My mind immediately goes (thanks to your many excellent posts on the subject) to pitch shape. We keep hearing Q’s is sub-optimal (Ortiz too?) and I think you’ve also hinted that Skenes’ might be as well.
Is pitch shape something that can be developed or is it something that is more innate and needs to be a primary drafting criterion?
If the latter, and if PS’ fastball shape isn’t elite or even above average, can he paper over the problem with triple digit velocity alone (along with a supposedly elite slider and/or change?) in pro ball?
I think you can get away with some poor shape with plus velo, you can also have lower velo with plus shape. But u can’t have poor velo and poor shape (QP, which I have an article schedule for Friday on him).
That’s one thing I plan on exploring this year as far as improving/working on pitch shape/metrics
I know Keller’s pitch shape was bad and it seems that he has found an answer. Seems to be sequencing since he had an abnormal amount of looking strike out on his 4 seam FB.
While both have to prove it and it looks promising, that statement is not as ludicrous as it seems on the surface. I think Cruz is a difference maker this season and if the Bucs get 2nd base solid, say with Triolo winning that sweepstakes, We've got a pretty darn good batting order.
I think the pitching stands to be solid too inside of two years and the Bucs' window will be opening.
Gonzales is gonna win that job, I gave up on Hayes after being in his corner for years, and he seemed to have turned it around, I gave up on Gonzales, so he’s gonna figure it out. My reasoning is solid with absolutely zero emotions behind it.
Congrats on getting into your new place and out of the hotel. Your productivity is going to skyrocket after settling in. Your content has been outstanding and now you'll have some comfort, space and some seclusion when needed. Thanks and best wishes to a great new home.
Hoping for Tennessee product Todd Helton to get the number of votes needed to get into the Hall of Fame. First saw him play when he was 13 and our team lost to his team in the Championship game of a tournament. A close game and we had a lefty on the mound who ended up being drafted himself. He was ahead in the count and threw a low, outside FB that Helton drove to LC on a line drive that embedded in the hill about 30 feet beyond the fence. The first of many Holy Crap moments through HS - he played for Central HS and our HS, Oak Ridge, was in the same District. So, we got to see him quite a bit and got to know him.
Unique story - 1995 we were in Hawaii for a Conference and decided to visit Maui after the conference ended. Checked in and while in the lobby I saw the local paper and an article about the Maui Stingrays and Todd was mentioned.
Some thoughts that should not change anybody's opinion but I think are worth mentioning. As reported on PP a while ago the development process was overhauled basically in year 2 under Ben which would be 2020. This report goes back 2012. This does not change the historical perspective (spending is a part of this equation and the person with the $ did not change in 2019) or why the Pirates are where they are. But whether it is using rose colored glasses or just trying to realistically view the future we need to examine progress since 2020 IMO which is a mixed bag. I personally think the current AA projected rotation shows a decent success rate for draftees. However, going from AA to MLB one can easily argue is the REAL test. Personally I don't think this view point drastically changes the overall grade, but we can rightly bitch about the past but must also view present trends as maybe a better gauge.
In general, I agree. 2020 is coming up to it's show year, with Mlod currently in the bullpen and Jones likely to make his debut next season. 2021 draft is on the cusp of making it's impact.
All that said, the pitching development attributed to this regime has still left a lot to be desired itself. Quinn and Ortiz weren't their acquisitions, but were almost primarily developed under this current regime. They've left quite a bit to be desired. Then you look at specific trade targets of theirs, such as Yajure or Ro, and they haven't gone well.
Which is why in part I don't think Ben is on the hotseat, but I could see it easily beginning to warm up if this year doesn't show substantial progress. You have your two "advanced college bats" ready to provide at the big league level, with both having a rough go in their first cup of coffee. Especially with the lack of acquisitions, they're likely to lean HEAVILY on their depth pitching: Priester, Ortiz, Jones, Solo, Bubba, Harrington, Skenes, Ashcraft, Sullivan, and Burrows could all potentially see a debut. Obviously not all of them, cause that be a major 40 man issue. But a good chunk of their "developed arms" are going to be put to the test this year. And if no one steps up, well, we're in the same exact spot come next off-season. "We need to sign 3-4 arms, cause who deserves a starting spot?" That isn't including recent specifically targeted arms like Wolf and Falter, Falter whom Ben seems to really like (mentioned by Mackey on NS9 podcast).
