The Athletic has a list of top 30 trade targets for this year’s trade deadline. (I know, I know, another damn list —- these sites love lists). Heaney is 22 and Bednar is 25.
Only thing I’d change is the order they’re in. Bullpen arms are more valuable come postseason time than back end arms, Bednar seems to have recaptured some juice, and has a year of control beyond this one.
Would've really like to see Bubba get through Rocchio-DeLauter-Noel-Kayfus three times.
I count just one whiff in 8 PA against those four against 2 hits and 2 runs.
Shouldn't be taken to sour on him overall, but that's close to big league-quality lineup and middling results. Starting to buy into the line of thought that he actually could use more dev time.
Hayes's offensive ineptitude is just staggering. In over 250 ABs he has amassed a .226 Avg, 2 HRs and a putrid 19 RBIs. I don't care if he's the second coming of Brooks Robinson he's got to go.
Option him and have him work out his swing. The approach he's been using for the last 2 years simply isn't working.
Let Triolo play 3rd full-time while Hayes is optioned to find out if he can get close to being a league-average bat and if not, maybe it's time for Triolo to go.
They owe him $30 million over 4 years on a guaranteed contract after this season. There is no just making him go away.
Next year he will have enough service time to reject a minor-league assignment. To release him would require eating his entire contract in one season, which Nutting will never do. They are stuck with Hayes unless they can find someone upon whom to unload his contract, which will require prospect capital. It is not a happy situation and another of the unfortunate legacies that Cherington will leave for the next GM.
Don't think they have to eat the entire contract in one season -- they just keep paying him through 2029. And your point is valid -- if Nutting won't eat $2M for a half-season of Pham, no way he'll cut a contract like Hayes'.
Yeah.. you're right, they can pay out the contract over its life, but there is little point in that: paying someone to do nothing. They need to move him to utility/defensive sub and somehow find a way to live with 8% of the annual major-league payroll tied up in a defensive sub, which makes a difficult situation even more difficult.
Moving him to SS is the only play that makes any sense, but these are the Pirates, so don't expect them to do anything that makes sense.
He had extreme groundball batting characteristics when they signed him to that extension, and all they really received in return for all that guaranteed money was 2 free-agent years and an option for $12 million for a third. They gave up 2 pre-arb. years an 3 arb. years: a total maybe, if everything had gone better, of $37 million, meaning they paid him effectively $55 million for 3 free agent seasons or $43 million for 2 seasons. The only way that contract works for the Pirates is if Hayes had become a $35 million-dollar-per-year player in his 30s: a terrible contract by any measure.
I didn't like the contract at the time. (For the record, I thought that they should have traded Reynolds too). Guys like Hayes and Reynolds are semi-replaceable, even the groundball-hitting .250 BA Hayes who sometimes knocks out a linedrive or groundball to the corners for extra bases they thought that they signed, instead of the weak groundball junk hitter they got.
The only guys that the Pirates should be looking to extend are a couple of irreplaceable players: i.e. Cruz and Skenes. The middling or above average guys should not be extended, especially very early in their careers.
i hear you. *only* thing i liked about Hayes was that it was moderately front loaded at a time they were clearly tanking and wouldn't have been spending that money anyways. Not exactly putting it to use at this point, though.
he's bizarre in that the sum of roughly average to above average parts - contact, chase, exit velo - somehow equates to far less. He isn't even putting it on the ground any more than he was when he was at least a rosterable bat.
The biggest thing that stands out is his near complete inability to pull the ball. the swing just doesn't allow him to do any damage at all.
He's not a shortstop and never will be. He's not a 1B. Maybe, in a stretch, he could be a 2B. As a professional, he's played 8409 innings at 3B and exactly 5 as a shortstop. No 2B, no 1B.
I think had he not been the son of an MLB 3rd baseman and his defense not (legitimately) other-worldly, he would have been converted long ago. I think he has the hands, arm, and possibly the range to handle SS, regardless of how many innings he's played there in his career.
At this point, he looks like a clone of Triolo, who handles SS at least adequately.
