122 Comments

Biggest loser of the deadline so far is MLB Pipeline.

Fodder for every jackwagon complaining about their favorite team not acquiring Good Player X for Shitty Prospect Y and Z.

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I’m really offended that you’d make fun of my proposal for the Marlins to trade us Jazz for Solometo and Jebb.

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Chapman to the orioles feels inevitable.

They have such a good team with young top prospect coming soon that they will have a 40 man problem this offseason.

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Reporting that the O’s want another lefty in their bullpen. I’m sure we will take their number 22, 29, 52 and 76th ranked prospects, rather than just taking number 10. It’s all about creating illusory depth.

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The Pirates can package Chapem with Keller for one of Mayo or Kjerstad. If it's Mayo, the Pirates may need to include a prospect. If the Nuttington Pirates refuse to spend money on a free agent or two, then tis is the path the ream must take if it intends to win in the short term (that is, during Skenes' time with the organizationni).

I'm not holding my breath waiting for this trade.

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Keller isn’t going anywhere

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Right, because Nuttington is too stupid to trade him.

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It would appear to be a helluva sellers market. If we have any strength it is starting pitching. Of the pitchers with value i would trade Keller before Skenes and he has more value than Jones as he is hurt. This will be the best way to get potentially above average offensive players.

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It would appear to be a sellers market because so many teams are in the race and so few are out. On the flipside, I think there are teams around .500 that are reluctant to go all in with the expanded play-off system. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

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The best way to obtain good offensive players is to have a savvy, brave GM.

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Actually it’s to develop them yourself!

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That's what a savvy GM would do,

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Actually we should just trade skenes

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I believe you are being sarcastic. Whatever the Pirates were to receive in a Skenes trade, the return would be inadequate. It would not be hard to crunch the numbers and determine a trade equivalent for Skenes. But, if it's game seven of the world Series, who would you want on the mound. Skenese is a unicorn. He's your game seven pitcher. More unicorns: Trout, Bonds, Cabrera, Pujols, etc. A unicorn player is one who can prevail over the best opponents. There are a few of those every generation and the Pirates have one of them. The last such Pirates player? Bonds. Loosing Bonds placed a death shroud over this organization. What would losing Skenes do?

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As long as we go quantity over quality lol

Probably need to take a couple 40 man guys in that group.

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I wonder how many quantity guys we acquired that we had to eventually DFA because there wasn't enough room on the 40 man.

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3 of 4 from the Tallion trade 2 of 2 from the Holmes trade, stopping there because it's depressing.

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That was my joke lol

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I know. I was just putting fuel in the fire.

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Herschel Skenes? 😉

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I would try for Emmanuel Rodriguez and Connie Prielipp. He has had multiple TJ’s but is a wild card.

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Rumors all over saying Miami wanted Termarr & Nick Gonzales for Jazz.

Glad Ben said no

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I'll jump on the questioning - rumors 'all over'? I haven't seen a one outside of chats like this.

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It’s all over X

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Ummm . . . . .

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Source ?

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X

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These rumors, if there’s anything to them to begin with, often reflect one side’s opening bid rather than anything that ever had a chance. They didn’t get anywhere near that. And they can’t possibly have thought that the Pirates would have seen swapping Nick for Jazz as helping them contend, which would have been the point of a trade.

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They sure as hell didn’t get anything close to that from the Yankees.

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Make a trade you cowards.

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I started to say the fundamental problem is that they just don’t care, but on top of that, Cherington no doubt realizes the Archer trade was a big factor in Huntington getting fired. He seems determined to make only moves that’ll stay off the radar screen. Above all else, Ben is about protecting his lifetime tenure.

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Which is why he should have traded Keller to the O's. The Archer trade may have gotten Connington fired, but Nuttington's risk aversion may get him fired. After all, Nutting's claim that there is money available for a mid-season trade and the leaked FO denials that such money was there -- this suggests that the Nuttings might be offended by the Scrooge McDuck comparisons.

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Jul 28
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It's a think-tank, no practical actions.

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How can I get hired to do a field study for the think tank?

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Just do the field study, send it to Federal Street c/o GMBC. If one of the interns gets to it, Ben will send a voucher for a free t-shirt as long as you have a paid ticket for any free t-shirt Friday.

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To be a buyer or to be a seller?

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The million dollar 53 hour question. In the rental market, I hope they don't buy, and have only marked-down items to sell. In the controllable market, I hope they don't sell major league assets (Jones, Keller) and instead sell from depth to buy a controllable bat or two.

I don't think a ''win now" move is going to happen.

