What would the Tucker deal have looked like for the Pirates? I don't know other teams' prospects so I can't tell how expensive this would have been in mirror-world where the Pirates try something big.
Given the value of Paredes, it’s hard to see how we could have matched the offer without including Termarr, Konnor Griffin or Bubba Chandler. Of course, Houston might have rejected the offer anyways because they may have wanted a piece they could plug and play right away like Paredes.
Well we dont have an MLB player to send on the level of Parades but considering they wanted a package with Gil from the yankees it sounds like Jones plus more would have been the start for us.
Don't like the Cubs with Tucker but maybe it's just one season? There is some chatter behind "Curt Flood for the HOF" out there. There is no doubt his career changed baseball forever with the advent of free agency. What is sad, in my opinion, is that Flood simply didn't want to leave St. Louis. He wanted the freedom to choose who he played for. Imagine a world where an Andre Dawson type free agent (I want to play for you, Cubs, so here is a blank contract!) was the norm instead of money-grabbers. Maybe the Pirates would still be the undesirable team but maybe the Dodgers/Yankees/Mets, etc. wouldn't always be the prime destination for superstars. Just a thought...
The Pirates are quietly going about building a strong nucleus of Middle of the Order Hitters to complement a Top 5 MLB Rotation. Reynolds and Cruz led the way in 2024 and adding Spencer Horwitz solidifies the order. If Matt Hague can get IKF to become the bat he was at Toronto, that adds another solid contributor at SS. Endy Rodriguez, before his injury, was a solid .268/.356/.415/.771 OPS, with an 11.4% BB/14.9% SO rate at AAA in 2024. He's been an excellent hitter ever since we got him from the Mets.
What do we get from Ke'Bryan Hayes who is signed for pennies for the next 5 years plus an Option year? Can he return to 2024 form? What do we have in Nick Yorke? I am sure we will have a Nick at second base - which one? Can Jack Suwinski return to 2024 Slugging of .454? What do we get from Billy Cook? Can Sammy Siani take that confidence from the AFL to AAA?
If the Pirates do not sign anybody else, I think there is enough talent in place right now to finish 10 above .500 rather than 10 below! If this group can come together, and Hague can maintain IKF and Horwitz at their Jays numbers and break through with Suwinski and others, then there is hope!
I thought going into the off season that we would see at least 3 MI's and 3 Pitchers involved in trades. We have met the number of Pitchers in one trade, but we still have a small boatload of MI's we can offer. Nobody asking?
If the Pirates do not sign anybody else, I think there is enough talent in place right now to finish 10 above .500 rather than 10 below!—- not a chance in hell. We lost a starting pitcher and a left-handed reliever, and we gained a first baseman. And you think we’re gonna be 10 games above 500. lol
IMO, they need two legit bats on top of the hopium associated with all the guys that underperformed last year. We acquired an unproven, platoon bat; that’s one-half of a legit bat. We have a long ways to go…
If Hayes doesn’t have some European back procedure, then there is no hope for him. This is still a very weak hitting team and mediocre to bad defense that will keep them from winning enough games to be playoff contenders. If management will not spend to get bats here, then this should be the last straw for Pirates fans. The pirates have the makings of a top 5 NL rotation with no help offensively or defensively. It’s getting to be a joke now…
Maybe read the whole thread, rather than hyper focus on two words and a sarcastic response.
The point is simple. The pirates have a window. They need to take advantage of it. It would seem difficult for fans to show up in the future if the Skenes window is a failure.
I don't have much hope for Suwinski, Hank or Hayes. I've never liked Hayes' swing. They all seem like level-headed, hard working dudes, so I hope I'm wrong and they crush it. I also hope that Triolo has spent the off-season working on his glutes, and comes to ST with the azzzzz required to hit for more power. Also hope the Pirates somehow find a legit OF bat....
Crazy the dude was 0-5 with over 4 era and was still about a win over replacement. I don't think I will ever understand the advanced metrics. Mainly because I will never try. Let y'all do it and translate it to me.
