Melkel and I mentioned it last night. Good flyer. Good move. Have to take some gambles like this to build depth and the bullpen on the cheap, rather than frittering away money on MLB contracts for AAAA guys.
He seems to have changed his approach some. If you go back a couple years, he was fastball/slider and groundball heavy. Now he seems to go more for Ks. His fastball definitely plays. The question is his slider. If they can help him find a grip or release that works better for that pitch, he could be a nice, cheap bullpen piece.
I don't think Cook should be looked at as a potential 1st base platoon. If he hits good enough to platoon at first, he's better in the outfield. Why would they want to play their best defensive outfielder at 1st, especially if one of their less defensive outfielders can play there. Let's just hope Horwitz can hit enough against right hand pitching to be a daily regular and Cook can hit enough to be more than a 4th or 5th outfielder.
Why not both? Because he's a better outfielder than anyone else on the current 40 man.
Is Cook really....OF'er? Yes and it isn't even close currently. His range, reads, routs, and arm are currently the first or second best on the team. Cruz has a better arm and range but lacks the reads and routs to take advantage of his range.
Cook would be a fine fill in at first but not a platoon.
Melkel. Good post. I'm with ya on this. We may already have much of the OF pieced together. I'm seeing one more move for a guy similar to HOOOOORRRVVVIIITZZZ to play right field when B-Rey is doing something else.
6 Defensive Runs Saved in 17 games. Plus 2 in each outfield position. 97th percentile in sprint speed and above average to plus arm strength and accuracy.
I watched Cook play enough games in triple A and in the majors to agree. I don't think anyone else is close. Maybe the next best fielding outfielder is Matt Gorski who has a cannon.
I agree as long as Reynolds can play first. My logic is simple, if Reynolds can not and Pirates sign (not optimistic) a full time Right fielder then Cook's only route to playing time could be at first IF IF IF he hits good enough to make the roster. In this example the OF is booked and he is a great defensive sub and 4th or 5th outfielder (depending on the roster) but gets any real ABs at first.
Well it's not the flashy trade we were hoping and it doesn't solve the lack of power in the lineup, but hopefully he can replicate what he did last year.
I'm a little skeptical due to his age, exit velocity, hard hit rate......but let's hope he repeats 2024. As Pirates fans all we can do is hope because we know ownership is not paying up for established hitters.
I like much of what I've read about Horwitz and those youtube videos linked below show a very sweet swing. So much better than signing a Tellez or Rizzo, and I even like it better than signing Santana because of the potential stability.
As to how good of a trade it is will depend on how well we evaluated the pitchers. I never felt quite as confident in Ortiz as the results would suggest so we may be trading him at a high point. But, with Cleveland's track record of developing pitching, there could be some regrets. I hope he does well, just not too well ;)
Like others have said, Ortiz for Horwitz straight up would seem fair but otoh there is a good chance that Kennedy and Hartle don't become more than replacement-level relievers and if they're what it took to get the deal done, then good for Ben (I don't think you'd nix a deal for a guy you really want due to Kennedy and Hartle).
Everyone keeps talking about Ortiz, but I think Hartle will be the one that makes this trade look extremely lopsided in a couple years from now. Hartle is the type of guy that you let season, one of the few pitching prospects in our organization with legit upside as a number 2. Replace Hartle with Solometo and I’m fine with this trade.
Interesting, and there is no better organization at developing pitchers like Hartle and Kennedy that then Guardians so that could definitely be the case.
ESPN's summary of the meetings has the Guards trading Gimenez on their list of head-scratching moves, which made me think that they really wanted one or more of our pitchers they traded for.
It would seem to be debatable. On the one hand, with the cost of pitching rising, getting a rotation piece for someone who may only be a platoon player and hasn't yet played a full MLB season seems more than fair (at least I'd be happy if I was a Guardians fan).
On the other hand, despite my skepticism about our FO, they're surely not going to throw in 2 prospects if Ortiz for Horwitz was roughly fair. So I guess I'll come down on the side that Ortiz plus one might have been fair, but maybe they couldn't agree on that one so instead chose two prospects that our FO wasn't as attached to.
