106 Comments
User's avatar
WTM's avatar
8hEdited

He has a .926 OPS. If that’s not enough to get him another shot, why’s he still on the 40-man? Who’s blocking him? Phamine? Canario, who’s so bad Kelly’s terrified to play him? Is anything that makes the least sense ever going to happen with this dead franchise?

NOTE: This was supposed to reply to 1979 below.

Expand full comment
1979andCounting's avatar

Agreed the call-up should be as soon as Pham gets dealt or released, or swapped out with Canario going to AAA.

Expand full comment
StatsCbl's avatar

Billy Cook and Jack Suwinski playing side to side in the outfield is probably not appreciated enough. Even though, I am quite pleased with Pham and Cruz covering ground this year, not to mention the rifle by Cruz last night.

Expand full comment
WTM's avatar

If nobody’s gonna hit, at least catch the ball.

Expand full comment
1979andCounting's avatar

Jack went 4-4! Seems like a different hitter in AAA. I'd love for him to be back up on Sept 1 but I'm not getting my hopes up that it will transfer to MLB pitching.

Expand full comment
WTM's avatar

AAA lineup today.

Expand full comment
JRC21's avatar
10hEdited

Regarding Cherington’s trade record, Jason Mackey did the PhD version earlier this spring, but this morning he’s got the one paragraph abstract: the trades of Bell, Taillon, Musgrove, and Holmes have netted the Pirates 0.3 WAR. Total.

Edit: The WAR total is for hitters only.

Anyone on this board, armed with all the right subscriptions, could have done better than that.

Expand full comment
StatsCbl's avatar

I thought Bednar came over in the Musgrove trade.

Expand full comment
JRC21's avatar

Sorry —- you are correct. The 0.3 WAR total is for hitters only. I’ll add an edit.

Expand full comment
NMR's avatar

He did, but the metric used is *net* which must be accounting for negative-WAR performances from others.

Roansy flaming out of big league ball and Endy's failure to launch really stings.

Get even 50th percentile outcomes from those two and Bednar, Endy, Roansy all the sudden are an extremely reasonable return. Josh Bell stunk and Holmes was more upside than actual value.

Expand full comment
Catch22's avatar

Well said. Ro and Endy going bust really hurt.

Bell yielded Crowe and he was worth -0.5

Ro was the only one that made the show in the Taillon trade and he was worth 0.6.

Holmes was traded for Hoy Park and Diego Castillo and they were worth a combined -0.7

Expand full comment
WTM's avatar

"If only those two had worked out," though, speaks volumes about how bad a job BC did. Those trades brought in, what, a dozen prospects? So we're talking about needing only a quarter of them to work out even modestly. BC, though, fell short of 10%, and the one success was a reliever, which inherently gives you the lowest upside no matter how good he is.

Expand full comment
1979andCounting's avatar

Off topic, Johan is back. Probably something Ethan could answer, but I'm guessing he got a raise for terminating, and then re-signing?

Expand full comment
WTM's avatar

Seems possible. Or maybe other offers weren't forthcoming. With the deadline approaching and three current relievers seeming likely targets, maybe he took stock and figured Pgh was his best shot.

Expand full comment
1979andCounting's avatar

Idk, there's alot of teams needing bullpen help. He should have stayed a free agent for the rest of July.

Expand full comment
JRC21's avatar

Just checked: Bednar’s total WAR to date with the Pirates is 5.0, including 0.9 this year.

Expand full comment
WTM's avatar

Is this fWAR or bWAR? Because if you use fWAR, I'm pretty sure the hitters alone come out well below replacement. (I ran through very quickly so I might have forgotten somebody, but all were comfortably below replacement except Endy, who's at exactly 0.0.)

Expand full comment
Arky Wags's avatar

Blutarsky level!

Expand full comment
JRC21's avatar

Mackey uses bWAR.

Expand full comment
1979andCounting's avatar

Notably in two 1-0 losses, the Mariners ran the bases properly to score the lone run on Saturday by not going home on contact, and Triolo did not challenge the RF in going first to third on Sunday, for an easy Sac Fly run scored by next batter IKF. It's the little things at the highest level that separate a W and an L. It's the Pirate Way.

