Gage Wood for Arkansas had himself a day at the college World Series. 9 inning no-hitter with 19 K's and 0 walks. He was a hit by pitch away from perfection.
Looking at Sunday's scores, a bunch of 2-1, 3-2 ballgames where both teams collectively are getting less than a dozen total hits. The Yankees have scored 5 runs in their last 5 games and are in a 0-0 tie tonite in the 9th inning. So it's not just the Pirates that can't hit.
The Cubs are in a similar drought covering 20 games now. Takeaway: the pitching is just too damn good in this era of 21st century pitching labs, training and metrics. I never thought we'd be as boring as soccer (for the average fan), but we're getting closer and closer.
One radical change would be to move the rubber back 6 -12" toward 2nd base. The problem is it would cause all pitches except FB to have to be re-worked as to the horizontal and vertical trajectories so as to cross the plate where the pitchers desire.
For sure. I think I heard since the mound was established at 60'6", the average male height is now 6 inches greater. If that is all true, then proportionally the mound should be pushed back 6 feet.... so your 6 to 12 inches doesn't sound too radical. Maybe even make the diameter of the baseball a smidge larger. This might decrease velocity of pitches and the speed of the ball off the bat, which could see less pitches and more balls in play.
I always thought the simplest thing they could do is move the fences back. Pretty sure that historically they were deeper on average, although there were more quirky configurations than now.
The strikeout craziness is fueled partly by every hitter trying to hit home runs in every AB. Reward big flies less, line drives more. Forbes was a tough place for HRs, but it produced a lot of triples.
Yes, and it makes more rallies. The idiots who run baseball in the commissioner's office think fans all come to see HRs, but what makes the game exciting are rallies. Games filled with Ks and HRs are not very exciting actually. So, more hits = more rallies, which keeps people watching and excited.
Moreta reinstated and optioned, Bart up and Sullivan dfa’d. If he doesn’t clear waivers, they’re gonna have to acquire a depth type C unless Gutierrez is close to returning.
I suspect there's nobody they want to cut from the bullpen. The only guy not performing well is Borucki. I'd be OK with that exchange, but he has no options and I guess they don't want to lose him. His xFIP is actually a run and a half below his ERA, but it's awfully hard to use a guy who can't pitch to RH hitters.
KG (duh) and Esmerlyn Valdez in the BA hot sheet this week. On Valdez:
"Valdez is beginning to see the payoff from his offseason swing adjustments—which lowered his attack angle and kept his barrel in the zone longer—and it’s led to a noticeably improved contact rate. Look no further than his performance this past week to back it up. While swing-and-miss remains part of his game, the upward trend is encouraging. Valdez boasts elite raw power and exceptional exit velocities. His one defect is his limited defensive value, as he profiles best as a bat-first corner outfielder or first baseman."
When your roster is just a random collection of failures, it's all "oddities." The randomness of it stems from the complete absence of any coherent management.
The Mitch Keller discussion reminds me of another famous BIll James adage from the 80s Baseball Abstracts that has stood the test of time: fans of bad teams tend to focus on the weaknesses of their best players.
One note / opinion that DOES NOT change any of this fun dialog. Using where a prospect sits on a teams top 20 or top whatever is not a good yardstick for comparison vs. the more comparable 55 level prospect etc. One teams #6-10 could be another teams #16-20. A little bit of nit picking and it only bothers me when the national reporters (hello Jim Bowden) use that criteria.
Good exercise. To elaborate a bit on it -- in trades like this quantity comes into play due to the reluctance to trade top prospects -- I might go like:
Heaney = BC
Keller = BB or BBC
Falter = BB or BBC (cheap control)
Santana and Bednar = B
Cutch = ?? (from the Pgh standpoint, you can't trade Cutch unless the return makes it look like you got something, which basically means you can't trade him)
IKF = C (IKF has some value as a UT guy. Right now he's miscast as a starting SS)
Frazier = yeah, D
Ferguson = C, lefty
Borucki = D, totally helpless against RH hitters
Pham = Haha, maybe the Padres would sneak us a D if we could trade him to the Giants.
A guy like Keller is definitely valuable enough to pull a Top 100-quality prospect. Whether that's a guy producing in AA/AAA and ready to contribute to a big club vs a kid in A-ball, I think, will play a big role in a team's decision making.
Funny thing, it’s been so long since the Pirates were a serious participant in any aspect of the MLB talent pool that I’m not sure what a real trade looks like any more.
Keller is definitely an A and then some, I think we are undervaluing him generally here. I also think Bednar and Santana might sneaky get us an A. Or at least a BB/BC. Jason Adam last year brought back 3 prospects and while he has one extra year of control it shows the values of controlled back end arms
Keller putting together a full season with a strong second half would go a long way.