Since I'm seemingly the outlier when it comes to not liking this trade, can I continue to rock the proverbial boat abit more🤔? I would rather we dont bring Cutch back, when you take a deep breath and look at his 2024 stats and factor in another yr of age, Im not there...whomever of the Nick, yorke, cook, backup catcher, trillo, Corner OF signing guy, blah, blah, can figure out DH, sorry😪😪
I think Cutch "blocks" a lot of at bats from players who could use them. I don't think any rotation of guys into DH will be as productive as AMc or as much of a joy to watch play. (I love to watch Andrew at bat... makes me happy inside.) That said, Ted makes some sense.
You kind of had me until you made your list which is made up (outside of corner OF signing and kind of Nick) of players who have zero MLB success at hitting. That to me is a big risk and Cutch was a good not great hitter last year. Big picture I do prefer the flexibility of not having a pure DH (well.. Ohtani- ok), but that is if we have actual hitters moving there. I am nitpicking but Tiolo and current backup catcher options are kind of baby barf options until they prove otherwise and that proving can come in their current roles.
And I do agree with that main point and am worried the end of the Cutch experience could be ugly because at some point he WON'T be a good to average hitter and how is that handled if it is mid season 2025 and Pirates ARE in a playoff hunt. He has beat my expectations since returning but nobody beats Father Time. But to beat the dead horse, for now (based on 2024) he is still a top of the order hitter for the Pirates roster and until I see that change I'd rather have him than not. While your list was not important in many ways it was.
Because the list shows nobody consistently better....yeah, but im not sure a regressing cutch and a rising whomever will be much different, except for using that money, as small as it is for a lefty relief pitcher or whatever and some positional flexibility, who knows, besides the shadow, the shadow knows, im told by 60s TV🤔🤣
While all the geniuses are throwing stones, I think this is a fair alternative to signing Rizzo or Goldie. Walker is going to get $25M per so that wasn't happening. I don't know how trade works out value wise (worth of each player), I'd think it comes out close. I'm ok with the trade. Unfortunately for the strong baseball fan, DK has all his minions in attack mode. None of them will ever fess up that they were wrong if Horwitz turns up to be a win
This really depends on your expectations of Horwitz, but the player with the highest upside in this trade is Hartle. IMO, he will be the one that we are talking about in a couple years.
I dont think i read anyone here stating they wanted Rizzo, the opposite, and I think most knew Walker wasnt in our budget, like most, hence mainly trade focus talks... I think it is ok, to have a difference in opinion on this particular trade and not be lumped into pgh sports radio where mostly dont care about here, again seemingly🤷♂️
Maybe this was the plan when they said Reynolds would play 1b part time. They were targeting a lefty for a platoon. Pirates will end up playing him all the time and that will sink his stats just like they did with conner Joe and others.
Damn, I like this move. Even suggested Horwitz earlier in the off-season. I guess we can put to bed the Reynolds to 1b move.
Ortiz to Cle kinda scares me, but Cherington traded from an area of strength and filled a need. This is a real baseball trade. Horwitz might not be your typical 1b masher, but he can hit and get on base. What's next? BP arms? Cutch?
Absolutely agree. Ortiz is a young, healthy, controllable starter that had an excellent season. There is concern for possible regression, but he also could improve. Pitching (like thm) currently has great value. Horwitz is an older, controllable first basemen that also had an excellent season. However, there is also considerable concern for regression. He is an undersized player for the position, has questionable defense, runs poorly and had significant platoon splits. The power is borderline (at best) for first base. It seems to me that Ortiz for Horwitz straight up was fair (perhaps slightly favoring Cleveland). Not sure why the Pirates had to throw in 2 left handed pitching prospects. The fact that their ceiling is low is irrelevant. The "cost of doing business" argument is also silly. Cleveland needs starting pitching as much as the Pirates need a first baseman. Why don't they have to overpay with extra prospects as a "cost of doing business." Don't hate this trade, but I think Pittsburgh gave up more assets than they should have. And it likely predicts what will happen with future trades.
