There is a 0% chance that the Pirates sign Bellinger. Everything that he did last year runs counter to the Cherington/Haines/Fangraphs theory of hitting.
I would be all over Clevinger, give him a two or three year multi. He’s the best pitcher of that group as we stand here today, age and cost excluded. He’s a solid three but steps right in to become your two. There must be legal issues holding back his signing; crickets all off-season.
Definitely more for harrington, skenes will be after super 2 if not later i would guess. Jones is a bit of a wildcard, probably as soon as hes fooling AAA hitters regularly. Mike burrows and brubs are probably just as early as any of them
Jared Jones pitched very well at AA for 10 starts and 44 IP, 2.30 ERA, 10.4/3.8 K/BB/9. He was then promoted to AAA where he started another 15 games, 82 IP, 4.72 ERA, 10.9/3.7 K/BB/9.
My initial thought was that he was probably tiring at AAA and that was the reason for the high ERA. so I went to his last 3 starts in 2023 at AAA and they were against Toledo where he got a win for 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4K/1BB. His next start was against Omaha where he got a ND for 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 8K/1BB, His last start of the season he took a loss for 4.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 6K/2BB. Last 3 starts 17.2 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 18K/4BB, 1.02 ERA. IMHO, there is no reason for keeping him at AAA in 2024.
I don’t think we see burrows in the majors this year unless it’s in September and in relief. I wouldn’t count on brubaker as a rotation guy either but could see him being thrown into an opener or long relief role. Guys aren’t usually themselves until the second year after TJ. But hey I wouldn’t mind if both came back earlier.
Does frelick have any infield experience? If asking him to make such a big positional change, sounds like the brewers are doing it right but giving him the offseason and also extra coaching that he needs, ahem henry davis. Seems like a huge change for the guy to take on but it helps their roster work through a current surplus and aid in a position of need
CSN shouldn’t have been let go, but he was. Now that he’s available again, and Pirates theoretically have an opening on their 40-man roster for him, he should be brought back, but he won’t.
A guy I went from shaking my head at (in the beginning of 2023) to the the .400 hitting RBI machine the last month of 2023. It just seems like the wrong time to give up on him. Maybe the Pirates could pay him a few extra dollars to take a minor league contract, but they probably won't.
What gets me is not they DFA guys like Andujar and CSB, but they send them to the minors and wait until they put up big numbers, have success..... then DFA them.
I have Peguero as the favorite to win the 2B job, Gonzales to make the team as a 2B/SS backup, and Bae as the 26th man on the roster. An injury or late signing could affect that. I have Palacios as the 27th man.
Yesterday's infield practice had Nick, Bae and Termarr at second. Alika and Cheng at short. Key and Triolo at third. Other infielders working on something else. This probably means nothing, but I personally like Triolo as a utility guy.
Yesterday was my first day there. I didn't see him, but I am pretty sure he was there on Friday. He might have been in the weight room or working on something else. I did see Jack and Cruz take simulated at bats against Keller which was pretty cool.
Did Triolo get traded and I missed it? If not, he’s definitely a player who is a contender for the position. Nobody should be surprised if he ends up as starting 2B on OD.
The glove is undisputed. However, his Statcast numbers weren’t very promising despite a small-ish sample size. All expected stats were average to below average, below average to poor EV, below average to poor barrel and hard hit %, and below average to poor k rate. About the only positive was an above average BB rate. He definitely has a lot to prove if he wants to be a starter, same as all the other candidates at 2B.
He definitely gets a start on Sundays at 3B when Key gets a day off. I would guess that he prob gets another start during the week at 2B and 1B, maybe even SS, but he likely becomes your late inning defensive replacement in the infield, mostly on the right side. How he handles this role will likely determine his playing time and position as the season unfolds.
I look at his .298 average, in a half-season rookie year, WITH a. Golf Glove in the minors, and I see a guy who needs to start in 2024 - not ride the bench in a utility role
I see a guy with an xBA of .254, who also outperformed his xwOBA by 26 bps, and think the regression will not be pretty. I don’t think there a player in the game that has consistently outperformed his xStats, outcomes can be misleading.
