Im not sold on profar, i dont mind letting someone else take him. Admittedly, the braves are a pretty well run org so maybe they see something that makes them think he can repeat at least some semblance of last year
I mean, they probably see it as a breakeven if he provides a little over 4-5 WAR for the entire contract. Very doable, but also very risky considering he’s been so inconsistent his entire career.
If you are a consistent 4 to 5 war guy, wouldn't you be signing a 5 year contract for $100 million plus? I only wish the Pirates would sign these guys. I had plenty of guys I would prefer over Profar.
Profar has plenty of positives. He brings a lot of energy, which I think our offense and clubhouse needs. Last year he was not only an all-star, but also received MVP votes.
He also has plenty of negatives. Like you said he has had many more bad seasons than good. He strikes out a lot. He is a below average fielder. Most of all, his energy could have a negative impact.
Players with many negatives keeps the cost down and makes it a possibilty for the Pirates to sign. Sadly, these type of players are the only guys the Pirates can hope for. High upside, but realistically they will probably be bad.
(Sorry for rambling. I think we are on the same page.)
He suffered substantial injury transitioning from AAA to MLB that set him back several years. He has kind of quietly gotten better over the years and finally put it all together. I think that he will be a decent player, but I doubt that he can replicate last year 3 more times.
The only thing I see is that he can take a walk. He had a -1.6 fWAR in 2023, and his 2024 Statcast metrics make absolutely no sense in the context of the rest of his career. Idk, finally figuring it out at 32/33 yo, that’s a hard pass for me at 3/42. This is the same guy that signed a 1-yr contract a year ago for $1m and ended up making $2.5m with incentives. I think it’s more reasonable that he finally had one of those +80 percentile years that everyone previously thought was his ceiling, and now he’ll be chasing that for the rest of his career.
Fair question because most of his years are just average. He was the number one prospect in baseball way back in 2013 and even though that was 100 years ago, I still think the guy probably has tools. Would I bet on him? No. Would I think he is a good gamble for 3 year 42 million? Yes. The only free agents we are going to sign for that price and only 3 years are going to have uncertainty.
LOL! I almost posted something like that. The evil empire tells Ro when they trade him to have a good start in Pittsburgh to make all the fans think that the deal was a good one for the Bucs then pull back the reins after the first season and make the league think you aren’t good and we will of course get you back as soon as possible. Then you can pitch like you can and we will make it worth your while 😁
More attention to the Pirates for another international signing, this time Robinson Smith from Australia. His mother swam in the Olympics for Australia. He is 17 and throws 95.
To me, thinking in a way that probably does not compute for baseball whiz-o-metrics... We've got a vanilla chance. I think the Bucs punched above their weight last season, sure, but they did punch.
To me, improvements, if incremental, might be enough to get the pirates over that late season swoon. Whether or not the rest of the division has improved to move that goalpost for us... well...
Starting with the obvious, the rotation is good. If the defense is decent, we're in a good place.
Right field is fungible-city, but... surely... Mike Wazowski will recover from that awful 2024, right? I like that zips is giving him a chance. And I've always rooted for Suwinski. A guy I'd love to see make it. It is possible Cook could make that platoon work? If so, it's a marginal improvement, yes?
I see first, second and third being mid-twos in zips. That would mean a decent year from Hayes, Nick the Stick, and Horwitz. Those would be marginal improvements.
Bullpen has to stop lighting sparklers in the fireworks factory.
BRey might be coming out late for defense...
Interesting article. To me, the big x-factor is Bubba Chandler. If he does anything approaching Jared Jones's thing from last season, we have a major improvement on our hands and a very deep rotation. I could see Oviedo and Falter piggy-backing.
End of the day we have a plain cheese sandwich team. Might not be delicious, but it might just get us through. And, in the sense of "teams" and how they work, perhaps this team could be more than the sum of its parts.
And that is all from the land of Polyanna.
____________________________________
“It just goes to show ya that a one-eyed jackrabbit can beat a king.”
Have to say ... if Cruz, Reynolds or someone doesn't exceed 3 WAR then this offense is as horrible as it looks. Too bad Yorke or Nick G. don't fit at ss. IKF is an offensive hole there. Too bad Hayes is always an "if only" and cannot be counted upon. I guess I'm relatively happy at catcher. SP has to show beyond top 10 with this penciled in offense and that is a possibility, but variable due to youth.
Am I wrong to read exactly that into Szym's take here?
"Considering this, if the Pirates aren’t going to spend more — which they surely will not — they should instead roll the dice a little bit more to get some low-cost, high-upside players. As of now, though, that isn’t what they’re doing, and that’s a shame... "
Like I get it, Cherington doesn't really have the option of signing 3-4 WAR hitters, but at some point you have to take a shot on a boom/bust slot or two in the lineup. Cruz is obviously one, and I genuinely like the Horwitz acquisition, but i can't help but feel like there was room for one more high beta dude on the field and he chose to shoot for 82-win baseball.
