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MWT's avatar

The only way I trade Keller is if I get next year’s starting left fielder or shortstop in return.

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Bucsfan2023's avatar

Goal this trade deadline should be to acquire a glove first SS and a power hitting left handed, or switch hitting corner bat.

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MWT's avatar

If the bar was set at just a glove first SS I would trade IKF, keep Keller and just make Triolo the starting SS. Or call Clint Barmes and see what he’s up to.

It’s a seller’s market allegedly. Gotta aim higher, IMO.

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Bucsfan2023's avatar

I don’t mean a hitter quite that bad. Someone like Jose Caballero, who can give you a 90 wRC+.

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MWT's avatar

Yeah I certainly can’t disagree with that. I just think if you’re committed to Hayes at third going into next season, which I think they are (whether they want to be or not), then I think the best layout of this team has you having a shortstop with a little more hitting potential, even if it comes at the expense of defense to some degree.

This team overall struggles too much to produce offense, sometimes you have to find it in unconventional spots.

I actually think that was part of the rationale in sticking with IKF at short. Defense isn’t great statistically, but hits better than your average shortstop. He just isn’t the kind of hitter this team needs.

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Bucsfan2023's avatar

Well, I’ve never been a fan of Hayes and am hoping they move on, but point well taken if they are sticking with him there. Problem is, shortstops that can hit aren’t going to be cheap via trade or FA. Not sure how easily they can acquire that type of player, even with a nice chip like Keller.

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SouthernBuc's avatar

On the trade threads - my opinion. Only player in the organization who should not be listened on is Skenes. I am still all in on the Skenes 'window' which is 4 years max as I have never believed he would sign past his current free agency window. So we NEED a bold trader Jack GM and need to even see what Griffin would bring back... I am 100% serious. We will have a round one pick soon... what do they bring back next year. The Pirates (and other much better run lower echelon teams) need to embrace their opportunities. Griffin may become Mike Trout or he may get stumped in AAA or MLB. Crews to me is a great comp (and he may still make the Hall). He seemed unstoppable in the SEC for 3 years.. but oops MLB is much harder. Griffin is looking every bit as good as Crews IMO. So.. why trade him? Because IMO best case is he is ready in 2years and he could have MLB entry issues. So we don't reap those benefits until possibly Skenes next to last year. On paper he is the next big window but the current window is breaking before our eyes. We trade Cruz (even with his warts), Reynolds (not great this year but how do you replace him) and Keller (aren't we better with Keller AND Bubba not Bubba replacing Keller?). Net: you move the current decent not great players you get even worse and getting a AA or even AAA player(which to me is best case for trading players to teams competing for the playoffs) who 'look' ready is a dangerous game to play with only 4 Skenes years left. Finally... I use Griffin as the most extreme example and hope there are other avenues but feel we need to acknowledge to get the real talent that is needed NOW (2026) will take trading potentially top level talent. All the other expiring contracts are necessary to move to not lose them for nothing but at best they add to the 'depth' but not to the MLB team anytime soon.

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RetireNutting's avatar

Griffin is 19 and is thriving in an org with less than zero clue how to develop bats. Keep him!

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SouthernBuc's avatar

That was not my point but I get your comment If we want to embrace the Skenes window (Griffin may become better than Skenes or may become just good), then boldness is needed as this is NOT a good team. Pirates need a REAL middle of the order bat. Keller et al may bring a AA or AAA player(s) who look like they 'may' be good but that may be in 2027 as a best case scenario.. so there goes 2026 of Skenes career. Keeping Griffin is absolutely the preferred path but I feel because of his current success we may be a tad too optimistic. That is my Crews example. A lot of experts had Crews becoming a star FAST.. he has slightly stumbled upon MLB entry so let's cool are jets and consider ALL options. What if Griffin could bring back Roman Anthony right now (a hopeful and doubtful comment)? They must be bold!!!

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RetireNutting's avatar

I get the sentiment. We agree Cherington must go. He's thought of as the most conservative GM in the game by lots of folks.

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Anthony's avatar

Love the tools but not the player. I would be very open to moving him, just don’t trust BC to do it.

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WTM's avatar

Interesting piece. They attribute both Reynolds’ and Cruz’ problems with being too passive. Given the whole team’s passion for taking third strikes in key spots, it strikes a chord.

