90 Comments

Blatant misdisinfo over at Bucsdugout these days:

"Despite an improving record, albeit slowly, the Pirates leader in bWAR thus far is...

wait for it... Bailey F'n Falter!!! "

Given the poster who most likely receives remuneration from the front office didn't specify hitter or pitcher, the correct answer is:

1. Mitch Keller at 2.3 bWAR

2. Bryan Reynolds at 1.9 bWAR

3. Bailey Falter at 1.8 bWAR

4. Paul Skenes at 1.6 bWAR who'll certainly pass Falter his next start

Not that bWAR is worth much given it's penchant for overrating defense. fWAR has Keller, Jones and Skenes above Falter with Hunter Stratton tied with him, fwiw, on the pitching side with Reynolds, Cruz and Gonzo above him on the hitting side with Joey Bart tied from his small sample.

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My man, who the F cares about such pettiness?

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Who cares about front office shills pushing positivity influence schemes on baseball blogs? I guess I do. A little. It'd be better if the team focused on, you know, actually building a good roster instead of paying jannies to convince folks on the internet the crappy one they have built is good actually.

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This confirms that you are in fact a mental patient, Snowden.

They're in your iPhone, too...make sure you cover up the camera on your laptop or Cherington will see you...

Honest question - how old are you? Why aren't you at work?

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I'm independently wealthy. What's your excuse?

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DK claims Ben has money to make significant moves but it's all on him to make them or not.

"This comes from the figurative top floor of the Pirates' structure: They're drop-dead serious about contending this summer, they've got every intention of adding to the roster where applicable, and they'll make such moves ... when Ben Cherington's ready and not a millisecond sooner.

Again, that's not from me. And that's absolutely not a prediction from me, either. Rather, it's from them. A very important one of them."

"All I've got on this. No specifics came close to being shared.

• From another part of 115 Federal: Cherington can't be rushed. Just not in his DNA. He's famous internally, in fact, for forever deliberating even the most diminutive of potential transactions."

Cherington sounds like a ditherer. Terrible quality in a GM or a leader of any sort.

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They're watching you...bolt up the doors and put the tin foil on.

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If you don't think $B teams have social media analysts crawling all over sports blogs running influence campaigns you're just showing your age and lack of understanding of contemporary internet.

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Noah Hiles discussed a mock trade earlier:

Suwinski & Peguero to the A’s for JJ Bleday

Which team says no?

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I'd say yes if the A's sent some hitting development staff along with Bleday because our guys have no f'ing clue. A trade I like even better is Bleday and Rooker for Suwinski and Chandler.

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How about Harrington and Peguero for Bleday and whatever high upside 17-year-old lottery ticket the A’s would be willing to part with?

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I think if the A's say YES to that they know something about Bleday we don't...

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Man, I want Bleday but as you alluded to, why would the A's trade him if he has 4 years of team control. Company I work for has a facility in Titusville, PA. I get up there 3-4 times per year and there is a ton of history. Bleday was from Titusville, until he moved in the 9th grade...Dad is/was an orthopedic surgeon. Moved to Florida for better job opportunity. TVL is also the birthplace of the oil industry and John Heisman was raised in TVL. Cool little slice of Americana up there...Probably count the number of Democrats on one hand.

All that said, I'd trade Jack and Liover for JJ in a heartbeat.

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One thing I've noticed about JJ, he's moving his hands and bat right before his load, similar to what he did in college. When he was with the Marlins he kept them fairly still before the load. Very likely the A's thought they could fix him by going back to what worked for him. The Marlins have a worse reputation for hitting prospects than even the pirates. The fish might have broke something that was perfectly fine, while the A's knew they had a chance to fix it.

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As say NO. Currently, neither Suwinsky nor Peguero have ANY trade value! I like the idea of getting Bleday, but you have to give up a player with some value or upside!!!

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Funny thing is you could have said the same thing about Bleday before this season. His BA the previous 2 seasons was .167 & .195 with an OPS. Of .585 & .656. He had negative trade value and was basically given away as a bust by Florida. Sure his .800 OPS looks good this season but Suwinski had the same .800 OPS last season. Just sayin!

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Bleday was a top 20 overall prospect 3 years ago and as you pointed out with his numbers, he was nothing close to that in his first two seasons. They traded him for AJ Puk who was actually a top 100 prospect 4 years in a row for Oakland and as good as number 32 overall. He pitched ok when he pitched, but most of the time he was injured.

It was a classic change of scenery trade that involved one former prospect for another former prospect.