I know the group here is generally against it but I feel like Robert Jr. is the only somewhat conceivable big swing there is left. Sox would have to eat money but in the vein of trying for an actual, big improvement, Id be all in as long as Chandler is untouchable. Of course, there's a fair chance it blows up but if we wanna win with Paul around we have to take some real swings
There’s arguably still time to do that in RF via the trade route? Probably the only guy left in FA who potentially offers such upside for the OF is Profar, which I doubt is happening. Although I’m sure they’d love having a guy with his athleticism and versatility.
The high beta trade dudes are gonna look a lot like Michael A Taylor and BDLC. Suwinski/Yorke RF platoon has enough floor/upside combo for me, at least in 2025, not to risk an implosion.
Kim is the way. push IKF to a UT role where he belongs. have to take on the risk of the shoulder / not playing a full '25 to balance out the cost, but the upside is big
Without a better option in RF and SS and without a somewhat healthy Hayes, this isn't even shooting for 82. It's shooting for a winning season only if every conceivable thing goes right which is more optimistic than candy canes and lollipops.
I always hope I'm wrong when I'm pessimistic about the Bucs! As a kid, I was an optimist when they were winning and my mother was an optimist when they were losing. I don't know if that messed me up completely or if that makes me something of a realist.
broken record, but I could at least squint to see the strategery if he also went all-in on the bullpen.
Big boy rotation backed by an elite-ish pen can absolutely get you to 88ish wins with a lineup of 1-2 WAR "avoid the awful" position players. But feels to me like they're a backend guy or two short of that unless Bednar turns into a phoenix from the ashes.
Sign Estevez, and this team starts to look like it might have a chance if things go well and they stay reasonably healthy. Won't happen though. Stingy owner who will never, ever throw the fans a bone or even scraps from the table, and a GM who likes to nickle and dime away his budget on the IKFs of the league.
Johnny O! That guy could freaking hit. He put up an 8 win season in 98 and I’ll bet almost no one remembers. When you dig into it, he had a really good career. Those 1B with great hit, but not monster power numbers always get overlooked.
I remember Merced coming to my elementary school. Him and the Pirate parrot. Also remember Eric Green playing with other Steelers vs the high school team in hoops.
The Mayor. Didn't he have a steel plate in his face?
This Zips article is one of the better statements on the state of the Pirates that I have read. I agree completely with these gems...
"Moving Oneil Cruz to center field isn’t the worst idea around, but you’d like to see the organization’s grand plan involve something more ambitious than Isiah Kiner-Falefa playing shortstop every day."
"A reclamation project or a gamble or two, rather than filling out the roster with known quantities, would have been a lot more interesting at some of these positions."
"Considering this, if the Pirates aren’t going to spend more — which they surely will not — they should instead roll the dice a little bit more to get some low-cost, high-upside players. As of now, though, that isn’t what they’re doing, and that’s a shame... "
If Gonzales is able to produce like ZIPS projects, then it will be interesting to see how they work Yorke into the lineup. Does he move to the OF? Does he move around the IF? That makes sense if Hayes isn't healthy and Triolo is at 3B, but otherwise I worry about Yorke getting enough ABs to settle in.
I didn't see Billy Cook's projection, but it should be well known that the President of Billy Cook Fan Club (TM) just bet his house on the over for our hero
Have you trademarked William Cook or Bill Cook fan club? Just trying to find an "in" before the market takes off. Feel it's heating up. Or "cooking" if you will.
HA! That's funny. But... like... didn't he die on February 14, 1779, at Kealakekua Bay, Hawaii. Something about the Pacific Islanders taking exception to...like colonialism?
Well done, you are showing some promise here. I am willing to open up all positions within the Fan Club if there's interest. Please submit all proposals by end of business on January 31, 2025.
ZIPS is not a big believer--his projected OPS+ is 88 and his 3-year OPS+ is 89. Those values are nearly identical to Triolo's, Hayes', and Yorke's, and we'll need at least a couple out of this group to exceed the projections regardless of how good their defense is.
I'll take the over on Joey Bart too. I'll take the under on Suwinski (and this coming from the guy who had been Suwinski's biggest supporter). I'll take the under and then some more under on Davis and Palacios. I'll take the over and some more over on Chandler.
I was Wazowski's biggest supporter, not you. You were probably second. And you prove my point by going the under on Jack. I'm taking the over, because there is no WAY he repeats 2024.
.
Now. .. All that said... your wisdom does shine through that little fart-cloud of crazy on Wazowski. I'm totally with you on the over for Bart, the under on Davis and Palacios, and the Over Over on Chandler (which I think is the big payoff this season).
______________________________
“Oh well, maybe I can shine it up and use it for an ashtray.”
