Reasonably competent big leaguers who won't "block" any prospect worth a shot for nearly zero dollars spent. A watchable club that actually supports the young talent that matriculates to the show while still rebuilding young talent in the minor league ranks through veteran trades, drafts, and IFAs.
The fact that we're getting it in 2024 is I'm certain what's causing the consternation amongst fans more than the moves themselves.
With the draft lottery, I agree with you that it doesn’t make sense to run out truly awful teams. But in 2021, why? You want try to go get the top pick by having the worst record. I’ll throw another wrinkle in the mix, albeit one it doesn’t appear they are doing: by tanking in 2021, you should take that money saved by not signing anyone and hold it for a future season.
Thanks for the reply! Let's check off the easy one first:
This offseason - and every shred of evidence throughout the entirety of Nutting's ownership - undeniably proves that not one single penny will be "saved" and used in the future. Not implicating you here directly, but there's a sect of fan who swears Nutting cannot use any of his own money to fund the team because that would somehow magically alter the share of ownership AND he will definitely totally hoard profits from tanking years in order to spend during winning years. This is financially illiterate twice over.
As for why 2021, IMO as a fan, because they already got their one year to intentionally suck in 2020. If the entire pitch here is to somehow create a sustainable culture of winning then *by definition* you cannot accomplish that goal by tanking long enough to bank top-of-draft talent. If you're one of the exceptionally few tanking clubs to actually succeed, then you've got a 3-4 year window before you gotta figure out how to maintain that talent without the benefit of tanking.
As a boss, I would never hire a guy who pitches me on a plan that is by definition unsustainable.
Veterans actually have trade value for prospects. You can sign a decent veteran ballplayer and trade him for prospects. You can even... gasp... sign a veteran to a multi-year contract and if he performs well, you can actually trade him at any point in that contract for prospects. What is more, if you actually put a team on the field that might provide a modest amount of enjoyment for fans, you can sell tickets to the game. You can then use this ticket revenue in later seasons. Spend a little to make a little. Even without a lottery, tanking probably is not the optimal way to build a system.
Under the current system I’d agree with you. But, veterans with value A.) generally don’t want to sign with non-contending teams. and B.) trading the types of free agents a non-contending team can sign are going to be less valuable than a number 1 overall pick and its benefits. The Pirates got at least 3 top 100 prospects from having the first pick in 2021, and a possible generational talent in 2023. Good luck getting even 1 top prospect for a rental.
But Skenes came from a lottery pick. Without a lottery, Washington and Oakland go 1-2 and take Skenes and Crews. So, even when tanking, they only got Skenes because of the lottery. These 3 top 100 prospects have yet to generate anything in terms of actual wins at the MLB level. Meanwhile, a guy like Evan Carter, who would have been available to the Pirates even if they had had the best record in baseball, is tearing up the league and helping the Rangers win a championship. There are no sure things in baseball. It is not like other sports in that everyone can tell that a player will be a star by the age of 18 or 19.
💯 on the lottery. Which is why running out a 2021 type roster just doesn’t make sense. I was merely pointing the pre-lotto benefits to picking high.
Fair point about Evan Carter, but prep guys like Evan Carter are harder to sign without the higher draft pool as the quality prep players require overslot bonuses. Think Bubba Chandler. You also have to draft those guys in bulk because for every Evan Carter there’s ten Zach Von Rosenberg’s
Suwinski, Reynolds, Cruz, Bednar, Holderman, Oviedo, Peguero... what do all of these players have in common? These (with the exception of Peguero) were the guys, along with Hayes, responsible for the Pirates respectable 2nd half last year. To date, the Pirates have not added any significant talent to their major-league roster from all the tanking. We shall see if that changes, and it has to change soon if the Pirates are ever going to be competitive. But it is certainly possible to acquire decent players trading veterans for prospects.
I think this is very well stated NMR. Competency has never been unattainable and we probably should expect at least that much every year. Just disappointed that a year with winning record potentially is being filled with the goal of just competency
I'd run away from that as fast as I could. Love Varsho's D in CF/OF, but he just keeps dropping lower and lower in Batting, and who can tell about a pitcher who goes from one of the best in MLB in 2022 to one of the worst in MLB in 2023.
Jared Jones is a special pitcher who should be in the Pirate Rotation out of ST going into his age 23 season, and Ashcraft had some injury issues, but came out in 2023 finishing with 20 IP at AA, 1.35 ERA, 23K/5BB. He should be at AAA as a 24 year old to start the year, and then to MLB by about mid-season.
I am not so sure about Jones. According to the guys who watch him here and according to the pitch-data tracking sites, he was pretty much a 2-pitch guy down the stretch with Indianapolis. His fastball and slider seem like very nice pitches, but I don't think the 2 will be enough to carry him into a prominent place in the rotation. He will need to find a 3rd or even 4th pitch that has some ganas.
It may turn out that Perez moves to the pen and/or that Tellez moves to the bench, but they only signed because there is opportunity to start. The question will be how long of a leash they're given--hopefully not Hedges-long.
Apparently, they're in deep negotiations with Manaea and the Cutch deal is imminent. If they do this and sign a Bader or Taylor, I think I'd be ok with this. Although, I have a sneaking suspicion that they'll pull off some type of trade.
Lots of off-season left... really trying hard to be optimistic.
