The pirates have a new assistant GM. Amherst ties got her an intern under Huntington years ago. Congrats Sarah now use your analytical skills to give us an edge.
I've felt like our current FO was either slightly behind the curve or grasping at straws for the next big thing. In fact, I haven't felt like we've had a FO ahead of the curve, which is where we need to be, since the 2012-2015 FO. We lost some talent from that era and haven't seemed able to replace it; I'm thinking this is a big step in that direction.
Really happy that Cherington, evidently, saw the need to upgrade the FO.
It was more about being ahead of the curve in shifts, pitch framing, pitch usage, ... iirc, things that led us to finding undervalued pitchers and catchers.
Right, it's commonplace now because of the success of people like Huntington. Huntington did what he needed to do to get a competitive advantage.
It may not seem fair to say that Cherington and staff need to be better than Huntington was because other teams are smarter, but the reality is that we'll only contend if we're ahead of the curve and there is no evidence that that's been the case over the last four years (or eight years for that matter).
I think we agree that Cherington wasn't the best hire we could have made (shocking, given that our president is a hockey guy), but I'm encouraged that hiring someone like Gelles recognizes the need to get better.
Looks like the Bucs are going to start losing games earlier in the evenings this upcoming year. If you tune it at your regular time they may be on their 3rd pitcher.
With reports coming out the Brewers are looking to extend Jackson Chourio in order to allow him to start the season on roster without the worry of losing a year of control, how does everyone feel about Pirates doing the same with Paul Skenes?
I think if the Pirates were interested in doing this with Skenes, they would have tried harder to lock up Keller. I was actually hoping the Pirates would have tried to lock up Oneil Cruz long term last year while he was hurt. If he becomes the star some people think, I don't see any chance of a hometown discount anymore.
Dreker had some insight into the Cruz extension at some point in the last year or so. Appears there are reasons that Bucs should be hesitant. Maybe he can elaborate if he stumbles upon this post.
First, he’s not from Louisiana. He spent two years at Air Force Academy and one at LSU.
Second, this isn’t about Skenes, it’s about Nutting and Cherington taking on more risk than they ever have to potentially get a bigger reward than they ever have.
It's a little about Skenes. If he bets on himself with the $9.2M already in his pocket(Chourio signed for $1.8M), he may think the 'normal' arbitration salaries in his last 2 or 3 years will far exceed what he would get in a guarantee right now spread out over several years. I don't see him at this point wanting to give up any free agent years which seems to be part of the Chourio deal and to me is a driving factor in trying to get these types of deals done. I'm with NMR in not being overly worried / focused on draft compensation as a driving factor in getting cost certainly. We already have control certainty.
I would love to go to a pot luck party with the Pirates if they brought items from their homelands. I'd trust Skenes has had some crawdad juice up on that mustache. From Louisiana or not. Dude from Australia could bring vegemite. I'd set it up if I was GM.
As I see pitchers coming off the board I am really rooting for the Reds to overpay with prospects for a one year addition (can TB recreate the Archer fleecing with Glasnow - ironic as that seems). While i was hoping for 2024 in my brain I have pushed real contention to 2025 with hopes of a tease of a playoff chance this year. The SP situation is driving that and the reality of how much they will spend this year vs next year. Let the Reds burn some prospect capital this year.
This would put them on the exact same schedule as Huntington's build, which isn't all that impressive given that Cherington inherited a much better system from Huntington than Huntington inherited from Littlefield. Plus, there's not the 20-years-of-losing stigma to deal with and it's easier to make the postseason now. But if that's the best Cherington can do, I'll settle for it as long as the timeline for making the postseason doesn't get extended to '26 or later.
I really thought 25 would be the year for contending. 2024 was to set the final piece and push for the playoffs. I still think we can have a good team this year but until I see BC make substantial moves this off-season, I'm losing hope at contending next year.
I'd be happy with a Keller extension, a mid tier rotation piece and at least someone that might add some competition to the 1st base job. I know there's still time but with the Cards and Reds adding, the Cubs trying to go big and the Brewers still making moves after losing their manager and top front office personnel it makes me worry Ben is either hamstrung by Nutting or is playing go fish instead of poker.