Maybe it’s the “cost of doing business for the Pirates”, acquisition costs always seem to be an overpay. I would have been okay with including Kennedy, but IMO Hartle had a REAL chance to be one of the top pitching prospects in our organization within the next 12-18 months. Now, I like Horowitz’s numbers. He’s hit at every level and last seasons xwOBA was legit. However, this guy is as unconventional as they come for a 1B with a lot of question marks/concerns. Maybe he is just a late bloomer, guy that flew under the radar due to attending a small school with atypical size/traits, and he continues to rake. Nonetheless, this doesn’t mitigate the risks involved when acquiring the player.
From a pure 40 man roster management (I know there is room now), I wish they could wait to sign Cutch until February (pre spring training). This of course means both parties are ok with $ etc. The only risk I suppose would be if Cutch sustained some injury before then you would have to hope Pirates would do the right thing (not the time for a Nutting is cheap comment).
I think Horwitz is a nice start - now go after a veteran, proven EBH/RBI OF? Last year we started the year with Chapman for $10 mil, Perez for $8 mil, and Gonzales for $3 mil - $21 mil that we will not be investing in pitching for 2025. Switch Hitter Anthony Santander is going to get an offer for 5 years/$100 - $125 mil. We have at least that first year covered already, so why not make the effort while we have the Pitching? The Pirates need to be around that $100 - $110 mil level to compete and now is the best time to make that effort.
I LIKE this. Plus it would put to bed my skepticism about the Pirates' front office cooking BEANS for the feast. (Sorry, I really loved Tim Williams' article about Cherrington cooking beans.)
The Pirates are not going to sign a higher end FA like Santander unless they send out salary in a different trade.
I wish I could remember where I read it, but someone reported that the increase to payroll this year over last will be "modest", and that most of the increase will be covered by Keller's raise and having to pay the majority of IKF's contract.
And the Pirates paid hardly anything of Marco's contract last year, IIRC. The Braves and Mariners paid a lot of it.
What is the new rule about trading guys you have drafted in the most recent July? I thought the rule was that a team had to wait an entire year beyond draft day in order to trade a player
I'm going to say Horowitz is a shorter version of Sean Casey. People are going to like him. This coming from someone who never heard of him. And understands nothing about advanced metrics, stats, or whatever. I like the trade.
Lots of good opinions here, but I wanted to ask a question about bat speed. Keith Law said he wasn’t high on Horwitz because he lacks power and has poor bat speed, exit velocity and hard hit rate. From playing around on statcast, it appears it is possible to succeed without elite bat speed. As an extreme example, Freddie Freeman is the 20th percentile in bat speed (not trying to compare Horwitz to Freeman!). What set of skills does Horwitz need to possess to overcome a 17th percentile bat speed? In addition to good plate discipline, it appears he squares the ball up well, and has a good launch angle.
I have only seen 2 of his At Bats provided by AB about 7 hours ago - one to RF in Fenway I think and the other to RF in SF where fly balls go to die. I think he's a hitter who can connect for 15-20 HR's in PNC with a very team friendly K/BB Rate under 2/1 which would have led our team in 2024. In his first nearly full year, he put the ball in play for average, EBH's, RBI's, and some power - should we care about bat speed? We're Pirate fans - don't care how, just get it done!
So I looked up Kwan, and that would appear to be an instructive example. He similarly squares the ball up well and has a good launch angle. Horwitz is better than him in a lot of the other categories too.
In the time I’ve played with statcast I’ve seen different guys succeed with different profiles. The bat speed is a newer one though, and I wasn’t sure what to make of Law tossing it out there with the other stuff.
The "bat speed" stat is an aggregate average of all ABs, so a guy who gets defensive and tries to fight off some pitches with 2 strikes or a guy who is able to keep his bat back when he reads off speed after starting his swing is going to have a lower bat speed average. A guy who just takes his biggest hack at everything and ends up out in front of offspeed stuff is going to have a good bat speed, but he will suck. Juan Soto, who just signed the largest contract in baseball history, is only around 60%ile in bat speed. It is something to keep in mind, but by no means the end all be all. As to Horwitz lacking power, did Law even watch him for one minute, even just highlights on Youtube? The guy can put a serious charge into a baseball when he gets his pitch and pulls it.
So it sounds like there’s a tie between plate discipline and slower bat speeds, and we know Horwitz excels at the former. Sounds reasonable. Thank you.