On the optimistic side, say a couple arms step up this year, then you got a glut of trade fodder.
I agree with one area of disagreement where the two us engaged in a brief dialog back on PP over a year ago. Pittsburgh = low pressure: 100% agree. I disagree on the ambition of Ben. While there is absolutely less pressure and he could mail it in, I don't think you get where he is (in baseball or any industry) without an ego and drive. That doesn't mean he will ultimately succeed or is the right person, but I don't think he came here just to glide into retirement. Totally IMO I think he came here with the goal to prove his success and move to a bigger paying / better job at some point. That is just how I think people who get where he is operate based some on my real world experience in corporate America.
My concern about Ben hasn't been his desire to succeed, but that the desire comes from wanting to be known as a GM who built a team from nothing. If he succeeds, then in the end I guess we could say who cares what his motivation was. But I think it's made the "rebuild" longer and more painful than it needed to be. We can't undo history, but I wish we had brought in someone whose primary motivation was restoring the pride of the organization and its bond with the city, much like Hurdle discussed when he was hired.
I think you’re underestimating the lure of staying employed. Also, he already IS at the top. There are only 30 of these jobs and they’re the peak of the pyramid.
Cherington left a job in the pressure cooker in Boston, where he was going to face consequences if he didn’t win. He ended up in the one job where the owner sets the bar the lowest in the sport. Zero accountability as long as the payroll is low and there are no lurid headlines. I don’t think that difference is a coincidence. Cherington found the closest thing to life tenure there is in MLB.
And here is where we disagreed before and until I show up in Bradenton and we have the ultimate thumb wrestling duel, we will not come to an agreement. I agree fully less pressure, less accountability etc. but I still think he didn't even get to Boston and now Pittsburgh without an ego and a desire to not just mail it in. And now I must logoff as my thumb strengthening trainer is here.
Do you think that Huntington was fired pretty much solely because of the Crick/Vasquez stuff? If that stuff hadn’t happened he’d still be here, in all likelihood?
Yep, I do. That and generally stories about Hurdle losing the clubhouse. (The criminal stuff obviously wasn't his fault, but it'd be naive to think that sort of thing doesn't play a role in these decisions.)
You know what it feels like, an episode of Undercover Boss. Ben went from a glorified position with endless assets, to a job that requires actual intuition and resourcefulness. Went from two big pocketed orgs that could afford to withstand covering their mistakes to one that can't.
And that is where unless we were in the negotiating room when GMs were interviewed we will never know the attitude / sales pitch / promises made. Is this a job nobody with real ambition wants so Ben can cruise or (kind of my thinking or hoping) looked at as a stepping stone / proving ground / career reclamation. Ideally as a fan I hope this is like coaching Tulane to success in college football. Odds are against you and if you succeed (we as fans temporarily win) you will be gone to bigger and better things. And we need to be real... we are Tulane (or if you prefer a Power 5 - Indiana) in the world of MLB.
I do think there was some semblance of a plan, and a plan of "building the entire organization up to compete EVERY year" is a worthy plan. The unfortunate reality of the situation is that Ben and Co. are just clearly really bad at developing and putting that plan into place.
It isn't entirely out of question, but they're going to need EVERYTHING to click this year.
I fully agree. I tried hard not to make it a Ben excuse post or a rosy outlook, but just wanted to set at least in my brain where the clock started (re)-ticking. In the Pittsburgh market (I don't care who the owner is), they have to nail drafting and development.
Media members like Kovacevic and Mackey and even Tim Williams were very quick to equate change with improvement. Obviously it takes time for results, but as you say, the early evidence is that we're only doing things differently and not better, and possibly even worse.