I'd be 100% on board with Manaea. If they did sign him, I would actually be comofrtable with what BC did to address the rotation. 1B is still a hole. Unfortunately, that won't be addressed with Tellez. They do need to add a legitimate CF. Hank will be catching more, so I assume a platoon of Suwinski/Olivares will handle one corner, and Reynolds the other. I'm not sure I'd want Bader playing everyday, but we could do worse. I would also be ok, not happy, but ok, if they acquire a legitimate corner OF and plan on having Reynolds/Suwinksi/Bae cover CF.
Someone mentioned (NMR) he hits the ball in the air a ton and it's pretty much all pull side. He might be that lefty fit we've been yearning for in PNC.
Interestingly, what Tellez cited in his interview about why he likes PNC is the batter's eye and the large gap in Left-Center, with the latter helping him to feel like he doesn't need to pull everything.
Optimistic Catch is my favorite Catch! I’ve always been intrigued by Manaea. He’s been erratic, but maybe there’s a bit more there. I’m admittedly more optimistic about those guys as opposed to finesse lefties like Marco though.
Manaea’s expected stats have been quite consistent. I think he would definitely benefit from pitching at PNC. I’d love for them to be bold and offer him something like 3/$35m.
Source on Manaea? That would be crazy to add a third lefty, but I couldn't complain if he joins Perez and Gonzales as our rotation upgrades. Too often we've put too many eggs in one basket, so having options would be a big plus.
And if they add Manaea, you're probably right that Falter would be the one DFA'd.
I know it’s a very stale subject, but this whole notion that he can’t spend money because of market size and revenue stream is just a flat out lie that keeps getting shoved down our throats and that many fans seem to have bought. If they’re so damn poor, show us your income and maybe then we’ll swallow it. They never will because it’s not true.
Can’t spend like the Dodgers? Okay, I get that but KC, which supposedly has the smallest market size in MLB, just spent over $30 million/yr and committed over $75 million to get Lugo and Wacha. There’s not much anyone can do about it other than to stop believing the lie and call them on it whenever possible. You’ll never embarrass or shame Nutting. A person has to have a conscience to feel those emotions, and he’s not burdened with one of those.
It's been a really disappointing offseason. I suppose I was stupid for hoping they would make moves to actually compete. With the acquisition of Marco and Perez, I suppose they're done adding to the rotation. Two reclamation projects when the market was flush with mid-level, competent starters is kind of a joke. Rowdy Tellez is awful.
Knowing what we know now with Endy, Mitch Garver would be a perfect addition to this team, being that he can catch and play 1B. An offseason that saw Garver, Bader, McCutchen, Wacha, and Gonzalez/Perez added would be within their means and make this team interesting.
When Huntington was at a similar stage, he added AJ, Martin and Liriano. BC adds Tellez, Marco and Perez. One of these is a serious approach. One isn’t.
The acquisition of AJ, Martin and Liriano was a big turning point for the Pirates success. All three of them had down years before the Pirates signed them. Martin hit .211 with the Yankees whil Burnett and Liriano were coming off seasons with ERAs in the fives. I don't think many of were too excited with the Burnett or Liriano acquistions at the time, but they were just what the doctor ordered. Martin was a great signing. I don't have much faith in what the Pirates have done with their offense this year, but am not going to rule out a comeback from any starting pitchers the Pirates sign.
Dramatic differences in ceiling. AJ, Martin and Liriano had 5-WAR seasons before Pgh, several in AJ’s and Martin’s cases. Martin had an 8-WAR year. BC goes for guys looking to “bounce back” to 1-2 WAR.
AJ created a lot of excitement. I was at Pirate City after he signed, before the bunt mishap. Biggest crowds I’ve seen there, due to him.
I guess my point is the Pirates have almost always looked for bargains on the starting pitching side. Guys they can bring back to what they used to be. And I can't argue your point that even though the strategy is the same, they seemed to have lowered the bar even more.
As far as what the Pirates have done on the offensive side, I am probably more upset about it than you are.
-Martin was a good get. He was solid when we got him and even better with the Pirates. I agree that the Pirates have not even tried to do that on any of their signings on offense under Cherington.
-Burnett was a rock star everywhere he went. He had his best season in 2009 with a WAR of 4.5, but followed that up with WARs of -.7 and 0. My expectations weren't too high when the Pirates got him. Even though, Marco has had only one eye-popping year with a WAR of 5.0, it just happened in 2022. I like the one year contract, but he will not attract fans to Pirates City. :)
-Liriano had his best season his rookie season with a WAR of 4.5 and in 2009 had a WAR of 4.2. The 2 seasons before the Pirates added him, he had WARS of -.3 and 0.2. I thought it was a weak signing at the time, similar to 2022 when the Pirates signed Jose Quintana who had two previous seasons with WARs over 5.
The only person I remember not liking the Martin signing was Dejan. He dumped all over Martin due to his batting average and compared it to Matt Morris. When folks started reminding him of it after Martin became a big success, he deleted the article.
The Russell Martin signing was refreshing in the way that it seemed like the Pirates were actually trying to win.
I am trying not to be judgemental anymore when the Pirates sign starting pitching. I didn't like the Burnett or Liriano acquistions. I was upset when they settled for Volquez or Happ. I was furious with Jose Quintana. Hill and Vince Velasquez seemed like jokes to me. Every one of those guys did better than what I expected, so I am trying to be a little optimstic with Martin and Marco. :)
I'm not happy with their approach (yet) but to be fair, you could equate Liriano and Perez. I was more excited about Liriano at the time, and he had two seasons with 4 bWAR (instead of just one that looks like an outlier), was younger, threw harder, etc., but he was also coming off of two poor seasons when we signed him.