He *does* only have that one 3-WAR season on his belt, and is essentially on the exact contract Jameson Taillon got from the Cubs after a couple 2ish WAR years with the Yanks. Keller adding another 3+ WAR year with a good second half would go a long way.
That looks pretty good, but I think you overestimate Heaney's value. Starting pitchers in whom a manager can have confidence to pitch a high-leverage playoff game have good value at the deadline. 5th or 4th starter types don't have nearly so much value. Bednar and Santana both have more value than Heaney, because a team would have confidence in them working leverage innings in the playoffs. Falter has much more value than Heaney, because Falter has years of control remaining, whereas Heaney is a rental.
To take just one example, Ari right now is 3.5 out of a WC. They have two starters with ERAs over 5 and another over 6. Heaney would have a lot of value to them.
If you made the trade now, Heaney would add some value to the D-backs. By the trade deadline, he would be in line to make only 7 or 8 starts. Would the D-backs be willing to move now? They have a lot of players on expiring deals, and with Burnes out, their season might be doomed. They might be better off selling at the deadline. That would be on their GM to make a tough call. He is in probably the toughest spot of all major-league GMs in terms of the difficulty of decisions that he has to make, starting right now.
TBH, I don't think the Pirates should do much of anything at this point. 1) Cherington's trade record is highly subpar 2) I would like to see them win some games and establish some kind of record of trying to win 3) The only guys it makes sense to move right now are Heaney and IKF, and I am not sure that it is worth it to move them, since the market is limited to teams that need pitching or a utility IFer/SS and are likely to make the postseason. I would give Chandler and Ovieda more time and not worry so much about maximizing the value of Heaney by trading him now. In the case of IKF, the Pirates have no one to replace him at SS, except Triolo. This might be OK, if they use the remainder of the season to see if Triolo has fixed his issues and is part of the future or not. Unfortunately, this is the Pirates, so if they trade IKF, they will probably do something stupid at SS.
Good list. I'd bump Ferguson up a notch as lefty relievers who can also get righties out have value, and he's been worth about the same fWAR as Heaney in about 50 fewer innings. And IKF probably has more value than Cutch because he can play defense, so maybe a C+ prospect. I can't see Borucki having any value, so drop him down to Pham-level.
In any case, package Keller and Bednar or Santana and that should get us an A level prospect. But I wouldn't be crazy about trading Keller, especially if Cherington is doing the trading.
That A category probably should be broken up into A+ for top 20 (Bubba), A for 21-50 (KG), and A- for 51-100 (Termarr). If you do that, then I think A- for Keller seems fair.
I think the that is a pretty good list if we had to make a trade today. I think the next few weeks Keller, Heaney and Bednar could change quite a bit for the better or worse.
-Three good games in a row by Keller, I think teams would be fighting over Keller. He is a former all-star with no run support. He goes deep in games as he is 4th in the league in innings. His contract is not bad. On the other hand, if he loses his next 3 games, no one wants a 1 and 12 pitcher.
-If the Pirates are serious about trading Bednar, they should only put him in save situations and hope he rattles off several in a row.
-Heaney is currently a solid 4 or 5 starter for a team that wants to go deep in the play-offs with his 1.11 whip. If he has a few bad outings, I think his stock would drop considerably.
Teams are smart enough now to look past Keller’s record and focus on how he’s pitching. Keller is by far their most valuable asset: he’s a solid #3 starter; he’s durable; he eats up innings: and he’s not a rental. I don’t think he and Heaney are in the same level in terms of value.
I agree that Keller is a valuable player but he failed to shut down the Cubs after the Pirates put up a 2 spot.(which for them is a bunch). They needed him to come out strong but he failed to put up a zero. Listen I know he's good but don't think they'll get someone in a trade that's going to excite us much.
Sorry, but that’s silly. Are you saying if he had thrown a zero in the first that the pathetic Pirate offense would have been inspired to score more runs? I don’t think baseball works that way. De facto you’re asking him to shut out the Cubs at Wrigley. I think that’s unreasonable.
For any contender Keller’s effort on Sunday would have netted a victory.
Keller has value. But with salaries of $16M $18M $20M the next 3 years I dont think you get an A prospect. Santana’s salary is $1.4M. Bednar is $5.9M. Each has 1 more year of control. Cutch, IKF, and maybe Frazier could fill a role on a contending team.
I would not trade Hayes or Reynolds unless I got real value. They only need to produce 1 and 2 WAR to justify their current contracts.
I disagree on Keller. His salary is worth about 50% of his expected value in WAR. Maybe even less. On a team that plays to win, he is very valuable. If he is your #3 you have a strong rotation. He should bring back an A.
In a bit of an imaginary land what if, could the Pirates have topped San Fran's offer and traded for Devers from Boston with this package:
Heaney
Harrington
Hayes
Matoma
Taylor
Obviously there are a lot of different packages you could put together but this one is better then the haul received from San Fran. And getting a legit middle of the order bat who is still in his prime, and signed long-term at a not extreme number would have been potentially franchise altering.
