71 Comments

I don’t want to jinx any players from signing but my new top 30(w/out seeing Day 3 yet too) would be:

1.KonnorGriffin

2.TermarrJohnson

3.BubbaChandler

4.BraxtonAshcraft

5.ThomasHarrington

6.MikeBurrows

7.HunterBarco

8.AnthonySolometo

9.WyattSanford

10.YordanyDeLosSantos

11.Tsung-CheCheng

12.PatrickReilly

13.MattAger

14.JackBrannigan

15.EddieRynders

16.LeviSterling

17.JoshHartle

18.MichaelKennedy

19.GarretForrester

20.CharlesMcAdoo

21.KhristianCurtis

22.ZanderMueth

23.LonnieWhiteJr

24.BralynBrazoban

25.Jun-SeokShim

26.KeinerDelgado

27.OmarAlfonzo

28.JaseBowen

29.WillTaylor

30.JhonnySeverino

Expand full comment

With the cost of signing the first 3 high school picks it would be reasonable to say the remaining picks will all be college players. Hopefully they will address the lack of hitters in the upper levels but the high school picks were not surprising to me as the new scouting director came from Boston who in his time there made mostly high upside high school players in first several picks. A Red Sox fan I know always went ballistic when they drafted high school SS nearly every year.

Expand full comment
Jul 15·edited Jul 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

I wonder if the pirates double down with Aiden Harris or Myles Bailey as high school pick or Tague Davis?

Expand full comment

They can draft additional prep players if they wish. Griffin may sign slightly under slot. Not sure that the other 2 guys will get that much over slot. The Brewers do this. Seniors in Rounds 9/10 and under slot in Round 8 would give them money to draft more.

And the Pirates will not go over the cap into the penalty range.

Expand full comment

The draft is loaded with quality seniors, even some 5th year seniors. I like Jackson Appel, Corey Collins a couple guys from NC State. Drawing a blank but there's more.

Expand full comment

I’m a fan of Ben Miller and Logan Bravo from Duke. I like Joichiro “JO” Oyama, Mercer transfer and playerd for UC Irvine last year.

I really like Cooper Weiss. He’s a no doubt SS as a pro and plus power/speed.

Ryley Preece, Morehead St, is another power/speed guy. Had a 20/20 season in college. Switch-hitter too that play CF.

I like TJ McCants from Bama. LH power bat.

I like Gavin Casas from South Carolina(Tristan’s brother).

Sam Kulasingam, from Air Force, is a switch-hitting 1B that I like.

Tons of pitchers too!! Lol.

Expand full comment

Yep, a lot of guys sliding through the cracks with the draft only being 20 rounds and the 2020 shutdown.

Expand full comment

Have any other high performing seniors in previous drafts turned into actual prospects?

Expand full comment

Yes, just in 2022 for example all these players were Senior Signs:

Zebby Matthews

Wade Meckler

Ben Joyce

Trace Bright

Brody McCullough

Chase Meidroth

Zach Dezenzo

Tyler Stuart

Paul Gervase

Jack Perkins

Jake Pfennigs

All have MLB futures, all are ranked on their teams top prospects list(every site).

Meckler has already played some MLB games for SF. Zebby Matthews is a top 100 prospect on most lists.

Ohh and btw, Jake Bloss was a Senior Sign in last years draft and has already started games for the Astros. You just gotta pick the right ones!!

Expand full comment
Jul 15·edited Jul 15

This is a different year, the shutdown in 2020 had a huge impact with only 5 rounds. Very good college players took the extra year, juniors that would've been drafted as well as prep players. 2021 and 2022 had freshman being redshirted or just not playing a lot. It was why last year was so deep and why some seniors slid through the cracks this year.

Expand full comment

Gotcha thanks! I wasn’t sure if some of these guys just put up big numbers against kids 2-3 years younger than them or if any are legit prospects.

Expand full comment
Jul 15·edited Jul 15

Check out Jackson Appel on b/r or fangraphs. I think he's my favorite catcher in the draft. Excellent defense, very athletic switch hitter with an Ivy league degree. He didn't play hardly any in 2020 and 2021 but has been consistent since. Looked great at Texas A&M this year. Still 22 at draft time.

Expand full comment
author

If they dip back into the prep pool and pull Myles Bailey, I'll be so stoked lol

Expand full comment

He would be my pick if Tears and Sirota are not available with the 3rd round pick.

Expand full comment
author

Sirota and Tears would be awesome. Maybe a Dakota or Messina. I just have a hard time seeing them getting a guy that's likely a ~$2M bonus. Maybe a Stovall? I kind of hope they take a run at Will Taylor, who might wanna go back though to up his stock after an injury riddled season.

Expand full comment
Jul 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

If they pick Bailey, take Appel in the 4th and save some slot space lol. I like Appel's athleticism more than Messina but he'd be good.

Nick Mclain is a player I like starting in the 4th round if he lasts that long. I think he's a similar comp to Taylor as far as upside.

