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Even the Supposed Powerhouses Have Struggled Lately

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/even-the-supposed-powerhouses-have-struggled-lately/

Reading only the fanfiction produced by Pittsburgh baseball media would leave you completely unaware that an enormous amount of parity currently exists in Major League Baseball.

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Nice to see some recognition for Termarr Johnson. He did very well for the Pirates in ST which earned him a spot back in A+. He has struggled this year, if we can call a .753 OPS struggling for a kid who is the youngest player for the Pirates in A+, and if he was in A Ball, there would only be about 8 or 9 players/pitchers younger than him. 50 games/438 innings as a second baseman and a .972 fielding percentage, 33 games/280 innings as a SS with a .948 fielding percentage. 16 doubles, 12 HR, 44 RBI mostly from leadoff, 15/18 SB, 75 BB/99 K.

IKF, Williams, Bae, Triolo, Gonzales, Yorke, Peguero, Cheng, Glenn, Pichardo - a few more and we can field an entire defensive group made up of all MI's. Took Williams in trade in 2023, Pichardo in trade in 2024 for Wolf, and now York and IKF in trades about a month ago.

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Slow Monday here...With some time on my hands, I wanted to see how the World Series champs have a worse record than the Pirates.

Major regression and big prospects not producing...

-Wyatt Langford with a 90 wRC+

-Evan Carter, replacement level with a 78 wRC+

-Jace Jung is replacement level, k rate north of 30%

-Jack Leiter looking like a complete and total bust...era over 16 in 3 starts

-Jonah Heim went from a 4-win player to replacement this season

-Adolis Garcia went from a 4-1/2 win player to replacement

-Leodys Taveras went from exactly a league average bat, to 18% below league ave

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It's like they contracted with Andy Haines to be a supplemental hitting coach.

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I really hope there is a new manager at a minimum and heaven knows we need to spend some money on offense but I'm legitimately excited about 2025 with the rotation as well as the emergence of Joey Bart. I know I shouldn't do this to myself but I'm really starting to believe he is real deal and we might have found our own Brent Rooker.

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I don't know that I see a .275 hitter moving forward but power over hit catcher with average-ish defense is exactly what he was expected to be before things went sideways for him and we all should know by now to be patient with catcher dev. He's pretty clearly the starter, or at least should be, heading into 2025.

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It’s not a direct similarity but maybe something like Zunino with less K’s and less defense would still be a good regular.

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I wonder if the "Ke's back might be bad forever" puff piece was the team hoping for some deflection from all the Fire Shelton and Cherington press.

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Aug 19·edited Aug 19

I just now realized that Ryder Ryan is River Ryan's older brother.

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Did we get the lesser brother again? Walker, Ryan, Palacios

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We always get the lesser of two weevils.

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Aug 19·edited Aug 19

McKinney should make the team better. NO ONE has ever said!

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Interesting article at the PG regarding Hayes. Makes total sense. Just get the GD surgery now and come back healthy for next season. You can't play baseball with herniated discs.

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It was a strange article though because it also floated that perhaps Hayes’ career would be revived on another team? If the back is the issue then how would that follow?

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Aug 19·edited Aug 19

Shitty journalism.

The entire piece is directly about his chronic back issues and the line directly before the quote is literally "Yes, he told me, *provided the medical stuff checks out*" which completely invalidates the entire proposition.

Yet Mackey still ran it. Because he's a shitty journalist.

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The part of him playing high school QB and getting sacked by the Brashear DB. lol

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dude, thank you. i'm not the only who made the jerk off motion when reading that.

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Would surgery even help? Maybe I didn't read it carefully enough.

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They have to try something, right? He's almost unplayable as is

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This does ask some very uncomfortable questions about chronic issues. Guy doesn't make it to 30 at this rate.

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And surgery in no way suggests he'll be a better player going forward.

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Honestly surprised it took this long for the club and player to state the obvious.

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You don't regress from a consistent 3-win player to replacement from your age 26 to age 27 season without something being terribly wrong.

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Yeah mate...Atleast some, probably expected, news on why he declined so harshly... I know Hayes wasn't a star but there had to be a reason for this fall, most knew this news was coming 🤷‍♂️

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I've been pretty dismissive over his health as *the* reason his performance has fluctuated as much as it his along with his inability to actually get better, but at this point, it's harder and harder to ignore it.