No like this or anything like this would ever happen but in a different world...
Harrison was a top 25 prospect in all of baseball in 2024 and Tibbs was selected 13th last year. None of the guys you list come with that kind of pedigree. Plus, if they plan to keep Bregman, they have no need for Hayes whose value (sadly) comes entirely from his glove.
I think a comparable deal would need to build around our young pitching and include maybe two out of Burrows, Ashcraft, and Mlodzinski, along with Harrington or possibly Jones if the Red Sox wanted to take the long view.
We may have enough pitching that we could have made a deal for Devers but as you point out, it's all moot because there is no way Nutting approves taking on a contract like Devers' no matter how valuable the player is.
The stars aligned perfectly for this deal, in that SF missed on the high priced FA's this offseason. And that Devers was shown the door in Boston for not cooperating in giving up 3rd base to Bregman and refusing to go to 1st base with Casas injury. And then there's the deferred money until 2043. As you noted, Bob would not play in this sandbox ever in a million years.
That probably doesn’t get it done. It’s not better than what Boston received (and what they received ain’t great).
If you’re looking for comparables between the two deals, Hayes (in for Hicks) makes sense from a salary dump standpoint. As does Matoma (in for Bello) as the lottery ticket. But to beat the Harrison/Mr. Tibbs combo, you’re probably looking at…Mitch and Termarr, maybe. Not the Heaney/Harrington/Taylor platter. And even that doesn’t really work, because with Mitch and Hayes in the deal, the Sox don’t really save any dough. The only real change that would work for them is a healthy Jared Jones.
So a deal to possibly beat it is: healthy Jones, Hayes, Termarr, Matoma.
I see Heaney offering a lot more starting pitching value right now then Hicks. Termarr in place of Taylor should be sufficient to equal out the return from San Fran.
True, but Heaney is an FA after this year and he’s…kind of a back end guy anyway. He’d help, but not much. Sounds like they’re throwing Hicks into the pen, as he was pretty miscast as a starter.
Jun-Seok Shim, who the Pirates traded for Bryan de la Cruz last year, is on MIA’s rookie league team. He has 6 appearances, all in relief with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.941 WHIP. He is 21 years old.
He gave up 4 earned runs in just 0.2 innings in his second outing but no earned runs and only 2 hits (but 5 walks) in his other 5 outings (5 innings). It's not looking good for him, but still too soon to write him off. Maybe he just needs to get healthy but it's also a good example why trading pitching prospects, especially those far from the majors, is often a good strategy. But...
That trade highlights just how poor our front office is at identifying hitting talent. BDLC is back in the minors and struggling with a .640 OPS and striking out in 29% of his PAs. Our big addition at the deadline. No wonder the team played like they didn't care in August and September--I'm sure that they did care, but when your FO makes such a half-hearted attempt to add, they could almost be forgiven if they lost some of their fight.
BDLC was the only OF option they could afford. They were hoping he'd run into a heater for a couple of months. Didn't happen. Didn't give up anything either. I'd rather see this, than doing nothing.
One of the more disappointing project development stories in recent years. His career highlight wasvstriking out eight in four innings in his debut. It’s been downhill ever since.
The Pirates pitched and played competitively on the road against one of the best teams in the NL, but came away with a 1-3 record for the 4 game series. They are a lot better now than when they started the season, but the hitting needs to be a lot better than what it is presently.
The Giants just proved that teams do not have to wait until the trade deadline to stand in line with every other contender trying to get what they need to compete. Another solid Quality Start by Mitch Keller, who is now at 1.9 fWAR (about $15 mil in Value), which is just about his salary for the year. Thanks to Fangraphs for the nice article about Keller last week.
Too early to promote Konnor Griffin, 19 and Esmerlyn Valdez, 21 to AA? Sure, just a very complimentary comment about how positively Griffin has made the transition from A to A+. But, Valdez is putting up some very excellent numbers at A+. Slash at A in 2024 as a 20 year old 226/352/464/815 and at A+ as a 21 year old 310/396/591/987. A 30.67% K Rate at A has dropped to 23.7% at A+. In 358 AB in A he posted EBH of 17 doubles, 1 triple, 22 HR, and at A+ in only 232 AB the EBH are 15 doubles, 1 triple, 16 HR.
Alfonzo and Valdez for sure. Rivas is already in his age 23 season with Griffin already at the same level, so he needs to be in AA. Do they keep him at 3B and Brannigan at SS or rotate them? Alfonzo to AA, Plaz to A+ - two excellent young Catchers, with Ramirez right behind them.
Pirates need to get Griffin out of Greensboro as fast as possible. I don’t want him changing his swing to sell out for homers. Been known to happen to top hitting prospects, cough, Termarr, cough.
