Don't have the expertise to speak to the specific record needed, but the unfortunate truth is that we've been either meh or bad against the teams in front of us for the wildcard spots (Braves, Mets, Cards, DBacks) with San Diego a huge looming TBD.
It's looking like 87-88 wins is going to win the last wildcard. 33 gets us to 88. Our playoff odds have dropped from 17%+ just before the trade deadline to 10.6 right now unfortunately. Guys are making it tough on themselves right now.
The way he hit showed high IQ baseball last night not trying to kill every ball over the fence. Stealing second last night avoided a game ending double play on the next batter. His throws to first this year have been much better and shows that he is working. Most of his mistakes come from him trying to do too much.
Let's face it. Cruz is Cruz. Enjoy the good and shake your head at the bad.
The point is- He can make every play on the field. He is very talented. He doesn’t have enough baseball IQ to make the right play. He makes terrible decisions all the time. Him not swinging for the fence on two strikes is high IQ? Is this little league? Him stealing second base? Find it hard to believe the first base coach didn’t tell him to swipe the bag or got a steal sign from the third base coach.
When the ball is live he makes below average decisions. Facts are facts.
I believe players with a very high skill level tend to attemp the improbable. Some succeed often -- Michael Jordan. Most should stick to the best option play available to them.
Many of those best athletes are good because of their confidence that they think they can do just about anything. In their mind, what we know is improbable, they don't think is improbable at all. I've seen it coaching basketball multiple times. The hard part is convincing them what the best possible option is without killing what makes them good to begin with.
I'd rather he were traded. He's an impossibly frustrating player to watch. Hopefully they have a "you're moving off SS" convo with him this offseason and if it doesn't go well they ship him out.
Probably not as dumb as a poster saying I want that idiot off the team and watch him get 5 hits, then start the next day pointing out how he shouldn't have thrown a ball that meant nothing.
We wouldn't be having this conversation of being within 3 games of first place if Cruz wasn't on the team to begin with because we wouldn't have been in contention.
Honestly I think it is just another proof point in the roller coaster he will likely be. One very good hitting game (still had an error that ended up not mattering much... but can't just be ignored) does not negate a disaster game or vice versa. I am a proponent of his importance and that overall he is a plus.. his bat can be electric something in much need. That doesn't mean I think he may not need some unique mental coaching (I personally think he cares) and at some point a position change. Net: Some people wanted to declare him the worst thing ever after his disaster game and that is tiresome and wrong but one game in the other direction does not somehow solve the issues.
Disagree with the second part as a conclusion. I've known many very bright people (in business and on playing fields) who don't process or make quick decisions well but are in fact very bright. I am not saying he is one of them but WE don't know.
You gotta take the ebb and flow and hope it evens out with maturity.
I think a lot of people forget he shattered his leg last season and got off to a rough start. That said, it’s looking like he’ll finish as a 3.5 fWAR SS. It’s been 20 years since the pirates had a SS put up that much war.
His bat seems fine as both of his full seasons (rookie and now) he seemed to incrementally get better throughout the year. His fielding is the dilemma and while Cincinnati's De La Cruz has not had as many issues as Oneill, he is also being talked about in the 'where do we play him' conversation. Maybe being tall at SS is just no the answer.
I thought he acquitted himself quite well after the first. But you can’t start the game with a little league homer followed up with back to back to back HRs.
We’re going down tonight and we’ll bring home a victory
Kinda of what I was referring to not getting locked in. When he went to backup the throw at 3rd he went between home and 3rd, totally the wrong place. Total lack of performing his responsibilities on the backup play and covering 1st.
At least he snapped out of it and gave some quality innings to salvage the bullpen the rest of the series.
I;m guessing Cruz and Ortiz didn't grow up playing baseball and learning the same way we did. These are a couple of monster athletes that were recruited by baseball because of their size and ability. Unfortunately a lot of this learning will get done by their mistakes at the major league level. If you have ever stood next to Oneil Cruz or Luis Ortiz, you would think they are about 40 years old, instead of being just 25 and 23.
Not saying they are, just their typical aggressiveness. Schanuel looks like he's finally adjusted to the mlb level, been really good since mid to late June. Hope they give Moore some more at bats in the upper levels, he doesn't have Schanuels plate discipline or zone judgement.
