89 Comments

Someone might need to help me out here, but how does Jazz help the Pirates line-up? This is his 5th year in the majors while his best batting average is .254. Coming into this year, the most walks he has had in a season is 34. We are 3 games past the all-star break and Jazz has already struck out 106 times this year. He does have 19 stolen bases, but he has been caught 8 times. That is stealing at a 70% clip, below league average. Again, where does he help a need in the line-up?

Expand full comment

If he was on the Pirates, he'd be their 3rd best player.

Average stick and average D for a CF'er is good.

We currently have Suwinski and he is bad at both. Objectively bad.

I don't care if it's Jazz, but I would think CF is priority.

Expand full comment

Let's be fair. If he was on the Pirates, we don't know if he would be better or if he would be worse. Yes Jack and Taylor have not hit, we need another bat. That doesn't justify us trading top prospects to get an average stick and defender, especially if we are trying to make the play-offs. I'm seeing a lot of red flags, if the Pirates acquired him the fans would not get the player they expected...... similar to how we wanted Chris Archer to be the star.

Expand full comment

I don't want him personally and definitely not for the prospect cost.

Expand full comment
Jul 22·edited Jul 22

Generically speaking I think Jazz would be better than whatever we are running out in RF and CF. At this point he is an ok major league starter which Pirates have not had in those two spots. But I just don't see the upgrade worth the prospect cost like BJLC said. Given the Pirates need upgrades in several spots, I think using that same prospect capital somewhere else now or in the off season will be prospect cost better spent. Whether the front office can do that is a different debate.

Expand full comment

I'm almost ready to give Matt Gorski a try. Cannon for an arm. 16 homers. His strike out rate is about the same as Jazz. He is explosive enough to win games and inconsistent enough to make bad outs when you need to move a runner.

Expand full comment
Jul 22·edited Jul 22

I don't know Jason Shetler, but he seems fairly knowledgeable about baseball. He proposed this trade on X...

Pit gets Jazz

Fish get De Los Santos, Peguero & Gorksi.

I would bet Fish say no and I don't understand the Gorski inclusion.

I get the DLS inclusion as they're looking to rebuild and he has a ton of raw talent and they've always had a thing for Peguero (I think)

Expand full comment
author

Wouldn’t mind tossing in Yordany, even though I think he’s a solid player. Rest of that though won’t move the needle much I feel like.

If healthy, I’d be ok with like Ashcraft, Yordany and someone else in the lower levels.

Not sure I’d want to go above that.

Also Ash is hurt right now so it doesn’t really matter.

I know you probably have to come off a prospect at some point, but it’d be hard pressed to throw Harrington in this deal.

Expand full comment

Agreed, feels like Harrington might be worst combo of value x potential.

Expand full comment

Baseball Trade Bible thinks you could add Jared Jones to Shetler's mock package and we're right there for Jazz.

Expand full comment

No offense, but the Bible is wrong on this one. Jones has more value alone than Jazz straight up.

Expand full comment

I don't think they are ever _that_ wrong. Hit rate is 92% iirc. As evidenced by the trade value series which will never ever have a pitcher at it's top, hitting is always more valuable in the market than pitching, Jones has 91 innings of MLB pitching under his belt, his control has been real bad (4 bb/9) since May 10, he's got 2 pitches and a hurt lat. He _might be_ Spencer Strider (also hurt) but odds are he'll be more inconsistent than that. Still very valuable but not as much so as a 26 year old mlb average hitter CF even if he's not a good defensive CF. Let's not get high on hype for Jones just yet. He's fun to watch but the key is consistency and health. Does he have those? Unclear yet.

Expand full comment

They're wrong on this one...

Jones is rated 45th according to FG for trade value.

Jazz isn't on the list, and I don't see him making an appearance.

Bottom line - Jared Jones is worth more than Jazz in trade value.

Expand full comment

What's the current value of Skenes? I still think they undervalue starters, overvalue relievers and inflate prospects of certain teams like the Yankees and Dodgers.

Expand full comment
author

Should add I really don’t like doing mock trades. Too many factors.

Expand full comment

Marlins giving up 35.8 surplus value to Pirates...9.5 according to the Baseball Trade Bible. Don't think so. You could add Termarr and you're still only to 22.8 (although I think he'll be worth much more by their model once they do the next update).

Expand full comment

boy that seems like a stretch.

Fish might be worse at hitter dev than even the Bucs and those are three dudes who can't hit.

