There's Gorski again, twice on the highest EV list. If not now, they're never going to call him up.......well that is until their big signing of the offseason fails or can't swing the bat due to his wrist injury.
Fairly decent prospect who has "this guy is going to be a good reliever" written all over him. Fast/slider guy with a decent changeup, it seems, for lefties. Probably will work 4 innings or so. He is the Nats version of Mlod... basically.
Ugh. The everyday Frazier is really bumming me out. Everyday I look at the lineup card hoping his name won’t be there, and every day I am disappointed. I’d rather see fucking Z in there, literally anyone on the 40.
That jabroni was Ivan Johnson who will probably be added to the 40-man and called up soon once the Reds realize that Espinal is not really a major-league player.
I was hoping they were going to have him finish Bubba's start in preparation for a major league role like that. I'm not sure I liked that they pitched him only 2 innings.
Maybe it’s just the Pirates pathetic offense but if Hunter Greene continues to throw like that he has to be in the running for a cy young soon. Throwing 100 mph bee bees in the later innings with pin point control and a great slider. Doninant looking, and to do it in that park makes it even more impressive
Following the series over the weekend (Friday was the only game I could watch due to MLB's blackout rules), I couldn't help but thinking their ace is as good as our ace and their Cruz is better than our Cruz. (To tie this into what's below, though, the two Cruz's have identical xWOBA's and nearly identical WOBAs (our Cruz is 5 points higher), but EDLC brings a little more value on defense.)
With you on the Cruz's for the reason you state but I can't honestly believe you'd trade Paul Skenes for Hunter Greene straight up right now if you had the chance.
What's interesting is that they have the same years of control due to Greene's extension. The Reds would pay Greene about $67MM through 2029 ('29 is a team option). If Skenes is who we think he is, then I'd guess he'll end up costing a bit more despite this year and next being near the minimum.
In any case, I hope sometime in that stretch we see a late-September matchup between them with the division on the line.
Basically doing it with two pitches, too, although adding that split has coincided with him really taking off over the last two years.
The irony of Minnesota passing over him at 1.1 back in 2017 in order to take the bat, only for the bat to be the perpetually-injured Royce Lewis. That draft is also notable for the two best HS arms - Greene and Gore - correctly getting selected before the two best college arms, Brendan McKay and Kyle Wright. The draft is no time for dogma, in my book.
No on Willits. He looks like a bust in my newest game too: that's twice cursed. Holliday is like a 1st or 2nd overall guy isn't he? JoJo Parker is a no. Hernandez is a yes (but he is also like a 2nd or 3rd overall isn't he?). Carlson is a no.
(Again... I don't really know anything about these guys except for the OOTP ratings, which are hit and miss on prospects, especially prep prospects).
Carlson is…ehhh. Sounds like a no doubt SS, but pretty light at the plate. Don’t know anything about Parker, but the Pipeline guys were talking him up last week.
This was completely unexpected but maybe I've found *some* glimmer of hope that might talk some of yinz off the ledge. Open up the team pages for the Pirates and Dodgers on Baseball Savant and lets compare.
The Dodgers have three players with xWOBAs in the 400s, with Freeman leading the charge at 447. Now, the Pirates only have one (it's the freaking Dodgers c'mon) but shockingly it's Canario with the same 447.
Next, the Dodgers have 6 players with xWOBAs in the 300s while the Pirates actually have 8. And, finally, the Dodgers (Rojas, Muncy, Pages) and Pirates (Endy, Pham, Frazier) both have 3 players with significant ABs with xWOBAs in the 200s.
Now, of course I'm not saying all this to try to make the case that the Pirates lineup is actually closer to the Dodgers than they are far away. I'm not expecting Canario to turn into Freddie Freeman and nobody is going to make the jump to put up numbers like Shohei. What I am saying is that it does seem like the Pirates as a team have been extremely unlucky. Most of our guys are .100-.200 points below their xWOBA and as a team we're .60 points below the expected results.
My point is - eventually these things will even out. And if we can just stop throwing ABs away by giving Pham, Frazier and Endy so much playing time; there might actually be an offense in there that's close to league average.
I think Reynolds 5 hits and 1 homer is close to almost as good as Canario's 2 hits and a walk. :)
Seriously, just from watching the game Ke'Bryan had a helluva week defensively. We have just learned to take it for granted I think. Not to dog on Canario, but he still scares me a little in the field, despite him making a good read and catch this week.
