What happened to the other shoe that was supposed to drop after they signed Chapman for $10.5 million? Wasn’t it the consensus that spending that kind of money for a set-up man when their needs were elsewhere surely meant a trade was on the horizon?
My hope is teams are waiting for pitchers and catchers to report to open up the 40 man spots. Pirates should have 4 once that happens and only 9 days away.
Congrats to Witt and Royals fans. Certainly a day to celebrate.
Now for the splash of cold water. The last 3 guys to sign huge extensions in his age range and years of service are Stanton, Tatis, and Julio Rodriguez.
Fair to say none of these guys have elevated their game after rolling in the dough. I’m hoping Witt reverses the trend.
It’s not like Julio and Tatis are bad players. It just means they’re getting paid commensurate with their abilities. Hell, Tatis’ best year was his first season after signing the deal.
Tatis had a reduction in EV, HH%, and LD% last year after coming back from his PED suspension and off field injury. Yes he won a gold glove as an OF, but there’s no way a RF is as valuable to a team as a SS.
As for Julio, his WAR went down by basically 1 bWAR last year.
Both players may end up being better as they age. However, it’s my belief signing a long-term guaranteed contract at an early age can and does cause players to regress. Some may lose the drive to work as hard. Some may put undue pressure on themselves to live up to the contract. And some may just regress even though they continue doing all the right things.
I think it’s fair to see how Tatis responds another year removed from the injury. It’s a good point that he may never get back to his 2021 numbers though.
Julio’s WAR went up up by half a win on FG. All his numbers aligned with 2022, he just had less batted ball luck.
That’s a fair view on extensions, but there’s a conspicuous absence of one extension that’s easily surpassed those three you cited: Acuna’s. I’m pretty sure no one’s arguing against that one. Are you leery of extensions in terms of years? Dollars? Or is it kind of a case by case basis?
Yes. I think it is a little player friendly with the opt outs, but there is a thing called inflation. Also, real teams and real GMs like to have hard numbers in advance to plan out their budgets a year or 2 in advance. That is for teams that have budgets, which would be 30 of the 32, minus the Pirates and As.
I like the deal and feel it's fair. I'm glad the Royals made it.
I see it as player friendly on the lines of his opt outs, if Witt is a superstar and inflation takes salaries to $50 million plus, he has options. If regression hits Witt the Royals are still on the hook for 11 years and nearly $300 million.
IMO, he is the best young player in baseball today. Of course, I am biased, but Wander Franco is in serious trouble and is a headcase. Julio Rodriguez was disappointing this year. Witt's hard-hit numbers, chase rates, and in-zone contact are all plus, plus, especially his hard-hit numbers. On top of this, he is fast and plays high-grade defense at a premium position. What more can you ask for?
I didn’t think Julio was that disappointing. His slow start led people to think he was, but many of his numbers align with his rookie year. Frankly, he had a bit more luck his rookie year than last season.
Franco well…head case is not the word I would use. He’s done.
Don't get me wrong, I'm jealous and wish we would do something like that (on pitching preferably).
However, I never take things at face value much anymore and I'll never underestimate an owners willingness to spend 200 million in order to get a tax break worth 4-6 BILLION DOLLARS over 40 years.
Love it. Has 2 player opt outs after 2030 though, so they are only guaranteed 2 of his free-agent years.
Interesting thing. Witt said that the Royals spending to bring in talent this off-season convinced him that they are dedicated to building a winning team and this is what convinced him to sign. Would he have signed the same contract if he were with the Pirates? One wonders.
Was wondering about Nick G and his inability to hit a curve. In what way could they improve/develop this skill? Just only pitch curve balls to him in batting practice. Starting with a high school kid and then move up in skill levels like Tetris? Or is it being totally thrown off to adjust to a curve when he doesn't know it is coming? Just sharts a little and takes a cut while hoping for the best? I can forward the answers to whoever is sucking it up in developing hitters.
Needs to overhaul his swing, nothing short of that will work.
What scouts perceived as a positive trait has proven to be his fatal flaw. That tight little lightning-quick loop is into and out of the zone so steeply and so quickly that he's toast against anything that isn't straight. Just like Keston Hiura and Jeter Downs and Carter Keiboom and the others with similar traits.
