There will be a more formal annoucnement tomorrow in the Rundown, but Nola, WTM, John, and I teamed up with some others to do our own Minor League Guide book for the 2024 season, which released on Amazon today.
Rankings will be a tad different than the list on the site here, since there were a couple more people voting, and it went up to the top 50. A lot of great info, on top of the in-depth scouting reports.
Have a look and grab a copy now! Kindle versions are available as well!
"It’s a good deal for everyone involved. Now if the Pirates could only add, oh, three good hitters and two good starters, they might really be cooking in 2024."
"There’s a chance that Paul Skenes has overtaken Keller as the best pitcher on the Pirates by midseason. There’s a chance that he’s already better, in fact. But that’s a good thing for the team, not a bad one;"
Did you guys realize that Wade Miley is the Brewers #2 right now after Peralta? Brewers rotation is very shaky with no Skenes or Jones in the wings. Love their position players but not their pitching.
It's a little interesting to me that Passan and McDaniel broke the story instead of someone like Mackey, who seems to have a good relationship with the players and is on site. I know Passan and other national writers often are the ones to break stories like this one, but why is that?
Is there some kind of unwritten agreement between agents and national media outlets? Agents give them breaking news in exchange for them sharing rumors that might give agents more leverage? Or between front offices and those outlets? Is the idea that when ESPN breaks the story, it will get more attention and therefore more good press for the organization?
I'm not bothered by this at all, just noting that after reading Mackey's stories over the past year suggesting that an extension would get done, it seemed odd that he wasn't then the one who got to break the story.
I think Mackey has recently addressed it. The simple explanation is that local beat writers aren’t necessarily in the business of breaking news. The big national guys have a much bigger network and information to trade with agents and FO folks, and breaking news is what some of these guys are essentially paid to do.
PG and Trib people come in from the outside and spend a lot of time w the team. Kiley has worked for multiple teams as a scout. Big difference. Kiley’s an “insider”. Mackeys still kinda an outsider… well liked outsider (Ditto w Alex).
I think you're reading too much into it. I've been a news reporter and sometimes you just get good information for whatever reason. I mean, Mackey could have had a cold that day or been doing something else or what have you.
The thing you often get into is being trusted as a reporter. Let's say Mitch Keller's agent knows and has never been burnt by this reporter or that one and so that reporter has credibility with that agent. You drop him a text maybe.
Maybe someone in the front office has people they have a similar relationship with.
That said, I could see a Scott Boras using an outlet, as you suggest, to stir a market.
__________________________
"Why, uh, sure lil' friend. Help yourself to the use of my, uh, telly-o-phone."
All for a Keller extension, but with 2024 included, I think they overpaid. 5/77 seems more appropriate as new money starting in 2025. Let’s hope he went back to Tread this winter.
Yeah, it's basically 4/72 though the first year would have been something like 12 via arb, so really 3/60. I'm also all for the deal--they should be spending like this. But it doesn't quite jive with them implying that FA pitchers in the 3/60 range are out of our price range. Maybe they're not, and they just chose to sign elsewhere. But there were a number of quality arms at that price point and lower that for whatever reason we didn't sign, and then Cherington implied the other day that the prices were too high which is why he didn't do more this offseason.
Honestly, I don’t see Mitch as as $20m per year pitcher YET. Not saying he can’t get there, but there hasn’t been much sustained success outside of about one year, if that. Hardly enough to make a 3 year and $60m commitment, especially when you look at his xStats which leave much to be desired (and in this case some concern). Everyone is comping Pablo Lopez; however, Pablo is a considerably better pitcher with a considerably better track record. Simply put, the Pirates are taking on way too much risk here; it’s a literal gamble and not very wise IMO. Maybe it’s his pedigree, maybe it’s hopium, or maybe it’s this FO’s way of stroking themselves as a development victory, but I just don’t get it.
The implication is that *these are* the free agents for the last half of this decade that will compliment the pre-arb core matriculating into place now.