Expand full comment
Catch22's avatar

"Mitch Keller may end up being the best starter out there. You're going to have to overpay to get him"

-Jon Heyman.

Expand full comment
WTM's avatar

The opportunity is there, but . . . . . . Cherington.

Expand full comment
Bianco599's avatar

Im hoping for a Midwest team for him that's not in Chicago for different reasons. Looking at current wildcard maybe Giants? Tigers running away in that division. Do the Friars have anything left to trade?

Crazy Bravos only one win more than the Bucs.

Expand full comment
1979andCounting's avatar

It is crazy to see where the Braves are! The way Anthopoulos did all those many many long-term extensions of premiere pitchers and hitters, they were thought (by most) to be a perennial playoff team. It is shocking.

Expand full comment
Buccoboy's avatar

Don't forget they won a world series.

Expand full comment
1979andCounting's avatar

Not with their current core. They only have 1 or 2 players left from the 2021 WS.

Expand full comment
Bianco599's avatar

They had some pitching fall flat or injured. Soroka, Kyle wright, touki, bryse, Kolby Allard.

Plus Drew Waters and Pache. You can tell I used to work with a Braves fan.

Expand full comment
Melkel's avatar

I actually agree with Heyman

Expand full comment
Bianco599's avatar

If the Guardians want to dance I'd take Kayfus and Ingle. Throw Kayfus in right. I respond to you bc you may know these gems. Mitch and ? Or would you (Not BC) asked for more.

Expand full comment
Melkel's avatar

I can't see the Guardians moving Kayfus with their outfield needs, really Ingle for that matter for the salary that Mitch makes. Just doesn't fit how the Guardians operate.

Expand full comment
Bianco599's avatar

Cross them off. Any chance you think Tigers part with with top 1-3 for Mitch? Obviously in your opinion.

Expand full comment
Melkel's avatar

Not a chance on their top 2, Rainer and Briceno maybe but unlikely. Briceno has been killing it and just got promoted to double A along with Clark and McGonigle.

It would take Skenes to get those 4 (if they threw in Jobe and a compA and a lottery ticket I'd listen lol).

Expand full comment
Catch22's avatar

If I'm BC, I'm working the phones pretty hard with Breslow. Abreu for Keller trade lines up pretty well.

Expand full comment
Melkel's avatar

They do, I'd much rather get Abreu than Duran. I think the Red Sox want to keep Wilyer though.

Expand full comment
Buccoboy's avatar

IMHO it would be a wonderful day for Pirate fans if Keller, Reynolds and Hayes can be traded at the deadline. Again I'm not confident that BC can pull this off and improve the team but these 3 and maybe throw in Bednar are not moving the needle in making them a winner. One thing for sure is that Nuttin would LOVE to dump all that salary and for once I'd agree with him.

Expand full comment
Chris Chapman's avatar

Great article on Hayes’ swing path. My questions? Are we trying to change this??? If not, why not? Not a question: if he goes somewhere else and hits I’m going to lose it. : )

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kebryan-hayes-needs-a-bat-path-fix/

Expand full comment
NMR's avatar
12hEdited

geez, 2021 called and wants their article back.

Expand full comment
Chris Chapman's avatar

Well it has been a problem since then and never has been addressed, except in late ‘23. Why doesn’t he change his swing?

Expand full comment
NMR's avatar

again, i think it's reasonable to consider whether or not his back injury that just so happened to become chronic along the exact same timeline is a contributing factor.

Expand full comment
Chris Chapman's avatar

He says he is healthy. His defense is back at an elite level. He can’t hit. So maybe try to retool and approach it from a different angle?

Expand full comment
JRC21's avatar

I was going to say the same thing that NMR did —- it’s his back injury.

To expand a bit, the P-G reported last September that he had serious chronic back problems that could only be corrected with risky surgery that might end his playing career. I’m as cynical as the next person here about Pirates management and hitting instruction, but the swing he is using this year is probably the only swing he can use without landing on the DL. So he has become a gold glove singles hitter for the duration.

A great team can carry a guy like that —- think Mark Belanger or Paul Blair on the great Orioles teams of the late 60s/early 70s or Rafael Belliard on the early 90s Braves. But the Orioles had Frank and Brooks Robinson and Boog Powell. The Dodgers could get away with playing Hayes since they have Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts (at shortstop).

