for Alabama. Quick is on the bump.
Cuvet a pirate pick is in the game as well for Miami.
Cuvet hit a 3 run homer.
Really wishing we had found a way to get that deal done
Just checked the complex league box score for today. Estuar Suero is doing absolutely nothing: .185/.292/.259. Another tools fail. And Severino is doing very little one level up. The Bucs can’t seem to make these toolsy trade targets work. I like the approach in theory, but the results are pitiful. The last hit is none other than Oneil Cruz for Tony Watson. Thank you Neal Huntington.
Watching Suero over lots of ABs, he actually looks worse than the numbers.
I think this conveniently ties to our evaluator comparison below.
The Bucs certainly aren't great, but the hit rate on these dudes *league wide* is atrocious.
I'd be curious where Law had guys like Suero, Severino, and YDLS compared to McDaniel. Longenhagen had all three in his top 15. BA only had Severino in their top 30, albeit up at #11.
Yeah.. going with a tools first-type evaluation priority is a high risk- high reward. People have a tendency to forget the high risk part of the calculus.
They’re high risk, but you have to hit on a few here and there. A quick scroll through bb-ref will show that many teams manage this on the int’l front. The Pirates don’t. They haven’t since Marte, unless you want to count Polanco, who was long ago himself.
I’d argue that a significant part of a GM’s job is playing the odds more effectively than the other guys. If over many years, one guy consistently wins at poker and another consistently loses, is the difference just luck?
"I’d argue that a significant part of a GM’s job is playing the odds more effectively than the other guys. If over many years, one guy consistently wins at poker and another consistently loses, is the difference just luck?"
Exactly this. The similarities between poker and baseball analytics are striking. I have been thinking this for almost a decade. There is a difference between a gamble and a smart bet, and sometimes that difference is only a few percentage points one way or another, but these small percentage differences add up to a big divergence in performance over time and reps.
Yeah, and we’ve seen that “big divergence” over Cherington’s failed tenure. He claims to be relying on projections, but when the “small percentage differences” come out on the negative side over and over and over, that should tell you that your data or your calculations are flawed. Yet he makes no changes in the way he operates.
That's why I really like Willits or Parker at pick 6 and Gray and Hartshorn in the 2nd round.
I would absolutely take a chance on that Hartshorn kid. You don't see that kind of power too often, and even if he hits only .200, he could still be a useful everyday player.
Taitn Gray probably has more power lol.
I’m almost positive that Law never had Suero or Severino in his Pirate top 20s. He may have had YDLS in the bottom ten.
NMR, I wrote this before I saw your latest post, but I guess this is what you are saying. These lottery tickets rarely pay off.
Ha, beat me to it! Fun convo.
For what it's worth, I'd still probably risk it as opposed to drafting a bunch of Mitch Jebb's.
Funny, I’m just starting to like Jebb.
Then again, a bunch of Jebbs . . . .
me too, but I Jebb in moderation.
Gotta Jebboo
My dude!
Haha, maybe it’s Cherington Low Bar Syndrome, but I’d just like to have an up-the-middle guy who can run, field and get on base. Even if he’s not an everyday type.
What a bunch of Jebbronis!
Surely you Jebb 😜
Probably shouldn’t forget, the round after Jebb they took another contact-oriented college hitter, Garret Forrester. He just got to high A.
Low-risk prospects? Haven’t seen one.
Also this, lol:
Jackie Daytona: Fun article from the Athletic on Skenes trades….is Skenes for Horton / Shaw / Alcantara even?
Eric A Longenhagen: Lol wut?
Eric A Longenhagen: Hold on lemme google this to see who wrote it
Eric A Longenhagen: Totally unsurprised
Yes, Bowden is a joke.
Those trade proposals were ridiculous lol
It’s just standard mediot-think where every top player is assumed to be headed to a big market asap.