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It’s unbelievable that he’s still playing, and this is the team that sits everybody “out of abundance of caution” and runs out to check Cruz every time he lands on his his ankle funny running the bases…

I’m sure he wants to finish the season and feels like he’s letting the team down, but he’s not doing anyone any favors by continuing to play every night. Milwaukee shut down Yelich so he could get a back procedure done and they’re in first place. They have no excuse, shut down Hayes.

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It doesn't sound like there's even been a ton of thought given to sitting him and looking at medical options. Sounds like they're still in the denial phase:

“I just want to be out there,” Hayes said. “I love playing baseball. I love being here and love being out there with my teammates. As hard as it is some days, whenever I don’t feel great, I still try to go out there and be there for my team.

*“We’re still right there in the playoff hunt.* I’m just trying my best to give whatever I can.”

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something like this must kickoff the insurance policy they took out on his contract, no?

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I'm not certain of the particulars

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Jeez if there is a surgical option that could help him here longer term, it's inexplicable that he isn't shut down now to pursue it. He sure isn't helping us win this season, and we can certainly continue to lose without him.

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There is no surgery that can help him with this.

“My whole issue is the disc has lost its jelly stuff,” Hayes said. “When we look at the MRIs, [the discs are] just kind of compressing. I don’t know that it’s rubbing, but it’s definitely a little collapsed to where there’s pressure, inflammation builds up, and muscles want to try to protect."

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With all due respect, Dr. Clinton, you're dead wrong.

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You can replace a disc but you can't do anything about "the jelly stuff". The only disc replacement in MLB so far was Jesse Winker and that was an upper disc that caused him neck mobility issues. Even if he goes forward with the disc replacement and that improves his condition, Winker was abysmal the season after his so expect a lost year. Maybe they'd get _something_ out of Hayes in 2026 and be able to trade his last three years. Maybe.

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Maybe get a procedure done like Tiger Woods.

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Hasn't he had five spinal surgeries? If Hayes followed a similar path, that'd carry us all the way to his 2030 option season.

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In looking over FG's playoff odds, it's somewhat remarkable how quickly the NL's playoff picture has clarified from a few weeks ago when it looked like we were in for a crazy, chaotic, exciting September. But now we have six teams with an 81% chance or higher of making the playoffs and correspondingly only the Mets at 22% have more than an 8% chance. September looks to be mostly about seeding, which after last year doesn't even seem that important. Maybe one of the also-rans goes on a 9-1 stretch or something, but more likely it's just taken ~120 games for the contenders to separate themselves from the pretenders.

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Is this Mel, or just another guy from TN with good analysis and writing skills? Nice job!

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McKinney has had a very good year when healthy, and at the very least calling him up is a nice gesture.

As for who he replaces, I'd guess Williams but I'd also like to see Taylor and Tellez put on waivers to give them the opportunity to compete in a pennant race and open up opportunities for others. I don't think they will do that (and I'm not sure either would be claimed anyway) because Shelton will push to beat last year's record to strengthen the case that he should be retained.

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I think the ship has sailed on unloading MAT or Tellez. BC could make a few phone calls just to see if anyone is interested. Gesture is the best I can think about with McKinney. Be nice and smart if we gave both Cook and Yorke a look to see if they could be possible's for the future.

A few months ago I suggested bringing Gorski up for what would probably be a last chance for him, but I guess it's better if we give a 30 year old who has had chances with 6 other MLB teams that chance. Could not understand why they called up Williams in the first place when the DH went on the IL - maybe it's his bat?

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Trying to make rhyme or reason out of what Cherington does is futile.

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I like the idea here...I just don't know who they can put in CF.

Suwinski has no business playing in the show and I don't think I could watch Bae play the next 40 games in CF. I also don't think it would be fair to the pitchers to put guys like McKinney out there.

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Suwinski needs probably at least half a year in AAA to totally rework his approach at the plate, which in this org will almost certainly be successful. /s He's been even worse in AAA than he was with the Pirates. He shouldn't be even on the fringes of the discussion for the majors until he shows substantial progress in AAA.

McKinney in center . . . . . that's a hard no.

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I'm honestly surprised he isn't on the dev list

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Cherington has shown us he has no regard for whats fair to his pitchers.

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