As for Keith Law’s comments more generally, I didn’t know what to make of them. Wholly admit I don’t fully understand the impact of bat speed on performance, but I also felt like his comments were a bit dismissive of the Pirates current situation and needs. He kinda wrote him off as an OBP guy, but we do need that! As I have stated previously, with our pitching, just lengthening the lineup with above average production will go a long way. 1 WAR players at first and RF last year would have made a big difference, and we may have done better than that here. And he fits the budget lol.
Remember that these new data are all aggregates and mostly averages of singular events. For example, Horwitz's hard hit rate is lower than many, but he can hit the ball very hard. I give you the two Youtube videos of his hitting mammoth HRs below. Outside of Cruz (and maybe Suwinski), there is no other guy on the Pirates who can hit the ball that hard. Horwitz is a tough out. He battles with 2 strikes, and he will go with a pitch, hitting it the other way.
A dead-pull hitter who doesn't worry much about striking out and is taking big hacks with 2 strikes is going to have a better hard-hit rate and bat speed in the aggregate. This does not mean, however, that the dead-pull hack can hit the ball harder than Horwitz. It just means that when he does hit the ball, it tends to be harder. Of course, in our hypothetical example, our big-swinging pull-hitter is going to K a lot more than Horwitz. If you want to improve the metric, in my opinion, count all Ks as 0 MPH exit velocities, and now compare.
As with all statistics, one must apply reason to see how these statistics describe real-world phenomena and what we can learn from them. Statistics are a tool for analysis, not actual analysis. You can make statistics do or say anything you want.
Sorry... I get involved in these debates all the time about statistics in editing research papers and especially in poker, where the modern school thinks that a computer can determine the optimal way to play every hand based upon massive statistical analysis of how the hand plays out (against a hypothetical computer opponent, using the same programmed-learning method). I have tried to explain to all these "game-theory-optimal" people that "game-theory" only works if the other guys is playing the same game theory. Finally, some people are starting to realize that there is no such thing as "statistically optimal" poker. Baby steps... .
100+ comments and no one is on Elvis! The next Arqiumedes Caminero in our pen. His FB
will play. I like it!
Melkel and I mentioned it last night. Good flyer. Good move. Have to take some gambles like this to build depth and the bullpen on the cheap, rather than frittering away money on MLB contracts for AAAA guys.
He seems to have changed his approach some. If you go back a couple years, he was fastball/slider and groundball heavy. Now he seems to go more for Ks. His fastball definitely plays. The question is his slider. If they can help him find a grip or release that works better for that pitch, he could be a nice, cheap bullpen piece.
I don't think Cook should be looked at as a potential 1st base platoon. If he hits good enough to platoon at first, he's better in the outfield. Why would they want to play their best defensive outfielder at 1st, especially if one of their less defensive outfielders can play there. Let's just hope Horwitz can hit enough against right hand pitching to be a daily regular and Cook can hit enough to be more than a 4th or 5th outfielder.
Why not both? I'm guessing he will be deployed like Connor Joe.
Also, is Cook really their best defensive OF'er?
Why not both? Because he's a better outfielder than anyone else on the current 40 man.
Is Cook really....OF'er? Yes and it isn't even close currently. His range, reads, routs, and arm are currently the first or second best on the team. Cruz has a better arm and range but lacks the reads and routs to take advantage of his range.
Cook would be a fine fill in at first but not a platoon.
Billy Cook fan club checking in :)
Reads and Routs and Range! Oh MY!
Melkel. Good post. I'm with ya on this. We may already have much of the OF pieced together. I'm seeing one more move for a guy similar to HOOOOORRRVVVIIITZZZ to play right field when B-Rey is doing something else.
I've never seen a report on Cook...anywhere. Do you have something to share showing him as a plus-plus defender?
There's nothing at FanGraphs. He wasn't even an *other prospect of note*
6 Defensive Runs Saved in 17 games. Plus 2 in each outfield position. 97th percentile in sprint speed and above average to plus arm strength and accuracy.
Who's better?
I watched Cook play enough games in triple A and in the majors to agree. I don't think anyone else is close. Maybe the next best fielding outfielder is Matt Gorski who has a cannon.
Yep but he's not on the 40 lol.
You know as well as I do that it takes at least a year for defensive metrics to stabilize.