Here's any interesting explainer for us stat nerds:
Ryan: How reliable are the contact rates Fangraphs reports on player pages in Rookie ball? There are guys with high whiff percentages and loud numbers, which I’m not used to seeing at higher levels. Is calibration inconsistent at such a low level, or is it an example of guys feasting on subpar stuff often enough to inflate their stats?
Eric A Longenhagen: They’re not correct because, depending on the setting, what gets marked as a swinging strike or looking strike might be automated. For instance, if you strike out swinging, the MLB auto stringer gives he player three swinging strikes in the at-bat. I’ve asked Sean about scrubbing that from the leaderboards but isolating that stat and leaving the other stuff is not feasible from a web developing standpoint.
Eric A Longenhagen: So just ignore those. I’m sorry, it’s not ideal, and hopefully at some point MLB will have more accurate, pitch by pitch data for those levels soon and it won’t be an issue anymore.
EL is correct. In fact, I think the problem is even larger. For most R level games, individual pitches aren’t tracked. It just assumes 3 strikes for a K and 4 balls for a BB, with no other pitches, ie, no fouls, no 2-2 or 3-2 counts, etc.
Top 4 college pitchers most likely starting for their respective teams today.
Fsu plays at 3pm Lsu plays at 3pm
Oklahoma at 5pm Tennessee at 6pm
Again not sure the aces will pitch but likely.
it's friday, they better!
Fsu didn't go with Arnold, Volini instead.
In a rain delay tied at 2.
Saw Peterson on Florida (one of the top 26 arms) got bounced early.
Yep, I was surprised only Doyle started today out of this year's top 4.
Only reason they wouldn't other than health is 3 of the 4 play smaller schools today and might want to save their top guys. Oklahoma being the exception. I still think they'll all go with their top guys though, sure don't want to be upset the first day.
So Keith Law did a chat yesterday based on his top 50 prospects. He fielded another set of questions from at least five people asking why Griffin didn’t make the list. Law continues to insist that while Griffin is impressive, he is still not addressing the fundamental problems with his approach, especially pitch recognition.
Other Pirates notes:
1) Law conceded that Termarr has been better recently, but he wants to see him sustain this progress.
2) When asked for a sleeper pick or someone impressive that is not yet on the radar in the Pirates’ system, he cited Wyatt Sanford. This fits with Law’s approach, which emphasizes making contact and controlling the strike zone as markers for future success (as opposed to Kiley McDaniels, who places more emphasis on pure tools.)
On the Fangraphs chat today, EL fielded a chat on K rates, and cited a 75% contact rate for Griffin, which would be a shade below MLB average, but not sure. He said it’s more granular (and reliable data) than K rate. I’m unsure of how to find that metric on the FG leaderboard, but that’s not surprising since I’m only slightly more tech savvy than Creed Bratton.
allll the way down on his player page under the Plate Discipline-Statcast header, "Contact%".
i won't bother trying to send a zoom link to share screens. ;)
Appreciate it, thanks. I was looking for contact percentage on a leaderboard page as opposed to the individual player pages.
And EL is right, a percentage such as KG’s is by no means a death sentence. Walcott, Basallo, Lawlar, Williams, Mayer, etc are all around Griffin’s percentage or lower.
speaking of Lawlar, that was a pretty brutal take in the chat.
watch Hank end up the better hitter of he, Lawlar, and Mayer. will match my genius call that they should've drafted zac veen over nicky gonzalez.
For so many players, the outlooks swings incredibly widely from one side to the other. Just weeks ago, Hank had the worst WAR of any #1 overall pick. At the end of this season, that outlook could change entirely.
I think the pirates should try to trade for Veen. Rockies need pitching and have way more outfield depth in the upper minors. There's not a lot of near ready outfielders available out there, the pirates need to be creative.
I appreciate all three of those takes, actually.
Somewhere between 50-100 seems pretty reasonable for Griffin and I'm not generally a fan of the outlets who make wild swings in prospect status one way or another. I still think Griffin's swing was equal or greater a concern as his approach and the swing improvements are undeniable, but overall don't get much heartburn in generally seeing him somewhere in the top hundo.