Nick's first homer in the bigs displayed the power the Pirates need. The Pirates made a serious effort to try to get him to cut down on the strike out. Once they got him thinking, he looked like a slap hitter than couldn't get the ball to the outfield. I like your idea of him getting a lot more practice at hitting curves, but then let him concentrate on what he does best.
Fun fact…he and junior griffey, both born in Donora, shared the same birthday (11/21)…it’s my birthday as well but I was born in Huntingdon County which is AFAIK the far eastern outpost of pirate fandom
I think both of them were okay vs curves. Not me, alas.
Dude bought me a White Russian in a Denora bar one time because I used the word "dude" a lot. Guess I still do say it too much. Dudes gotta be himself I guess.
So I say I how they tried to change his approach and he was awful in the majors after that. Then you are going to show me that same 115 at bat sample to prove something and say it is obviously correct. That type of logic could get you on the Pirates Analytics team.
They need to invest in Nick G. .380 OBP and 500+ slugging in AAA. He's seeing curves there. So far, this development group hasn't seen a single prospect outside of Triolo make the move from MiLB to MLB and be good for any meaningful stretch. It's bleak.
He's seeing them, he's just not hitting them. He had an 18% swinging strike rate against breaking balls in Indy last year. Only player worst, Mason Martin. He's not hitting them anywhere, and that's the problem.
He better get himself to Driveline or somewhere because the Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Club won't offer any help with swing adjustment or development.
WTF are these people doing? Tony Kemp? I would think that there are at least 4 better options at the moment. Get another starting pitcher for cryin out loud!
Let’s see, an offensively challenged middle infielder, slightly above replacement level, that we will have to outbid other teams for, when we have multiple people on hand with the same skill set at a fraction of the salary?
Bottom feeding! Say "no" to these rumors! At least you have to give credit to them for NOT signing Adam Frazier or Carlos Santana. If only we could give them credit for signing anyone relevant besides surprise $10 M setup guy Chapman.
No surprise that Adames is being offered - the Brewers traded a major part of the Rotation to get Joey Ortiz from B'more. They received more from the O's, but the question is can Joey hit at the MLB level? He had a very nice year at AAA last year (Priester did too) and is solid at SS and can also play 2B/3B.
Next to go will be Christian Yellich who was posting fWAR's in the 7's in 2018 and 2019, and since the Brewers signed him in Mar 2020 for 9 Years he has had fWAR's of 0.7 (2020), 1.5, 2.2, and 4.1 in 2023. Yep, added together they don't add up to much more for 4 years than he was returning Value in one year when the deal was signed. He's 32, a Def negative as a LF, and getting paid $26 mil a year.
Nope. Next to go will be Adames and Williams, on expiring deals. Yelich’s deal makes him difficult to trade. He’s rebounded after a few off seasons, and he’s still an effective player…even if he’s not the player from 2018-2019. Whomst among us is the person we were 5 years ago anyway?
So you think the Haines effect has worn off Yelich for good, eh? I don't know. He is 32 and put up about 4 WAR for the 3 seasons prior to last. I think last season may have been the outlier and 3 prior a more accurate reflection of where Yelich is at in his career at this point. We shall see this year though, I guess.
I think Christian Yelich is fully capable of hitting like post-peak Andrew McCutchen for the next three years, yes. 110-120 wRC+ is exactly how he's projected, which gets them a 3ish WAR player with his expected defense.
I mostly just push back on this fearmongering of "albatross", though.
They're trading two dudes in walk years which is precisely the kind of roster management that's made them wildly successful. They'd be doing exactly that with or without Yelich.
Tony Kemp WHY? no reason to sign him, they have at least equal to if not better than what he can provide the team and the internal options would be a whole lot cheaper,,,
How did we do in Keith Law’s Top 100? I think it was published today.
Not that I think much of Law’s opinions, but with FanGraphs taking the “we’ll post complete prospect lists after extended spring training” approach, I’ll take any content I can get.
I predicted that he would be higher on Johnson and Chandler that other outlets based on his comments in the course of the season last year. He also had a very positive write-up on Jones, calling him the most likely of the Pirates’ AAA prospects to contribute this year.