OK. I'll give you credit for being Jack's biggest supporter or Jack's complete lack of surprise if he does well this season. Just remember that Jack is not a beautiful or unique snowflake.
They have most of Hayes' value coming from defense as his projected offense is not that impressive. Interestingly, their projections for Hayes and Triolo are very similar and if the FO's projections agree, then it would make sense to trade Hayes and turn 3B over to Triolo or Yorke.
I'm a Hayes fan, though, and want to see him given one more opportunity. I think I read that he's doing offseason workouts designed to keep his back healthier, and I'm hopeful that this will be his breakout year.
Based on the P-G article from last September I have little to no hope for Hayes. Back issues are chronic and what he has cannot be repaired by surgery. Sorry, but I see 2025 as the last shot for Hayes and then they’ll have to accept the sunk cost unless a miracle occurs.
They are all under the scouting umbrella, but they do have specific jobs within those umbrellas. It appears that the Pirates have expanded their analytics side of the scouting department and kept the human side of scouting the same size, making the entire scouting side bigger as a whole.
I've never heard of the job title before last night, but they have added an applied biomechanist named Baxter Halligan. He has pitching coach experience in the amateur ranks, but he recently obtained his Master’s of Science degree in Kinesiology with focus in Sports Performance/Biomechanics. That led to his front office job with the Pirates. He has been around for a little bit in a learning role, but recently moved up to the new role.
"making the scouting side bigger as a whole" --- sounds good, in theory. But we all know how well committees work....reminds me of one of my favorites from despair.com:
MEETINGS: None of us is as dumb as all of us.
Runner-up:
COLLABORATION: It's not much use pooling your resources if your chief resource is stupidity.
Playing the role of skeptic on today's show will be HeyFred.
FWIW that's the exact balance I'd hope for. Reading some of the recent pieces from BA on changes in the scouting world, I can't imagine what little savings going all-in on video-analytics by cutting off the eyes on the ground actually works out to in the end, let alone returns in benefit. Seems there's room for both working together and the Pirates are trending that direction.
I hate the idea of losing scouts on the ground in favor of analytics. There's no reason both can't be used. Pirates seem to be embracing both sides of it, which is the balance you want to see. I don't think there's a replacement for a kid knowing the stands are full of scouts to see him and seeing how he performs under that pressure
Maybe the idea of biomechanics and ... whatever all those new jobs are... is an eye toward the health of pitchers long-term.
That would be a way to take advantage of a market inefficiency, I think.
We're always talking about this guy or that guy's smooth or difficult delivery. Maybe these things are taking into account the causes -inefficient biomechanics- of injury and trying to lessen them?
Interesting to read the comments of the scout who discovered Soto and convinced the Nationals to sign him. He said basically that analytics is nice and all, but not all that helpful when looking at 16-year old kids play ball. Old-fashioned scouting techniques are what allowed him to identify Soto as a potentially high-value player. If you are looking at college kids in the draft, analytics is fine, but when you get to high-school players and 16-year olds in the DR, I'm not sure how much analytics is going to help.
If Nick G is Pirates 2nd best hitter this year, then I’m going to go out on a limb and say it was another bad year for the offense. Pirates definitely need Cruz, Reynolds, and Horowitz to be better than even Nick G’s Zips 80% outcome.
I’m a fan of Nick G, but he’s not an alpha on a contender. He’s a good complimentary player on a contender.
Agree with your eval of NG as "not an alpha on a contender". I see him as a good to excellent defender at 2B, .709 OPS in 2024, not much power - a HR every 55 PA, and the K/BB rate of over 4/1 is too high for a 2B with little power. Playing half of his games at PNC, it is hard to think his number of HR's will improve. He is also position limited compared to Triolo, Williams, Yorke, Peguero, and TJ.
If we are planning for the future (Peguero (24), Yorke (23), TJ (21) we try to bundle Nick with a SP if we can get a MOTO hitter (possibly a high minors OF) for later in 2025 or in 2026. If we cannot do that, possibly a straight up with Detroit for Tork?
NG for Tork? Setting aside that’s a huge overpay on the Bucs end, Detroit just signed Gleybar Torres and have a crowded infield themselves. Peguro isn’t gonna happen.
I thought Peguero did fairly well in the time he was rushed to the majors at age 22 when Cruz was injured - .654 OPS in 198 AB, 7 HR/26 RBI, .960 Fielding % at SS in 39 games, 1.000 fielding % at 2B in 33 games.
Entering his age 24 season in 2025. When we drafted TJ I knew we would try to get him to MLB as quickly as possible. When we traded for Yorke, BC was not getting him to sit the bench. So, I would start Peguero at 2B, IKF at SS. Work Yorke into starts at 2B, and Peguero into work at SS. At the deadline IKF is traded, Peguero to SS, Yorke to 2B to finish 2025. That's the MI until TJ pushes his way into MLB.