If they are indeed stuck with his contract (which it looks like they are), and they don't have a SS ready in the wings after IKF (which it looks like they don't), they should strongly consider having him play SS (and other positions). Then, when Griffin is ready, if he still isn't hitting at all, make him a full-time utility player. I can stomach having him take a roster spot if I know he's going to provide solid defense wherever they put him, even if he can't hit. He's just an offensive black-hole as a regular 3B, defense be-damned.
Also may hopefully convince our front-office/coaching staff that they don't need to waste roster spots on similar players (Triolo, Frazier, Peguero, Bae, etc., etc., etc...).
Kiley McDaniel’s latest mock draft is up. The three college lefties go in the first three picks in the following order: Anderson, Doyle, Arnold. Holliday then goes to the Rockies. He has the Cards taking Jo Jo Parker.
In this scenario he has the Pirates taking Arquette, with BIlly Carlson and Seth Hernandez also possible. He has Willits going at #7 to the Marlins, Hernandez to the Reds, and Carlson to the White Sox.
Carlson is about three months younger than Griffin. I know some teams shy away from older HS players, but I don't know that the Pirates are one of them.
Age is more important for hitters in my opinion. Even in college hitters don't usually face the quality of off speed and velocity on a regular bases. When you add on physical projection it makes a difference.
Probably. Pitchers don’t seem to have a recognized aging curve like hitters. Although I guess a 17-yr-old has that slightly increased chance of a velo spike compared to an 18-yr-old.
I like him but not at pick 6, I think PNC would limit his power and he still has a good bit of swing and miss. It's just not a good year for top end college bats. It's a fairly deep class though just not much separation.
I was leading the charge on that, just in principle as his ceiling seems to me to be low. But some disagree.
The problem with college position players is that they turn pro at age 21 or 22 and they need to get move quickly if they are going to be stars. The way things work now with the later draft, guys sign late, get a few at bats, then muck around in whatever they call the instructional league now. Next thing you know you’ve got a #6 overall pick basically starting his first full season at Bradenton in the FCL at age 22. Griffin, the #9 overall pick, is playing one level higher at age 19.
Arquette is playing short, but his likely move apparently is to third base.
Anyway, I don’t think he’s a future star, but I could be wrong.
Your second paragraph hits on an irritant to me. Should come across in the discussion of the late-round hitters. They need to get moving, but it’s almost another draft and they’re just getting their careers started.
I know Barry Bonds is one of the greatest players ever, but let’s consider his case. He was drafted #5 overall at age 21 in the 1985 draft, one of the all time great drafts. I forget where he was assigned initially, but he was in AAA in 1986, still 21 years old. He was called up in June 1986, just before he turned 22.
I just don’t see this happening anymore across MLB. Wyatt Langford with the Rangers is the exception.
You just know that if the Pirates draft Arquette, he will begin the 2026 season at Bradenton.
his last two R1 college bats started in Greensboro the year they were drafted (caveat for NickyG in the pandemic year).
Jebb started his first full season in greensboro.
maybe this take is too crankish, but i just don't think mid-round college bats are very good or deserving of a higher start. org guys playing org guy roles. i sometimes questions if there's enough talent to honestly spread around 30 teams.
#5: Kurt Brown (a high school catcher to the White Sox; ouch)
#6: Barry Bonds
And it goes on …. Pete Incaviglia went #8 to the Expos. Walt Weiss #11 to the A’s. Gregg Jeffries #20 to the Mets. Rafael Palmeiro to the Cubs at #22.
This has to be the all-time draft for cumulative WAR in the first round. The Giants drafted Will Clark, and in retrospect you can say they actually blew it by not taking Bobby Bonds’ son. Incredible.
Moving up the complex leagues to a May start and removing the short-season leagues does really delay and hinder players getting started in the professional careers.
showcasification of development. I don't think the clubs see it as a delay that players are getting into *games* later, and I'm not sure that mentality is proving successful.
WTM has been pounding the drum of how this all has degenerated play in the complex leagues and A-ball. I am OK with the removal of the short-season leagues, because this helps the smaller market clubs overall: with less minor-league overhead and developmental costs. But I don't understand the reasoning for moving up the start of the complex league season. Why have no where for the guys drafted to play?