I think they can’t afford to keep anyone and EL is drastically overworked. It also feels like he’s so…particular about the thoroughness of lists, that it ends up bottlenecking their entire operation.
He said in the Mets list that: “I like to include what’s happening in minor league and extended spring training in my reports as much as possible, since scouting high concentrations of players in Arizona and Florida allows me to incorporate real-time, first-person information into the org lists.” I can understand that position, but part of the point of offseason lists is to capture where prospects were at after the previously finished season. Otherwise, there’s never a good time to publish a list, because prospect status is always in flux. At least in the winter, there aren’t likely to be significant fluctuations (minus a winter league injury, I suppose). It’s good to get real-time info too, but call that something different, like, idk, an in-season scouting report. I’m sure Anthony would love to see what Chandler and Skenes look like in Spring Training too, but instead, he’s gotta make a call based on the information we have to date.
It’s not like when the Orioles offered Ortiz and Hall for Burnes, the Brewers FO said, “I sure wish we had EL’s prospect rankings to determine if this is fair market value.”
Lists are fun to discuss no matter if they come in January, February or March, but don’t make them something they’re not.
Why the interest in Gary Sanchez? Could Jason Delay be part of a package headed to Miami for Edward Cabrera? Miami needs to add a catcher and Delay would be a solid defense-first option for their quality pitching staff.
Sanchez was actually sort of three true outcomes good last year and hit a bunch of dingers in 75 games. Statcast still thinks he sucks at blocking but he's improved in all other aspects of catching and is an elite pop time guy.
I think the Yankees are better at developing hitters and Sanchez is a guy that can hit homers. I think all of the Pirate pitchers would prefer to pitch to Delay as opposed to Sanchez.
Remember though that Jacob Stallings was a 2.5 fWAR Catcher, mostly for his defense, but also had a very respectable .300+ xwOBA for the Pirates prior to the trade to Miami. In return, we did get some mileage out of Thompson; Nicolas could show up in our BP this year, and Connor Scott, still only 24, is a good def CF, but struggling with the bat.
What happened to the other shoe that was supposed to drop after they signed Chapman for $10.5 million? Wasn’t it the consensus that spending that kind of money for a set-up man when their needs were elsewhere surely meant a trade was on the horizon?
My hope is teams are waiting for pitchers and catchers to report to open up the 40 man spots. Pirates should have 4 once that happens and only 9 days away.
This is more click bait by MLBTR. It's first week of Feb. and they know starved Pirate fans will click and read anything.
I can't see them signing Kemp unless it's a minor league deal.
They're probably going to sign him now, our new 2nd basemen. Veteranocity Yay!
Royals extend Witt Jr for 11 years. Up to 14 with options.
Congrats to Witt and Royals fans. Certainly a day to celebrate.
Now for the splash of cold water. The last 3 guys to sign huge extensions in his age range and years of service are Stanton, Tatis, and Julio Rodriguez.
Fair to say none of these guys have elevated their game after rolling in the dough. I’m hoping Witt reverses the trend.
It’s not like Julio and Tatis are bad players. It just means they’re getting paid commensurate with their abilities. Hell, Tatis’ best year was his first season after signing the deal.
Are you telling me performance is enhanced when taking performance enhancing drugs?
Shocked face!
Then he moved to another position, won a gold glove, and put up a five win season.
Rodriguez was basically the same player (a five win player) in both seasons. Such a shame he didn’t “elevate” his game.
Tatis had a reduction in EV, HH%, and LD% last year after coming back from his PED suspension and off field injury. Yes he won a gold glove as an OF, but there’s no way a RF is as valuable to a team as a SS.
As for Julio, his WAR went down by basically 1 bWAR last year.
Both players may end up being better as they age. However, it’s my belief signing a long-term guaranteed contract at an early age can and does cause players to regress. Some may lose the drive to work as hard. Some may put undue pressure on themselves to live up to the contract. And some may just regress even though they continue doing all the right things.
I think it’s fair to see how Tatis responds another year removed from the injury. It’s a good point that he may never get back to his 2021 numbers though.
Julio’s WAR went up up by half a win on FG. All his numbers aligned with 2022, he just had less batted ball luck.