They've effectively locked in like 90% their roster with internal dudes for the rest of the decade, for better or worse.
I think for the better. BC had a very solid background while in Boston, participating as the Director of Baseball Ops in the building of the roster for the 2007 WS Champions, and was the VP and GM for the 2013 WS Champions. When Boston hired Dombrowski in above him in 2015, he immediately resigned. However, at the time of his resignation, he had already built the core of players that eventually were responsible for leading Boston to the 2018 WS Championship.
Some of the moves over the first 4 years have been shaky at best, but hard to question a guy with his background.
Yea, I guess I’m just not over enthusiastic about the implications.
I hope they are right about these prospects coming up… We already saw what happens when you put all your money on prospects hitting the high end of their outcomes.
The Pirates Starting Pitching was 25th of 30 in 2022; 18th of 30 in 2023 and Mitch Keller was a major contributor to that improvement. He has earned the Extension -
23 Starts 101 IP in 2021, Age 25
29 Starts 159 IP in 2022, 5+ innings/Start, Age 26
32 Starts 194 IP in 2023, 6+ innings/Start. 4 Seamer Run Value of +5; Sinker Run Value +11, Age 27
There will be a more formal annoucnement tomorrow in the Rundown, but Nola, WTM, John, and I teamed up with some others to do our own Minor League Guide book for the 2024 season, which released on Amazon today.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CW1H34N6/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3DNWN9DSBZFFE&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.Yt6mqEHlK0O262Fhno-iag.sQBrF6MOOiGbuSdUXawhPMoMl8ILDkUVz8aIk6h7FAI&dib_tag=se&keywords=2024+pittsburgh+pirates+minor+league+guide&qid=1708723264&sprefix=2024+pittsburgh+pirates+mino%2Caps%2C1372&sr=8-1
Rankings will be a tad different than the list on the site here, since there were a couple more people voting, and it went up to the top 50. A lot of great info, on top of the in-depth scouting reports.
Have a look and grab a copy now! Kindle versions are available as well!
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mitch-keller-and-the-pirates-tie-the-knot/
"It’s a good deal for everyone involved. Now if the Pirates could only add, oh, three good hitters and two good starters, they might really be cooking in 2024."
Felt a bit unnecessary by Ben honestly
They ain’t wrong. It’s funny how we can pick on our own team, but get annoyed when an outlet does it as well.
Little brother syndrome. I've thought that for years. I can f with the dude but you come around and do it better call the dentist.
Reading this makes me smile...
"There’s a chance that Paul Skenes has overtaken Keller as the best pitcher on the Pirates by midseason. There’s a chance that he’s already better, in fact. But that’s a good thing for the team, not a bad one;"
Did you guys realize that Wade Miley is the Brewers #2 right now after Peralta? Brewers rotation is very shaky with no Skenes or Jones in the wings. Love their position players but not their pitching.
Yeah... there was some smoke and mirrors with the Brewers last year. I'm not sure that they are the team that many make them out to be.
It's a little interesting to me that Passan and McDaniel broke the story instead of someone like Mackey, who seems to have a good relationship with the players and is on site. I know Passan and other national writers often are the ones to break stories like this one, but why is that?
Is there some kind of unwritten agreement between agents and national media outlets? Agents give them breaking news in exchange for them sharing rumors that might give agents more leverage? Or between front offices and those outlets? Is the idea that when ESPN breaks the story, it will get more attention and therefore more good press for the organization?
I'm not bothered by this at all, just noting that after reading Mackey's stories over the past year suggesting that an extension would get done, it seemed odd that he wasn't then the one who got to break the story.
I think Mackey has recently addressed it. The simple explanation is that local beat writers aren’t necessarily in the business of breaking news. The big national guys have a much bigger network and information to trade with agents and FO folks, and breaking news is what some of these guys are essentially paid to do.
Boob Nightengale and jon heymen both gave mackey credit, not sure who was actual first but seems he was definitely in on it
PG and Trib people come in from the outside and spend a lot of time w the team. Kiley has worked for multiple teams as a scout. Big difference. Kiley’s an “insider”. Mackeys still kinda an outsider… well liked outsider (Ditto w Alex).