I had a dream (nightmare? premonition?) last night that we traded Skenes to the Phillies in the middle of a game for like a Colin Moran type package, but I was on the field for some reason and was running around frantically to each player and they all just shrugged like "It's the Pirates...what do you expect?"
Johan De Los Santos, SS, Pirates: The highest bonus the Pirates awarded in the most recent international signing period went to shortstop Johan De Los Santos, the younger brother of fellow Pittsburgh prospect Yordany De Los Santos. The younger player, who will not turn 17 until July 24, has hit the ground running in his pro debut. On Tuesday, he went 3-for-3 with a double, an RBI, a walk, two runs scored and two stolen bases in his team's win over the Tigers. He is now 7-for-22 to begin the season in the Dominican Summer League.
Henry Davis has a 71 wRC+ and BR has him as a positive on offense. That's 29% below league average. I'm guessing BR goes by positional average rather than hitters in general.
These numbers aren’t additive because they all have different amounts of ABs. But cumulatively it would MAYBE be 1.0. Or to say it differently if you cut everyone but Cruz and just picked a random grab bag of AAA players the offense would be better.
An excellent day of watching the Draft Combine - A very strong field of possible No. 1 picks, especially for the Pirates who will pick 6th about a month from now. Who will be left for the Pirates? One of the following should be available at No. 6 - Liam Doyle, LHSP Tennessee, Seth Hernandez, RHSP Corona HS, CA, and Eli Willits, MI, Corona HS, CA.
Doyle had possibly the best FB in College this year and could be a fast riser through the system. Hernandez could be the best HS Pitcher available. Do not know much about Willits other than the "experts" like him a lot. Looking for a LH power hitter - Brandon Compton, Ariz St, but probably not at No. 6!
Thanks to Anthony for posting about my new book aka my Christmas shopping fund. The last two books dealt with very obscure players, while the headline players here are two of the most famous in team history. I approached it the same way, spending a chapter on each family, telling their stories, while trying to find something unique about their place in team history. Some are easy such as the Waners or O'Brien twins, but all get their time. Thanks in advance if you decide to purchase it or any of my four other Pirates history books.
The Athletic has a list of top 30 trade targets for this year’s trade deadline. (I know, I know, another damn list —- these sites love lists). Heaney is 22 and Bednar is 25.
Only thing I’d change is the order they’re in. Bullpen arms are more valuable come postseason time than back end arms, Bednar seems to have recaptured some juice, and has a year of control beyond this one.
where does keller rank? *ducks*
Keller is not listed but I'd put him in the top 10. He's for sure getting dumped just because of his salary.
I think now is the time
Incoming!!!!!!
Would've really like to see Bubba get through Rocchio-DeLauter-Noel-Kayfus three times.
I count just one whiff in 8 PA against those four against 2 hits and 2 runs.
Shouldn't be taken to sour on him overall, but that's close to big league-quality lineup and middling results. Starting to buy into the line of thought that he actually could use more dev time.
Hayes's offensive ineptitude is just staggering. In over 250 ABs he has amassed a .226 Avg, 2 HRs and a putrid 19 RBIs. I don't care if he's the second coming of Brooks Robinson he's got to go.
Option him and have him work out his swing. The approach he's been using for the last 2 years simply isn't working.
Let Triolo play 3rd full-time while Hayes is optioned to find out if he can get close to being a league-average bat and if not, maybe it's time for Triolo to go.
They owe him $30 million over 4 years on a guaranteed contract after this season. There is no just making him go away.
Next year he will have enough service time to reject a minor-league assignment. To release him would require eating his entire contract in one season, which Nutting will never do. They are stuck with Hayes unless they can find someone upon whom to unload his contract, which will require prospect capital. It is not a happy situation and another of the unfortunate legacies that Cherington will leave for the next GM.
Don't think they have to eat the entire contract in one season -- they just keep paying him through 2029. And your point is valid -- if Nutting won't eat $2M for a half-season of Pham, no way he'll cut a contract like Hayes'.