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Cherrington's FO has made a point to notify the fans that it will not make a win now move. That does not bother me at all. What he hasn't done is make a win later move. That bothers me a lot.

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In other words, you agree with management that they shouldn't try to win this year despite the fact that they may not win any year. I've always thought that the whole point of a major league team was to win so if there is a team on the fringe, at least try to get over the fringe! Hope-o-meter never really moves in Pittsburgh!

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Me too, but just wait how I change my mind if Keller and Skenes dominate the next 2 games and we move within 2 games of the wildcard.

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Would anyone consider trading Keller to the twins for a combination of players headlined by Brooks Lee.

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Accordingbto BTV, this is what a fair trade return for Brooks Lee would look like.

BTV values do not always make sense to me. Skene has a 57! That's egregiously low. Keller's value seems too low.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/172723

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The values for a lot of players don’t line up and I think it’s inconsistent with some players and organizations. Sometimes I think they overcorrect too much with their evaluations. Overall, the site is fun, but I think they do a better job with some teams and values than others.

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They undervalue starting pitching severely and tend to overvalue certain teams prospects.

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They sure as hell overvalued Jazz.

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Trade deadline, it seems pitchers values have always gone up. In the offseason, teams seemed to avoid giving pitchers contracts with ridiculous amounts of years on their contracts. I wonder if that has anything to do with anything at all.

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I was going by BTV, deadline trades for pitching is always higher it seems. Off-season it's usually quantity over quality (at least for the pirates).

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Yep. A 57 value for Skenes is nuts. He's the third most valuable trade asset on FG's current ranking. He's third because the ranking system docks pitchers for being pitchers. Longenhagen and coworkers gave Skenes a 65 FV in its recent Top 100 list. That likely suppressed Skenes' trade value. Knowing what we know now, a 65 FV is quite low. BTV uses prospect rankings to assign a value to prospects. Harrington, Barco and others seem to be undervalued. Yet Harrington recently outmatched Jobe in a head to head match, and no one found that astonishing.

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I'd rather make a play for Crochet and a rental bat or 2.

Go to a 6 man rotation, hope for the WC but setup next year with a top 3 rotation.

Off-season actually try to aquire a bat or 3.

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I think because of Keller's durability and what he can offer younger Pirate pitchers, he is more valuable than what his numbers show. I would not do it straight up for Brooks Lee, but would be listening to what else you want to throw in.

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I would

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The Rays are 4 GB wildcard with only two teams ahead of them plus the dubious Royals. Yet they're sellers. Pirates fans would have a mutiny if BC sells without adding a hitter. But selling Chappy, Marco and Martin would be appropriate.

Giving away Martin would be fine too.

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The time for the pirates to trade for a bat or 2 was a month ago or more. The NL Central is not the AL East, the pirates front office is not the rays front office. The rays front office has a better track record that says they know what they are doing.

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Nuttington is gutless. The Rays FO iscsavy and willful.

At this point of the build, I'm trying to determine WTF Cherrington is doing. I can accept that he does not want to go all in on the 2024 season. And I'm aware that I and every other fan knows nothing about trade talks between teams. But Cherrington has made it clear that the fans should keep their expectations low for the trade deadline.

It's ironic that Nuttington might face another fan explosion if they sell Chapman at the trade deadline.

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Lowered Expectations!!! Someone needs to do a parody from the Mad TV sketch of Bob and Ben making their pitch to angry pirates fans.

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That person should review footage of McClatchyfield selling their teams to the fans! Fireworks! Who wants to pay >$20 per ticket to take the family to PNC to watch the Pirates team get its ass handed to it just to watch a lame Fireworks display afterwards?

It's a good thing that Yinzers like Fireworks because the alternatives are bear baiting, dog fighting and demolition derby races.

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A demolition derby would be a great draw after a Sunday lineup.

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It’s just that it’s been such a long time since we’ve been close to it

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Give away Grandal too.

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Jason Adam to Padres for Lesko

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Jason Adam's whip over the last 3 years is .89. Even though I am a little surprised they got a top 100 prospect for him, I think Adam might be a little underrated.

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pirates should sell bednar if those are the prices, god damn

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I wanted to trade Bednar last year

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me too. can't trade the hometown boy tho

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That’s probably the first overpayment I ever seen, then again Lesko is struggling….

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i'd still bet on the talent. coming back from tj surgery isn't always smooth sailing

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Agree, command is the last thing and he is a command, great change up guy. Hope Burrows find his command soon he too is struggling with command.

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Also Homer Bush and another prospect not mentioned yet

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Jul 28
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Seems to be a pretty steep price

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Jul 28
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Damn. I'm not sure how much control Adam has after this year but that's a bit much to me

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Padres window is now, the players they traded are 2 to 3 years away from the majors at least.