Thanks for sharing.
I don’t have a subscription to Baseball America anymore, so I don’t know where they come down on the tools vs. control of the strike zone debate (if you can call it that). Similarly I don’t know where Callis and Mayo come down either. But the contrast between Law and McDaniel is really striking to me. McDaniel, for example, was the first guy with a national platform to more or less say I don’t give a damn about his current production, but I *love* to watch Oneil Cruz play baseball. Whereas Law is such a stickler for contact and guys who walk as much or more than they strikeout. Obviously I don’t have the time to review each of their hit rates on prospects, but it would make for an interesting study.
I should add that part of the reason that Law is so down on Termarr is that he bought into the whole best contact/hit tool in the 2022 draft hype. So he feels quite let down by his performance to date.
It's a great question.
If I were a betting man I'd put a healthy wager on Law winning that one. We forget about far more teenage studs than we remember turn into actual stars, and Oneil Cruz is at a level where he's the most physically talented dude nearly every time he steps onto a diamond. Applying his eventual success to prospects who follow, woof, that's an awfully high talent bar to match in order to cover the flaws.
As a mater of probability, you're probably safest hedging bets on guys that don't get beat at the lowest level in the most obvious manner players fail at the highest.
Callis/Mayo/Pipeline aren't a serious outfit, they're a promo arm for MLB.
Longenhagen/Fangraphs are a pretty close comp to Kiley in that they love to pump super young athletes who might not hit and then drop them when they don't.
To my eye, BA is a pretty good average of the Law/McDaniel spectrum.
Totally agree on the FG take with young guys, usually on the backfield. The write up of YDLS was like that, same with Caba.
-After 3 straight games in Indy, here is my report. The comradery with the pitchers seems to be real. I know it sounds corny, but they are upbeat and engaged before the game and during the game. It is like a good high school or college team. Carson Fulmer seems to accepted his role nicely.
-I can't say the same for the hitters. Not that it is bad, but I think several know they are not the fun young upcoming prospects like they were 2 years ago. Some are on their final straw and know it.
-Maybe the most exciting thing to watch in person is watching Jack Suwinski and Billy Cook cover ground in the outfield. They are fast and give 100%. So fun to watch. I'm hoping for these guys to hit a little better because if they do, they 100% belong in the majors. They aren't far off.
-Peguero, Cheng and Alika Williams (who looked almost spectacular at third) are very solid defensively, but have a long way to go offensively.
-Nick Yorke is either hurt or just very unenthused. Terrible body language, the slowest walk back to his dug-out after strike-outs and walks almost all of the way out to left field instead of jogging. Plus he does not cover much ground out there, but that might just look that way compared to Billy and Jack. I'm almost hoping he is hurt and that would explain it.
-Can't wait for tonight's match-up of Bubba Chandler vs Tobias Myers.
Did you see Harrington? What is wrong with him? Could he be hurt? Just doesn't seem like the same pitcher.
I was there for that game too. He threw strikes in the first and they hit him. They found gaps and got 3 runs out of it. He came back and pitched strong for an inning or so. The rain started and he really struggled. With his funky pitches, he relies on tight grips which he was not getting. They played through a heavy rain for a while as he slipped off the mound for a balk call. They let him suffer for 8 runs.
My analysis last year was that he could be a sleeper because he has so many good pitches and I think he has the ability to fool hitters. Now that he is the Pirates number 3 prospect, he can't be a sleeper any more as the expectations might be a little high. I highly doubt he is hurt. Personally, I think he is who he is, minors or majors. He doesn't have that strong fast ball like most of the other prospects. Some games he will fool hitters and some games he won't..... regardless of the quality of batters.
i watched some of the game last night. I get major Tabata vibes anytime I watch Yorke.
Willing to wear one to break up a perfect game?
cougar in the wives section?
New tattoo incoming?