Yeah.. you're right, they can pay out the contract over its life, but there is little point in that: paying someone to do nothing. They need to move him to utility/defensive sub and somehow find a way to live with 8% of the annual major-league payroll tied up in a defensive sub, which makes a difficult situation even more difficult.
Moving him to SS is the only play that makes any sense, but these are the Pirates, so don't expect them to do anything that makes sense.
He'll never be a shortstop. Lacks the arm and the range.
Their current SS lacks arm and range…
i know its an extreme level of scarcity mentality, but there's just such little upside to a club like the Pirates extending anybody.
Hayes is on about the least-risky type of extension you can imagine and a chronic back injury still shoots them for it.
He had extreme groundball batting characteristics when they signed him to that extension, and all they really received in return for all that guaranteed money was 2 free-agent years and an option for $12 million for a third. They gave up 2 pre-arb. years an 3 arb. years: a total maybe, if everything had gone better, of $37 million, meaning they paid him effectively $55 million for 3 free agent seasons or $43 million for 2 seasons. The only way that contract works for the Pirates is if Hayes had become a $35 million-dollar-per-year player in his 30s: a terrible contract by any measure.
I didn't like the contract at the time. (For the record, I thought that they should have traded Reynolds too). Guys like Hayes and Reynolds are semi-replaceable, even the groundball-hitting .250 BA Hayes who sometimes knocks out a linedrive or groundball to the corners for extra bases they thought that they signed, instead of the weak groundball junk hitter they got.
The only guys that the Pirates should be looking to extend are a couple of irreplaceable players: i.e. Cruz and Skenes. The middling or above average guys should not be extended, especially very early in their careers.
i hear you. *only* thing i liked about Hayes was that it was moderately front loaded at a time they were clearly tanking and wouldn't have been spending that money anyways. Not exactly putting it to use at this point, though.
elephant in the room is that the swing he's using is explicitly made to keep his back healthy.
completely shot any explosiveness he had.
poor guy might just be toast.
I’m afraid that is the issue. He has chronic back problems and has adjusted his swing to allow him to play at all. What a disaster.\
he's bizarre in that the sum of roughly average to above average parts - contact, chase, exit velo - somehow equates to far less. He isn't even putting it on the ground any more than he was when he was at least a rosterable bat.
The biggest thing that stands out is his near complete inability to pull the ball. the swing just doesn't allow him to do any damage at all.
He needs to be converted to shortstop. Or at least a utility player.
He's not a shortstop and never will be. He's not a 1B. Maybe, in a stretch, he could be a 2B. As a professional, he's played 8409 innings at 3B and exactly 5 as a shortstop. No 2B, no 1B.
I think had he not been the son of an MLB 3rd baseman and his defense not (legitimately) other-worldly, he would have been converted long ago. I think he has the hands, arm, and possibly the range to handle SS, regardless of how many innings he's played there in his career.
At this point, he looks like a clone of Triolo, who handles SS at least adequately.
strong agree.
can't say for sure until we see him there, obviously, but i don't see from a skill standpoint what would hold him back.
If they are indeed stuck with his contract (which it looks like they are), and they don't have a SS ready in the wings after IKF (which it looks like they don't), they should strongly consider having him play SS (and other positions). Then, when Griffin is ready, if he still isn't hitting at all, make him a full-time utility player. I can stomach having him take a roster spot if I know he's going to provide solid defense wherever they put him, even if he can't hit. He's just an offensive black-hole as a regular 3B, defense be-damned.
Also may hopefully convince our front-office/coaching staff that they don't need to waste roster spots on similar players (Triolo, Frazier, Peguero, Bae, etc., etc., etc...).
Kiley McDaniel’s latest mock draft is up. The three college lefties go in the first three picks in the following order: Anderson, Doyle, Arnold. Holliday then goes to the Rockies. He has the Cards taking Jo Jo Parker.
In this scenario he has the Pirates taking Arquette, with BIlly Carlson and Seth Hernandez also possible. He has Willits going at #7 to the Marlins, Hernandez to the Reds, and Carlson to the White Sox.