Peguro was rushed in 23, but he was as well below average at AAA in 24. Why would that translate to MLB production in 25? I could see the point if he was Andrelton Simmons at short, but Peguro isn’t even close to that.
As for not seeing the huge overpay with Tork/NG, you’d have to go deeper than your surface level statistics here. Torks Ks went up, his walks went down and his power cratered. Maybe he bounces back, but right now he looks like a good version of what we’d want Hank Davis to be. Which isn’t something I’d trade a potential average 2B for.
Against LHP at 1B, and some DH. They are both former First Rounders who are both entering their age 26 seasons. The hint of better power from Tork could mean we have to add something more, but it's a trade that could benefit both clubs.
Fangraphs has him at 1.3 fWAR for 387 PAs last year, so 2.6 with 550 PAs seems a reasonable estimate of his improvement as he becomes settled in the majors. 2.6 WAR is sort of a major-league average player.
He didn't strike out an excessive amount last year. He tends to hit the ball pretty hard, and he makes fairly regular contact. His defense to the eye and on paper seems better than advertised. I don't think projecting him as a league-average 2Bman is a stretch. Seems correct to me.
I bet the OBP projection ends up a bit high; he clearly adjusted approach towards swinging at just about anything in order to avoid deeper counts that leave him prone to breaking balls, but it seems to be worth it. League-average hitter with a few more clearing the fence than last year. I’m in.
I don't think we realized as we watched him last year just how much his approach changed. He went from a guy who just went up there looking for fastballs early in the count and hacking away at everything to a guy who was (I assume) studying analytic reports or pitchers, trying to outthink the pitcher, pick up spin, waiting on his swing until he got a good look at the pitch and more willing to go the other way when necessary.
There is still a ceiling there that we have not seen and that may be higher than we think. Of course, few players actually reach their ceiling.
I still think he’s our best SS as the roster currently stands, his arm is average but mitigated by a quick release, his fielding looked above average, better than IKF.
Profar to the Braves- was holding out a little bit of hope but probably shouldn’t be surprised
3 years 42 Mil…. That’s only $14M a year. That seems reasonable and doable.
All things being equal, there is a ton of implied risk in that contract.
Once you pass on Conforto for 1 year and $17 million, the writing is on the wall. You will get Ramon Laureano, and you will like it.
What makes you think 2024 was anything other than an anomaly?
Im not sold on profar, i dont mind letting someone else take him. Admittedly, the braves are a pretty well run org so maybe they see something that makes them think he can repeat at least some semblance of last year
I mean, they probably see it as a breakeven if he provides a little over 4-5 WAR for the entire contract. Very doable, but also very risky considering he’s been so inconsistent his entire career.
If you are a consistent 4 to 5 war guy, wouldn't you be signing a 5 year contract for $100 million plus? I only wish the Pirates would sign these guys. I had plenty of guys I would prefer over Profar.
Profar has plenty of positives. He brings a lot of energy, which I think our offense and clubhouse needs. Last year he was not only an all-star, but also received MVP votes.
He also has plenty of negatives. Like you said he has had many more bad seasons than good. He strikes out a lot. He is a below average fielder. Most of all, his energy could have a negative impact.
Players with many negatives keeps the cost down and makes it a possibilty for the Pirates to sign. Sadly, these type of players are the only guys the Pirates can hope for. High upside, but realistically they will probably be bad.
(Sorry for rambling. I think we are on the same page.)
He suffered substantial injury transitioning from AAA to MLB that set him back several years. He has kind of quietly gotten better over the years and finally put it all together. I think that he will be a decent player, but I doubt that he can replicate last year 3 more times.
The only thing I see is that he can take a walk. He had a -1.6 fWAR in 2023, and his 2024 Statcast metrics make absolutely no sense in the context of the rest of his career. Idk, finally figuring it out at 32/33 yo, that’s a hard pass for me at 3/42. This is the same guy that signed a 1-yr contract a year ago for $1m and ended up making $2.5m with incentives. I think it’s more reasonable that he finally had one of those +80 percentile years that everyone previously thought was his ceiling, and now he’ll be chasing that for the rest of his career.
Fair question because most of his years are just average. He was the number one prospect in baseball way back in 2013 and even though that was 100 years ago, I still think the guy probably has tools. Would I bet on him? No. Would I think he is a good gamble for 3 year 42 million? Yes. The only free agents we are going to sign for that price and only 3 years are going to have uncertainty.
The only thing that seems consistent, other than him being inconsistent, with him is his BB%. Crazy that a gamble in today’s game costs you $42m.
Ro has a new home, same as his old home. Yanks claimed him today. Wonder how long till the need his spot and he is cut loose again….
Maybe that was all part of the Yankees plan when they traded him to the Pirates a few years ago.
