Yep, I think next year has 15 guys that would be top 10 this year, maybe more. College and Prep hitters are better at the top next year. Prep and College arms are about the same. The top of the draft next year is a combination of '23 and '24 with the top end being strong like '23 and the next tier being deep like '24.
I was looking at Reynolds statcast and what stands out for me is he's topping the ball more than normal and struggling with FBs and changes which usually isn't the case. It feels like it's mechanical and not age related regression to me. Saw this on a Royals blog discussing acquiring Reynolds:
>Ok, stop me if you've heard this one.
A really solid hitter, known more for amazing line drive power and pitch selection adds to his swing speed in the offseason and then begins topping the ball and smacking a lot more ground balls than he should.
His numbers crater and everyone is screaming about how bad he is and if his club should move on.
Yes I'm talking about Vinnie...but that could just as easily describe Reynolds.
His xAVG, xSLG, XWOBA are all in line with his last 3 years, it's just his actual wOBA that has cratered.
There's 2 factors likely causing it and I'd bet they're related.
His swing speed, exit velocity and hard hit % are all career highs. His launch angle is the lowest its been.
This has given him more barrels (good!) but also way more ground balls (bad!). Especially to his pull side where it looks like he's suddenly converting a bunch of line drives instead into ground balls.
So I don't see a player in regression, I see a player with a slight mechanical flaw in his swing. One that, if fixed, could actually result in a batter taking a step above his career numbers. Even better, the Royals already have a guy on the roster who has fixed (or adapted) to exactly this type of issue just this season.
Plus I see no reason to assume that acquiring Reynolds would bump Cags anywhere. Reynolds would move to LF or DH occasionally while Cags stays in RF. I've also said before, that I think that Reynolds defense could actually see some improvement and his lackluster numbers are due to technique not ability.
And if that's the case, then Reynolds is a cost controlled ~3WAR player potentially available for cheap.
Well, _I_ think that's likely and reportedly so do many others across the league given mentions in the media to include the Ke Hayes/Nunnallygate Athletic piece from a few years back but we'll never truly know from the outside, I suppose. The results sure suggest it's a terribly run team.
I knew Hunter Barco was good but just looked up his career numbers. 3 seasons. 43 G. 40 GS. 153 IP. 105 H. 60 BB. 196 K. 2.76 ERA. 1.05 WHIP. .196 AVG.
By season’s end he will basically have 2/3 of a season at each ML affiliate. Will they bring him up later this year? Will they let him start next season in the bigs?
We're more than just a baseball team. We're a fan and family experience that the whole region can love. We have chipped ham sandwiches at the ballpark and we bronzed the Bucco Bricks! Check out our fireworks and pup nights!
Following a rule of Pirates’ team (probably all bad teams): anything good (like a 6 game win streak) will be followed by something equally bad or worse.
Not even close, one of the few players in this draft class that has something special his fast ball is plus plus and could be in a major league bullpen after he signs. I like him more than Arnold and have him third behind Witherspoon and Kade.
According to BA, analysts like his secondary stuff better than scouts. Probably makes him a target for Birdbrain's Laptop Armada. High effort delivery, which is especially ominous.
Speaking of the laptop armada, what justifies Dan Fox being retained for all these years? When was the last time we were seen as being ahead of the curve in analytics? Just no accountability from Williams to Cherington to Cherington's many VPs.
It’s the battle of the leading draft experts, as Law says the Pirates are going college and BA and MLB Pipeline say they’re going high school. In Law’s mock, Hernandez, Willits, and Arquette are all off the board. He says that many teams have Willits #1 overall on their boards, so it looks very unlikely that Willits will make it to the Pirates.
Historically, the guy with the best overall accuracy on mock drafts is Jim Callis, long with BA and now with Pipeline. He’s got a mock coming out this evening. Let’s see what he says.
FG also has one coming out today, supposedly (Longenhagen is having trouble keeping up which is somewhat understandable given the depth he tries to provide).
Thanks for the heads up. Again, I’m a big Callis believer. He’s been doing this for so long, he has great sources, and in an endeavor in which 40-50% accuracy is outstanding, he has the best track record.
Could have been a tossup between Borucki and Moreta for the Top Pitcher - Borucki 1 IP, 2 K and Moreta 1 IP, 1 H, 3 K. Throw Sanders in and the 3 of them combined for 3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K - very efficient late inning RP.