Expand full comment

It's a shame Termarr doesn't play for the Yankees or Dodgers farm teams, he's arguably having better years than Spencer Jones and Rushing. If only he wasn't 3 years younger at A+ he might be worth more than a 1/3 of their value.

Expand full comment

Jones gets a 32.5. Rushing a 29.1. Termarr a 13.3 but tbf at last update Termarr was mired in a pretty slow start. Sounds like they need to increase the frequency of their updates and check their system biases although maybe some bias is warranted given some teams do dev better than others.

Expand full comment

Again thanks, not criticizing your opinion, it's valid just stating mine below.

Expand full comment

Naw all good. I agree with you that Dollars and Yanks prospects tend to get a big boost.

Expand full comment

Both Jones and Rushing had long stretches of struggling at high A last year at age 22 with lower walk and higher strikeout rates. Termarr struggled as a 19 year old (been straight cash since turning 20). It shows clear system biase when considering pedigree and draft position. If Rushing was a great defensive catcher and Jones was a sure fire plus center fielder, it would equal the value but they are not.

Thanks again and it is true with teams and development, but it's a slap in the face with that wide a margin of the 3 players in terms of actual production and value. If it gets rectified in the next update Termarr should be higher value than either are now, Termarr has been a .900+ OPS(since turning 20) while the other 2 haven't broke .800 in the same time frame.

Expand full comment

Add one of the upper-level arms and it might get their attention

Expand full comment

Just saw a stat that Keller is winless in his last 9 starts vs. the Cardinals with an ERA of 5.07 over that time. With Nootbar back , Burleson and Winn swinging hot bats we need a good showing from Keller. With how good he has been it seems STL may be his Kryptonite

Expand full comment

I don't have any idea when Mitch made all those starts. If it was in the last 14 months then I see it as being meaningful. If the majority of those starts were during his 'growing pains', then those stats seem about right and he might have that against several clubs.

Expand full comment

FG starting their trade value series today and I noticed Ke fell off the list. Wonder if our representatives will be Reynolds, Cruz, Keller, Skenes and Jones? Jones is 45. Edited to share the Jones writeup:

"Jones was the most controversial pitcher of this group in my cross-checking process, but not in any consistent direction. The anti-Jones case is easy enough to make: He’s a littler dude, listed at 6-foot-1 and 180 pounds, with outrageous velocity and (until this year) scattershot command. Pitchers of his general stature and style have excelled (Spencer Strider and Tim Lincecum come to mind), but durability has always been a concern. Jones has only made two starts on regular rest this year, and he’s currently on the IL with a lat strain. Scary!

The pro-Jones case is even more straightforward: The only starter in all of baseball with a better fastball is Paul Skenes. With beautiful shape and newly pinpoint command, Jones comes after hitters early and often. He’s missing bats at an elite rate as a rookie with only two pitches, and his curveball and changeup are both promising. He could excel as a two-pitch guy with good command or as one who improves either of those options just slightly. Getting 150 innings a year of a Strider starter kit makes for a tremendous pitcher, even before you consider how much he might improve with a little more experience.

I put Jones at the head of this group because I think he’s the most likely to end up as a true ace, but I’m sympathetic to the argument that he’s also the riskiest of this tier. He won’t reach free agency until after the 2029 season, and still has two more years at the league minimum, so we’re talking bargain-basement costs here. Even if Jones spends the next half-decade as a streaky and sometimes-injured rotation option, he’ll be a tremendous value to whichever team rosters him. The chance of spectacular success puts him over the edge for me."

Expand full comment

kinda surprised how much staying power they're giving Jones' command. Sure seems to have regressed.

Expand full comment

I think Clemens just really likes watching Jones pitch honestly. Basically a 4.7 FIP and walking 4 dudes per 9 since May 10. This is why I've been banging the drum on him being the asset to trade while perception of value is at his highest but then he got hurt so...

Expand full comment

It's wild to me that they think more of Jared Jones than Grayson Rodriguez.

Expand full comment

Really anticipating his return.

Does he come back like the first 7 or so starts or does he look like the pitcher from his last 7 or so starts?

Do you really believe the lat injury? Or do you think it's a ploy to limit his innings?

Expand full comment

I'm sure innings are an influence but also doesn't seem like you should mess with lats and obliques, kinda things that just linger on if you don't nip 'em in the bud.

Expand full comment

I agree. Look no farther than Bednar.

Expand full comment

Won’t be Cruz. He was listed in the HM. It’s a tough list, so it may be just Skenes and Jones.