Give a name of someone better! I never said he was plus plus. Just better than anyone else on their 40 man. English do you comprehend it?
I agree as long as Reynolds can play first. My logic is simple, if Reynolds can not and Pirates sign (not optimistic) a full time Right fielder then Cook's only route to playing time could be at first IF IF IF he hits good enough to make the roster. In this example the OF is booked and he is a great defensive sub and 4th or 5th outfielder (depending on the roster) but gets any real ABs at first.
Well it's not the flashy trade we were hoping and it doesn't solve the lack of power in the lineup, but hopefully he can replicate what he did last year.
12 hrs in 320 at bats for his 1st year. I will take that.
Check barrel rate.
I'm a little skeptical due to his age, exit velocity, hard hit rate......but let's hope he repeats 2024. As Pirates fans all we can do is hope because we know ownership is not paying up for established hitters.
I like much of what I've read about Horwitz and those youtube videos linked below show a very sweet swing. So much better than signing a Tellez or Rizzo, and I even like it better than signing Santana because of the potential stability.
As to how good of a trade it is will depend on how well we evaluated the pitchers. I never felt quite as confident in Ortiz as the results would suggest so we may be trading him at a high point. But, with Cleveland's track record of developing pitching, there could be some regrets. I hope he does well, just not too well ;)
Like others have said, Ortiz for Horwitz straight up would seem fair but otoh there is a good chance that Kennedy and Hartle don't become more than replacement-level relievers and if they're what it took to get the deal done, then good for Ben (I don't think you'd nix a deal for a guy you really want due to Kennedy and Hartle).
Everyone keeps talking about Ortiz, but I think Hartle will be the one that makes this trade look extremely lopsided in a couple years from now. Hartle is the type of guy that you let season, one of the few pitching prospects in our organization with legit upside as a number 2. Replace Hartle with Solometo and I’m fine with this trade.
Interesting, and there is no better organization at developing pitchers like Hartle and Kennedy that then Guardians so that could definitely be the case.
ESPN's summary of the meetings has the Guards trading Gimenez on their list of head-scratching moves, which made me think that they really wanted one or more of our pitchers they traded for.
Ortiz for Horwitz straight up is not a fair trade.
Horwitz has 2 more YOC.
Howitz popped 1.9 fWAR in 97 games
Ortiz for his career has been worth 1.0 fWAR.
I see in Baseball Reference, same control, arb 2027, FA eligible in 2030...with Ortiz 3.6 bwar, howitz 1.5 to this point in there careers...
It would seem to be debatable. On the one hand, with the cost of pitching rising, getting a rotation piece for someone who may only be a platoon player and hasn't yet played a full MLB season seems more than fair (at least I'd be happy if I was a Guardians fan).
On the other hand, despite my skepticism about our FO, they're surely not going to throw in 2 prospects if Ortiz for Horwitz was roughly fair. So I guess I'll come down on the side that Ortiz plus one might have been fair, but maybe they couldn't agree on that one so instead chose two prospects that our FO wasn't as attached to.
now sign Roki to fill the empty rotation spot
Welp, let's hope Bubba kicks the effing door down in ST and goes north. Could be a fun summer on the horizon.
Since I'm seemingly the outlier when it comes to not liking this trade, can I continue to rock the proverbial boat abit more🤔? I would rather we dont bring Cutch back, when you take a deep breath and look at his 2024 stats and factor in another yr of age, Im not there...whomever of the Nick, yorke, cook, backup catcher, trillo, Corner OF signing guy, blah, blah, can figure out DH, sorry😪😪
Tedwins is a thinking man...
.
I think Cutch "blocks" a lot of at bats from players who could use them. I don't think any rotation of guys into DH will be as productive as AMc or as much of a joy to watch play. (I love to watch Andrew at bat... makes me happy inside.) That said, Ted makes some sense.
.
But still.
.
It's Cutch. 'Nuf Said.
You kind of had me until you made your list which is made up (outside of corner OF signing and kind of Nick) of players who have zero MLB success at hitting. That to me is a big risk and Cutch was a good not great hitter last year. Big picture I do prefer the flexibility of not having a pure DH (well.. Ohtani- ok), but that is if we have actual hitters moving there. I am nitpicking but Tiolo and current backup catcher options are kind of baby barf options until they prove otherwise and that proving can come in their current roles.