Expand full comment

Melkel, I always like your draft ideas a bunch but I've also noticed Cherington pretty much does the opposite of what you suggest. Maybe the team should hire you and fire a few folks.

Expand full comment
Jul 15·edited Jul 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

I noticed that as well lol.

I feel a little better because 2 of the guys I liked at 37 got drafted before we had a chance for them (Burke and Dix). But what does the Brewers and Dbacks know about the draft lol.

He did take Skenes last year though!

Expand full comment
Jul 15Liked by Anthony Murphy

The Carrot Leader Board At the Break...

*

The Carrot Tally So Far:*

Keller 28

B.Rey 28

Tellez 21

BabySkenes 20

Jones 18 injured

O’Cruz 18

L’Ortiz 15

Nick the Stick 14

Falter 13

Cutch 11

Joe 8

ChapMan 8

HodorMan 8

M. Gonzales 8

Oliveras 7

Suwinski 7

Bednar 7

M. Perez 6

Flemming 5

Bart 5

Granny 4

Hayes 4

Triolo 3

Nicolas 3

R.Ryan 2

Davis 2

Williams 2

Bae 2

Palacios 2

Contreras 1 traded

J. Hernandez 1 traded

M A Taylor 1

Delay 1

QP 1

Mlod 1

*

*updated 7/14/24

Expand full comment

Suwinski ahead of Bart? I demand a recount!

Expand full comment

Sunday, July 14

48 down. 33 to go.

*

Pirates win 9-4, sweeping the pale hose in Chi-Town and climbing to .500 at the break. They are in third place, 6.5 games behind the first place Brewers ,1.5 games out of the Wild Card discussion and 2 steps above the cellar.

*

CARROTS ON THE HOUSE!!!!

*

@> Nick the Stick for his game winning rbi triple. He scored once and knocked in the decisive runs in the sevent.

*

@>@> Joey Bart for his three run Bart-Dart in the fourth getting the Pirates the lead.

*

@>@>@> B. Rey. 2 for 3 with a walk, 3 scored and one driven in.

________________________

“Hey. Dis don’t look like the Coachella Valley to me. I must have taken a left turn at Albuquerque.”

-Wabbit

Expand full comment

have yinz heard any player comps for Griffin?

Expand full comment

I've heard Jo Adell, Bubba Starling and Matt Kemp.

Expand full comment

I laughed at your own response there....I did hear a Jo Adell comp. That can be great and not so great at the same time. Adell was looking to be great, and seemed to be impacted more than most from pandemic pushing him up a level and his hit tool just hasn't consistently come in.

Trade value of 2019/2020 Jo Adell would have been magical.....

Expand full comment
Jul 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

sources saying the scouting report on him says he has a lion's body and a bird's head

Expand full comment
Jul 15·edited Jul 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Axiel Plaz is featured again in one of BA's writeups of guys with impressive statcast data. At 18 he's slugging .543 in a league that averages .351. He'd be leading the league by 52 points if he qualified.

Expand full comment
Jul 15·edited Jul 15

anything to think about between Bazzana and Solomon McGuire?

Expand full comment

No

Expand full comment
Jul 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

who was the Aussie Pirates had maybe 7 years or so ago? Middle infielder, a little pop in his bat...had a small cult following. Not like the Jose Osuna cult, but he definitely had some dedicated followers.

Expand full comment
author

Robbie GlenDinger!!!!!!!!

Expand full comment
Jul 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Yes, him!

Expand full comment
author

Led me to check up what he's up to. Mashing in the Mexican League

Expand full comment
Jul 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

I'm picturing a Kenny Powers situation and refuse to believe otherwise.

Expand full comment

I actually like all 3 picks, just disappointed we passed on some high ceiling near ready players for the development path.

Hope they put Griffin in CF or the infield in Bradenton is going to be overloaded.

Expand full comment

I wonder if Sanford and/or Sterling will be a tough sign(s), especially given the NIL deals they might get from A&M and Texas, respectively. Would our FO know their signing demands prior to the picks at this stage of the draft? We've lost high upside HS kids drafted in this range in the past (e.g., Lodolo, Turner).

Expand full comment

They should know what it'll take to sign them.

Expand full comment

Feels like they did get their pocked picked past year by leaving money on the table, so im just hoping that doesnt happen again

Expand full comment

Any names to look out for today? BC will probably go on a run of pitching but I hope he snags a few bats with power

Expand full comment
Jul 15·edited Jul 15

Tears is a bat I like, has some swing and miss but got considerably better as the season went along. He's an excellent corner outfielder with some pop. Might be able to handle CF. Didn't play much his first 2 years, was a 2 sport star in high-school, redshirt as a freshman, only played sparingly his redshirt freshman year, was one of Tennessee's biggest bats during the CWS.

Sirota, McClain, Spikerman and Overn would be other college outfielders that could play CF as well, Nick McClain is iffy but is the best hitter out of the bunch and would be a Reynolds light in left.