I’m with you about playing every day, just not necessarily at one position. The bat he exhibited in the latter stages of last season certainly is worthy of more than a reserve role.
I know everyone is all in on Triolo and I like him too, not sure this 26 year old has the same upside as some of the young guys for an everyday role. A .298 hitter with little pop I see as a perfect number two hitter, but he struck out over 30% percent of the time. (That' even more than Nick or Liover). Utility role is my vote.
He was finally getting to his raw power the last few weeks of the season. An increase in power and cutting back on the swing and miss, he'll force them into a shot at 2nd or a close to everyday super utility role.
Jackson Chourio was signed for $1.8 mil by the Brewers in 2021 out of Venezuela. The Pirates were always more inclined to sign IFA's out of the DR, and have recently opened up opportunities for players out of the Far East (Bae, Shim, Chen, Cheng). Over the past two years they seem to be signing more players out of Venezuela, but are probably still well behind 5 or 6 MLB teams who have worked Venezuela for years.
Gotta like the Brewers. They signed Chourio for the big bucks to play CF and their new manager calls a former player, Dustin Pedroia, to work with Sal Frelick, their CF in 2023, to possibly get him prepped to play 2B/3B in 2024. Nice to know this kind of stuff still exists in today's game.
In 2023, BC extended the contract of our manager - was that a one year extension? I looked in Cot's and all they have is that Shelton was extended - should this be a secret?
The Brewers just seem to do about everything right. We had our chance to bring in someone to do things the Brewers way, but Nutting opted for Williams and Williams, coming from hockey, had to rely on a search firm and search firms like safe hires instead of inspired hires.
I think Nutting is limited on who he can hire because of his personal restrictions he gives the spending team. The Pirates are only allowed to spend like the Brewers when the window of opportunity for winning opens.
The “economics” are considerably different between the two clubs. The Brewers draw about 1 million more in attendance per year, and they receive roughly $20m per year in additional parking revenues. Add those together and that’s a $70m delta, which is likely in line with the difference in payrolls.
A couple thoughts come to mind in response to your reasonable post.
First, how much of that 1 million difference in attendance is due to stadium (indoors, size), and how much is due to fan attitude towards ownership?
Second, there’s no doubt Pirates would spend more if they had more revenue streams (parking, bars, restaurants, hotels, etc) like many MLB teams enjoy.
I remember hearing there are discussions with city officials about developing a ballpark business area in near future. Hopefully this comes to fruition, as it is best chance for Pirates to climb out of bottom quadrant of payroll.
IMO the reason the Brewers draw more fans on a consistent basis has more to do with an aggregate spend of entertainment dollars divided by two professional sports franchises instead of three. I saw something recently about someone commissioning a study to see if the city could support an NBA franchise; that’s completely asinine as they have trouble supporting two.
The Pirates would have almost nothing to do with a ballpark business area unless they purchased the land and subsequently developed it. There’s about a zero chance of this happening. Any development would be private in nature, and the corresponding rise in property tax revenues would go back to the city to offset the original cost of PNC Park and Acrisure Stadium.
Seems I heard an interview or maybe it was a NS9 podcast with Fort last year in which he spoke about this type of new revenue stream for BN. Then again, I may be misremembering.
I’m not sure the last time you visited the north shore but there’s new bars, hotels etc all over. The area has really built up over the years. There’s a lot to do in that area…science center is right next door, downtown is a walk across the Clemente away. Compare it to the brewers stadium where it’s literally off an interstate with nothing around but a parking lot.
No comparison; the North Shore is light years ahead of Miller Park. The issue is that doesn’t really impact the Pirates whatsoever. They collect no rents, and all tax revenues go back to the city. The team has to own the land and/or development rights to economically benefit.