Carlson is about three months younger than Griffin. I know some teams shy away from older HS players, but I don't know that the Pirates are one of them.
Hernandez is older than Sterling if I'm remembering Sterling's age correctly.
Carlson is also about a year and a half older than Willits.
Is age bigger factor in hitting prospects as opposed to pitching prospects?
Age is more important for hitters in my opinion. Even in college hitters don't usually face the quality of off speed and velocity on a regular bases. When you add on physical projection it makes a difference.
Probably. Pitchers don’t seem to have a recognized aging curve like hitters. Although I guess a 17-yr-old has that slightly increased chance of a velo spike compared to an 18-yr-old.
I’d also guess that, with the injury factor in arms, it matters less.
Weren’t there some reservations here about Arquette?
I like him but not at pick 6, I think PNC would limit his power and he still has a good bit of swing and miss. It's just not a good year for top end college bats. It's a fairly deep class though just not much separation.
I was leading the charge on that, just in principle as his ceiling seems to me to be low. But some disagree.
The problem with college position players is that they turn pro at age 21 or 22 and they need to get move quickly if they are going to be stars. The way things work now with the later draft, guys sign late, get a few at bats, then muck around in whatever they call the instructional league now. Next thing you know you’ve got a #6 overall pick basically starting his first full season at Bradenton in the FCL at age 22. Griffin, the #9 overall pick, is playing one level higher at age 19.
Arquette is playing short, but his likely move apparently is to third base.
Anyway, I don’t think he’s a future star, but I could be wrong.
Your second paragraph hits on an irritant to me. Should come across in the discussion of the late-round hitters. They need to get moving, but it’s almost another draft and they’re just getting their careers started.
I know Barry Bonds is one of the greatest players ever, but let’s consider his case. He was drafted #5 overall at age 21 in the 1985 draft, one of the all time great drafts. I forget where he was assigned initially, but he was in AAA in 1986, still 21 years old. He was called up in June 1986, just before he turned 22.
I just don’t see this happening anymore across MLB. Wyatt Langford with the Rangers is the exception.
You just know that if the Pirates draft Arquette, he will begin the 2026 season at Bradenton.
that would be unprecedented under Cherington.
his last two R1 college bats started in Greensboro the year they were drafted (caveat for NickyG in the pandemic year).
Jebb started his first full season in greensboro.
maybe this take is too crankish, but i just don't think mid-round college bats are very good or deserving of a higher start. org guys playing org guy roles. i sometimes questions if there's enough talent to honestly spread around 30 teams.
1985 draft:
#1: BJ Surhoff
#2: Will Clark
#3: Bobby Witt
#4: Barry Larkin
#5: Kurt Brown (a high school catcher to the White Sox; ouch)
#6: Barry Bonds
And it goes on …. Pete Incaviglia went #8 to the Expos. Walt Weiss #11 to the A’s. Gregg Jeffries #20 to the Mets. Rafael Palmeiro to the Cubs at #22.
This has to be the all-time draft for cumulative WAR in the first round. The Giants drafted Will Clark, and in retrospect you can say they actually blew it by not taking Bobby Bonds’ son. Incredible.
Moving up the complex leagues to a May start and removing the short-season leagues does really delay and hinder players getting started in the professional careers.
showcasification of development. I don't think the clubs see it as a delay that players are getting into *games* later, and I'm not sure that mentality is proving successful.
WTM has been pounding the drum of how this all has degenerated play in the complex leagues and A-ball. I am OK with the removal of the short-season leagues, because this helps the smaller market clubs overall: with less minor-league overhead and developmental costs. But I don't understand the reasoning for moving up the start of the complex league season. Why have no where for the guys drafted to play?
And maybe have the draft in Omaha after the end of the college WS. Draft Kade Anderson on Sunday, he makes his first start in Pittsburgh on Friday.
I had a dream (nightmare? premonition?) last night that we traded Skenes to the Phillies in the middle of a game for like a Colin Moran type package, but I was on the field for some reason and was running around frantically to each player and they all just shrugged like "It's the Pirates...what do you expect?"