Maybe Nutting has the strange, arrogant idea that by tanking with Cherington he can make a stronger case for small market teams in the next CBA as if the players and other owners won't notice the sustained success in Milwaukee and Tampa and the regular competitive teams in Cincy, Cleveland, and KC.
I know all about Gorski's strike outs and games he looked over-matched, but not happy seeing him go. With his power, good baserunning and arm, he had a skill set that seemed lacking in this organization. I wish we could have found a way to keep him. He was one of the good guys I got to briefly meet in Indy and spring training. I will always remember his first at bat with the Pirates.
Good point. I think BC wants him, but not as a part of the 40. This gives him a chance to get picked up by a team where his RH power can mean a helluva lot more than it does for a team playing home games at PNC. Imagine him at Great American or any team in the AL East
Mlodzinski stuff looked filthy in his 3rd and final inning. His line 3 ip 2 hits 0 runs 4 k's 37 pitches.
Skenes last night another solid outing 5 ip 5 hits 2 runs 6 k's 78 pitches. I am going to make my weekly repeat post again since Skenes hasn't won a game since May. I would have liked to see Mlodzinski start the game for 3 innings (maybe 4), then have Skenes finish it the last 5 or 6.
I have seen quite a bit of him. I love his preparation and mental approach. Not saying he is the best, but think he will keep getting better. With bad outings mixed in of course.
I don't think that is a good idea. Skenes has a very elaborate pre game routine. Not knowing exactly when to start it because he has to see how another pitcher is doing is not ideal. Also, what happens with a usual Mlod four inning three run start? You bring in Skenes down a couple of runs...no.
Thanks for the responding my hypothetical that will probably never happen. Part of his routine is throwing the football on the baseball field x amounts before his start. You are right as far as that being shot. As far as who starts, it wouldn't have to be Mlodzinski. It could be Burrows, Ashcraft, Oviedo, Bubba or Harrington in the second half of the season. If we are down 3 to 0, then give him another day off and don't waste his outing. Technically, we have wasted everyone of his starts since May the last time he won.
My biggest concern is Paul Skenes is a winner, but we never put him in a situation to win anymore. Bringing him in a game where he knows he is going to finish, I think could make winning the game a priority, not just going a good 5 innings.
The #2 reason it will not happen is because of the routines like you mentioned. The #1 reason is Skenes is too big of a gate to announce he will probably pitch, but then give him another day off.
Seems like a great step in Skenes' development to let him try to finish off a game. Though in today's game, would that skill even matter as complete games are almost a thing of the past.
I hope they win the draft lottery this December, because Grady Emerson is going to be a superstar. Beau Peterson is a beast as well.
College class seems better in 26 too. Everything I’ve read (BA, ESPN) all said 26 is good at the top and pretty deep too.
Lil’ Lombard too!
Yep, I think next year has 15 guys that would be top 10 this year, maybe more. College and Prep hitters are better at the top next year. Prep and College arms are about the same. The top of the draft next year is a combination of '23 and '24 with the top end being strong like '23 and the next tier being deep like '24.
23.99% odds on Tankathon
GreenWeeny over at Bucsdugout had a few good stat pulls:
Littlefield- Total 443 581 0.433
Cherington- To Date 332 470 0.414
Pittsburgh Pirates alltime record:
Record: 10,877-10,876
Figure we close out this season as a losing franchise, easy.
Bryan Reynolds, for the season, has a .610 OPS against RH pitchers. 6.1.0.
The team I follow is not good at baseball.
A major disappointment for sure!
I was looking at Reynolds statcast and what stands out for me is he's topping the ball more than normal and struggling with FBs and changes which usually isn't the case. It feels like it's mechanical and not age related regression to me. Saw this on a Royals blog discussing acquiring Reynolds:
>Ok, stop me if you've heard this one.
A really solid hitter, known more for amazing line drive power and pitch selection adds to his swing speed in the offseason and then begins topping the ball and smacking a lot more ground balls than he should.
His numbers crater and everyone is screaming about how bad he is and if his club should move on.
Yes I'm talking about Vinnie...but that could just as easily describe Reynolds.
His xAVG, xSLG, XWOBA are all in line with his last 3 years, it's just his actual wOBA that has cratered.
There's 2 factors likely causing it and I'd bet they're related.
His swing speed, exit velocity and hard hit % are all career highs. His launch angle is the lowest its been.