(Anyway, if your point is how awful we were hitting the ball, I agree.)
He hasn't run over anyone yet, dropped a ball in his glove, overthrown the cutoff man, thrown the ball to the wrong base, or let an easily playable ball get behind him, which makes him an upgrade over everyone except Reynolds, Suwinski, and MAT whom the Pirates have had in the OF over the past 5+ years.
Well... like the man says, if you squint real hard and are able to see through the disaster that Cherington and Shelton inflicted on the roster with their adoration of Pham and Frazier and their collective failures to address the problem at 1B, there might be the nucleus of an actual roster here.
Jack has one of the biggest gaps (second to Canario, and I'm not buying Canario's numbers yet due to the SSS), and it will be interesting to see how Shelton and Cherington handle that--do they trust that Jack will regress to being an everyday player (which his xWOBA suggests he should be) or do they send him down due to his traditional stats.
I'll confess that it can be frustrating watching him, yet I want to believe.
Totally agree. I think the only way we can get an idea for how they view it is with the lineup decisions they make and, unfortunately, they've had opportunities to get him in with a RHer on the mound and instead have opted for Pham or Frazier.
And, as I'm sure you noticed, Pham and Frazier are not guys whose xWOBAs provide much hope*--Pham is at .240 and Frazier at .237. At least Ben is happy with what he's gotten out of Pham.
*Their WOBAs are far below their xWOBAs (.192 for Pham, .200 for Frazier), but moving from about .200 to the mid-.200s doesn't inspire much hope for the team/season as a whole.
It's extreme bad luck. As a team they are just below average in xWOBA @ .316 vs MLB ave of .325.
They hit a couple that I thought were gone off the bat yesterday but died on the track. Canario in particular is really getting squeezed with bad luck - xWOBA of .447 compared to a .230 WOBA. The ball really jumps off his bat and he's been limiting the K's. They need to give him an extended run and see if he's due for some good luck.
There is no reason on this team, with the roster as it is (Reynolds limited to DH and so forth), that Canario and Suwinski should be on the bench often.
Totally agree on Canario, he needs an extended look if they're going to know what they have. He might have had some jitters in his first few games, he's looked much better in the field and at the plate (still only an average fielder but the power is real).
I heard Gary Morgan mention this on Locked On Pirates. He said he's watched every Bednar appearance and he's still doing the same things he was in the bigs (hanging curves, fastballs catching too much plate, spiking his splitter in the dirt) but the AAA guys are swinging right through his stuff. Doesn't sound like his control has improved at all but at the very least, gotta be good for his confidence to get the results. I just hope the Pirates don't see the statline and call him back up too soon.
A .415 Winning percentage over the past 5 years of the BC/Derek Shelton regime (2020-2024), and start the 2025 season 5-11. Is there anything more to say? Either we do not have the players needed to compete, or we do not have the Manager who can get positive results with what he has been given. Probably both, but I tend to think Shelton will be the first to go, and it cannot be too far off!
Nice mentions of Konnor Griffin and Termarr Johnson - 2 of our recent first round draft picks and building blocks for the future. We have moved TJ quickly, therefore in AA as a 20 year old who will turn 21 in June. KG, turning 19 in a few days, could be earning himself an early bump to A+ if he continues to show that he can continue to compete well. An .800+ OPS in his first exposure to professional Baseball is hard to ignore - even for the Pirates.
Yup. This Management team made trades for prospects early. They tanked for several years. It's one thing to lose badly for the first few years, because you're tanking to acquire talent, but this is season 6. No excuses for the horrible offense. It's a disaster.
He is the very definition of the "bullpen only," but the Pirates, who are supposedly these geniuses with pitchers, can't figure that out. He has no real solution for left-handed bats, and neither the control nor the stuff is sufficient to keep navigating the order with just a fastball and 2 slider variants. Every starting pitcher needs at least a plan B (and better yet a plan C) for when plan A is not working and to get through the order multiple times. He has no plan B.
Since the Pirates are a AAAA team I think it’s about time to give Gorski a look. If the Cards cut him we would be picking him up on waivers to play 1B.
Oh, Poni tweeted be prepared for BIG development w team. Not holding breath
Apparently Ken Rosenthal is debating the merits of firing Shelton must mean he knows something is happening. Sheltie may be a symptom and not the disease, but he certainly needs to be excised ASAP. This is his shit show.