Incredibly daunting path to leapfrogging *six* teams in order to make the playoffs when you sit down and look at it. The Marlins and Reds are the only two that I have any confidence in being positioned better for mid-term success.
Totally fair comment but do I think they are closer now than 2021 - yes.. closer than 2022 - yes. I assume they will need to develop 80% of 'key' players or more. Oneill lost a year, Hayes took a big jump, need to sign Keller, hope at catcher (Endy and Hank) with some MLB under their belt. Better way for me to word it 'maybe'... if they are going to start trading the Termarrs etc.. and I truly believe they will need to swing trades with that level of prospect or MLB players at some point to fill the 'final' pieces.. I don't feel as justified to do that now as I hope too in a year. Just my opinion.. not giving up on this year at all
They’re closer to contending in the sense that they couldn’t be any farther away from contention in 21 and 22. It’s progress but how much? They gave a slew of plate appearances (over 1,500 in fact) to rookies and they were highly disappointing, putting up less than one WAR between them. Three of the young arms they’re counting on went backwards significantly both in stuff and results.
The team undoubtedly had bad injury luck with Oneil and the TJ surgeries, but the tough fact to face about 23’s improvement is that it was largely tied to existing players: Keller, Hayes, Reynolds, Bednar. They desperately need the young guys to show something, but they have to plow some resources into the FA or trade market to supplement.
If you want to rub your hands with glee at the Reds potentially “overpaying” in prospects/young regulars for Dylan Cease, be my guest. But they’re in that position because their young players have taken giant steps forward that our players haven’t.
Spot on! Player development and coaching is sub-standard. Really hard to believe a championship quality team is forthcoming if they neither develop talent properly or spend to acquire it.
The Reds overpaying (Genesis of this thread) was more of an aside comment that I thought of when I saw Glasnow mentioned as a target. Trust me... not high on my list of things that will make me happy/sad or keep me up at night but I thought it could be truly ironic.
To the real issues / comment - yes they desperately need the young guys to show something - fully agree.
Time to start looking at the Rule 5 next week, and CJ Van Eyk would be a nice grab for the Pirates. I'd say he is probably going to be the best available, so the Pirates need to make something happen if they are interested. Still like the very quiet signing of an excellent RH CF in Celestino.
So two years ago the team signed zero free agents, last year spent around $30 million if the trade for Choi is counted, I think is gonna be a wait and see what’s left after all the big boys spend their money, I’ll say late December before we see any, if any additions.
BTW, they could do the same by giving those innings to Priester, Contreras, Ortiz, Jackson, Falter, Kranick without blowing $12 millions, same shitty results and save money.
There are plenty of reports from this morning out of Japan and Korea saying Thomas Hatch has signed to play with the Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan, with one article saying they paid a decent price to get his release from the Pirates
this is going to make yinz earz hurt when you read it but i would like to take the opportunity to show the scoreboard since the Pirates/Mets trade a few years ago:
I'm not real worried about whether Lucchesi has some success as a 30 year old one year away from free agency vs. a 23 year possible catcher of the future in his first year in the bigs. No reason to think Lucchesi won't have some success.
Montas has basically missed 2 seasons. Wood only started half the time and threw less than 100 innings. Ryu is 36 and coming off TJ. Maybe Erick Fedde coming back from Korea? If they can’t afford a couple of these kinds of guys, it’s just sad lol.
Well, Severino was fairly awful last year and got $13 MM. Steamer has him projected at 1.5 WAR, so that tells me teams are paying for the WAR projection. Montas for example, is projected at 1.8 WAR. I could see him getting at least close to as much as Severino.
Mackey says that Cherington keeps emphasizing trades which makes me think that they're not willing to pay what it takes to sign decent FAs because there is plenty of SP talent available. The questions then become
1. Are we willing to part with the type of prospects that will bring back impact talent?
Aren't we forgetting that even if the Pirates trade for a decent player and give up prospects to do so they still have to pay him? Cease for example will probably get $8-9 million in arbitration this year and more the next if he performs well before becoming FA after that. Getting and keeping any good players eventually requires spending money regardless of how they are acquired. If the Pirates are going to continue to play the "we can't afford it" card, the whole notion that they plan to win is just a charade.