I’m sure the all dislike DK. And now Nesbitt.
Yeah, Mackey is a wanna be “insider”.
A “pre-insider!”
TNBucs
I think you're reading too much into it. I've been a news reporter and sometimes you just get good information for whatever reason. I mean, Mackey could have had a cold that day or been doing something else or what have you.
The thing you often get into is being trusted as a reporter. Let's say Mitch Keller's agent knows and has never been burnt by this reporter or that one and so that reporter has credibility with that agent. You drop him a text maybe.
Maybe someone in the front office has people they have a similar relationship with.
That said, I could see a Scott Boras using an outlet, as you suggest, to stir a market.
__________________________
"Why, uh, sure lil' friend. Help yourself to the use of my, uh, telly-o-phone."
-Wabbit
All for a Keller extension, but with 2024 included, I think they overpaid. 5/77 seems more appropriate as new money starting in 2025. Let’s hope he went back to Tread this winter.
Yeah, it's basically 4/72 though the first year would have been something like 12 via arb, so really 3/60. I'm also all for the deal--they should be spending like this. But it doesn't quite jive with them implying that FA pitchers in the 3/60 range are out of our price range. Maybe they're not, and they just chose to sign elsewhere. But there were a number of quality arms at that price point and lower that for whatever reason we didn't sign, and then Cherington implied the other day that the prices were too high which is why he didn't do more this offseason.
Honestly, I don’t see Mitch as as $20m per year pitcher YET. Not saying he can’t get there, but there hasn’t been much sustained success outside of about one year, if that. Hardly enough to make a 3 year and $60m commitment, especially when you look at his xStats which leave much to be desired (and in this case some concern). Everyone is comping Pablo Lopez; however, Pablo is a considerably better pitcher with a considerably better track record. Simply put, the Pirates are taking on way too much risk here; it’s a literal gamble and not very wise IMO. Maybe it’s his pedigree, maybe it’s hopium, or maybe it’s this FO’s way of stroking themselves as a development victory, but I just don’t get it.
Joey Musgrove's FA contract is the one I've had in mind: 5 FA yrs @ $20m AAV, ages 30-34
Joe's the better pitcher, but Mitch has had better health and is a bit younger.
I remain extremely skeptical of this style of teambuilding...
I hear ya on that.
If the Pirates were willing to throw out this kind of money to a pitcher, why not sign a free agent and start actually building the team?
The implication is that *these are* the free agents for the last half of this decade that will compliment the pre-arb core matriculating into place now.
They've effectively locked in like 90% their roster with internal dudes for the rest of the decade, for better or worse.
I think for the better. BC had a very solid background while in Boston, participating as the Director of Baseball Ops in the building of the roster for the 2007 WS Champions, and was the VP and GM for the 2013 WS Champions. When Boston hired Dombrowski in above him in 2015, he immediately resigned. However, at the time of his resignation, he had already built the core of players that eventually were responsible for leading Boston to the 2018 WS Championship.
Some of the moves over the first 4 years have been shaky at best, but hard to question a guy with his background.
Yea, I guess I’m just not over enthusiastic about the implications.
I hope they are right about these prospects coming up… We already saw what happens when you put all your money on prospects hitting the high end of their outcomes.
The Pirates Starting Pitching was 25th of 30 in 2022; 18th of 30 in 2023 and Mitch Keller was a major contributor to that improvement. He has earned the Extension -
23 Starts 101 IP in 2021, Age 25
29 Starts 159 IP in 2022, 5+ innings/Start, Age 26
32 Starts 194 IP in 2023, 6+ innings/Start. 4 Seamer Run Value of +5; Sinker Run Value +11, Age 27
To paraphrase some 21st Century lyrical genius, “I got 99 problems, but Mitch Keller ain’t one of em.”
T-Bone says, "It's a great day to be a Pirates fan!"