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RetireNutting's avatar

Man, some players would be super embarrassed to read this story: /team/pirates/feed?page=0&content=ke%27bryan-hayes-battling-back-problems-just-wants-to-play-amid-june-revival-at-plate-and-11-game-hitting-streak-mlb-ejb

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RetireNutting's avatar

Reynolds has some wild day/night splits.

Day: 141 AB's .177/.259

Night: 180 AB's .283/.335

????

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RetireNutting's avatar

Can someone/anyone tell me why it's "X team recalls Y prospect for their MLB debut?" How are they recalling someone who's never gotten the call before. Did MLB create their own English language?

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Melkel's avatar

Maybe because they were on the 40 man roster and optioned to the minors and are being recalled to the active roster.

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RetireNutting's avatar

But re is a prefix that denotes something has happened before! `Back` or `again`.

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Melkel's avatar
3dEdited

They have, the off-season roster is active, you have injured (60 day) players on it, you have to protect rule 5 draft eligible players as well. If you sign someone to the 40 man and are already at 40, you have to dfa or outright release them. Once the active roster is at 26 men at the season opening, players are put on the 60 injured or optioned using one of their three option years. Even though they might not have made their mlb debut, they have been on the active roster. If they aren't on the 40 man they would be selected or promoted depending if they have been on a 40 man roster before. If they have, it's usually called selected, if it's their first time on the 40 it's promoted.

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RetireNutting's avatar

Fair enough, thank you

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Melkel's avatar

No problem, it is a bit of a bad word choice.

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JRC21's avatar

Latest mock from Jim Callis. He has the Pirates going with Arquette over the HS shortstops and Arnold. He has the Mariners taking Hernandez at #3.

I continue to have doubts about Arquette. Oregon State did not play a league schedule this year due to the collapse of the PAC 10, so his stats are against inferior competition. In this mock Willits, Carlson, and Parker are all still on the board. I would not take Arquette in that scenario.

https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/mlb-pipeline-mock-draft-july-3-2025?t=mlb-draft-coverage

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CTBucco's avatar

BTW, I saw Callis' appearance on the NS9 podcast. He said that us getting Arquette in his mocks isn't because he has any intel that our management team is hot on Arquette. It's mainly that he doesn't have a great sense of how a lot of the picks are going to go and that he feels by 6, Arquette should have gone to someone. So, he ends up with us. He consistently reiterated that other than Anderson and Holliday, who he's confident will go top 5 (but not necessarily where), he doesn't have strong intel on who will end up where.

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CTBucco's avatar

I had totally missed that OSU didn’t play a conference schedule. Yeah, Arquette fattening up on non-P5 teams is concerning.

I’ve come around to Parker as my choice. I like the LHB and power. I have no issue sliding him to 3B, and we’re set with him and KG on the left side for a few years. May also save a little on him to use later on a fairly deep class of HS hitters.

I’d be good with Willits or Hernandez. I worry that Carlson won’t have the offensive profile.

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WTM's avatar

Arquette doesn’t seem like a pick for this team. They’ve mainly gone for ceiling, especially last year. Can’t see them shying away from prep SSs.

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Melkel's avatar
3dEdited

I'm hoping for Hernandez or Willits, then Taitn Gray, Josiah Hartshorn, and Josh Owens in the two 2nd round picks and 3rd. Then go heavy on college pitchers.

Gray has had better 60 and 30 yard times than Billy Carlson and he is a year younger and the size of Konnor Griffin.

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RetireNutting's avatar

What about Ethan Conrad?

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Melkel's avatar

I really like him, sucks he got injured, he's in the area where this draft is fairly deep, the tier after the top 15. He might have been a top 10 pick without the injury.

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JRC21's avatar

That’s a good point. I’m not sure the draft analysts have taken into account the different perspective that Horowitz brought to the draft last year, and presumably will again, considering the smashing success of Griffin.

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Melkel's avatar

Willits, Arnold or Parker would be my preference, Willits slightly above the other 2. I think he's very similar to Griffin other than size and power. Gets on base, swipes bags, good fielder pretty much anywhere, and will hustle all the time.