Fairly obvious that's there plan, GM meeting next week where all front offices are together, and that's when a deal should happen. Trying not to get hopes too high.....it'll likely be adding a #5 or #6 SP.
TNBucs - so you're saying.... and this dovetails with my thinking somewhat... that there are plenty of decent pitchers available.
In MLB, the difference between decent and elite isn't actually that big until it comes to a one game playoff.
They have to bring in two starters. Nothing to do about that. But I feel like they're gonna be comfortable with bullpen games this season as a handful of guys coming on get acclimated. They just can't afford another rash of injuries like last year.
We had a winning record last season in bullpen games and it is my opinion that the Pirates are loaded with pretty good bullpen arms.
The real key to improvement this season is putting Cruz in the middle of the lineup. That guy, man, he just whacks the heck outta the ball. I think you stick a Triolo at second and let him work it out.
By NEXT (25) season, your Skenses, Joneses, Burrowses, etc will make us a team that can function into the playoffs.
This season should be fun though. I would love to see Mike Wazowski take the next step and be able to hit lefties. I also am rooting for Palacios, who sure seems to have the Clutch gene. And I'm looking forward to Cutch coming back and having a Pops type season.... When he's not battling a nagging injury, he's still a pure hitter.
I like bullpen games, but many of those came in September with the (slightly) expanded rosters. I don't think more than one bullpen game per time through the rotation is sustainable. However, piggyback games with, say, Jackson/Falter and Borucki/Mlod where each pairing covers ~6 innings could work. Those four would also be available in the middle day(s) between their piggyback games.
A piggyback approach would also be a good way to work Roansy back into the rotation and could help us get more out of Priester if he can up his velocity with fewer innings expected from him.
The other less discussed issue with bullpen games is you are usually assuming you have 2 pitchers allocated to that day(2 that can go 3 innings?). That essentially leaves you with one less bullpen arm for BAU (regular starter) days. If your starters are going 6 that is not necessarily as big a deal but how many teams really have starters that accomplish that regularly? The more bullpen games you do as a planned event, the more likely you are taxing the bullpen. You can only shuffle so many players to and from AAA these days.
Yes, that can be an issue, but if you're only going with three true starters, then you have 10-11 guys for the pen. I'm thinking along the lines of...
Keller (only the 6-7 non-piggyback relievers available*)
Jackson/Falter (all relievers available)
SP2 (all but Jackson and Falter available)
SP3 (all but Borucki and Mlod available)
Borucki/Mlod (all relievers available)
*Obviously there will be times when Bednar, Holderman, or others aren't available due to pitching the previous two games, which is why I'd like to see us sign/trade for another back-of-the-pen reliever.
Another way I'm thinking about this is that each time through the rotation we need 45 innings covered. If we assume we get 18 innings from the three true starters and 4 each from the piggyback starters (3 in their piggyback game and 1 in another game), then that's 34 of the 45 innings covered. The remaining 6-7 "one-inning" relievers would have to cover only 11 innings over five games, which seems to leave enough innings for when a starter exits early.
Also... I'm very interested in Roansy's lost season. I hope he has figured out how he's going to go forward on accounta that slider's good... like a nice chianti, you need something to pair with it.
what do we have to trade? do we really want to give up pitching prospects when we have no pitching in the majors? does anyone want Nick G? Dangle Termarr?
It's so hard for any prospect to make the jump to the majors that I'd be willing to trade one of Jones, Solometo, Chandler, or Harrington for a proven starter with two or more years of control left (e.g., Cease). I'd also be willing to add a second pitching prospect from the Mueth, Kennedy, Kellington tier and then one of Bae or Gonzales to round out what seems like a pretty good package.
It's a risk, but so is counting on prospects. That said, I think that we should and will sign FAs, just that we may be more likely to get our best offseason acquisition via the trade market.
So Cease signs with the Braves. Why not Yanks or Dodgers? The Pirates (and a few other teams) will never sign a premium free agent. The system is stacked against them and their standing is such that they will always be at the bottom of the pecking order while the aforementioned trio will always be near the top. Money talks. REVENUE SHARING The NFL gives teams a fairly equal chance from year to year. Jets, Giants don't win - no problem. Chargers, Rams are pedestrian. No problem. If Pittsburgh and KC ever reached the World Series the press would kill the match-up. If the Steelers and KC met in the playoffs it would be a huge deal. Same cities, different ground rules.