In fact, when I read how guys like Burrows embraced being able to control their development as if it was all unicorns and rainbows, I couldn't help but think there's a darker side to that. Is a 20-year-old better equipped to guide his development than experienced coaches and directors? I don't like what was described as Stark's approach, but I'm not sure that we haven't overcorrected.
-Priester's surprise to me was howinconsistent he was in triple A last year. Then maybe a bigger surprise was that he was promoted to the majors.
-Ortiz seemed to come out of nowhere the second half of 2022, but not shocked it didn't carry over to 2023.
-Roansy looked like a solid choice to be a 1 or 2 starter in 2023. The fact that he dropped off like he did is baffling.
-The fact that all 3 of them had seasons as bad as they did makes me believe that the organization is missing something with their development. (for certain types of players)
Those examples were the primary reason I added the AA to MLB leap is the real test. It's nice that the AA rotation looks promising, but there is still a long road to travel (ie. Ro, Q, Ortiz experience).
I'm willing to continue to give this development plan more time just because it does feel more in line with what the rest of the league is doing albeit the execution needs to be better. Huntington's strategies had outlived their success and if we continued to follow them we would be significantly worse as an organization.
Congrats on purchase of a home. Definitely a milestone in life.
I wonder how Pirates would fare if they had picked 2011 instead of 2012?
Mets want Holderman back
Three way Mets, Blue Jays Pirates trade is going down as we speak
just need Bellinger to sign with the Mets
Holderman, Jared Jones and Endy to the Mets
Alonso to the Blue Jays
Vlad, Manoah and Varsho to the Pirates
My mind immediately goes (thanks to your many excellent posts on the subject) to pitch shape. We keep hearing Q’s is sub-optimal (Ortiz too?) and I think you’ve also hinted that Skenes’ might be as well.
Is pitch shape something that can be developed or is it something that is more innate and needs to be a primary drafting criterion?
If the latter, and if PS’ fastball shape isn’t elite or even above average, can he paper over the problem with triple digit velocity alone (along with a supposedly elite slider and/or change?) in pro ball?
I think you can get away with some poor shape with plus velo, you can also have lower velo with plus shape. But u can’t have poor velo and poor shape (QP, which I have an article schedule for Friday on him).
That’s one thing I plan on exploring this year as far as improving/working on pitch shape/metrics
I know Keller’s pitch shape was bad and it seems that he has found an answer. Seems to be sequencing since he had an abnormal amount of looking strike out on his 4 seam FB.
Congrats and good luck on your new home Anthony.
Paul Skenes and Oneil Cruz are absolute superstars
Will carry our team to a championship no doubt
While both have to prove it and it looks promising, that statement is not as ludicrous as it seems on the surface. I think Cruz is a difference maker this season and if the Bucs get 2nd base solid, say with Triolo winning that sweepstakes, We've got a pretty darn good batting order.
I think the pitching stands to be solid too inside of two years and the Bucs' window will be opening.
not since Cutch and Cole have we had players that we could say compete to be the best players in the league
Gonzales is gonna win that job, I gave up on Hayes after being in his corner for years, and he seemed to have turned it around, I gave up on Gonzales, so he’s gonna figure it out. My reasoning is solid with absolutely zero emotions behind it.
Keep us updated on all life things and different appearances AM!
Was also surprised to see skenes mentioned as a future closer but I guess a power pitcher always has some of that risk
Congrats on getting into your new place and out of the hotel. Your productivity is going to skyrocket after settling in. Your content has been outstanding and now you'll have some comfort, space and some seclusion when needed. Thanks and best wishes to a great new home.
Hoping for Tennessee product Todd Helton to get the number of votes needed to get into the Hall of Fame. First saw him play when he was 13 and our team lost to his team in the Championship game of a tournament. A close game and we had a lefty on the mound who ended up being drafted himself. He was ahead in the count and threw a low, outside FB that Helton drove to LC on a line drive that embedded in the hill about 30 feet beyond the fence. The first of many Holy Crap moments through HS - he played for Central HS and our HS, Oak Ridge, was in the same District. So, we got to see him quite a bit and got to know him.