My "yet" part is leaving the door open for an A.J.-type acquisition. Since overall Cherington's acquisitions seem to follow Huntington's playbook, though maybe not as effectively, and he keeps talking about trades, I hope my hope is justified.
The thing with Perez is the margin for error is incredibly thin with that k rate. Although, he induces grounders at a pretty good rate. I like him better than Marco.
Thing is, and I used to complain about this with Huntington, if you have pitch-to-contact guys (and Perez will generate a lot of soft contact since all 3 of his primary pitches: 2-seamer, cutter, and change have good movement), you really want to put as good a defense as possible behind them. Neither Huntington nor Cherington seem to consider defense an important part of baseball.
Were you a fan at the time of the early Huntington years?
A groundballing pitching staff backed by a quality infield defense that maximized shifting when only a handful of clubs were doing it is literally the story of the 2013-2015 years.
Huntington's distinct shift away from pitching to contact after 2016 also then didn't really require the same defensive rigor, so recency bias may be why you're forgetting about the enormous focus on defense through his most successful years.
I've been a fan since I was a child in the 1970s watching them play on a fuzzy black-and-white TV with bad reception, some 50 miles from Pittsburgh, that my grandma bought me. I don't think that anyone considered Pedro Alvarez (even pre-yips), Neal Walker. or Jung Ho Kang to be defensive wizards. It was OK, the infield defense, but this was not Pendleton, Smith, and Herr out there.
If they're done other than re-signing Cutch, it's disappointing. But they've also set themselves up that if they do make a big signing or trade, the offseason could look quite good. Imagine a trade bringing in a quality #2 pitcher. For the sake of illustration, let's say Cease though I expect the Dodgers or Braves, teams fully committed to winning in '24, would outbid us even if we are interested. But Cease, Keller, Perez, Gonzales, Ortiz/Priester/Contreras/Falter with Skenes, Bru, Jones, and Burrows ready as early as June is a rotation we could contend with.
However, Keller, Perez, Gonzales, and two of the four listed above has too many question marks for me to feel optimistic. It seems strange that one pitcher could have that kind of impact, but that's the way I feel.
Spot on, Scranton. BC and his regime are not serious people if they think this team is remotely positioned to contend for a playoff spot. Five years in and all we do is sign reclamation projects. Never a bold move. Never a commitment to actually winning. Very disappointed.
Hmm. My thinking sometimes is at the MLB level, the difference between the top and the bottom can often be very small... kind of the flick of a switch... Example would be the Pirates' hot start, midseason slump, and solid finish.
I think, and this might put me on Nutting's side, that high priced veterans are not worth what they're getting paid in real terms. That slightly better than fungible players can make a difference.
It appears that scoring runs should take care of itself this season as all our young Bucs begin to mature. Add Cruz and some experienced outfield and 1b bats and good platoons and suddenly, I'm not too concerned about scoring runs.
Adding STABILITY at first and in the OF is another part of gluing together a decent team.
Lefty in PNC is another good bet.
The Pirates had a winning record in bullpen games last year. Such games make it hard for the opponent to sort of know what's coming next and it keeps the opposing batters looking at fresh arms each time around and not having two or three looks at a pitcher in order to groove him.
A good starter should give you six innings. That's all I expect, with one or two times in a week maybe someone goes 7 or better. I feel like if Keller gets hurt, we're in trouble. But I also feel like we're gonna see some interesting starters making their debuts this season and next season should be fun without the fungible.
The Nats have a surplus of OF prospects. The Pirates have a surplus (supposedly) of pitching prospects. Seems like a good idea to pick up the phone and see about a prospect for prospect deal.
I think they would have to be content with just getting Hassell or Green for Ortiz and Nicky G. I think that I would prefer Green. Hassell has really struggled to lift off in AA.
I'd prefer Green as well, but Hassel, Green and Susana value have all dropped as well and Ortiz and NickyG, are at least on the doorstep to the majors. Green and Susana are struggling in low A. Their value has to be pretty low. Probably a one for one though
Generally speaking, I suspect that it is a good idea to trade guys before you DFA them, so that way the other team does not know that you have to trade them in the next 3 days. So far, Cherington has failed to grasp this simple concept.
The Pirates look like they will finalize the 2024 Rotation for less than $20 mil. Gonzales ($12 mil), Perez ($8 mil), and Keller ($6 mil) add up to $26 mil, but $8.750 mil of the Gonzales money is being offset by the Mariners and Braves. Even if they add 3 more of the guys from last year, they will not exceed $20 mil. PNC and the Pirates upgraded defense should help this group of SP's.
Nice interview of Rowdy Tellez on MLB today. Heading into his age 29 season, he is looking for a bounce-back to 2022 when he had 23 doubles, 35 HR, 89 RBI, and 62 BB playing for the Brewers. I doubt he will see many LH pitchers as a member of the Pirates and he and RH hitting Connor Joe could be an excellent pairing for the Pirates.
It's always an uphill battle fighting against his bad defense though. The Brewers had a slew of good pitchers who could shake it off and get the next guy out after an error and an offense that could get those runs back. We have to hope our guys can get to that level of pitching and hitting.