Agreed, in a Burnett-type way. But I also don't know that I'd spend $13MM for a bounce-back candidate when it has been so long since he's been good (though projection systems have him at 1.5 WAR which is in line with a $13MM deal (for most teams anyway)).
Pretty sad to live in a world where spending $10 million on Austin Hedges, who was never any good, is ok, but $13 million on Severino, who actually could be excellent, is not.
I like the two moves the Reds have made, and overall what the Cards have done. The thing that strikes me about the Reds being aggressive is that we finished only six games behind them, or one game per month. With Cruz coming back and the expectation that we'll get more out of Endy, Davis, Peguero, and others as they adjust to the majors, we should be similarly aggressive.
They made a signing of a RP that will help since the Prates got Dauri Moreta from them for Kevin Newman prior to last season. Moreta 58 IP, 5-2, 3.72, 76K/24BB. Not sure what else they have gotten that will help this year. We are not getting a better SP than what we already have and spent a lot of time developing last year. Keller, Jackson, a 3-5 inning Mlodzinski, and hope for the best out of Ortiz, Priester, Jones, Contreras, Falter, etc.
Martinez and Pagan seem like a good combo to address their main weakness from last season. I'm guessing they're not done adding to their pitching staff.
And yes, I'm sure they'd like to have Moreta back.
It's a coin flip for them. Say the best offer they currently have or get is a team that lands Yamamoto, Snell or Monty. The preferred trade may no longer be there.
If they get the offer they like they should take it, if not hold onto Cease until they do. Trying to drive the price up could backfire on them.
The Cards don't like losing, I think they're going to try and get another top tier arm. With Lynn and Gibson they hedged themselves. They know the market and twenty some million is an acceptable price to have some inning eaters only locked in for one year but there if they need em' 2.
The pirates have a new assistant GM. Amherst ties got her an intern under Huntington years ago. Congrats Sarah now use your analytical skills to give us an edge.
I've felt like our current FO was either slightly behind the curve or grasping at straws for the next big thing. In fact, I haven't felt like we've had a FO ahead of the curve, which is where we need to be, since the 2012-2015 FO. We lost some talent from that era and haven't seemed able to replace it; I'm thinking this is a big step in that direction.
Really happy that Cherington, evidently, saw the need to upgrade the FO.
It's funny to look back and see Huntington ahead of the curve by using metrics like...OPS.
It was more about being ahead of the curve in shifts, pitch framing, pitch usage, ... iirc, things that led us to finding undervalued pitchers and catchers.
All predicated off of statistical analysis that is now commonplace across all 30 teams in a way that it wasn't when he started.
Teams were way , WAY dumber at the beginning of Huntington's Era than they are now.
Right, it's commonplace now because of the success of people like Huntington. Huntington did what he needed to do to get a competitive advantage.
It may not seem fair to say that Cherington and staff need to be better than Huntington was because other teams are smarter, but the reality is that we'll only contend if we're ahead of the curve and there is no evidence that that's been the case over the last four years (or eight years for that matter).
I think we agree that Cherington wasn't the best hire we could have made (shocking, given that our president is a hockey guy), but I'm encouraged that hiring someone like Gelles recognizes the need to get better.
Right on buddy could not agree more.
I like the hire, it's an area where the bucs need to get ahead of the curve instead of coming from behind.
FA pitching is definitely much more expensive than expected (at least imo). Really makes me think BC will wait until bargain binning can begin
Looks like the Bucs are going to start losing games earlier in the evenings this upcoming year. If you tune it at your regular time they may be on their 3rd pitcher.
https://triblive.com/sports/pirates-announce-new-start-times-for-evening-home-games-as-single-game-tickets-go-on-sale/
Wonder if Asa Lacy is worth a rule 5 grab?
With reports coming out the Brewers are looking to extend Jackson Chourio in order to allow him to start the season on roster without the worry of losing a year of control, how does everyone feel about Pirates doing the same with Paul Skenes?