LOL! I almost posted something like that. The evil empire tells Ro when they trade him to have a good start in Pittsburgh to make all the fans think that the deal was a good one for the Bucs then pull back the reins after the first season and make the league think you aren’t good and we will of course get you back as soon as possible. Then you can pitch like you can and we will make it worth your while 😁
More attention to the Pirates for another international signing, this time Robinson Smith from Australia. His mother swam in the Olympics for Australia. He is 17 and throws 95.
https://www.espn.com.au/espn/story/_/id/43500191/robinson-smith-pittsburgh-pirates-pitcher-hall-fame-dream
If you click on the article you will find a family photo that includes his brother sporting a dead on Paul Skenes mustache.
She won a silver and 2 bronze medals during the '92 and '96 Olympic games.
One other source had him hitting 93, this says 95 at 17. And he sure looks projectable. I’ll take the athletic background, too.
Thanks for the share
The brother definitely is a Skenes doppelgänger
Love how ZiPS is stoking the ol' pot belly stove right now. Three+ weeks until P&C report to Bradenton. I can do that time standing on my head.
Ickity-Ackity-Ooph!
To me, thinking in a way that probably does not compute for baseball whiz-o-metrics... We've got a vanilla chance. I think the Bucs punched above their weight last season, sure, but they did punch.
To me, improvements, if incremental, might be enough to get the pirates over that late season swoon. Whether or not the rest of the division has improved to move that goalpost for us... well...
Starting with the obvious, the rotation is good. If the defense is decent, we're in a good place.
Right field is fungible-city, but... surely... Mike Wazowski will recover from that awful 2024, right? I like that zips is giving him a chance. And I've always rooted for Suwinski. A guy I'd love to see make it. It is possible Cook could make that platoon work? If so, it's a marginal improvement, yes?
I see first, second and third being mid-twos in zips. That would mean a decent year from Hayes, Nick the Stick, and Horwitz. Those would be marginal improvements.
Bullpen has to stop lighting sparklers in the fireworks factory.
BRey might be coming out late for defense...
Interesting article. To me, the big x-factor is Bubba Chandler. If he does anything approaching Jared Jones's thing from last season, we have a major improvement on our hands and a very deep rotation. I could see Oviedo and Falter piggy-backing.
End of the day we have a plain cheese sandwich team. Might not be delicious, but it might just get us through. And, in the sense of "teams" and how they work, perhaps this team could be more than the sum of its parts.
And that is all from the land of Polyanna.
____________________________________
“It just goes to show ya that a one-eyed jackrabbit can beat a king.”
-Wabbit
Have to say ... if Cruz, Reynolds or someone doesn't exceed 3 WAR then this offense is as horrible as it looks. Too bad Yorke or Nick G. don't fit at ss. IKF is an offensive hole there. Too bad Hayes is always an "if only" and cannot be counted upon. I guess I'm relatively happy at catcher. SP has to show beyond top 10 with this penciled in offense and that is a possibility, but variable due to youth.
Bumbling Ben’s strategy seems to be accumulating lots of 1-2 win players. NH got like that, too, after the playoff run. Sure worked well.
Fortune may favor the bold, but Bob’s fortune certainly doesn’t.
It’s becoming clear that they went into this offseason knowing they weren’t going to increase payroll.
writing on the wall with the trade deadline shenanigans last year, which sucks, but i'm still honestly surprised they'd stoop this low.
At least give us some mealy-mouthed explanation about TV deals or loss of revenue or something. They don't even care enough to explain themselves.
It's very low after years of a $60 million MLB payroll. Nutting really is a slumlord owner. There is nothing decent to say about the guy.
Am I wrong to read exactly that into Szym's take here?
"Considering this, if the Pirates aren’t going to spend more — which they surely will not — they should instead roll the dice a little bit more to get some low-cost, high-upside players. As of now, though, that isn’t what they’re doing, and that’s a shame... "
Like I get it, Cherington doesn't really have the option of signing 3-4 WAR hitters, but at some point you have to take a shot on a boom/bust slot or two in the lineup. Cruz is obviously one, and I genuinely like the Horwitz acquisition, but i can't help but feel like there was room for one more high beta dude on the field and he chose to shoot for 82-win baseball.
It’s almost as if he’s prioritizing keeping his job over winning a title.
Shocked face emoji
I know the group here is generally against it but I feel like Robert Jr. is the only somewhat conceivable big swing there is left. Sox would have to eat money but in the vein of trying for an actual, big improvement, Id be all in as long as Chandler is untouchable. Of course, there's a fair chance it blows up but if we wanna win with Paul around we have to take some real swings
I tend to agree, but prefer trading Jones to Orioles for someone like Mayo.
I don't know dude he's pretty stacked for a 70 yo but they'd flag him on PEDs for sure.
Oh, not THAT Robert Jr, sorry!
Nope, not wrong.