Expand full comment

oops, missed that one thanks

Expand full comment

Yep. My guess is Keller/Reynolds won’t be on there because of their contracts related to their production I’d think if a guy like Jarren Duran, who’s already put up 4 fWAR and making less than $1M isn’t on it, those guys won’t either.

Expand full comment

Makes sense to me.

Expand full comment

i´ve heard him mentioned as a littler dude before but i didnt know that he is 6´1

that is not a littler dude size

Expand full comment

okay short king

Expand full comment

Lmfao

Expand full comment

-It's the curse of being the most talented man on the field every time he suits up, but yesterday is the definitional example of what we mean when we say the only thing holding O'neil Cruz back is his own lack of discipline. MLB is too damn hard to flat-out take games off and that's clearly what we saw yesterday. But I guess that makes me racist or whatever.

-This is gonna sound more pissy than I mean it to be but it took like two slow weeks to get articles written about Andy Haines ruining Termarr Johnson and yet he's been on absolute fucking fire for TWO MONTHS with barely a peep. The Pirates have a borderline elite hitting prospect and you'd barely know it.

-Okay maybe I meant that to be a LITTLE pissy. ;)

Expand full comment

Do you think termarr is untouchable as a prospect or would you deal him for the right deal?

Expand full comment

I don't think there are guys that are untouchable, but just guys we value more than other teams, so we won't get the return we want. If I'm GM, I don't throw Harrington out there in a deal, not be because he is so great, but because I see a hidden value that other GMs probably don't. Teams probably don't ask about Cutch or Bednar because they know what he means to the city of Pittsburgh. I think Termarr is almost untouchable, if all we got was a rental in return. The Orioles were able to get Corbin Burnes and hold onto their top 6 prospects.

Expand full comment

But not all top six prospects are the same. Baltimore’s system was (and is) much better than Pgh’s.

Expand full comment

Baltimore's is loaded, still the fact that they were able to hang on to all 6 of them was a shock.

Expand full comment
Jul 22·edited Jul 22

Oh not even close to untouchable for me. I don't think there's one of those in the system right now.

If anyone it would be Griffin, IMO.

Expand full comment

I've been on this bandwagon for ever - nobody is untouchable - Bubba for Crews - do we not consider it? Not happening and IMO the Pirates would be the team adding to that trade. But that is what is becoming my worn out example of why nobody is untouchable.

Expand full comment

Agreed, and Griffin as my pick is only because I don't think you really get much value out of him before anybody sees what he can do in pro ball. Just isn't worth the risk.

Expand full comment

-On my drive yesterday, I listened to the Chicago station where they were actually talking about the Pirates. The guy said what a load of talent Cruz has, but there are days he just acts like he doesn't want to be there. I have said that to myself many times and it is very frustrating.

-I think he is needed for the Pirates to be a play-off team. I thought he was engaged this whole series. I don't know if it was someone got in his ear after the break, if he just got healthy, he sees the Pirates can win, or he was just energized by the fans. Then he goes and drops 3 balls yesterday and he got as mad as I've ever seen him in the dugout. I was actually happy to see that instead of him just pouting. I think he might have been a little too amped up...... and also probably says that shortstop is not his natural position.

Expand full comment
Jul 22·edited Jul 22

Brimstone & Fire!

Hopefully, the maturity comes before the decline in physical gifts with Oneil.

I'm guessing Termarr gets promoted to Altoona in the coming weeks. Like you said, he's been on fire for 2 months.

Expand full comment

I bet folks just don't like the batting average that low that far from MLB on Termarr. Not saying I agree with that but that's probably at least part of why he doesn't get hyped a bunch.

I don't think you're racist to call Cruz out. He does have those games and it's a shame because he is supremely gifted when he applies himself.

Expand full comment

I agree with that take on Termarr. Fans don't get super excited when a guy raises his cumulative average to just .247. Now if he started out hitting in April the way he has hit in July, that would have everyone excited. .381 batting average .500 obp and 1.167 ops.

Expand full comment

To me he has proven ready for AA but I will not stress when that comes as I anticipate that will be his home most of next year. Overall, he continues to progress for a high school draftee.

Expand full comment

Honestly stoked to see them making him learn to play and not just check the box.

Expand full comment

Should be noted that it took a somewhat miraculous comeback from 7-4 deficit in game 1 to win the phillies series. Yeah great we won 2 out of 3. Shelton gambled with Perez and we luckily caught a not sharp after the layoff Kerkering and Alvarado. Ok moving on but it was still a poor decision for unknown reasons.