That involves risk, something a rent-seeker like Nutting studiously avoids
I think if the Pirates were interested in doing this with Skenes, they would have tried harder to lock up Keller. I was actually hoping the Pirates would have tried to lock up Oneil Cruz long term last year while he was hurt. If he becomes the star some people think, I don't see any chance of a hometown discount anymore.
Dreker had some insight into the Cruz extension at some point in the last year or so. Appears there are reasons that Bucs should be hesitant. Maybe he can elaborate if he stumbles upon this post.
I wonder if that is because of his agent, because of his health concern, or just still question marks on how he will perform.
We have a source for that other than “scouts?”
Exactly. I also just realized your name isn't Billy Jo Clinton. Not sure what took me so long.
Really don't see what benefit that gets us.
There's still a very good chance Chourio starts the season in the minors, regardless of the contract.
venenzuela and lousiana are two different places to come from
First, he’s not from Louisiana. He spent two years at Air Force Academy and one at LSU.
Second, this isn’t about Skenes, it’s about Nutting and Cherington taking on more risk than they ever have to potentially get a bigger reward than they ever have.
It's a little about Skenes. If he bets on himself with the $9.2M already in his pocket(Chourio signed for $1.8M), he may think the 'normal' arbitration salaries in his last 2 or 3 years will far exceed what he would get in a guarantee right now spread out over several years. I don't see him at this point wanting to give up any free agent years which seems to be part of the Chourio deal and to me is a driving factor in trying to get these types of deals done. I'm with NMR in not being overly worried / focused on draft compensation as a driving factor in getting cost certainly. We already have control certainty.
What reward are we talking about?
Draft compensation.
super underwhelming, in that case.
tres arepas
Aripittas downtown on Cherry Way, gotta check it out
agreed - that place is the bomb - also another good place for arepas next to the salvation army at the beginning of carson street
also tuesday at Cherry restaurant in market square has good briyanni
I would love to go to a pot luck party with the Pirates if they brought items from their homelands. I'd trust Skenes has had some crawdad juice up on that mustache. From Louisiana or not. Dude from Australia could bring vegemite. I'd set it up if I was GM.
You mean, spend money to save money? Bob’s head would explode.
It’s shameful how risk adverse he is in his operational philosophy of this organization.
I'm waiting to see what Jackson gets to set the market but I definitely think it's a good proactive approach for smaller markets.
8/80 i think it is
As I see pitchers coming off the board I am really rooting for the Reds to overpay with prospects for a one year addition (can TB recreate the Archer fleecing with Glasnow - ironic as that seems). While i was hoping for 2024 in my brain I have pushed real contention to 2025 with hopes of a tease of a playoff chance this year. The SP situation is driving that and the reality of how much they will spend this year vs next year. Let the Reds burn some prospect capital this year.
This would put them on the exact same schedule as Huntington's build, which isn't all that impressive given that Cherington inherited a much better system from Huntington than Huntington inherited from Littlefield. Plus, there's not the 20-years-of-losing stigma to deal with and it's easier to make the postseason now. But if that's the best Cherington can do, I'll settle for it as long as the timeline for making the postseason doesn't get extended to '26 or later.
And next year, you’ll push contention to 2026. It’s always next year, right?
I really thought 25 would be the year for contending. 2024 was to set the final piece and push for the playoffs. I still think we can have a good team this year but until I see BC make substantial moves this off-season, I'm losing hope at contending next year.
I'd be happy with a Keller extension, a mid tier rotation piece and at least someone that might add some competition to the 1st base job. I know there's still time but with the Cards and Reds adding, the Cubs trying to go big and the Brewers still making moves after losing their manager and top front office personnel it makes me worry Ben is either hamstrung by Nutting or is playing go fish instead of poker.
Incredibly daunting path to leapfrogging *six* teams in order to make the playoffs when you sit down and look at it. The Marlins and Reds are the only two that I have any confidence in being positioned better for mid-term success.
It really is, I'd throw Cleveland in there with the Marlins and Reds because of their division and their ability to pull pitching out of thin air.
