With Sanders and Graves, it's getting crowded up there on Federal Street.
Do we really need 3 Assistant GMs? Can there be an actual player strategy with 4 GM's having input? Or will this just continue the most "safe" roster construction?
You can pack more smart people onto a management team if you just keep creating more and more pompous job titles without actually changing the overall power structure.
From my experiences in coaching: If you have 3 assistants all on the same page with defined roles all wanting to win, it works. However, if you have just one assistant that's main goal is just to move up the ladder, you have one too many assistants.
Ideally they all have their own roles that they can really dive into given whatever their individual strengths are, but if not then i could definitely see how a too many cooks dynamic can develop
The signing of Nick Martinez was a good move by the Reds, but possibly costly for a guy heading into his age 34 season. Using Statcast, Martinez was a +1 RV in 2022 due mostly to his -13 RV for his 4 Seamer. So in '23 the Padres cut usage of the 4 Seamer from 26% to 13%, and upped usage of his better pitches - a Changeup that was a +6 RV in '22 and a +10 RV in '23, and increased usage of his Sinker which was a +4 in '22 and a +2 in '23. The new mix of pitches, with more emphasis on his better pitches resulted in an overall +8 RV in '23. That's what earned him the 2/$26 mil contract.
Good coaching can make that happen. Andre Jackson is a good case. He was a + 8 RV in '23 with 3 pitches, but then one dud pitch that was a -7 and dragged all the rest down. That -7 RV pitch is his Changeup and he threw it 32% of the time. He had a +1 RV Curve that he only threw 6.5% of the time, a 4 Seamer that was a + 5 RV that he threw 44.6%, and a Slider that was a +2 RV that he only threw 17% of the time. Who kept calling the Changeup? Why not more emphasis on the Curve and Slider and cut that percentage of 32% Changeup back to 20% or less. Do the Catchers call the pitches or is it the Coaches who call the majority of the pitches - I think the latter is the case.
The star though in my opinion in '23 was Carmen Mlodzinski, drafted and started 36 games and 155 IP in his first two years, and then switched to a RP in '23. He threw 36 innings and did so with 4 pitches all in the + RV column. 4 Seam was a +5 RV (49.8%), Cutter +2 RV (13.1%), Sweeper +1 RV (22.0%), and a Changeup +1 RV (14.7%). That's a total of +9 RV.
Luis Ortiz was a +8 RV with his Sinker +9 RV (28.3%), Slider -1 RV (32.7%), and Changeup 0 RV (13.8%). But then he had a 4 Seam that was a -14 RV (24.8%). Who kept calling the 4 Seam?
Are these numbers not available to our coaches? The Pirates have pitching resources - we just need to be better able to make adjustments as needed. I'll bet that opposing batters know that Ortiz will throw the 4 seam 1 of every 4 pitches, and that Jackson will throw the Changeup 1 of every 3 pitches.
Man, this is right up my alley. I am guessing most of the RVs would get better, if they threw them less while the RVs would get worse if you threw them more. Andre Jackson is a wild card because he has looked so bad and so good.
Mlodzinski, I'm not sure what to think. When I saw him in a simulated game at Pirates City in February, he seemed to have the closer mentality (high intensity), the mentality of a guy that just throws hard. By looking at the numbers you shared, it looks we should consider stretching his innings.
Agree. By the way, we just used a combination of sabermetrics and the psychological make-up of a player to make our decision. You and I need to incorporate that into baseball. Let's call it "pyschometrics".
What an awesome set of info that really makes me think, good stuff! My worry about Mlod is that his K numbers were not nearly what i would hope for for a quality of backend reliever, do you think that the change in pitch mix would benefit?
I think he has that ability to assist the Pirates this year as both a SP to start 2024, and then a RP after other SP's step up from AAA or off TJ. Not sure he has that one pitch to get big numbers of K's. He was more of a K pitcher in A, but in the upper levels and in MLB last year he has been more of a K/IP guy and that's good.
Related to my reply to you below, maybe Gelles will help with this. She at least was part of a front office that oversaw major developmental successes with pitchers and surely part of that has to do with optimizing pitch usage.
Or maybe I'm just reaching for some reason to believe our pitching will be better next year as we watch interesting FA options sign with rivals.
Moreta, Hernandez, Borucki, and Jackson were our gifts from 2023. Mlodzinski is a product of our Developmental Program - that's 5 new pitchers since the start of 2023, and Celestino on a MiLB Contract was a gift that I think we will really appreciate.
I like your optimism. But, again, I think this goes to the very slowly building bubble in my vewwy, vewwy tiny brain that there are loads of pitchers available who can function but not be stars.
Honestly, I think this is the next great hidden inefficiency.