I doubt they would sign another dedicated SP. I think they will leave room for guys like Jackson, Jones, Priester, Falter, and Ortiz. I still think Jared Jones will be in the Rotation coming out of ST. 15 Starts, 82 IP, 10.9/3.7 K/BB/9 at AAA in 2023 is more than enough proof that he needs to be the #3 SP in the Rotation out of ST.
Perez had success in the pen last year and our group of mediocre starting candidates may all see their stuff play up if moved to the pen, so I'd look to trade from our depth in the pen for a more reliable starter to add to Keller, Perez, and Gonzales.
We can't trade Bednar for PR reasons, so I'd make Holderman the centerpiece and go from there.
I'm in the minority who likes Williams but he's probably the choice. We'll need to make a second move, though, when we re-sign Cutch and at that point I'd guess Kranick or CSN. The trades for McKinney and Olivares seem to have knocked CSN down on the depth chart, so I'll guess him and then Kranick if we add another pitcher.
Gonzales and even Perez may only be minor upgrades over Falter, so it would seem odd to let Falter go for nothing after making soft-tossing lefties the focus of the offseason (so far).
I prefer Canaan over McKinney is why I am not that crazy about adding McKinney. With several top pitching prospects that should be getting called up in the next 18 months, my order would be 1)McKinney(which won't happen), 2) Selby(unless I'm missing something), 3) Kranick.
McKinney is on a minor league deal and doesn't need a spot on the 40-man until he's called up. I could see Selby being DFA'd over CSN--I agree that it's too soon to give up on CSN.
It would be nice if they could put Endy and Oviedo on the 60 day DL, but Alika Williams is the least important MI still on the 40. Another possibility is the LH hitting Josh Palacios - is he needed now that the Pirates picked up RH hitting Olivares to platoon with Jack?
Regardless of this decision, the Pirates need to make some decisions regarding the MI. Going into ST we have Cruz, Peguero, and Triolo as 3B/2B/1B/UT. That leaves MI's Gonzales, Bae, and Cheng still on the 40. Not sure if they want to continue using Bae as a CF, but that would be the reason to favor keeping him. Termarr Johnson had excellent numbers at A and A+ last year and may start the year at GBO, but I expect he will be the starting 2B in AA before mid-season. And, Brannigan could be a quick riser also.
Once Alika moves on we will have given Stephenson away for nothing. Early last year I noticed that he had a top 5 overall stuff+ and assumed they would figure out how to use him. Nope. They just gave him away.
In a small way, trading Stephenson helps us even if we never get anything out of Williams. If we had held on to him, we'd have nothing now and at best an additional win in '23. But by trading him, we learned that there is a problem with our staff being able to get the most out of pitchers. If handled right, it could prove to be a valuable lesson.
I don't think they did, but hopefully that's part of the lesson learned. They have had some success getting more out of pitchers like Jackson and Moreta, but clearly missed something with Stephenson. The key is whether they want to learn from their mistakes.
Tampa’s pitching coach had Stephenson change his hand position slightly while throwing his slider, which increased its velocity. In September at least, Stephenson led MLB in whiff rate
This is the offseason they should've had in 2021.
Reasonably competent big leaguers who won't "block" any prospect worth a shot for nearly zero dollars spent. A watchable club that actually supports the young talent that matriculates to the show while still rebuilding young talent in the minor league ranks through veteran trades, drafts, and IFAs.
The fact that we're getting it in 2024 is I'm certain what's causing the consternation amongst fans more than the moves themselves.
You nailed it.
With the draft lottery, I agree with you that it doesn’t make sense to run out truly awful teams. But in 2021, why? You want try to go get the top pick by having the worst record. I’ll throw another wrinkle in the mix, albeit one it doesn’t appear they are doing: by tanking in 2021, you should take that money saved by not signing anyone and hold it for a future season.
Thanks for the reply! Let's check off the easy one first:
This offseason - and every shred of evidence throughout the entirety of Nutting's ownership - undeniably proves that not one single penny will be "saved" and used in the future. Not implicating you here directly, but there's a sect of fan who swears Nutting cannot use any of his own money to fund the team because that would somehow magically alter the share of ownership AND he will definitely totally hoard profits from tanking years in order to spend during winning years. This is financially illiterate twice over.
As for why 2021, IMO as a fan, because they already got their one year to intentionally suck in 2020. If the entire pitch here is to somehow create a sustainable culture of winning then *by definition* you cannot accomplish that goal by tanking long enough to bank top-of-draft talent. If you're one of the exceptionally few tanking clubs to actually succeed, then you've got a 3-4 year window before you gotta figure out how to maintain that talent without the benefit of tanking.
As a boss, I would never hire a guy who pitches me on a plan that is by definition unsustainable.
Veterans actually have trade value for prospects. You can sign a decent veteran ballplayer and trade him for prospects. You can even... gasp... sign a veteran to a multi-year contract and if he performs well, you can actually trade him at any point in that contract for prospects. What is more, if you actually put a team on the field that might provide a modest amount of enjoyment for fans, you can sell tickets to the game. You can then use this ticket revenue in later seasons. Spend a little to make a little. Even without a lottery, tanking probably is not the optimal way to build a system.
Under the current system I’d agree with you. But, veterans with value A.) generally don’t want to sign with non-contending teams. and B.) trading the types of free agents a non-contending team can sign are going to be less valuable than a number 1 overall pick and its benefits. The Pirates got at least 3 top 100 prospects from having the first pick in 2021, and a possible generational talent in 2023. Good luck getting even 1 top prospect for a rental.