Being a pirates fan comes with its own particular flavor of existential dread
With Reynolds going to the paternity list, someone will be called up. Suwinski and Cook have both been pretty hot lately.
Here's a thought -- bring one of them up, and when Reynolds returns, send Pham to live on a farm upstate.
You always have the insider info on the weekly snack spread!
It’s Cook
The BCFC approves
First thought when I saw it was Cook: This will please Administrative Sky 😉😉
Bouts dang time. Time to tune back in. Brenda's Kostopoulous is bringing her famous spanakopita. She will "cook" it at the party. 🎉
Seriously looking forward to seeing this guy and Morel next spring.
From a BA list of rookie ball standouts:
Johan De Los Santos, SS, Pirates: The highest bonus the Pirates awarded in the most recent international signing period went to shortstop Johan De Los Santos, the younger brother of fellow Pittsburgh prospect Yordany De Los Santos. The younger player, who will not turn 17 until July 24, has hit the ground running in his pro debut. On Tuesday, he went 3-for-3 with a double, an RBI, a walk, two runs scored and two stolen bases in his team's win over the Tigers. He is now 7-for-22 to begin the season in the Dominican Summer League.
The DSL Tigers team has a stream, so watched that one. That speed is very much legit for Johan. Sweet looking swing too
Only 2 strikeouts is impressive with the 7 walks and 8 stolen bases. He might make it to the fcl next year at "just 17".
Per Baseball Reference here are the Pirates oWAR this season
2.0 O Cruz
1.1 IKF
0.6 A McCutchen
0.4 H Davis
0.2 A Frazier
0.1 J Bart
0.0 L Peguero
0.0 N Solak
0.0 B Sullivan
-0.1 N Gonzalez
-0.1 J Triolo
-0.1 T Cheng
-0.1 J Bae
-0.2 B Reynolds
-0.2 S Horwitz
-0.3 E Rodriguez
-0.3 M Gorski
-0.4 J Suwinski
-0.4 A Canario
-0.5 K Hayes
-1.0 T Pham
Nick is probably close to been an average producer, he has hit the ball well, but it seems to find glove more than grass.
Henry Davis has a 71 wRC+ and BR has him as a positive on offense. That's 29% below league average. I'm guessing BR goes by positional average rather than hitters in general.
That’s the way I understood it.
Pretty sure this is correct.
I see Pham is still on the team…
Where would this team be without his leadership?
These numbers aren’t additive because they all have different amounts of ABs. But cumulatively it would MAYBE be 1.0. Or to say it differently if you cut everyone but Cruz and just picked a random grab bag of AAA players the offense would be better.
We need a new measure, like Wins Above Cherington (WAC). Zero would be defined as Pham. Then everybody else could have positive WAC.
How about we get a new GM and measure his progress to define the scale for WAC
you say such hurtful things
If Iverson Allen doesn't make the majors I will be extremely disappointed.
"Batting practice? We talkin' about BATTING PRACTICE???"
An excellent day of watching the Draft Combine - A very strong field of possible No. 1 picks, especially for the Pirates who will pick 6th about a month from now. Who will be left for the Pirates? One of the following should be available at No. 6 - Liam Doyle, LHSP Tennessee, Seth Hernandez, RHSP Corona HS, CA, and Eli Willits, MI, Corona HS, CA.
Doyle had possibly the best FB in College this year and could be a fast riser through the system. Hernandez could be the best HS Pitcher available. Do not know much about Willits other than the "experts" like him a lot. Looking for a LH power hitter - Brandon Compton, Ariz St, but probably not at No. 6!
Thanks to Anthony for posting about my new book aka my Christmas shopping fund. The last two books dealt with very obscure players, while the headline players here are two of the most famous in team history. I approached it the same way, spending a chapter on each family, telling their stories, while trying to find something unique about their place in team history. Some are easy such as the Waners or O'Brien twins, but all get their time. Thanks in advance if you decide to purchase it or any of my four other Pirates history books.