Especially since innings eaters are going for $10-12M a year this offseason, if we could find a cheap way to put this all together that would be quite the coup. Im not a believer yet, but I could see something here
This is why I keep saying... spend 20+ million on a good pitcher and get innings eaters from the system. Any of Wolf, Jackson, or Falter could be an innings eater not much worse than what you get for 10-12 million.
Good stuff Mel, some of the best stuff I’ve read in a while! I’m a fan of Jackson’s change so this is sobering, wonder what the split is since I feel that he threw it to both lefties and righties....
It may be a good pitch, but not as a primary pitch - 30+% usage. His splits from AAA and MLB with the Dodgers indicate he is tougher on Lefties overall. With the Pirates he was about equal for RH and LH, but had a 3/1 edge in K/BB against RH, and almost 1/1 against LH.
He, Falter, and Wolf all have some potential: each with a serviceable pitch or two and a plus pitch or even two. I think ideally long relief is where you want to slot 2 of those 3 in next year, with the possibility that they could work their way in to the rotation. In the real world, however, one or two of these guys is going to be filling the 5th starter spot and maybe the 4th as well.
With the quality of pitching in the LAD org, it is not surprising to find a kid like him that never really got into that position to impress. His performance last year in 12 appearances/7 Starts is deserving of a longer look this year.
Started with the Buc's in 2009, then a rising star in the Orioles and Astro's front offices, and now to an Assistant GM back with the Pirates and closer to home. Sarah Gelles is an excellent add for a team on the rise.
At this point in the Pirates REBUILD, this move is earth shattering for such a conservative group. Houston, where she was for 4 years, is a good example of a team that has key bats, and three veteran Starting Pitchers - Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy - and they will be paying all three together only $22.6 mil in 2024. That's how they are able to sign a top SP like Justin Verlander for $43 mil.
We can't know if or how much Sarah had to do with the development of those three pitchers, but they were not highly ranked prospects during the start of her time with the Astros. Their kind of development, from being ranked far out of their top 10 to becoming key starters on championship teams, is exactly what we need.
I thought that I had read that she was also involved with MLB Contracts as well as development. I think Javier, 26, is under contract thru 2027. Valdez, 30, has not signed a long term contract, but is due $12.1 mil in his 3rd year of Arb according to MLBTR, Urquidy, 29, who missed much of 2023 with a shoulder issue is due about $3.5 mil in his 1st or 2nd year of Arb.
The Pirates are going to have to make some long term signings in the next year or two.
Apparently, she was the 1 and only one analytics person in Baltimore when Elias took over. That's funny. Both Elias and Mejdal make mention of the 1 and only 1 analytics person in the Orioles front office and note in light-hearted way how impossible was the job of this one person trying to analyze everything for no good reason, since no one in the organization paid any attention. Anyway, Elias and Mejdal must have mentioned her to the Astros since that is where she went.
Right now, he has 3 years and $73 mil remaining on his contract, plus the $1 mil for any trade after '22/'23, and the reality that he would not be ready until 60% of the 2024 season would already be gone? Does not really sound like a Pirate-type situation to me.
Or Clase, who MLBTR says may be available. Imagine adding a reliever like Clase to Bednar, Holderman, Moreta, Borucki, Mlod ... not only could we "shorten games" but we'd keep Bednar (and Clase) fresh for a pennant race.
It's a decent pen as it is, but we're an injury to Bednar away from a very mediocre pen at best. Give us a second closer and we're better prepared to face adversity (plus it would help if we need to move Mlod and/or Borucki to opener roles in bullpen games).
Clase might have been the best closer in baseball in 2022. Only 4 blown saves with a batting average agains of .167. In 2023 he had 14 blown saves which was the major league leader (as the next worse was 8). His batting average against sky-rocketed to a .242 against. I would be a little hesitant to trade a ton and expect his 2022 numbers.
Yes, if the value at Baseball Trade Values is close to accurate, it would probably take too much to acquire him. That contract must be very team friendly!
I think it's like 4 years for $20 million with a couple options. It had incentives as well, but it was still around or under $40 million if the contract maxed out over 6 years.
Other than skenes, i feel like the whole farm would be available for some combo of naylor, bieber or clase. I dont know if we have the MLB ready talent that they would probably want based on how the guardians operate though
Ali Sanchez, catcher, signed to a MLB contract! Talk about a surprise! So who gets traded......Delay, Hank, Endy?
Something's brewing.
With Sanders and Graves, it's getting crowded up there on Federal Street.
Do we really need 3 Assistant GMs? Can there be an actual player strategy with 4 GM's having input? Or will this just continue the most "safe" roster construction?
It's all just title inflation.
You can pack more smart people onto a management team if you just keep creating more and more pompous job titles without actually changing the overall power structure.
From my experiences in coaching: If you have 3 assistants all on the same page with defined roles all wanting to win, it works. However, if you have just one assistant that's main goal is just to move up the ladder, you have one too many assistants.