MLB lists durbin at 5 ft 6.in, Id bet he walks a lot.
WAR likes pitchers with swing-and-miss. It likes to credit the defensive player with some value for defensive putouts, which reduces the pitcher value. There is some sense in it, but I think that, in general, WAR between pitchers and position players is incomparable because WAR undervalues pitchers in general (not just pitch-to-contact guys).
There’s a certain luck factor with a low era guy, with low k rates. The more a pitcher lets a hitter put the ball in play, the % of balls finding holes goes up. Obviously, when you’re striking hitters out, you don’t need to rely on fielders being where the ball is hit.
Boy a healthy Hayes would have been a seductive trade chip, but of course we sign the one MLB legacy kid with some core injury, thanks god... Anyways, you say fantasy so I know you are having fun, with a tad of hope, but Bellinger is costly and injury risky himself, so, so, you made me investigate mate🤷♂️🤣
I find that Tucker trade compelling, Houston gets a fine young mlb producing player, a serviceable swingman reliever (nothing special but fine), and a super duper high end prospect for a serious, though limited controlled, mlb star in his prime... Im on the Houston side, but i'm not capable of trading prospects, PDS🤷♂️🤦♂️😥🤷♂️
I think Houston and the Cubs made out if Paredes continues to be the extreme pull hitter he has been the last couple of years. Cubs get a superstar for a year while moving someone that is going to be subpar offensively at Wrigley. Everything you said about Houston's return, with the potential for Paredes to put up much higher offensive numbers with his home games in Houston.
MLBTR had the best summary of the trade noting that the Cubs had traded 3 players to get Isaac Paredes from TB at the 2024 Trade Deadline, and now added Cam Smith and Hayden Wesneski with Paredes so losing 5 players to get Tucker who only has one year left before FA?
How often can you trade for a 5 WAR player though? I like Houston’s return but I also like it (or as a Pirates fan dislike it) from the Cubs end, especially since they have the resources to extend Tucker.
Much of how the trade is perceived might depend on how one looks at Smith—on the one hand players drafted outside of the top 10 or so rarely become impact players so using such a player as a centerpiece of a trade that can make you division favorites is a good use of resources. Think of the hypothetical that teams could trade draft picks—who wouldn’t include a 14th pick for a player like Tucker? OTOH, he did get off to a great start. If I had a third hand, though, I’d point out that that great start was paired with the Cubs staff being able to better evaluate how his skills will translate to the majors.
I initially looked at it as the Cubs 2024 first round draft pick Cam Smith (who hit over .300 with 7 homers in 100 plus at bats in the minors) for one of the best one year rentals you are going to find. Paredes was so bad the second half of the year, I honestly think the Cubs just wanted him off the roster. I think we all forgot that Paredes was very good for a year and a half before that. 2023 he hit 31 homers 98 rbis and an .840 ops. First half of 2024 earned him a trip to the all-star game. What Paredes the Astros get might be the biggest question mark.
Another part of this is that when you have the Cubs' revenue stream, you owe it to your fans to win now and this was clearly a win-now move. So, good for them.
A similar move for the Pirates wouldn't make nearly as much sense, though with the Skenes clock ticking, we'll likely need that all-in mentality sometime in the next few years.
I've not accepted that yet. A six-year deal at something like $100 MM (next two years are at league minimum, then arb salaries of roughly 14, 21, 28, and then 35 for that one FA year) seems like a win-win--Skenes gets security yet still reaches FA at age 28 which would have a very minimal effect on his earning power. Maybe we could even buy out a second FA year. If this deal is a bit light, bump it up by $5-10MM.
Yes, Paredes is very interesting with three years of control with reasonable potential of being a 3 WAR player in each of those years.
My initial opinion was similar to what the guys at ESPN wrote later--I liked it from the Cubs side but it should be acknowledged that if you factor in trade values, it clearly favors the Astros.
Houston is playing the long game, Cubs the short (with the hope of an extention). Paredes should benefit playing his home games in Houston compared to Chicago. His extreme pull tendencies might play up there.