There’s arguably still time to do that in RF via the trade route? Probably the only guy left in FA who potentially offers such upside for the OF is Profar, which I doubt is happening. Although I’m sure they’d love having a guy with his athleticism and versatility.
It's SS for me.
The high beta trade dudes are gonna look a lot like Michael A Taylor and BDLC. Suwinski/Yorke RF platoon has enough floor/upside combo for me, at least in 2025, not to risk an implosion.
So…Kim and hope his shoulder comes around so he can play short? Iglesias seems pretty mi h the same as IKF. Or are you thinking trade market?
oh damn i forget Kim was still out there!
I *was* thinking trade, something like what Mel has pitched with Ronny Mauricio.
Kim is the way. push IKF to a UT role where he belongs. have to take on the risk of the shoulder / not playing a full '25 to balance out the cost, but the upside is big
Easily better to sort through Suwinski, Yorke, Cook, etc., than the usual MAT, BDLC route.
(Autocorrect tried to change Yorke to Yorktown. Effing AI.)
Without a better option in RF and SS and without a somewhat healthy Hayes, this isn't even shooting for 82. It's shooting for a winning season only if every conceivable thing goes right which is more optimistic than candy canes and lollipops.
For trading to get an outfielder, I would call the Dodgers and Tigers to see if we match up with them. Andy Pages or Justyn-Henry- Mallory. JMO
you are the yin to my yang
well you're wrong on that, but I understand it's your general vibe.
I always hope I'm wrong when I'm pessimistic about the Bucs! As a kid, I was an optimist when they were winning and my mother was an optimist when they were losing. I don't know if that messed me up completely or if that makes me something of a realist.
haha, hear you there brother!
broken record, but I could at least squint to see the strategery if he also went all-in on the bullpen.
Big boy rotation backed by an elite-ish pen can absolutely get you to 88ish wins with a lineup of 1-2 WAR "avoid the awful" position players. But feels to me like they're a backend guy or two short of that unless Bednar turns into a phoenix from the ashes.
Sign Estevez, and this team starts to look like it might have a chance if things go well and they stay reasonably healthy. Won't happen though. Stingy owner who will never, ever throw the fans a bone or even scraps from the table, and a GM who likes to nickle and dime away his budget on the IKFs of the league.
2001-2003 Doug Mientkiewicz suits me fine for Horwitz.
'91-'92 Orlando Merced LETS GO.
Always had a soft spot for these types. Olerud, Grace, Morneau...
Got to add Will Clark
Johnny O! That guy could freaking hit. He put up an 8 win season in 98 and I’ll bet almost no one remembers. When you dig into it, he had a really good career. Those 1B with great hit, but not monster power numbers always get overlooked.
Speaking of those years I saw on the twitters a Brian Giles vs Jaun Soto comp AND THEY'RE THE SAME HITTER.
Wild times, bro, wild times.
I remember Merced coming to my elementary school. Him and the Pirate parrot. Also remember Eric Green playing with other Steelers vs the high school team in hoops.
The Mayor. Didn't he have a steel plate in his face?
Cant forget the Big Cat or the Crime Dog.
epic references!
This Zips article is one of the better statements on the state of the Pirates that I have read. I agree completely with these gems...
"Moving Oneil Cruz to center field isn’t the worst idea around, but you’d like to see the organization’s grand plan involve something more ambitious than Isiah Kiner-Falefa playing shortstop every day."
"A reclamation project or a gamble or two, rather than filling out the roster with known quantities, would have been a lot more interesting at some of these positions."
"Considering this, if the Pirates aren’t going to spend more — which they surely will not — they should instead roll the dice a little bit more to get some low-cost, high-upside players. As of now, though, that isn’t what they’re doing, and that’s a shame... "
I was thinking about posting exactly this excerpt. Gonna remember it when DJ Stewart is OPSing .580 as our starting RF.
My poor reading skills kicked in and I read .850 OPS and I thought “jeez, Wilbur has high expectations if that’s not good enough!”
.850?? Is that a thing?
"what is the combined OPS all of Cherington free agents?"
That is correct for $200.
The only hitter projection that drew even mild disappointment from me was Nicky Yorke. I’ll take the heavy over on that one.
agree
If Gonzales is able to produce like ZIPS projects, then it will be interesting to see how they work Yorke into the lineup. Does he move to the OF? Does he move around the IF? That makes sense if Hayes isn't healthy and Triolo is at 3B, but otherwise I worry about Yorke getting enough ABs to settle in.
Fair question; I'm assuming he's Jack's platoon mate in RF and fills in IF slots as needed.
Not the easiest assignment, but hitters just hit.
I didn't see Billy Cook's projection, but it should be well known that the President of Billy Cook Fan Club (TM) just bet his house on the over for our hero
Have you trademarked William Cook or Bill Cook fan club? Just trying to find an "in" before the market takes off. Feel it's heating up. Or "cooking" if you will.