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JRC21's avatar

And he’s a switch-hitter and he’s seen as very likely to stick at short and he’s only 17. I just can’t see taking Arquette over him, assuming that he is there to be taken.

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Melkel's avatar
3dEdited

I've wanted Willits since at least the draft lottery (with the exception of Hernandez, who I didn't and don't think will be available).https://open.substack.com/pub/bucsondeck/p/morning-rundown-draft-lottery-today?utm_source=direct&r=2mgs65&utm_campaign=comment-list-share-cta&utm_medium=web&comments=true&commentId=80933973

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JRC21's avatar

Arquette is already 21 and turns 22 in October. I highly doubt he would debut at Altoona, so you’re looking at a 22-year-old shortstop at A+. Griffin is starring there right now at age 19. That makes no sense to me.

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StatsCbl's avatar

Altoona attendance 9165 tonight. I've never been there, but it looks like it could be fun.

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Melkel's avatar

Another warning track fly out the other way for Termarr.

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PirateRican21's avatar

Is the other way a good approach for him? Other than the HR power that is.

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Melkel's avatar

I think so, he had 3 decent at bats and 1 bad one tonight. Looked like he was trying to pulverize the ball in his last at bat and missed bad on strike 3. He also fouled off a pitch when Jebb had an easy stolen base, I only mention this because he clearly got onto Siani for doing the same thing when he had an easy stolen base earlier.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

Can't see a scenario where this Bradenton game doesn't see another delay of some sort unless it just stops out of no where

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Jim's avatar

Problem is that the field is not in good shape. Any more rain and it is probably not playable. Not raining currently.

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WTM's avatar

Looks like they have until 9:00-9:30.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

Going to open up then? That's not much time to get a full game in

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WTM's avatar

Looks like a brief thunderstorm, at least on radar.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

Alika Williams going to be the shortstop for the Pirates after IKF is traded, isn't he?

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theobserver's avatar

You haven't even considered the scenario where they move Alika over to 3B following a Hayes trade. That level of unwatchable hitting might trigger flashbacks.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

That would be hilarious, but in a more tragic way

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theobserver's avatar

It would be worse than hilarious. It would be a very Pirates thing to do.

Let's just pray the current winning streak goes at least 20 games so the FO can't get away with it.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

In all honesty, I feel like there is zero chance they get an offer for Hayes that would make it worth trading him.

I think he sticks around.

Then again, I have a horrible betting track record.

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theobserver's avatar

The only thing that makes me think Hayes moves is that the current market for 3B is atrocious, and it won't get better in FA.

If I was a contender with an organizational hole to fill at 3B, Hayes might fit the bill. He's not so expensive that eventually cutting him would be disastrous if he plays awful or eventually gets supplanted by younger talent. Also, you have to at least think there's room for a swing adjustment just because the pirates are utter trash at hitter development.

I'd put a Hayes trade at 30%.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

I mean that's fair. I almost wanna say that if the right deal comes around, there is almost no one I wouldn't be opposed to moving.

Certain players have a very specific scenario that has to play out, but I would definitely listen.

Just not sure if the Pirates move him. Creates a huge hole at third for your own team that you really don't have a way of filling (Triolo is worst offensively).

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PirateRican21's avatar

Nick Gonzales and Triolo before we see Alika, even Peguero otherwise why is he still on the 40.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

You could say that about a few players on the 40 at this point. Plus, I feel like every time I watch an Indy game it's Alika coming up with the big hit over anyone else. That's why I brought that up there.

Still would like to see Peggy get another shot, but then again, that looks like that ship has sailed.

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StatsCbl's avatar

The week I was in Indy Alika looked pretty good. If Triolo got hurt, he could be a solid replacement.

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Aurorus Borealus's avatar

The 40-man is filled with Cherington's accumulated junk. Who else merits a 40-man spot in place of Peguero? There isn't any major-league ready talent in AAA or AA.

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Aurorus Borealus's avatar

Unless someone is desparate for a solid utility IFer and overpays for IKF, I don't see the point in trading him actually. He doesn't have that much value. He is not going to fetch more than a longshot A-ball lottery ticket, and the Pirates have no one to replace him.