This has given him more barrels (good!) but also way more ground balls (bad!). Especially to his pull side where it looks like he's suddenly converting a bunch of line drives instead into ground balls.
So I don't see a player in regression, I see a player with a slight mechanical flaw in his swing. One that, if fixed, could actually result in a batter taking a step above his career numbers. Even better, the Royals already have a guy on the roster who has fixed (or adapted) to exactly this type of issue just this season.
Plus I see no reason to assume that acquiring Reynolds would bump Cags anywhere. Reynolds would move to LF or DH occasionally while Cags stays in RF. I've also said before, that I think that Reynolds defense could actually see some improvement and his lackluster numbers are due to technique not ability.
And if that's the case, then Reynolds is a cost controlled ~3WAR player potentially available for cheap.
I appreciate the comprehensive breakdown (literally) of Reynolds. I would then ask why they haven't been able to fix this situation.
When in the past 30 years, have the pirates organization "fixed" any hitter? It really is incredible how this organization sets players up to fail.
They have an inexperienced goofball named Bart Hanegraaf running their methodology team: https://barthanegraaff.weebly.com/about-me.html
Reynolds is also on record as a guy who tries to avoid tweaking his mechanics: https://www.mlb.com/news/bryan-reynolds-makes-swing-adjustments-after-slow-start (but he'd probably benefit from dropping his hands a little bit now to try and get to a little bit more launch angle and off the ground)
So basically this sheds more light on the idea that this organization is terribly run from the top on down.
I think that is obvious and the owner doesn't care.
Well, _I_ think that's likely and reportedly so do many others across the league given mentions in the media to include the Ke Hayes/Nunnallygate Athletic piece from a few years back but we'll never truly know from the outside, I suppose. The results sure suggest it's a terribly run team.
Tony Blanco Jr. resurfaces. DH this AM in FCL, if it isn’t rained out.
How big is that guy?
FINALLY
Pouring right now, but supposed to stop in a few minutes.
Blanco is officially shown as here on rehab, so I assume the intent is still that he goes to Bradenton.
I have zero hope he turns into anything. Feels like a guy who needed a ton of development and missed it all with the injuries.
Was it injury this season or bereavement from his dad passing in that nightclub roof collapse?
Dang I didn’t know his dad passed in that collapse.
https://people.com/former-mlb-player-tony-blanco-saved-teammate-esteban-german-before-dying-dominican-republic-nightclub-collapse-11712041
Leg injury. Tough year for him.
excellent. hopefully he has a strong end of year showing
Isn't that the daily Florida weather report?
About as accurate as usual. Was supposed to clear quickly but didn’t. Game postponed, which is fitting given Blanco’s troubles getting on the field.
Well.. he would be the player most likely to get struck by lightning. A human lighting rod.
I knew Hunter Barco was good but just looked up his career numbers. 3 seasons. 43 G. 40 GS. 153 IP. 105 H. 60 BB. 196 K. 2.76 ERA. 1.05 WHIP. .196 AVG.
By season’s end he will basically have 2/3 of a season at each ML affiliate. Will they bring him up later this year? Will they let him start next season in the bigs?
They need to add him to the 40 man this off-season, if he has innings and is healthy they should bring him up even if it's just one game.
This team sucks shit.
We're more than just a baseball team. We're a fan and family experience that the whole region can love. We have chipped ham sandwiches at the ballpark and we bronzed the Bucco Bricks! Check out our fireworks and pup nights!
BIG TIME!
I am Groot.
Following a rule of Pirates’ team (probably all bad teams): anything good (like a 6 game win streak) will be followed by something equally bad or worse.
law's new mock draft has the pirates taking doyle. gross. moskos vibes
Either Doyle or Arnold could be good or Willits or Parker.
Not even close, one of the few players in this draft class that has something special his fast ball is plus plus and could be in a major league bullpen after he signs. I like him more than Arnold and have him third behind Witherspoon and Kade.
see that's the thing. very decent chance he's a reliever. is that worth the 6th overall pick? i don't think so
Holds his velo through the whole game, so I think he could be a starter.If not maybe he is billy Wagner or Josh Hader.not bad 2 hall farmers a pick 6.
i wouldn't complain if that was the outcome......i just prefer to shoot a bit higher with a top ten pick
He'd at least be fun to watch pitch if you haven't seen this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0pX2KbLp-o
According to BA, analysts like his secondary stuff better than scouts. Probably makes him a target for Birdbrain's Laptop Armada. High effort delivery, which is especially ominous.