HA! That's funny. But... like... didn't he die on February 14, 1779, at Kealakekua Bay, Hawaii. Something about the Pacific Islanders taking exception to...like colonialism?
Maybe his grandpap.
Well done, you are showing some promise here. I am willing to open up all positions within the Fan Club if there's interest. Please submit all proposals by end of business on January 31, 2025.
Captain Cook.
ZIPS is not a big believer--his projected OPS+ is 88 and his 3-year OPS+ is 89. Those values are nearly identical to Triolo's, Hayes', and Yorke's, and we'll need at least a couple out of this group to exceed the projections regardless of how good their defense is.
I'll take the over on Joey Bart too. I'll take the under on Suwinski (and this coming from the guy who had been Suwinski's biggest supporter). I'll take the under and then some more under on Davis and Palacios. I'll take the over and some more over on Chandler.
Davis, Jack, and Chandler are potential difference makers to bridge gap between meh to wild card team.
Add in great years from Bednar, Carmen M, and Nicholas in the bullpen and maybe we’re cooking with gas.
Lots of if’s, and, and but’s. As usual with this franchise.
Now just a rock pickin' minute.
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I was Wazowski's biggest supporter, not you. You were probably second. And you prove my point by going the under on Jack. I'm taking the over, because there is no WAY he repeats 2024.
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Now. .. All that said... your wisdom does shine through that little fart-cloud of crazy on Wazowski. I'm totally with you on the over for Bart, the under on Davis and Palacios, and the Over Over on Chandler (which I think is the big payoff this season).
______________________________
“Oh well, maybe I can shine it up and use it for an ashtray.”
-Wabbit
OK. I'll give you credit for being Jack's biggest supporter or Jack's complete lack of surprise if he does well this season. Just remember that Jack is not a beautiful or unique snowflake.
strong agree on that Davis/Palacios position and no argument on any of your others.
Low on Skenes, Yorke, Chandler, high on Hayes/RF quagmire. Overall, it looks rosier than I thought. But still not great.
They have most of Hayes' value coming from defense as his projected offense is not that impressive. Interestingly, their projections for Hayes and Triolo are very similar and if the FO's projections agree, then it would make sense to trade Hayes and turn 3B over to Triolo or Yorke.
I'm a Hayes fan, though, and want to see him given one more opportunity. I think I read that he's doing offseason workouts designed to keep his back healthier, and I'm hopeful that this will be his breakout year.
If 5 WAR Hayes actually becomes a thing…
Who am I trying to kid? I have very low expectations. Anything more than 0 WAR will be a pleasant surprise.
Double-Plus-Good on Hayes.
I hope so too. But back trouble doesn’t usually get better with age.
Based on the P-G article from last September I have little to no hope for Hayes. Back issues are chronic and what he has cannot be repaired by surgery. Sorry, but I see 2025 as the last shot for Hayes and then they’ll have to accept the sunk cost unless a miracle occurs.
I hope I’m wrong.
Are these new scouting titles indicative of video/analytic-based work? Like why not just call them scouts.
They are all under the scouting umbrella, but they do have specific jobs within those umbrellas. It appears that the Pirates have expanded their analytics side of the scouting department and kept the human side of scouting the same size, making the entire scouting side bigger as a whole.
I've never heard of the job title before last night, but they have added an applied biomechanist named Baxter Halligan. He has pitching coach experience in the amateur ranks, but he recently obtained his Master’s of Science degree in Kinesiology with focus in Sports Performance/Biomechanics. That led to his front office job with the Pirates. He has been around for a little bit in a learning role, but recently moved up to the new role.
Baxter Halligan. What a name!
I always wanted to be a biyomechanist....
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Or a P-sychologist...
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Or a P-sycho-analist....
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My little brother always wanted to be a Road Runner. "Bee-Beep! Whiz-Bang!"
Sometimes I wish the coyote would catch the roadrunner.
"making the scouting side bigger as a whole" --- sounds good, in theory. But we all know how well committees work....reminds me of one of my favorites from despair.com:
MEETINGS: None of us is as dumb as all of us.
Runner-up:
COLLABORATION: It's not much use pooling your resources if your chief resource is stupidity.
Playing the role of skeptic on today's show will be HeyFred.
Super interesting, thanks John.
FWIW that's the exact balance I'd hope for. Reading some of the recent pieces from BA on changes in the scouting world, I can't imagine what little savings going all-in on video-analytics by cutting off the eyes on the ground actually works out to in the end, let alone returns in benefit. Seems there's room for both working together and the Pirates are trending that direction.
I hate the idea of losing scouts on the ground in favor of analytics. There's no reason both can't be used. Pirates seem to be embracing both sides of it, which is the balance you want to see. I don't think there's a replacement for a kid knowing the stands are full of scouts to see him and seeing how he performs under that pressure
Maybe the idea of biomechanics and ... whatever all those new jobs are... is an eye toward the health of pitchers long-term.