They need revenue more than they need more longshot A-ball lottery tickets. Trading half the roster and then stinking up the joint for the last 2 months of the season so that the 8,000 fans who do show up now stop showing up and no one buys any season ticket packages for next year is not worth a few lottery tickets.

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theobserver's avatar

The main argument for trading IKF is he's the kind of guy teams like to trade for.

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Dave's avatar

I think we could get an AAA reliever for him. Don’t need any more middle infielders. That sounds about right. Trades this year. Should be made to help us next year. Not 2 to 3 years down the road. Just my thoughts.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

He's got some value as an UT IF. He's not going to bring in a top 100 prospect, obviously, but they'll get some they can work with. More than a ticket.

Think you have to get something for him. Can't just let him walk. Go with a mix of Gonzales, Triolo, and even Cheng, to see if he's capable of even keeping on a roster.

Can see Cheng as a DFA option this offseason if not.

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Aurorus Borealus's avatar

If I were GM (with my job on the line or no), I would try to field as decent a team as possible for the rest of the year. Try to build a sense of momentum (for the returning players, but more so for the fans). Hope they play above .500 ball and sell the idea that next year is The Year.

Not many people will buy it, but some will. Some people buying season ticket packages is better than no one. They need revenue more than a few lottery tickets. Now, if someone overpays, that is another case. It is hard to win with a low budget. It is impossible to win with no budget.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

I definitely get that, and to extent you probably are right. But it's also bad asset management to let someone like that walk for nothing in return.

Gonzales isn't the answer at short, but I think he can survive two months there until they figure something else out.

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StatsCbl's avatar

If the Pirates finish the season well with Kiner-Falefa, what would it cost to Kiner-Falefa?

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Aurorus Borealus's avatar

Yeah... I mean... in an ideal world, they move every rental, but they are not in an ideal situation: far from it. The value that IKF adds in revenue for the 2nd half of the season is worth more to the Pirates right now than his trade value, because they have to start improving their attendance numbers. At the very least, they have to stop the bleeding. You can't run a business with no customers: even a major-league baseball team.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

The same fans that are coming to see IKF are the kind of fans that are coming to see the team regardless.

I don't think anyone is saying 'oh wow, let's go see IKF play baseball today'

If the team competes until the deadline, then you probably have a better case. If the team crashes back down to earth, then you just have to seel whatever you can.

Realistically though, Heaney and IKF are probably the only two you 'have' to come off.

Pham is probably not getting enough, then again, you probably just take what you get from him as well.

You don't HAVE to trade Santana, Bednar, or Keller during the deadline, they have control you can wait, if you trade Keller at all.

But IKF isn't moving the needle enough attendance-wise, even if you spin it as 'but hey, we are trying to win at least'

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

Which we more than likely know the answer but still

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Melkel's avatar

Termarr just missed an opposit field homer.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

I'm watching on MLB TV and it cut away in the middle of his at-bat so I missed that

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Melkel's avatar
3dEdited

It was about 3 feet short of the wall in straight away left, caught at the fence. Pretty high fly, well hit.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

Shame I missed that

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

It just cut to commercial again in the middle of the inning. Have the Indianapolis game on another TV but it's only doing that for the Altoona game

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Melkel's avatar
3dEdited

That sucks, it's on sportsnet pittsburgh as well, probably out of your area.

The Bradenton game should be starting soon.

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StatsCbl's avatar

thanks for the info. Just turned it on.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

Yep, in VA. Honestly, as long as they don't do that while Erco is pitching (they've already done that), Termarr, and E Valdez hitting, I can be ok with it haha

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

Ronny Simon just hit another lead-off home run. He's becoming more and more interesting

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AdministrativeSky236's avatar

Perfect post deadline candidate to just get some runway and see what happens

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

Yeah, I never really thought much of him when he came over, but now he's I guy I definitely want to see more of

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Mike G.'s avatar

Kudos to the infielder who gets in the way of an 108 mph ground ball. I'd be the matador!

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Robert Kasperski's avatar

Konner Griffin is supposed to be live on 93.7 The Fan approximately at 6:30 pm eastern in about 15 mins for those that you who want to hear him. Jason Mackey is hosting

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Scott Kliesen's avatar

Everyone is talking about the trade deadline from a purely baseball perspective. With the Pirates, money is the key driver.