Wonder if there’s a chance they’d bump BC up to POBO and then make one of the AGM’s a GM?
Ideally they all have their own roles that they can really dive into given whatever their individual strengths are, but if not then i could definitely see how a too many cooks dynamic can develop
We hired Buffy the Vampire Slayer as Asst GM?! Finally a move I agree with!!
The signing of Nick Martinez was a good move by the Reds, but possibly costly for a guy heading into his age 34 season. Using Statcast, Martinez was a +1 RV in 2022 due mostly to his -13 RV for his 4 Seamer. So in '23 the Padres cut usage of the 4 Seamer from 26% to 13%, and upped usage of his better pitches - a Changeup that was a +6 RV in '22 and a +10 RV in '23, and increased usage of his Sinker which was a +4 in '22 and a +2 in '23. The new mix of pitches, with more emphasis on his better pitches resulted in an overall +8 RV in '23. That's what earned him the 2/$26 mil contract.
Good coaching can make that happen. Andre Jackson is a good case. He was a + 8 RV in '23 with 3 pitches, but then one dud pitch that was a -7 and dragged all the rest down. That -7 RV pitch is his Changeup and he threw it 32% of the time. He had a +1 RV Curve that he only threw 6.5% of the time, a 4 Seamer that was a + 5 RV that he threw 44.6%, and a Slider that was a +2 RV that he only threw 17% of the time. Who kept calling the Changeup? Why not more emphasis on the Curve and Slider and cut that percentage of 32% Changeup back to 20% or less. Do the Catchers call the pitches or is it the Coaches who call the majority of the pitches - I think the latter is the case.
The star though in my opinion in '23 was Carmen Mlodzinski, drafted and started 36 games and 155 IP in his first two years, and then switched to a RP in '23. He threw 36 innings and did so with 4 pitches all in the + RV column. 4 Seam was a +5 RV (49.8%), Cutter +2 RV (13.1%), Sweeper +1 RV (22.0%), and a Changeup +1 RV (14.7%). That's a total of +9 RV.
Luis Ortiz was a +8 RV with his Sinker +9 RV (28.3%), Slider -1 RV (32.7%), and Changeup 0 RV (13.8%). But then he had a 4 Seam that was a -14 RV (24.8%). Who kept calling the 4 Seam?
Are these numbers not available to our coaches? The Pirates have pitching resources - we just need to be better able to make adjustments as needed. I'll bet that opposing batters know that Ortiz will throw the 4 seam 1 of every 4 pitches, and that Jackson will throw the Changeup 1 of every 3 pitches.
I’ve wondered if the coaches when calling pitches go too heavy on a hitter’s analytics rather than the pitcher’s
Man, this is right up my alley. I am guessing most of the RVs would get better, if they threw them less while the RVs would get worse if you threw them more. Andre Jackson is a wild card because he has looked so bad and so good.
Mlodzinski, I'm not sure what to think. When I saw him in a simulated game at Pirates City in February, he seemed to have the closer mentality (high intensity), the mentality of a guy that just throws hard. By looking at the numbers you shared, it looks we should consider stretching his innings.
Agree about the closer mentality. You can't teach that. I'd prefer him in innings 7-9 as a Hold and Save guy.
Agree. By the way, we just used a combination of sabermetrics and the psychological make-up of a player to make our decision. You and I need to incorporate that into baseball. Let's call it "pyschometrics".
Your pitch assessment makes sense to why some of theses guys really did bad the second and third time through the order.
What an awesome set of info that really makes me think, good stuff! My worry about Mlod is that his K numbers were not nearly what i would hope for for a quality of backend reliever, do you think that the change in pitch mix would benefit?
I think he has that ability to assist the Pirates this year as both a SP to start 2024, and then a RP after other SP's step up from AAA or off TJ. Not sure he has that one pitch to get big numbers of K's. He was more of a K pitcher in A, but in the upper levels and in MLB last year he has been more of a K/IP guy and that's good.
Related to my reply to you below, maybe Gelles will help with this. She at least was part of a front office that oversaw major developmental successes with pitchers and surely part of that has to do with optimizing pitch usage.
Or maybe I'm just reaching for some reason to believe our pitching will be better next year as we watch interesting FA options sign with rivals.
Moreta, Hernandez, Borucki, and Jackson were our gifts from 2023. Mlodzinski is a product of our Developmental Program - that's 5 new pitchers since the start of 2023, and Celestino on a MiLB Contract was a gift that I think we will really appreciate.
I like your optimism. But, again, I think this goes to the very slowly building bubble in my vewwy, vewwy tiny brain that there are loads of pitchers available who can function but not be stars.
Honestly, I think this is the next great hidden inefficiency.