Last time that I was in Pittsburgh (sometime around 2010), the area around PNC was coming along very nicely. I am glad to hear progress has continued. It really is one of the nicer parts of town that should be developed.
I'm pretty skeptical that we'll spend like the Brewers even when the window opens. Many organizations would look at a core of Hayes, Reynolds, Cruz, Suwinski, Bednar, and Keller, with top 100 pitching prospects ready as soon as June and at least see the window cracked.
thinking that this is the bullpen we end up starting the eyar with
Bednar
Holderman
Mlodzinski
Moreta
Chapman
Borucki
Falter
Honeywell
Probably Contreras for Honeywell, unless Contreras makes the rotation.
Do you stretch Honeywell out in AAA?
Maybe, if he's not on the 40 man there's more flexibility.
i have Contreras and Priester opening the year in the rotation
sources saying Pirates in on Bellinger for a one year deal
both parties interested in silencing critics
when can he be signed without losing a draft pick?
Like June or July
oh I thought it was then end of spring training
well regardless, its worth it to trade the 26th first round draft pick
It'll be expensive, somewhere between $30mil and $35mil for a year.
2023 qualifying offer amount was $20.325
So for $25mil we can have this dude patrol centerfield and first base?
He wants $25mil AAV on a longterm deal, over 8 years. A one year deal is going to cost a lot more.
I wouldn't be upset if they pulled it off though. Maybe 2 years at $60mil. 30 each
There is a 0% chance that the Pirates sign Bellinger. Everything that he did last year runs counter to the Cherington/Haines/Fangraphs theory of hitting.
dude looks like your boy Mac Miller
Marlin starting pitchers getting hurt
Giving Priester a shot > Cabrera > Lorenzon > Ryu > Clevinger > Syndergaard
I would be all over Clevinger, give him a two or three year multi. He’s the best pitcher of that group as we stand here today, age and cost excluded. He’s a solid three but steps right in to become your two. There must be legal issues holding back his signing; crickets all off-season.
also, what is it, like three months max until Skenes, Jones and Harrington are ready to make their way to the majors?
Definitely more for harrington, skenes will be after super 2 if not later i would guess. Jones is a bit of a wildcard, probably as soon as hes fooling AAA hitters regularly. Mike burrows and brubs are probably just as early as any of them
Jared Jones pitched very well at AA for 10 starts and 44 IP, 2.30 ERA, 10.4/3.8 K/BB/9. He was then promoted to AAA where he started another 15 games, 82 IP, 4.72 ERA, 10.9/3.7 K/BB/9.
My initial thought was that he was probably tiring at AAA and that was the reason for the high ERA. so I went to his last 3 starts in 2023 at AAA and they were against Toledo where he got a win for 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4K/1BB. His next start was against Omaha where he got a ND for 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 8K/1BB, His last start of the season he took a loss for 4.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 6K/2BB. Last 3 starts 17.2 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 18K/4BB, 1.02 ERA. IMHO, there is no reason for keeping him at AAA in 2024.
I don’t think we see burrows in the majors this year unless it’s in September and in relief. I wouldn’t count on brubaker as a rotation guy either but could see him being thrown into an opener or long relief role. Guys aren’t usually themselves until the second year after TJ. But hey I wouldn’t mind if both came back earlier.
So, no pre-writes this week?
None that have been released yet!
Damn, how else are we gonna find out which guy they're not signing?
Does frelick have any infield experience? If asking him to make such a big positional change, sounds like the brewers are doing it right but giving him the offseason and also extra coaching that he needs, ahem henry davis. Seems like a huge change for the guy to take on but it helps their roster work through a current surplus and aid in a position of need
CSN shouldn’t have been let go, but he was. Now that he’s available again, and Pirates theoretically have an opening on their 40-man roster for him, he should be brought back, but he won’t.
A guy I went from shaking my head at (in the beginning of 2023) to the the .400 hitting RBI machine the last month of 2023. It just seems like the wrong time to give up on him. Maybe the Pirates could pay him a few extra dollars to take a minor league contract, but they probably won't.