Plus I want his starting in Pittsburgh next opening day.
I know he has always been the youngest at each level which does provide some context, but I’m concerned his average always has settled into the .230’s. We see with Griffin who also is young that doesn’t need to be the case. It seems from afar Termarr should have better results than he has had thus far.
And his plus plus speed n hustle down the line when he hits it on the ground or slow. Griffin has the perfect combination to maintain a very high babip.
I remain disappointed in Termarr. He was sold to us as a bat to ball genius and the guy struggles to hit ..230. He has good plate discipline but mediocre power and no speed. He’s not a wizard with the glove.
We have to get real. He is no longer a great prospect. I don’t think he starts on a contending team.
The whole Eastern League of AA is struggling - give you an example - TJ has hit 7 HR and that puts him tied for 17th in the EL. In OPS he is in the Top 25. That tells me the whole league is exhibiting much better pitching than hitting.
I’m not ready to downgrade him that quickly, but he definitely is not an elite prospect at this point. I am only stat scouting him thus far as I have never seen him play, other than highlights, but the averages are perplexing and concerning. I was more hopeful early in the year when he was consistently in the .270’s, but he has regressed to his usual .230’s. Given the hype I expected someone more like Jacob Wilson but he is far from that!. Yet he is just 20 and may yet have more in there, but my enthusiasm for him has waned. I notice that he also rarely has a big game. His good games usually are 1 hit, 1 walk, and that’s pretty much that. He is confounding. He still has a pretty high walk rate, his k rate is down to around 17.5% but his Babip is just .272. He seems to put the ball in play quite a bit with little to show for it. Anyone with access to more detailed stats and/or eyewitness observation care to weigh in?
For those who care to read it you can see his initial draft report which has him being compared to Wade Boggs and Vlad Guerrero to downgrades each year since.
From a baseball standpoint, Griffin is crushing it at A+ and is fielding very well at SS, which is a position of great need for the Pirates. But, less than 30 AB? You and I were on the same wavelength, but the kid I hope they move up now is Esmerlyn Valdez who continues to hit and has dropped his K % significantly at A+.
Presuming he keeps hitting somewhere around his present level I would not have him there longer than 100 plate appearances. If the league adjusts to him and challenges him then keep him there longer, otherwise get him to AA and see what happens there.
Gage Wood for Arkansas had himself a day at the college World Series. 9 inning no-hitter with 19 K's and 0 walks. He was a hit by pitch away from perfection.
https://x.com/NCAABaseball/status/1934713459930746922
The clock struck midnite for Murray State.
I'm beginning to think MLB has a real problem.
Looking at Sunday's scores, a bunch of 2-1, 3-2 ballgames where both teams collectively are getting less than a dozen total hits. The Yankees have scored 5 runs in their last 5 games and are in a 0-0 tie tonite in the 9th inning. So it's not just the Pirates that can't hit.
The Cubs are in a similar drought covering 20 games now. Takeaway: the pitching is just too damn good in this era of 21st century pitching labs, training and metrics. I never thought we'd be as boring as soccer (for the average fan), but we're getting closer and closer.
We are on the same page there. I have several radical changes I would like to see baseball put in where your average fan will disagree with.
oval baseballs like those mini footballs from back in the day
Ke'Bryan Hayes value just went up.
One radical change would be to move the rubber back 6 -12" toward 2nd base. The problem is it would cause all pitches except FB to have to be re-worked as to the horizontal and vertical trajectories so as to cross the plate where the pitchers desire.
For sure. I think I heard since the mound was established at 60'6", the average male height is now 6 inches greater. If that is all true, then proportionally the mound should be pushed back 6 feet.... so your 6 to 12 inches doesn't sound too radical. Maybe even make the diameter of the baseball a smidge larger. This might decrease velocity of pitches and the speed of the ball off the bat, which could see less pitches and more balls in play.
I always thought the simplest thing they could do is move the fences back. Pretty sure that historically they were deeper on average, although there were more quirky configurations than now.
The strikeout craziness is fueled partly by every hitter trying to hit home runs in every AB. Reward big flies less, line drives more. Forbes was a tough place for HRs, but it produced a lot of triples.
I figured deadening ball would have the same results as moving the fences back. But I guess moving the fences back would increase chances for hits.
Yes, and it makes more rallies. The idiots who run baseball in the commissioner's office think fans all come to see HRs, but what makes the game exciting are rallies. Games filled with Ks and HRs are not very exciting actually. So, more hits = more rallies, which keeps people watching and excited.
Moreta reinstated and optioned, Bart up and Sullivan dfa’d. If he doesn’t clear waivers, they’re gonna have to acquire a depth type C unless Gutierrez is close to returning.
Had they already burned Moretta’s option? If not, it seems odd to use it now when he could be added to the 26-man without much fuss.