Especially since innings eaters are going for $10-12M a year this offseason, if we could find a cheap way to put this all together that would be quite the coup. Im not a believer yet, but I could see something here
This is why I keep saying... spend 20+ million on a good pitcher and get innings eaters from the system. Any of Wolf, Jackson, or Falter could be an innings eater not much worse than what you get for 10-12 million.
I am coming around to this idea
Good stuff Mel, some of the best stuff I’ve read in a while! I’m a fan of Jackson’s change so this is sobering, wonder what the split is since I feel that he threw it to both lefties and righties....
It may be a good pitch, but not as a primary pitch - 30+% usage. His splits from AAA and MLB with the Dodgers indicate he is tougher on Lefties overall. With the Pirates he was about equal for RH and LH, but had a 3/1 edge in K/BB against RH, and almost 1/1 against LH.
I didn’t have much use for Jackson except as a middle reliever, but folks here are making me think a longer look makes sense.
He, Falter, and Wolf all have some potential: each with a serviceable pitch or two and a plus pitch or even two. I think ideally long relief is where you want to slot 2 of those 3 in next year, with the possibility that they could work their way in to the rotation. In the real world, however, one or two of these guys is going to be filling the 5th starter spot and maybe the 4th as well.
With the quality of pitching in the LAD org, it is not surprising to find a kid like him that never really got into that position to impress. His performance last year in 12 appearances/7 Starts is deserving of a longer look this year.
Pitch use and sequence could unlock some hidden potential from some of these guys, thanks for the posts.
Started with the Buc's in 2009, then a rising star in the Orioles and Astro's front offices, and now to an Assistant GM back with the Pirates and closer to home. Sarah Gelles is an excellent add for a team on the rise.
She’ll now face her biggest challenge, opening Bob’s wallet.
Maybe not, her role could be (and likely will be) evaluating 1 WAR players to assist BC with his choices!
WAR h'uh
Yeah!
(What is it good for?)
Absolutely (nothin) uh-huh, uh-huh
(WAR) h'uh
Yeah!
At this point in the Pirates REBUILD, this move is earth shattering for such a conservative group. Houston, where she was for 4 years, is a good example of a team that has key bats, and three veteran Starting Pitchers - Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy - and they will be paying all three together only $22.6 mil in 2024. That's how they are able to sign a top SP like Justin Verlander for $43 mil.
We can't know if or how much Sarah had to do with the development of those three pitchers, but they were not highly ranked prospects during the start of her time with the Astros. Their kind of development, from being ranked far out of their top 10 to becoming key starters on championship teams, is exactly what we need.
I thought that I had read that she was also involved with MLB Contracts as well as development. I think Javier, 26, is under contract thru 2027. Valdez, 30, has not signed a long term contract, but is due $12.1 mil in his 3rd year of Arb according to MLBTR, Urquidy, 29, who missed much of 2023 with a shoulder issue is due about $3.5 mil in his 1st or 2nd year of Arb.
The Pirates are going to have to make some long term signings in the next year or two.
That new stadium lease in Charlotte?
Apparently, she was the 1 and only one analytics person in Baltimore when Elias took over. That's funny. Both Elias and Mejdal make mention of the 1 and only 1 analytics person in the Orioles front office and note in light-hearted way how impossible was the job of this one person trying to analyze everything for no good reason, since no one in the organization paid any attention. Anyway, Elias and Mejdal must have mentioned her to the Astros since that is where she went.
Right now, he has 3 years and $73 mil remaining on his contract, plus the $1 mil for any trade after '22/'23, and the reality that he would not be ready until 60% of the 2024 season would already be gone? Does not really sound like a Pirate-type situation to me.
Or Clase, who MLBTR says may be available. Imagine adding a reliever like Clase to Bednar, Holderman, Moreta, Borucki, Mlod ... not only could we "shorten games" but we'd keep Bednar (and Clase) fresh for a pennant race.
It's a decent pen as it is, but we're an injury to Bednar away from a very mediocre pen at best. Give us a second closer and we're better prepared to face adversity (plus it would help if we need to move Mlod and/or Borucki to opener roles in bullpen games).
Clase might have been the best closer in baseball in 2022. Only 4 blown saves with a batting average agains of .167. In 2023 he had 14 blown saves which was the major league leader (as the next worse was 8). His batting average against sky-rocketed to a .242 against. I would be a little hesitant to trade a ton and expect his 2022 numbers.
Clase would be awesome to add, but it would take a huge package to get him after signing that team friendly contract.
Yes, if the value at Baseball Trade Values is close to accurate, it would probably take too much to acquire him. That contract must be very team friendly!
I think it's like 4 years for $20 million with a couple options. It had incentives as well, but it was still around or under $40 million if the contract maxed out over 6 years.
Other than skenes, i feel like the whole farm would be available for some combo of naylor, bieber or clase. I dont know if we have the MLB ready talent that they would probably want based on how the guardians operate though