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I think I would pull the trigger- possible Bleday is just having an outlier season but he has been good. I might ask for a middle reliever to be thrown in but the framework looks intriguing

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Did I miss the FanGraphs list talk?

A bit anticlimactic but damn is that thorough.

Mike Burrows LFGGGG.

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Think Nola and I gonna talk about it on the podcast. Certainly some interesting stuff and the more we looked/talked about it the more confusing it got

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Don't think it's been discussed here, beyond my posting the quote on Matoma. It's one of FG's more interesting efforts, mostly not in a good way if you're a Pirate fan.

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Agree, I was surprised how high they are on some of the Latin American young guys. You won’t see DeLos Santos, Matima, Delgado, Suero and Blanco on too many top 15 lists. And the fact that Solometo dropped so much is very concerning with his assignment to the development list.

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Jun 20Edited

At the risk of just confirming my priors, this is the only Solometo report that really makes sense to me for basically every point they make.

The stuff is mid, hasn't really ticked up, and while his delivery may have funk it very much is not "deceptive" based on the definition commonly used in baseball. Deception is derived from hiding the ball behind the body until it seemingly explodes off the shoulder, and Solo shows the hitter the ball longer than you playing fetch with your dog.

If he went to school instead of signing and was coming into the draft as a 21 yo college junior with his current profile, is that anything more than a mid-top 10 round sign?

Seems like he's still riding on pedigree quite a bit.

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Jun 20Edited

It's not that they're high on these guys. They regard nearly all of them as potential role players or up-and-down guys at best. They're on the list because the upper levels of the system are in horrendous shape once you get past Skenes, Jones and a few other pitchers. The key phrase is that it's an "average, top-heavy" system. Once Skenes and Jones are ineligible for the list, they're going to plummet down near the bottom of MLB.

The lesson that comes across from that list is that Cherington's one skill is winning lotteries, and that doesn't even seem to be repeatable.

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Well said.

The foreseeable system is both expected from a rebuilding team who has pushed just about all of their prospect bounty into the show *and* pretty demoralizing when the new guy's entire pitch was a sustainable stream of talent.

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Looking at the system is definitely more depressing than it was coming into the season. The hugely disappointing seasons of Johnson, Solometo, Jebb, Chang, Brannigan, Shim, and White would shed a negative light on any system. I still like our top 10 but some impact hitters have to emerge

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They're basically hoping to win the lottery with guys like Severino and Suero (who's out with a broken hamate for anybody who hasn't read the entry). It's a hail Mary from a FO that probably knows it's botched things badly.

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You're giving them a lot of credit if you think they know they've botched things. If that is the case (I think they blissfully think they're on the right track), hopefully that will lead to some changes, and perhaps hiring another assistant GM (Sarah Gelles) this past offseason was a step in that direction.

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They are going to need some hail-mary lightning hits and quickly. They don't have the prospects to patch the holes with even-value trades. They don't have the budget to patch the holes with high-value veterans, and they don't have any prospects in the upper levels who fit any team need.

It's going to take luck and very crafty GMing to open a window and keep it open for the next 4-5 years while they have Skenes, Jones, Cruz, Keller, et al. Cherington might get lucky, but he is not crafty. They really need to change the front office now... yesterday.. even. To waste the years that we have a generational talent like Skenes is boderline criminal mismanagement.

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Does Pete alonso, jazz Chisholm and another back end reliever make this team a playoff team? I think it does, just not sure how much they would need to give up.

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Yeah, I like it.

I feel like one or two good bats is really the key. The pitching is so solid on the big club right now, and additionally that is where most of the potential for “addition from within” comes from too. There are guys in the system that can potentially move up to fill an injury in the rotation…or pick up for the rookies if they start getting their innings throttled back…or throw out of the pen for the stretch run. Just don’t see much of the same near term help from bats portion of their MiLB group. Could be wrong tho 🤷‍♂️🙂

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I think Jazz makes us better. I think Alonso will not be traded since the Mets are only a game out of the wild card. I would personally would prefer another starter or long releiver as opposed to another one inning guy. When the Pirates bullpen has had issues, it is because we don't have enough available relievers.

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Yeah I’ve thought the same about the Mets. I could see them still selling but I could also see them going all in. We will see, but marte and Alonso wouldn’t be terrible either if they do sell. I would love to get a few bullpen arms from the marlins too.

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The Mets are on a roll right now. In fact, Fanduel has the Mets with a better chance of making the play-offs than the Pirates..... by over twice as much.

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Yeah I’m not surprised by that. I think there may be a lot of buying and selling by a lot of teams at the deadline.