Expand full comment

That was a bummer yesterday, but still a very solid series against a big-time team without Skenes/Keller/Jones being involved. It was still competitive until Cruz's bungle in the 7th...and maybe it would have been more competitive without the ridiculous Hayes 3-0 green light in the 4th. Hopefully, we can turn it around against the Cards tonight.

Oh, and whatever was going on in the game thread late yesterday...c'mon. Seemed to be a prime example of what Anthony was talking about a week or so ago.

Expand full comment
Jul 22·edited Jul 22

Random suggestion and I should have posted this 3 weeks ago. When does Bae get another shot? I preach AAA is not MLB, but we scan other teams for prospects blocked in CF and I see Bae just continuing to get hits, it seems it couldn't hurt. A straight Jack - Bae swap. I say I should have posted this 3 weeks ago because I am not saying this is the 'trade deadline' upgrade we want, but I think he would have been worth the run. Related: I am not enamored with any of the CF options that seem to be floating out there sometimes partly because I feel they will cost more than some think. I trust Robert the most for a long term upgrade but I just don't see White Sox trading him for anything but what they conceive as an overpay at this time At some point Pirates may need to overpay some for a player but I don't want the pressure of a pennant race to cause a knee jerk move. I wish there was a bigger supply of outfield options via trade.

Expand full comment

I don't think they like his attitude and/or maturity.

Expand full comment

Really? I truly don't know, but I have heard FANS say that but have not heard a peep from anybody actually on the team or in the dugout.

Expand full comment

I think it’s got more to do with him having a .470 BABIP in AAA this year. His MiL BABIPs have always been off the charts. I don’t know why, but if you reduce it to a realistic level, you roughly get the guy we’ve seen in the majors.

Expand full comment

I think they’re very dialed in to such things, unless it’s one of Cherington’s veteran signings.

Expand full comment
Jul 22·edited Jul 22

I agree with all this and appreciate the info. I'll still stick (with more reservation) that I would have swapped he and Jack about 3 weeks ago as a temporary not REAL upgrade. I am not high on Bae at all, but Jack needs replaced and I am not sure Bae really could've been worse especially now that Jack's defense in center seems to have cratered. This is NOT a hill I will die on.

Expand full comment

I think a look before the trade deadline is the logical step to take.

Expand full comment

The cost of buying a "now" CF in prospects and contract absorption is why I keep suggesting some young guys who are just getting to MLB or are still at AAA. The kid I mentioned below - Jonatan Clase is a 22 year old switchhitter with good numbers through the minors, and has recently been brought up to MLB.

A few things are causing the hold on promoting Bae to MLB. We are 9 days from the Trade Deadline (TD), and BC is wanting to have somebody call about MAT. If not called by the TD, I do not see MAT staying with the Pirates - probably DFA'd and a deal cut to get a return if he is claimed. Bae will be promoted and play some CF and possibly even 2B.

Expand full comment

Taylor is a good bench piece for a playoff team. If that is what they aspire to be they should keep him. They just need to quit starting him. Ever.

Expand full comment

Yep, I'd still give him some starts versus certain lefties but primarily defensive replacement and pinch running.

Expand full comment

I’d throw bae into a trade for bleday or chisolm.

Expand full comment

Bleday gives us 4 years of control, this year and next at minimum, and Chisholm is a 2 year get and he is already making around $2.6 mil in his first year of Arb.

Expand full comment

Bleday is worrying more and more regarding future outlook. He was initially available to the A's because his prospect profile was dimming...then he had a good 2-3 months and now seems to be morphing back to a big question mark. A's are in the position to hold out and see if he can become more and are in NO hurry to just unload an asset that worse case ends up not being worth much or best case can bring a lot more in a trade in the winter or even in 2 years.

Expand full comment

True, he had a good game this past weekend maybe 2 games. I'd much rather try for Rooker if it's going to cost prospect capital, better track record and potential difference maker but the A's may feel the same with his control.

Expand full comment

I think they are more open to Rooker because this could be his peak value while just like us, they can dream on Bleday to actually be on the team in 4 years or for a more significant return if he closes strong this year. They really can hold on to Bleday for a while but it seems now is the time for Rooker.

Expand full comment

Yep, Rooker being a defensive liability/DH doesn't help going into his 30's as well.

Expand full comment

I read somewhere that the Pirates are convinced Bae’s AAA performance won’t translate to major league success. Of course, Jack’s and MAT’s major league performance doesn’t translate to major league success, but Ben is fine with that for some reason.