In their defense, doubleA is probably appropriate for Moore, as it was for Schanuel last year. They should probably give him around 250 at bats before the next promotion though.
I wish the Pirates like the Angels realized they suck at developing hitting and just drafted the most finished hitting prospects they could. Instead we get denial.
That and the total avoidance of lefthanded power bats. The Orioles made it a priority in their rebuild. At least they drafted one with power potential from the high school ranks in the 4th round.
Looking at the organizations pitching situation, as highlighted in the article, wow. Nice seat to be in.
Wondering if there is any value in running a six man rotation, or if it just unnecessarily gunks up guys’ timing and rhythm. I realize the main downside would usually be that you’re slightly cutting the innings of your top pitchers, and compounding that by trotting out a crappy sixth man every week. But what if you have that many legit guys? Would it help keep innings down a tiny bit, and maybe have all of them a bit fresher late into the season, for the playoff race and into the playoffs?
Yeah, sorry if I wasn’t real clear, but I wasn’t referring to this season. I could see a spot start or some bullpen innings for one or more of the prospects, but they are all getting up against workload issues too, and I don’t want to see them rushed. Don’t want to break what they are building arms-wise to chase this years race, and idk that it would be enough anyway.
My thinking was with respect to next season. As always, ‘the best laid plans’ and all that, but they have a chance to run out a pretty awesome rotation, and potentially six deep if they chose to. Or like you said, just spot-start guys from Indy when the schedule/usage/workload of the starting five calls for it, without a major dropoff. Not many clubs can say the same.
I agree with your last paragraph. While there is depth at the high minor league levels, I don't see any ready to help this year. And if they are needed as a starter because of injury or performance I am afraid the wild card hunt is already lost. I guess I could see a late in the season bullpen appearance if they just felt Bubba's (as an example) gas/stuff could help kind of like David Price years ago.
I don’t think a SP prospect throwing relief innings in late Aug or Sept is going to impact his development. They’re going to be worried about workload anyway.
One overlooked factor here is that the current bullpen just isn’t good enough. They’re not going to get the boost they need from Ben’s waiver-watching. Calling up a Chandler or Ashcraft would be risky, but there’d be a decent chance of getting some shutdown innings. Not gonna get that from Josh Walker. The Pirates have never learned, unlike the Rays, that if you can’t or won’t make big moves, you have to take risks.
It would be one of those 'stars align scenarios'. Just because Bubba may be electric doesn't mean he is who you want to trust in late September (I assume any callup would be brief) over even some of our questionable options in the majors. But if all of a sudden 2 or 3 relievers go down who knows. The other very real consideration is 40 man management. You bring Bubba up for 10 days you clearly are not dropping him but you take up a spot now vs. when he makes his 'real' major league appearance as a starter maybe late next year. (which makes your Ashcraft proposal more likely.. but I don't see him as electric)
My recollection is Billy Martin overworked this group of young pitchers. Not a one of them had a long and distinguished career, even though all of them had a very high ceiling.
No stat is meaningless, but no stat tells you much by itself. So the question should be what does it mean or what’s it telling you? The players currently with the highest average exit velocities are Judge, Ohtani and Cruz. Three pretty good hitters would you say even if you ignore their EV? If you look down the list, it’s not easy to find a good hitter who doesn’t have a high EV, although Bryan Reynolds isn’t in the top 75. So, do you need to know a guy’s EV to know if he’s a good hitter or not? Of course not, but it sure looks like good hitters tend to hit the ball hard most of the time.
I join those disagreeing with that take. It's simple.. the harder the ball is hit the less time to react and if hit at the right angle, the better chance of leaving the park. To me the importance is clear. Is it the end all, of course not.. over discussed.. sure.. meaningless - far from it.
Yep, agree with this. My issue with an exit velocity stat is “max exit velocity.” Isn’t that just “omg remember that one time I hammered the ball!” type of stat?
But exit velocity is a useful stat. What matters more is how it is applied (or misapplied).
That’s a pretty big exaggeration. On its own it doesn’t say much, but it is a factor in how likely a ball in play is to be a hit. Put it together with a hitters other abilities and the location of defenders and you get a full picture.