I just want the pirates in the playoffs haha

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Some odd scheduling. SF is in St. Louis for a 3 game set scheduled for Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. No Friday game. Is there a concert scheduled on Friday?

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Travel day back from Birmingham.

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Nine teams are within 1.5 games of each other for the last two wildcard spots. It will be interesting to see which of those teams more-or-less stand pat (guessing the defending NL champs won't feel like they need to do much), which teams make moves around the edges, and which teams make big moves.

It has to be a sellers market right now, and so I expect us to just make some moves around the edges.

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I go back and forth on this. One would think it should be a sellers market because only 5 of the 30 teams are not in a race [Angels, Athletics, White Sox, Rockies, Marlins]. On the other hand, there are only 3 teams above .500 that are fighting for a play-off spot. [Twins, Royals, Red Sox]. Thiere are 7 teams that look like locks to make the play-offs that don't have to go all in. That leaves 15 of the 30 teams that are in contention that are below .500. Teams might just take their chances with what they have rather than mortgage the farm to make a short series with all road games.

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Yep. I also think that with that many teams in the murky middle, we don’t see any moves for another month. Teams in that middle are highly unlikely to sell now because a) it’s still too early to surrender and b) if you’re trading a month early, the price (correctly) will be higher and trade partners are unlikely to pay that price.

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if its a sellers market, that only means that the 3 month rentals are more expensive

the amount of prospect return is the same for sellers or buyers market if the targeted allstar has multiple years of control

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I think you mean multiple years of control at a fair value. There are plenty of players teams would like to pick up for the last 3 months, but don't want to get stuck with the remaining years and dollars of the contract.

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ie Marte

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Won’t be surprised if they both add and subtract between now and deadline. I’ll be very surprised if they are players for bigger names. But man, wouldn’t Luis Robert fix two issues on this roster, middle of order bopper and everyday CF.

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Good piece on the athletic that does point out his red flags (durability, chase rate). I’d still be bigly interested though.

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He ain’t perfect, but he would fit perfectly between Reynolds and Cruz.

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He would. I’d also be willing to go for Jazz hands at a lower price.

If I’m feeling extra weird? Luzardo. Maybe it’s because I’m telling myself that they double down on the strongest part of the team. The offense is unlikely to be fixed in one deadline anyway.

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I'm all aboard the Jazz or Lou Bob train. Either would add much needed impact to our lineup

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Peguero heating up

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This is where you would think Peggy would be getting some games in the oufield to add a little versatility. The Pirates drafted or traded for several middle infielders that have never played a game in the outfield.

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turning infielders into outfielders is our specialy...

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He's having a very good month, but I was also optimistic after his April and then he had a poor May. Love to see him sustain it, but if he shows he's ready for the majors, where does he fit?

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Replace Triolo?

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starting shortstop against left handed pitchers

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I don't like the idea of bringing up a prospect and having him as the weak half of a platoon, but if he replaces Triolo and gets some starts at other spots when a righty is on the mound, then that would be okay. I assume that he could take turns at 3B and of course he can play 2B on occasion.

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Nick is cooling off so he could get some at bats at second base too

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cannot have triolo and Hayes in the same lineup

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Triolo hasn't done much to justify his 26-man spot and may benefit from getting everyday starts. I'd probably give it another week after this one but if Peguero keeps hitting, then we should flip those two.

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The rest of the NL should take notice of both the Pirates and Reds who showed they both have enough quality pitching to make it through a 3 game series. Cannot wait to see the trade fires burning for adding a few long term bats to the Pirates lineup. I think Endy and Henry will solidify the Catcher position, and the Pirates are well stocked at the 2B, SS, 3B, LF, and RF positions. CF continues to be a continuing issue, and somebody to provide some power and D from CF would be an excellent add.

The Pirates are loaded with the resources just about every other team looks for in trade and that is Pitching. Seattle does not seem to need Pitching but they have a young, switchhitting CF, Jonatan Clase, 22. Detroit has a few CF's in Wenceel Perez, 24 and Parker Meadows, 24. Alex Ramirez, 21 of the Mets could possibly cost the most. The Yankees will also be trying to trade Everson Pereira, 23, who just underwent season ending surgery (TJ ?).

Of course, this is old stuff and nobody seems to know what is going on between the ears of BC.

Well pitched game by Wilber Dotel to keep GBO in 1st Place - is the First half over? Nice to see TJ with a HR.

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There's no denying that CF is a primary need currently. It's an important position and the guys they are throwing out there are hurting the team instead of helping it.