I guess my expectation is at this point Tucker will test the open market especially after the Soto signing (he is not Soto but very very good). I also am guessing unless things go south he will sound like Soto (I love the Yankees or here the Cubs) but it won't truly mean much. While Cubs seem to have the resources they certainly haven't played nearly as much in the big signings as one would think they could and if Yankees want Tucker.. adios Chicago. I guess I really see it as a one year acquisition.
This is my guess too, but having Tucker this year should improve their chances. Plus, Cohen’s ridiculous spending may not be a factor for Tucker, though I can easily see the other NYC team treating Tucker as their plan b—save a few hundred million and still get within a WAR or two of what Soto provides.
The Cubs still will find a way to be mediocre. They are amazing in their capacity to field a good-looking roster on paper, and then get the absolute minimum from each player.
They underperformed so badly last year. I know that Bellinger was incognito for 2 months with broken ribs, and they were running Hendricks out there every 5th day all season, but still. You had a good rotation (outside of Hendricks), a bullpen that was not awful (though not great), Suzuki, Swanson, Happ, Busch, Hoerner... . That team should not have been .500.
They'd probably give him 2 or 3 starts a week in the corners, and let the person not playing DH. That'd be my guess, unless they get someone they are specifically targeting to improve their team. They're actively trying to win instead of hoping too lol.
What would the Tucker deal have looked like for the Pirates? I don't know other teams' prospects so I can't tell how expensive this would have been in mirror-world where the Pirates try something big.
Woulda been something like K Hayes, Mlodzinski, Konnor Griffin.
No excuse for us not pulling the trigger on this
Given the value of Paredes, it’s hard to see how we could have matched the offer without including Termarr, Konnor Griffin or Bubba Chandler. Of course, Houston might have rejected the offer anyways because they may have wanted a piece they could plug and play right away like Paredes.
Not exactly, but maybe something like Termarr Johnson, Bailey Falter and Kiner-Falefa. (I struggle finding a comp for Paredes.)
Well we dont have an MLB player to send on the level of Parades but considering they wanted a package with Gil from the yankees it sounds like Jones plus more would have been the start for us.
Sounds like that may have been the whispers about Jones on the trade market…
Don't like the Cubs with Tucker but maybe it's just one season? There is some chatter behind "Curt Flood for the HOF" out there. There is no doubt his career changed baseball forever with the advent of free agency. What is sad, in my opinion, is that Flood simply didn't want to leave St. Louis. He wanted the freedom to choose who he played for. Imagine a world where an Andre Dawson type free agent (I want to play for you, Cubs, so here is a blank contract!) was the norm instead of money-grabbers. Maybe the Pirates would still be the undesirable team but maybe the Dodgers/Yankees/Mets, etc. wouldn't always be the prime destination for superstars. Just a thought...
The Pirates are quietly going about building a strong nucleus of Middle of the Order Hitters to complement a Top 5 MLB Rotation. Reynolds and Cruz led the way in 2024 and adding Spencer Horwitz solidifies the order. If Matt Hague can get IKF to become the bat he was at Toronto, that adds another solid contributor at SS. Endy Rodriguez, before his injury, was a solid .268/.356/.415/.771 OPS, with an 11.4% BB/14.9% SO rate at AAA in 2024. He's been an excellent hitter ever since we got him from the Mets.
What do we get from Ke'Bryan Hayes who is signed for pennies for the next 5 years plus an Option year? Can he return to 2024 form? What do we have in Nick Yorke? I am sure we will have a Nick at second base - which one? Can Jack Suwinski return to 2024 Slugging of .454? What do we get from Billy Cook? Can Sammy Siani take that confidence from the AFL to AAA?
If the Pirates do not sign anybody else, I think there is enough talent in place right now to finish 10 above .500 rather than 10 below! If this group can come together, and Hague can maintain IKF and Horwitz at their Jays numbers and break through with Suwinski and others, then there is hope!
I thought going into the off season that we would see at least 3 MI's and 3 Pitchers involved in trades. We have met the number of Pitchers in one trade, but we still have a small boatload of MI's we can offer. Nobody asking?