Especially when you consider they aren’t swimming in OF’s.
What gets me is not they DFA guys like Andujar and CSB, but they send them to the minors and wait until they put up big numbers, have success..... then DFA them.
I’m a bit surprised Anderson is still around, figured he was retired. Hopefully he is not needed and if we do he has a good showing.
I thought Grandal had retired. That doesn't stop the Pirates in their thrift store shopping.
He’s this years Jerad Eickhoff.
Now all he needs to do is bring back his season from 7 years ago. 140 plus innings, 12-4 record and an ERA under 3. Is that asking for too much?
Hanging on by a thread. It very well may be over for him, but I don’t blame him for trying to squeeze every last drop out of that arm.
The Statcast data isn’t encouraging. Since 2020 his fastball has been a batting practice pitch.
If he’s starting games for Pirates this season, we better pray the wind is blowing in HARD!
Today it gets interesting.
.
Second Basemen
Liover Peguero…….90%
Nick Gonzales……..80%
Ji-Hwan Bae………..60%
Tsung-Che Cheng….0%
Termarr Johnson…….0%
.
I have Peguero as the favorite to win the 2B job, Gonzales to make the team as a 2B/SS backup, and Bae as the 26th man on the roster. An injury or late signing could affect that. I have Palacios as the 27th man.
Yesterday's infield practice had Nick, Bae and Termarr at second. Alika and Cheng at short. Key and Triolo at third. Other infielders working on something else. This probably means nothing, but I personally like Triolo as a utility guy.
Do you know if peggy was around?
Yesterday was my first day there. I didn't see him, but I am pretty sure he was there on Friday. He might have been in the weight room or working on something else. I did see Jack and Cruz take simulated at bats against Keller which was pretty cool.
Great stuff, thanks for sharing! Was this at pirate city?
Yes, it was at Pirate City. I feel 50 years younger there.
Did Triolo get traded and I missed it? If not, he’s definitely a player who is a contender for the position. Nobody should be surprised if he ends up as starting 2B on OD.
I think Triolo is actually 1st in line by some of the comments of of BC and DS.
Triolo hit .298 in his rookie half-season, and carries a minor league Gold Glove.
He should play EVERY day at 2B OR shortstop, if Oneil cannot make every simple throw to 1B
The glove is undisputed. However, his Statcast numbers weren’t very promising despite a small-ish sample size. All expected stats were average to below average, below average to poor EV, below average to poor barrel and hard hit %, and below average to poor k rate. About the only positive was an above average BB rate. He definitely has a lot to prove if he wants to be a starter, same as all the other candidates at 2B.
He definitely gets a start on Sundays at 3B when Key gets a day off. I would guess that he prob gets another start during the week at 2B and 1B, maybe even SS, but he likely becomes your late inning defensive replacement in the infield, mostly on the right side. How he handles this role will likely determine his playing time and position as the season unfolds.
I look at his .298 average, in a half-season rookie year, WITH a. Golf Glove in the minors, and I see a guy who needs to start in 2024 - not ride the bench in a utility role
I see a guy with an xBA of .254, who also outperformed his xwOBA by 26 bps, and think the regression will not be pretty. I don’t think there a player in the game that has consistently outperformed his xStats, outcomes can be misleading.
I’m with you about playing every day, just not necessarily at one position. The bat he exhibited in the latter stages of last season certainly is worthy of more than a reserve role.
I know everyone is all in on Triolo and I like him too, not sure this 26 year old has the same upside as some of the young guys for an everyday role. A .298 hitter with little pop I see as a perfect number two hitter, but he struck out over 30% percent of the time. (That' even more than Nick or Liover). Utility role is my vote.
He was finally getting to his raw power the last few weeks of the season. An increase in power and cutting back on the swing and miss, he'll force them into a shot at 2nd or a close to everyday super utility role.