That’s a fair view on extensions, but there’s a conspicuous absence of one extension that’s easily surpassed those three you cited: Acuna’s. I’m pretty sure no one’s arguing against that one. Are you leery of extensions in terms of years? Dollars? Or is it kind of a case by case basis?
They paid free agent value for the free agent years, with him being able to opt out after 7 years kinda of makes this a player friendly deal.
Yes. I think it is a little player friendly with the opt outs, but there is a thing called inflation. Also, real teams and real GMs like to have hard numbers in advance to plan out their budgets a year or 2 in advance. That is for teams that have budgets, which would be 30 of the 32, minus the Pirates and As.
I like the deal and feel it's fair. I'm glad the Royals made it.
I see it as player friendly on the lines of his opt outs, if Witt is a superstar and inflation takes salaries to $50 million plus, he has options. If regression hits Witt the Royals are still on the hook for 11 years and nearly $300 million.
IMO, he is the best young player in baseball today. Of course, I am biased, but Wander Franco is in serious trouble and is a headcase. Julio Rodriguez was disappointing this year. Witt's hard-hit numbers, chase rates, and in-zone contact are all plus, plus, especially his hard-hit numbers. On top of this, he is fast and plays high-grade defense at a premium position. What more can you ask for?
I didn’t think Julio was that disappointing. His slow start led people to think he was, but many of his numbers align with his rookie year. Frankly, he had a bit more luck his rookie year than last season.
Franco well…head case is not the word I would use. He’s done.
Not disagreeing, I like the deal and at the very least the Royals bought out 3 free agent years (prime years at that). It's a risk worth taking.
I think the Jason Bay user made an excellent point about the Owner timing this deal right before voters are deciding whether to fund a new stadium.
Lends a whole new light into his motivations.
Don't get me wrong, I'm jealous and wish we would do something like that (on pitching preferably).
However, I never take things at face value much anymore and I'll never underestimate an owners willingness to spend 200 million in order to get a tax break worth 4-6 BILLION DOLLARS over 40 years.
This shows how much money even lower revenue clubs have at their disposal when they want to build a winner.
Love it. Has 2 player opt outs after 2030 though, so they are only guaranteed 2 of his free-agent years.
Interesting thing. Witt said that the Royals spending to bring in talent this off-season convinced him that they are dedicated to building a winning team and this is what convinced him to sign. Would he have signed the same contract if he were with the Pirates? One wonders.
I think he was scheduled to be a free agent in 2028, think they got 3 free agent years for $90 million.
Isn't it 4 opt outs in 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th years? No, he wouldn't have agreed to that with the Pirates.
With the opt outs he might have, no way the pirates would've offered it.
Good signing. Has the double effect of hopefully swinging that April 2 stadium tax vote.
Good point. Be foolish to think the Owner didn’t take that into consideration.
Was wondering about Nick G and his inability to hit a curve. In what way could they improve/develop this skill? Just only pitch curve balls to him in batting practice. Starting with a high school kid and then move up in skill levels like Tetris? Or is it being totally thrown off to adjust to a curve when he doesn't know it is coming? Just sharts a little and takes a cut while hoping for the best? I can forward the answers to whoever is sucking it up in developing hitters.
Needs to overhaul his swing, nothing short of that will work.
What scouts perceived as a positive trait has proven to be his fatal flaw. That tight little lightning-quick loop is into and out of the zone so steeply and so quickly that he's toast against anything that isn't straight. Just like Keston Hiura and Jeter Downs and Carter Keiboom and the others with similar traits.
Thanks for the response. Makes sense. Not sure if I want the Pirates overhauling anything these days.
That's my thought as well, either overhaul the swing to be somewhat flat or target right center on everything, sapping his power potential.
Nick's first homer in the bigs displayed the power the Pirates need. The Pirates made a serious effort to try to get him to cut down on the strike out. Once they got him thinking, he looked like a slap hitter than couldn't get the ball to the outfield. I like your idea of him getting a lot more practice at hitting curves, but then let him concentrate on what he does best.
If "crushing mistake fastballs" is what he does best, seems like we might have a flaw in this strategy.