I read the Rosenthal piece. It includes nine managers who could be in trouble, but notes that in-season firings are rare. Nothing to suggest that Shelton is in immediate jeopardy. (Which doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen, just that he’s not reporting it.)
It’s an odd list. It includes Brandon Hyde, who has done a great job with the Orioles, and Bryan Snitker, who’s taken the Braves regularly to the playoffs.
That’s why posted what I did to counter the implication that Rosenthal was reporting that Shelton was in trouble. His article was just an odd random list of guys who might be in trouble based on pure speculation.
There's Gorski again, twice on the highest EV list. If not now, they're never going to call him up.......well that is until their big signing of the offseason fails or can't swing the bat due to his wrist injury.
Just saw the MLB app notification for the lineup card. You're all going to be VERY surprised at who's playing LF and 2B..... -_-
Do they have an analytics department, because this is precisely the type of pitcher that Suwinski has success against and who Pham cannot hit.
I'm cool with who they have batting 1-2-3.
BTW, who the hell is Brad Lord?
Fairly decent prospect who has "this guy is going to be a good reliever" written all over him. Fast/slider guy with a decent changeup, it seems, for lefties. Probably will work 4 innings or so. He is the Nats version of Mlod... basically.
Ugh. The everyday Frazier is really bumming me out. Everyday I look at the lineup card hoping his name won’t be there, and every day I am disappointed. I’d rather see fucking Z in there, literally anyone on the 40.
I hate to say this but I strongly doubt the pirates will ever get to .500 this year or possibly ever.
No chance this year but I'd give ever a 50/50.
Some 26 yo jabrone turned around 101 from Bubba yesterday for a dinger.
Yep, he was probably surprised as well. Probably had his eyes closed lol
That jabroni was Ivan Johnson who will probably be added to the 40-man and called up soon once the Reds realize that Espinal is not really a major-league player.
Somewhat notable that they rolled Harrington out of the Indy pen yesterday?
I was hoping they were going to have him finish Bubba's start in preparation for a major league role like that. I'm not sure I liked that they pitched him only 2 innings.
In spring training Shelton took Harrington out of the game multiple times. One time Harrington only threw 3 pitches.
Maybe to keep him on regular rest and...then to take Chandler's spot in the rotation?
Maybe it’s just the Pirates pathetic offense but if Hunter Greene continues to throw like that he has to be in the running for a cy young soon. Throwing 100 mph bee bees in the later innings with pin point control and a great slider. Doninant looking, and to do it in that park makes it even more impressive
Following the series over the weekend (Friday was the only game I could watch due to MLB's blackout rules), I couldn't help but thinking their ace is as good as our ace and their Cruz is better than our Cruz. (To tie this into what's below, though, the two Cruz's have identical xWOBA's and nearly identical WOBAs (our Cruz is 5 points higher), but EDLC brings a little more value on defense.)
With you on the Cruz's for the reason you state but I can't honestly believe you'd trade Paul Skenes for Hunter Greene straight up right now if you had the chance.
I don’t think Hunter Greene’s family would make that trade either.
I would not.
What's interesting is that they have the same years of control due to Greene's extension. The Reds would pay Greene about $67MM through 2029 ('29 is a team option). If Skenes is who we think he is, then I'd guess he'll end up costing a bit more despite this year and next being near the minimum.
In any case, I hope sometime in that stretch we see a late-September matchup between them with the division on the line.
Basically doing it with two pitches, too, although adding that split has coincided with him really taking off over the last two years.
The irony of Minnesota passing over him at 1.1 back in 2017 in order to take the bat, only for the bat to be the perpetually-injured Royce Lewis. That draft is also notable for the two best HS arms - Greene and Gore - correctly getting selected before the two best college arms, Brendan McKay and Kyle Wright. The draft is no time for dogma, in my book.
The lady and I took in a Sunday matinee game in Minnesota this weekend on our trip there. Surprisingly enough, Royce Lewis was hurt and didn’t play!
It certainly seems like when the prep arms hit, they hit big. So…Seth Hernandez anyone?
I'd take him, I think he'll be gone by pick 6 though.
Kruz Schoolcraft, I say!
He's one of the 6 prep players I would be happy with at pick 6.
JoJo Parker, Carlson, Willits, Schoolcraft, Hernandez, and Holliday with a couple others that are close.
No on Willits. He looks like a bust in my newest game too: that's twice cursed. Holliday is like a 1st or 2nd overall guy isn't he? JoJo Parker is a no. Hernandez is a yes (but he is also like a 2nd or 3rd overall isn't he?). Carlson is a no.