If the Pirates do not sign anybody else, I think there is enough talent in place right now to finish 10 above .500 rather than 10 below!—- not a chance in hell. We lost a starting pitcher and a left-handed reliever, and we gained a first baseman. And you think we’re gonna be 10 games above 500. lol
IMO, they need two legit bats on top of the hopium associated with all the guys that underperformed last year. We acquired an unproven, platoon bat; that’s one-half of a legit bat. We have a long ways to go…
If Hayes doesn’t have some European back procedure, then there is no hope for him. This is still a very weak hitting team and mediocre to bad defense that will keep them from winning enough games to be playoff contenders. If management will not spend to get bats here, then this should be the last straw for Pirates fans. The pirates have the makings of a top 5 NL rotation with no help offensively or defensively. It’s getting to be a joke now…
What does that even mean, last straw? We riot? We what? It’s baseball. We can’t do anything but watch or not watch.
Exactly it genius! Stop going to games, stop watching it on tv and stop buying merchandise. It’s that simple.
maybe even stop posting on blogs?
Maybe read the whole thread, rather than hyper focus on two words and a sarcastic response.
The point is simple. The pirates have a window. They need to take advantage of it. It would seem difficult for fans to show up in the future if the Skenes window is a failure.
Dang. Is this Bucs Dugout? What a joke.
I don't have much hope for Suwinski, Hank or Hayes. I've never liked Hayes' swing. They all seem like level-headed, hard working dudes, so I hope I'm wrong and they crush it. I also hope that Triolo has spent the off-season working on his glutes, and comes to ST with the azzzzz required to hit for more power. Also hope the Pirates somehow find a legit OF bat....
Crazy the dude was 0-5 with over 4 era and was still about a win over replacement. I don't think I will ever understand the advanced metrics. Mainly because I will never try. Let y'all do it and translate it to me.
MLB lists durbin at 5 ft 6.in, Id bet he walks a lot.
bWAR mainly looks at era
fWAR mainly looks at fip
FIP takes the luck factor out.
WAR likes pitchers with swing-and-miss. It likes to credit the defensive player with some value for defensive putouts, which reduces the pitcher value. There is some sense in it, but I think that, in general, WAR between pitchers and position players is incomparable because WAR undervalues pitchers in general (not just pitch-to-contact guys).
It should like pitchers with swing and miss.
There’s a certain luck factor with a low era guy, with low k rates. The more a pitcher lets a hitter put the ball in play, the % of balls finding holes goes up. Obviously, when you’re striking hitters out, you don’t need to rely on fielders being where the ball is hit.
Bellinger for Hayes fantasy is still alive and gaining momentum, even if it is in my head!
Boy a healthy Hayes would have been a seductive trade chip, but of course we sign the one MLB legacy kid with some core injury, thanks god... Anyways, you say fantasy so I know you are having fun, with a tad of hope, but Bellinger is costly and injury risky himself, so, so, you made me investigate mate🤷♂️🤣
Ted, you get me!
I find that Tucker trade compelling, Houston gets a fine young mlb producing player, a serviceable swingman reliever (nothing special but fine), and a super duper high end prospect for a serious, though limited controlled, mlb star in his prime... Im on the Houston side, but i'm not capable of trading prospects, PDS🤷♂️🤦♂️😥🤷♂️
I think Houston and the Cubs made out if Paredes continues to be the extreme pull hitter he has been the last couple of years. Cubs get a superstar for a year while moving someone that is going to be subpar offensively at Wrigley. Everything you said about Houston's return, with the potential for Paredes to put up much higher offensive numbers with his home games in Houston.
MLBTR had the best summary of the trade noting that the Cubs had traded 3 players to get Isaac Paredes from TB at the 2024 Trade Deadline, and now added Cam Smith and Hayden Wesneski with Paredes so losing 5 players to get Tucker who only has one year left before FA?
How often can you trade for a 5 WAR player though? I like Houston’s return but I also like it (or as a Pirates fan dislike it) from the Cubs end, especially since they have the resources to extend Tucker.