The Ray's have an ability to find hidden gems for the bullpen (think last year pirates). The Ray's cleaned up, but the Padres got what they need now, a win win.

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Justin Martinez is a new name for me. Has closer velocity after having TJ in 2021. Much rather see Sewald than him today. What an arm.

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As the sun rises in the East, the certainty of Quinn throwing BP for at least one crooked number inning is a foregone conclusion. And usually that means game over.

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Tweeted Mayo yesterday asking about Griffin signing. Surprisingly he tweeted back but said probably closer to deadline

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I believe he's acyinzer.

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Time for Bae to show he can do something at the MLB level.

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This might be and likely is his last chance with the Pirates.

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Winker for Tyler Stuart. We obviously could have exceeded that offer, there is no credible conclusion to the contrary, and although not the most exciting pickup he is a legitimate bat that would improve our offense. Only hope is that Cherington is not hoarding & overvaluing prospects in our system ala early Huntington. It seems like he is getting outmaneuvered at this deadline so far. Bring home Luis Robert and all is forgiven. I’ll take Ward & Lane Thomas two-fer as well

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But then same would have had to give at bats to winker

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Stuart was the NYM #17 prospect. From MLB.com our #17 is Garrett Forrester.

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The return Miami got for Jazz wasn't great either. No reason the Pirates couldn't have put up a better offer without giving up their top 3-5 guys. This is looking like a typical Pirates trade deadline. Low cost, no upside pick ups. It would be nice to get an outfielder that has a few years of control so that we don't go into next year with 1 legit outfielder again.

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Why yinz want crappy players?

Aim higher why don’t ya?

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Better players would be great but this is Pittsburgh Pirates. I don't see a big move coming. Winker has a .800 ops plus 15 sbs which would make him a top 2 or 3 hitter on this team. Jazz has upside still and is under control for a couple years. Not great defensively at CF but still an upgrade. Pirates could use 2 outfielders since they won't dare replace Hayes at 3b and probably can't upgrade at catcher. A better backup infielder would be nice also. Triolo needs to get sent down.

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I’d vote no Luis Robert for a variety of reasons, but I share your concerns. And I’ll ask: is he overvaluing his prospects or do they just not have a whole lot that’s of any value beyond a few pitchers and Termarr Johnson? It’s a pretty underwhelming system at this point. I liked the last draft, but we can’t trade those guys obviously.

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A Keller trade to the right team would have netted the right player.

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That’s the folly of these pointless extensions. If you won’t trade your players at peak value, you won’t spend money, and then the extensions crimp what little budget you do have, how the hell are you supposed to be competitive? I really struggle to comprehend what they’ve done the past 18 months.

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I don’t see the extensions as folly on their own, although the Hayes one is clearly headed to Tabata territory. It’s how they conduct the rest of their business (dumping 30 mil this offseason into a drips and drabs approach) and struggling to develop hitting. It almost looks like they’re trying the Braves approach with extensions on a smaller scale, but they can’t do anything else right to match that (namely, develop hitting).

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Yes. The extensions are good business, if the team is employing normal baseball business practices, particularly as team friendly as the deals are. Problem is, they aren’t. These deals squeeze the minimal budget they have, thus ensuring that they are going to struggle to field a roster with depth, as they can’t buy what they need, nor can they develop what they need. Reynolds and Keller would be worth more to them as pieces of a great trade return. As for Hayes, investing in defense is just a poor decision for a small market team. Teams pay for hitting, particularly power hitting. Home runs are always going to be the most expensive thing to acquire, which is where you should try and put your limited capital. My ideal extension for a small market? Starling Marte. Power hitting outfielder, where I believe they paid a million and change per WAR.

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I’d have been more comfortable with Hayes as an extension candidate if they had a track record of getting more out of their young hitters. They don’t or at least, the guys who have come up have struggled initially for awhile. But Hayes really didn’t have to hit all that well to justify it. If he put up last years numbers or something similar, it’d be fine. Great? No. But decent.

As they’ve crawled to within view of contending, this FO appears to be in a state of paralysis by analysis and lost at sea. WTM pointed out they seem almost determined not to make an Archer type deal as that trade ended up as one of NH’s downfall. That seemed possible the more time goes by and nothing happens. But doing nothing and going straight ahead? That won’t get them ahead either.

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I would agree with your position but I also believe Nutting is taking money from the organization. I doubt that the Pirates have debt on their books. They did have debt but the team paid it off. After all, it' been decades. So, where is the money that once was used to retire debt? Nuttings pocket, most likely.