That would be a way to take advantage of a market inefficiency, I think.
We're always talking about this guy or that guy's smooth or difficult delivery. Maybe these things are taking into account the causes -inefficient biomechanics- of injury and trying to lessen them?
well said.
Managing the internal tensions between both types would be difficult, who ultimately gets their way, but that's what good leaders do.
Interesting to read the comments of the scout who discovered Soto and convinced the Nationals to sign him. He said basically that analytics is nice and all, but not all that helpful when looking at 16-year old kids play ball. Old-fashioned scouting techniques are what allowed him to identify Soto as a potentially high-value player. If you are looking at college kids in the draft, analytics is fine, but when you get to high-school players and 16-year olds in the DR, I'm not sure how much analytics is going to help.
If Nick G is Pirates 2nd best hitter this year, then I’m going to go out on a limb and say it was another bad year for the offense. Pirates definitely need Cruz, Reynolds, and Horowitz to be better than even Nick G’s Zips 80% outcome.
I’m a fan of Nick G, but he’s not an alpha on a contender. He’s a good complimentary player on a contender.
Agree with your eval of NG as "not an alpha on a contender". I see him as a good to excellent defender at 2B, .709 OPS in 2024, not much power - a HR every 55 PA, and the K/BB rate of over 4/1 is too high for a 2B with little power. Playing half of his games at PNC, it is hard to think his number of HR's will improve. He is also position limited compared to Triolo, Williams, Yorke, Peguero, and TJ.
If we are planning for the future (Peguero (24), Yorke (23), TJ (21) we try to bundle Nick with a SP if we can get a MOTO hitter (possibly a high minors OF) for later in 2025 or in 2026. If we cannot do that, possibly a straight up with Detroit for Tork?
NG for Tork? Setting aside that’s a huge overpay on the Bucs end, Detroit just signed Gleybar Torres and have a crowded infield themselves. Peguro isn’t gonna happen.
Do not see the huge overpay.
I thought Peguero did fairly well in the time he was rushed to the majors at age 22 when Cruz was injured - .654 OPS in 198 AB, 7 HR/26 RBI, .960 Fielding % at SS in 39 games, 1.000 fielding % at 2B in 33 games.
Entering his age 24 season in 2025. When we drafted TJ I knew we would try to get him to MLB as quickly as possible. When we traded for Yorke, BC was not getting him to sit the bench. So, I would start Peguero at 2B, IKF at SS. Work Yorke into starts at 2B, and Peguero into work at SS. At the deadline IKF is traded, Peguero to SS, Yorke to 2B to finish 2025. That's the MI until TJ pushes his way into MLB.
Peguro was rushed in 23, but he was as well below average at AAA in 24. Why would that translate to MLB production in 25? I could see the point if he was Andrelton Simmons at short, but Peguro isn’t even close to that.
As for not seeing the huge overpay with Tork/NG, you’d have to go deeper than your surface level statistics here. Torks Ks went up, his walks went down and his power cratered. Maybe he bounces back, but right now he looks like a good version of what we’d want Hank Davis to be. Which isn’t something I’d trade a potential average 2B for.
good post
Torkelson? To play where?
Against LHP at 1B, and some DH. They are both former First Rounders who are both entering their age 26 seasons. The hint of better power from Tork could mean we have to add something more, but it's a trade that could benefit both clubs.
I fail to see any benefit for the Pirates.
Fangraphs has him at 1.3 fWAR for 387 PAs last year, so 2.6 with 550 PAs seems a reasonable estimate of his improvement as he becomes settled in the majors. 2.6 WAR is sort of a major-league average player.
He didn't strike out an excessive amount last year. He tends to hit the ball pretty hard, and he makes fairly regular contact. His defense to the eye and on paper seems better than advertised. I don't think projecting him as a league-average 2Bman is a stretch. Seems correct to me.
2.6 league average. What’s league average for 2B? Spoiler alert, it ain’t that high.
I hope Zips is right about Nick G, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
I bet the OBP projection ends up a bit high; he clearly adjusted approach towards swinging at just about anything in order to avoid deeper counts that leave him prone to breaking balls, but it seems to be worth it. League-average hitter with a few more clearing the fence than last year. I’m in.
I don't think we realized as we watched him last year just how much his approach changed. He went from a guy who just went up there looking for fastballs early in the count and hacking away at everything to a guy who was (I assume) studying analytic reports or pitchers, trying to outthink the pitcher, pick up spin, waiting on his swing until he got a good look at the pitch and more willing to go the other way when necessary.
There is still a ceiling there that we have not seen and that may be higher than we think. Of course, few players actually reach their ceiling.
I still think he’s our best SS as the roster currently stands, his arm is average but mitigated by a quick release, his fielding looked above average, better than IKF.
Agreed, very different approach from his first go through the league to my eye at least.