Does it make more sense to deal Keller, Bednar, Hayes, etc.and their salaries this summer? Or maybe it makes more sense to keep them all in the hopes the team continues winning, which will help attendance.

I don’t know how Nutting views it, but I do know it will be a huge factor in how BC approaches the trade deadline.

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theobserver's avatar

Trading specifically over money? No. With the exception of Bednar, those are cost-effectice contracts going forward.

The argument for trading Keller would be if the offer was an overpay. Might there be a scenario where a team short on rotation arms would say, "We'll go big if you give us Keller and Bednar?" Sure. But there's no reason to be a seller on Keller as a pure salary dump given the price-to-performance on his deal is a win for the Pirates. He's a somewhat above-average SP on a very average contract.

As for Hayes, the main argument against trading him is that they have no one to fill that hole right now. Triolo is pushing closer to the 1,200 career PAs that would all but seal the analytic case against him as a major leaguer -- least of all going into his age 28 next year. The next most logical replacement would be Jack Brannigan, who's nowhere near MLB ready. I've never seen anyone pound the table for Malcolm Nunez as a 3B. After that, you're talking about playing someone like Alika Williams at 3B, which would make people dream of the days they had Hayes' bat in the lineup.

The main argument for selling Hayes would be the other side being desperate. the 3B market going into next year isn't going to be great. At a certain price, everyone is tradable. I just don't see Hayes bringing that price relative to what is a very team-friendly contract.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

I think if they shed salary and then don't take any back on in return you could stick a fork in them ever competing.

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Bucsfan2023's avatar

I’d imagine he gets ordered to clear X amount of dollars off the payroll due to the attendance issues.

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Scott Kliesen's avatar

I’m not nearly as certain of this as you are. I think he may have BC keep all but those who are on expiring deals in hopes of boosting attendance in Aug/Sept.

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Bucsfan2023's avatar

That would cut a solid amount of payroll though. Heaney + Ferguson + Pham (if they find a taker) isn’t small change for Nutting. Hayes could enter into that equation as well.

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StatsCbl's avatar

I'd imagine you are right. We need a gm that can show Nutting how investing in the right players will boost attendance, possibly get in the play-offs, and generate a lot more revenue.

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Scott Kliesen's avatar

Amen brother!

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

To those who have the Stubstack app

When I post notes (like what I did this morning with Suero or the probable pitchers), do you get notification pop ups?

Trying to find the best way to share stuff. Honestly, kinda sick of twitter. Would post notes on stuff, but don’t want to spam peoples phones if they constantly show up immediately.

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pskell02's avatar

Yep, get a notification each time you post

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

Perfect thank you. I kinda figured but was curious. I'll try not to spam the notes then.

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pskell02's avatar

I was thinking I’d like more of them. Minor league news. KG hits a bomb. Etc.

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Amos Moses's avatar

It’s probably impacted too much by the recent win streak, but man do I feel like they should deal the impending FA’s and leave the rest (Bednar, Santana, Keller, Reynolds, and even Hayes) alone. Cruz, Horwitz and Gonzales are looking like solid (if not better) pieces. Reynolds back of the card numbers aren’t great, but everything else looks fine with him hitting-wise. I don’t see how you unload Reynolds and then have to find 2 corner OF’s next year. If Cutch retires, they probably still will need to new OF’s anyway.

If someone like Keller is dealt, it has to be for a SS or corner OF like W. Abreu. The FA class for SS is barren.

Relievers are volatile, but Bednar’s arb won’t be unreasonable and Santana is still cheap. Even with some shrewd trades/signings, the offense isn’t likely to be much more than average. Keep the bullpen a strength, if they perform well and the team is not in contention, deal them then. The return now is not going to net them what they need to complete the 2026 lineup.