You know it's bad when local politicians feel free to threaten Nutting. He'll use the PNC lease against him.

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I don’t totally buy that. These teams have internal valuations that aren’t affected by that sort of noise. That said, we all do have unconscious bias that’s possibly altered by whatever information we consume, but in the modern game that’s becoming less and less. These guys are trying, perhaps not always successfully, to make decisions by isolating that kinda crap out. Interestingly though, the Yankees do have a solid track record of pretty much not ever giving up prospects of value in recent deadline deals. You’re looking at JP Sears, Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon. Whether that’s dumb luck, impressive competence on their part, or teams overvaluing their prospects is anyone’s guess.

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Nope, but close. They’re 19th.

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19th. After years of rebuilding and high picks.

I’d point that after 2015, and 3 years of winning under Huntington we had the top farm system in baseball.

Didn’t necessarily work out. But I’d rather be there than 19.

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So would I. But they’ve also graduated a slew of talent in the past three seasons: one 65, one 60, three 55’s, and three 50’s. And most of those are in the last two seasons?

Did NH graduate that much talent in a short window or not? I seem to remember it being more staggered, and FG’s ratings don’t go back that far.

The larger issue, as we all know, is getting the predicted rate of return out of those prospects who graduated. But of those graduates, only Skenes/Cruz/Jones are approaching those predicted levels (although Cruz may be getting there). I dunno, maybe it all comes together next year or soon. But they’re in a frustrating spot.

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The guys they’ve graduated are high picks that are harder to screw up though. Where are the middle round guys? Particularly considering the bonus pools they’ve had? Maybe McAdoo makes some noise. But that’s about it. And two of their better prospects in the top 10 are Huntington holdovers… as hard as that is to believe.

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If we aren’t it’ll be because of the recent draft.

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With a guy built like Tellez, a back issue could be long term rather than a day or two - any official word from the Pirates? For NG, this could be a good time to rest the leg and reset. He came out with a .913 OPS his first month in MLB in 2024, and the OPS has been dropping steadily in the next 2 months - .380 OPS points difference between May and July. I think it would be safe to say that he is being pitched differently.

Boy do we need Bryan Reynolds back in that 2, 3, or 4 slot. Nice to see Ke'Bryan Hayes with 2 hits last night. Cancel the Headstone! Bae at leadoff today?

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Back issue? I thought he was out due to being hit on hand Friday night?

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I'm wondering if I am the only one that thinks it would be nice if someone could make a positive comment about a game Hayes has had without hearing the tiny dancer comment for the 100th time. Just wondering.

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The one thing I miss from Pirates Prospects is the ability to mute comments.

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We all watch the games. We aren't stupid. So why act like you have to point it out 20 times a game about Hayes. He had 2 hits last night. I know it bothers you that someone pointed it out. Let it go.

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The Hayes stuff does get obnoxious, but I’ll also say, Hayes supporters are obnoxious too. The whole “but his defense” and trying to use every small sample size where he hits for 6 weeks to turn him into a future HOFer gets old too.

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The west coast trips have been rough……interested to see if Peguero comes up and get regular at bats or they go with Triolo.

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At this point, Peguero has shown himself to be a AAAA player. Bae has more baseball credibility than Peguero, and the Pirates treated Bae as a depth player even though his BA was .350.

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I think it is safe to assume that the Peguero experiment to spend more time at AAA has satisfied all of the expectations of the Pirates. He had 80 days of MLB Service coming into 2024, and the Pirates will start to think of him now since there are less than 92 days remaining in the season.

He was rushed to MLB when Cruz went down in 2023 and did well by my standards - a .654 OPS and a .960 Fielding % as a 22 year old. The 6/1 K/BB Rate was too high, but expected from such a young kid at the MLB level. Spending all of 2024 at AAA has been useless. This could be the year they try to get an extra year or two extension out of Cruz - Peguero is their insurance policy if they cannot get such an extension, and YDLS looks like a SS who could move fast through the minors.

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I like what he has done at AAA - mostly with his defense - 453 innings at SS with a .963 fielding %age and 274 innings at 2B with a .991 Fielding %age. Different levels, but both of those numbers would be better than what we have at SS and 2B for the Pirates.

What I also like is the improvement he has made in reducing his K/BB rate. At present in AAA he has 88 K and 31 BB for a rate of 2.8 K/BB. In AA 2 years ago he was 111 K and 29 BB for a rate of 3.8 K/BB. At MLB last year he was 6 K/BB. When you put the ball in play a lot of positive things can happen; when you strike out, very few positive things can happen!

I also like that he is still only 23 and we have him for at least 6 years of control!

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