I am certain that there is nothing in that Fangraphs article that is a surprise to the Pirates. Hayes has a bad back and he’s doing the best he can within the severe limitations that he is facing.

Expand full comment
NMR's avatar

it does beg the question at this point if the bat is viable with his new swing that was intentionally crafted to keep him healthy. i genuinely hope the actual health issue has been resolved and not just mitigated by a lesser swing.

swinging a bat requires rotational athleticism that isn't close to comparable to defensive requirements, but I truly wish him the best.

Expand full comment
RetireNutting's avatar

When a Fangraphs analyst shows your field team the math you know you're being laughed at across the league.

Expand full comment
Buccoboy's avatar

You're exactly right. It goes to the total failure of the organization in developing and improving this putrid offense.

Expand full comment
Chris Chapman's avatar

It is strange to me because we saw Hayes “breakout” in the last 2 months of ‘23 after working with Jon Nunnally. I thought he had finally figured it out.

Expand full comment
NMR's avatar

that pesky lil chronic, debilitating back injury seems to have put the kibosh on his late-'23 breakout.

Expand full comment
JRC21's avatar

No one seems to get the concept that Hayes has a chronic and serious back problem that renders him unable to use a swing that generates power.

Expand full comment
bucsws2024's avatar

He isn't, and perhaps shouldn't, be pursuing HR power. But he certainly makes enough solid contact to be a gap-to-gap doubles guy. And if he got 25-30 doubles a year, that would make a huge difference. And he can do that without worrying about over-rotating

His launch angle has improved this year, although he's at a career high for IF popups. His EV has been consistent throughout his career. His hard hit % and barrel % are up from last year.

In short, the results should be better than they are. His xSLG is 64 pts higher than his actual.

I've had severe back issues since I was a teenager. I do not like or trust chiropractors and would never let one "make adjustments", I far prefer PT. However, if Hayes trusts his guy in Houston and it's working for him, then spend a million and have the guy join the staff for the season. If it keeps Hayes healthy and productive, then it would be the best million Nutting has spent since acquiring JA Happ.

Expand full comment
Chris Chapman's avatar

Pretty sure most people get that. Clearly that was why he was so bad last year, but his defense is back to elite levels and he is playing everyday. If, indeed, he cannot hit better than he currently does, regardless of the reason, then he cannot be a starter on a major league team. He is then a utility INF who should only get 300-350 plate appearance a year. Stop running him out there everyday.

Expand full comment
Catch22's avatar

Obviously, the Pirates struggle with hitting dev., but it's not just simple math and Hayes is fixed.

Maybe he does go to another team and boom he's a league average bat and 4 fWAR player. I'm just drawing a blank of hitters that recently left the Pirates and found success elsewhere.

Expand full comment
RetireNutting's avatar

Guys like Suwinski have gone backwards. Davis was supposed to be a bat first guy. Bart is regressing to SF Bart.

Expand full comment
Bianco599's avatar

Did the Simpsons really kill off Marge? I feel for Bart if so.

Expand full comment
J-Ro's avatar

I don't mind the content of DK's site or his current sentiments around the team, but his desire to make himself a main player has always been hilarious. It's why I unsubscribed pretty quickly years ago.

Expand full comment
Arky Wags's avatar

I don’t have a sub, what are his latest escapades?

Expand full comment
JRC21's avatar

He covered the team in Seattle for the recent series. So he spent a fair bit of column space and brain power saying what a great city Seattle was and how he was such an expert on all things Seattle. Then he spent the whole weekend teasing a column, implying that he was going to break a story that epitomized the plight of the 2025 Pirates. He even wrote that he postponed filing it because it was such a reporting challenge to put it all together.

The result? As J-Ro said, fire Cherington. And the players are upset that they are not taking advantage of the Skenes window. And Shelton was checked out dating back to spring training. Etc.

It’s absurd what a legend in his own mind DK is.

Expand full comment
J-Ro's avatar

Nor do I, but most of the posts there are free to read. It's nothing outside of the usual shtick...keeps calling for BC to be fired, which is nothing new/original, but all ready to proclaim himself as pivotal should it actually happen haha.