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JRC21's avatar

These trade deadlines tend to feel like Groundhog Day. So in that spirit I’ll repeat the gist of a post I made here a year ago:

In the early 2000s Peter Gammons, when he was still writing for ESPN, did an article examining 10-15 years of deadline deals. His conclusion: the teams getting major league players for prospects almost always won the trades. We tend to remember the smashing successes —- like the Red Sox trading Jeff Bagwell to the Astros for a middle reliever or the ill-fated Chris Archer trade —- but on balance many prospects don’t pan out, while the established major leaguers go on to make significant contributions to their new teams.

The point is that established major leaguers are incredibly valuable and teams should not hesitate to drive hard bargains for them. I thought most of the trade ideas in the P-G this morning seriously undervalued the Pirates’ established assets, Keller especially.

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Melkel's avatar

I'm there with you especially with Cherington doing the trading. I'd definitely be listening on offers but other than the expiring contracts I'd want an overpay to consider players with control. It wouldn't have to be a huge overpay on the relievers if it would get a needed return.

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NMR's avatar

I love the optimism AND it then begs the question of why they aren't pushing all-in with their prospects.

If this is a club worth keeping their vets through the expensive years, then it's worth selling everyone but Griffin for a bat or two.

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Melkel's avatar
3dEdited

I would consider moving one of the larger contracts. Keller is the only one that could bring back the proper value. Hayes or Reynolds would need immediate replacements and I don't think they'd bring them back (Free Agency would be a requirement with the freed up cash).

An example on a Keller trade with the Mets.

Keller and Ferguson for

Benge, Santucci, Mauricio, Reimer, and Serrano.

Benge a double A corner outfielder

Santucci a highA lefty starter

Mauricio mlb infielder

Reimer a double A 3rd basemen

Serrano a highA outfielder

I don't know if the Mets would do it, but that would be the kind of return I'd want for Keller.

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Amos Moses's avatar

I got on the field while the Mets were taking BP last week and was blown away by Mauricio’s size! He looks like a stretched out Marte (who is still jacked). I think the scoreboard said he was 6’3”, 180 lbs. No chance!

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JRC21's avatar

His mlb.com page lists him as 6’4” and — get this —- 166 lbs.

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Melkel's avatar
3dEdited

Closer to 225 lbs. Probably an inch or 2 taller. A shorter O'Neil Cruz.

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Amos Moses's avatar

Yep!

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Aurorus Borealus's avatar

This. The offseason opens up many more opportunities to make multiple moves that are not necessarily straight buyer-seller trades of veterans for prospects. Maybe the Pirates could buy with prospects? But not now. That is one reason that you wait to move guys with value and control to see what the offseason presents, rather than trying to shoehorn everything into the veterans-for-prospects buyer/seller trade deadline model.

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1979andCounting's avatar

Yes, in theory. But Ben loses when there is competition and negotiating and no deadline. He gets used.

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Amos Moses's avatar

I kinda like what I’m seeing from Horwitz the last two weeks. From both sides of the ball.

(Wrist please stay strong!)

((Also, not an endorsement of Ben; just seems like he might be sticking around some.))

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Amos Moses's avatar

Agree, mostly. If Heaney presents as one of the top LH starters available and a team is desperate enough AND likes one of the young starters (or even Termarr) and it would net you a bona fide SS prospect, I’d consider it. I’d even do it in the right deal with Bednar or Santana, acknowledging it will thin out the current depth some.

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Amos Moses's avatar

If Cherington believes in Horwitz and Gonzales (and Hayes, Davis, Endy, Cruz, etc.), then he should consider packaging someone like Heaney with a prospect to get that SS.

Kinda make him dance with the girl you brought - if he is sticking around another year. (If he isn’t, he shouldn’t be trading anyone under control).

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Amos Moses's avatar

To be clear, I don’t want Cherington dancing with my girl or any of your girls. He’d have to win a chip for me to allow him to do that…

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Hoptown's avatar

I’m not convinced the Pirates will trade D Santana. He has 1 more year of control, and his salary wil be about $3M. If they believe he’s for real, that’s real value. And I don’t trade it unless I get a top 7-8 prospect from some team’s list.

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theobserver's avatar

It benefits them to not come of as desperate to trade Santana. That said, if the market for relievers is poppin', then they have to take those calls. Santana isn't going to make or break Year the 7th of The Rebuild. If the market is there, you're always a seller on any reliever not named Mariano.

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