“You wait until it curves. Then you hit the shit out of it.” -The Oracle of Donora, Stan Musial-
Fun fact…he and junior griffey, both born in Donora, shared the same birthday (11/21)…it’s my birthday as well but I was born in Huntingdon County which is AFAIK the far eastern outpost of pirate fandom
I think both of them were okay vs curves. Not me, alas.
Dude bought me a White Russian in a Denora bar one time because I used the word "dude" a lot. Guess I still do say it too much. Dudes gotta be himself I guess.
So now the only fastballs he crushes are mistakes. Oh brother.
Has there been anyone that just crushes curveballs. F fastballs and the rest. Fella known just for punishing a poor curveball.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nick-gonzales-693304?stats=statcast-r-zones-mlb
Yes this is obviously correct.
So I say I how they tried to change his approach and he was awful in the majors after that. Then you are going to show me that same 115 at bat sample to prove something and say it is obviously correct. That type of logic could get you on the Pirates Analytics team.
believe whatever fairy dust you want to brother, don't let me stop you.
They need to invest in Nick G. .380 OBP and 500+ slugging in AAA. He's seeing curves there. So far, this development group hasn't seen a single prospect outside of Triolo make the move from MiLB to MLB and be good for any meaningful stretch. It's bleak.
He's seeing them, he's just not hitting them. He had an 18% swinging strike rate against breaking balls in Indy last year. Only player worst, Mason Martin. He's not hitting them anywhere, and that's the problem.
He better get himself to Driveline or somewhere because the Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Club won't offer any help with swing adjustment or development.
WTF are these people doing? Tony Kemp? I would think that there are at least 4 better options at the moment. Get another starting pitcher for cryin out loud!
At least it's not Steve Kemp.....
CUUUUEEEE---TOOOO....
Kemp will be on the bench. Peggy/Bae/Nick/Triolo should play everyday. It might be in Indy
“Kemp will be on the bench.”
Did Shelton get replaced while I was out?
Let’s see, an offensively challenged middle infielder, slightly above replacement level, that we will have to outbid other teams for, when we have multiple people on hand with the same skill set at a fraction of the salary?
Pirates FO: sign us up!
Bottom feeding! Say "no" to these rumors! At least you have to give credit to them for NOT signing Adam Frazier or Carlos Santana. If only we could give them credit for signing anyone relevant besides surprise $10 M setup guy Chapman.
No surprise that Adames is being offered - the Brewers traded a major part of the Rotation to get Joey Ortiz from B'more. They received more from the O's, but the question is can Joey hit at the MLB level? He had a very nice year at AAA last year (Priester did too) and is solid at SS and can also play 2B/3B.
Next to go will be Christian Yellich who was posting fWAR's in the 7's in 2018 and 2019, and since the Brewers signed him in Mar 2020 for 9 Years he has had fWAR's of 0.7 (2020), 1.5, 2.2, and 4.1 in 2023. Yep, added together they don't add up to much more for 4 years than he was returning Value in one year when the deal was signed. He's 32, a Def negative as a LF, and getting paid $26 mil a year.
Nope. Next to go will be Adames and Williams, on expiring deals. Yelich’s deal makes him difficult to trade. He’s rebounded after a few off seasons, and he’s still an effective player…even if he’s not the player from 2018-2019. Whomst among us is the person we were 5 years ago anyway?
Unless they’re going to throw in a prospect like Joey Ortiz, a trade for Yelich will have to include the Brewers eating a bunch of salary.
Yelich is still owed $130 million over the next 5 years.
Ouch. That is a serious albatross to a team like Milwaukee and explains why they are going full-bore on the youth movement.
Their owner was just named as an investor in the $3B investment in the PGA Tour.
He's in a different league than Nutting.
Yes the 92-win Division Champion Milwaukee Brewers has been devastated by the contract of their 4 WAR centerfielder.
So you think the Haines effect has worn off Yelich for good, eh? I don't know. He is 32 and put up about 4 WAR for the 3 seasons prior to last. I think last season may have been the outlier and 3 prior a more accurate reflection of where Yelich is at in his career at this point. We shall see this year though, I guess.