Thanks, watching the Indy game last night makes me hope they move on from Pham. Get Jack up for another go at it or try to trade the guy. He looked like he was having fun out there. I know the problem though, where's the at bats going to come from, Canario needs them in left for his extended look. Maybe the Royals would want to give Jack a run after letting Renfroe go.
If the Pirates do trade Suwinski, I hope it is to the Royals, and yes, they could really use him. In the offseason, Bart is a guy who might be of great interest to the Royals. This is Perez's last year on his contract. They have a club option on him for next season at 13 million or so, but they should not pick it up. He is showing his age this season. Fermin and Melendez are really only suited to backup work at this point. They have some good young catching prospects, but they need a bridge to get them to Jensen and Mitchell. Jensen is still only 21 and probably will not be ready next year. Mitchell certainly will not be ready before 2027 at the earliest.
They need to release Pham and then do something like the following for every 12 games (4 series):
Cruz and Reynolds each play the OF for 9 games, DH for 2, and get a day off.
Canario and Suwinski each play the OF for 9 games, get 3 days off (until one earns more).
Cutch DH's 8 games, gets 4 days off (one per series, which seems about like what's been happening).
I.e., Cruz and Reynolds start 92% of our games, Canario and Suwinski start 75% of our games, and Cutch starts 67% of our games. This wouldn't be written in stone, of course, but I'd like to see something close to this.
Makes sense
The Pirates seem to have made a quick transition to becoming a competitive opponent for teams to prepare to play. We are currently fielding one of the best Rotations in MLB, and the hitters are starting to find ways to score runs. Therefore, we will be a team that will be tough for any contender to face, and we should use this time to make ourselves stronger for 2026.
The first step on the road to improvement is to face the realities of our lineup and start to work toward improving that lineup. We have needs and the most glaring are:
1. IKF is not what I see as a Shortstop for an MLB Contending Team. He will most likely be traded in July. Our only true SS with hope for a glove and a bat is Liover Peguero, who has been playing 1B the past 2 games in AAA. We need to accelerate our work with him to prep him for the Shortstop position, or find one somewhere (does not mean Jared Triolo or Nick Gonzales).
2. I do not see Nick Gonzales, 26, as our future at 2B. His hitting at the MLB level in 2023 left a lot to be desired. His hitting in 2024 was better (.709 OPS), but not much power and combined with a 4/1 K/BB rate - 19.12% K/4.65% BB, that just does not work for a contending team. Termarr Johnson, 21, is our future at 2B. He will probably be at AAA later this year, and we'll see how he adapts at that level. A real possibility in 2026.
3. The Pirates need another MOTO hitter, preferably a LH hitting OF who can handle the expanse of LF at PNC, take advantage of the majority of SP's being RH, and young enough to blend right in with this ballclub. Love to get Roman Anthony, but that is not happening. A few interesting possibilities are out there at AAA, such as Justin Crawford, 21, Phils, Emmanuel Rodriguez, 22, Twins, and others. Crawford has yet to become a power hitter, but currently has a 324/396/431/827 slash!
nobody trades young hitters any more
best bet is a bounce back ala AJ Burnet, Liriano, Russell Martin
switch hitting Ian Happ for Heaney
right handed Royce Lewis for Harrington
right handed Javiar Baez for KeBryan
JJ Bleday for Holderman
Happ for Heaney would be excellent, IMO. I like Bleday for Holderman, but that's a Huge stretch - and what would the Athletics do with H Man? This is a team that still has Bido as their No. 5 in the Rotation. We have a lot of SP and I think they would entertain Bleday for Burrows, or Ashcraft, or Mlodzinski.
Gotta do better than Bleday for Ashcraft. JJ's 2023 was a mirage.
That's the outlier...other than that he's lucky to be replacement.
Ashcraft is probably limited to the bullpen owing to durability. This guys has never pitched more than 80 innings in a season. It would probably be a fair trade, but one that is unlikely to interest Oakland, because they need starters, not relievers. Falter plus a lottery ticket for Bleday might be something that they consider.