I suspect there's nobody they want to cut from the bullpen. The only guy not performing well is Borucki. I'd be OK with that exchange, but he has no options and I guess they don't want to lose him. His xFIP is actually a run and a half below his ERA, but it's awfully hard to use a guy who can't pitch to RH hitters.
stallings still available? sources saying they´re planning on shipping Bart to the Cubs
What if the Cubs refuse delivery?
We'll just leave him on Addison and take a picture, proof of delivery!
what do yinz think the chances are of Griffin going up to #1 prospect in mlb rankings?
outliers aside and considering graduations, I think it might come down to him vs Walker Jenkins, Max Clark and Josue De Paula
maybe George Lombard Jr. for yankee hype
i think those san diego teenagers will flame out
This is strictly a guess, but I am saying he moves to #7.
50-50
could happen after bubba and roman graduate
Griffin needs some double A numbers, but he seems to be outperforming all those guys
getting Griffin to AA could be the second reason why BC saves his job
hard to argue against top 2 mlb prospect in each of the past three years
One day closer to Konnor Griffin era as a Pirate.
One day closer to Bubba Chandler era as a Pirate.
One day closer to a new GM in Pittsburgh.
#MondayMotivation
KG (duh) and Esmerlyn Valdez in the BA hot sheet this week. On Valdez:
"Valdez is beginning to see the payoff from his offseason swing adjustments—which lowered his attack angle and kept his barrel in the zone longer—and it’s led to a noticeably improved contact rate. Look no further than his performance this past week to back it up. While swing-and-miss remains part of his game, the upward trend is encouraging. Valdez boasts elite raw power and exceptional exit velocities. His one defect is his limited defensive value, as he profiles best as a bat-first corner outfielder or first baseman."
I’d take a bat-first pitcher right now…
Adonis with an RBI double in the 1st today. The FCL just can't hold this guy.
Pirate oddities...
-their hitter with the 2nd highest WAR is the fourth worst qualified hitter in all of baseball, Kebryan Hayes (0.7 WAR, 59 wRC+)
-their hitter with the 3rd highest WAR is a 38 yo DH
Denzel Clarke is the Hayes of CF'ers.
When your roster is just a random collection of failures, it's all "oddities." The randomness of it stems from the complete absence of any coherent management.
Hodgepodge of nothingness?
The Mitch Keller discussion reminds me of another famous BIll James adage from the 80s Baseball Abstracts that has stood the test of time: fans of bad teams tend to focus on the weaknesses of their best players.
Yeah, like, he held MLB's highest-scoring team to two runs over six innings and that was a failure.
Here’s what I think our guys could fetch in trade. First some definitions.
A prospect = a top 100 MLB prospect
B prospect = 6-12 on a team’s list
C prospect = 15-30 on a team’ list
D prospect = low level lottery ticket.
.
Heaney = B
Keller = B
Santana = B
Bednar = B-
Cutch = C
Kiner-Falefa = C-
Frazier = D
Ferguson = D
Borucki = D
Pham = F
One note / opinion that DOES NOT change any of this fun dialog. Using where a prospect sits on a teams top 20 or top whatever is not a good yardstick for comparison vs. the more comparable 55 level prospect etc. One teams #6-10 could be another teams #16-20. A little bit of nit picking and it only bothers me when the national reporters (hello Jim Bowden) use that criteria.
Good exercise. To elaborate a bit on it -- in trades like this quantity comes into play due to the reluctance to trade top prospects -- I might go like:
Heaney = BC
Keller = BB or BBC
Falter = BB or BBC (cheap control)
Santana and Bednar = B
Cutch = ?? (from the Pgh standpoint, you can't trade Cutch unless the return makes it look like you got something, which basically means you can't trade him)
IKF = C (IKF has some value as a UT guy. Right now he's miscast as a starting SS)
Frazier = yeah, D
Ferguson = C, lefty
Borucki = D, totally helpless against RH hitters
Pham = Haha, maybe the Padres would sneak us a D if we could trade him to the Giants.
Good point. Risk/level also plays a huge roll.
A guy like Keller is definitely valuable enough to pull a Top 100-quality prospect. Whether that's a guy producing in AA/AAA and ready to contribute to a big club vs a kid in A-ball, I think, will play a big role in a team's decision making.
How about a little of Alex Freeland, and a dash of Eduardo Quintero?
Just like G Cole to Houston. We got little
Certainly a lot of moving parts.
Funny thing, it’s been so long since the Pirates were a serious participant in any aspect of the MLB talent pool that I’m not sure what a real trade looks like any more.
Keller is definitely an A and then some, I think we are undervaluing him generally here. I also think Bednar and Santana might sneaky get us an A. Or at least a BB/BC. Jason Adam last year brought back 3 prospects and while he has one extra year of control it shows the values of controlled back end arms
Keller putting together a full season with a strong second half would go a long way.