Totally fair comment but do I think they are closer now than 2021 - yes.. closer than 2022 - yes. I assume they will need to develop 80% of 'key' players or more. Oneill lost a year, Hayes took a big jump, need to sign Keller, hope at catcher (Endy and Hank) with some MLB under their belt. Better way for me to word it 'maybe'... if they are going to start trading the Termarrs etc.. and I truly believe they will need to swing trades with that level of prospect or MLB players at some point to fill the 'final' pieces.. I don't feel as justified to do that now as I hope too in a year. Just my opinion.. not giving up on this year at all
They’re closer to contending in the sense that they couldn’t be any farther away from contention in 21 and 22. It’s progress but how much? They gave a slew of plate appearances (over 1,500 in fact) to rookies and they were highly disappointing, putting up less than one WAR between them. Three of the young arms they’re counting on went backwards significantly both in stuff and results.
The team undoubtedly had bad injury luck with Oneil and the TJ surgeries, but the tough fact to face about 23’s improvement is that it was largely tied to existing players: Keller, Hayes, Reynolds, Bednar. They desperately need the young guys to show something, but they have to plow some resources into the FA or trade market to supplement.
If you want to rub your hands with glee at the Reds potentially “overpaying” in prospects/young regulars for Dylan Cease, be my guest. But they’re in that position because their young players have taken giant steps forward that our players haven’t.
Spot on! Player development and coaching is sub-standard. Really hard to believe a championship quality team is forthcoming if they neither develop talent properly or spend to acquire it.
The Reds overpaying (Genesis of this thread) was more of an aside comment that I thought of when I saw Glasnow mentioned as a target. Trust me... not high on my list of things that will make me happy/sad or keep me up at night but I thought it could be truly ironic.
To the real issues / comment - yes they desperately need the young guys to show something - fully agree.
Hey man, I get it. If our team sucks, sometimes all we’ve got is a rival crashing and burning when it looks like they’re on the way up!
would like to see Glasnow cry on the mound in that homerdome
File this under, “Be careful what you wish for.”
Time to start looking at the Rule 5 next week, and CJ Van Eyk would be a nice grab for the Pirates. I'd say he is probably going to be the best available, so the Pirates need to make something happen if they are interested. Still like the very quiet signing of an excellent RH CF in Celestino.
Cole Wilcox would be one of my favorites to snag from the Rays.
So two years ago the team signed zero free agents, last year spent around $30 million if the trade for Choi is counted, I think is gonna be a wait and see what’s left after all the big boys spend their money, I’ll say late December before we see any, if any additions.
prediction contest
$6.75 Santana
$6.75 Cutch
$4 Hill
$4 Cueto
$8 left handed reliever
Hate it, hate it, so you are probably right minus Hill.
the starters they acquire, they only want them to pitch until June so they dont take innings away from rookies and guys coming back from tommy john
BTW, they could do the same by giving those innings to Priester, Contreras, Ortiz, Jackson, Falter, Kranick without blowing $12 millions, same shitty results and save money.
that is the conclusion I am coming to
That’s the way they think, so I could see that, and then to pacify us fans they will extend Keller.....
Cueto sounds like a good option to pitch in April and May
Coming back from injuries, looks like he´d cost a $2mil dollar special
There are plenty of reports from this morning out of Japan and Korea saying Thomas Hatch has signed to play with the Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan, with one article saying they paid a decent price to get his release from the Pirates
More money to put towards FA!
what is the first day we can put Burrows, Brubaker and Oviedo back on the 60dl?
Don't know the exact date but it's around the start of spring training every year
this is going to make yinz earz hurt when you read it but i would like to take the opportunity to show the scoreboard since the Pirates/Mets trade a few years ago:
2023 Endy: 186 ab´s, 3hr, .220avg, .612ops
2023 Lucchesi: 9gs, 46.2ip, 2.89era, 32k´s
I'm not real worried about whether Lucchesi has some success as a 30 year old one year away from free agency vs. a 23 year possible catcher of the future in his first year in the bigs. No reason to think Lucchesi won't have some success.
You're not questioning _the_ trade that we most like to cite as evidence that Cherington can find value on the trade market, are you?
He's forgetting that Lucchesi's line if he was with the Pirates would probably have been
9gs 46.2ip 8.29era 32k's 39walks
And he’d be throwing 88mph.
and be out for a year and a half because he has to have tommy john surgery
Who might be cheap enough for our Buccos to sign? I’m thinking $10m is the max they’ll go. Maybe Hyun-Jin Ryu, Alex Wood or Frankie Montas
In this market, I’m not sure $10 MM gets you those guys.