Expand full comment

Always enjoy your input man. I didn't even realize Sirota was still there, that'd be a nice get at 83 if he's still there. I'm all aboard the Tears train, intriguing enough for me

Expand full comment

Oakland drafted the two college bats I want it. So he is going to Oakland, or is it Sacramento, Vegas? The A’s!

Expand full comment

I don't think either will be there sadly, hopefully they are.

Expand full comment

pls give us 1 of these college OFers

Expand full comment

I want 2 hopefully lol

Expand full comment

I didn't see a mock with the Reds picking Burns and my first thought was whether that choice was partially influenced by us having Skenes along with other strong starters--perhaps literally trying to keep up with the Joneses :).

Expand full comment
author

Is it time for day 2 yet? Ughhhhhh

Expand full comment

Lost in the excitement of the draft is this stunning development: the Pirates are at .500. Also, miraculously, Bradenton, who are very short on pitchers at present, used both Luigi Hernandez and Hunter Furtado in the game yesterday, and they combined for 7 innings with only two walks. Hernandez did hit two batters, so it's only a minor miracle.

Expand full comment

I hope they throw him in CF (Griffin) and let him concentrate hard on the bat.

Expand full comment
author

I was thinking he’d start at SS, but if him and Sanford are moving together, they could just throw him in CF

Expand full comment

Probably he and Sanford will just move around the IF. The Pirates love to do that. They’re doing it now with Yordany DLS and Severino, even though Yordany has the potential to stay at SS and Severino doesn’t.

Expand full comment
author

We were talking about this last night a bit on the stream, but it's going to be interesting with the route they went, in determining playing time. You'd almost have to throw Griffin in CF, BUT, you're not going to do that with your just drafted first round pick. So, might get a regular YDLS at 3B, Griffin SS, and Sanford 2B, with a rotation including DH with Severino spotting in at 3B at times. Probably 1B too. Unless they get really confident in someone to push them quickly to Greensboro.

Expand full comment

Griffin and Sanford will probably start next year in the FCL. The system is getting more and more like the Brian Graham years, with prospects getting mired at the same level year after year.

Expand full comment

When does the GCL season end?

Expand full comment

July 25

Expand full comment
author

Idk, cause Termarr really only got FCL time cause it existed post draft the year he was drafted. Otherwise instructs and next spring will be the get their feet wet period. Sanford very well could start in FCL, but I think Griffin goes immediately to Bradenton (barring any setbacks).

Expand full comment
Jul 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Griffin is the kind of pick a rational, well-run organization would make as best talent available. Obviously the question is whether whether this organization can develop the kid. I'm OK with Sterling, but why Sanford? Haven't we seen enough of decent D/no O middle INFs already?

Expand full comment

Cherington was already out in the media saying they're always going to give up the middle guys an inflated grade

Expand full comment

Another aspect of the pick that I like is that it embraces the challenge of doing something they haven't done well. Either Griffin becomes an example that they can help a hitter develop his hit tool or it draws more attention to the need for changes. Either way, the pick should help the team long-term.

Expand full comment

Some analysts love the pick (and I had been hoping for Griffin or Rainer, partly because of what it says about their draft philosophy of upside over need)...from Jesse Rogers at ESPN noting it as his favorite pick:

Rogers: I love the Pirates taking a shot with high schooler Konner Griffin at No. 9. There were six or seven guys you could not pass up for Griffin, but with all those gone by the time Pittsburgh picked, I think he's worth the risk: One scouting director compared him to Mike Trout if he works out.

Expand full comment

If the strength of your development team is pitching, you better get some guys to catch it.

Expand full comment

Jackson Appel, Ryan Campos and Grant Knipp should be available round 4 or later. Appel is my favorite of the 3 defensively, Campos is the best pure hitter and Knipp has very good power.

Knipp might go as a pitcher as well.

Expand full comment

The rest of that statement should be " . . . . or, hit well enough to offset a just average defense. The Pirates have a ways to go with hitting and defense!

Expand full comment

How much defense do you need with the pitching staff they're building? 🙂

Expand full comment

Scott coming in with the second part of the equation!

Expand full comment

Except see my comment above. The Pirates don’t develop fielders any better than hitters. Everyone has to be a UT guy.

Expand full comment
Jul 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Seems to be some thought that Sanford has significant upside with the bat based on his ability to get stronger. Looks like a solid first three picks.

Expand full comment

Eric at Fangraphs says he's a defense only utility player if they can't improve the hit and power tools.

Expand full comment

yes correct that is the upside part.

Expand full comment

Yeah, I’d say something along those lines…. They liked the overall package and if the hit part comes around they’ll have a steal. He was rated 30-something overall on the MLB.com board; it’s not like someone pounded the table so they pulled a guy eighty spots above where the industry had him pegged.

And the hit tool in general is the biggest scouting wildcard, imo — even for college guys, but especially for HS draftees. Much easier to gauge and assess fielding ability, and somewhat easier to project current measurables (velocity, sprint speed), than to tell how well a guy will be able to hit pro pitching. Plenty of “hit tool” guys never actually hit, and others that didn’t get that label blossom at some point.

Expand full comment