"Baby-Barf options?"
Bwa-ha-ha-HAAAAA!
I mis-read it as Baby Bart options......now that I would take!
I really wasnt focussed on the who, the blah blah was intended to show that, more the concept and the main point on returning the legend
And I do agree with that main point and am worried the end of the Cutch experience could be ugly because at some point he WON'T be a good to average hitter and how is that handled if it is mid season 2025 and Pirates ARE in a playoff hunt. He has beat my expectations since returning but nobody beats Father Time. But to beat the dead horse, for now (based on 2024) he is still a top of the order hitter for the Pirates roster and until I see that change I'd rather have him than not. While your list was not important in many ways it was.
Because the list shows nobody consistently better....yeah, but im not sure a regressing cutch and a rising whomever will be much different, except for using that money, as small as it is for a lefty relief pitcher or whatever and some positional flexibility, who knows, besides the shadow, the shadow knows, im told by 60s TV🤔🤣
We do have a roster that would function better if we could rotate guys through the DH spot. But I couldn't say no to bringing Cutch back.
They had a graphic on MLB Network last night showing Cutch as the 3rd best available FA this off-season.
To me, he's a slum dunk. Easiest signing they'll ever have. Give him 5M and shake hands.
Yeah. $5M for Cutch? Just wow. Ya can't say no.
I understand that mate👍
Oh, I know--that was clear in your post :). Just chiming in with my 2 cents.
I was just agreeing with you, actually, that it is hard to move on from Cutch, regardless how you read things in terms of hope and productivity🙏🤷♂️👍
Hopefully when it's time for Cutch to hangem' up, they'll be a place in the organization for him and that he realizes it.
While all the geniuses are throwing stones, I think this is a fair alternative to signing Rizzo or Goldie. Walker is going to get $25M per so that wasn't happening. I don't know how trade works out value wise (worth of each player), I'd think it comes out close. I'm ok with the trade. Unfortunately for the strong baseball fan, DK has all his minions in attack mode. None of them will ever fess up that they were wrong if Horwitz turns up to be a win
This really depends on your expectations of Horwitz, but the player with the highest upside in this trade is Hartle. IMO, he will be the one that we are talking about in a couple years.
DK has minions?
.
.
.
They're so cute.
Where do you think all the "Fire Them All" came from?
I dont think i read anyone here stating they wanted Rizzo, the opposite, and I think most knew Walker wasnt in our budget, like most, hence mainly trade focus talks... I think it is ok, to have a difference in opinion on this particular trade and not be lumped into pgh sports radio where mostly dont care about here, again seemingly🤷♂️
A good night for Pirates
he was not so great against left handed pitching last year
Maybe this was the plan when they said Reynolds would play 1b part time. They were targeting a lefty for a platoon. Pirates will end up playing him all the time and that will sink his stats just like they did with conner Joe and others.
Billy Cook is a fine caddy.
id dont know
it just feels underwhelming with hopes that they were going to acquire someone who has proven to do it year after year
just feels like BC and company trying to be clever again instead of trying to win
i guess really though it comes down to the fact that we only have $5 or so million to spend this offseason
Maybe BC is trying to be clever because his owner won't let him spend money....
It's like gravity. You cannot escape it. It always comes down to Nutting Is Cheap!
"i guess really though it comes down to the fact that we only have $5 or so million to spend this offseason"
This...
but that is even more reason to trade Keller instead of trading Ortiz
Damn, I like this move. Even suggested Horwitz earlier in the off-season. I guess we can put to bed the Reynolds to 1b move.
Ortiz to Cle kinda scares me, but Cherington traded from an area of strength and filled a need. This is a real baseball trade. Horwitz might not be your typical 1b masher, but he can hit and get on base. What's next? BP arms? Cutch?
He looks like a platoon guy based on last years numbers.
Which is fine. He'll face 70% of arms
Seems like BC gave up more than he needed to, Ortiz for Horowitz straight up seems pretty fair on the surface, no?