He *does* only have that one 3-WAR season on his belt, and is essentially on the exact contract Jameson Taillon got from the Cubs after a couple 2ish WAR years with the Yanks. Keller adding another 3+ WAR year with a good second half would go a long way.
That looks pretty good, but I think you overestimate Heaney's value. Starting pitchers in whom a manager can have confidence to pitch a high-leverage playoff game have good value at the deadline. 5th or 4th starter types don't have nearly so much value. Bednar and Santana both have more value than Heaney, because a team would have confidence in them working leverage innings in the playoffs. Falter has much more value than Heaney, because Falter has years of control remaining, whereas Heaney is a rental.
To take just one example, Ari right now is 3.5 out of a WC. They have two starters with ERAs over 5 and another over 6. Heaney would have a lot of value to them.
If you made the trade now, Heaney would add some value to the D-backs. By the trade deadline, he would be in line to make only 7 or 8 starts. Would the D-backs be willing to move now? They have a lot of players on expiring deals, and with Burnes out, their season might be doomed. They might be better off selling at the deadline. That would be on their GM to make a tough call. He is in probably the toughest spot of all major-league GMs in terms of the difficulty of decisions that he has to make, starting right now.
Dunno about Ari, but the Pirates absolutely should be looking to move now. But need a real GM.
TBH, I don't think the Pirates should do much of anything at this point. 1) Cherington's trade record is highly subpar 2) I would like to see them win some games and establish some kind of record of trying to win 3) The only guys it makes sense to move right now are Heaney and IKF, and I am not sure that it is worth it to move them, since the market is limited to teams that need pitching or a utility IFer/SS and are likely to make the postseason. I would give Chandler and Ovieda more time and not worry so much about maximizing the value of Heaney by trading him now. In the case of IKF, the Pirates have no one to replace him at SS, except Triolo. This might be OK, if they use the remainder of the season to see if Triolo has fixed his issues and is part of the future or not. Unfortunately, this is the Pirates, so if they trade IKF, they will probably do something stupid at SS.
If Cherington is pulling the trigger, Falter is more likely to net us a BDLC.
No way, falter has cheap years of control as, at worst, an innings eater. Thats a real return
Agree. Just a lousy attempt at a joke off WTM’s use of multiple letters!
Falter should/would bring more. I, actually, would hold onto him given his performance and durability.
Ohhhhh lol completely over my head haha
Good list. I'd bump Ferguson up a notch as lefty relievers who can also get righties out have value, and he's been worth about the same fWAR as Heaney in about 50 fewer innings. And IKF probably has more value than Cutch because he can play defense, so maybe a C+ prospect. I can't see Borucki having any value, so drop him down to Pham-level.
In any case, package Keller and Bednar or Santana and that should get us an A level prospect. But I wouldn't be crazy about trading Keller, especially if Cherington is doing the trading.
Wow . I’d have thought Keller was good for one A prospect
I just look at this way. If u were say the red sox or cubs, would u trade the equivalent of bubba or konnor or termarr for Keller? I wouldnt.
That A category probably should be broken up into A+ for top 20 (Bubba), A for 21-50 (KG), and A- for 51-100 (Termarr). If you do that, then I think A- for Keller seems fair.
I think Keller is definitely worth a Harrington and termarr to a contending team and probably then some
Agree . Bubba is the #2 prospect in baseball.
Agreed I think Keller is worth at least an A- 51 to 100
I think the that is a pretty good list if we had to make a trade today. I think the next few weeks Keller, Heaney and Bednar could change quite a bit for the better or worse.
-Three good games in a row by Keller, I think teams would be fighting over Keller. He is a former all-star with no run support. He goes deep in games as he is 4th in the league in innings. His contract is not bad. On the other hand, if he loses his next 3 games, no one wants a 1 and 12 pitcher.
-If the Pirates are serious about trading Bednar, they should only put him in save situations and hope he rattles off several in a row.
-Heaney is currently a solid 4 or 5 starter for a team that wants to go deep in the play-offs with his 1.11 whip. If he has a few bad outings, I think his stock would drop considerably.
(Fun list Hoptown)
Teams are smart enough now to look past Keller’s record and focus on how he’s pitching. Keller is by far their most valuable asset: he’s a solid #3 starter; he’s durable; he eats up innings: and he’s not a rental. I don’t think he and Heaney are in the same level in terms of value.
I agree that Keller is a valuable player but he failed to shut down the Cubs after the Pirates put up a 2 spot.(which for them is a bunch). They needed him to come out strong but he failed to put up a zero. Listen I know he's good but don't think they'll get someone in a trade that's going to excite us much.
He allowed two runs to the best offense in baseball. He did his job.
They needed a shutdown inning and he didn't deliver it.