Montas has basically missed 2 seasons. Wood only started half the time and threw less than 100 innings. Ryu is 36 and coming off TJ. Maybe Erick Fedde coming back from Korea? If they can’t afford a couple of these kinds of guys, it’s just sad lol.
Well, Severino was fairly awful last year and got $13 MM. Steamer has him projected at 1.5 WAR, so that tells me teams are paying for the WAR projection. Montas for example, is projected at 1.8 WAR. I could see him getting at least close to as much as Severino.
fair enough! the market has been crazy so far, but i think the money dries up eventually. maybe BC can pick up a bargain in February/March
precicely
Mackey says that Cherington keeps emphasizing trades which makes me think that they're not willing to pay what it takes to sign decent FAs because there is plenty of SP talent available. The questions then become
1. Are we willing to part with the type of prospects that will bring back impact talent?
2. How do other teams value our system?
Aren't we forgetting that even if the Pirates trade for a decent player and give up prospects to do so they still have to pay him? Cease for example will probably get $8-9 million in arbitration this year and more the next if he performs well before becoming FA after that. Getting and keeping any good players eventually requires spending money regardless of how they are acquired. If the Pirates are going to continue to play the "we can't afford it" card, the whole notion that they plan to win is just a charade.
$8mil is a steal for any starting pitcher these days
Fairly obvious that's there plan, GM meeting next week where all front offices are together, and that's when a deal should happen. Trying not to get hopes too high.....it'll likely be adding a #5 or #6 SP.
I am so regularly disappointed with the Winter Meetings that I'm also trying not to get my hopes up :).
Were the Pirates even invited? Seems like a waste of a suite.
TNBucs - so you're saying.... and this dovetails with my thinking somewhat... that there are plenty of decent pitchers available.
In MLB, the difference between decent and elite isn't actually that big until it comes to a one game playoff.
They have to bring in two starters. Nothing to do about that. But I feel like they're gonna be comfortable with bullpen games this season as a handful of guys coming on get acclimated. They just can't afford another rash of injuries like last year.
We had a winning record last season in bullpen games and it is my opinion that the Pirates are loaded with pretty good bullpen arms.
The real key to improvement this season is putting Cruz in the middle of the lineup. That guy, man, he just whacks the heck outta the ball. I think you stick a Triolo at second and let him work it out.
By NEXT (25) season, your Skenses, Joneses, Burrowses, etc will make us a team that can function into the playoffs.
This season should be fun though. I would love to see Mike Wazowski take the next step and be able to hit lefties. I also am rooting for Palacios, who sure seems to have the Clutch gene. And I'm looking forward to Cutch coming back and having a Pops type season.... When he's not battling a nagging injury, he's still a pure hitter.
I like bullpen games, but many of those came in September with the (slightly) expanded rosters. I don't think more than one bullpen game per time through the rotation is sustainable. However, piggyback games with, say, Jackson/Falter and Borucki/Mlod where each pairing covers ~6 innings could work. Those four would also be available in the middle day(s) between their piggyback games.
A piggyback approach would also be a good way to work Roansy back into the rotation and could help us get more out of Priester if he can up his velocity with fewer innings expected from him.
The other less discussed issue with bullpen games is you are usually assuming you have 2 pitchers allocated to that day(2 that can go 3 innings?). That essentially leaves you with one less bullpen arm for BAU (regular starter) days. If your starters are going 6 that is not necessarily as big a deal but how many teams really have starters that accomplish that regularly? The more bullpen games you do as a planned event, the more likely you are taxing the bullpen. You can only shuffle so many players to and from AAA these days.
Yes, that can be an issue, but if you're only going with three true starters, then you have 10-11 guys for the pen. I'm thinking along the lines of...
Keller (only the 6-7 non-piggyback relievers available*)
Jackson/Falter (all relievers available)
SP2 (all but Jackson and Falter available)
SP3 (all but Borucki and Mlod available)
Borucki/Mlod (all relievers available)
*Obviously there will be times when Bednar, Holderman, or others aren't available due to pitching the previous two games, which is why I'd like to see us sign/trade for another back-of-the-pen reliever.