Yes, Tony Gwynn and Steven Kwan weren’t and aren’t the hardest swingers, but if they were to swing an average of 5 MPH less they would probably not be major leaguers, 5 MPH harder and they are Barry bonds, who was significantly better at hitting.
It’s a real factor, and just because the media overplays it and plasters it on the TV and you want to react against that hype, doesn’t mean it’s meaningless, let alone “the most meaningless in all of sports”. That’s just a contrary opinion for the sake of contrariness.
As for Cruz getting hits on bloopers and soft grounders, all players get their lucky days. But less so the ones who never hit the ball hard. They never get a chance. So yea, not meaningless.
I was with you until the last paragraph. It appeared to me, Cruz slowed down his swing and tried to place the ball down the third base line on his first hit of the game. The fact that he can both swing for exit velocity on some pitches and display good situational hitting last night is a positive thing.
My use of the word lucky is doing a lot of work there, and probably should not have been used alone without qualification. Yes, Cruz was not swinging for the fences on two strike counts and was considering the situation during his at bats. Agreed. That said, he has actually been doing a good job of that all season, especially versus right handlers. He really hasn’t been swinging for the fences always, yesterday wasn’t new, it was just especially successful. No one goes 5/5 without luck. No one. That’s all I meant. He could have had 2,3,4 hits and he has multiple times this year when he had just as good at bats as yesterday.
Just saying he was good yesterday but it wasn’t new, it’s just baseball. Sometimes the hits come in clusters.
You just got me thinking more on exit velocity. To be honest, I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about it. Strongly agree with you saying 1. it increases your chance of hitting it out of the park 2. it gives less reaction time, but just asking isn't is possible if guys like Kwan, Gwynn and Carew would have a worse batting average, if they hit it harder. I like to think those hitters were good at placing the ball and if they hit it harder, you would see more line outs to outfielders? Not arguing, just asking.
I’m of the opinion most hitters would benefit by swinging hard on strike 1&2, and swinging to make solid contact on strike 3. However, there are exceptions, and Cruz is definitely one. He should be swinging with controlled violence every time.
Hopefully, he can mature like Judge and control the strike zone and do damage to any strike thrown.
I choose to be encouraged by the fight the team showed last night. Have to tip my cap to Bell for hitting a HR off Chapman 103 mph outside edge fastball to tie it up.
Now it’s time to move on and let Keller and Skenes take the venom out of these Snakes’ bats and win the series.
Cruz goes 5-5 but is not on the top exit velocity list!
Need to win the first game in a 33-20 march tonight. 34-19 starts to get a bit worrisome if not.
Don't have the expertise to speak to the specific record needed, but the unfortunate truth is that we've been either meh or bad against the teams in front of us for the wildcard spots (Braves, Mets, Cards, DBacks) with San Diego a huge looming TBD.
It's looking like 87-88 wins is going to win the last wildcard. 33 gets us to 88. Our playoff odds have dropped from 17%+ just before the trade deadline to 10.6 right now unfortunately. Guys are making it tough on themselves right now.
I’ve seen you post this 58 times in the past 24 hours. WTF
I’m glad your savant math is ironclad
My God, you really think highly of yourself.
Fucking delusions of grandeur
Here you go freaking out again. Take a breath. Grab a paper bag. It's going to be ok.
Nice seeing Cruz silencing his critics with a 5-5 night. 2 runs scored & 2 rbi
Silenced his critics? LOL the first run of the game scored because of his throwing error. Cruz is an idiot on the ballfield.
The first run of the game scored because there was a triple, homer, homer, homer, single, walk. Not to mention no one was backing up that throw.
Why throw to third? Bad baseball play… Another low baseball IQ play by Cruz.
The way he hit showed high IQ baseball last night not trying to kill every ball over the fence. Stealing second last night avoided a game ending double play on the next batter. His throws to first this year have been much better and shows that he is working. Most of his mistakes come from him trying to do too much.
Let's face it. Cruz is Cruz. Enjoy the good and shake your head at the bad.
The point is- He can make every play on the field. He is very talented. He doesn’t have enough baseball IQ to make the right play. He makes terrible decisions all the time. Him not swinging for the fence on two strikes is high IQ? Is this little league? Him stealing second base? Find it hard to believe the first base coach didn’t tell him to swipe the bag or got a steal sign from the third base coach.