Did you accidentally or conveniently forget about first base? Unless there's now a rush to accept Rowdy as a long-term solution, which I cannot imagine. I'm also having a hard time identifying what "stock" the Pirates have for RF. Olivares is replacement level, which is better than some of the guys they've thrown out there but still not adequate, and Joe's an infielder who does his best to play he position. He also has been hitting way over his head for the first couple of months but has been a .137 hitter so far in June with his expected level of play falling somewhere in between.

The needs are basically the same they have been for the last couple of years. A good first baseman and two outfielders. Waiting and hoping BC and his owner will finally address them with some kind of quality players has become a yearly disappointment and will remain so unless they decide, as Smoltz said yesterday, to change their entire philosophy and decide to try to win.

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BC has either been instructed to not make a “big move,” or he realizes an Archer type move failing will cost him his job.

Not a fan of GM’s who do just enough to keep their job.

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I’m sure his experience with taking big swings in Boston soured him too. Rusney Castillo, Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, etc.

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I'm pickin' up what yer layin' down, Mel. I feel like the Logjam Central is an interesting study in current trends in beisbol. Each team has something to recommend it, but not quite rounded...

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You can't always get what you want, I suppose.

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If I'm reading the tea leaves correctly (and there's no saying tea leaves know a damn thing), I think the Pirates' approach to finding third gear here is going to be much more subtle. I think it revolves around pitching and bringing that pitching from within. The most expensive comodity in the game, and we've got more than a little bubbling under.

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Skenes-Keller-Jones is a pretty tight top of the rotation. Falter is a more than adequate back end guy and when you add the lefty (Perez, is it? injured currently?) I think the Bucs have enough to have a chance to win every day... and I cannot remember the last time I typed THAT sentence.

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The Pirates have been successful again this year in throwing out low-cost bullpen games of decent pitchers who just can't DO five innings. This is a low-cost way of getting a winning record out of fungible pitching. Last year and this year, I believe the Bucs have a winning record in such games.

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When you look at Ortiz and some of the other guys who can go out and get you FOUR innings, you're doing something that other teams have difficulty with. You can prep for and try to game plan against Keller; it's just that he has made this leap. But how do you prep for five different guys coming at you, all with velocity and all with different arm angles. The MONEY is in the fact that a lineup tends not to hit a guy well on the first trip through the order. They improve on the second trip. And they hit over .300 the third time they see a guy. That tendency makes use of the fact that 2/3 of the Pirates top prospects are pitchers all of whom have something to offer.

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Burroughs, Ashcraft and others are coming. I think it likely that the Pirates rotation by sometime next year will have the stuff of some of those great Braves teams of the day.

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The Pirates don't HAVE to go shopping. Standing pat will show them finding third gear. Might not happen until next season, but with one more strong starter this team is going places. They already have a rotation that can shut you down in a three-game playoff.

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This is fun. I'm looking forward to going down to Blair County Ballpark and taking in the next series against Akron.

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Much love to all the inmates in the asylum.

____________________________________

"Where's the ka-boom?! There was supposed to be an Earth-Shattering Ka-Boom??!!"

-Wabbit

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Sell the farm for Trout

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About 5 years late for this post. Only guy out there worth selling the farm for is Robert. I give Pirates about a 2% chance to acquire him.

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Why? So he can play 20 games and get hurt again. I would've loved Trout years ago but gutting the farm for him now doesn't make much sense to me

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Once you get past Skenes and Jones, there isn't anything on the farm that'd be enough for Trout, anyway.

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With what he's owed and his inability to stay on the field the last few years, Trout's contract is upside down and by a lot. BTV has its fans and detractors but I tend to see it as a best of bad options we have to guess at trade values. There Trout's surplus value is pegged at -127. His annual future value is pegged on par with basically a Bryan Reynolds sort of value but he's paid quite differently. Still a very valuable player but one who'd have to come with a ton of money paying down his contract, too.

It's probably just demonstrative of Trout being 100% untradeable but Trout, $100M + Reid Detmers for Quinn Priester in return is a "fair value".

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i'm sorry but that's absolutely fucking absurd

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I get you saying that but I did say "he's probably just untradable"

Here's an article that suggests all the Angels could really get is payroll relief: https://halohangout.com/posts/the-athletic-pitches-angels-mike-trout-trade-scenario-with-unexpected-west-coast-team-01j043c7ns6p

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I think Trout wants to stay an Angel so he won't be traded. If he ever did want to be traded, I'm not sure there would be that bidding war because he is still owed over 200 million.

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I was half-expecting a Conner Scott highlight. Right position, wrong guy.

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