But Skenes came from a lottery pick. Without a lottery, Washington and Oakland go 1-2 and take Skenes and Crews. So, even when tanking, they only got Skenes because of the lottery. These 3 top 100 prospects have yet to generate anything in terms of actual wins at the MLB level. Meanwhile, a guy like Evan Carter, who would have been available to the Pirates even if they had had the best record in baseball, is tearing up the league and helping the Rangers win a championship. There are no sure things in baseball. It is not like other sports in that everyone can tell that a player will be a star by the age of 18 or 19.
💯 on the lottery. Which is why running out a 2021 type roster just doesn’t make sense. I was merely pointing the pre-lotto benefits to picking high.
Fair point about Evan Carter, but prep guys like Evan Carter are harder to sign without the higher draft pool as the quality prep players require overslot bonuses. Think Bubba Chandler. You also have to draft those guys in bulk because for every Evan Carter there’s ten Zach Von Rosenberg’s
Suwinski, Reynolds, Cruz, Bednar, Holderman, Oviedo, Peguero... what do all of these players have in common? These (with the exception of Peguero) were the guys, along with Hayes, responsible for the Pirates respectable 2nd half last year. To date, the Pirates have not added any significant talent to their major-league roster from all the tanking. We shall see if that changes, and it has to change soon if the Pirates are ever going to be competitive. But it is certainly possible to acquire decent players trading veterans for prospects.
I think this is very well stated NMR. Competency has never been unattainable and we probably should expect at least that much every year. Just disappointed that a year with winning record potentially is being filled with the goal of just competency
sources saying Connor Joe, Jared Jones, Ashcraft, Bae and Canaan to the Blue Jays for Alex Moanoah and Daulton Varsho
I'd run away from that as fast as I could. Love Varsho's D in CF/OF, but he just keeps dropping lower and lower in Batting, and who can tell about a pitcher who goes from one of the best in MLB in 2022 to one of the worst in MLB in 2023.
Jared Jones is a special pitcher who should be in the Pirate Rotation out of ST going into his age 23 season, and Ashcraft had some injury issues, but came out in 2023 finishing with 20 IP at AA, 1.35 ERA, 23K/5BB. He should be at AAA as a 24 year old to start the year, and then to MLB by about mid-season.
I am not so sure about Jones. According to the guys who watch him here and according to the pitch-data tracking sites, he was pretty much a 2-pitch guy down the stretch with Indianapolis. His fastball and slider seem like very nice pitches, but I don't think the 2 will be enough to carry him into a prominent place in the rotation. He will need to find a 3rd or even 4th pitch that has some ganas.
only way we win is if we gamble like that
Varsho is a better option in centerfield than Hader or Taylor
Hey, so far we are out spending the Mets and Cubs!
Why is everyone so sure that M Perez is planned to be a startiing pitcher for us???
That 1.89era in nineteen relief innings last september looks might fine from the left handed side - - then drop him in PNC
Let’s hope he ends there, not because he stunk, but because two to three of the kids has breakout seasons.
could be that he wants guys who can start games in April and May and then transition to the bullpen in June
Because the Pirates aren't paying $8 million for a relief pitcher
And he's not signing with us for one year if he's not expecting to be part of the rotation.
the entire complexion of this deal (and the offseason) is related to the answer to this
same for Rowdy - everyone assumes he is the starting first baseman instead of a better left handed bat off the bench than Palacios
It may turn out that Perez moves to the pen and/or that Tellez moves to the bench, but they only signed because there is opportunity to start. The question will be how long of a leash they're given--hopefully not Hedges-long.
if this bumps Selby or Nicolas or Hernandez to Indy and enhances our bullpen, then I say hell yes
If i had to guess, Falter will be the next one off the 40.
Still think it's Williams or Kranick, maybe Palacios if they think he'd make it through waivers.
Wiliiams is probably the only one on the 40 that can play SS competently.
Sergio is his replacement.......that's Sergio Alcantara. The moves are happening fast and furious!
True
him or Jackson
Apparently, they're in deep negotiations with Manaea and the Cutch deal is imminent. If they do this and sign a Bader or Taylor, I think I'd be ok with this. Although, I have a sneaking suspicion that they'll pull off some type of trade.
Lots of off-season left... really trying hard to be optimistic.
I'd be 100% on board with Manaea. If they did sign him, I would actually be comofrtable with what BC did to address the rotation. 1B is still a hole. Unfortunately, that won't be addressed with Tellez. They do need to add a legitimate CF. Hank will be catching more, so I assume a platoon of Suwinski/Olivares will handle one corner, and Reynolds the other. I'm not sure I'd want Bader playing everyday, but we could do worse. I would also be ok, not happy, but ok, if they acquire a legitimate corner OF and plan on having Reynolds/Suwinksi/Bae cover CF.
Daulton Varsho plays gold glove caliber center field?
Someone mentioned (NMR) he hits the ball in the air a ton and it's pretty much all pull side. He might be that lefty fit we've been yearning for in PNC.
Interestingly, what Tellez cited in his interview about why he likes PNC is the batter's eye and the large gap in Left-Center, with the latter helping him to feel like he doesn't need to pull everything.
I've been hearing that since Daryle Ward. I think it was a poor signing and hope I am wrong.