Absolutely agree. Ortiz is a young, healthy, controllable starter that had an excellent season. There is concern for possible regression, but he also could improve. Pitching (like thm) currently has great value. Horwitz is an older, controllable first basemen that also had an excellent season. However, there is also considerable concern for regression. He is an undersized player for the position, has questionable defense, runs poorly and had significant platoon splits. The power is borderline (at best) for first base. It seems to me that Ortiz for Horwitz straight up was fair (perhaps slightly favoring Cleveland). Not sure why the Pirates had to throw in 2 left handed pitching prospects. The fact that their ceiling is low is irrelevant. The "cost of doing business" argument is also silly. Cleveland needs starting pitching as much as the Pirates need a first baseman. Why don't they have to overpay with extra prospects as a "cost of doing business." Don't hate this trade, but I think Pittsburgh gave up more assets than they should have. And it likely predicts what will happen with future trades.
Maybe it’s the “cost of doing business for the Pirates”, acquisition costs always seem to be an overpay. I would have been okay with including Kennedy, but IMO Hartle had a REAL chance to be one of the top pitching prospects in our organization within the next 12-18 months. Now, I like Horowitz’s numbers. He’s hit at every level and last seasons xwOBA was legit. However, this guy is as unconventional as they come for a 1B with a lot of question marks/concerns. Maybe he is just a late bloomer, guy that flew under the radar due to attending a small school with atypical size/traits, and he continues to rake. Nonetheless, this doesn’t mitigate the risks involved when acquiring the player.
Kyle Tucker.
Knowing our FO, the Astros would probably fleece us for our top five prospects lol
From a pure 40 man roster management (I know there is room now), I wish they could wait to sign Cutch until February (pre spring training). This of course means both parties are ok with $ etc. The only risk I suppose would be if Cutch sustained some injury before then you would have to hope Pirates would do the right thing (not the time for a Nutting is cheap comment).
I think Horwitz is a nice start - now go after a veteran, proven EBH/RBI OF? Last year we started the year with Chapman for $10 mil, Perez for $8 mil, and Gonzales for $3 mil - $21 mil that we will not be investing in pitching for 2025. Switch Hitter Anthony Santander is going to get an offer for 5 years/$100 - $125 mil. We have at least that first year covered already, so why not make the effort while we have the Pitching? The Pirates need to be around that $100 - $110 mil level to compete and now is the best time to make that effort.
Because we will never do that, for "millions" of reasons. Not sure why we keep speculating about these kind of signings.
I LIKE this. Plus it would put to bed my skepticism about the Pirates' front office cooking BEANS for the feast. (Sorry, I really loved Tim Williams' article about Cherrington cooking beans.)
The Pirates are not going to sign a higher end FA like Santander unless they send out salary in a different trade.
I wish I could remember where I read it, but someone reported that the increase to payroll this year over last will be "modest", and that most of the increase will be covered by Keller's raise and having to pay the majority of IKF's contract.
And the Pirates paid hardly anything of Marco's contract last year, IIRC. The Braves and Mariners paid a lot of it.
His contract number for 2024 was $12 mil IIRC, with the Pirates only paying around $3 mil
What is the new rule about trading guys you have drafted in the most recent July? I thought the rule was that a team had to wait an entire year beyond draft day in order to trade a player
No longer. That restriction was eliminated. Can’t remember exactly when.
is there a new limit or the guy can be traded the day after the draft?
I just did a Google search on this, and apparently the rule changed in 2015 to allow current year draft choices to be traded after the World Series.
I thought the same thing
I'm going to say Horowitz is a shorter version of Sean Casey. People are going to like him. This coming from someone who never heard of him. And understands nothing about advanced metrics, stats, or whatever. I like the trade.
Hey mister. Get that second "o" out of Horwitz.
And boy oh boy do I hope it's pronounced "HorVits"... Or longer and drawn out like "HooooooorViiiiitz."
So like, when he banks one out of PNC, you have the time to go: "HOOOOOORRRRRVVVIITTTZZZZZ" before the splash.
I'm hoping Horvits but with a German accent. Or Russian.
BTW, per the P-G, Cherington was with the Jays when they drafted Horwitz.