Expand full comment
JRC21's avatar

Totally agree. He’s the greatest blogger/reporter in the history of sports. Just ask him.

Expand full comment
Catch22's avatar

I've been following this team religiously for about 3-1/2 decades and I've never seen one like this. Lead the league in least number of runs allowed and lead the league in least number of runs scored.

They're really good at the pitching thing and equally as bad at the hitting thing. wtf?!?

Expand full comment
TNBucs's avatar

Before this year and this team I wouldn't have thought it possible to lead the league in pitching and not even be in contention for a WC spot.

Expand full comment
NolaJeffy(BnP)'s avatar

It's rather remarkable. Someway somehow Ben constantly answers the question of, "It can't get worse, can it?" with a resounding "Yes."

The offense doesn't even need to be average, just slightly below, and we're probably talking within range of division if not st least the WC and adding at deadline. What scares me is Ben will trade for the most uninspiring "additions" at the deadline with a "vision of the future".

Expand full comment
WTM's avatar

Having nightmares of Keller for BDLC 2.

Expand full comment
NolaJeffy(BnP)'s avatar

He'll just add the updated version of Marcano or IKF.

Expand full comment
WTM's avatar

The obsession with marginal players just screams that this is a guy who’s afraid to make real moves.

Expand full comment
Anthony Murphy's avatar

I don't have a rooting interest in this team anymore, but if Ben trades for another SS that can't actually play short my brain is going to explode

Expand full comment
Melkel's avatar

With the exception of Mauricio as a secondary piece in a Keller trade (with Benge being the primary) and Santucci being the sweetener.

Expand full comment
bucsws2024's avatar

I think there are two targets I'd be interested in adding immediately - Jasson Dominguez (NYY) and Matt Shaw (CHC). Both their teams are interested in dealing with Bucs. If you can't get these guys in a deal involving Keller or Bednar/Santana, you wait for the offseason. But if you can get one or both, you deal. I might also include Colson Cowerd as a target, but I think O's intend to keep him assuming they trade Mullins.

Expand full comment
Catch22's avatar

hard pass for me regarding Mauricio. He seems pretty undisciplined and lacks a hit tool. He's had 2 full seasons in AA & AAA and he netted a 108 & 106 wRC+ respectively.

If the Pirates showed any life in developing bats, then maybe. He just looks to me like someone who washes out pretty quickly.

Baty would be my preference. I think dude has a chance to be a star.

I probably wouldn't trade Keller unless you get something like Abreu as the return.

Expand full comment
Anthony Murphy's avatar

Was a big Santucci fan in the draft, so wouldn't mind bringing him in. Regardless, I'm not really in a rush to trade Keller

Expand full comment
Joel Lesher's avatar

I’m trying not to get too excited because, well, 3 decades of mostly bad teams at the MLB level, but I am cautiously optimistic about a number of position players in the system right now. 🤞🏼 🤞🏼

Expand full comment
TNBucs's avatar

There are finally signs that we're consistently getting good players out of Latin America.

Expand full comment
Scott Kliesen's avatar

Pirates system is stacked with promising hitters in AA and below. BC should be aggressive in promoting these guys to maximize the Skenes/Chandler window.

Expand full comment
Arky Wags's avatar

You mean trading those guys for MLB talent to maximize the window?

Expand full comment
NMR's avatar

thank you!

Expand full comment
Mel Schuster - emjayinTN's avatar

Hard to figure the Altoona Team. TJ is only 21 and is not having his best year, but still leads the team in HR's with 8. Jack Brannigan is definitely a SS possibility, but is on the IL again. He spent a lot of time on the IL last year with a left shoulder injury, and this latest injury is classified as "unspecified"? We have guys like Bowen and Siani, but they are just not leading the way as they should. Cimillo is a an excellent doubles hitter, but where would he play on the field? Mitch Jebb - is he a CF or a SS (919 Fld % in A+), and ZERO HR's so far in AA - not sure what the Pirates saw in him to take him so highly in the draft.

I had previously questioned the hiring of the Manager who had just been terminated by the Red Sox. I figured probably a friend of BC. But, this is basically a lot of the same guys who challenged for the Championship of the South Atlantic League last year and were 20 games over .500 under Blake Butler. We needed to find another young Manager for AA possibly with a managerial style similar to Butler to have consistency as the players continue their development - this looks to be another dropped ball by our GM.