But Big D did this. Although not for the right guys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYQrIgEJVSs
Optimistic Catch is my favorite Catch! I’ve always been intrigued by Manaea. He’s been erratic, but maybe there’s a bit more there. I’m admittedly more optimistic about those guys as opposed to finesse lefties like Marco though.
Manaea’s expected stats have been quite consistent. I think he would definitely benefit from pitching at PNC. I’d love for them to be bold and offer him something like 3/$35m.
Actually, you’re right. His expected stats are fairly consistent, I was mistaken. Still hope they get him.
Source on Manaea? That would be crazy to add a third lefty, but I couldn't complain if he joins Perez and Gonzales as our rotation upgrades. Too often we've put too many eggs in one basket, so having options would be a big plus.
And if they add Manaea, you're probably right that Falter would be the one DFA'd.
Or they're realizing soft throwing lefties play pretty well at PNC lol.
I like that some of them are at least flexible with starting/relieving.
BC just can’t find the exit out of MLB’s Dollar Tree store of Free Agents. He only shops there.
I was hoping for better BC. Pirates fans deserve better, BN.
isnt the dollar tree how he won the world series with the Red Sox?
Nah that was at *least* Target.
Not as rich as Pottery Barn, but you ain't never lived in a Dollar Tree neighborhood if you think that's where he was shopping ahead of 2013.
north oakland dollar tree is quite nice
SOUF OAKLAND FOR LIFE
yes that place is the ghetto and being swallowed by (doorway to the world) McGee hospital
I know it’s a very stale subject, but this whole notion that he can’t spend money because of market size and revenue stream is just a flat out lie that keeps getting shoved down our throats and that many fans seem to have bought. If they’re so damn poor, show us your income and maybe then we’ll swallow it. They never will because it’s not true.
Can’t spend like the Dodgers? Okay, I get that but KC, which supposedly has the smallest market size in MLB, just spent over $30 million/yr and committed over $75 million to get Lugo and Wacha. There’s not much anyone can do about it other than to stop believing the lie and call them on it whenever possible. You’ll never embarrass or shame Nutting. A person has to have a conscience to feel those emotions, and he’s not burdened with one of those.
Scott, did someone hack your account??????🤪
I feel like a traitor to the cause, but I’m way past defending these guys.
It’s sad that we have to get to that point.....
It's been a really disappointing offseason. I suppose I was stupid for hoping they would make moves to actually compete. With the acquisition of Marco and Perez, I suppose they're done adding to the rotation. Two reclamation projects when the market was flush with mid-level, competent starters is kind of a joke. Rowdy Tellez is awful.
Knowing what we know now with Endy, Mitch Garver would be a perfect addition to this team, being that he can catch and play 1B. An offseason that saw Garver, Bader, McCutchen, Wacha, and Gonzalez/Perez added would be within their means and make this team interesting.
When Huntington was at a similar stage, he added AJ, Martin and Liriano. BC adds Tellez, Marco and Perez. One of these is a serious approach. One isn’t.
The acquisition of AJ, Martin and Liriano was a big turning point for the Pirates success. All three of them had down years before the Pirates signed them. Martin hit .211 with the Yankees whil Burnett and Liriano were coming off seasons with ERAs in the fives. I don't think many of were too excited with the Burnett or Liriano acquistions at the time, but they were just what the doctor ordered. Martin was a great signing. I don't have much faith in what the Pirates have done with their offense this year, but am not going to rule out a comeback from any starting pitchers the Pirates sign.
Dramatic differences in ceiling. AJ, Martin and Liriano had 5-WAR seasons before Pgh, several in AJ’s and Martin’s cases. Martin had an 8-WAR year. BC goes for guys looking to “bounce back” to 1-2 WAR.
AJ created a lot of excitement. I was at Pirate City after he signed, before the bunt mishap. Biggest crowds I’ve seen there, due to him.
I guess my point is the Pirates have almost always looked for bargains on the starting pitching side. Guys they can bring back to what they used to be. And I can't argue your point that even though the strategy is the same, they seemed to have lowered the bar even more.
As far as what the Pirates have done on the offensive side, I am probably more upset about it than you are.
No disagreement here.
-Martin was a good get. He was solid when we got him and even better with the Pirates. I agree that the Pirates have not even tried to do that on any of their signings on offense under Cherington.
-Burnett was a rock star everywhere he went. He had his best season in 2009 with a WAR of 4.5, but followed that up with WARs of -.7 and 0. My expectations weren't too high when the Pirates got him. Even though, Marco has had only one eye-popping year with a WAR of 5.0, it just happened in 2022. I like the one year contract, but he will not attract fans to Pirates City. :)
-Liriano had his best season his rookie season with a WAR of 4.5 and in 2009 had a WAR of 4.2. The 2 seasons before the Pirates added him, he had WARS of -.3 and 0.2. I thought it was a weak signing at the time, similar to 2022 when the Pirates signed Jose Quintana who had two previous seasons with WARs over 5.
The only person I remember not liking the Martin signing was Dejan. He dumped all over Martin due to his batting average and compared it to Matt Morris. When folks started reminding him of it after Martin became a big success, he deleted the article.
The Russell Martin signing was refreshing in the way that it seemed like the Pirates were actually trying to win.