Jackson Chourio was signed for $1.8 mil by the Brewers in 2021 out of Venezuela. The Pirates were always more inclined to sign IFA's out of the DR, and have recently opened up opportunities for players out of the Far East (Bae, Shim, Chen, Cheng). Over the past two years they seem to be signing more players out of Venezuela, but are probably still well behind 5 or 6 MLB teams who have worked Venezuela for years.
Gotta like the Brewers. They signed Chourio for the big bucks to play CF and their new manager calls a former player, Dustin Pedroia, to work with Sal Frelick, their CF in 2023, to possibly get him prepped to play 2B/3B in 2024. Nice to know this kind of stuff still exists in today's game.
In 2023, BC extended the contract of our manager - was that a one year extension? I looked in Cot's and all they have is that Shelton was extended - should this be a secret?
The Brewers just seem to do about everything right. We had our chance to bring in someone to do things the Brewers way, but Nutting opted for Williams and Williams, coming from hockey, had to rely on a search firm and search firms like safe hires instead of inspired hires.
Maybe not everything right…looks like we may have dodged a Sánchez bullet. He hasn’t reported to camp yet, and nobody is saying anything about it.
I think Nutting is limited on who he can hire because of his personal restrictions he gives the spending team. The Pirates are only allowed to spend like the Brewers when the window of opportunity for winning opens.
The “economics” are considerably different between the two clubs. The Brewers draw about 1 million more in attendance per year, and they receive roughly $20m per year in additional parking revenues. Add those together and that’s a $70m delta, which is likely in line with the difference in payrolls.
I can confirm the Brewers can get your money when it comes to parking,especially the game where the rates are higher.
A couple thoughts come to mind in response to your reasonable post.
First, how much of that 1 million difference in attendance is due to stadium (indoors, size), and how much is due to fan attitude towards ownership?
Second, there’s no doubt Pirates would spend more if they had more revenue streams (parking, bars, restaurants, hotels, etc) like many MLB teams enjoy.
I remember hearing there are discussions with city officials about developing a ballpark business area in near future. Hopefully this comes to fruition, as it is best chance for Pirates to climb out of bottom quadrant of payroll.
IMO the reason the Brewers draw more fans on a consistent basis has more to do with an aggregate spend of entertainment dollars divided by two professional sports franchises instead of three. I saw something recently about someone commissioning a study to see if the city could support an NBA franchise; that’s completely asinine as they have trouble supporting two.
The Pirates would have almost nothing to do with a ballpark business area unless they purchased the land and subsequently developed it. There’s about a zero chance of this happening. Any development would be private in nature, and the corresponding rise in property tax revenues would go back to the city to offset the original cost of PNC Park and Acrisure Stadium.
Seems I heard an interview or maybe it was a NS9 podcast with Fort last year in which he spoke about this type of new revenue stream for BN. Then again, I may be misremembering.
I’m not sure the last time you visited the north shore but there’s new bars, hotels etc all over. The area has really built up over the years. There’s a lot to do in that area…science center is right next door, downtown is a walk across the Clemente away. Compare it to the brewers stadium where it’s literally off an interstate with nothing around but a parking lot.
The buildup around PNC park isn’t the problem... The fact the Pirates don’t own any of it is.
No comparison; the North Shore is light years ahead of Miller Park. The issue is that doesn’t really impact the Pirates whatsoever. They collect no rents, and all tax revenues go back to the city. The team has to own the land and/or development rights to economically benefit.
Last time that I was in Pittsburgh (sometime around 2010), the area around PNC was coming along very nicely. I am glad to hear progress has continued. It really is one of the nicer parts of town that should be developed.
I'm pretty skeptical that we'll spend like the Brewers even when the window opens. Many organizations would look at a core of Hayes, Reynolds, Cruz, Suwinski, Bednar, and Keller, with top 100 pitching prospects ready as soon as June and at least see the window cracked.
My only hope is the Pirates spent like the Brewers for a 3 to 5 year window the last time we were competitive.