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NMR's avatar

Reynolds called strike rate is currently 0.4% higher than his career average.

zero. point. four.

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WTM's avatar

Could mean he’s passing up pitches he used to hit in favor of ones he doesn’t hit as well. Or it could mean zippity. I dunno. The more I look at this sort of data the less I think I understand.

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NMR's avatar

Cruz definitely strikes me as more of an issue but also oddly has his *highest* zone swing rate in June as his production tanked. I wouldn't call that a cause, more so that he's also chased the most this month.

Reynolds is just bizarre this year. 3rd highest differential between actual and expected wOBA in baseball.

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WTM's avatar

I haven’t checked in probably a couple weeks, but they’ve had three guys — Reynolds, Davis and Canario — who “ought” to be having good years but suck instead. The SS is big enough now that I doubt it’s just statistical noise, so there has to be something Statcast can’t see. Sometimes the results are just the results, I guess.

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NMR's avatar

i was curious so I checked...statcast says it takes 70 balls in play to "stabilize".

Also fwiw, Reynolds at -.067 is 20 points lower than any hitter with at least 500 PA in the last three years. Doesn't mean he'll catch all the way up, but still seems like something that'll approach a mean unless he physically gets worse...like Canario, who resolved the difference by actually sucking more.

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Aurorus Borealus's avatar

You can tell the article is not from Fangraphs. They would be apoplectic at the idea of anyone, ever being too passive at the plate. More than 1 swing per AB is verboten. Haines is their hero.

Nice to see that a few major publications are finally starting to note the damage that Cherington/Haines' hitting philosophy has done to the organization.

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Arky Wags's avatar

You keep saying this stuff about FG about them supporting that philosophy and I’m not sure I see it.

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NMR's avatar

why do you even bother at this point.

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Arky Wags's avatar

I want to know what Fangraphs did to AB!

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WTM's avatar

We should turn all this ire on Keith Law instead!

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RetireNutting's avatar

I hate watching the team hit. They take into terrible hitting counts across the board and have no two strike plan at all.

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StatsCbl's avatar

If it's just one player, I say trade him. When it is a team problem, I get a little gun-shy when it comes to trading the players.

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RetireNutting's avatar

Speaking of which, Cruz is not in the lineup today. Kelly says a day off to reset and making mechanical adjustments. I'm hoping a trade is in the works instead.

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Arky Wags's avatar

Trading him while he’s slumping and still their best regular would be monumentally foolish.

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RetireNutting's avatar

I'm not sure a swoon from end of April to June 27th should be characterized as a "slump".

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Arky Wags's avatar

Actually it’s less time than that. He’s been pretty crappy since he tweaked his back and returned on May 16.

Still. Dumb as hell to trade him now. Frustrating as he is.

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Anthony's avatar

Kind of depends on the return, probably has the highest trade value on the team outside of Skenes.

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RetireNutting's avatar

.176 .286 .315 line with a 69 wRC+ since May 1. The entire year he's put up a *28 wRC+* against LHP so everyone in the world knows he's a platoon player at best except our GM and manager. Not sure the value is going to go up much.

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Arky Wags's avatar

So you want Canario or Pham out there instead? I’d rather Cruz get the opportunity to learn and hit lefties since he’s learning and improved at CF markedly since moving out there.

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Aurorus Borealus's avatar

Selling low on Cruz would be on point for Cherington.

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WTM's avatar

Sell high, sell low . . . . Makes no difference when the halfwit GM’s iron rule is to buy low.

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Bucsfan2023's avatar

Yes and good luck constructing a capable offense any time in the near future without the upside of that bat.

If they are going to trade him (I doubt they will), they might as go all the way and embrace another 5 year plan.

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RetireNutting's avatar

Is the upside overstated? He's got a 28 wRC+ against LHP this year. 900 OPS in March/April dropped to .740 in May and is .457 in June. K rate has ballooned to like 36% in May/June. Hits the ball hard when he connects but we're part of 5 seasons in MLB in at this point and he's got a 13th percentile squared up rate nearly worst in the league k and whiff percentages.

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PirateRican21's avatar

Curious to know how you feel about Davis and no, it’s not a race thing, just how you view him and Cruz.