I think Christian Yelich is fully capable of hitting like post-peak Andrew McCutchen for the next three years, yes. 110-120 wRC+ is exactly how he's projected, which gets them a 3ish WAR player with his expected defense.
I mostly just push back on this fearmongering of "albatross", though.
They're trading two dudes in walk years which is precisely the kind of roster management that's made them wildly successful. They'd be doing exactly that with or without Yelich.
I think they're going full youth because they're churning. They also have good yutes.
Tony Kemp WHY? no reason to sign him, they have at least equal to if not better than what he can provide the team and the internal options would be a whole lot cheaper,,,
How did we do in Keith Law’s Top 100? I think it was published today.
Not that I think much of Law’s opinions, but with FanGraphs taking the “we’ll post complete prospect lists after extended spring training” approach, I’ll take any content I can get.
Law:
10: Skenes
24: Johnson
39: Jones
48: Chandler
I predicted that he would be higher on Johnson and Chandler that other outlets based on his comments in the course of the season last year. He also had a very positive write-up on Jones, calling him the most likely of the Pirates’ AAA prospects to contribute this year.
He was previously very high on Kevin Newman, so I’m not going to start preparing Jones’ HOF plaque, but it’s still nice to see.
Personally, I’d have Solometo ahead, but I like guys with deceptive deliveries and Jones’ reliance on two pitches worries me.
Guys are wrong on prospects all the time. There’s really no sense holding that against Law anymore.
RHH have an awwwfully long time to see the ball when Solo is throwing. I don't know man...
I'm not sure what happened to Fangraphs.
I think they can’t afford to keep anyone and EL is drastically overworked. It also feels like he’s so…particular about the thoroughness of lists, that it ends up bottlenecking their entire operation.
He said in the Mets list that: “I like to include what’s happening in minor league and extended spring training in my reports as much as possible, since scouting high concentrations of players in Arizona and Florida allows me to incorporate real-time, first-person information into the org lists.” I can understand that position, but part of the point of offseason lists is to capture where prospects were at after the previously finished season. Otherwise, there’s never a good time to publish a list, because prospect status is always in flux. At least in the winter, there aren’t likely to be significant fluctuations (minus a winter league injury, I suppose). It’s good to get real-time info too, but call that something different, like, idk, an in-season scouting report. I’m sure Anthony would love to see what Chandler and Skenes look like in Spring Training too, but instead, he’s gotta make a call based on the information we have to date.
This would matter if “lists” actually mattered.
It’s not like when the Orioles offered Ortiz and Hall for Burnes, the Brewers FO said, “I sure wish we had EL’s prospect rankings to determine if this is fair market value.”
Lists are fun to discuss no matter if they come in January, February or March, but don’t make them something they’re not.
They had four: Skenes, TJ, Jones, and Bubba in that order. However, all four were in the top 50.
I am choosing to believe that he is now the most accurate prospect ranker because I like this
Harrumph!
Why the interest in Gary Sanchez? Could Jason Delay be part of a package headed to Miami for Edward Cabrera? Miami needs to add a catcher and Delay would be a solid defense-first option for their quality pitching staff.
Sanchez was actually sort of three true outcomes good last year and hit a bunch of dingers in 75 games. Statcast still thinks he sucks at blocking but he's improved in all other aspects of catching and is an elite pop time guy.
I doubt the Marlins would be interested in getting another catcher from us.
“Why the interest in Gary Sanchez?”
Because it’s been proven the Yankees are better at developing Catchers than the Pirates.
I think the Yankees are better at developing hitters and Sanchez is a guy that can hit homers. I think all of the Pirate pitchers would prefer to pitch to Delay as opposed to Sanchez.
They do have a history of taking a catcher off our hands...
Remember though that Jacob Stallings was a 2.5 fWAR Catcher, mostly for his defense, but also had a very respectable .300+ xwOBA for the Pirates prior to the trade to Miami. In return, we did get some mileage out of Thompson; Nicolas could show up in our BP this year, and Connor Scott, still only 24, is a good def CF, but struggling with the bat.
Regarding the impending Prospect Rankings, if you don’t have Bubba ranked #1, Anthony, I’ll know you’re a sell out. 😎
Id say the same for all of this sean sullivan support! But Ill settle for top 3