When the ball is live he makes below average decisions. Facts are facts.
I believe players with a very high skill level tend to attemp the improbable. Some succeed often -- Michael Jordan. Most should stick to the best option play available to them.
Many of those best athletes are good because of their confidence that they think they can do just about anything. In their mind, what we know is improbable, they don't think is improbable at all. I've seen it coaching basketball multiple times. The hard part is convincing them what the best possible option is without killing what makes them good to begin with.
I'd rather he were traded. He's an impossibly frustrating player to watch. Hopefully they have a "you're moving off SS" convo with him this offseason and if it doesn't go well they ship him out.
Throw should have never been made. Zero chance to get Carroll at 3b. A smarter player doesn't even throw.
Probably not as dumb as a poster saying I want that idiot off the team and watch him get 5 hits, then start the next day pointing out how he shouldn't have thrown a ball that meant nothing.
When we miss the playoffs by 3 games this year and Oneil Cruz has 15 errors in the next 53 games you'll probably agree with me!
We wouldn't be having this conversation of being within 3 games of first place if Cruz wasn't on the team to begin with because we wouldn't have been in contention.
Honestly I think it is just another proof point in the roller coaster he will likely be. One very good hitting game (still had an error that ended up not mattering much... but can't just be ignored) does not negate a disaster game or vice versa. I am a proponent of his importance and that overall he is a plus.. his bat can be electric something in much need. That doesn't mean I think he may not need some unique mental coaching (I personally think he cares) and at some point a position change. Net: Some people wanted to declare him the worst thing ever after his disaster game and that is tiresome and wrong but one game in the other direction does not somehow solve the issues.
He cares but he's obviously not very bright.
Disagree with the second part as a conclusion. I've known many very bright people (in business and on playing fields) who don't process or make quick decisions well but are in fact very bright. I am not saying he is one of them but WE don't know.
Ok, he doesn't have baseball intelligence. Maybe he sings arias and can do complex trigonometry at home but where we see him he's not very bright.
Yet FG rates him as a positive runner, positive defender and 12% better hitter than league average.
Your asinine takes are beyond tiresome
How you feeling today? Doing better? I know losses are really hard on you in your state.
I never said he doesn't have on the field abilities. Just that he's too mentally undisciplined to make good use of them.
You gotta take the ebb and flow and hope it evens out with maturity.
I think a lot of people forget he shattered his leg last season and got off to a rough start. That said, it’s looking like he’ll finish as a 3.5 fWAR SS. It’s been 20 years since the pirates had a SS put up that much war.
His bat seems fine as both of his full seasons (rookie and now) he seemed to incrementally get better throughout the year. His fielding is the dilemma and while Cincinnati's De La Cruz has not had as many issues as Oneill, he is also being talked about in the 'where do we play him' conversation. Maybe being tall at SS is just no the answer.
The guy has the talent to play wherever he wants. He just lacks baseball IQ. Time will tell if that can be taught to him.
112 wRC+. His bat is a little bit above average.
Ortiz went from 1.2 fWAR to 0.8 fWAR
I thought he acquitted himself quite well after the first. But you can’t start the game with a little league homer followed up with back to back to back HRs.
We’re going down tonight and we’ll bring home a victory
Not saying it would have made a difference but having that 1st pitch in the first called a ball didn't help him get locked in early.
For whatever reason he wasn’t into early. Missed backing up 3rd on the Carroll play & didn’t cover first on the hit to Rowdy.
Kinda of what I was referring to not getting locked in. When he went to backup the throw at 3rd he went between home and 3rd, totally the wrong place. Total lack of performing his responsibilities on the backup play and covering 1st.
At least he snapped out of it and gave some quality innings to salvage the bullpen the rest of the series.
I;m guessing Cruz and Ortiz didn't grow up playing baseball and learning the same way we did. These are a couple of monster athletes that were recruited by baseball because of their size and ability. Unfortunately a lot of this learning will get done by their mistakes at the major league level. If you have ever stood next to Oneil Cruz or Luis Ortiz, you would think they are about 40 years old, instead of being just 25 and 23.
And yet many other teams have large Dominican young men who don't make these mistakes as often. Hrm.
They're large young men.