You may be the first person to ever say a SP needed to have a shutdown 1st inning.
Sorry, but that’s silly. Are you saying if he had thrown a zero in the first that the pathetic Pirate offense would have been inspired to score more runs? I don’t think baseball works that way. De facto you’re asking him to shut out the Cubs at Wrigley. I think that’s unreasonable.
For any contender Keller’s effort on Sunday would have netted a victory.
Keller has value. But with salaries of $16M $18M $20M the next 3 years I dont think you get an A prospect. Santana’s salary is $1.4M. Bednar is $5.9M. Each has 1 more year of control. Cutch, IKF, and maybe Frazier could fill a role on a contending team.
I would not trade Hayes or Reynolds unless I got real value. They only need to produce 1 and 2 WAR to justify their current contracts.
Charlie morton got $15M this year... I think Keller is underpriced by far and those figures are an asset to his value
Nuttin could always pick up part of that money in a trade. You know, if this was a major league franchise.
I figure Hayes is just a salary dump, no?
I disagree on Keller. His salary is worth about 50% of his expected value in WAR. Maybe even less. On a team that plays to win, he is very valuable. If he is your #3 you have a strong rotation. He should bring back an A.
Possible. But I don’t think teams will pay that. Maybe an A-/B+. Someone just off the top 100 lists like a Barco or Ashcraft or Sterling.
If teams are bidding on him, I think you need to walk away with an A prospect. Can BC do that? I don’t know.
In a bit of an imaginary land what if, could the Pirates have topped San Fran's offer and traded for Devers from Boston with this package:
Heaney
Harrington
Hayes
Matoma
Taylor
Obviously there are a lot of different packages you could put together but this one is better then the haul received from San Fran. And getting a legit middle of the order bat who is still in his prime, and signed long-term at a not extreme number would have been potentially franchise altering.
No like this or anything like this would ever happen but in a different world...
Harrison was a top 25 prospect in all of baseball in 2024 and Tibbs was selected 13th last year. None of the guys you list come with that kind of pedigree. Plus, if they plan to keep Bregman, they have no need for Hayes whose value (sadly) comes entirely from his glove.
I think a comparable deal would need to build around our young pitching and include maybe two out of Burrows, Ashcraft, and Mlodzinski, along with Harrington or possibly Jones if the Red Sox wanted to take the long view.
We may have enough pitching that we could have made a deal for Devers but as you point out, it's all moot because there is no way Nutting approves taking on a contract like Devers' no matter how valuable the player is.
The stars aligned perfectly for this deal, in that SF missed on the high priced FA's this offseason. And that Devers was shown the door in Boston for not cooperating in giving up 3rd base to Bregman and refusing to go to 1st base with Casas injury. And then there's the deferred money until 2043. As you noted, Bob would not play in this sandbox ever in a million years.
That probably doesn’t get it done. It’s not better than what Boston received (and what they received ain’t great).
If you’re looking for comparables between the two deals, Hayes (in for Hicks) makes sense from a salary dump standpoint. As does Matoma (in for Bello) as the lottery ticket. But to beat the Harrison/Mr. Tibbs combo, you’re probably looking at…Mitch and Termarr, maybe. Not the Heaney/Harrington/Taylor platter. And even that doesn’t really work, because with Mitch and Hayes in the deal, the Sox don’t really save any dough. The only real change that would work for them is a healthy Jared Jones.
So a deal to possibly beat it is: healthy Jones, Hayes, Termarr, Matoma.
I see Heaney offering a lot more starting pitching value right now then Hicks. Termarr in place of Taylor should be sufficient to equal out the return from San Fran.
True, but Heaney is an FA after this year and he’s…kind of a back end guy anyway. He’d help, but not much. Sounds like they’re throwing Hicks into the pen, as he was pretty miscast as a starter.
If that is their plan then maybe Bednar in place of Heaney
That’s an option too.
Jun-Seok Shim, who the Pirates traded for Bryan de la Cruz last year, is on MIA’s rookie league team. He has 6 appearances, all in relief with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.941 WHIP. He is 21 years old.
He gave up 4 earned runs in just 0.2 innings in his second outing but no earned runs and only 2 hits (but 5 walks) in his other 5 outings (5 innings). It's not looking good for him, but still too soon to write him off. Maybe he just needs to get healthy but it's also a good example why trading pitching prospects, especially those far from the majors, is often a good strategy. But...
That trade highlights just how poor our front office is at identifying hitting talent. BDLC is back in the minors and struggling with a .640 OPS and striking out in 29% of his PAs. Our big addition at the deadline. No wonder the team played like they didn't care in August and September--I'm sure that they did care, but when your FO makes such a half-hearted attempt to add, they could almost be forgiven if they lost some of their fight.