I am trying not to be judgemental anymore when the Pirates sign starting pitching. I didn't like the Burnett or Liriano acquistions. I was upset when they settled for Volquez or Happ. I was furious with Jose Quintana. Hill and Vince Velasquez seemed like jokes to me. Every one of those guys did better than what I expected, so I am trying to be a little optimstic with Martin and Marco. :)
Well, BC probably had the same budget as NH minus inflation!!!!
I'm not happy with their approach (yet) but to be fair, you could equate Liriano and Perez. I was more excited about Liriano at the time, and he had two seasons with 4 bWAR (instead of just one that looks like an outlier), was younger, threw harder, etc., but he was also coming off of two poor seasons when we signed him.
My "yet" part is leaving the door open for an A.J.-type acquisition. Since overall Cherington's acquisitions seem to follow Huntington's playbook, though maybe not as effectively, and he keeps talking about trades, I hope my hope is justified.
Equating Martin Perez with Frankie Liriano is the same mistake Huntington made with Jon Niese.
Your wait will be akin to Linus waiting for the Great Pumpkin. Unless they’re willing to part with serious prospect capital, I don’t see it happening.
The thing with Perez is the margin for error is incredibly thin with that k rate. Although, he induces grounders at a pretty good rate. I like him better than Marco.
Thing is, and I used to complain about this with Huntington, if you have pitch-to-contact guys (and Perez will generate a lot of soft contact since all 3 of his primary pitches: 2-seamer, cutter, and change have good movement), you really want to put as good a defense as possible behind them. Neither Huntington nor Cherington seem to consider defense an important part of baseball.
Were you a fan at the time of the early Huntington years?
A groundballing pitching staff backed by a quality infield defense that maximized shifting when only a handful of clubs were doing it is literally the story of the 2013-2015 years.
Huntington's distinct shift away from pitching to contact after 2016 also then didn't really require the same defensive rigor, so recency bias may be why you're forgetting about the enormous focus on defense through his most successful years.
I've been a fan since I was a child in the 1970s watching them play on a fuzzy black-and-white TV with bad reception, some 50 miles from Pittsburgh, that my grandma bought me. I don't think that anyone considered Pedro Alvarez (even pre-yips), Neal Walker. or Jung Ho Kang to be defensive wizards. It was OK, the infield defense, but this was not Pendleton, Smith, and Herr out there.
If they're done other than re-signing Cutch, it's disappointing. But they've also set themselves up that if they do make a big signing or trade, the offseason could look quite good. Imagine a trade bringing in a quality #2 pitcher. For the sake of illustration, let's say Cease though I expect the Dodgers or Braves, teams fully committed to winning in '24, would outbid us even if we are interested. But Cease, Keller, Perez, Gonzales, Ortiz/Priester/Contreras/Falter with Skenes, Bru, Jones, and Burrows ready as early as June is a rotation we could contend with.
However, Keller, Perez, Gonzales, and two of the four listed above has too many question marks for me to feel optimistic. It seems strange that one pitcher could have that kind of impact, but that's the way I feel.
Ben, please go big for the last rotation spot.
What are you willing to part for to get Cease? Prolly has to be one of Bubba/TJ.
not worth it
I'd think seriously about a trade centered around Bubba for Cease. That could hurt, but we know what they say about pitching prospects.
I would if they upgraded CF and 1st base, I would want a big improvement to the position players first though.
Spot on, Scranton. BC and his regime are not serious people if they think this team is remotely positioned to contend for a playoff spot. Five years in and all we do is sign reclamation projects. Never a bold move. Never a commitment to actually winning. Very disappointed.
Never a bold move....
Hmm. My thinking sometimes is at the MLB level, the difference between the top and the bottom can often be very small... kind of the flick of a switch... Example would be the Pirates' hot start, midseason slump, and solid finish.
I think, and this might put me on Nutting's side, that high priced veterans are not worth what they're getting paid in real terms. That slightly better than fungible players can make a difference.
It appears that scoring runs should take care of itself this season as all our young Bucs begin to mature. Add Cruz and some experienced outfield and 1b bats and good platoons and suddenly, I'm not too concerned about scoring runs.
Adding STABILITY at first and in the OF is another part of gluing together a decent team.
Lefty in PNC is another good bet.
The Pirates had a winning record in bullpen games last year. Such games make it hard for the opponent to sort of know what's coming next and it keeps the opposing batters looking at fresh arms each time around and not having two or three looks at a pitcher in order to groove him.
A good starter should give you six innings. That's all I expect, with one or two times in a week maybe someone goes 7 or better. I feel like if Keller gets hurt, we're in trouble. But I also feel like we're gonna see some interesting starters making their debuts this season and next season should be fun without the fungible.
......."I'm not too concerned with scoring runs"......Don't let that one bite you in the ass!
This will always be a major concern espec after last few seasons.
Perez plus Cutch plus maybe Manea and Frazier…
I’m sniffing a trade to clear up 40 man space
Hope BC clears up a spot or 2 with trades. Maybe a NickyG to the Nats for a Elijah Green or Hassell.
The Nats have a surplus of OF prospects. The Pirates have a surplus (supposedly) of pitching prospects. Seems like a good idea to pick up the phone and see about a prospect for prospect deal.
Ortiz and NickyG. for Green, Hassell and one of Susana or Bennett, should work lol. We clear a couple 40 man spaces.
I think they would have to be content with just getting Hassell or Green for Ortiz and Nicky G. I think that I would prefer Green. Hassell has really struggled to lift off in AA.