Got the two guys you want taking the ball to round out this series and give us a shot at 2/3. Lets get it done yinz
The Halos being aggressive with their 1st round pick Moore, they promoted him to double A.
Not the organization to emulate though.
Not saying they are, just their typical aggressiveness. Schanuel looks like he's finally adjusted to the mlb level, been really good since mid to late June. Hope they give Moore some more at bats in the upper levels, he doesn't have Schanuels plate discipline or zone judgement.
Almost a slow pace by their standards
In their defense, doubleA is probably appropriate for Moore, as it was for Schanuel last year. They should probably give him around 250 at bats before the next promotion though.
I wish the Pirates like the Angels realized they suck at developing hitting and just drafted the most finished hitting prospects they could. Instead we get denial.
That and the total avoidance of lefthanded power bats. The Orioles made it a priority in their rebuild. At least they drafted one with power potential from the high school ranks in the 4th round.
You'd think if you played half your games in PNC Park...
Looking at the organizations pitching situation, as highlighted in the article, wow. Nice seat to be in.
Wondering if there is any value in running a six man rotation, or if it just unnecessarily gunks up guys’ timing and rhythm. I realize the main downside would usually be that you’re slightly cutting the innings of your top pitchers, and compounding that by trotting out a crappy sixth man every week. But what if you have that many legit guys? Would it help keep innings down a tiny bit, and maybe have all of them a bit fresher late into the season, for the playoff race and into the playoffs?
I’m not a fan of a set in stone 6 man. But not opposed to a pulling someone up from AAA every now and again to make a spot start to spread things out.
Issue could be, trying to make up ground in the wild card, how many rookies do u want to try to break in? Especially to actually make starts?
Yeah, sorry if I wasn’t real clear, but I wasn’t referring to this season. I could see a spot start or some bullpen innings for one or more of the prospects, but they are all getting up against workload issues too, and I don’t want to see them rushed. Don’t want to break what they are building arms-wise to chase this years race, and idk that it would be enough anyway.
My thinking was with respect to next season. As always, ‘the best laid plans’ and all that, but they have a chance to run out a pretty awesome rotation, and potentially six deep if they chose to. Or like you said, just spot-start guys from Indy when the schedule/usage/workload of the starting five calls for it, without a major dropoff. Not many clubs can say the same.
I agree with your last paragraph. While there is depth at the high minor league levels, I don't see any ready to help this year. And if they are needed as a starter because of injury or performance I am afraid the wild card hunt is already lost. I guess I could see a late in the season bullpen appearance if they just felt Bubba's (as an example) gas/stuff could help kind of like David Price years ago.
Bubba in the bullpen would be interesting. As long it doesn’t cut into any development work as a starter.
That’d be electric seeing him throwing one inning outings.
Depending on the health of Ashcraft, maybe him too. Depending on the overall health/performance of the bullpen
I don’t think a SP prospect throwing relief innings in late Aug or Sept is going to impact his development. They’re going to be worried about workload anyway.
One overlooked factor here is that the current bullpen just isn’t good enough. They’re not going to get the boost they need from Ben’s waiver-watching. Calling up a Chandler or Ashcraft would be risky, but there’d be a decent chance of getting some shutdown innings. Not gonna get that from Josh Walker. The Pirates have never learned, unlike the Rays, that if you can’t or won’t make big moves, you have to take risks.
It would be one of those 'stars align scenarios'. Just because Bubba may be electric doesn't mean he is who you want to trust in late September (I assume any callup would be brief) over even some of our questionable options in the majors. But if all of a sudden 2 or 3 relievers go down who knows. The other very real consideration is 40 man management. You bring Bubba up for 10 days you clearly are not dropping him but you take up a spot now vs. when he makes his 'real' major league appearance as a starter maybe late next year. (which makes your Ashcraft proposal more likely.. but I don't see him as electric)
1980 OAKLAND A’S STARTING ROTATION
Player W-L GS CG IP ERA
Rick Langford 19-12 33 28 290.0 3.26
Mike Norris 22-9 33 24 284.1 2.53
Matt Keough 16-13 32 20 250.0 2.92
Steve McCatty 14-14 31 11 221.2 3.86
Brian Kingman 8-20 30 10 211.1 3.83
I post this not in a response but just cant believe the innings these guys put in that year, think many broke down the following year(s)...