BDLC was the only OF option they could afford. They were hoping he'd run into a heater for a couple of months. Didn't happen. Didn't give up anything either. I'd rather see this, than doing nothing.
Bingo. It amazes me when people ignore this.
One of the more disappointing project development stories in recent years. His career highlight wasvstriking out eight in four innings in his debut. It’s been downhill ever since.
About to jump on NS9 to talk some prospects, for those who are up and able to tune in.
The Pirates pitched and played competitively on the road against one of the best teams in the NL, but came away with a 1-3 record for the 4 game series. They are a lot better now than when they started the season, but the hitting needs to be a lot better than what it is presently.
The Giants just proved that teams do not have to wait until the trade deadline to stand in line with every other contender trying to get what they need to compete. Another solid Quality Start by Mitch Keller, who is now at 1.9 fWAR (about $15 mil in Value), which is just about his salary for the year. Thanks to Fangraphs for the nice article about Keller last week.
Too early to promote Konnor Griffin, 19 and Esmerlyn Valdez, 21 to AA? Sure, just a very complimentary comment about how positively Griffin has made the transition from A to A+. But, Valdez is putting up some very excellent numbers at A+. Slash at A in 2024 as a 20 year old 226/352/464/815 and at A+ as a 21 year old 310/396/591/987. A 30.67% K Rate at A has dropped to 23.7% at A+. In 358 AB in A he posted EBH of 17 doubles, 1 triple, 22 HR, and at A+ in only 232 AB the EBH are 15 doubles, 1 triple, 16 HR.
Valdez, Rivas, and Alfonzo would all be due for a month in Altoona before the end of the year in my book.
Alfonzo and Valdez for sure. Rivas is already in his age 23 season with Griffin already at the same level, so he needs to be in AA. Do they keep him at 3B and Brannigan at SS or rotate them? Alfonzo to AA, Plaz to A+ - two excellent young Catchers, with Ramirez right behind them.
Brannigan ends up the roamer, for me. Rivas can really pick it up the middle.
Pirates need to get Griffin out of Greensboro as fast as possible. I don’t want him changing his swing to sell out for homers. Been known to happen to top hitting prospects, cough, Termarr, cough.
Plus I want his starting in Pittsburgh next opening day.
Is that really what some believe is Termarr’s issue?
I know he has always been the youngest at each level which does provide some context, but I’m concerned his average always has settled into the .230’s. We see with Griffin who also is young that doesn’t need to be the case. It seems from afar Termarr should have better results than he has had thus far.
They probably couldn’t be more opposite.
Griffin hits the ball so damn hard that he's a BABIP monster in the lower levels thus far, i think that's the primary difference between the two.
And his plus plus speed n hustle down the line when he hits it on the ground or slow. Griffin has the perfect combination to maintain a very high babip.
I remain disappointed in Termarr. He was sold to us as a bat to ball genius and the guy struggles to hit ..230. He has good plate discipline but mediocre power and no speed. He’s not a wizard with the glove.
We have to get real. He is no longer a great prospect. I don’t think he starts on a contending team.
The whole Eastern League of AA is struggling - give you an example - TJ has hit 7 HR and that puts him tied for 17th in the EL. In OPS he is in the Top 25. That tells me the whole league is exhibiting much better pitching than hitting.
I’m not ready to downgrade him that quickly, but he definitely is not an elite prospect at this point. I am only stat scouting him thus far as I have never seen him play, other than highlights, but the averages are perplexing and concerning. I was more hopeful early in the year when he was consistently in the .270’s, but he has regressed to his usual .230’s. Given the hype I expected someone more like Jacob Wilson but he is far from that!. Yet he is just 20 and may yet have more in there, but my enthusiasm for him has waned. I notice that he also rarely has a big game. His good games usually are 1 hit, 1 walk, and that’s pretty much that. He is confounding. He still has a pretty high walk rate, his k rate is down to around 17.5% but his Babip is just .272. He seems to put the ball in play quite a bit with little to show for it. Anyone with access to more detailed stats and/or eyewitness observation care to weigh in?
For those who care to read it you can see his initial draft report which has him being compared to Wade Boggs and Vlad Guerrero to downgrades each year since.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/termarr-johnson-702261?stats=career-r-hitting-milb
Nothing like some grossly irresponsible name dropping by a scout!
From a baseball standpoint, Griffin is crushing it at A+ and is fielding very well at SS, which is a position of great need for the Pirates. But, less than 30 AB? You and I were on the same wavelength, but the kid I hope they move up now is Esmerlyn Valdez who continues to hit and has dropped his K % significantly at A+.
Presuming he keeps hitting somewhere around his present level I would not have him there longer than 100 plate appearances. If the league adjusts to him and challenges him then keep him there longer, otherwise get him to AA and see what happens there.
Why not starting in Pittsburgh this October?
They don’t play baseball in October in Pittsburgh.