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RetireNutting's avatar

Davis hasn't produced but I see no lack of effort from him and at least his defense is solid behind the plate. If anything, he's pressing too hard. They both have good bat speed and barrel the ball but have terrible approaches. Davis doesn't have an oops-adventure-moment every third game that gives up unearned runs.

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StatsCbl's avatar

You just stated why his downside is so low. His upside is so high because he has hit the ball harder than any human and he leads the NL in stolen bases.

The way I see it, finding a more consistent player is not going to get the Pirates to the promised land. Therefore we need to hang on our hopes on Cruz getting better because the things he can do is off the chart.

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RetireNutting's avatar

He’s 27 in what, two months? He was pouting all over the field last week. He’s all tools and no ballplayer. Let someone else fall in love with his exit velocity.

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StatsCbl's avatar

You are tired of Cruz and ready to move on. I get it and not arguing with you about that.

But you again are stating his downside and why it is very low. It is more than just his exit velocity that gives him upside. I think if there is actual talent around him and on a team of good players in the future, you will see him pitched differently and a much better player than the garbage you have seen the last month. I still think he has a big upside and respect your opinion to disagree.

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SouthernBuc's avatar

He's better than Pham, Suwinski, Gorski, Bae, Frazier, Canario et al.. extremely low and pitiful bar I know.. .but if the goal is to compete in 2026 (I hope it is) then we need to keep the better player as even with a real GM it is hard to trade existing MLB players for immediate MLB help. So the idea is trade a low salaried Cruz (so no new Bob N money) and somehow replace his frustrating but still decent and sporadic production with somebody who doesn't exist? He is exasperating and I think we should all lower our expectations on his end product but he is still by far IMO the better path than any other options I see.

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Bucsfan2023's avatar

I don’t think so. I’d be more concerned about the strikeouts if he wasn’t walking and his chase rate was below average (think Julio Rodriguez). I’d also point out, because it seems like he’s been around forever, that this is only his second full year in the league.

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Aurorus Borealus's avatar

No more 5-year plans please. How about a plan for next year: to at least be competitive and not in the running with the Rockies to be the laughing stock of baseball.

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JRC21's avatar

Hey, AB —- speaking of the Rockies. Front page story in today’s Denver Post that Manfort has hired another one of his sons to oversee *all baseball operations*. So one son is the scouting director and now this son will be fully in charge of the whole baseball side of things.

As bad as Nutting is, it could be worse!

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Bucsfan2023's avatar

And don’t forget Arte Moreno. The circus in Denver distracts from that.

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Aurorus Borealus's avatar

That is why I don't even blame the Rockies GM and consider Cherington to be the worst GM in baseball. How can he function when all the major decisions are being made by ownership?

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Bucsfan2023's avatar

I agree. But trading Cruz would wave the white flag on at least a couple of years of baseball. They aren’t getting anyone like him back in a trade.

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Aurorus Borealus's avatar

Would they get less next year if Cruz's defensive metrics and hitting metrics improve? They would probably get more. Unless it's an obvious overpay, I don't see the point in trading Cruz at this point. Who is going to play CF?

Then again, i don't want Cherington trading anyone except IKF and Heaney.

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RetireNutting's avatar

I like Melkel's idea of reaching out to the Tigers. Meadows has been a disappointment in CF for them. Keller, Cruz and Bednar for Max Clark, Bryce Rainer and Josue Briceno is a fair trade on BTV.

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Aurorus Borealus's avatar

That's a lot of salary for the Tigers to take on. I doubt they would have that type of room in the budget. Also trading Keller, Cruz, and Bednar means they go into the tank for at least 2 more years in all likelihood.

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RetireNutting's avatar

Clark, Griffin and Rainer line up nicely together

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Aurorus Borealus's avatar

So... back to rebuilding and waiting for a pile of A-ball prospects to matriculate through the Pirates' fantastic developmental system and make the jump to The Show?

Color me skeptical that this is the best way to proceed, but if the Tigers are able to take on the salary, I can live it with... only if Cherington is fired in the offseason, and a new GM overhauls the developmental system and personnel.

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Melkel's avatar

So does Briceno, I'd try for the compA draft pick as well.

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RetireNutting's avatar

I tried that on BTV and it took us to "Minor Overpay" but if they love Cruz's statcast...