My recollection is Billy Martin overworked this group of young pitchers. Not a one of them had a long and distinguished career, even though all of them had a very high ceiling.
Cruz goes 5 for 5 and not in the top exit velocity list. What does that say?
That exit velocity is the most meaningless stat in all sports.
Was the stat overvalued in the game for a period? Absolutely. Overvaluing a stat doesn’t make it meaningless.
No stat is meaningless, but no stat tells you much by itself. So the question should be what does it mean or what’s it telling you? The players currently with the highest average exit velocities are Judge, Ohtani and Cruz. Three pretty good hitters would you say even if you ignore their EV? If you look down the list, it’s not easy to find a good hitter who doesn’t have a high EV, although Bryan Reynolds isn’t in the top 75. So, do you need to know a guy’s EV to know if he’s a good hitter or not? Of course not, but it sure looks like good hitters tend to hit the ball hard most of the time.
I join those disagreeing with that take. It's simple.. the harder the ball is hit the less time to react and if hit at the right angle, the better chance of leaving the park. To me the importance is clear. Is it the end all, of course not.. over discussed.. sure.. meaningless - far from it.
Sure EV shows you if a guy can hit dingers. EV + launch angle + all the quality of contact stuff like barrels show you if he will.
Yep, agree with this. My issue with an exit velocity stat is “max exit velocity.” Isn’t that just “omg remember that one time I hammered the ball!” type of stat?
But exit velocity is a useful stat. What matters more is how it is applied (or misapplied).
That’s a pretty big exaggeration. On its own it doesn’t say much, but it is a factor in how likely a ball in play is to be a hit. Put it together with a hitters other abilities and the location of defenders and you get a full picture.
Yes, Tony Gwynn and Steven Kwan weren’t and aren’t the hardest swingers, but if they were to swing an average of 5 MPH less they would probably not be major leaguers, 5 MPH harder and they are Barry bonds, who was significantly better at hitting.
It’s a real factor, and just because the media overplays it and plasters it on the TV and you want to react against that hype, doesn’t mean it’s meaningless, let alone “the most meaningless in all of sports”. That’s just a contrary opinion for the sake of contrariness.
As for Cruz getting hits on bloopers and soft grounders, all players get their lucky days. But less so the ones who never hit the ball hard. They never get a chance. So yea, not meaningless.
I was with you until the last paragraph. It appeared to me, Cruz slowed down his swing and tried to place the ball down the third base line on his first hit of the game. The fact that he can both swing for exit velocity on some pitches and display good situational hitting last night is a positive thing.
My use of the word lucky is doing a lot of work there, and probably should not have been used alone without qualification. Yes, Cruz was not swinging for the fences on two strike counts and was considering the situation during his at bats. Agreed. That said, he has actually been doing a good job of that all season, especially versus right handlers. He really hasn’t been swinging for the fences always, yesterday wasn’t new, it was just especially successful. No one goes 5/5 without luck. No one. That’s all I meant. He could have had 2,3,4 hits and he has multiple times this year when he had just as good at bats as yesterday.
Just saying he was good yesterday but it wasn’t new, it’s just baseball. Sometimes the hits come in clusters.
You just got me thinking more on exit velocity. To be honest, I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about it. Strongly agree with you saying 1. it increases your chance of hitting it out of the park 2. it gives less reaction time, but just asking isn't is possible if guys like Kwan, Gwynn and Carew would have a worse batting average, if they hit it harder. I like to think those hitters were good at placing the ball and if they hit it harder, you would see more line outs to outfielders? Not arguing, just asking.
I’m of the opinion most hitters would benefit by swinging hard on strike 1&2, and swinging to make solid contact on strike 3. However, there are exceptions, and Cruz is definitely one. He should be swinging with controlled violence every time.
Hopefully, he can mature like Judge and control the strike zone and do damage to any strike thrown.
I choose to be encouraged by the fight the team showed last night. Have to tip my cap to Bell for hitting a HR off Chapman 103 mph outside edge fastball to tie it up.
Now it’s time to move on and let Keller and Skenes take the venom out of these Snakes’ bats and win the series.
Let’s Go Bucs
How I love this game. A roller coaster last night ends in crushing defeat? Get ‘em tomorrow.