Another way I'm thinking about this is that each time through the rotation we need 45 innings covered. If we assume we get 18 innings from the three true starters and 4 each from the piggyback starters (3 in their piggyback game and 1 in another game), then that's 34 of the 45 innings covered. The remaining 6-7 "one-inning" relievers would have to cover only 11 innings over five games, which seems to leave enough innings for when a starter exits early.
Also... I'm very interested in Roansy's lost season. I hope he has figured out how he's going to go forward on accounta that slider's good... like a nice chianti, you need something to pair with it.
what do we have to trade? do we really want to give up pitching prospects when we have no pitching in the majors? does anyone want Nick G? Dangle Termarr?
It's so hard for any prospect to make the jump to the majors that I'd be willing to trade one of Jones, Solometo, Chandler, or Harrington for a proven starter with two or more years of control left (e.g., Cease). I'd also be willing to add a second pitching prospect from the Mueth, Kennedy, Kellington tier and then one of Bae or Gonzales to round out what seems like a pretty good package.
It's a risk, but so is counting on prospects. That said, I think that we should and will sign FAs, just that we may be more likely to get our best offseason acquisition via the trade market.
So Cease signs with the Braves. Why not Yanks or Dodgers? The Pirates (and a few other teams) will never sign a premium free agent. The system is stacked against them and their standing is such that they will always be at the bottom of the pecking order while the aforementioned trio will always be near the top. Money talks. REVENUE SHARING The NFL gives teams a fairly equal chance from year to year. Jets, Giants don't win - no problem. Chargers, Rams are pedestrian. No problem. If Pittsburgh and KC ever reached the World Series the press would kill the match-up. If the Steelers and KC met in the playoffs it would be a huge deal. Same cities, different ground rules.
Cease isn’t a free agent, Bob. They’d have to trade for him.
Severino would’ve been a good fit at that price point for Pirates. IMHO, one of the better bounce back candidates on the market this winter.
Agreed, in a Burnett-type way. But I also don't know that I'd spend $13MM for a bounce-back candidate when it has been so long since he's been good (though projection systems have him at 1.5 WAR which is in line with a $13MM deal (for most teams anyway)).
Pretty sad to live in a world where spending $10 million on Austin Hedges, who was never any good, is ok, but $13 million on Severino, who actually could be excellent, is not.
I think it was $5 million.
Like it matters!
Add Nick Martinez to the Reds. Two years, 26 mil.
more chance Bauer slips to us
Bauer isn’t pitching in MLB this year, or any other year, until he begs for forgiveness. And I mean full on ugly cry on his knees kinda begging.
Which I personally don’t ever see happening.
I like the two moves the Reds have made, and overall what the Cards have done. The thing that strikes me about the Reds being aggressive is that we finished only six games behind them, or one game per month. With Cruz coming back and the expectation that we'll get more out of Endy, Davis, Peguero, and others as they adjust to the majors, we should be similarly aggressive.
They made a signing of a RP that will help since the Prates got Dauri Moreta from them for Kevin Newman prior to last season. Moreta 58 IP, 5-2, 3.72, 76K/24BB. Not sure what else they have gotten that will help this year. We are not getting a better SP than what we already have and spent a lot of time developing last year. Keller, Jackson, a 3-5 inning Mlodzinski, and hope for the best out of Ortiz, Priester, Jones, Contreras, Falter, etc.
Martinez and Pagan seem like a good combo to address their main weakness from last season. I'm guessing they're not done adding to their pitching staff.
And yes, I'm sure they'd like to have Moreta back.
He made a real difference for the Pirates last year.
Maybe his pitch shape combined with velocity is the ideal pitcher she points at to aquire, all else be darned.
Doubt it, it's a dyeing art.
It's a coin flip for them. Say the best offer they currently have or get is a team that lands Yamamoto, Snell or Monty. The preferred trade may no longer be there.
If they get the offer they like they should take it, if not hold onto Cease until they do. Trying to drive the price up could backfire on them.
The Cards don't like losing, I think they're going to try and get another top tier arm. With Lynn and Gibson they hedged themselves. They know the market and twenty some million is an acceptable price to have some inning eaters only locked in for one year but there if they need em' 2.