Much of how the trade is perceived might depend on how one looks at Smith—on the one hand players drafted outside of the top 10 or so rarely become impact players so using such a player as a centerpiece of a trade that can make you division favorites is a good use of resources. Think of the hypothetical that teams could trade draft picks—who wouldn’t include a 14th pick for a player like Tucker? OTOH, he did get off to a great start. If I had a third hand, though, I’d point out that that great start was paired with the Cubs staff being able to better evaluate how his skills will translate to the majors.
I initially looked at it as the Cubs 2024 first round draft pick Cam Smith (who hit over .300 with 7 homers in 100 plus at bats in the minors) for one of the best one year rentals you are going to find. Paredes was so bad the second half of the year, I honestly think the Cubs just wanted him off the roster. I think we all forgot that Paredes was very good for a year and a half before that. 2023 he hit 31 homers 98 rbis and an .840 ops. First half of 2024 earned him a trip to the all-star game. What Paredes the Astros get might be the biggest question mark.
Another part of this is that when you have the Cubs' revenue stream, you owe it to your fans to win now and this was clearly a win-now move. So, good for them.
A similar move for the Pirates wouldn't make nearly as much sense, though with the Skenes clock ticking, we'll likely need that all-in mentality sometime in the next few years.
Have we all accepted that the Pirates can't extend Skenes? I would assume every day gets a little harder, unless he has some big injury.
I've not accepted that yet. A six-year deal at something like $100 MM (next two years are at league minimum, then arb salaries of roughly 14, 21, 28, and then 35 for that one FA year) seems like a win-win--Skenes gets security yet still reaches FA at age 28 which would have a very minimal effect on his earning power. Maybe we could even buy out a second FA year. If this deal is a bit light, bump it up by $5-10MM.
But of course Nutting...
Yes, Paredes is very interesting with three years of control with reasonable potential of being a 3 WAR player in each of those years.
My initial opinion was similar to what the guys at ESPN wrote later--I liked it from the Cubs side but it should be acknowledged that if you factor in trade values, it clearly favors the Astros.
Houston is playing the long game, Cubs the short (with the hope of an extention). Paredes should benefit playing his home games in Houston compared to Chicago. His extreme pull tendencies might play up there.
I guess my expectation is at this point Tucker will test the open market especially after the Soto signing (he is not Soto but very very good). I also am guessing unless things go south he will sound like Soto (I love the Yankees or here the Cubs) but it won't truly mean much. While Cubs seem to have the resources they certainly haven't played nearly as much in the big signings as one would think they could and if Yankees want Tucker.. adios Chicago. I guess I really see it as a one year acquisition.
This is my guess too, but having Tucker this year should improve their chances. Plus, Cohen’s ridiculous spending may not be a factor for Tucker, though I can easily see the other NYC team treating Tucker as their plan b—save a few hundred million and still get within a WAR or two of what Soto provides.
The Cubs still will find a way to be mediocre. They are amazing in their capacity to field a good-looking roster on paper, and then get the absolute minimum from each player.
Mediocre might win the NL Central though and then who knows in the playoffs—they could get hot at the right time like the ‘23 WS teams.
If rest of the division was a lot better or even a lot worse, I don't think the Cubs make that trade.
They underperformed so badly last year. I know that Bellinger was incognito for 2 months with broken ribs, and they were running Hendricks out there every 5th day all season, but still. You had a good rotation (outside of Hendricks), a bullpen that was not awful (though not great), Suzuki, Swanson, Happ, Busch, Hoerner... . That team should not have been .500.
Yikes, but I guess you have to try to separate the two trades, but I get it🤷♂️🤷♂️
Some reports saying Bellinger to the Yankees, if so they'll keep Suzuki for spot work in right but primarily DH.
They'd probably give him 2 or 3 starts a week in the corners, and let the person not playing DH. That'd be my guess, unless they get someone they are specifically targeting to improve their team. They're actively trying to win instead of hoping too lol.
Wonder if they’d want to trade in division?