(Again... I don't really know anything about these guys except for the OOTP ratings, which are hit and miss on prospects, especially prep prospects).
Carlson is…ehhh. Sounds like a no doubt SS, but pretty light at the plate. Don’t know anything about Parker, but the Pipeline guys were talking him up last week.
When they don’t hit you have Brendan Malone!😳
I could be talked into Seth Hernandez however
This was completely unexpected but maybe I've found *some* glimmer of hope that might talk some of yinz off the ledge. Open up the team pages for the Pirates and Dodgers on Baseball Savant and lets compare.
The Dodgers have three players with xWOBAs in the 400s, with Freeman leading the charge at 447. Now, the Pirates only have one (it's the freaking Dodgers c'mon) but shockingly it's Canario with the same 447.
Next, the Dodgers have 6 players with xWOBAs in the 300s while the Pirates actually have 8. And, finally, the Dodgers (Rojas, Muncy, Pages) and Pirates (Endy, Pham, Frazier) both have 3 players with significant ABs with xWOBAs in the 200s.
Now, of course I'm not saying all this to try to make the case that the Pirates lineup is actually closer to the Dodgers than they are far away. I'm not expecting Canario to turn into Freddie Freeman and nobody is going to make the jump to put up numbers like Shohei. What I am saying is that it does seem like the Pirates as a team have been extremely unlucky. Most of our guys are .100-.200 points below their xWOBA and as a team we're .60 points below the expected results.
My point is - eventually these things will even out. And if we can just stop throwing ABs away by giving Pham, Frazier and Endy so much playing time; there might actually be an offense in there that's close to league average.
Hmmm, confirming NMR's post sometime last week. OK, I'll come in off the ledge for a bit.
I need to take the Jerry Seinfeld "even steven" attitude. I don't care we lost those three because it means we will now win 3.
Canario has been the Pirates best position player for the past week, and it is not close.
I think Reynolds 5 hits and 1 homer is close to almost as good as Canario's 2 hits and a walk. :)
Seriously, just from watching the game Ke'Bryan had a helluva week defensively. We have just learned to take it for granted I think. Not to dog on Canario, but he still scares me a little in the field, despite him making a good read and catch this week.
(Anyway, if your point is how awful we were hitting the ball, I agree.)
He hasn't run over anyone yet, dropped a ball in his glove, overthrown the cutoff man, thrown the ball to the wrong base, or let an easily playable ball get behind him, which makes him an upgrade over everyone except Reynolds, Suwinski, and MAT whom the Pirates have had in the OF over the past 5+ years.
Yikes
Well... like the man says, if you squint real hard and are able to see through the disaster that Cherington and Shelton inflicted on the roster with their adoration of Pham and Frazier and their collective failures to address the problem at 1B, there might be the nucleus of an actual roster here.
Jack has one of the biggest gaps (second to Canario, and I'm not buying Canario's numbers yet due to the SSS), and it will be interesting to see how Shelton and Cherington handle that--do they trust that Jack will regress to being an everyday player (which his xWOBA suggests he should be) or do they send him down due to his traditional stats.
I'll confess that it can be frustrating watching him, yet I want to believe.
Totally agree. I think the only way we can get an idea for how they view it is with the lineup decisions they make and, unfortunately, they've had opportunities to get him in with a RHer on the mound and instead have opted for Pham or Frazier.
And, as I'm sure you noticed, Pham and Frazier are not guys whose xWOBAs provide much hope*--Pham is at .240 and Frazier at .237. At least Ben is happy with what he's gotten out of Pham.
*Their WOBAs are far below their xWOBAs (.192 for Pham, .200 for Frazier), but moving from about .200 to the mid-.200s doesn't inspire much hope for the team/season as a whole.
Great comment...
It's extreme bad luck. As a team they are just below average in xWOBA @ .316 vs MLB ave of .325.
They hit a couple that I thought were gone off the bat yesterday but died on the track. Canario in particular is really getting squeezed with bad luck - xWOBA of .447 compared to a .230 WOBA. The ball really jumps off his bat and he's been limiting the K's. They need to give him an extended run and see if he's due for some good luck.
There is no reason on this team, with the roster as it is (Reynolds limited to DH and so forth), that Canario and Suwinski should be on the bench often.
Totally agree on Canario, he needs an extended look if they're going to know what they have. He might have had some jitters in his first few games, he's looked much better in the field and at the plate (still only an average fielder but the power is real).