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Josh D's avatar

So how’s those trades working out for Cherington? Are Ortiz or Priester making those other franchises wish they never dealt with BC?

It took some time for me, but I’m finally drinking the WTM kool aid on BC. He’s a hack. This team is no better than the 2019 team he inherited. I still think he has a job, though, as long as he continues to accept the bull that Nutting gives him.

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Bucsfan2023's avatar

Welcome. Took me some time too… I started out supporting him and did so for a few years, and unfortunately came to WTM’s conclusion about 2 years ago. Hopefully they make a good hire in the offseason that allows to put all the GM talk behind us.

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Josh D's avatar

So what happened to Stratton? He was brought back so they could DFA him one more time? Who’s shoes did he piss in?

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Bianco599's avatar

If no one hears from me it's because I'm about to add a box to a bee hive that contains the meanest bees in the dirty South. Peace

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WTM's avatar

Like Africanized bees?

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Bianco599's avatar

Like I caught a swarm last year and they never quite took a shining to me. They are Italian like myself.

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StatsCbl's avatar

Buzz off then..... I mean good luck with your project and be safe.

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NMR's avatar

Darell Hicks-Gribble

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Bucsfan2023's avatar

Can’t believe no one liked this.

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NMR's avatar

RIP john redcorn.

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Bucsfan2023's avatar

Really tragic what happened there. And only a few days after he got shut out of the reunion event, and 6 months after his house burned down and he lost his dogs.

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Scott Kliesen's avatar

After listening to the NS9 podcast with Jim Callis, it sounds like Pirates will have their choice between numerous ALL-STAR or even HALL OF FAME players at #6. Not saying anything bad about Callis, but it’s just human nature to talk about upcoming players in every draft so glowingly.

This year, I don’t have a strong take on who should be chosen. I just hope it’s someone who develops into a good player for Pirates. If forced to choose, I suppose I would pick Irish since he appears to have the best hit/power combination, and Lord knows Pirates need a lot of that!

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Melkel's avatar

I think Irish is the safest college bat. I still like Hernandez, Willits, or one of the 3 college lefties at pick 6 (Assuming Holliday is already picked).

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Josh D's avatar

I’m not opposed to then picking another HS prodigy like Griffin, this year, are their any of them available? They could use an OF.

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Melkel's avatar

I like Josh Owens a lot, gives a Jackson Merrill vibe. He plays short but looks like a plus centerfielder. He might be available in the second round. He's just growing into his strength. 6'3" lefty hitting right hand throwing low 90's arm with plus plus speed.

Also like Hartshorn and Taitn Gray as corner outfielders, both switch hitting plus power with sneaky speed considering their size. Both had sprint speeds as good or better than Billy Carlson.

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JRC21's avatar

Melkel’s record on this stuff is pretty damn good. I forgot that you were recommending Roman Anthony.

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Joshua Johnson's avatar

I also would be fine with Carlson or JoJo.

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NMR's avatar

boy, i'd be pretty bummed if hernandez were still available and they passed. none of these bats are either safe or talented enough for me to pass an arm like that.

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Melkel's avatar

I'd be very bummed, Hernandez is right there with Holliday for me. I really like Willits and Parker a bit better than the lefties but wouldn't be bummed out if a lefty was the pick over them.

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PirateRican21's avatar

Skenes has about 3 more years, so his replacement.

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1979andCounting's avatar

Isn't there still a moratorium on trading recent draft picks......flip

an arm like Hernandez in one year? Sounds like a plan.

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JRC21's avatar

The restriction on trading drafted players has been lifted. You can’t literally trade a guy on the day you draft him (see the NBA), but you can trade him in the off season after the draft.

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1979andCounting's avatar

Yep, immediately after the World Series the new GM can do his magic!

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Arky Wags's avatar

Really hope the next CBA allows for trading of picks.

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Bianco599's avatar

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-mock-draft-june-26-2025

As soon as I saw today's rundown headline I thought of the Notorious BIG rap. Anyone else?

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NMR's avatar

no but now i want to exchange biggie lyrics

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Bianco599's avatar

Your Brew run run run. Your brew run run. That's what the brewers play when they go up against our Bucs.

You up. Mike dropped.

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NMR's avatar

NOW WE DRINK CHAMPAIGNE WHEN WE THRSTAY

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