I'm really not sure that Bleday would be a significant upgrade for the Pirates though. A 27-year old left-hander who has had some success at the MLB level, plays good defense, but with some underlying questions about whether he can sustain that success. That sure sounds a lot like a guy that the Pirates have already.
And yet that's still far better than JJ Bleday, who sucks.
Oakland's also been outscored by 100 runs. 40 more than the Pirates. They'd be idiots to trade anything worthwhile for a playoff run that's not gonna materialize.
The Athletics were a cool story for about six weeks till reality set in. Hey, we’re Pirates fans, we’ve experienced that too! Jest aside, I think they have some interesting pieces on that big club though.
I don't see how trading for a lesser version of Jack Suwinski helps the Pirates in any way.
Who are we willing to trade to get them. Bubba gets any of them, maybe with additional returns as well. Keller alone probably not. Those are our two big bullets. After that it is package deals that deliver improvement but not revolutional improvement. Sure, any hitting improvement is good, but one 5-6 WAR Guy is better than 3 2WAR guys. It's going to hurt to get a 5-6 WAR Guy. I'm ok trading Bubba for a 5-6 WAR OF, but not for 3 2 WAR guys.
IMHO Chandler will NOT be traded under any circumstances.
I think they will trade Mitch Keller at the deadline. There are probably 5 or 6 teams that would like to have him in their Rotation down the stretch. We want a young LH hitting OF with both average and power, a K/BB of less than 2/1, and the ability to cover LF in PNC.
Therefore, we are looking at possibly 2/3 more years of Paul Skenes, so prepping Bubba to be our Ace is probably overdue already - BC is dragging his feet because he does not want to lose another year like was the case with Skenes. So, the Pirates will have Skenes for 2/3, Bubba, Jones, Ashcraft, Barco, Falter, and Harrington. And, don't forget Johan Oviedo.
and Mlod
and Burrows
and left handed starter reclamation projects which BC has had a lot of success with
Mitch Keller is enough to fetch Dylon Crews or Sam Basallo?
I wish we were willing to finally spend a little more and keep our starting pitching.
The Tigers (who have the best record in baseball) had a rebuild similar to the Pirates. A big difference in my mind, is that the Tigers payroll is about 50 million higher. When I see MOTO guys like Pete Alonso sign for 2 years $54 million, it doesn't seem that far off on what we should be spending during are small window.
BTW, thanks for the update from AAA. The owner from Detroit is a guy who recognizes the need to spend. The amount of money the Pirates need to spend is my primary reason for thinking we will trade Mitch Keller and the remainder of the approximately $60 mil left on his contract. Then we will use some of that to hopefully sign Cruz for at least one and hopefully two of his FA years, and possibly a FA hitter for 2026.
Speaking of the Tigers, anyone think we could go 34-27 over our next 61 games? Seems a little farfetched but we are playing better.
Say we do, then we'll have the same record after 118 games, 55-63, that the Tigers had last year before they suddenly became the best team in baseball. Since then, they've gone an amazing 68-33, i.e., winning 2 of every 3 games!
I think those 2025 Tigers are a masterclass in momentum. Sometimes when you move from the basement to average the ball just keeps rolling.
They finally got a breakout from Tork and Greene and all the sudden Javy Baez and Gleybar are reincarnated and 30 yo Zach Mkinstry is rolling a career year and "org guy" Kerry Carpenter keeps hitting and boom, 6th best offense in baseball.
Tigers slow rebuild seems like a smashing success. Baltimore not so much.
10th best rotation and 16th best relief corps in the game so far. Offense isn't even elite. Sometimes it doesn't take moving the world for everything to click.
I actually think the Tigers make a good trade partner with the pirates, they could use a utility infielder like IKF and a bullpen arm if one fits from the pirates pen. They have a few upper level guys blocked and have a stacked lower level system (we ain't getting those guys) to supplant their mlb regulars in a year or 2.
.500 record buys you a wildcard birth
It took 89 wins in the NL and 86 in the AL last year.