Unique story - 1995 we were in Hawaii for a Conference and decided to visit Maui after the conference ended. Checked in and while in the lobby I saw the local paper and an article about the Maui Stingrays and Todd was mentioned.
Some thoughts that should not change anybody's opinion but I think are worth mentioning. As reported on PP a while ago the development process was overhauled basically in year 2 under Ben which would be 2020. This report goes back 2012. This does not change the historical perspective (spending is a part of this equation and the person with the $ did not change in 2019) or why the Pirates are where they are. But whether it is using rose colored glasses or just trying to realistically view the future we need to examine progress since 2020 IMO which is a mixed bag. I personally think the current AA projected rotation shows a decent success rate for draftees. However, going from AA to MLB one can easily argue is the REAL test. Personally I don't think this view point drastically changes the overall grade, but we can rightly bitch about the past but must also view present trends as maybe a better gauge.
In general, I agree. 2020 is coming up to it's show year, with Mlod currently in the bullpen and Jones likely to make his debut next season. 2021 draft is on the cusp of making it's impact.
All that said, the pitching development attributed to this regime has still left a lot to be desired itself. Quinn and Ortiz weren't their acquisitions, but were almost primarily developed under this current regime. They've left quite a bit to be desired. Then you look at specific trade targets of theirs, such as Yajure or Ro, and they haven't gone well.
Which is why in part I don't think Ben is on the hotseat, but I could see it easily beginning to warm up if this year doesn't show substantial progress. You have your two "advanced college bats" ready to provide at the big league level, with both having a rough go in their first cup of coffee. Especially with the lack of acquisitions, they're likely to lean HEAVILY on their depth pitching: Priester, Ortiz, Jones, Solo, Bubba, Harrington, Skenes, Ashcraft, Sullivan, and Burrows could all potentially see a debut. Obviously not all of them, cause that be a major 40 man issue. But a good chunk of their "developed arms" are going to be put to the test this year. And if no one steps up, well, we're in the same exact spot come next off-season. "We need to sign 3-4 arms, cause who deserves a starting spot?" That isn't including recent specifically targeted arms like Wolf and Falter, Falter whom Ben seems to really like (mentioned by Mackey on NS9 podcast).
On the optimistic side, say a couple arms step up this year, then you got a glut of trade fodder.
This all makes perfect sense except for one thing: There is no hot seat in Pgh.
https://youtu.be/FRZDa-MmjoQ?si=CIphL3WDbM1kSBF2
I agree with one area of disagreement where the two us engaged in a brief dialog back on PP over a year ago. Pittsburgh = low pressure: 100% agree. I disagree on the ambition of Ben. While there is absolutely less pressure and he could mail it in, I don't think you get where he is (in baseball or any industry) without an ego and drive. That doesn't mean he will ultimately succeed or is the right person, but I don't think he came here just to glide into retirement. Totally IMO I think he came here with the goal to prove his success and move to a bigger paying / better job at some point. That is just how I think people who get where he is operate based some on my real world experience in corporate America.
My concern about Ben hasn't been his desire to succeed, but that the desire comes from wanting to be known as a GM who built a team from nothing. If he succeeds, then in the end I guess we could say who cares what his motivation was. But I think it's made the "rebuild" longer and more painful than it needed to be. We can't undo history, but I wish we had brought in someone whose primary motivation was restoring the pride of the organization and its bond with the city, much like Hurdle discussed when he was hired.
I think you’re underestimating the lure of staying employed. Also, he already IS at the top. There are only 30 of these jobs and they’re the peak of the pyramid.
Cherington left a job in the pressure cooker in Boston, where he was going to face consequences if he didn’t win. He ended up in the one job where the owner sets the bar the lowest in the sport. Zero accountability as long as the payroll is low and there are no lurid headlines. I don’t think that difference is a coincidence. Cherington found the closest thing to life tenure there is in MLB.