Speaking of the laptop armada, what justifies Dan Fox being retained for all these years? When was the last time we were seen as being ahead of the curve in analytics? Just no accountability from Williams to Cherington to Cherington's many VPs.
It’s the battle of the leading draft experts, as Law says the Pirates are going college and BA and MLB Pipeline say they’re going high school. In Law’s mock, Hernandez, Willits, and Arquette are all off the board. He says that many teams have Willits #1 overall on their boards, so it looks very unlikely that Willits will make it to the Pirates.
Historically, the guy with the best overall accuracy on mock drafts is Jim Callis, long with BA and now with Pipeline. He’s got a mock coming out this evening. Let’s see what he says.
FG also has one coming out today, supposedly (Longenhagen is having trouble keeping up which is somewhat understandable given the depth he tries to provide).
Thanks for the heads up. Again, I’m a big Callis believer. He’s been doing this for so long, he has great sources, and in an endeavor in which 40-50% accuracy is outstanding, he has the best track record.
Could have been a tossup between Borucki and Moreta for the Top Pitcher - Borucki 1 IP, 2 K and Moreta 1 IP, 1 H, 3 K. Throw Sanders in and the 3 of them combined for 3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K - very efficient late inning RP.
It’s really hilarious. Nuttin left Birdbrain in place because he wanted a strong finish. How’s that going?
Hopefully he will be finished.
Maybe Nutting has the strange, arrogant idea that by tanking with Cherington he can make a stronger case for small market teams in the next CBA as if the players and other owners won't notice the sustained success in Milwaukee and Tampa and the regular competitive teams in Cincy, Cleveland, and KC.
It really is ridiculous.
Word on the street according to Perato , Ben has a contract through 2028. That put them in the conner Griffin window.
Didn't Perotto say 2027?
The guy on the fan was reading the article and thought it said 2028, or 3.5 yrs from today.But I did not read the article.
I know all about Gorski's strike outs and games he looked over-matched, but not happy seeing him go. With his power, good baserunning and arm, he had a skill set that seemed lacking in this organization. I wish we could have found a way to keep him. He was one of the good guys I got to briefly meet in Indy and spring training. I will always remember his first at bat with the Pirates.
Good point. I think BC wants him, but not as a part of the 40. This gives him a chance to get picked up by a team where his RH power can mean a helluva lot more than it does for a team playing home games at PNC. Imagine him at Great American or any team in the AL East
Mlodzinski stuff looked filthy in his 3rd and final inning. His line 3 ip 2 hits 0 runs 4 k's 37 pitches.
Skenes last night another solid outing 5 ip 5 hits 2 runs 6 k's 78 pitches. I am going to make my weekly repeat post again since Skenes hasn't won a game since May. I would have liked to see Mlodzinski start the game for 3 innings (maybe 4), then have Skenes finish it the last 5 or 6.
The change up was promising, further development (consistency) would determine a lot for him.
I have seen quite a bit of him. I love his preparation and mental approach. Not saying he is the best, but think he will keep getting better. With bad outings mixed in of course.
I don't think that is a good idea. Skenes has a very elaborate pre game routine. Not knowing exactly when to start it because he has to see how another pitcher is doing is not ideal. Also, what happens with a usual Mlod four inning three run start? You bring in Skenes down a couple of runs...no.
Thanks for the responding my hypothetical that will probably never happen. Part of his routine is throwing the football on the baseball field x amounts before his start. You are right as far as that being shot. As far as who starts, it wouldn't have to be Mlodzinski. It could be Burrows, Ashcraft, Oviedo, Bubba or Harrington in the second half of the season. If we are down 3 to 0, then give him another day off and don't waste his outing. Technically, we have wasted everyone of his starts since May the last time he won.
My biggest concern is Paul Skenes is a winner, but we never put him in a situation to win anymore. Bringing him in a game where he knows he is going to finish, I think could make winning the game a priority, not just going a good 5 innings.
The #2 reason it will not happen is because of the routines like you mentioned. The #1 reason is Skenes is too big of a gate to announce he will probably pitch, but then give him another day off.
Seems like a great step in Skenes' development to let him try to finish off a game. Though in today's game, would that skill even matter as complete games are almost a thing of the past.
I think it's because he is of Polish lineage and is a Gamecock. Just a hunch.