He seems fine at either corner OF position. Now CF... that's another issue.;
Very real.
Bednar at AAA. 4 IP. 0 H. 0 R. 0 BB. 5 K.
Hopefully he’s figuring something out.
I heard Gary Morgan mention this on Locked On Pirates. He said he's watched every Bednar appearance and he's still doing the same things he was in the bigs (hanging curves, fastballs catching too much plate, spiking his splitter in the dirt) but the AAA guys are swinging right through his stuff. Doesn't sound like his control has improved at all but at the very least, gotta be good for his confidence to get the results. I just hope the Pirates don't see the statline and call him back up too soon.
Good info. Been wondering about that.
The Pirates got swept by a team who hit roughly .163 in the series because the Pirates had a batting average of roughly .110 in the series.
A .415 Winning percentage over the past 5 years of the BC/Derek Shelton regime (2020-2024), and start the 2025 season 5-11. Is there anything more to say? Either we do not have the players needed to compete, or we do not have the Manager who can get positive results with what he has been given. Probably both, but I tend to think Shelton will be the first to go, and it cannot be too far off!
Nice mentions of Konnor Griffin and Termarr Johnson - 2 of our recent first round draft picks and building blocks for the future. We have moved TJ quickly, therefore in AA as a 20 year old who will turn 21 in June. KG, turning 19 in a few days, could be earning himself an early bump to A+ if he continues to show that he can continue to compete well. An .800+ OPS in his first exposure to professional Baseball is hard to ignore - even for the Pirates.
Yup. This Management team made trades for prospects early. They tanked for several years. It's one thing to lose badly for the first few years, because you're tanking to acquire talent, but this is season 6. No excuses for the horrible offense. It's a disaster.
Try tanking for 25 or more years with nothing to shoe for it.
Mlod’s opponents’ OPS:
1st time thru — .546
2nd time thru — .964
Birdbrain and Dumbo: “He should be starting!”
They're dead set on forcing someone into the *Ortiz Role*
Guess what, that’s exactly how it was in the minors before they made him a reliever.
hey they've gotta see what they have.
I’ll go further and say that it’s still early and he should get a chance to work through it, but to what end, what’s his upside, etc..
Worth noting that also may work out a role as multi inning shutdown guy though. Valuable if applied right!
He is the very definition of the "bullpen only," but the Pirates, who are supposedly these geniuses with pitchers, can't figure that out. He has no real solution for left-handed bats, and neither the control nor the stuff is sufficient to keep navigating the order with just a fastball and 2 slider variants. Every starting pitcher needs at least a plan B (and better yet a plan C) for when plan A is not working and to get through the order multiple times. He has no plan B.
They did virtually nothing to address the lack of offense. Shocking development: Pirates start the season with one of the worst offenses in baseball.
I'm starting to think it wasn't the hitting coach, I dunno.
You enjoyed that, didn't you. :)
If history is any guide, it took about 3 months for the Haines' effect to wear off the Brewers after he was fired.
Since the Pirates are a AAAA team I think it’s about time to give Gorski a look. If the Cards cut him we would be picking him up on waivers to play 1B.
Oh, Poni tweeted be prepared for BIG development w team. Not holding breath
Apparently Ken Rosenthal is debating the merits of firing Shelton must mean he knows something is happening. Sheltie may be a symptom and not the disease, but he certainly needs to be excised ASAP. This is his shit show.
I read the Rosenthal piece. It includes nine managers who could be in trouble, but notes that in-season firings are rare. Nothing to suggest that Shelton is in immediate jeopardy. (Which doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen, just that he’s not reporting it.)
It’s an odd list. It includes Brandon Hyde, who has done a great job with the Orioles, and Bryan Snitker, who’s taken the Braves regularly to the playoffs.
If I name all these managers, someone is bound to get canned!
That’s why posted what I did to counter the implication that Rosenthal was reporting that Shelton was in trouble. His article was just an odd random list of guys who might be in trouble based on pure speculation.
Oh yeah fully agree! What a weird article. Felt like he had some odds and ends info to get out there.
Maybe the next guy won’t use Adam Frazier as an everyday player!
...or Endy, or Pham, or Valdez, or...
They have about 4 legit MLB offensive players that are healthy right now.
Manager won't fix that, but I agree time to shake things up. Maybe a new voice in the clubhouse will make the hits fall.