Expand full comment
Aurorus Borealus's avatar

I am not familiar with everyone in the Pirates developmental system, but Blake Butler seems to be one of the few who seems to know what he is doing and what he wants to do. Since they fired Nunnally for competence (which put him in "philosophical difference" with management), I do not get the feeling that anyone at the AA level would be a competent little league coach.

Expand full comment
JRC21's avatar

Blake Butler’s record at Greensboro is phenomenal. And I give him credit because the same guys advance to Altoona and fall flat.

Expand full comment
Aurorus Borealus's avatar

It's funny. If you take over as Pirates' GM in OOTPB, Butler is probably the only member of the entire coaching staff at any level that you keep.

I always thought those coaches ratings were pretty arbitrary. Now I wonder if they are more accurate than I realized.

Expand full comment
Catch22's avatar

I'm struggling to see any blue-chip prospects in AA. Maybe Termarr, but do you think he'll be better than Gonzales? Alfonzo maybe.

They really need to see what they have in Cook, Yorke and even Simon. Jack deserves another shot as well. I guess once they trade Pham, IKF & Frazier, that'll free up space.

Expand full comment
Mel Schuster - emjayinTN's avatar

I had just written a response to Scott regarding AA. They are just not performing at AA. Bowen and Siani looked the parts of Blue Chippers but have both fallen back.

I think TJ will be better than NG. The obvious is that NG is in his age 26 season, and

will most likely have 2 years of MLB Service Time at the end of 2025. TJ will probably start 2026 at AAA and could be up by mid-season, thereby not starting the Service Time Clock until 2027 as a 23 year old. Still waiting to see how NG does this year - he started the year on fire in May 2024, then a lot less the rest of the year.

Jack does deserve another shot, but I hope we can find a young, LH or SW hitting OF who is also strong defensively. The trade of Mitch Keller could bring that. I'm not picky - Josue DePaula or Spencer Jones will do. Jones was a 4/1 K/BB hitter in AA last year (200 K/54 BB). Repeating AA this year he is leading the EL in OPS and his K/BB is down to 2/1. Would we take a trade of Keller to the Yankees for Jones? I think we would need more. DePaula is younger and still in A+ where he is a Top 10 hitter last I looked. Hope is another strong LH hitting OF the Dodgers have at A+ - could we get both?

Expand full comment
Chris Chapman's avatar

What I don’t understand about BC is Yorke, Cook, Peguero, and Nunez are all his guys, but he just has them languish in AAA. Why trade for them in the 1st place? I thought for sure Yorke would make the team out of Spring Training and, I thought Cook would too, but he wasted 4.5 million on Pham when he could have had the same production from Cook. Guys need 500-800 PA’s in the Bigs before you really get a bead on what they may do. I would rather the Pirates struggle with these guys gaining experience than with veterans who have no future and little current value.

Expand full comment
SouthernBuc's avatar

I'll argue some particularly on Peguero and Nunez and this is NOT some defense of BC regarding his full resume(it is bad). Teams trade for players because they think they have potential. It is up to the players AND the team to develop that. Just because he traded for them does not mean they have earned or shown they are ready for MLB and they were not ready when the trades were made. What has Peguero and Nunez(maybe a little this year) done in the last 2 years in AAA to show they should be in MLB? Peggy has face planted at the plate since he lost the spring training battle with Triolo and Nick G for the 2B job in spring of 2024. Nick went to AAA and raked and forced the issue. Net: It is hard enough for those who rake in AAA to transition to MLB (Hank, Nick, past Jack) so what is the logic behind just promoting those who are 'meh' in AAA because they were acquired via trade.

Expand full comment
Chris Chapman's avatar

All good points and I’m not saying everyone should be up here, BUT with an historically bad offense we are dealing with a very low bar. I find it hard to believe that Cook could not have equal or better numbers than Pham, and I doubt that Yorke (though I could be wrong) would not also be equal to or greater than Frazier. Plus you then have both guys adjusting to the actual pitching they need to adjust to. Why not have a younger team growing together than an old team that is bad that will soon be broken up anyway. Why not Suwinski over Canario? Of course, in that case Canario has stuck with the team but now rarely plays. There just isn’t a plan in place or a concrete philosophy that you can say we are trying to execute. If you are going to trade for young guys (Cook actually not so young) some of them need to play.