I'd prefer Green as well, but Hassel, Green and Susana value have all dropped as well and Ortiz and NickyG, are at least on the doorstep to the majors. Green and Susana are struggling in low A. Their value has to be pretty low. Probably a one for one though
Generally speaking, I suspect that it is a good idea to trade guys before you DFA them, so that way the other team does not know that you have to trade them in the next 3 days. So far, Cherington has failed to grasp this simple concept.
They probably could use a potential 2nd basemen as well lol. We have a few pitchers and 2nd basemen we could use to clear a space or 2 on the 40 man.
The Pirates look like they will finalize the 2024 Rotation for less than $20 mil. Gonzales ($12 mil), Perez ($8 mil), and Keller ($6 mil) add up to $26 mil, but $8.750 mil of the Gonzales money is being offset by the Mariners and Braves. Even if they add 3 more of the guys from last year, they will not exceed $20 mil. PNC and the Pirates upgraded defense should help this group of SP's.
Nice interview of Rowdy Tellez on MLB today. Heading into his age 29 season, he is looking for a bounce-back to 2022 when he had 23 doubles, 35 HR, 89 RBI, and 62 BB playing for the Brewers. I doubt he will see many LH pitchers as a member of the Pirates and he and RH hitting Connor Joe could be an excellent pairing for the Pirates.
Yes, great interviews on pirates.com. We'll see how he plays, but it's hard not to like him after seeing the interviews.
It's always an uphill battle fighting against his bad defense though. The Brewers had a slew of good pitchers who could shake it off and get the next guy out after an error and an offense that could get those runs back. We have to hope our guys can get to that level of pitching and hitting.
I think they still sign one more guy.
I doubt they would sign another dedicated SP. I think they will leave room for guys like Jackson, Jones, Priester, Falter, and Ortiz. I still think Jared Jones will be in the Rotation coming out of ST. 15 Starts, 82 IP, 10.9/3.7 K/BB/9 at AAA in 2023 is more than enough proof that he needs to be the #3 SP in the Rotation out of ST.
Perez had success in the pen last year and our group of mediocre starting candidates may all see their stuff play up if moved to the pen, so I'd look to trade from our depth in the pen for a more reliable starter to add to Keller, Perez, and Gonzales.
We can't trade Bednar for PR reasons, so I'd make Holderman the centerpiece and go from there.
Besides Cutch?
Yeah I think they’ll sign/trade for one more starter. Probably not anyone super expensive obviously. James Paxton, etc.
They need a corresponding move, correct? Alika Williams, Bailey Falter, or Max Kranick?
I'm in the minority who likes Williams but he's probably the choice. We'll need to make a second move, though, when we re-sign Cutch and at that point I'd guess Kranick or CSN. The trades for McKinney and Olivares seem to have knocked CSN down on the depth chart, so I'll guess him and then Kranick if we add another pitcher.
Gonzales and even Perez may only be minor upgrades over Falter, so it would seem odd to let Falter go for nothing after making soft-tossing lefties the focus of the offseason (so far).
I prefer Canaan over McKinney is why I am not that crazy about adding McKinney. With several top pitching prospects that should be getting called up in the next 18 months, my order would be 1)McKinney(which won't happen), 2) Selby(unless I'm missing something), 3) Kranick.
McKinney is on a minor league deal and doesn't need a spot on the 40-man until he's called up. I could see Selby being DFA'd over CSN--I agree that it's too soon to give up on CSN.
Thanks for letting me know. Then getting McKinney might actually be a good thing.
Alika or CSN.
It would be nice if they could put Endy and Oviedo on the 60 day DL, but Alika Williams is the least important MI still on the 40. Another possibility is the LH hitting Josh Palacios - is he needed now that the Pirates picked up RH hitting Olivares to platoon with Jack?
Regardless of this decision, the Pirates need to make some decisions regarding the MI. Going into ST we have Cruz, Peguero, and Triolo as 3B/2B/1B/UT. That leaves MI's Gonzales, Bae, and Cheng still on the 40. Not sure if they want to continue using Bae as a CF, but that would be the reason to favor keeping him. Termarr Johnson had excellent numbers at A and A+ last year and may start the year at GBO, but I expect he will be the starting 2B in AA before mid-season. And, Brannigan could be a quick riser also.
Once Alika moves on we will have given Stephenson away for nothing. Early last year I noticed that he had a top 5 overall stuff+ and assumed they would figure out how to use him. Nope. They just gave him away.
In a small way, trading Stephenson helps us even if we never get anything out of Williams. If we had held on to him, we'd have nothing now and at best an additional win in '23. But by trading him, we learned that there is a problem with our staff being able to get the most out of pitchers. If handled right, it could prove to be a valuable lesson.
I like the optimism, but wonder if they even knew they had a real arm.
I don't think they did, but hopefully that's part of the lesson learned. They have had some success getting more out of pitchers like Jackson and Moreta, but clearly missed something with Stephenson. The key is whether they want to learn from their mistakes.
Tampa’s pitching coach had Stephenson change his hand position slightly while throwing his slider, which increased its velocity. In September at least, Stephenson led MLB in whiff rate
https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2023/09/16/robert-stephenson-pitch-tweak-cutter-slider-mlb-reliever/
Apparently, they failed to learn this same lesson when they had Clay Holmes. Not sure why they would learn it now with Stephenson.