Of course lol
Lots of good opinions here, but I wanted to ask a question about bat speed. Keith Law said he wasn’t high on Horwitz because he lacks power and has poor bat speed, exit velocity and hard hit rate. From playing around on statcast, it appears it is possible to succeed without elite bat speed. As an extreme example, Freddie Freeman is the 20th percentile in bat speed (not trying to compare Horwitz to Freeman!). What set of skills does Horwitz need to possess to overcome a 17th percentile bat speed? In addition to good plate discipline, it appears he squares the ball up well, and has a good launch angle.
I have only seen 2 of his At Bats provided by AB about 7 hours ago - one to RF in Fenway I think and the other to RF in SF where fly balls go to die. I think he's a hitter who can connect for 15-20 HR's in PNC with a very team friendly K/BB Rate under 2/1 which would have led our team in 2024. In his first nearly full year, he put the ball in play for average, EBH's, RBI's, and some power - should we care about bat speed? We're Pirate fans - don't care how, just get it done!
yes, it is possible to succeed with poor bat speed and exit velos. Arraez and Kwan are both in the 1 percentile for bat speed.
Guessing Bae is a 1% also and he'll be going to KBO soon. But yeah Horwitz could be the exception to the rule.
So I looked up Kwan, and that would appear to be an instructive example. He similarly squares the ball up well and has a good launch angle. Horwitz is better than him in a lot of the other categories too.
Horwitz is in the red in every category except hitting the ball hard.
In the time I’ve played with statcast I’ve seen different guys succeed with different profiles. The bat speed is a newer one though, and I wasn’t sure what to make of Law tossing it out there with the other stuff.
The "bat speed" stat is an aggregate average of all ABs, so a guy who gets defensive and tries to fight off some pitches with 2 strikes or a guy who is able to keep his bat back when he reads off speed after starting his swing is going to have a lower bat speed average. A guy who just takes his biggest hack at everything and ends up out in front of offspeed stuff is going to have a good bat speed, but he will suck. Juan Soto, who just signed the largest contract in baseball history, is only around 60%ile in bat speed. It is something to keep in mind, but by no means the end all be all. As to Horwitz lacking power, did Law even watch him for one minute, even just highlights on Youtube? The guy can put a serious charge into a baseball when he gets his pitch and pulls it.
So it sounds like there’s a tie between plate discipline and slower bat speeds, and we know Horwitz excels at the former. Sounds reasonable. Thank you.
As for Keith Law’s comments more generally, I didn’t know what to make of them. Wholly admit I don’t fully understand the impact of bat speed on performance, but I also felt like his comments were a bit dismissive of the Pirates current situation and needs. He kinda wrote him off as an OBP guy, but we do need that! As I have stated previously, with our pitching, just lengthening the lineup with above average production will go a long way. 1 WAR players at first and RF last year would have made a big difference, and we may have done better than that here. And he fits the budget lol.
Remember that these new data are all aggregates and mostly averages of singular events. For example, Horwitz's hard hit rate is lower than many, but he can hit the ball very hard. I give you the two Youtube videos of his hitting mammoth HRs below. Outside of Cruz (and maybe Suwinski), there is no other guy on the Pirates who can hit the ball that hard. Horwitz is a tough out. He battles with 2 strikes, and he will go with a pitch, hitting it the other way.
A dead-pull hitter who doesn't worry much about striking out and is taking big hacks with 2 strikes is going to have a better hard-hit rate and bat speed in the aggregate. This does not mean, however, that the dead-pull hack can hit the ball harder than Horwitz. It just means that when he does hit the ball, it tends to be harder. Of course, in our hypothetical example, our big-swinging pull-hitter is going to K a lot more than Horwitz. If you want to improve the metric, in my opinion, count all Ks as 0 MPH exit velocities, and now compare.
As with all statistics, one must apply reason to see how these statistics describe real-world phenomena and what we can learn from them. Statistics are a tool for analysis, not actual analysis. You can make statistics do or say anything you want.
Sorry... I get involved in these debates all the time about statistics in editing research papers and especially in poker, where the modern school thinks that a computer can determine the optimal way to play every hand based upon massive statistical analysis of how the hand plays out (against a hypothetical computer opponent, using the same programmed-learning method). I have tried to explain to all these "game-theory-optimal" people that "game-theory" only works if the other guys is playing the same game theory. Finally, some people are starting to realize that there is no such thing as "statistically optimal" poker. Baby steps... .