And here is where we disagreed before and until I show up in Bradenton and we have the ultimate thumb wrestling duel, we will not come to an agreement. I agree fully less pressure, less accountability etc. but I still think he didn't even get to Boston and now Pittsburgh without an ego and a desire to not just mail it in. And now I must logoff as my thumb strengthening trainer is here.
My money is on you, I saw that the line is 5-1, put $50. Better be training.
Haha
Do you think that Huntington was fired pretty much solely because of the Crick/Vasquez stuff? If that stuff hadn’t happened he’d still be here, in all likelihood?
Yep, I do. That and generally stories about Hurdle losing the clubhouse. (The criminal stuff obviously wasn't his fault, but it'd be naive to think that sort of thing doesn't play a role in these decisions.)
You know what it feels like, an episode of Undercover Boss. Ben went from a glorified position with endless assets, to a job that requires actual intuition and resourcefulness. Went from two big pocketed orgs that could afford to withstand covering their mistakes to one that can't.
And that is where unless we were in the negotiating room when GMs were interviewed we will never know the attitude / sales pitch / promises made. Is this a job nobody with real ambition wants so Ben can cruise or (kind of my thinking or hoping) looked at as a stepping stone / proving ground / career reclamation. Ideally as a fan I hope this is like coaching Tulane to success in college football. Odds are against you and if you succeed (we as fans temporarily win) you will be gone to bigger and better things. And we need to be real... we are Tulane (or if you prefer a Power 5 - Indiana) in the world of MLB.
I do think there was some semblance of a plan, and a plan of "building the entire organization up to compete EVERY year" is a worthy plan. The unfortunate reality of the situation is that Ben and Co. are just clearly really bad at developing and putting that plan into place.
It isn't entirely out of question, but they're going to need EVERYTHING to click this year.
I fully agree. I tried hard not to make it a Ben excuse post or a rosy outlook, but just wanted to set at least in my brain where the clock started (re)-ticking. In the Pittsburgh market (I don't care who the owner is), they have to nail drafting and development.
The early returns on the development change doesn’t help much. In fact, it may look worse. Look at Q, Ortiz, and Ro and what happened this year.
Media members like Kovacevic and Mackey and even Tim Williams were very quick to equate change with improvement. Obviously it takes time for results, but as you say, the early evidence is that we're only doing things differently and not better, and possibly even worse.
In fact, when I read how guys like Burrows embraced being able to control their development as if it was all unicorns and rainbows, I couldn't help but think there's a darker side to that. Is a 20-year-old better equipped to guide his development than experienced coaches and directors? I don't like what was described as Stark's approach, but I'm not sure that we haven't overcorrected.
-Priester's surprise to me was howinconsistent he was in triple A last year. Then maybe a bigger surprise was that he was promoted to the majors.
-Ortiz seemed to come out of nowhere the second half of 2022, but not shocked it didn't carry over to 2023.
-Roansy looked like a solid choice to be a 1 or 2 starter in 2023. The fact that he dropped off like he did is baffling.
-The fact that all 3 of them had seasons as bad as they did makes me believe that the organization is missing something with their development. (for certain types of players)
Ro did not look like a 1 or a 2. He looked like a good starting pitching prospect, but nothing out of the ordinary.
Those examples were the primary reason I added the AA to MLB leap is the real test. It's nice that the AA rotation looks promising, but there is still a long road to travel (ie. Ro, Q, Ortiz experience).
I'm willing to continue to give this development plan more time just because it does feel more in line with what the rest of the league is doing albeit the execution needs to be better. Huntington's strategies had outlived their success and if we continued to follow them we would be significantly worse as an organization.
It’s been five years, what’s another five?
Quite an accomplishment to get this up and running successfully while living in temporary quarters.
Good luck - I'll offer a virtual bottle of Italian Prosecco.
Here's a virtual bottle of champagne!