Expand full comment
SouthernBuc's avatar

Well.. you listed the two I didn't list as disagreeing and added one where I do disagree. Jack was beyond terrible last year and early this year (I will admit those who know better on this site say his secondary stuff shows he had some back luck). Canario / Jack to me are the same.. unlikely to pan out but sometimes there are just roster opportunities. I prefer neither and won't pitch a fit of Jack gets another chance but he's had plenty. Regarding Cook and Yorke, I would have preferred Cook but Yorke was hurt and honestly I want him to show more in AAA since Frazier has been decent. Frazier moved NO needles for actually being a winning team but find it hard to assume Yorke hitting mediocre in AAA would have been better plus in a few cases it has been beneficial for lineup creating that Frazier is a lefty. My biggest beefs were a lot of peoples fascination with Peggy and Nunez being just blah.

Expand full comment
Arky Wags's avatar

Right! Cook and Peguro have, frankly, sucked in Indy. Yorke had the misfortune to get hurt at the same time as NG, and didn’t really get going till well into May. Nunez probably should have gotten a look with Horowitz down, but it’s not the end of the world that he didn’t.

Bottom line: none of those four were kicking the door down in Indy.

Expand full comment
Mel Schuster - emjayinTN's avatar

Nunez was also injured and then spent time rehabbing.

Peguero is a prime example of a kid we wanted badly. When Cruz went down after 9 games and all of the rest were tried at SS, they finally just gave the position to Peguero and he did very well in 2023 as a 22 year old for the Pirates - .960 fldg %age in 39 games at SS, 1.000 fldg %age in 39 games at 2B. Batted .654 OPS. Prior to being promoted to MLB, he was a .786 hitter at AA with 20 doubles and 11 HR in 285 AB, then 27 AB at AAA with an 800+ OPS.

But, after playing that well at the MLB level, BC decided he needed more seasoning time at AAA in 2024 - since then, he has gone to crap, and some will blame his ethnicity - it's just easier than admitting we had a talent and let him die on the vine!

This year he is playing SS sometimes, but most of his games he is playing 2B, 1B, 3B, and CF - he is now another of the many Super UT guys BC has an affinity for. The Pirates have no plans to use him at SS after IKF gets traded. If we did we would have had a Coach working with him 1 on 1 at AAA to improve his defense. Therefore we should just set him free to a team that might just develop that talent that he was showing at AA and MLB in 2023!

Expand full comment
Arky Wags's avatar

I’ll keep this short. Contrary to your comment, Peggy didn’t play well at the MLB level in 2023 when Cruz got hurt. By pretty much any measure.

Expand full comment
Chris Chapman's avatar

Then throw them on the list of failed trades. Diego Castillo, Tucapita Horowitz, Hoy Park, etc….

Expand full comment
SouthernBuc's avatar

I agree on Peggy as you read... tbh Cook had a recent hot streak and I could have lived (still can) on his taking over for Pham and Canario at this point of the season. A point from Chris C I do get.. if there are 'empty' at bats which one could argue with the Pirates record is every Pham at bat, then maybe give them to a player who 'kind of' has earned a shot. With Cook's defense and recent surge I could be convinced. I'd say he is politely knocking on the door not knocking it down.

Expand full comment
agent00's avatar

i swear ben hates his own prospects. it's bizarre how fast he gives up on them

Expand full comment
CTBucco's avatar

Valdez? Fingers crossed.

Expand full comment
Catch22's avatar

Man do I hope I'm wrong, but I'm getting Jose Osuna flashbacks with him.

Expand full comment
bucsws2024's avatar

He's still going, but having a somewhat down year with the Yakuta Swallows, who are a significantly worse team than even the Pirates.

Expand full comment
Mel Schuster - emjayinTN's avatar

Edward Florentino. Just promoted a few weeks ago - 6 Doubles, 3 HR, 9 RBI at BRD, 949 OPS.

Expand full comment