Expand full comment

File this one in "Many Cases of Doing Something Can Sometimes Better Than Doing Nothing, Ben Cherington"

Expand full comment

Taylor is obviously not much of a hitter but (for those who keep putting so much belief in analytics) he still carries a small positive fWAR overall while Suwinski’s is one of the worst in MLB. People, some people anyway, keep waiting and hoping he’ll “break out” but all that happens is the occasional hit that reinforces the fantasy that he’s on the brink followed by more of the same. The bizarre thing is that he has options and could be in Indy playing every day and working on whatever he needs to work on, which is probably what he needs, but BC prefers him watching and continuing to struggle while providing virtually nothing to the team. Very, very strange and not good for the Pirates nor Suwinski.

Expand full comment

With a guy doing what Jack did before this year — getting hot for a couple weeks then totally tanking for two months — folks seem to assume the “real” player is the one from those two weeks. I tend to think it’s a guy with major flaws that the pitchers haven’t 100% figured out. In his case, now they have.

The only answer is for him to go to AAA, or even AA, for a long time and totally rework his approach. The longer bumbling Ben sits on his hands, the more entrenched the bad approach is likely to get.

Expand full comment
Jul 22·edited Jul 22

I've posted before that I was a Jack detractor every year until this spring (so basically wrong every year). I kept thinking opponents figured him out then he would have a run and by yearend he provided decent to good defense (not this year) and enough power to live with him being a down in the order platoon player. Now he just needs sent down until he figures things out which is kind of behind the original post - basically - until a better upgrade is available could Bae be any worse (yes.. SouthernBuc really aiming for the stars)? I still think I would do it and just send Bae back down if a trade is made. I am not as down on MAT as a 5th outfielder / glove man. Our outfield defense is just not good and he is a legit centerfielder on DEFENSE only. IF Pirates pick up an average bat (clear upgrade) who is not a REAL good cernterfielder (ie. not somebody who wore a glove and ran to the middle position in the outfield) then I think MAT serves more of a purpose than other DFA/waiver wire candidates.

Expand full comment

The pitcher's at the MLB level are much better at exposing hitting flaws - go figure! Tri found that out, and NG is finding that out this year. Bae was a 607 OPS in his 371 PA's for the Pirates in 2023, and the 24 SB could help this offense. Also 30 Walks last year. Nice leadoff option.

Expand full comment

And Jack is finding that out, too.

Expand full comment

BTW, am I over-hyping Severino and YDLS? Both of these kids seem to be the real deal. Not sure Javier Rivas is ready for A+, but he cannot be holding those two back from being promoted to A ball. Rivas fields well enough to be at the MLB level, but his bat lags with a 7/1 K/BB rate, and only 7 HR in 261 AB. He turns 22 in Sep - maybe it all comes to him at A+?

How many more games left in the FCL Regular Season?

Expand full comment

Bound to have a down game, but the Pirates were in it through 6 innings yesterday and only trailing 2-0. After losing almost 3 months to Left Arm soreness, Marco Gonzales threw his second start in July.

He was 0-0 with a 2.65 ERA in 3 Starts/17 IP in April, and in July he is 1-1, 2.79 ERA, in 2 Starts/9.2 IP. Do the Pirates hold onto him to go down the stretch? Remember, he was 61-47, 852 IP in his 7 years with Seattle prior to coming to the Pirates via Atlanta. Seattle is already paying $4.5 mil of his $12 mil 2024 Salary, and picking him up for the stretch run would only cost them another $1.5 mil at most. IMO, he goes to the Mariners (if they show interest), and the return would be CF Jonatan Clase.

Congrats to all of the HOF Entrants, especially Jim Leyland and Todd Helton. Leyland had the Pirates going in the right direction when Ownership/Management of the Pirates decided not to pay to compete. Our family watched Todd Helton from the time we moved from Pittsburgh to Tennessee in 1986. Our oldest son competed against him from the time he played with the Knoxville Stars and then when he played at Central High School. Unfortunately, they were in the same conference as our HS, and their Coach, Bud Bales, was one of the best Coaches I ever saw at any level. Todd was an excellent pitcher growing up and in HS. When they were playing a game they needed to win, Coach Bales had Todd on the mound or in Center Field - not at First Base. Todd was a two sport athlete at Tennessee, before a football injury pushed him more to Baseball.

Expand full comment

Potential idea for an upcoming article, D Santana and has he/Pirates made any adjustments since coming over from the Yankees. Outside of one big blowup just after he was acquired, the dude has been lights out.

Expand full comment

Neither Santana or Nicholas currently reside in the proverbial Circle of Trust, but both are knocking on the door.

A good outing or two vs Cards over the next few days may open the door for them though.

Expand full comment